DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 087 686 SO 006 991

AUTHOR Chapin, EmersonTITLE Social Change in the United States and Japan. A

Wingspread Conference.INSTITUTION Japan Society,'Inc., New York, N.Y.; Johnson

Foundation, Inc., Racine, Nis.PUB DATE Sep 73NOTE 21p.AVAILABLE FROM The Johnson Foundation, Racine, Wisconsin 53401 and

Japan Society, Inc., 333 East 47th Street, New York,N.Y. 10017

EDRS PRICE HF-$0.65 HC-S3.29DESCRIPTORS Comparative Analysis; Conference Reports; Cross

Cultural Studies; Developed Nations; EconomicClimate; Economic Progress; *Futures (of Society);Information Theory; *International Programs;Knowledge Level; Productivity; *Social Change; SocialProblems; Social Systems; *Sociocultural Patterns;Socioeconomic Influences; Urban Environment

IDENTIFIERS *Japan; KnowledgeExplosion; Quality of Life

ABSTRACTThis report .describes a one-day conference intended

to advance knowledge concerning social change in Japan and the UnitedStates. Characterizing the change as one frou industrial productiondominance to knouledge production dominance; the conferen:e addressedrelated questions such as defining post-industrial society,informational society, and "quality of life" and interpreting theconsequences of those definitions. Reported here are the comments ofnine speakers from America and Japan on four topics -- Environmentand the Urban Situation, Information, the Economy, and Social andGovernmental Organizations -- each discussed within the foregoingcontext but from the two differing nationalistic points of view.(J H)

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REPORT OF A WINGSPREADCONFEREN

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SOCIAL CHANGEIN THE

, UNITED STATESAND JAPAN

A Wingspread Conferenceconvened byJapan Society, Inc,andThe Johnson FoundationNovember 1972

Report prepared byEmerson Chapin

1

CONTENTS

Foreword 3

Introduction 5

Speakers & Their Subjects 6

The Environment andThe Urban Situation 9

Information 11

The Economy 13

Social and GovernmentalOrganization 15

Summary 19

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FOREWORD

Johnson Foundation Programs inUnited States-Japan Relations

The strengthening of United States-Japan relations is a long-standingprogram goal of The JohnsonFouhdation. Japanese post-warindustrial strength was movingforward steadily in the late fiftiesat the time this new Foundationbegan to mold its internationalprograms. Early projects includedexchange of persons from Japanand the United States, includingscientists concerned with thepeaceful uses of atomic energy.In 1961, a group of Japaneseindustrialists met at Wingspreadwith United States businessmento discuss productivity motivation.Thus, we have a sense of kinshipin recalling early handclasps anddiscussions with colleagues fromJapan. Those early relationshipscan now be viewed as a forecastwhen one considers the intricate,interdependent economic relation-ship of.Japan and America and itsoverriding importance. Thus, formore than a decade The JohnsonFoundation has cooperated inprograms which brought toWingspread, its conference centerin Racine, Wisconsin, Japaneseprominent in industry, science,libraries, and university circles.

The Japanese-American,Seminar ofthe American Academy of Artsand Sciences has received supportfrom The Johnson Foundation since1967, when the first seminar in theseries of five was convened at theEast-West Center of the Universityof Hawaii. The third and fifthmeetings of the Seminar were held

at Wingspread in 1969 and 1973. known for his New York TimesParticipants included former United articles on Japanese affairs.States Ambassador to Japan, Edwin Published by the Japan Society0. Reischauer; former Under tDe Johnson Foundation, thisSecretary of State George Ball; report has been distributed widely,Professor Marshall Shulman, and and is still available.other distinguisheV Americans.Japanese colleagues included BuichiOoishi, Member of the Diet; MichioRoyama, then Assistant Director ofInternational House in Tokyo; andOsamu Miyoshi, Editorial Writer ofthe Mainichi Shimbun, as well asother economists and academicians.The Johnson Foundation hasappreciated the privilege of beins apartner in the Seminar series withthe American Academy of Artsand Sciences.

As the profile of Japan becamemore prominent on the worldscreen, Johnson Foundation programactivity in this area moved onsteadily. The Johnson Foundationproposed to the Japan Society, Inc.,(New York).in 1969, a conferenceon "Japan and the United Statesin the 1970's." When this conferencewas convened at Wingspread, theprogram included presentations by:James Abegglen, specialist in inter-national organization and marketingproblems and author of the studyof Japanese management methods,"The Japanese Factory"; James W.Morley, Professor of Government,Columbia University, formerlyspecial assistant to the Ambassadorat the United States Embassy inTokyo; and Herman Kahn, Directorof the Hudson Institute of NewYork, author of books on defenseand foreign policy issues. A reporton this Wingspread conference waswritten by Emerson Chapin, well

In 1972, the Second Japanese-United States Conference onLibraries and Information Sciencein Higher Education was held atWingspread, organized under theauspices of the American LibraryAssociation (Advisory Committeefor Liaison with Japanese Libraries).Mr. Warren Tsuneishi of theLibra-ry of Congress OrientaliaDivision, served as chairman.Participants included leaders inlibrary science from Japan and theUnited States.

The publication which you nowhold reports on a 1972 Wingspreadconference convened by the JapanSociety and 7 he Johnson Foundatioon the subject, "Social Change inthe United States and Japan." TheWingspread meeting was a sequelto the seminar held at Japan House(New York) on the subject, "TheInformational Revolution TheUnited States and Japan in thePost-Industrial Age." Three daysof thought and discussion servedas preparation for the Wingspreadmeeting and its invited audienceof 175 Midwestern opinion leaders.Distinguished scholars, fourJapanese and an equal number ofAmericans, brought to the NewYork and Wisconsin discussions ahigh level of thoughtful analysis.This publication identifies thoseJapanese and American colleagues

3

in the best way by presentingtheir respective contributions tothe subject.

