ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Hazel H. ReinhardtJanuary 19, 2011

AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT

EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS

Total Enrollment 2010-11 Actual▪ 4,399 (10/01/10)

Projections▪ 4,399 High K/High Migration▪ 4,394 Middle K/High Migration▪ 4,352 Middle K/Low Migration▪ 4,352 Low K/Low Migration

EVALUATION OF PROJECTIONS

Kindergarten Actual▪ 363 (10/01/10)

Projections▪ 365 Low and Middle Assumptions▪ 370 High Assumption

PREDICTORS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE

Community characteristics Distribution of students by grade Resident births Education choice decisions Housing: type and increase by type

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Austin Public Schools’ enrollment growth in the past four years is atypical in Minnesota

White, not Hispanic, enrollment declined while minority, especially Hispanic, enrollment increased Minority students are now 31% of the student

body District residents are less likely to chose

other education options than students statewide

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Austin Public Schools’ capture rate of district residents rose over the past ten years, which is also atypical in Minnesota

Resident births in Mower County and Austin City increased dramatically, which is a good indicator of future enrollment growth

The current grade distribution by grade predicts enrollment growth

Austin Public Schools are projected to grow

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Enrollment is projected to increase from 4,373 to 4,739 (2014-15) to 4,967 (2019-20) based on the lowest projection

Minority students will continue to be a large share of the student body and may account for nearly 40% of all students in five years

The net in migration of the past year may be an anomaly When used in projections, the

projections are high

K-12 ENROLLMENT

K-12 enrollment is 161 students higher than in 2000-01 Prior to 2005-06 enrollment declined 2005-06 was first year of all day

kindergarten Past four years, enrollment up 160

students or 3.8%

K-12 ENROLLMENT

Year K-12 Enrollment

2000-01 4,212

2001-02 4,099

2002-03 4,081

2003-04 4,021

2004-05 4,069

2005-06 4,213

2006-07 4,212

2007-08 4,223

2008-09 4,257

2009-10 4,373

2010-11 4,399

RACE/ETHNICITY

CHANGE

Change

2000-01 2009-10 Number Percent

Total 4,212 4,373 161 3.8%

White 3,666 2,998 -668 -18.2%

Minority 546 1,375 829 151.8%

Percent Minority

13.0% 31.4%

ENROLLMENT CHANGE

Natural increase Fall kindergarten class is larger than the

previous year’s Grade 12 Natural increase often results in

enrollment growth Net migration tends to be negative

Past year a big exception

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE

Fall to Fall TotalNatural

Increase/Decrease

Net Migration

2000 to 2001 -113 -33 -80

2001 to 2002 -18 11 -29

2002 to 2003 -60 -17 -42

2003 to 2004 48 40 8

2004 to 2005 144 92* 52

2005 to 2006 -1 30 -31

2006 to 2007 11 80 -69

2007 to 2008 34 85 -51

2008 to 2009 116 46 70

NONPUBLIC CHOICE

Nonpublic school enrollment decreased

Nonpublic schools enroll: 8.1% of the district’s school age

population 8.7% in Minnesota

Home schools enroll: 1.4% of the district’s school age

population 1.7% in Minnesota

PUBLIC OPTIONS

Open enrollment in (128) 2.0% of Austin Public School enrollment

(2008-09) Open enrollment out (153)

3.0% of Austin’s school age population (2008-09)

4.9% of Minnesota students opt for open enrollment

PUBLIC OPTIONS

Charter schools (0) None of Austin’s school age population 3.6% of Minnesota students

DISTRICT SCHOOL AGE POPULATION

District’s school age population increasing 2003-04 to 2008-09▪ 192 or 4.2%

Austin Public Schools’ capture rate 87.2% in 2008-09 85.8% in 2003-04

ENROLLMENT BY GRADE

Predictor of enrollment change Kindergarten up in the past four years▪ 2005-06 with all day kindergarten, kindergarten

was 384 students. Since then, ranged from 356 to 376

Grade 12 largest in 2009-10 (361 students) followed by 2008-09 (325 students)

Elementary grades (K through 5) larger than current high school grades▪ Predicts enrollment increase

