ataa citywire april 2010
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TRANSCRIPT
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund
Luxembourg, 22nd April 2010
Gary Saidler, Client Portfolio ManagerKatrin Ostermeier, Business Development Director
22
This document is for investment professionals only. The content is not approved for use with retail investors or pension scheme members.
Page 3
Europe25%
Europe29%
Europe22%
Europe7%
Europe-1%
Europe21%
Europe37%
Europe-18%
Europe-32%
Europe13%
N. America29%
Asia Pac84%
Property11%
UK Credit7%
Global FI17%
Em Mkts56%
Em Mkts26%
Japan45%
Em Mkts33%
Em Mkts66%
UK Credit10%
Property7%
Property10%
Asia Pac44%
Property19%
Em Mkts35%
Asia Pac30%
World25%
Japan47%
O/S Govt8%
O/S Govt5%
UK Credit9%
World34%
World15%
UK Credit15%
Cash5%
Cash4%
O/S Govt8%
N. America30%
Asia Pac27%
World21%
UK Equity14%
World25%
Global FI3%
Global FI2%
Cash3%
Japan23%
UK Equity13%
UK Equity22%
Property18%
Global FI14%
UK Equity24%
Em Mkts-2%
Em Mkts-6%
N. America11%
Property19%
UK Equity17%
Property12%
N. America23%
UK Equity-6%
Asia Pac-4%
Asia Pac-14%
UK Equity21%
Japan11%
World10%
N. America7%
O/S Govt9%
Property14%
N. America-12%
N. America-12%
Japan-19%
Global FI13%
Global FI9%
UK Credit9%
Japan7.35%
Cash6%
Cash4%
World-13%
UK Equity-13%
World-20%
Property11%
Asia Pac7%
N. America-7%
Global FI7%
Japan-9%
UK Credit0.1%
Japan-20%
World-17%
N. America-22%
UK Credit0.8%
UK Credit7%
Cash4%
Cash4%
Asia Pac-9%
O/S Govt-1%
Em Mkts-31%
UK Equity-23%
Cash3%
O/S Govt5%
O/S Govt4%
UK Credit0.8%
Em Mkts-25%
Global FI-5%
Asia Pac-36%
Japan-19%
O/S Govt2%
Cash4%
Global FI-4%
O/S Govt0.7%
Em Mkts40%
Asia Pac37%
World10%
Global FI9%
N. America8%
UK Equity5%
Cash5%
O/S Govt4%
UK Credit0.4%
Property-5%
Japan-10%
N. America29%
Asia Pac84%
Property11%
UK Credit7%
Global FI17%
Em Mkts56%
Em Mkts26%
Japan45%
Em Mkts33%
Europe25%
Em Mkts66%
UK Credit10%
Property7%
Property10%
Asia Pac44%
Property19%
Em Mkts35%
Asia Pac30%
World25%
Japan47%
O/S Govt8%
O/S Govt5%
UK Credit9%
World34%
World15%
Europe29%
Europe22%
UK Credit15%
Europe37%
Cash5%
Cash4%
O/S Govt8%
N. America30%
Europe13%
Asia Pac27%
World21%
UK Equity14%
World25%
Global FI3%
Global FI2%
Cash3%
Japan23%
UK Equity13%
UK Equity22%
Property18%
Global FI14%
UK Equity24%
Europe-1%
Em Mkts-2%
Em Mkts-6%
Europe21%
N. America11%
Property19%
UK Equity17%
Property12%
N. America23%
UK Equity-6%
Asia Pac-4%
Asia Pac-14%
UK Equity21%
Japan11%
World10%
N. America7%
O/S Govt9%
Property14%
N. America-12%
N. America-12%
Japan-19%
Global FI13%
Global FI9%
UK Credit9%
Japan7.35%
Cash6%
Cash4%
World-13%
UK Equity-13%
World-20%
Property11%
Asia Pac7%
N. America-7%
Global FI7%
Japan-9%
UK Credit0.1%
Japan-20%
World-17%
N. America-22%
UK Credit0.8%
UK Credit7%
Cash4%
Cash4%
Asia Pac-9%
O/S Govt-1%
Em Mkts-31%
Europe-18%
UK Equity-23%
Cash3%
O/S Govt5%
O/S Govt4%
UK Credit0.8%
Em Mkts-25%
Global FI-5%
Asia Pac-36%
Japan-19%
Europe-32%
O/S Govt2%
Cash4%
Global FI-4%
O/S Govt0.7%
Em Mkts40%
Asia Pac37%
World10%
Global FI9%
N. America8%
Europe7%
UK Equity5%
Cash5%
O/S Govt4%
UK Credit0.4%
Property-5%
Japan-10%
Asset Allocation: Harder than it looks!