The large attendance at theWingspread' meeting was abarometer of recognition of Japanas a world economic power, andthe high significance of UnitedStates-Japan relations. It is ourhope that the ideas generated byspeakars and audience at theWingspread meeting will havewide influence.

It was with pride that The JohnsonFoundation cooperated with theJapan Society in this conference,working with Mr. Rodney Armstrong,Executive Director, and Mr. F. RoyLockheimer, Associate ExecutiveDirector, respectively. We werepleased that Tateo Suzuki, Japan'sConsul General in Chicago, greetedthe conference on behalf of hisgovernment and participated inthe Wingspread meeting.

In this project the ultimate goalis human the use of resources ofboth nations for an improved wayof life, materially and spiritually.

Leslie PaffrathPresidentThe Johnson Foundation

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INTRODUCTION

Has society in the United States,Japan and other advanced countriesentered a nemera, known as thepost-industrial society or as theinformational society?

Do continued economic growthand technological developmentnecessarily produce a higher livingstandard and a better quality oflife? And how can such mattersas "quality of life" be measuredand judged?

Why is it that the great advancesin knowledge of recent decades, farfrom resolving mankind's chronicproblems, seem to have been

raccompanied by increased socialunrest, greater cleavages in societyand a widespread sense ofdissatisfaction and frustration?

These questions were among thosetaken up by nine experts fromthe United States and Japan ina one-day conference on "SocialChange in the United States andJapan." The session, sponsored byThe Johnson Foundation and theJapan Society, Inc., was heldNov. 18, 1972, at Wingspread, TheJohnson Foundation's conferencecenter at Racine, Wisconsin. Morethan 100 invited scholars, civilservants, journalists, foundationrepresentatives and businessmenparticipated.

Few hard-and-fast conclusionswere reached indeed, one of thepoints of basic agreement amongthe experts was the peril of

trying to forecast the future inany detail. But there were manyshared opinions and judgments onthe characteristics of recent socialchange, the impact of changingvalues, and the major social,economic and political problemsthat lie ahead in Japan and theUnited States.

There was agreement thatcontinuing economic growth hadnot proved a panacea for allsocial ills but in fact had heightenedthem in some instances. Therewas a shared .encern over urbanand environmental problems. Therewas discussion of ways in whichdemocratic political participationmay be retained and increased asgovernment becomes.morespecialized and the mass mediamore powerful. Illustrations weregiven of the effects of an"informational overload" and thenear-instantaneous communicationthat characterizes the present age.Repeatedly, the discussion seemedto return to the basic question ofhow the quality of life, the levelof societal welfare, could besustained and improved.

The public meeting at Wingspreadhad been preceded by three daysof private working sessions at theJapan Society's headquarters inNew York. There the expertspresented papers and engaged indetailed consideration of fourgeneral areas of examination: TheEnvironment and the UrbanSituation; Information; EConomy; andSocial and GovernmentalOrganization.

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SPEAKERS & THEIR SUBJECTS

The Environment and TheUrban Situation

United States

NATHAN GLAZER, Professor ofEducation and Social Structure,Graduate School of Education,Harvard University.

Japan

KENICHI TOMINAGA, Departmentof Sociology, University of Tokyo.

Information

United States

CHARLES FRANKEL, Old DominionProfessor of Philosophy and PublicAffairs, Columbia University.

Japan

YOSHIMI UCHIKAWA, Director,Institute of Newspaper Research,University of Tokyo.

The Economy

United States

ROBERT L. HEILBRONER, NormanThomas Professor of Economics,New School for Social Research.

Japan

HIROFUMI UZAWA, Faculty ofEconomics, University of Tokyo.

F. ROY LOCKHEIMER

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ROBERT L. HEILBRONER HIROFUMI UZAWA

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JAMES W. MORLEY

L'SAMUEL P. HUNTINGTON JOJI WATANUKI

Social and GovernmentalOrganization

United States

SAMUEL P. HUNTINGTON, FrankG. Thomas, Professor of Government,Center for International Affairs,Harvard University.

Japan

JOJI WATANUKI, Professor ofSociology, Institute of InternationalRelations or Advanced Studies onPeace and Development in Asia,Sophia University.

JAMES W. MORLEY, Director ofthe East Asian Institute of ColumbiaUniversity, served as the conferencechairman and has edited theproceedings of the full conference,to be published by the JapanSociety, Inc.

F. ROY LOCKHEIMER, AssociateExecutive Director of the JapanSociety, Inc., was the conferenceco-chairman.

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Dr. James W. Morley, the ConferenceChairman, dealt in his openingremarks with the paradox of a newstage in history in which, it hadbeen believed, "problems would besusceptible to solution by advancedknowledge," and yet in which"frustration and discontent weresweeping over this land."

According to the general conceptof "post-industrial society," hesaid, "not capital or labor, butknowledge and information would beleading ingredients of production":it would be a society in which"intellectual leadership would playthe key role." But simultaneously,he said, the United States wasdisrupted by strife and discontent,student revolts, racial conflicts andeconomic recession. Politics wasagitated by the war in Vietnamand the social fabric was torn bythe challenge of a counterculture.

"The people were divided betweenthose demanding more change andthose who were dug in to preventit," Dr. Morley declared. Similarunrest prevailed in other countries,he noted; in Japan, despiteprosperity and peace, there wereurban and environmental crisesand there was "the shock totraditional values arising frompeople's being caught up in a kindof maelstrom of change theydid not fully comprehend."

