atmospheric and hydrological modeling

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Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling Shinjiro KANAE RIHN, Kyoto, Japan Univ of Tokyo, Japan anae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p Tam: Seasonal prediction Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal Tanaka: Land surface model nsa, V.: Hydrological model ahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river) Wang: Ocean - atmos

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Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling. Shinjiro KANAE RIHN, Kyoto, Japan Univ of Tokyo, Japan. (Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p ) C. Tam: Seasonal prediction T. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISO K. Tanaka: Land surface model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Atmospheric and Hydrological ModelingShinjiro KANAERIHN, Kyoto, JapanUniv of Tokyo, Japan

(Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p )C. Tam: Seasonal predictionT. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISOK. Tanaka: Land surface modelHansa, V.: Hydrological model ShahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river)B. Wang: Ocean - atmos

2

Impact of land wetness on predictability of seasonal rainfall

Kanae et al. (2006, J. Climate)

SST

“Realistic” soil moisture and snow (Hirabayashi et al., 2005, JGR)

(1951-98)AGCMhindcast

“Observed” atmospheric forcing (1901-2000)

(5 ensembles)

3Correlation between JJAobservation and simulation(=“predictability”)

Potential Predictability

calculated from

σforced2/ σtotal

2

(with a perfect model assumption)(= similarity within an ensemble)

<(upper limit)

“Inconsistency”

Simply implementing land information intocurrent AGCMs may not give us a promise!!

4Today’s Earth

http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Earth

降水量 (Lv1)

河川流量 (Lv4)

降水同位体比 (Lv3)

水蒸気起源(Lv4)

“Everyday” simulation is very nice to model improvement.

Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling

(Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p )C. Tam: Seasonal predictionT. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISOK. Tanaka: Land surface modelHansa, V.: Hydrological model ShahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river)B. Wang: Ocean - atmos

6Expected discussion focuses

• What are the bottlenecks?What are the key-targets?

• Coordination between observations (in AMY) and model studies.

• Collaboration between atmospheric modeling, ocean modeling, and land hydro modeling.

• Which Institutes will be “Model-Centers”?

• …..

7

8Correlation between sensible and latent heat fluxes (1951-1998, interannual correlation, JJA mean, LAND)

“Inconsistency” Positive correlation

“Semi-arid” Negative correlation

9“Semi-arid” Negative correlation between lE & H

“Inconsistency” Positive correlation between lE & H

DryWet

Evap Sens

“Soil water” determines lE and H then, to the atmosphere

“Atmosphere” determines lE and H Remote impact on the atmos(?)