50%Differencein 2007
Europe29%
Europe22%
Europe7%
Europe-1%
Europe21%
Europe37%
Europe25%
Europe-18%
Europe-32%
Europe13%
Em Mkts40%
Japan-10%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
44
Overview of tactical asset allocation strategies
Dynamic strategy capturing short term opportunities across the asset spectrumEquities/bonds/currencies/other e.g. propertyUK, US, Europe, Japan and AsiaBalanced portfolio of relative value and directional trades
Diversified long/short positions in highly liquid and cost effective derivatives e.g.Equity/bond index futuresCurrency forwardsProperty swap
The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.
Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity setHighly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set
55
Absolute Tactical Asset Allocation track record
Ucits III Sicav launched 26 January 2006AUM – over £700m
High risk-adjusted returns**Fund return 10.9% p.a. net since launchFund historical volatility of 8.1% p.a. since launch
Process applied since 1999Across a variety of mandates targeting different returnsAchieved 94% target return since launch*
*From 1 January ‘99 to 31 March ‘10.
** Source: Lipper as at 31 March 2010, volatility calculated from monthly returns sourced from Lipper/Hindsight. Performance shown net of fees for I share class.
Past performance is not a guide to the future.
High risk-adjusted returnsHigh risk-adjusted returns
66
Improved risk return profile
Risk
Ret
urn
Risk-return profile with TAA
Risk-return profile without TAA
Initial portfolio with optimised strategic allocation
Improved return expectations for the same level of risk
Improved risk profile for an identical level of return
A valuable additional source of returns
FTSE All Share-0.30
MSCI World -0.37
FTSE World Europe ex UK -0.30
Lehman Global Agg -0.09
FTA All Stocks -0.05
1 Month Libor -0.01
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Correlations uses quarterly ‘alpha’ performance data from UK pooled pension fund TAA Overlay (Q1’99-Q2’05) and standalone GTAA mandates (Q3’05-Q1’10). Index returns are in local currency.
77
Key decision makers for this fund
The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) uses experience and judgement to identify and weigh opportunities presented by our research
Able to draw on the talent and insight of the wider strategy team
All roles 100% dedicated to the management of asset allocation funds
Source: Aviva Investors 31 December 2009
An experienced and stable teamAn experienced and stable team
Adrian Jarvis
Fund Manager
Joined industry in 1990With Aviva Investors since 2000
Steve Cleal
Fund Manager
Joined industry in 1987With Aviva Investors since 1987
Hassan Johaadien
Head of Tactical Asset Allocation Research
Joined industry in 1995With Aviva Investors since 2005
88
Process supported by large team of specialists
Fund Managers
Adrian Jarvis*Head of Strategy20 years experience
Steve Cleal*Head of Asset Allocation Fund Management22 years experience
Economics Strategic Asset Allocation
Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Analytics &
Research Implementation
Stewart RobertsonSenior Economist
(UK & Europe)
Mirko CardinaleHead of Strategic Asset Allocation
Research
Niral Shukla
TAA Modelling & Performance
Analyst
Haydn Davies
Currency Strategist
Jonathan Abrahams
Head of MAF Implementation
Hassan Johaadien*
Head of Tactical Asset Allocation
Research
David Hillier
Senior Economist(Americas)
Sergio Ferreira
Asset Allocation Analyst
Maulshree SaroliyaStrategic Asset
Allocation Analyst
Carmen MagnessMAF
Implementation
Anna Greaves
Research Assistant
Supriya Menon
Macro Strategist
Ying JiangAsset Allocation
Analyst
Nichola GuinnMAF
Implementation
Bruno SerdouraStrategic Asset
Allocation Analyst
Amien Johaadien
Systems Developer
Gary Saidler
Client Portfolio Manager – Asset
Allocation
Helge Kostka
Head of CPM –Investment Solutions
* Member of the Asset Allocation Committee
Andrzej PiochStrategic Asset
Allocation Analyst
Sukh SanghaMAF
Implementation
Shamik Dhar
Senior EconomistAsia
99
Investment process – key stages
ImplementationImplementationPortfolio selectionPortfolio selection
Optimalportfolioanalysis
Optimalportfolioanalysis
Forecasting returns
Forecasting returns
Investment scenarioanalysis
Economic scenarioanalysis
Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputsCombines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs
1010
Forecasting returns
Source: Aviva Investors 29 March 2010
Profile for next 2 years for:GDPInflationInterest ratesExportsCorporate profitsetc
Economic fundamentals
Example scenarios:
Two-Speed World40%
Policy Error25%
Recovery20%
Liquidity Abounds15%
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Other