"We are gathered today to try toface that paradox," he explained."Why, when the promise seemedso great, is the performanceso unsatisfying?"

The Environment and theUrban Situation

Dr. Nathan Glazer, thefirst speaker, noted asa paradox that "whenwe think of post-industrial society, wetend to be optimistic:

post-indust lal society seems toindicate affluence, elimination ofhard and dirty work, expansion ofknowledge, greater capacity to useinformation. Yet, the kinds ofinformation one sees coming intobeing and the kinds of information-handling capacity don't seemdirectly relevant to our mostseriously felt urban problems."

He listed what he said were "thefelt discontents of the largerAmerican city" in rough order ofhow they affect people: crime,racial problems and integration,high taxes, housing, and thequality of urban services, includingtransportation and congestion. It isthe problems at the lower endof the list that are most susceptibleto change under the informationalimpact, he said, and there remainsthe considerable problem "ofhaving useful knowledge which, forpolitical or social reasons, is noteasy to apply." As an example,Dr. Glazer recounted how theNew York City government hadintroduced a systems analysismethod to determine the mostefficient deployment of sanitationworkers to places where, and at

times when, most garbageaccumulated, only to find thatlabor unions and even state lawsmade it difficult to after theexisting patterns.

But the basic urban problems, hedeclared, "very often come downto problems of race in theAmerican cities." Though the-black middle class faces prejudiceand political conflict, its problemsof racial integration and educationalintegration are not insuperable, heasserted. "The greatest problems donot arise when we deal withblacks and whites of similar socialstatus," he pointed out; the majorproblem is that the urban poor arelargely black poor. "It is thecombination of class problems andrace problems in one fairlyexplosive mixture that makes ithardest to apply new knowledgein the cities."

Dr. Glazer recalled the hope thatwas placed 20 years ago inprograms of urban renewalthereplacement of old housing withnew housing. "Visions of new andrebuilt American central citiesarose," he said. But the programquickly ran into the question ofdifferential distribution of whitesand blacks among the poor andthe better off. "To rebuild thecity slums meant to move out theblacksand urban renewalbecame known as 'Negro removal.The problem was to find otherliving space for poor blacks: thewhites did not want to acceptthem and in some cases themiddle-class blacks didn't want them,either. Thus in many cities urban`renewal came to a halt: "socialproblems made it difficult to applysophisticated approaches."

9

Dr. Glazer also examined theconcept of building "new towns,"in which it would be possible tocreate a new community afresh,"without the old unions, oldhousing, old distribution of people."But, he noted, the population ofthe new town will inevitably bethe more economically activepart of the populatiOn, "a whiterpart of the population, while leftbehind in the central city will be ahigher concentration of the blacks."Thus the new town programs "willfurther concentrate social problemsin one area of the central city,and create protected enclavesoutside."

Dr. Glazer declared that he did notwant to sound too pessimistic,and observed that improvement ofthe economic status of blackswould moderate the social problem."Once the impact of social changehits both races in the UnitedStates more equally, then we canapply new knowledge moresuccessfully in many areas." Buthe warned that this wouldnecessarily be a gradual process.

Professor KenichiTominaga began byobserving that theaverage income for aworker's household inJapan had risen by

almost 10 per cent annually overthe last 20 years, "but it can'tbe said that the degree ofsatisfaction with life has showncomparable improvement." In fact,recent surveys showed that morepeople felt life had become more"difficult" than had found improve-ment in their living conditions.Until recently, he said, "most

10

Japanese people did not realizethat rapid economic growth couldcause the quality of life todeteriorate." He cited air and waterpollution, the growing problem ofwaste disposal, traffic congestionand rapid increases in land values.Thus, high economic growth hadbegun to change the valuestandards of the Japanese people.Emphasis is shifting, he explained,from "economic growth primacyto societal welfare primacy."

The Tokyo University professorexplained what he meant by theterm societal welfare: it is some-thing "not to be interpreted in thenarrow, sense of public welfaregovernment aid to the poor, orold-age pensionsbut a widerconcept, a basis of human happinessor well-being in the social life ofthe people."

"EcOnomic welfare," Dr. Tominagadeclared, "depends upon satisfactioncoming from economic goodspurchased in the market, whereassocial welfare, or societal welfare,depends on the satisfaction thatcomes from social welfare resourcesavailable in daily life, includingall sorts of need-gratifying goods,economic or non-economic, naturalor non-natural, tangible or non-tangible." In this category, he listedsuch items as income, savings,pension, caloric intake, amount ofliving space, rent, public parkspace, degree of pollution, crimeand suicide rates, and trafficcongestion.

Dr. Tominaga described a projectin which he sought to measuresocietal welfare levels in Japanese

urban areas, cataloguing a list of180 items affecting human life,having them evaluated byprofessional experts according to ascale running from "tolerance" to"fulfillment," and classifying theresults. The conclusion, he said,was that there had been measurabledecline in housing, transportationand the natural environment, whileother areas of life showed improve-ment. The aim of the project, hesaid, is to establish a "quality-of-life index" as a means of settingpolicy goals for urban administration

"Goal-setting so far in economicplanning has been in terms ofeconomic measures alone, such asgross national product and growth

.rate," he declared. "Measuringwelfare levels and establishing amethodology of social indicatorsare the bases of social policy andsocial planning, as distinguishedfrom economic policy and economicplanning in the narrow sense."This can serve as a means "tofind appropriate ways of allocatinggovernment expenditures towelfare fields on the basis ofrational findings."

