atmosphere&climate change(nres 102)

8/10/2019 Atmosphere&Climate Change(NRES 102)

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The Atmosphere,

Climate, and GlobalWarming


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From Science Vol 326, page 28, October 2, 2009


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IPCC Decadal Global Warming


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The atmosphere

the thin layer of gas that envelopsthe earth

many chemical reactions often driven by intense solar radiation

(sunlight)

atmospheric circulation producesweather and climates


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Atmospheric gases

Gas Volume %

nitrogen 78.1

oxygen 20.9argon 0.934

carbon dioxide 0.039

neon 0.0018

helium 0.0005

methane 0.0002

krypton 0.0001


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Structure of Atmosphere


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Climates of the world


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Electromagnetic radiation and

earths energy balance electromagnetic spectrum

the collection of all possible wavelengths

of electromagnetic energy, considered acontinuous range


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Electromagneticradiation


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The greenhouse effect

effect The process of trapping heat in the atmosphere

water vapor and several other gases warm theearths atmosphere because they absorb andemit radiation

greenhouse gasses

gasses that have a greenhouse effect water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,

methane, CFCs


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Greenhouse effect (continued)

natural effect

important to life earth would be much colder without 21C colder (~38F)

we have altered because of gases we

add to atmosphere unprecedented rates of change


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Earths energy balance


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Climatic Change

major climatic changes have occurredduring the past 2 million years

appearances and retreats of glaciers during the past 100 years, the mean

global annual temperature has

increased by 0.5 degrees Celsius


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Changes in earths temperature


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Global temperatures forthe past 11,300 years

Note spike in temp


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Ocean conveyor belt


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Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change

IPCC

began in 1988 just issued fifth assessment

see earlier slide

use of climate models


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Radiative Forcing


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Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.11.8 GtCO2in 2013, 61% over 1990

Projection for 2014 : 37.01.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990

Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminarySource: CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Uncertainty is5% for

one standard deviation

(IPCC likely range)
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htmlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html


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Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)

The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions

China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)

Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions

Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissionsSource: CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

T F il F l E i (P C i )


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Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)

Chinas per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average

Source: CDIAC; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Per capita

emissions

in 2013

Gl b l C b B d t


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Global Carbon Budget

Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

L d U Ch E i i
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2793/2013/acp-13-2793-2013.htmlhttp://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/9/8931/2012/bgd-9-8931-2012.htmlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/9/8931/2012/bgd-9-8931-2012.htmlhttp://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2793/2013/acp-13-2793-2013.htmlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html


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Land-Use Change Emissions

Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.31.8 GtCO2during 20042013

The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990

Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey

Land-use change also emits CH4and N2O which are not shown hereSource: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Indonesian

peat fires

F t f A th i CO E i i (2004 2013 )
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.html


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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2Emissions (2004-2013 average)

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

26%

9.41.8 GtCO2/yr

32.41.6 GtCO2/yr 91%

+3.31.8 GtCO2/yr 9%10.62.9 GtCO2/yr

29%Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

15.80.4 GtCO2/yr

44%

Ch i th B d t Ti
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html


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Changes in the Budget over Time

The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions, but climate change will affect

carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2in the atmosphere

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Qur et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Data: GCP
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrg.20042/abstracthttp://www.biogeosciences.net/9/5125/2012/bg-9-5125-2012.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html


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www.globalcarbonproject.org


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La Jolla Pier, CA


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Global

circulationor climatemodels


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Gl b l t t i


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Global temperature increase


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Effects of Global Warming

changes in climatic patterns

rise in sea level

changes in biosphere many, many have been found or are

expected to occur


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Projected

temperaturechanges


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USDA Winter Hardiness Maps

1990 map 2012 map


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Projectedwheat yields

Ri k f l l i


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Risks from sea level rise

Arctic ice is melting more


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Arctic ice is melting moreeach summer

The Greenland ice sheet is


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The Greenland ice sheet ismelting rapidly


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Adjustments to Global

Warming mitigate warming through reduction

of greenhouse gasses

energy conservation alternative energy sources

critical danger: rapid climatic change


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What we now know

exciting times ahead

climate change is occurring

no simple technological answer today may never be one

most dont like to change lifestyle in

developed world

atmosphere&climate change(nres 102)

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