ENROLLMENT BY GRADEGrade 2000-

012001-

022002-

032003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

082008-

092009-

10

K 272 268 302 260 299 384 356 376 367 371

1 292 298 285 313 294 321 371 350 372 366

2 307 295 285 263 289 287 306 351 349 389

3 313 310 294 287 278 287 293 307 346 357

4 335 316 308 292 285 274 292 289 296 353

5 311 350 324 311 302 290 280 286 297 316

6 308 303 353 344 341 323 301 293 300 310

7 347 309 314 356 347 335 320 302 289 301

8 337 341 317 309 350 348 343 322 303 286

9 375 366 366 338 328 389 396 366 311 310

10 366 340 352 368 322 322 347 366 348 319

11 348 312 304 321 342 327 311 333 354 334

12 301 291 277 259 292 326 296 282 325 361

Total 4,212

4,099

4,081

4,021

4,069

4,213

4,212

4,223

4,257

4,373

FUTURE

Trends where confidence is high Aging Decrease in the school age population

per household Shift in size of key adult age groups,

which will affect demand for housing Low fertility Enrollment cycles

FUTURE

Unknowns Duration of the collapse of the housing

market and tight credit▪ Affects mobility▪ Housing supply

Economic recovery▪ Affects immigration

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Two methods Cohort survival▪ Kindergarten (births as proxy)▪ Migration (survival rates)

Housing unit▪ Housing units▪ School age child per dwelling unit ratio▪ Public school capture rate

RESIDENT BIRTHSYear Minnesota Mower County Austin City

1994 64,277 453 268

1995 63,259 430 270

1996 63,681 404 245

1997 64,491 430 250

1998 65,207 467 296

1999 65,953 475 307

2000 67,451 523 356

2001 66,617 535 363

2002 68,037 539 383

2003 70,053 536 365

2004 70,617 509 346

2005 70,950 538 385

2006 73,515 575 435

2007 73,675 549 358

2008 72,382 633 460

KINDERGARTEN POOL

What is it? Adjusting births to required age to enroll in kindergarten Births reported by calendar year Must be 5 as of September 1 enroll in