Discussion: In the discussion periodthat followed, the first questionwas a request for a more specificdefinition of "post-industrialsociety". Dr. Nathan Glazerexplained that the term, firstused by Daniel Bell of HarvardUniversity, related to the conceptof change in advanced societies.Primarily, he said, it refers tochange in the work force "adrop, or at least stability, in thenumber of workers in industrialprocesses, and a rise in thenumber involved in services and

in information-handling processes."According to this cormept, "whena society moves from a situationin which it handles materialquantities, such as steel and coal --which it is still doing, of courseto a point where it is handlinginformation, as in computers andthe educational system, then manyother changes follow and societyhas become rather different."But, Dr. Glazer added, "whetherthis has really happened, andwhether society does becomedifferent when this happens, aresubjects of discussion."

The speakers were asked theirviews of the merits of a systemof negative income tax andguaranteed income. ProfessorGlazer explained that the concepthad not yet become widely knownor popular in the United States,partly because of its complexitiesand partly because of conpern over,maintaining work indeOve,:if abasic guaranteed incomes provided.Dr. Tominaga said that the conceptwas just beginning to becomeknown in Japan, but added thatunequal distribution of income wasnot so great a problem in hiscountry: Professor Uzawa arguedthat the setting of a minimummonetary income entailing cashpayments could itself have theinjurious effect of raising pricesof necessary goods and services,contributing to an inflationaryspiral. The key, he suggested, liesin providing more social servicesrather than assuring a minimumcash income.

The speakers were asked whatcould be done to provide "politicalclout" for the proportionately

small sector of the populationafflicted with poverty problems.Professor Glazer said in reply thatwhile the poor were a minority,"many of their interests coincidewith other interests" that mayhave greater political impact.Professor Tominaga commentedthat the Japanese cities had nomajor racial problems and thattheir difficulties were "urbanproblems rather than povertyproblems." He also explained thatinequalities in income distributionin Japan were largely urban-ruraldisparities created in the processesof industrialization, with the maindistress found in rural regions.

Information

Professor ChadesFrankel voiced skepticismabout the concept ofpost-industrial society.The concept provides auseful label for calling

attention to certain new features inour life, he commented. Ittheoretically implies "a shift in thekinds of work people engage inmore service activities, an increasein leisure, a decline in ideologicaltypes of thinking and a lessening ofthe sense of class struggle." It isa useful concept "to the extentthat you don't swallow it whole-heartedly."

"It is not true that we have gonethrough a knowledge explosionwith respect to human and socialsciences. At Most, we've beenhearing the popping of paperbags, and a great deal of windhas come out." He noted usefulprogress in the natural andbiological sciences, bit "in fact,"

he added, "we know precious littleabout how to increase people'sability to read."

"Where we have had increases inknowledge, there are limits in ourcapacity to use this knowledge,"Professor Frankel asserted. "Vestedinterests get in the way." One ofthe great blocks to the introductionof new educational knowledge,he observed, is the resistance ofteachers, who "have beenaccustomed to doing things incertain ways, so that introductionof new knowledge is a form ofexpropriation it expropriates theirskills." Where there are opposinginterests, Dr. Frankel said,"increased knowledge can some-times simply sharpen people'ssense of their opposition to others."

"The post-industrial society," Dr.Frankel asserted, "includes animplicit assumption of automaticprogressthat, at least in certainrespects, we are going to getbetter; that there's going to bemore rationality in society, moreknowledge. This is in part an actof faith." It is assumed thatscience will automatically continueto progress, but this actually isdependent on a number of factors,including maintenance of govern-ment allocations for social infra-structure. Furthermore, he declared,major advances usually have beena consequence of penetratinginsights by scientific geniuseshementioned Einstein as an exampleand there is no absolute guaranteethat genius will recur: "it's a beton the fall of the genetic dice."

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In a critical appraisal of socialscientists, Professor Frankel assertedthat "the increase of knowledge inthe physical sciences has increasedthe prestige of accredited socialinquirers. It has increased themarket demand for what theyproduce and has led to a naturaleagerness on their part to sellwhat they produce. To a consider-able extent, what they sell has notproduced the results they havesuggested might be achieved." Thishas contributed to "the waves ofirrationalism that engulf us," andhas "led society at large to condemnrational methods." He called for"much greater discipline or modestyamong social scientists."

Next, in what appeared to be arebuttal to Professor Tominaga'spresentation, Dr. Frankel asked:"Can you quantify the welfarefunction?" He inquired whether"what is good for society can insome sense be set forth with thesame precision and impersonalitywith which you set forth conditionsfor building a bridge." Again andagain, he said, "those who canproduce hard information, butinformation which is narrow andneglects key values, take priorityover those who have only softhistorical information or commonsense to offer."

He said that "it is more apt tospeak of a communicationsrevolution in our society than aknowledge revolution" and declaredthat "the information overloadreaches a point of no return."Through modern communication,all of the world's suffering anddisaster is made immediate to theindividual: "I think this is an

12

emotional overload of considerableproportions, and this may help toexplain outbreaks of massirrationalism."

Also as a result of high-speedcommunication, Dr. Frankelargued, "We live in an internationalworld, a communicative world inwhich I know much more aboutwhat is going on in the Paris peacenegotiations than about what isgoing on on my own road and amongmy own neighbors. The scene inwhich it is possible for us to takeaction is one about which wereceive very few communications,while the scene in which we donot have a chance to actwherewe are merely spectators is onewe receive constant communicationsabout. This causes difficulties,particularly when a democraticculture tells us: 'You're responsiblefor what's happening.

In concluding, Professor Frankelobserved: "We've been taught by amarket society to deal withquestions as technical rather thanmoral. We often tend to deal withthe technical and forget themoral. We face broad newproblems in education and morals,and this will require substantialreworking of present educationalpractices and present moral ideas."

