automotive 4.0 outlook and implications · 2016. 4. 4. · 20160216_rolandberger_sfeldmann_tran...
TRANSCRIPT
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TRAN hearing on "Towards a European Road Safety Area"
Brussels, February 16th 2016
Automotive 4.0 – Outlook and Implications
Sebastian Feldmann
Partner - Roland Berger GmbH
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Contents Page
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation.
It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from .
© Roland Berger
A. Roland Berger at a glance 3
B. Driving assistance development and regulatory key aspects to secure European competitiveness for Automotive 4.0 10
C. Short CV: Sebastian Feldmann 13
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A. Roland Berger at a glance
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Roland Berger is a truly global and fully independent firm, founded upon a European heritage and solely owned by our partners
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Our profile
Source: Roland Berger
Founded in 1967 in Germany by Roland Berger
50 offices in 36 countries, with around 2,400 employees
Nearly 220 RB Partners currently serving
~1,000 international clients
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For each individual project, we set up teams whose members have various competencies and develop customized solutions
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Our competence matrix
Source: Roland Berger
Function
Ind
ust
ry
Con
s. G
oods
&
Ret
ail
Eng
. Pro
duct
s &
Hig
h Te
ch
Ene
rgy
&
Util
ities
Digital
Operations
Private Equity
Restructuring & Corporate Finance
Strategy
Aut
omot
ive
Che
mic
als
&
Pha
rma
Fin
anci
al
Ser
vice
s
TM
T
Tra
nspo
rtat
ion
Civ
il E
cono
mic
s &
Infr
astr
uctu
re
Leadership & Transformation
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THINK ACT, our international client magazine, is an award-winning read for global top decision makers to form an independent opinion
Source: Roland Berger
Excellence at Roland Berger – Thought leadership
> Demonstrate thought leadership to 20,000 top decision makers worldwide
> Have won several "Best of Corporate Publishing" awards, as well as international design awards in the U.S.
We …
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Recent studies & articles in 2015 (selection)
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The Roland Berger Automotive Competence Center is a THOUGHT LEADER and regularly delivers landmark studies
ACC Insights
> The Automotive Competence Center's client magazine
> Going out to top-match decision makers in the automotive business globally
> Three to four publications per year
> Circulation of around 3,500 copies per issue
Publications and studies
Global Automotive Supplier Study 2014 > Assessment of current situation, success factors and
future challenges > Recommendations of short and long term actions for
automotive suppliers
Automated vehicles Index Q2 2015 > Presentation of competitive positions of world´s
leading automotive nations > Illustration of necessary against prevailing legal
framework
Automotive 4.0 - A disruption and new reality in the US? > Identification of major, potentially disruptive trends > Illustration and quantification of various scenarios and
their impacts on the automotive industry
Source: Roland Berger
On the road toward the autonomous truck > Functional demands on OEM´s and Suppliers in the
development of truck automation until 2025 > Identification of major technical and legal challenges
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Spotlight: we regularly contribute publications on automated vehicles, also to support European car industry competitiveness
Roland Berger studies: recent examples for automated car and truck / Automotive 4.0
Source: Roland Berger
Autonomous driving: Disruptive innovation that promises to change the automotive industry as we know it – it’s time for every player to think:act!
On the road toward the autonomous truck: Opportunities for OEMs and suppliers
“Automated Vehicles” index published by fka and Roland Berger: Analysis of the competitive position of the relevant automotive nations (Germany, US, China, Sweden, the UK, South Korea, France, Italy and Japan)
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Our independent and deep expertise is sought after by INTERNATIONAL PRESS AND MEDIA
Source: Press, Roland Berger
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B. Driving assistance development and regulatory key aspects to secure European competitiveness for Automotive 4.0
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Market- and customer- as well as megatrends promote a rapid change within the automotive and mobility industry
Opportunities in the Mobility Sector
Market- and customer-Trends
Megatrends
Soaring individuality
Altered consumer behavior
Diminishing boundaries
Increasing demand for convenience
Enhanced interconnectedness
Demographic change
Urbanization and growth of megacities
Technological progress
Scarcity of resources and climate change
Globalization and Glo-Calization
> Niche segments (also vehicles!) arise
> People strive for autonomy and their "personal journey"
> People use and share instead of own (sharing economy)
> Increasing trust in "automation" capabilities
> New players do enter established markets
> Markets increasingly tend to cooperate
> HW and SW merge
> People face more time pressure, while having higher comfort expectations
> People, vehicles and infrastructure are in-creasingly connected (e.g. by real-time data, smartphones)
Influences on penetration speed of automated driving
Source: Roland Berger
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Our recent study displays that automated mobility already becomes a huge market; current mobility service solutions are mostly replaced
Value-add by elements of the US mobility market1) [USD bn]
Source: Press articles, annual reports, US Census, NHTSA, FHWA, IHS, AAA, NADA, Automotive Fleet, SBD, Roland Berger
1) Considers only value-add items; does not include fuel, depreciation, insurance, parking etc.; 2) Maintenance is not included; 3) Based on 2013 figures of Zipcar, Uber, Car2Go, DriveNow, Lyft, Sidecar, etc.
