aug 09 danske commodities daily

8/9/2019 AUG 09 Danske Commodities Daily

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Investment ResearchGeneral Market Conditions

Commodities news

Overview: Commodities are little changed this morning after some selling off onFriday after the US employment report surprised on the downside. Notably, wheat

prices retreated somewhat on Friday from a 23-month high. Payrolls also sent equities

lower, but the market staged a recovery in the late hours. In addition, bond yields

were sharply lower. All eyes on the Fed meeting tomorrow.

Grains: Amid all the fuss about wheat, we should not forget barley, the price ofwhich has doubled in six weeks. In particular, it is worth noting that European barley

is trading approximately at par with milling wheat, which is a rather unusual situation.

Wheat prices did nevertheless decline markedly on Friday as market speculation that

higher prices will boost plantings in the coming season led to some selling. On the

whole, non-commercial positioning in wheat rose further in the week to last

Wednesday according to CFTC data. It is noteworthy however that both corn/maize

and soybeans have followed wheat up only to a rather limited degree in recent weeks.

If focus turns to possible substitution within the grains market, we cannot rule out that

prices of these grains could have further to go.

Cross commodities: This week, market focus will probably centre on risk marketsdigesting the disappointing payroll report. However, with three oil-market reports due

this week most importantly the one from the IEA on Wednesday supply and

demand will probably also receive some attention in energy markets. Particularly for

base metals, the Chinese trade data due for release early Tuesday could also be of

interest in judging whether Chinas demand for raw materials is waning in light of

recent focus on a likely bubble in the property sector.

Speculators increased long positions in wheat last week

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

09 August 2010

Todays key points

No major scheduled events today

Commodities Daily

Commodities overview

Contract Last price %, d/d

WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 81.3 -0.9

Brent, ICE 1. pos 80.7 -1.1

Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 216.2 -1.1

Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 212.4 -1.9

Aluminium, LME 3M 2209 0.4

Copper, LME 3M 7450 0.7

Lead, LME 3M 2211 1.2

Nickel, LME 3M 22312 2.0

Zinc, LME 3M 2157 2.9Steel, LME 3M 500 -0.6

Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 560 0.0

Gold, spot 1208 1.1

Silver, spot 19 1.0

Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 690.5 -12.1

Corn, CBOT 1. pos 404.3 0.2

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen+45 4521 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Christin Tuxen+45 [email protected]

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod+45 4514 3286

[email protected]

Vice President

Fredrik berg+45 4514 [email protected]

Bloomberg: DRFX


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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

This yea

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD

Energy (1. pos):

NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 81.3 0.7 80.7 -1.6 76.1 6.8 70.9 14.6 2.4

ICE Brent ($/bbl) 80.7 0.7 80.2 -1.8 75.4 7.0 73.6 9.7 3.6

NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 216.2 0.7 214.7 -1.8 202.6 6.7 191.2 13.1 2.0

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 212.4 0.5 211.3 -2.4 207.0 2.6 200.8 5.8 3.5

ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 678.5 0.0 678.8 -1.3 644.3 5.3 607.5 11.7 6.8

ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 743.3 0.4 740.2 -1.4 701.3 6.0 652.8 13.9 6.2

TTF NL Natural Gas (/mwh) 18.7 -1.3 18.9 -1.6 21.3 -12.4 9.6 94.7 43.5

Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.5 0.2 4.5 -2.8 4.4 1.6 3.7 21.8 -19.7

Nordpool electricity (/mwh) - 0.9 44.4 0.0 46.6 -4.0 - - -

Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 478.0 -0.8 482.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3

Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 450.5 -0.4 452.5 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2

API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 95.2 0.0 95.2 -0.2 94.2 1.1 73.0 30.4 14.4

ICE ECX Carbon Emission (/tn) 14.2 0.1 14.2 -0.8 14.7 -2.8 14.7 -3.3 13.6

Base metals:

Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2209 0.8 2191 -0.4 2004 10.2 2020 9.4 -0.9

Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7450 1.1 7370 -0.4 6760 10.2 6150 21.1 1.0

Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2211 2.3 2161 -1.1 1845 19.8 1900 16.4 -9.1

Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 22312 1.0 22100 1.0 19500 14.4 19625 13.7 20.4

Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2157 1.3 2129 1.5 1904 13.3 1900 13.5 -15.7

Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 500 -0.6 503 0.0 433 15.6 410 22.0 22.1

Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 560 0.0 560 0.0 610 -8.2 500 12.0 1.8

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.):

Gold 1208 0.3 1205 0.8 1211.0 -0.2 956.9 26.3 10.0

Silver 19 0.4 18 0.6 18.1 2.4 14.7 26.3 9.4

Agriculturals (1. po s):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 690.5 -4.9 725.8 -7.6 523.5 31.9 489.5 41.1 27.5

Matif Mill Wheat (/ton) 210.5 -6.2 224.5 6.9 148.8 41.5 122.0 72.5 60.4

CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 404.3 -0.2 405.0 0.4 375.3 7.7 322.0 25.5 -2.5

CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1065.8 0.6 1059.0 0.4 1025.5 3.9 1184.5 -10.0 2.5NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 18.2 -0.3 18.3 -3.1 16.7 9.3 19.8 -7.9 -32.3

Commodity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 272 -1.1 275 -0.1 255 6.6 261 4.0 -2.7

S&P GSCI 4333 0.2 4324 -1.6 4065 6.6 4363 -0.7 -4.4

Reuters CRB 275 -1.1 278 -0.5 260 5.4 264 4.0 -3.0

Rogers commodity index 3248 -1.4 3294 0.1 2901 11.9 3056 6.3 -0.8

DJ-AIG 135 -1.1 137 -0.1 127 6.6 130 3.9 -2.8

S&P GSCI Energy 948 -1.7 964 -0.7 862 9.9 1017 -6.9 -6.7

S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1655 -0.1 1657 -1.3 1474 12.3 1472 12.4 -3.1

S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1556 0.5 1547 0.3 1543 0.8 1251 24.3 9.2

S&P GSCI Agriculture 609 -2.7 626 2.6 512 18.9 564 8.1 -1.0

Yesterday Month ago Year ago09.08.2010

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Energy


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Commodities Daily

Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos


WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve



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Commodities Daily

Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads


CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos


Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos



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Commodities Daily

Metals

Aluminium Aluminium forward curve


Copper Copper forward curve


Nickel Nickel forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Zinc Zinc forward curve


Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel


Gold and silver Gold forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Grains

Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe


Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT


Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT



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Commodities Daily

DisclosureThis research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of

Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The authors of

this research report are Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst and Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst.

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high

quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske

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Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology

as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be

obtained from the authors upon request.

Risk warning

Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis

of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.

Expected updates

This report is updated on a daily basis.

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Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated

using the closing price from the day before publication.

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aug 09 danske commodities daily

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