august 30, 2012 cost estimate review closeout presentation st. croix river crossing project...
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August 30, 2012
Cost Estimate Review Closeout Presentation
St. Croix River Crossing ProjectMinnesota and Wisconsin
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Project Map
Cost Estimate ReviewObjective
Conduct an unbiased risk-based review to verify the accuracy and reasonableness of the current total cost estimate to complete the
St. Croix River Crossing Project
and to develop a probability range for the cost estimate that represents the project’s current stage of design.
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Review Agenda
MONDAY – August 27 CER Introduction by FHWA Project Overview by Project Personnel Overview State Estimation Process Define Contingency, Risk Template & Inflation Roadway Pavement TUESDAY – August 28 Structures Retaining Walls Noise Barriers Right of way and Utilities Erosion Control Drainage MOT Environmental Mitigation Costs Miscellaneous Costs
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Review Agenda
WEDNESDAY – August 29 Visual Enhancements Lighting, Traffic Control, Traffic Surveillance and
Signals ITS Soft Costs Begin Findings and Report Preparation Findings and Report Preparation Draft Presentation
THURSDAY – August 30 Closeout Presentation
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Basis of Review Review based on estimates provided by the Project Team in
advance with revisions made during the review Reviewed estimates to determine the reasonableness of
assumptions used Reviewed project elements to identify and model risks Discussed project conditions to develop base variability, market
conditions and inflation percentage Not an independent FHWA estimate
• Did not verify quantities and unit prices
• Goal is to verify accuracy and reasonableness of estimate
Risk-based Probabilistic Approach
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Review Participants
FHWA • Headquarters – Office of Innovative Program
Delivery• MN Division Office
Minnesota Department of Transportation
Wisconsin Department of Transportation
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Review Methodology Verify Accuracy of Estimate
• Review major cost elements• Review allowances and contingencies• Adjust estimate as necessary
Discuss / Model• Base Variability• Market Conditions & Inflation• Key Schedule & Cost Risks
Perform Monte Carlo simulation to generate a project estimate as forecast range
Communicate Results
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Documentation Provided
Project Cost Estimate
LWD Cost Estimating Method - MnDOT
Project Schedule
Minnesota Inflation Forecast
Project Website
Project Map and Location
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Review Findings Estimate is comprehensive, covering entire construction scope
of project
• Estimate includes all soft costs (design, CE, environmental mitigation)
• Estimate includes all ROW, Utility Relocation
Estimate current as of May 21, 2012
Found basis for pricing to be relevant and used similar project experience for the major bridge
Found the Project team used good estimating practices in preparation of the cost estimate
Good communication among Project Team to ensure estimate covered the entire project scope
Review Baseline
Pre-CER Project InformationTotal Cost (YOE): $623,566,730
Total Cost (Current): $548,538,322
Project Completion Date: November 2017
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Estimate Adjustments ($ in millions)$548.638 Pre-CER State Estimate (Current Year)
Adjustments-1.75 Reduction in pavement Depth/Reduction in pavement width on frontage approach
.75 Communication (during Construction)-5 1 less cofferdam resulting from the elimination of 1 pier1 Select subgrade treatment on Wisconsin approach
0.526 Concrete Post Wooden Plank Noise wall in City of Oak Park Heights Based on (990 length 20')
.5 Stipend (bidders)3 Field Office
2.5 Construction trestle to span wetlands-24 Shaft Design quantity corrections
6 Utility costs for Oak Park Heights($5.8mil includes traffic signals)($100K additional locations)
.365 ITS Costs for fiber optic network(cameras, DMS).15 ITS Costs for ITS infrastructure
.1 ITS Costs for ITS security infrastructure on bridge
Estimate Adjustments ($ in millions).5 Test shaft for load testing foundation supports during construction (risk mitigation
for ensuring foundation support)
.1 Filtration/Under-drain additions
-5.5Right of way Adjustment for reduced parcels(Minnesota)
-$20.759 Subtotal Adjustments
$527.779 CER Adjusted State Estimate (Current Year)
Adjusted Baseline
CER Adjusted Project InformationTotal Cost (YOE): $565,389,188 †
Total Cost (Current): $527,779,322 †
Project Completion Date: November 2017
† - includes -$20.76 M in adjusted costs
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Base Variation
Analyzed by Section of Project• MN Section: +/- 15%• WI Section: +/- 15%
Conceptual Overview of Inflation & Market Conditions
CurrentYear
YOEaba
BaseEstimate
Inflation
Worse
As-Planned
Better
MarketConditions
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Market Conditions - MN Assumptions
• Market Conditions remain as-planned: 20%• Market Conditions better than planned: 60%• Market Conditions worse than planned 20%
• Variation of better than planned from as-planned: 10%
• Variation of worse than planned from as-planned: 10%
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Market Conditions - MN
As Planned Engineer
Estimate = 20%
WorseThan Planned =
20%
BetterThan Planned =
60%
+10%-10%
Variation from the Base
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Market Conditions - WI Assumptions
• Market Conditions remain as-planned: 25%• Market Conditions better than planned: 50%• Market Conditions worse than planned 25%
• Variation of better than planned from as-planned: 10%