Professor YoshimiUchikawa introducedhis talk by saying thatwhile Dr. Frankel'sapproach had beenphilosophic, his was

realistic and dealt specifically"with the change in socialcommunication in Japan." In the

last 10 years, he said, the influenceof the mass media in Japan hasincreased enormously and, withthe impact of the computer, "theinformation industry has come tothe fore." Japanese society "is inthe maelstrom of tremendousvolumes of information, but not allhas essential meaning for thepeople." In fact, "almost 90 percent of all the information trans-mitted through the media iswasted." Thus a primary need is todevelop a greater selectivecapability through education.

Professor Uchikawa referred to asurvey conducted in Tokyo and_Yokohama by N.H.K., the JapanBroadcasting Corporation, indicatingthat respondents were mostinterested in hearing about things"close to themselves." The newemphasis on family and personallife "has created a new demandfor diverse and extensive inforMationdealing with livelihood and use ofleisure time," as well as meetingspecific needs of individuals andsmall segments of society. Hereported that there was "a demandfor the type of information thatinvolves people emotionallyrather than rationally."

The rise of television has changedthe function of the printed pressfrom that of basic reporting to thatof elaborating, explaining andbackgrounding the news that peoplefirst hear through radio andtelevision, Professor Uchikawapointed out. But he expressedconfidence that Japan's majornewspapers, which are among theworld's largest and mosttechnically advanced, faced nofundamental threat from the broad-

cast media and will continue asthe basic means of conveyingdetailed information.

He discussed a new medium ofexpression known as "mini-komi,"or mini-communications publications.These are mainly mimeographedperiodicals, including undergroundorgans, circulated largely amongyoung people. "It is characteristicof the information revolution thatyoung people are trying to maketheir own voices heard," he declared."This is an expression of dis-content and distrust of the massmedia; it i3 one of the newproblems that the Japanese pressis facing."

Explaining that the Japanese presshad engaged in extensive techno-logical innovation in recent years,Professor Uchikawa examined theprospects for home facsimilenewspapers. More than 90 percent of Japanese newspapers noware distributed by home delivery,he said, but rising labor costs,traffic congestion and otherproblems threaten this system.Consequently there has been muchinterest in a system whereby anewspaper could be printed by an ,electronic receiver in the home. Atpresent, he said, the costs ofthe receiver and the special paperrequired are prohibitive, but if thiscan be resolved, "we foresee thestart of the home facsimile news-paper in Japan, and the structureof social communication will begreatly changed."

Discussion: A questioner askedhow much social change actuallyhad been brought about by the

introduction of high-level technology.Professor Frankel responded that inlarge organizations inertia or thestatus quo increasingly tended toprevail because, in the vast flow ofcommunication, "messages from theoutside don't get to be heard soeasily." During the nineteen-sixties,when the war in Vietnam was atits height, he said, there was suchan extraordinary amount of highlysophisticated information availablefrom morning to night that agovernment official at the receivingend not only "couldn't think" but"heard only what the peopleengaged in the effort, with a vestedinterest in continuing it, told him."

He told of the "greater vulner-ability of our system to idiocies ofvarious sorts," explaining that "veryminor events can, by dint of masscommunications, become majorsocial events." Thus a studentdemonstration at ColumbiaUniversity in the spring of 1968"became a riot at Columbia becausepeople saw themselves on televisionthat night and were encouragedto go on." The demonstrationat Columbia helped to provokeone at the Sorbonne and thoseinvolved in the Columbia outbreaks"saw themselves achieving results inParis. Soon they were exchangingmessages at the expense of thesystem," Dr. Frankel declared, withthe commercial television networksserving as a communications link.

As a consequence, Frankel observed,"a boy like Mark Rudd," one ofthe Columbia radical leaders, "wasfor a time a major figure on the worldstage who helped encourage some-thing happening in France that16 or 18 months later undoubtedly

had a great deal to do withde Gaulle's leaving the world stage."

"Think what Jesus Christ couldhave done, in his time, if he hadonly had the mass media!" hecommented.

Dr. Frankel noted "assassinationsand waves of assassinations" and"hijackings and waves ofhijackings" as a result of mediacoverage. Predicticn of the futureis made more difficult, he asserted,because "the range of both idiocyand charisma is greatly increased."

Asked whether intellectuals had losttouch with the mainstream ofAmerica, Dr. Frankel declared: "Idon't think it is the function ofintellectuals to articulate for MiddleAmerica. They are critics of society,they are not supposed to speakfor it." At the same time, heacknowledged that intellectualsshould not confine themselves tothe ivory tower but "must moveamong the mass of Americansmore freely," else their criticismsare likely to be ignorant andparochial.

The Economy

Professor RobertHeilbroner explainedthat he would brieflyexamine a few questionsabout the nature ofthe post-industrial

society, wh'ch he characterized as"complicated and a bit elusive."

By post-industrial society, Professor13

Heilbroner asked, "do we meanthe end of a society in which thecharacteristics of industrial societyhave disappeared?" What, he asked,was industrial society? It was asystem, he said, in which "themost important political dynamiteof the society rested in an industrialworking class." Since early in thiscentury, he explained, the blue-collar sector, or industrial workingclass, has become relativelystable, and "what has changed isthat a new, group has taken overthe dynamite and the dynamismthe so-called white-collar group,occupied in that enormousdiversity of occupations called theservice sector, which includesgovernment, theater, domesticservants, a heterogeneous variety."Equally important, he said, has beenthe major decline of rural societyover the last century and a shiftto the scene in which industrialand post industrial societies takeplacethe city."