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1414 -1
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Mobility-on-demand service Car/ride sharing3) Rental car Taxi and limo2)
Today Auto 4.0
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German automotive OEMs have the most extensive range of partially automated driving functions across all segments
Roland Berger AV Index – Activities of national OEMs
Country OEM activities
High
Low
Medium
Ava
ilab
ility
of
fun
ctio
ns
(mas
s pr
oduc
tion)
State of development (mass production and prototypes)
High Low Medium
High availability of partially automated driving functions in different model series produced by German premium and mass-market OEMs
Tesla is currently the leading US vendor to offer partially automated systems in mass-produced vehicles (Tesla Model S)
Japanese OEMs currently sell partially automated driver assistance systems mainly via their premium brands (Lexus, Infiniti)
Volvo has a strong focus on safety systems and also offers partially automated driving functions in selected vehicles
Source: fka; Roland Berger
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Launch horizon for automated driving functions
Source: Press research; conference papers; Bosch; Roland Berger
Market indicates that first level 3 systems should be available by 2017 – Level 4 is expected to be launched starting from 2020
~2013 ~2020 ~2016 ~2014 ~2015 ~2017 ~2018 ~2019 ~2025 >2025
Parking assistant (steering only) Valet parking
"Parking with app"
Emergency braking assistant and pedestrian detection
Emergency steering assistant
Emergency cut-off
Lane change assistant City pilot
Lane departure warning
Intersection assistant
Highway pilot
Traffic jam pilot Fully automated driving
Parking
Safety
Driving
Construction area assist
Traffic jam assist
Level 3 Level 4
Exit2Exit
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Key blockers are e.g. limiting ECE regulations – need to define world-wide technical standards securing European competiveness
Key legislative levers for enabling Auto 4.0 and increasing road safety
Source: Roland Berger
Vehicle registration > Current registration processes favors the US position: While in Germany, the authorization of
automated vehicles is not explicitly prohibited (as testing vehicles). In Nevada and other states of the USA, public road operation of these vehicles is explicitly allowed.
ECE regulation > In the US, ECE regulations were replaced by own regulations (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Stan-
dard): for instance ECE R79 (automatic steering function) is seen as main show stopper on EU level
Security & accident avoidance > Although no. of car accidents and also their fatalness will decrease with further technology, it is
important to support a safe and reliable introduction of in-car data loggers / black boxes as proposed by NHTSA as a mandatory requirement in Europe
Data privacy protection > In order to support personal data autonomy, required in-car data logger should store data according
to agreed European and world-wide data collection standards
Liability > Administration, associations and insurances should define homogeneous European standards
together with the industry to build confidence of consumers but also protect manufacturers
Action fields Impact on road safety
Very important Less important
Low High
Low High
Low High
Low High
Low High
EU also needs to closely watch other regulatory developments, like e.g. C-t-C / C-t-I communication in the US
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C. Short CV – Sebastian Feldmann
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Education
1997-2001 WHU, Otto Beisheim School of Management (Germany) – diploma in economics and business admini-stration (Diplom-Kaufmann, MBA)
1999-2000 J. L. Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto (Canada) - MBA
1999 Kobe University, Faculty of Business Administration (Japan) - MBA
Position: Partner
Languages
> German (mother tongue)
> English (fluent)
> Portuguese (advanced)
> French (basic)
> Japanese (basic)
Key Projects
> Several business strategy / definition / implementation projects for leading players in the Automotive and Industrial Machinery industries
> Strategy development for the Used Truck business unit of a German OEM, implementation of global business and profitability steering mechanisms
> Global supply chain and operations transformation program for a leading mining equipment OEM
> Product development enhancement, Innovation management, and standardization & cost-down program for a global leading vehicle OEM
> Digitization and business model transformation for a leading automotive component supplier
Methodological skills
> Innovation & Business Model transformation
> Service Excellence and Automotive 4.0
> Operations and Supply Chain Excellence and transformation
Nationality: German
Industry skills
> Automotive (especially Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle OEMs)
> Engineered Products and High-Tech
> Rail (Vehicle OEMs)
> Aerospace
Office: Munich
Professional Experience
since 2015 Roland Berger GmbH
2010-2014 PwC Management Consulting (until 2012: PRTM Management Consultants GmbH)
2005-2010 Ricardo Strategic Consulting GmbH
2001-2005 A.T. Kearney GmbH
Source: Roland Berger
Sebastian Feldmann
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Technically spoken: for nearly every problem there is a solution, now mainly validation/testing and legal frameworks are the limitation
Source: Roland Berger
Contact
Sebastian Feldmann Partner
Roland Berger GmbH Sederanger 1 | 80538 München | Germany
Phone +49 89 9230 8317 | Mobile +49 160 744 8317
mailto:[email protected]