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Other
Return forecasts
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Other
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Credit
Currencies
Equities
Bonds
Other assets
Return forecasts
Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenarioOutput: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario
1111
Decision 15 September 2008: Adding value when our uncertainty is at its highest
Expected impact:+6%
Expected impact:+2%
Expected impact:+3%
Positionscombined
Expected impact:+6.3%
Expected impact:-1.4%
Expected impact:+1.5%
Idea 2: interest rates
decrease
Expected impact:-0.4%
Expected impact:+3.4%
Expected impact:+1.6%
Idea 1: credit spreads
tighten
DepressionRecoveryGlobal hard landing
We select portfolios to add value across all scenariosWe select portfolios to add value across all scenarios
Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008
50% 30% 20%
Page 12
Aviva Investors Asset Allocation –07 April 2010
Relative risk-adjusted size of active positionsImplementation for ATAA Fund
Libor +15% p.a. net target
Equity Market Direction0%
Bond Relative Value20%
Currency23%
Others12%
Equity Relative Value18%
Bond Market Direction27%
+20%+10%
-45%
-10%+10%
+5%+5%
-20%
+15%
-60%-80%
+5%-50%
+50%-35%
-50%+75%
-40%-5%
+20%+5%+5%+10%
-20%-40%
+25%+5%
+10%-100%US 2Y Bond
UK IPD SwapCADAUDCNYEURJPYNZD
KRWPLNCHFSEKGBP
JP 10Y BondUS 10Y BondIT 10Y Bond
GE 10Y BondCN 10Y BondAU 10Y BondUK 10Y Bond
10Y SONIA SwapSingapore
KOSPIHang Seng
ASX 200S&P 500
TOPIXDAX
Euro Stoxx 50
Equities +0% Bonds -190% Currency +0% Other -90%
1313
Value at Risk
Stress Testing
Contribution to Risk
(*) Estimated event start date not always clearly identifiable.
Independent, centralised risk management teamDaily monitoring, analysis and control
Value at Risk ensures regulatory limits met daily using proprietary modelStress testing to analyse impact of extreme eventsContribution to risk broken out for individual asset and asset classes Daily monitoring and a formal monthly meeting with fund managers
Source: Aviva Investors 3 March 2010
4.15-2.510.970.2615th Sep 2008Lehman Bros Bankruptcy
3.032.840.701.0620th June 2007Global Credit Crisis (2007/08)
-0.612.650.121.1417th July 2002WorldCom/Enron
0.69-4.22-1.862.1411th September 2001Sep 11th 2001 (WTC)
-18.67-2.09-2.31-0.6114th April 2000Dot-Com
34.311.18-0.360.4631st August 1998Russian Crisis/LTCM
-15.90-1.34-1.72-1.0927th October 1997Global Crash
-31.34-2.14-2.06-0.432nd July 1997Asian Crisis
3.30-3.27-2.78-1.7619th October 1987Black Monday
1 Year1 Month1 Week1 DayDate (*)Event
1414
Tactical asset allocation summary
Fund design offers high risk-adjusted returns in any market environment
Diversification benefits when mixed with conventional assets
Scenario analysis offers capital protection across uncertain investment environment
Team of dedicated asset allocation specialists offers depth of experience and breadth of skills
Appendix
1616
Example: summary of return optimisation inputs
Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns
The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.
Two-Speed World
Liquidity Abounds Recovery Policy Error Weighted
Weight: 40% 20% 20% 20%Obs: 2000 1000 1000 1000UK eq 7.3% 14.5% 19.0% -17.0% 6.2%US eq 8.0% 16.0% 21.0% -19.0% 6.8%EU eq 3.0% 21.0% 21.0% -24.0% 4.8%JP eq 16.0% 24.0% 24.0% -29.0% 10.2%STI 14.5% 25.5% 40.5% -26.5% 13.7%
HangSeng 13.4% 22.4% 35.4% -23.6% 12.2%KOSPI 14.0% 23.5% 46.5% -25.0% 14.6%TAIEX 15.3% 38.8% 41.3% -34.7% 15.2%
Aust_SPI 9.0% 14.0% 27.5% -22.5% 7.4%IPD Swap 2012 10.3% 18.3% 28.8% -22.0% 9.1%
EURJPY 2.5% 5.4% 7.2% -7.2% 2.1%UK 10y bo 3.8% 3.8% -7.9% 3.8% 1.4%US 10y bo 4.7% 4.7% -7.5% 4.7% 2.3%EU 10y bo 2.6% 2.6% -5.1% 2.6% 1.1%JP 10y bo 2.0% 2.0% -2.6% 2.0% 1.1%AU 10y bo 2.3% -1.0% -4.2% 2.3% 0.3%
1717
Example: optimisation and portfolio selection
Initial Template
Two-Speed World
Optimal
Liquidity Abounds Optimal
Recovery Optimal
Policy Error Optimal
Returns Blended Optimal
Holdings Blended Optimal
AAC Proposal
Equities +84% +55% +69% -160% +64% +36% +15% +15%Govt Bonds -120% -60% +5% -302% -103% -283% -245% -190% -70%
Other
Returns UnderTwo-Speed World +6.2% +21.9% +17.4% +8.4% -12.9% +16.3% +20.2% +6.3% +0.1%Liquidity Abounds +6.1% +28.2% +38.9% +8.5% -21.1% +24.3% +26.6% +9.1% +3.0%
Recovery +16.4% +24.4% +15.5% +53.2% -32.8% +41.0% +27.1% +22.3% +5.9%Policy Error -6.6% -27.8% -25.3% -22.9% +37.1% -20.4% -18.4% -6.2% +0.4%
Weighted Average +5.0% +10.9% +9.5% +9.6% -5.6% +13.3% +12.9% +6.8% +1.8%
Expected Volatility +12.4% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +13.8% +1.4%Information Ratio 0.41 0.49
Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns
The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.
