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Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market

Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and

Forecasts to 2020

Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

2

Summary

“Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to

2020” report offers the reader detailed analysis of the defense budget over the next five years. Alongside it

offers insights into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs (original

equipment manufacturers) to gain a market share in the Nigerian defense industry.

The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations during 2016-2020,

including highlights of the key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets

and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Findings

The Nigerian defense market, valued at US$2.0 billion in 2015, is expected to see a sustained growth over

the next five years to reach US$2.6 billion by 2020. Growing threat from Boko Haram, piracy, oil smuggling

in the Gulf of Guinea and contributions to peacekeeping operations are expected to drive the country‟s

military expenditure to register a growth rate of 3.89% over the forecast period. The growth in military

expenditure will be assisted by the country‟s stable economic growth over the forecast period. Nigeria‟s

capital defense expenditure is expected to increase from US$0.23 billion in 2015 to US$0.3 billion by 2020.

Its share in total expenditure is expected to increase from 11.3% during the review period to 11.7% over the

forecast period. Defense equipment such as multi-role aircraft, marine helicopters, patrol vessels, and

armored personnel carriers are expected to be in demand over the forecast period. An under developed

domestic defense industry and availability of funds propel the Nigerian government to import from countries

that produce low-cost defense equipment.

Key Features and Benefits The report provides detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2011–2020, including the

factors that influence the military expenditure. It provides detailed expectations of growth rates and projected

total expenditure.

It provides the manufacturers with insights on market opportunities along with industry structure and

dynamics prevalent in the country. In addition, the report focuses on the regulations governing the Nigerian

defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the competitive

structure.


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1. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

1.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast

1.1.1. Nigerian defense expenditure is expected to be US$XX billion over the forecast period

Nigerian defense expenditure, valued at US$XX billion in 2015, decreased by XX% over the previous year

but recorded a CAGR of XX% during the review period. Growing threats from domestic terrorist group, Boko

Haram, persisting oil theft and smuggling operations in the Gulf of Guinea, and the largest contingent

contribution from Africa to the peacekeeping operations have been driving the country‟s expenditure on the

armed forces. With the multifold increase in the activities of Boko Haram, such as recent kidnappings of

school girls, is expected to continue driving the Nigerian government‟s investment in enhancing the

capabilities of its armed forces over the next five years. Consequently, Nigerian military expenditure is

projected to grow at a CAGR of XX%, to reach US$XX billion by 2020.

The following table and figure show the Nigerian defense expenditure during the historic period:

Table 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2011-2015

Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn)

Defense growth percentage

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

CAGR 2011-2015

Source: Ministry of Defense, Nigeria and SDI analysis © SDI

Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2011-2015

Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis © SDI

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gro

wth

ra

te (

%)

De

fen

se

ex

pe

nd

itu

re (

US

$ B

n)

Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense Expenditure Growth Rate


4

The following table and figure show projected defense expenditure of the Nigeria over the forecast period:

Table 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2016-2020

Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn)

Defense growth percentage

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR 2016-2020

Source: Ministry of Defense, Nigeria and SDI analysis ©

SDI

Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2016-2020


-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gro

wth

ra

te (

%)

De

fen

se

ex

pe

nd

itu

re (

US

$ B

n)

Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense Expenditure Growth Rate


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1.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation

1.2.1. Defense capital expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period

Share of capital expenditure allocated out of the total defense budget has witnessed a see-saw growth during

the review period, which after reaching a peak of XX% in 2013 declined to XX% in 2015. However, sustained

procurement of military equipment over the next five years to combat homegrown terrorism and oil smugglers

is expected to drive the allocation for capital expenditure to be at an average of XX% over the forecast

period.

The following table and chart display Nigerian defense budget share of capital, revenue and other

expenditure during the review period:

Table 3: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),

2011–2015

Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


Figure 3: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Defe

nse B

ud

get

Sp

lit

(%)

Capital expenditure (%) Revenue expenditure (%)


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The following table and chart display Nigerian defense budget share of capital and revenue expenditure over

the forecast period:

Table 4: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),

2016–2020

Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


Figure 4: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital, Revenue and Other Expenditure (%),

2016-2020


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Defe

nse B

ud

get

Sp

lit

(%)

Capital expenditure (%) Revenue expenditure (%)


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2. Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Figure 4: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Source: SDI analysis © SDI

Intensity of Rivalry Bargaining Power of Supplier

Bargaining Power of Buyer

Barrier to Entry

Threat of Substitute


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Report Methodology

SDI‟s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with a background in

industry research and consulting in the defense sector. The following research methodology is followed for all

databases and reports:

