austin: beyond the cranes

Austin: Beyond the CranesReviewing the Fundamentals &

Looking Ahead to 2015

Austin Chamber of CommerceEconomic Outlook 2014

December 4, 2014Hyatt Regency Austin

2

• Population change (nom) #10

• Population growth (%) #2

• Job change (nom) #7

• Job growth (%) #1

• GDP change (nom) #21

• GDP growth (%) #3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs are from 2000 to 2013. GDP is from 2001 to 2013 (2000 not available). Growth rankings (%) are among large MSAs. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.

Austin, TX: A Theory of Everythinghttp://civicanalytics.com/austin-texas-a-theory-of-everything/

Austin rank among U.S. metros since 2000

http://civicanalytics.com/austin-texas-a-theory-of-everything/

3

Austin is averaging 5.7% annual GDP growth

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Not adjusted for inflation.


1.2%

5.6%

9.0% 8.8%

10.0%

4.1%

6.4%

-1.8%

7.2%

5.9%

7.8%

3.8%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Austin MSA

U.S.

% Change in GDP (Nominal)

Average (2002-13)

Austin MSA 5.7%

U.S. 3.9%


4

Austin: a tale of two very different recessions

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Seasonally adjusted.


-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Austin MSA

U.S.

Jan‘09

Feb‘10

July ‘01

Dec‘03

Jan1991

Aug2014

Job Growth, 12-month rolling (SA)

AUS U.S.

2010-13 12% 5%

2000s 13% -1%

1990s 63% 18%


5

Population growth is Austin’s great stabilizer

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. U.S. MSA is all metropolitan areas.


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Austin MSA

U.S. (MSA)

Population Growth, 1970-2013

Austin

2013 2.7%

2012 3.0%

2011 3.1%

Austin MSA lost jobs


6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3 table P37. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.

Bach Degree+Pop Growth

2000-13RankMSA

Total PopGrowth

2000-13RankMSA

Charlotte 102% 1 35% 5

Grand Rapids 93% 2 9% 33

Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3

Austin 80% 4 49% 2

Raleigh 79% 5 51% 1

Riverside 74% 6 34% 8

Nashville 72% 7 27% 12

Orlando 66% 8 37% 4

San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9

Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6

Austin is winning the “war for talent”

Austin MSA has added 225,000people with bachelor’s degree or

higher since 2000 (~17K per year).

Average earnings per worker (age 25+) with a bachelor’s degree or

higher in Austin MSA are $85,608.

7Source: Population forecast is from Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin, January 2014 (*) and EMSI (**). Employment forecast is from EMSI and does not include self-employment.

Austin MSA: a look ahead to 2015

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology

look respectable.”John Kenneth Galbraith

MSA (Pop/Emp) 2014 2015

Population* 3.0% 3.0%

Population** 2.6% 2.1%

Employment 3.8% 3.1%

County (Emp) 2014 2015

Travis 3.4% 2.7%

Williamson 5.0% 4.7%

Hays 5.1% 4.2%

8Source: EMSI, 2014.3 Class of Worker Data Release. Does not include self-employment. NAICS industry definitions for clusters provided by the Austin Chamber of Commerce. Cluster definitions, and therefore employment and growth figures, may be different from other studies on the Austin economy. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.

Chamber: Opportunity Austin 3.0 targets

Industry Cluster (MSA)Employment

2014Estimate

2014Projected

2015

Data Management 60,185 7.4% 3.4%

Creative & Digital Media 59,148 6.8% 3.7%

Advanced Manufacturing 54,064 3.3% -0.8%

Clean Energy & Power Technology 48,725 3.3% 1.9%

Life Sciences 42,378 6.1% 3.3%

Corporate HQ & Regional Offices N/A N/A N/A

Our challenge:

1. Identifying education & training needs that cut across OA targets

2. Prioritizing & scaling workforce programs

3. Aligning & funding K-12 CTE programs

4. Communicating what this will take in clear, data-driven terms

7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108Austin, Texas 78757

@civicanalyticshttp://civicanalytics.com

austin: beyond the cranes

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