1818
Our credentials
Experience
Key decision makers with over 50 years combined experience in TAA
Stable team of 20 dedicated asset allocation specialists
Process
Unique blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis
Focus on capital preservation
Performance
No down years in 11 years
Performance particularly strong in times of market stress
1919
Fund performance since launchAviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (GBP)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
26/0
1/20
06
13/0
3/20
06
26/0
4/20
06
09/0
6/20
06
25/0
7/20
06
07/0
9/20
06
23/1
0/20
06
06/1
2/20
06
19/0
1/20
07
06/0
3/20
07
19/0
4/20
07
04/0
6/20
07
18/0
7/20
07
31/0
8/20
07
16/1
0/20
07
29/1
1/20
07
14/0
1/20
08
27/0
2/20
08
11/0
4/20
08
27/0
5/20
08
10/0
7/20
08
25/0
8/20
08
08/1
0/20
08
21/1
1/20
08
06/0
1/20
09
19/0
2/20
09
06/0
4/20
09
20/0
5/20
09
03/0
7/20
09
18/0
8/20
09
01/1
0/20
09
16/1
1/20
09
30/1
2/20
09
12/0
2/20
10
30/0
3/20
10
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I(MF) LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN)
1 Month %
3 Months%
6 Months%
YTD %
1 Year%
3 Year % p.a.
5 Year % p.a.
Since Launch %
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I(MF)
1.23 3.60 6.66 3.60 9.29 31.39 - 53.80
LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN) 0.05 0.13 0.26 0.13 0.62 11.51 - 18.09
Source: Aviva Investors/Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in GBPFigures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
2020
Fund performance since launchAviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund EUR hedged
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
28/08/2007 26/11/2007 22/02/2008 22/05/2008 20/08/2008 18/11/2008 16/02/2009 15/05/2009 13/08/2009 11/11/2009 09/02/2010
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I EUR Hedge (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)
1 Month %
3 Months %
6 Months %
YTD %
1 Year% p.a.
3 Year % p.a.
5 Year % p.a.
Since Launch %
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I EUR Hedge (MF) 1.26 3.69 6.43 3.69 9.22 - - 21.00
EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.11 0.62 - - 7.22
Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR. Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
2121
Fund performance since launchAviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 Fund (EUR)
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
06/12/2007 05/03/2008 03/06/2008 01/09/2008 28/11/2008 26/02/2009 27/05/2009 25/08/2009 23/11/2009 19/02/2010
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 I EUR (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)
1 Month %
3 Months %
6 Months%
YTD %
1 Year%
3 Year % p.a.
5 Year % p.a.
Since Launch %
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 I EUR (MF)
0.30 0.95 1.93 0.95 2.36 - - 8.38
EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.11 0.62 - - 5.95
Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR. Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
Scenarios focus on evolution of the global recovery
Aviva Investors Investment Strategy Team - investment scenarios and positioning – 07th April 2010
Global synchronised recovery gathers pace. Past cycles show sharpest upturns follow sharpest downturns –this was worst recession in 80 years with largest output gap.
Impact of policy stimulus leads to upside growth surprise in US. Employment recovers Q1, supporting housing and consumption.
Global imbalances build – US current account deteriorates, EM economies resume export-led growth model.
Profits beat expectations; equity rally continues, albeit with sporadic sell-offs on rate hike fears.
Growing risk central banks behind the curve on inflation; bonds sell off; $ / commodities rally.
Recovery20%Two-Speed World
40%
The sub-par recovery plods along in US/EU/UK. Financial system in recovery with ongoing deleveraging, private credit weak, consumers wary. Risk of further US housing weakness. Asia / EM enjoy strong cyclical recovery, driving global growth forward. Strong mix of loose policy, commodity strength, improving domestic demand with no credit overhang.Equity boost from strong profits, esp. where currencies cheap, but re-rating phase over.Support from QE/Banks/Investor demand helps Treasury yields remain range bound. Credit spreads narrow modestly.US$ remains weak, with counter-trend rallies. Yen vulnerable once Fed fund hikes in view.