Secondary Research

The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research to source reliable qualitative and

quantitative information related to the defense market. The secondary research sources that are typically

referred to include, but are not limited to:

Industry associations

National government documents and statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations

Industry trade journals and other literature

Internal and external proprietary databases

News articles, press releases, and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market

Primary Research

SDI conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to

validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:

Provides first-hand information on market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape,

and future outlook

Helps to validate and strengthen secondary research findings

Further develops the analysis team‟s expertise and market understanding

Primary research involves e-mail interactions, telephone interviews, and face-to-face interviews for

each market category, division, and sub-division across geographies

The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers,

and national sales managers

External experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders

specializing in defense markets

Conventions

Currency conversions are performed on the basis of average annual conversion rate format

calculations

All the values in tables, with the exception of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and

compounded annual rate of change (CARC), are displayed to one decimal place; therefore, due to

this rounding method, growth rates may appear inconsistent with absolute values

The forecasted values are projected on the basis of nominal values; the inflation was not taken into account


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 9

1.1. What is this Report About? ........................................................................................................... 9

1.2. Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 9

1.3. Summary Methodology .................................................................................................................12

1.4. SDI Terrorism Index ......................................................................................................................13

1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence ..........................................................................................13

2. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 14

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities ........................................................ 16

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast..............................................................................17

3.1.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.89% during the forecast period .................... 17

3.1.2. Insurgency, piracy, oil smuggling, and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense

expenditure ........................................................................................................................................................... 21

3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.4% over the forecast period .............. 22

3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation .......................................................................................26

3.2.1. Allocation for capital expenditure expected to average at 11.7% over the forecast period ..................... 26

3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow at 4.60% over the forecast period .................................... 28

3.2.3. Allocation for the army accounts for the majority of the defense budget ................................................. 32

3.2.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR 3.72% over the forecast period .................................................... 34

3.2.5. Naval expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 3.70% over the forecast period ............................................... 36

3.2.6. Expenditure on the air force to increase during the forecast period ......................................................... 38

3.2.7. Per-capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period ................................... 40

3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast ............................................................................42

3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period ........................................... 42

3.3.2. The threat from Boko Haram, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering to drive the

homeland security market ..................................................................................................................................... 44

3.3.3. Nigeria falls under the „worst affected category‟ by terrorist attack .......................................................... 45

3.3.4. Nigeria experienced extreme terror activity during the historic period ..................................................... 47

3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets .....................................................................................49

3.4.1. The country‟s defense budget is expected to increase during the forecast period .................................. 49

3.4.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure ..... 51

3.4.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense ................................................................. 52

3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators ......................................................53

3.5.1. Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft ..................................................................................................................... 53

3.5.2. Attack Helicopters ..................................................................................................................................... 54

3.5.3. C2/C4ISR .................................................................................................................................................. 55

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics ........................................................................... 56


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4.1. Import Market Dynamics ...............................................................................................................57

4.1.1. Limited capability of the domestic defense market drives imports ........................................................... 57

4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period ........................................................... 58

4.1.3. China, the US, and Italy account for the majority of the country‟s defense imports ................................. 59

4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the largest imported military hardware .................................................................. 60

4.2. Export Market Dynamics ..............................................................................................................61

4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its underdeveloped domestic arms industry .................................. 61

5. Industry Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 62

5.1. Five Forces Analysis.....................................................................................................................62

5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium ........................................................................................... 63

5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high ............................................................................................. 63

5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium ........................................................................................................................... 63

5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low .............................................................................................................................. 63

5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low ......................................................................................................................... 63

6. Market Entry Strategy ......................................................................................................... 64

6.1. Market Regulation .........................................................................................................................64

6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country ................................................ 64

6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector prohibited by the Nigerian government ........................................................... 64

6.2. Market Entry Route .......................................................................................................................64

6.2.1. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs ......................................................... 64

6.3. Key Challenges .............................................................................................................................65

6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry ....................................................................................... 65

6.3.2. Small defense budget does not attract suppliers ..................................................................................... 65

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights ................................................................ 66

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview ...............................................................................................66

7.2. Key Domestic Companies ............................................................................................................67

7.2.1. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: overview ............................................................................... 67

7.2.2. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: products and services .......................................................... 67

7.2.3. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent announcements and strategic initiatives ................... 68

