Debunking the 457 Mythdecision making by ‘movers’ is quick and ‘stayers’ is decisive

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… the immigration push …

labour market …

employment …

labour force …

national accounts …

population …

the economic need for a much youngerlabour force to offset the challenges of ageing

populace and shrinking tax-base

… to be young again …

the magnitude of Australia's population?

smaller or bigger by mid-century?

26 million vs. 36 million?

… an enduring debate? …

NOM - ‘net overseas migration’ is the national measure of

net-gain or net-loss of the migration population which nowadays accounts for 2/3rd of Australia’s population

growth

NOM is a truer reflection of what is occurring in communities

and the labour market than permanent migration

… coming & going…

NOM - based on resident long-term temporary and permanent

migration for periods of 12 months or more over a 16 month period regarding immigration to Australia and

emigration from Australia

299,900 - June 2008

198,600 - June 2012

208,000 - June 2016

… longer the better …

1 Australian birth every 1½ minutes

1 Australian death every 3½ minutes

net gain…

1 migrant gain every 2½ minutes

… gaining by the minute …

Thursday 30 May, 2013 - 8.00 am AEST

23, 052 million

estimated resident population at 30 June 2012 & assumes growth since then

… wow! the last part was fast…

the number of workers in Australia with jobs or those actively seeking jobs… 11.1 million

number of Australians who were either born overseas, or have

at least one parent born overseas… 11.1 million

… legs 11 …

the labour force is a market in which workerscompete for jobs & employers compete for workers

… the force …

labour force average growth rate…

2.5% a year since 2005

that’s quick!!!

it's also an extra 1.4 million people

… quick march …

labour force average growth rate predominantlydue to more women choosing to participate in labour

force

the largest single group increase in participation isbaby boomers choosing to delay retirement

… hold on baby …

strong growth of employment in service industrieshas suited women partly by providing more

jobs with flexible working arrangements

… woman power …

the ‘underemployed’ are workers who want more work hours

than they currently have (or can get), commonly considered

as 'hidden potential’ in the labour force

‘underemployment rate’ - 7.3% (February 2013)

… we're underemployed …

‘underutilisation rate’ adds unemployment & underemployment

includes, those who are not currently working who want

to start, and those who are currently working but want to (and can) work more hours

… and underutilised …

the underutilisation rate provides a more completepicture of labour market supply than unemployment

rate

changes in underutilisation rate captures both fluctuations in unemployment & underemployment,

indicatingthe spare capacity in the labour force

underutilisation rate - 13.4% (February 2013)

… figure that out? …

primary 457 visa holders in the labour forcehas doubled since mid 2000’s

approx. 106,500 primary & 85,000 secondary (April, 2013)

457 visa holders share of total employment is still just over

¾ of 1% of labour market… and 2% of skilled workforce

… 1 & 2 = 457 …

trend-employment increases in labour force

wholesale trade …education & training …

accommodation & food services …transport, postal & warehousing …healthcare & social assistance …

ABS / DEEWR Labour Market Update - (February 2012 - 2013)

… that’s trendy …

if we were to decelerate immigration levels, each of the following economic elements would

immediately plunge:  

gross domestic product …available labour …export sector …

… oops …

overarching treasury forecast…

labour market conditions are likely to remainreasonably modest

unemployment (& underemployment) to edge upwards by end Q4 2013

… not what I need to hear …

at any given point, the leading factors which determine

immigration policy and legislative settings are either:

political …economic …

social …

… seems logical? I think …

3% of the world's population live outside theircountry of birth

however, by 2019 this figure will be 6%

… moving right along …

government's ideological position on migrants…

skilled migrants are for Australia’s benefit whilst all other

migrants are for their own benefit…

therefore, the politics, policies, law, &the numbers reflect this stance

… hmmm …

permanent immigration program has 2 components… 

‘migration stream’skilled, family, special eligibility

(skilled comprises nearly 70%) 

‘humanitarian stream’refugees & others in humanitarian need

… skilling Australia…

federal budget - 2012/2013

planned skilled migration intake number(s)

temporary places - uncapped

permanent places - 190,000

… run the numbers …

the government’s guiding skilled migration agenda isbased on Treasury’s - ‘intergenerational report’(s)

complimented by assumptions of economic growthwhich embrace a set of three principles known as…

the 3 p’s

participation …productivity …population …

… the 3 what? …

migration concentrated in prime-working ages of25 to 45 years will increase workforce participation

andproportion of working age people in the population

… that would fix it …

the selection of skilled migrants within migration program

is a hybrid-system characterised by ‘supply’ vs. ‘demand’ government policies and practices

… is there a difference? …

‘demand’ skilled migration policies:-

incorporates employer sponsorship oftemporary or permanent skilled migrants

‘supply’ skilled migration policies:-

based on points-testing designed to assessa migrant’s capabilities and attributes

… does that seems one-sided? …

consistently, only 0.5% of ‘employer sponsored’migrants are found to be unemployed and

their participation rate is 99.1%

points tested ‘independent’ migrants have very highworkforce participation rates of over 96.3%, and low

unemployment rates approx. 3.0%

ABS Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants (CSAM)

... much better than us …

“if I know the answer I'll tell you

if I don't, I'll just respond, cleverly"

OK… where to from here???

Former US Secretary of Defence -Donald Rumsfeld