Policymakers have taken extreme measures to prevent a financial meltdown / global depression. Asset markets could be adversely affected through a number of channels:
Withdrawal of QE - may cause bond market volatility.
Interest rate hikes / premature fiscal tightening -may create fear of double dip recession.
Protectionism - may trigger trade war / geopolitical instability.
Risk aversion rises - equities, credit, bonds suffer; cash & gold provide safe havens.
Policy Error25%
Variant of Two-Speed World –Asia / EM policymakers refuse to allow currencies to appreciate, leading to excess credit creation. Bubbles develop in Asia / EM Real Estate + Equities.
Risk of US Treasury bubble driven by central bank recycling of savings.
Structural commodity story is still intact; combines with excess liquidity to push commodity complex still higher in 2010, particularly for those with supply constraints.
Risk of 2011 recession if oil prices approach 2008 peak.
Liquidity Abounds15%
2323
Asset allocation stance reflects best positioning for next 6-9 months against all scenarios plus short-term timing opportunities
Scenarios and Positioning – Current rationales 7 April 2010
Inflows support UK commercial property; Long swap position held.
Short US 2Y Notes; market likely to start pricing in more rate rises.
Macro fund holds:
-Long gold; inflation / deflation hedge .
-Short Eurostoxx50 correlation; position for greater stock selection in 2010.
Highlights:
AUD, SEK - process favours rate hike currencies.
KRW – value, Asian appreciation.
EUR – still expensive, poor econ. outlook, sovereign debt crises.
JPY – expensive, potential for more QE.
Japanese nominal bonds are thematic short given debt trap and demographics.
Italian BTP spread over Bunds expected to widen should EU funding concerns resurface.
Swap spreads overly pessimistic about risk of UK government default.
Upside risks to AU + CN yields.
End of QE + stronger data to put upward pressure on US yields.
Short duration. Next move for short rates is up and phase of cycle is bond -ve. Low short rates & deleveraging creating sovereign demand.
Yield risks on upside from high issuance & specific sovereign-related credit concerns. Offsetting demand from QE now ending.
Econ. fundamentals more supportive of Asian markets.
Europe least favoured given economic strains and expensive euro. Japan offers short-term opportunity given strong flows and expected Yen weakness.
Fund tilt towards markets that are more robust to Policy Error.
Moderate gains for equities expected in H110 under first three scenarios driven by profits, not re-ratings.
Policy Error scenario would be very negative for equities.
Short-term technicals show mkt is overbought.
Neutral position for now.
OtherCurrencyBond Relative Value
Bond Market Direction
Equity Relative Value
Equity Market Direction
Inflows support UK commercial property; Long swap position held.
Short US 2Y Notes; market likely to start pricing in more rate rises.
Macro fund holds:
-Long gold; inflation / deflation hedge .
-Short Eurostoxx50 correlation; position for greater stock selection in 2010.
Highlights:
AUD, SEK - process favours rate hike currencies.
KRW – value, Asian appreciation.
EUR – still expensive, poor econ. outlook, sovereign debt crises.
JPY – expensive, potential for more QE.
Japanese nominal bonds are thematic short given debt trap and demographics.
Italian BTP spread over Bunds expected to widen should EU funding concerns resurface.
Swap spreads overly pessimistic about risk of UK government default.
Upside risks to AU + CN yields.
End of QE + stronger data to put upward pressure on US yields.
Short duration. Next move for short rates is up and phase of cycle is bond -ve. Low short rates & deleveraging creating sovereign demand.
Yield risks on upside from high issuance & specific sovereign-related credit concerns. Offsetting demand from QE now ending.
Econ. fundamentals more supportive of Asian markets.
Europe least favoured given economic strains and expensive euro. Japan offers short-term opportunity given strong flows and expected Yen weakness.
Fund tilt towards markets that are more robust to Policy Error.
Moderate gains for equities expected in H110 under first three scenarios driven by profits, not re-ratings.
Policy Error scenario would be very negative for equities.
Short-term technicals show mkt is overbought.
Neutral position for now.
OtherCurrencyBond Relative Value
Bond Market Direction
Equity Relative Value
Equity Market Direction
Page 24
Scenarios and positioning - summary of recent changes -07 April 2010
The % changes shown are on the template for funds targeting 15% p.a net outperformance (ATAA, GMAA and Global Macro).For our funds with other levels of target outperformance positions are scaled accordingly, e.g. ATAA5 changes are ¼ of these.
Date Change (Global Macro) Rationale
10-Feb-10 Reduce size of Eurostoxx short by 30% Market oversold, risk that some relief on Greek deficit issues causes snap back. "Liquidity Abounds" from 20% to 15%, "Policy Error" from 20% to 25% China tightening and EU weakness changes the probability distribution.