Post-industrial society, he went on,"is sometimes talked of as asociety in which knowledge inputshave grown enormously andcontributed to this curve of growthon which we are all ascendingtoward nirvana." But, he commented,such intangibles as "inputs ofknowledge" are hard to count. "Theone thing that is surely trueabout this new era if it is a newera is that whether or not weknow more, we are certainlyschooled more." With manypersons now spending 20 to 25years in school and study, "webecome accustomed to an atmos-phere of schooling, and I suspectone's outlook, what one expectsfrom society, changes accordingly."

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"Does this mean the end of theseries of problems that we havecalled 'capitalist problems'?" Di.Heilbroner asked. He noted that"two classic scenarios" aboutcapitalism had been largelydestroyed: one, the Marxist thesisof the downfall of the capitalistsystem, and the other, the viewthat "capitalism would produceendless quantities of growth, andeconomic grOwth would bringsocial harmony." Capitalism, hecontinued, is diverse, but itgenerally is characterized by unevenincome distribution and markedconcentration of industrial wealth.These elements have not changed,"and the movement into the post-industrial, schooled, service sectoris not going to change them."Capitalism has been marked bycertain disfunctions, includingdepression; and inflation, a newproblem, has proved veryrecalcitrant. Thus, he summarized,there will be a persistence ofendemic problems that arerecognizable, in terms of the oldera, but there will be "somechanges that do mark the 'post-industrial age' as perhaps a newperiod Within capitalism."

One of the most significantchanges, Professor Heilbroner said,is a "growing recognition of thenecessity to manage society in theface of certain problems thatemerge from its very post-industrialnature" such as environmentaldecay and the aspirations of aschooled, white-collar workingclass. "This seems to give rise to abusiness-government coordinationthat goes under the name ofplanning."

A second major change, he said,has been "the rise to a newposition of influence withinsociety of a professional elite."This group, including economists,sociologists and politicalscientists, is regularly consulted bygovernment and by largecorporations, in hopes of findinganswers to persisting problems.Thus, "there is a drift of influenceinto the hands of professionalgroups trying to cope with thekinds of problems arising in thenew society."

Professor HirofumiUzawa voiced pessimismover the ability oforthodox economics todeal with current .challenges. He described

the economics profession as in astate of confusion and said thereseemed to be "growing sentimentin the profession that the existingpolitical framework is not able tocope with the number of moreserious political and social problemsthat have arisen in countries ofwhich the main institutions arethose of capitalist society." And,he added, "the economicsprofession has not come up withany answers."

He told of his shock at finding,after a dozen years spent awayfrom Japan, that the actualconditions of life there in the mid-nineteen-sixties were "so different"from the impression given by thepublished statistics. "How is itthat the economics professioncan produce these figures, whichdon't come close to what ishappening in the society?" Oneexplanation, he said, was that the

existing market society, "in whicheverything is appropriated toprivate individuals and the marketresolves the conflicts," makes noprovision for social resources,quality of life and the environ-ment. These things do not showup as income or in data on grossnational product.

In Japan, he said, "a great dealof freedom has been accorded tounconstrained enterpreneurialactivity." The government policyhas been one in which "industrial-ization comes first, then employ-ment will be increased and incomewill be raised." After that, peoplewould take care of their ownwelfare needs by constructingnecessary facilities, such ashospitals. But this system has notproved satisfactory, he asserted:"What we have done has been tobuild a wonderful, efficient factorysystem or industrial complex, whileneglecting the construction of over-head capital needed for living andthe natural environment."

Dr. Uzawa commented hopefullythat he thought he now sawgrowing public awareness "of theenormous social burden borne bythe Japanese in general, and thepoor in particular, associated withthe process of rapid industrializationand rapid economic growth." Hesaid that the Japanese "have seenthe need to shift priority from aneconomics-first, industry-firstprinciple to one that cares morefor equality of real incomedistribution, preservation ofnature and construction of aliving environment," but predictedthat it would take years to achievea fundamental change.

Discussion: In the question period,the two economists were askedwhether continual labor pressurefor higher wages, and the inflationthis produced, left "any alternativeto an absolute planned economy."Professor Heilbroner replied thatthis was a "hard" question and hewould give an equally hard answer.He noted that periodic wageincreases obtained in industry weregenerally matched, or even exceeded,by corresponding increases inproductivity, but that the realproblem lay in sectors in whichthere was no productivity increase"the municipal sector, the stategovernment sector, serviceindustries in general, in whichproductivity is not susceptible tothe kinds of cranking up one canget in industry."

Dr. Heilbroner noted "a kind offree-for-all" in this area of bar-gaining and suggested that thiswould be a critical factor in theeffort to control what had becomeendemic inflation in most capitalistsocieties. He expressed the viewthatshort of having a high un-employment level or a society withunusually strong internal disciplinethe only way to deal with this is"to have a series of not veryeffective but quite necessary ad hocinterventions, called wage and pricecontrols, income policies and allthe rest, which seems to be theroad down which all the advancedcountries are going" in otherwords, a managed economy.

Professor Uzawa drew laughter whenhe suggested that he might have"a cure for inflation." He went onto explain that a modest rate ofmonetary inflation, in the area of

3 per cent, might be madeacceptable if it were accompaniedby the provision of essential socialservices to the poor and the elderlythose who suffer most from theeffects of inflation. The key, hesaid, is "to devise some mixture ofproviding money and services-in-kind in such a way that it ispossible to contain direct priceincreases at a reasonable level."

Social and GovernmentalOrganization

Dr. Samuel Huntington,introducing his topic,said he had gained afeeling during thegroup's discussions inNew York earlier in

the week "that while we mayincrease our knowledge and under-standing of problems, this does notnecessarily lead to any compensatingincrease in our capability forsolving them." Instead, he said,"there is a gap developing here,and one which is quite clearly arecipe for frustration."