7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: alliances ............................................................................... 68

7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent contract awards ......................................................... 69

7.2.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: overview ..................................................................................... 70

7.2.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: products and services................................................................. 70

8. Business Environment and Country Risk ......................................................................... 71

8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics ................................................................................................71

8.1.1. Population – Rural .................................................................................................................................... 71

8.1.2. Population - Urban .................................................................................................................................... 72


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8.1.3. Population – Number of Households ........................................................................................................ 73

8.2. Economic Performance ................................................................................................................74

8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita....................................................................................................................... 74

8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$ ..................................................................................................... 75

8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services ................................................................................................................ 76

8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services ................................................................................................................ 77

8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (USD Bn)........................................................................................... 78

8.2.6. Manufacturing Output ............................................................................................................................... 79

8.2.7. Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................................. 80

8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per US$ .................................................................................................................... 81

8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per EUR ................................................................................................................... 82

8.2.10. Lending Rate (%) ...................................................................................................................................... 83

8.2.11. Deposit Rate (%) ...................................................................................................................................... 84

8.2.12. Real Interest Rate (%) .............................................................................................................................. 85

8.2.13. Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn) ................................................................................ 86

8.2.14. Goods Exports as a % of GDP ................................................................................................................. 87

8.2.15. Goods Imports as a % of GDP ................................................................................................................. 88

8.2.16. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP............................................................................................ 89

8.2.17. Services Imports as a % of GDP .............................................................................................................. 90

8.2.18. Services Exports as a % of GDP .............................................................................................................. 91

8.2.19. Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP ........................................................................................... 92

8.2.20. Net Foreign Direct Investment .................................................................................................................. 93

8.2.21. Net FDI as a percentage of GDP .............................................................................................................. 94

8.2.22. International reserves, including Gold ...................................................................................................... 95

8.3. Energy and Utilities .......................................................................................................................96

8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation ........................................................................... 96

8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation ................................................................................................................ 97

8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity ....................................................................... 98

8.3.4. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet) ............................................................................. 99

8.3.5. Total Petroleum Consumption ................................................................................................................ 100

8.3.6. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels) .......................................................................................... 101

8.4. Telecommunication .................................................................................................................... 102

8.4.1. Telephone lines ...................................................................................................................................... 102

9. Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 103

9.1. About SDI ..................................................................................................................................... 103

9.2. Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................... 103


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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2011–2015 ...................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2016–2020 ...................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 3: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2011–2015...................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 4: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2016–2020...................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 5: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011–2015 .......... 22 Figure 6: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016–2020 .......... 23 Figure 7: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency

Terms), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Figure 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency

Terms), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011–2015 ............................................................... 26 Figure 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016–2020 ............................................................. 27 Figure 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................. 28 Figure 12: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................. 29 Figure 13: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN billion), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................ 30 Figure 14: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN billion), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................ 31 Figure 15: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2011–2015 ............................................................ 32 Figure 16: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2016–2020 ............................................................. 33 Figure 17: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2011–2015 ................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 18: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2016–2020 ................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 19: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2011–2015 ................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 20: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy(US$ Billion), 2016–2020 .................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 21: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................. 38 Figure 22: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................. 39 Figure 23:Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................. 40 Figure 24: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................ 41 Figure 25: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011–2015 ........................................................................................................... 42 Figure 26: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016–2020 ........................................................................................................... 43 Figure 27: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015 .......................................................................................................................................................... 45 Figure 28: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015 ................................................................................................................................................................. 46 Figure 29: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2011–2015 vs. 2016–2020 .......................................................................................................... 50 Figure 30: Defense Expenditure of the World‟s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020 ............................................................ 51 Figure 31: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015 ..................................................................... 52 Figure 32: Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2015–2025 .................................................................................................. 53 Figure 33: Marine Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025 ................................................................................................................. 54 Figure 34: C2/C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2015- 2025 .............................................................................................................................. 55 Figure 35: Nigerian Defense Import Trend, 2010–2014 (TIV values) .................................................................................................................. 58 Figure 36: Nigerian Defense Imports by Country (US$ Million), 2010–2014 ........................................................................................................ 59 Figure 37: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2010–2014 .................................................................................................................... 60 Figure 38: Industry Dynamics – Porter‟s Five Forces Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 62 Figure 39: Nigeria‟s Population – Rural (In Millions), 2014–2024 ........................................................................................................................ 71 Figure 40: Nigeria‟s Population – Urban (In Millions), 2014–2024 ....................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 41: Nigeria‟s Population – Number of Households (In Millions), 2008–2017............................................................................................. 73 Figure 42: Nigeria‟s GDP per capita, 2014–2024 ................................................................................................................................................ 74 Figure 43: Nigeria‟s Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2014–2024 ................................................................................................. 75 Figure 44: Nigeria‟s Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002–2011 ........................................................................................ 76 Figure 45: Nigeria‟s Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002–2011 ......................................................................................... 77 Figure 46: Nigeria‟s Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn), 2002–2011 ................................................................................................... 78 Figure 47: Nigeria‟s Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2002–2011 .................................................................................................................. 79 Figure 48: Nigeria‟s Consumer Price Index, 2014–2024 ..................................................................................................................................... 80 Figure 49: Nigeria‟s LCU per US$, 2014–2024 ................................................................................................................................................... 81 Figure 50: Nigeria‟s LCU per EUR, 2014–2024 .................................................................................................................................................. 82 Figure 51: Nigeria‟s Lending Rate (%), 2003–2012............................................................................................................................................. 83 Figure 52: Nigeria‟s Deposit Rate (%), 2003–2012 ............................................................................................................................................. 84 Figure 53: Nigeria‟s Real Interest Rate (%),2003–2012 ...................................................................................................................................... 85