15-Feb-10 Buy 12% S&P; sell 12% Eurostoxx Near term risks of a sharp relief rally in Europe have receded. Profits in US to exceed euro profitsSell 100% US 2yr bonds Rate rises in the US likely to exceed profile discounted by short rate curve
Buy 15% AUD; sell 15% CAD AUD has fallen recently and has interest rate support and relatively strong economyBuy 6% EUR; sell 5% GBP; sell 1% JPY Reflect GBP's recent rise against the euro
Buy 10% SEK; sell 5% NOK; sell 5% GBP Trade following currency model output22-Feb-10 Sell 10% Eurostoxx, 10% S&P500 and 10% Australia SPI Markets up strongly over past few weeks and are no longer oversold
Sell 5% NOK and 5% AUD; Buy 5% CAD and 5% PLN Trade following currency model output24-Feb-10 Sell 60% BTP bonds; buy 15% German 10y and 15% UK 10y Italian bonds expected to suffer greater funding concerns than Germany and UK
Buy 5% SEK and 5% CAD; sell 5% NOK and 5% GBP Trade following currency model output01-Mar-10 Buy 5% SEK; sell 5% GBP SEK well supported by fundamantals. Concerns over minority government to weigh on GBP02-Mar-10 Buy 10yr gilts; sell 10yr SONIA Swap spreads overly pessimistic about risk of UK government default08-Mar-10 Buy 5% CAD and 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK and 5% NZD Trade following currency model output
Buy 5% AUD and 5% USD; Sell 10% JPY JPY is overvalued and could suffer if risk appetite increases10-Mar-10 Buy 10% DAX & 15% FTSE100; sell 5% Taiwan & 5% TOPIX Temporary fix for Greek sovereign crisis, weak £ benefits UK, equity mix protects against Policy Error
Buy 45% Bunds; Sell 15% Gilts & 50% Aus bonds & 50% Can bonds Upside risks to Aus, Can yields; use Bunds to fully offset BTP short now22-Mar-10 Sell 5% Eurostoxx Lock in some profit following recent equity bounce
Buy 10% USD; Sell 10% JPY USD fundamentlaly cheap vs JPY and supported by stronger economic momentumBuy 5% CHF; Sell 5% EUR Trade following currency model output
29-Mar-10 Buy 5% USD; Sell 5% JPY Trade following currency model outputBuy 50% JP 10y, buy 15% Aus 10y and Eur 10y; Sell 80% US 10y End of QE to put upward pressure on US yields. Take profit on Jap and Aus short bond positions
06-Apr-10 Sell 10% FTSE100 Neutralise equity long after strong rally. UK market overbought Buy 10% TOPIX, Sell 10% Eurostoxx Japanese equities to receive support from weakening Yen. Market also relatively cheap
07-Apr-10 Buy 5% GBP; Sell 5% JPY Sterling very cheap and election likely to bring some fiscal realismBuy 5% CAD; Sell 5% EUR Canadian economy strengthening, rates likely to rise more quickly than in EuropeBuy 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK Trade following currency model output
2525
Relative risk-adjusted size of active positionsImplementation for Absolute TAA 5 Fund
Libor +3.75% p.a. net target
Aviva Investors Asset Allocation –29 March 2010
-25%+3%
+6%+4%
-4%-5%
+1%+1%+1%
+4%-3%
-10%
+19%-13%
-9%+13%
-13%+1%
-20%-15%
-9%
+3%
+1%+1%
+3%-3%
-9%+3%+3%
+3%
US 2Y BondUK IPD Swap
AUDCNYEURJPYNZD
KRWPLNNOKCHFSEKGBP
JP 10Y BondUS 10Y BondIT 10Y Bond
GE 10Y BondCN 10Y BondAU 10Y BondUK 10Y Bond
10Y SONIA SwapSingapore
KOSPIHang Seng
ASX 200S&P 500
TOPIXDAX
Euro Stoxx 50FTSE 100
Equities +3% Bonds -48% Currency +0% Other -23%
Bond Relative Value21%
Currency21%
Others13%
Bond Market Direction27%
Equity Market Direction5%
Equity Relative Value13%
2626
Long-term track recordFounding client, target return contribution 1% p.a., 01/01/99 to 31/03/10
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
*Source: Aviva Investors. Alpha composite performance gross of fees. Composite relates to the AIPL Balanced Managed Overlay (Q4’98-Q1’05) and a standalone GTAA mandate (Q2’05-Q4’07), ATAA Fund Q108 to Q110. Scaled to 1% p.a. volatility and alpha target. GBP.