• Variation of worse than planned from as-planned: 10%
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Market Conditions - WI
WorseThan Planned =
25%
BetterThan Planned =
50%
+10%-10%
Variation from the Base
As Planned Engineer
Estimate = 25%
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Inflation Forecasts MnDOT Construction Inflation STIP/HIP Projections for SFY
2013 - 2022 (based on recent trends and available forecasting through September 2011)
• 2012 – 2013 = 5% (modeled to vary @ +/- 10%)
• 2014 = 4% (modeled to vary @ +/- 10%)
• 2015 – 2022 = 5% (modeled to vary @ +/- 10%)
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Risk Register Risks identified through discussions with SMEs
Modeled significant risks (threats and opportunities)
Cost Risk / Schedule Risk
Project team quantified unidentified risks
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Significant Cost Threats Difficulty in constructing foundations due to contaminated materials and
remnant from the energy plant, land fills site or other unknown difficulties related to the Super Fund site
Superfund Site Wall construction
Superfund Site ROW Purchase
Complications during construction of the drop shaft on the Wisconsin bluff
Material and labor costs increase above estimated inflation increasing project costs
Issues with casting and transporting precast deck sections and River access
Cost associated with Procuring an early foundation contract
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Significant Cost Threats Unfavorable weather may impact construction activities
Foundation work, difficulty in construction due to artesian pressure
MOT complications associated with maintaining Beach Rd with possible Temporary Bridge
Presence of endangered species may impact the construction of the bridge (during construction)
Permits delay from other regulatory agencies
Risk of Loop Trail support wall not being able to support bike/ped trail
Use of a precast cofferdam seal/marine enclosure to mitigate the inability of a traditional coffer dam to work with poor subsurface material
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Significant Cost Opportunities
There is an opportunity to reduce the size of the drilled shafts piles(from 10 ft. to 8 ft. shafts - 130 feet deep)
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Significant Schedule Threats Utility Relocation Impacts and coordination Unfavorable weather may impact construction activities Foundation work, difficulty in construction due to artesian pressure Flow rate impacts to ponds at Wisconsin approach MOT complications associated with maintaining Beach Rd with possible
Temporary Bridge Presence of endangered species may impact the construction of the bridge
(during construction) Permits delay from other regulatory agencies Issues with casting and transporting precast deck sections and River access Use of a precast cofferdam seal/marine enclosure to mitigate the inability
of a traditional coffer dam to work with poor subsurface material
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Significant Schedule Opportunities
Opportunity with Procuring an early foundation contract my offer potential schedule advantages for the project
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CER Outputs
Review findings/recommendations Adjustments made to estimate during review Project cost estimate at 70% level of
confidence Risk Register – Threats/Opportunities
Total Project Cost with Risks (2012 Dollars) 29
Total Project Cost with Risks (YOE)30
CER Outputs – Total Cost ForecastPercentile Total Project Costs
Forecast values
0% $416,384,859 10% $501,759,702 20% $524,168,319 30% $538,705,057 40% $552,126,372 50% $564,172,878 60% $575,938,951 70% $588,834,169 80% $603,797,304 90% $624,371,327 100% $740,854,665
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Project Schedule – 70% Confidence
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MnDOT & WisDOT Cost Forecasts
Information Only
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MnDOT Remaining Costs (YOE) 34
CER Outputs – MnDOT Cost ForecastPercentile Total Project Costs
Forecast values
0% $210,887,579 10% $246,401,524 20% $260,216,183 30% $270,476,788 40% $278,936,749 50% $287,728,327 60% $296,298,284 70% $306,042,397 80% $317,543,386 90% $332,904,228 100% $389,821,390
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WisDOT Remaining Costs (YOE)36
CER Outputs – WisDOT Cost ForecastPercentile Total Project Costs
Forecast values
0% $178,334,425 10% $212,290,679 20% $224,606,681 30% $233,766,565 40% $241,401,652 50% $249,477,083 60% $257,665,492 70% $266,533,175 80% $275,762,175 90% $288,450,177 100% $332,131,186
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Recommendations
Include range of YOE forecast values in NEPA document
Submit revised Major Project Initial Financial Plan with value equal to or greater than CER 70% results – prior to authorization of construction
Develop a plan to manage threats and opportunities Continue to work towards procurement to take
advantage of current market conditions Continue to monitor market conditions through
procurement
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Risk Management Process
Identification
Assessment/
Analysis
Mitigation &
PlanningAllocation
Monitoring &
Control
FHWA will prepare a final report documenting review findings.• Draft report for review within 30 days• Draft report will be e-mailed to Division Office• Division Office will review the draft and forward it to the State
Project Team• Final report issued within 30 days after receipt of comments• Final report forwarded to the Division Office for distribution to
the State Project Team
FHWA uses the report for the review of the Initial Financial Plan
Estimate review is a snapshot of the current estimate
CER Next Steps
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Questions?
St. Croix River Crossing Project