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Figure 54: Nigeria‟s Market capitalization of listed companies (USD Bn), 2003–2012 ......................................................................................... 86 Figure 55: Nigeria‟s Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ........................................................................................................................ 87 Figure 56: Nigeria‟s Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ......................................................................................................................... 88 Figure 57: Nigeria‟s Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP, 2002–2011.................................................................................................... 89 Figure 58: Nigeria‟s Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011...................................................................................................................... 90 Figure 59: Nigeria‟s Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ..................................................................................................................... 91 Figure 60: Nigeria‟s Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP, 2002–2011 ................................................................................................... 92 Figure 61: Nigeria‟s Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ Billion), 2002–2011 ......................................................................................... 93 Figure 62: Nigeria‟s Net FDI as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011 ..................................................................................................................... 94 Figure 63: Nigeria‟s International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011 ......................................................................................... 95 Figure 64: Nigeria‟s Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours),2001–2010 ................................................. 96 Figure 65: Nigeria‟s Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2001–2010 ................................................................................................. 97 Figure 66: Nigeria‟s Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million ....................................................................................... 98 Figure 67: Nigeria‟s Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004–2013 ...................................................................................... 99 Figure 68: Nigeria‟s Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003–2012 ............................................................................100 Figure 69: Nigeria‟s Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2004–2013 ...................................................................................................101 Figure 70: Nigeria‟s Telephone lines, 2002–2011 ..............................................................................................................................................102


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LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2011–2015 ........................................................................................................................ 17 Table 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Bn), 2016–2020 ........................................................................................................................ 18 Table 3: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2011–2015 ....................................................................................................................... 19 Table 4: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in NGN Bn), 2016–2020 ....................................................................................................................... 20 Table 5: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011–2015 ........... 22 Table 6: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016–2020 ........... 23 Table 7: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency

Terms), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Table 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in Local Currency

Terms), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 25 Table 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011–2015 ................................................................ 26 Table 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016–2020............................................................... 27 Table 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2011–2015 .............................................................................................................. 28 Table 12: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016–2020 .............................................................................................................. 29 Table 13: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................. 30 Table 14: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN billion), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................. 31 Table 15: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2011–2015 .............................................................. 32 Table 16: Nigerian Defense budget Split between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2016–2020 .............................................................. 33 Table 17: Nigerian Expenditure on Army(US$ Billion), 2011–2015 ..................................................................................................................... 34 Table 18: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2016–2020 .................................................................................................................... 35 Table 19: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2011–2015..................................................................................................................... 36 Table 20: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2016–2020..................................................................................................................... 37 Table 21: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2011–2015 .............................................................................................................. 38 Table 22: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2016–2020 .............................................................................................................. 39 Table 23: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................. 40 Table 24: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................. 41 Table 25: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2011–2015 ............................................................................................................ 42 Table 26: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2016–2020 ............................................................................................................ 43 Table 27: SDI Terrorism Index ............................................................................................................................................................................ 47 Table 28: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2011–2015 vs. 2016–2020............................................................................................................ 49 Table 29: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria – Main Products ................................................................................................................ 67 Table 30: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances ........................................................................................................................... 68 Table 31: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards ................................................................................................... 69 Table 32: Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited – Main Services ....................................................................................................................... 70

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