kindergarten▪ About one-third born six years earlier and

two-thirds born five years earlier

KINDERGARTEN POOLBirth Years Pool Percentage Kindergarten

1994; 1995 437 62.2% 2000-01

1995; 1996 411 65.2% 2001-02

1996; 1997 420 71.9% 2002-03

1997; 1998 455 57.1% 2003-04

1998; 1999 472 63.3% 2004-05

1999; 2000 507 75.7%* 2005-06

2000; 2001 531 67.0% 2006-07

2001; 2002 538 69.9% 2007-08

2002; 2003 537 68.3% 2008-09

2003; 2004 518 71.6% 2009-10

2004; 2005 528 2010-11

2005; 2006 563 2011-12

2006; 2007 558 2012-13

2007, 2008 605 2013-14

MOWER COUNTY BIRTH PROJECTIONS

Projected Births

Year Low High

2008 633 633

2009 544 556

2010 542 561

2011 540 564

2012 539 568

2013 537 572

2014 534 576

MINNESOTA PROJECTED BIRTHS

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

69,00070,00071,00072,00073,00074,00075,00076,00077,00078,00079,000

Births

Births

KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS

Low Middle High

2010-11 365 365 370

2011-12 390 390 394

2012-13 386 386 391

2013-14 419 419 424

2014-15 397 403 407

2015-16 376 387 391

2016-17 374 390 394

2017-18 373 392 397

2018-19 372 394 399

2019-20 370 398 403

NET MIGRATION SUMMARY

NET MIGRATIONFALL TO FALL

00 to 01

01 to 02

02 to 03

03 to 04

04 to 05

05 to 06

06 to 07

07 to 08

08 to 09

K-5 50 9 -8 33 14 -11 -35 -13 51

6-8 -13 22 18 27 16 16 16 11 11

9-12 -117 -60 -53 -52 22 -36 -50 -49 8

Total -80 -29 -43 8 52 -31 -69 -51 70

NET IN MIGRATION BY GRADE

Change in net flow Kindergarten to Grade 1 until all day

kindergarten; now a small net flow out Net inflow from

Grade 5 to Grade 6 Grade 8 to Grade 9

Net outflow from Grade 10 to Grade 11 Grade 11 to Grade 12

NET MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS

Two assumptions Low is the average of survival rates of

the past four years High is the average of survival rates of

the past two years

MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS

GradeSurvival Rates

Low High

K to 1 0.984 0.993

1 to 2 0.986 1.022

2 to 3 1.008 1.005

3 to 4 0.997 0.992

4 to 5 1.024 1.048

5 to 6 1.044 1.047

6 to 7 0.996 0.995

7 to 8 1.006 0.997

8 to 9 1.019 0.995

9 to 10 0.948 0.989

10 to 11 0.963 0.964

11 to 12 0.952 0.998

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

YearLow K

Low MigMiddle KLow Mig

Middle KHigh Mig

High KHigh Mig

2009-10 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373

2010-11 4,352 4,352 4,394 4,399

2011-12 4,405 4,405 4,470 4,479

2012-13 4,481 4,481 4,571 4,585

2013-14 4,614 4,614 4,718 4,737

2014-15 4,739 4,745 4,870 4,894

2015-16 4,823 4,840 4,993 5,020

2016-17 4,898 4,931 5,110 5,142

2017-18 4,951 5,002 5,210 5,247

2018-19 4,961 5,034 5,258 5,301

2019-20 4,967 5,067 5,311 5,360

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

K-5 6-8 9-12 Total

2009-10 2,152 897 1,324 4,373

2014-15

Low K/Low M 2,292 1,185 1,262 4,739

Middle K/Low M 2,298 1,185 1,262 4,745

Middle K/High M 2,371 1,218 1,281 4,870

High K/High M 2,394 1,218 1,281 4,894

2019-20

Low K/Low M 2,227 1,245 1,495 4,967

Middle K/Low M 2,327 1,245 1,495 5,067

Middle K/High M 2,404 1,321 1,587 5,311

High K/High M 2,431 1,337 1,592 5,360

HOUSING UNIT METHOD

Change in age of adults 2010-2020▪ Population in household formation years (20-

34 yrs) increases less than from 2000-2010 ▪ Decrease in population in the “move up”

housing years (35-54 yrs)▪ Usually have children in the household▪ Prefer single-family detached units

▪ Huge increase in population 65+ years

ADULT POPULATION

MINNESOTA

Age 2000 2010 2020 2000-2010

2010-2020

20-34 yrs 995,621 1,148,080 1,155,370 152,459 7,290

35-54 yrs 1,489,878 1,567,580 1,520,860 77,702 -46,720

55-64 yrs 404,869 631,090 788,290 226,221 157,200

65+ yrs 594,266 677,270 947,520 83,004 270,250

Sum 3,484,634 4,024,020 4,412,040 539,386 388,020

ROLE OF HOUSING

Dwelling unit type affects the school age child per household ratio Only single-family detached units have a high

yield of school age children New dwelling units yield more students

than older units As existing units turnover (sold), the

school age child per household goes down, except for the very newest units

Value of units affects school age child ratio

HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS

540 additional households by 2019-20

Increase school age child per household 0.41 in 2008 0.44 in 2014-15 0.45 in 2019-20

Increase public school capture rate 87.2% in 2008-09 88% in 2014-15 and 2019-20

HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS

HOUSING UNIT METHOD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Assumptions

ResidentsAUSTIN District

Nonresidents

TotalEnrollmen

tHousehol

dsTotal APS

2014-15

(+240 units)@0.44; 88%

5,210 4,585 130 4,715 11,840

2019-20

(+540 units)@0.45; 88%

5,463 4,807 130 4,937 12,140

PROJECTIONS COMPARISON

2014-15

Residents Attendin

g APS Nonresidents

Total Enrollment Households

Housing Unit

(+240 units)@0.44; 88%

4,585 130 4,715 11,840

Cohort

Low K/Low Mig 4,609 130 4,739 11,905

Middle K/Low Mig 4,615 130 4,745 11,918

Middle K/High Mig 4,740 130 4,870 12,241

High K/High Mig 4,764 130 4,894 12,305

PROJECTIONS COMPARISON

2019-20

Residents Attending

APS Nonresidents

TotalEnrollment Households

Housing Unit

(+ 540 units)@0.45; 88%

4,807 130 4,937 12,140

Cohort

Low K/Low Mig 4,837 130 4,967 12,216

Middle K/Low Mig 4,937 130 5,067 12,467

Middle K/High Mig 5,181 130 5,311 13,084

High K/High Mig 5,230 130 5,360 13,207