Actual return 0.94% p.a., volatility 1.09% p.a., risk adjusted return 0.86*
Consistent returns over the long-termConsistent returns over the long-term
Long Term GTAA Quarterly performance
Performance +0.94%, volatility 1.1%, information ratio of 0.85Long Term GTAA Quarterly Performance
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
+0.50
+1.00
+1.50
+2.00
+2.50
Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010
Alp
ha %
Actual quarterly GTAA strategy return Target per quarter
2727
ATAA monthly gross of fees attribution by decision
Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at end of December 2009. Short term interest rates (STIR), Long term interest rates (LTIR). 'Other' relates to the volatility trade (Vixfuture), CDS and UK commercial property swap. Attribution shown in GBP.
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Alp
ha C
ontr
ibut
ion
Feb-06
Apr-06
Jun-0
6Aug
-06Oct-
06Dec
-06Feb
-07Apr-
07Ju
n-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-0
8Aug
-08Oct-
08Dec
-08Feb
-09Apr-
09Ju
n-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Monthly Contribution to +20% Fund GOF Alpha by Decision
Equity Beta Equity Market S.T.I.R. (<5 Yrs) L.T.I.R. Beta L.T.I.R. Market Currency Other
Return Target: UK 1M LIBOR GBP + 20% p.a Gross of Fees
2828
Risk management is integral to our process
Fund managers manage market risk by:Ensuring portfolios perform well across scenariosEnsuring portfolio maintains good balance across six main asset risk categoriesSizing trades according to projected risk and level of convictionManaging overall leverage and risk level
AAC varies risk as shown below
Normal
High confidence in mis-pricing
Low confidence in mis-pricing
Minimum
0% volatilityMaximum
+ 30% volatility
Current
Scenario Testing
Portfolio Diversification
Total portfolio volatility
2929
Historic Value at Risk (VaR) within the Fund
Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 March 2010
3030
Model positions - gross exposure by asset class
Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV.
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class) Model Positions - Gross Exposure By Asset Class
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Nov
-09
%
Gross Equities Exposure Gross Bond Exposure Gross Currency Exposure Gross Portfolio ExposureGross STIR Exposure Gross CDS Exposure Gross Other
3131
Model positions – net exposure by asset class
Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV.
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class) Model Positions - Net Exposure By Asset Class
-300%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep
-09
Nov
-09
%
Net Equities Exposure Net Bond Exposure Net Currency ExposureNet STIR Exposure Net CDS Exposure Net Other
3232
Example Sept 2008: Credit offered great long-term value, but not robust on its own
Opportunity: buy senior tranche of European investment grade creditCredit spreads high. Looking to profit from market views & distortionsMassively inflated income for lowest risk CDS tranche due to liquidity crisisHistoric analysis plus worst case defaults showed huge over-compensationVery high confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Depression’ scenario
Itraxx Europe 22-100% Tranche Premium
0
20
40
60
80
100
Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08
Source: Aviva Investors / Itraxx, data as at September 2008
3333
Example Sept 2008: High interest rates offeringattractive value and hedge
Opportunity: receive fixed, pay floating European interest rateSticky inflation expectations, reticent ECB and European slowdown denialWay of making money out of interest rate expectations versus market viewsNatural and convincing hedge for ‘Depression’ scenario High confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Recovery’ scenario
EONIA 15/09/08
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10
Swap CurveOur Forecast12 Month Average Difference
Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008
3434
Fund range overview
Fund Name Absolute TAA Fund Absolute TAA 5 Fund
Legal structure Luxembourg domiciled SICAV Luxembourg domiciled SICAVUCITS compliant Yes YesCurrency GBP EURPerformance target Benchmark +15% net of fees Benchmark +3.75% net of feesBenchmark 1 month GBP LIBOR 1 month EuriborExpected average volatility Under 20% p.a. Under 5% p.a.Liquidity Daily DailyMinimum investment (Institutional share class)
GBP 500,000 EUR 500,000
Launch date 26-Jan-2006 06-Dec-2007Annual management charge (Institutional share class)
0.85% 0.55%
Performance Fee 20% of returns over benchmark 10% of returns over benchmark
Different solutions for different objectivesDifferent solutions for different objectives
Bios
Page 36
Gary Saidler
Gary Saidler
Client Portfolio Manager – Asset AllocationGary joined the investment industry in 2003.Main responsibilitiesTo communicate Aviva Investors tactical asset allocation and strategic asset allocation expertise to clients and prospects.
Experience and qualificationsGary joined Aviva Investors in May 2007. Gary graduated from the University of Glasgow with a BSc (Honours) in Statistics. Prior to Aviva Investors he worked in the investment consultancy industry. Gary is a CFA charterholder and has completed the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate (IMC).
