atmospheric,science, seminar,amfiore/ar5/week1_overview.pdf · working group i contribution to the...

SPRING 2014 EESC G9910

Atmospheric Science Seminar

Fri 9:15-‐10:45 Comer 1st Floor Seminar

Room

Jan 24, 2014: Organiza:onal Mee:ng and Overview (IPCC process; report

highlights)

IPCC AR5 WG1 Report: Course Information

Motivating questions: What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based? Where are there critical knowledge gaps?

FULL FINAL REPORT WILL POST JAN 30. Final SPM is posted: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Sign up on email list (circulating) •  receive course emails Access to galley proof version of chapter for next week cannot be publicly distributed:

www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/temp/Ch1.pdf

Supplemental readings at course website: www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~amfiore/eescG9910.html

Course participation

a)  Sign up for presentation – think about it so we can

start assigning by end of class b)  All are welcome to present, students are given first

priority in choosing chapters. Schedule with names will be on course website

b) credit options: 1 point (discussion only) 2 points (discussion + presentation) 3 points (discussion + presentation + paper)

We welcome involvement from the full LDEO community.

Feel free to join us whenever possible.

Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks

1/31/14 2/7/14

2/14/14 2/21/14

3/7/14

3/28/14

2/28/14 3/14/14

4/4/14 4/11/14

4/18/14

4/25/14 5/2/14

Guidance on presentations and final paper (additional details posted on course website)

Presentations: focus on the figures and the stories they tell. •  Plan on presenting ~15-20 figures per class

2 options for final Papers (8 page max): Option #1: Choose a “hot” research area topic and critically assess the new findings since the IPCC AR5 WG1 publication freeze date (March 15, 2013). How should the 2013 report be updated in light of these new findings? Option #2: Identify a critical knowledge gap, either explicitly discussed in the report or one that you feel should have been. Write a paper or a research proposal describing the work needed to fill this gap.

The rest of today

1. A little background on the IPCC process, from AR4àAR5 -- slides c/o Thomas Stocker University of Bern, Switzerland, IPCC WG1 co-chair – with Qin Dahe 2. Major highlights from the report -- slides c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, Science Director, WG1 TSU -- available at:

Climat Change Science 2013: Haiku http://daily.sightline.org/2013/12/16/the-entire-ipcc-report-in-19-illustrated-haiku/

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Science Gaps, Structure, Schedule

•  Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations ....

•  Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.

•  Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...

IPCC (2007):

c/o Thomas Stocker, 5-15-10 presentation at GFDL, Princeton, NJ


Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)

[...]

[...]



Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:

v  Introduction Chapter 1

v  Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5

v  Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7

v  From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10

v  Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12

v  Integration Chapters 13, 14

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch



FAR 1990 11 Chapters

SAR 1995 11 Chapters

TAR 2001 14 Chapters

AR4 2007 11 Chapters

AR5 2013 14 Chapters

sea level clouds carbon cycle

ü ü ü

ü ü

Climate Change 2013

observations

ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü

regional change

paleoclimate ü ü

ü ü ü ü ü ü

Structure of AR5 in perspective


c/o Gian-Kasper Plattner, 10-8-13


May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, China Mar 2011 Completion of 0-order draft Jul 2011 Second LA meeting Nov 2011 Completion 1st-order draft Apr 2012 Third LA meeting Aug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draft Jan 2013 Fourth LA meeting May 2013 Completion of Final Draft Sep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGI Mar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGII Apr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIII Sep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

Sep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

submitted

31. July 2012

in press, published 15. March 2013

Schedule


HIGHLIGHTS: Observations


HIGHLIGHTS: Causes (attribution)


HIGHLIGHTS: Projected 21st C temperature changes


HIGHLIGHTS: Projected global mean sea level rise


2081-2100 range: RCP8.5: 0.45-0.82 m RCP2.6: 0.26-0.55 m

HIGHLIGHTS: Future options


Course Goals

à Learn the scientific evidence behind headline -and other- statements in AR5.

What are the key findings? On what evidence are they based?

-- models, observations, theory -- strength of evidence

Where are there critical knowledge gaps?

Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables

AII.1: Historical Climate System Data AII.2: Anthropogenic Emissions AII.3: Natural Emissions AII.4: Abundances of the Well Mixed Greenhouse Gases AII.5: Column Abundances, Burdens, and Lifetimes AII.6: Effective Radiative Forcing AII.7: Environmental Data

As in the TAR, to document the numbers behind the figures, generally decadal values

Annex III: Glossary

Class Schedule: 14 chapters in 13 weeks

1/31/14 2/7/14

2/14/14 2/21/14

3/7/14

3/28/14

2/28/14 3/14/14

4/4/14 4/11/14

4/18/14

4/25/14 5/2/14

Keren Ken

Nora

Olivia

Cari

Ethan

Chloe

atmospheric,science, seminar,amfiore/ar5/week1_overview.pdf · working group i contribution to the...

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