attracting retailers to your town centre, keith hargest

8/11/2019 Attracting Retailers to your Town Centre, Keith Hargest

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Hargest & Wallace Planning Ltd

Introduction

Background How has retailing been changing?

What are the drivers of change?

How is this affecting smaller town centres?

What can we do about it?


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How has retailing been changing?

No. of Shops in Scotland

0

5000

10000

15000

2000025000

30000

35000

1976 1990 1996 2000

No. of Shops in

Scotland


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Changing numbers of shops

1970s 1990 steady numbers of shops

Decline since 1990s

50 specialist food shops close each week in the

UK (Fed of Small Businesses)


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Changes in Scottish Retail

No. of Shops - Scotland

25,000

25,200

25,400

25,600

25,800

26,00026,200

26,400

26,600

26,800

27,000

Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


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Scotland - Retail Turnover m

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


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Scotland - Retail EmploymentEmployees

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


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Aberdeenshire

Aberdeenshire - Retail Units

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


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Aberdeenshire

Aberdeenshire - Retail etc Employment

('000s)

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.514.0

14.5

15.0

Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


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AberdeenshireRetail Turnover

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

million

Aberdeen City

Aberdeenshire


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Shops have got bigger

Average Sales Area Per Store

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

DIY Grocers Grocers

(ex Tesco)

Clothing Electrical

Sq

Feet

1998

2005


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Other Changes

Super regional centres: Braehead; Edinburgh

bypass Accelerated growth in available expenditure:

Convenience 1% pa over past decade (flat

previously) Comparison 4.2% pa over past decade (


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Other Changes

Increase in small store formats most marked in

grocery sector M&S; Tesco express; Co-opbuying Alldays

Increased globalisation of ownership and supply

No major retail chains have HQ in Scotland

Diversification of products and services by

grocers


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Market Concentration

Grocery Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2005

Largest

Top 5


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Clothing Sector

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%30%

35%

40%

45%

2000 2005

Largest

Top 5


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Electricals Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2005

Largest

Top 5


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DIY Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

90%

2000 2005

Largest

Top 5


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Geographical changes

Concentration in largest centres: in 1996 retailers need

only 200 branches to tap three quarters of national

durable sales so smaller centres increasingly rely on

independent retailers and other attractions

This would include only about 15 centres in Scotland

i.e. smallest would be ca. size of Dunfermline

Rents in Scotland: % of 25-30th of top 5 centres

2001 22% 2006 20%


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And more besides

Growth of internet retailing:

48bn in 2007, 78bn in 2010??? (IMRG) PKMG: one fifth of all new expenditure is directed on

line

Retailers controlling the supply chain ..


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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

1975 1985 1995 2003

Motoring Costs

Scotland GDP

Drivers of Change: Cost of Travel


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Other Drivers of Change

Rising affluence and increased disposable

income Globalisation impact on structure of industry

Demands for more attractive shopping

destinations amenity and safety

Responses to public policy changes

Social changes competition of consumerstime and perceived value of time


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How does this affect small town centres?

Secondary locations

Lower growth in floorspace,

Lower growth/decline in turnover

Poor rental and yield performance

Clone town Britain


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The future for small town centres?

Future changes? Continued growth of primary

locations Variation in the fortunes of

small centres changes incatchment, level of

competition and presence orabsence of USPs

Investment in new formats bymultiples often in new

locations Development of specialist

retail locations leisure,travel, tourism etc


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Implications for towns in the North East

Aberdeen City Centre reinforce dominance

Strength of Aberdeen City retail parks

Decline in traditional suburban and many smaller towncentres and rural areas

Ongoing interest by some retailers esp by grocers

e.g.: Banchory; Turriff; Stonehaven etc Loss of trade to the internet

Some retail warehousing demand Fraserburgh;

Peterhead; poss for Inverurie The role of independent traders?


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Responses What can we do about it?

Go with the flow or fight? Shoppers are voting

with their feet (cars) yet town centres are keyand valued by the community

Meeting operator requirements

Cannot change geography cf Inverurie v Peterhead What do multiple operators want?

Units of the right size: 200 sq m typical minimum

Easy configuration

Good profile


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Responses

Meeting requirements:

Making suitable sites available

CPO

Underwriting development costs

Active identification of markets

What is the role of the public sector partnerships with

developers/operators

Creating USPs

Every town is unique but..

Heritage; tourism; environmental

quality; population growth


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Town Centre Strategies

How to make them work?

Scope: infrastructure; physical envt;

creating capacity for change; economicstructure; business support; TCHCs

Success:

stakeholder engagement; strong public sector leadership;

sustained resourcing

Delivery vehicle for implementation

Using public sector assets

Using CPO

Communication of results


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Other Tools

Use Planning Controls

consistently: carrot & stick

Supporting town centre

businesses marketing;

business skills

Managing decline

Business Improvement

Districts

attracting retailers to your town centre, keith hargest

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