3737
Adrian Jarvis
Adrian JarvisDirector of StrategyAdrian joined the investment industry in 1990.Main ResponsibilitiesAdrian chairs the Asset Allocation Committee, responsible for establishing the asset mix of Aviva Investors balanced fund mandates and is ultimately responsible for monitoring performance and risk control measures across portfolios. Experience and qualificationsAdrian joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management Ltd (NUIM)) in 2000 as Senior Quantitative Analyst with responsibility for developing NUIM’s quantitative research capabilities. He has held the position of Head of Strategy, responsible investment strategy, quantitative research and quant funds leading the team of economists, strategy and index fund managers and derivatives specialists since February 2000. Prior to joining NUIM Adrian spent three years at NPI Asset Management, during which time he was promoted from Director of Strategy & Quantitative Analysis to Head of Global Asset Allocation. Previously he gained extensive investment experience at CIN Management as Assistant Director of Global Asset Allocation and Shell International as Senior Quantitative Analyst. Adrian holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics, and studied Investment Management at the London Business School.
3838
Steve Cleal
Steve ClealAsset Allocation Fund ManagementSteve joined the investment industry in 1987.Main responsibilitiesAs a member of Aviva Investors Asset Allocation Committee, Steve helps formulate the House Strategy for investment markets. He is also responsible for Managing Aviva Investors range of asset allocation mandates.Experience and qualificationsSteve joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management) in 1987. Prior to being appointed Head of Asset Allocation Fund Management in 2009, Steve had a number of roles including managing multi-asset funds and generating the firm's view on the UK and North American economies. He has worked closely with a number of internal and external clients, providing guidance on investment and strategic issues. Steve holds a BA (Hons) from Keele University and the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.
3939
Hassan Johaadien
Hassan JohaadienHead of TAA ResearchHassan joined the investment industry in 1995.Main responsibilitiesTo develop and apply Aviva Investors process for Tactical Asset Allocation to create better benchmarks for client funds and identify special opportunities. Also to develop Aviva Investors TAA models and use them to propose tactical trades for Asset Allocation Committee for which Hassan is a member.Experience and qualificationsHassan joined Aviva Investors in July 2005.Previously he worked for Shell Pensions as Head of Research.Hassan holds a BSc in Statistics, Computing and Economics from University College London. He also holds the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.
Introduction to Aviva Investors
4141
We are part of Aviva plc
World’s fifth-largest insurance group and the largest insurance services provider in the UK*50 million customers worldwide**54,000 employees**Committed to building Aviva brand worldwide
*Based on gross worldwide premiums for the year ended 31 December 2008. ** As at 30 June 2009
Strength and stabilityStrength and stability
Long-term savings
General insurance
UKNorth AmericaEuropeAsia
Asset management
4242
Aviva Investors is a global asset manager
Over £249 billion under management
across all asset classes
Over 1,300 employees at Aviva Investors
Significant growth potential
Enhanced capability available to clients
across borders
Data as at 31 December 2009
Breadth and depth of resourcesBreadth and depth of resources
% AuM by asset class
Liquidity10%
Real Estate10%
Other4%
Equity22%
Fixed Income54%
4343
Operating in 16 countries
Global scale, local knowledgeGlobal scale, local knowledge
North AmericaHeadcount: 215
US
Canada
Asia-PacificHeadcount: 78
EuropeHeadcount: 1,008
France
Eire
Luxembourg
Romania
Poland
Germany
Spain
Italy
China
Singapore
Taiwan
Australia
UK
UAE
Data as at 31 December 2009.
4444
Important information (1)
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva Investors) as at 28 February 2010.Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and they should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.Performance figures sourced from Lipper Hindsight and illustrated on a bid to bid, gross income reinvested basis in the currency shown. Other information sourced from Aviva Investors. The value of an investment in the fund can go down as well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to the future.The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not be taken as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. For Germany: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An derHauptwache 7, 60313 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland or from Aviva Investors, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Austria: The "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, has been appointed by the Company as the paying agent within the meaning of § 34 InvFG. Accordingly, the redemption of shares can be made via the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. The prospectus, the articles of association, the last annual report and the semi-annual report, once published, are available at the office of the "Raiffeisen ZentralbankÖsterreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
4545
Important information (2)
For Spain: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV which are approved by and registered with CSSF in Luxembourg and CNMV in Spain are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, Sucursal en España, Calle Velázquez 47, 2 dcha, 28001 Madrid, España. NIF: W0069758D. Inscritosen la CNMV con el número 33, or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Switzerland: Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, 8023 Zurich was authorised by the Federal Banking Commission as Swiss representative of the Fund and acts also as paying agent. Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts and articles of the SICAV are available free of charge from the head office of the Swiss representative, Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der Hauptwache 7, 60313 Frankfurt am Main or from Aviva Fund Services, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708. For Italy: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Corso Matteotti, 10, 20121 Milano, Italia or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Luxembourg; Norway: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For UK: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
On 1 April 2008 the SICAV changed its name from Aviva Morley to Aviva Investors. Please read the current Prospectus for full details of the current fund range before investing.
Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority and a member of the Investment Management Association.
Contact us at Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ
10/0332/300610