Remarking that political predictionis the most difficult form ofprediction, he nevertheless venturedto outline five trends he discernedin relation to the evolution of post-industrial society. The first is the"rise of a new middle classincreased power for white-collar,technical, professional, bureaucratic,well-educated groups." Then he toldhis audience: "If you want to seewhat the emerging ruling class inpost-industrial society looks like,look at the person sitting next toyou in this room. Here we have avery good cross-section of thepeople who will constitute the

15

dominant social force in a post-industrial society."

There are also declining socialforces, he stated, citing theresidents of the central cities andthe industrial, blue-collar workers.However, declining sectors fre-quently show relatively largepolitical power "evidence that theless important a group becomes inAmerican society, the more power-ful it may become in the govern-ment." He described farmers as anotable example, and said it wasconceivable that the industrialworking class and the centralcities, and individuals like MayorDaley of Chicago and GeorgeMeany, the labor leader, "maycontinue to play an importantpolitical role for some time to come."

Second, Dr. Huntington, like otherspeakers, noted higher educationallevels under which perhaps 50 percent of the younger population hadbeen exposed to college. This couldcreate a new type of gap in society"a difference in political outlookand values between those whohave been to college and thosewho have not," as well as between"those who receive a more liberal,humanistic education and thosewho receive a more specialized,technical education." By and large,"persons who are more highlyeducated tend to be more interestedin politics and mo:e politicallyparticipant."

Third, Dr. Huntington said, at atime when familiar politicalorganizations tend to be on thedecline, the executive bureaucracyand the mass media are emerging

16

as two key institutional groups,with a potential for cleavage andconflict between them. "Each needsthe other and each tries to usethe other, and there is going to becontinuous competition betweenthem." He spoke of the PentagonPapers case as "only the biggestbattle in a war that seems likelyto go on for some time."

He then took up a matter raisedearlier by Professor Heilbroner,.which he described as the politicalproblem associated with inflation:the increase in labor costs foressential government services inwhich there is no correspondingproductivity rise. He cited as anexample the problem of a mayorcaught between the pay demandsof policemen, firemen, sanitationworkers and other civil servantson the one hand and taxpayerresistance on the other. "How doyou reconcile the problems of apolitical system in which you havecompetitive elections and in whichyou also have fairly wide-opencollective bargaining for publicsector employees?" he asked. "Byand large," he went on, "we don'thave a tax system in this countrywhich can meet the demandsplaced upon government, and thereis no indication we are going toget one in the immediate future."The Japanese, he added, "aremuch better off, in the sense thatJapan can float up to higherlevels of government expenditureon their 11 per cent growth ofgross national product each year.The tax crunch doesn't play thesame role in their society."

Finally Professor Huntington sur-veyed questions raised by post-

industrial values and examined theproblem of whether peopleaccustomed to relative affluencewould face up to such questionsas military security. There is "apost-industrial culture, withemphasis on intellectual self-fulfillment that people born into,if not affluence, at least a com-fortable existence, do not worryabout economic problems: theyhave other concerns." He notedthat the mood among collegeundergraduates was "oow clearlyantagonistic to the idea of payingtaxes to support military forces,and to supporting large-scalemilitary forces," and asked: "Doesthis mean that a post-industrialsociety may be at the mercy ofsocieties that have not reachedthat fortunate state and are capableof maintaining large-scale militaryforces?" Does it mean "that a post-industrial society must necessarilybe politically and militarily iso-lationist, even if for other reasonsit may need to be deeply involvedin the international society?"

"If you have a society that is morehighly educated and more partici-pant, whose dominant institutionsare the bureaucracy and the mediaboth of which operate on peopleand don't furnish. opportunities forparticipationour political systemseems to be weakening in thetraditional sense and it seems tome there is need for new typesof political institutions which willfurnish channels for participation,"he said.

A further problem, he asserted,concerns the capacity for decision-making. "Every society, even afamily, requires a certain measure

of deference, authority, hierarchyall concepts that are fundamentallyat odds with post-industrial values.The question is whether there isn'tsome sort of conflict between post-industrialism in this sense and therequisites of society."

He ended on a whimsical note,observing that he might havesounded rather pessimistic, "but allthese conflicts will emerge in theirfull glory only if post-industrialsociety emerges in its full glory.and maybe it won't."

Professor Joji Watanukiargued that whilechange and moderniza-tion had occurred inJapanese society,traditional values were

still deeply rooted. The grouployalty basis, the high degree ofsolidarity, the sense of unity amongbusiness enterprises, are alltraceable to persisting traditionalvalues and social structure.Japanese politics is still geared toold-style village values, even thoughsome new-style politicians whoseappeal is based primarily onpersonality and personal attractive-ness, have been emerging in thecities.

The Japanese bureaucracy is highlyefficient, Dr. Watanuki said, andalthough it was decentralized in thereforms that followed World War 11,it was subsequently recentralized.Such a strong, centralized bureau-cracy "is well suited to the arrivalof an informational societytoimprovement of the technology ofinformation=and it may wellbecome more efficient." But such aprospect is not necessarily

welcome, he said, "for this kind ofcentralization might restrictindividual liberty and the othervalues that we must preserve ifwe believe in democracy."

Professor Watanuki noted also theemergence of new value standardsemphasizing more local autonomy,welfare and concepts of individualhappiness, and expressed hope thatthese would serve as a counter-balance to traditional centralizationas the need of expanded govern-mental functions grows. He voicedassurance that "since the postwarreforms, there is no possibilitythat our nation will turn to atotalitarian or authoritariansociety." Thus he foresaw that thenineteen-seventies would be a"waiting period" in which thetraditional values and socialstructure would persist but wouldbe modified by new values andnew-style politics. "Perhaps in thenineteen-eighties the shape willbecome more clear."

Discussion: The first question askedfrom the floor was: "What can welearn from what seems to be thesuccessful union of business,government and finance in Japan?"Professor Uzawa replied that whilemuch attention has been focusedon the economic accomplishmentsof such cooperation, less attentionhas been paid to the welfareaspects and the environmentalconsequences. Under officialJapanese policies, most investmenthas been directed toward the needsof industrial development, butthis "has had a rather negativeeffect on the over-all harmoniousdevelopment of the Japaneseeconomy." The government'seconomic policies also contributed

to the continued accumulation ofsurpluses in the nation's balanceof payments, which has hadinjurious international effects,Dr. Uzawa asserted. "The govern-ment should act as an umpire.Too much bias in favor of aparticular sector of the economymay end up in a very distorteduse of public resources."

Dr. Frankel observed that ifAmericans knew how, it would begood to emulate that feature ofJapanese schooling that contributedto such a well-educated and well-motivated labor force. In general,he declared, "our school systemis just not as good as the Japanesein bringing people to learn things,definite and delicate skills, and inteaching them to respect exactingperformancethe sense of work-manship, doing a job well."Japan, he said, "has the besteducated and motivated labor forcein the world and the lowest paidproportionate to education."

Professor Uzawa was asked whetherhe saw any prospect of sizablefuture unemployment in Japan. Hereplied that the unemployment ratecontinues steady at about 1.2 percent "no matter what we de andadded that the Japanese view ofunemployment was somewhat morerelaxed than that in the UnitedStates. He then challenged Dr.Frankel's view that many Japanesewere underpaid, drawing attentionto "all sorts of fringe benefitsthat are not necessarily expresslystated in the employment contract.If we take these things intoaccount," he declared, "the pay ofthe average Japanese worker maybe comparable to that of theAmerican worker."

17

The discussion turned toward thedifficulty and danger of predictions,with Professor Heilbroner declaringthat economists had a particularlybad record in this respect. AfterWorld War II, he said, economistsfeared and predicted recession andnone foresaw the rise of inflationas an endemic problem. None"foresaw the emergence of povertyas a central, enduring characteristicof the affluent society," and noone anticipated the problem ofchronic deficit in the nationalbudget even as the gross national

' .product continued to grow.Professor Frankel, stressing lessonsto be learned from history, observedthat "there is not too much inmodern sociology that goes beyondwhat was said by Plato and inthe Bibleif they are read withintelligence." He went on: "We dohave considerable aids to talkingabout the future that come fromthe human past, particularlyintelligent reflection on the past.Conditions are not going to changeall that much. Responses will bemore or less within a predictablerange."

A question was asked as to whatwould develop if a post-industrialsociety as such did not emerge,as Professor Huntington hadsuggested might occur.Dr. Huntington, in reply, saidthat there was considerabledifference of view about this wholequestion. Daniel Bell, he recalled,said that the post-industrial societyhad arrived between 1945 and 1950:thus, Dr. Huntington said, "wehave already survived 20 years ofpost-industrial society and it doesn'tlook too different from industrialsociety." Social scientists, he said,have a tendency "to overemphasize

18

the difference between the presentand what is going to happen inthe future." There is a tendencyto assume that dramatic changeswill occur when actually there maysimply be a mixture of industrialand post-industrial society. In somecases in developing countries, thevery process of modernization mayreinforce some elements oftradition; thus religion andcommunal loyalties may become,stronger rather than weaker.

SUMMARY

A question prompted ProfessorMorley to offer a general summaryof the discussions, in which hepointed to similarities and todifferences in the two societies."While the industrial labor force inthe United States is leveling off,the labor force in Japan continuesto growwe are not the same inallocation of labor resources. Wealso differ in the balance of polit-ical forces. The Japanese bureau-cracy is one of the most developedand efficient in the world; it oc-cupies a position quite unlike thatof the American bureaucracy,which is rarely given kudos inpublic. This suggests to many thatthe possibility of change may behigher in Japan, if the bureau-cracy is more motivated to change,than in the United States, wheresocial forces are very scattered."

"Traditional values, to the extentthat they persist in each society,are very different," Dr. Morleycontinued. The individualism of thepioneer farmer who settledWisconsin "is a very differentthing from the communal values ofthe Japanese villager, who may stillwish to submerge his individuality."

Another difference in the situationthat had been brought out in thediscussions, he explained, is thatAmerican society may be "moreisolatablethat is, less dependenton the international community forsurvival of its internal mechanismsthan is Japan, whose naturalresources are so minimal that theinternational environment isliterally crucial to it."

Dr. Morley said the scholars'discussions over the last weekhad seemed to point to greaterJapanese confidence in thepossibility of resolving pressingproblems. "It seems possible,"he said, "that in Japan the achieve-ments over the last 10 years havebeen so impressive that there'sa confidence that maybe they candevelop social measures to copewith the problemsthat maybethey can reallocate necessaryresources to the public sector."As regards the United States,"there seemed to be a little bitof feeling among those whodiscussed these matters thatmaybe we can't do this. We'vehad such a discouraging experiencefor the last 10 years that perhapsthere's greater skepticism hereabout social progress," he declared.

Recalling Dr. Huntington's earliercomment that the group present atWingspread constituted a goodcross-section of the sector ofsociety that would be mostinfluential in the future, ProfessorMorley brought the meeting to aclose by observing that "those ofus up here on the platform havehad a very rich opportunity toface the new ruling class."

19

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