automotive messenger - grant thornton uk llp · 2015-11-20 · new vehicle market stabilises –...

Automotive MessengerOctober/November 2015

New vehicle market stabilises – registrations fall in October compared to 2014Following over three and a half years of continuous monthly growth, the October 2015 new vehicle registration data reveals the first monthly decline at 1.14% down on the same month in 2014. Alarm bells should not automatically be ringing as the word “stabilise” (used by the SMMT in their press release 5 November) has been carefully chosen and was used by them around the turn of the calendar year to describe 2015 – it was always anticipated.

However, with such a run in 2015 taking everyone by surprise, the adverse change will undoubtedly start to influence tactics around the end of 2015 with registered units, market share by brand and support monies made available all at stake. As this is our last publication until the New Year, we flag the need for all involved to plan for the registration tactics at the earliest opportunity and provide clarity not only on profit opportunity in the context of annual registration targets but also cash requirement for funding vehicles and payment of support monies.

It concerns us that tactical campaigns can often overlook cashflow and we generally see this biting more at the end of the calendar year than even the peak months where more leeway can often be available as an expected event. The fear of missing targets can lead to behaviours in direct conflict with available cashflow and it is this anomaly that should be prioritised and addressed in a structured manner.

Diesel issues remain a global problemAt the time of going to press with this edition of Automotive Messenger, two additional issues emerged from the VW camp around the diesel emission saga. We have covered off inside the story as reported in October, but now the brand have had to reveal that CO2 levels and fuel consumption may both be understated on up to 800,000 vehicles across Europe – Audi, Seat, Skoda and VW models are all impacted.

This has serious financial consequences for a number of parties and caused another fall in the VW Group share value – we understand in

one day this amounted to €3bn, quite a sum! But more worryingly with finance in mind is the tax structure in markets where CO2 levels play a huge role in the end cost. Mention extra cost and everyone takes notice.

Financials aside, we still see the environmental issue as the primary concern and this remains a global problem. Yet again politics and automotive will be mixing as they did post the 2008 global economic crash – we believe what is needed is a full and frank, independent, appraisal of not only VW product but diesel engines as the favoured power train for passenger cars in certain parts of the world. It will be very positive to know that the current revelation is just that and no more than a blip in existing strategies.

We have taken the opportunity to update this edition of Automotive Messenger with three “hot-off-the-press” news items which we believe warrant adding to our publication for their relevance to current issues in the industry.

Are we at the defining moment for the automotive industry?

Welcome to the October/November edition of Automotive Messenger and what a time to be involved in the sector! Unless anyone has been holidaying on Mars, the revelation to top a number over the last decade has been the diesel emission story that has rocked Volkswagen Group and the industry at large. This issue warrants its own entire magazine but to try and bring perspective, we have devoted a few column inches on the facts as we understand them and the challenges that lay ahead. Reactions have at best been mixed!

Whilst the headline writers have had a field day with the VW issue, the UK has slipped out remarkable registration growth for Q3 which not only defies logic but makes a mockery of our last edition where we headlined ‘How far can reality stretch?’. This piece of elastic knows no bounds and still pulls everyone along in its wake at a relentless pace. Most are benefitting but some are now feeling the choppy waves crashing around them – we

cover this off later in this edition. The cumulative growth in UK

registrations for the year to date now stands at 7.08% which is on top of 9.1% for the calendar year 2014 and 10.8% for 2013. If the 2015 full year registrations grow at the 7.08% rate, then the last twenty four months will have seen over 375,000 additional vehicles registered, an enormous growth. Explains all the traffic jams we encounter daily!

In addition to the UK, mainland Europe is seeing some rebound and is now posting growth month by month – there is still so much more to be achieved in Europe to bring registrations back to previous levels and with the BRIC countries perhaps struggling to counter balance, volume production targets for 2016 must still be looking very tasty indeed. The US is having a ball with the magical 18 million (seasonally, annually adjusted) almost being attained reflecting the economic security being afforded currently by the advanced economies –

how the pendulum swings!We have slightly amended the format

of this edition to focus more on news stories rather than commentary on the hard data which we explain later. Finally we welcome a new team member to Automotive – Owen Edwards – who until recently was a part of the senior team at Inchcape Plc and comes from an Analysts background working in the City. Owen is already taking responsibility for some content in Automotive Messenger and we hope you enjoy his contributions.

03 There is mad and then there is a Hatter!

05 Environmental issues come to the fore too early

07 An upbeat reporting season for Motor Retail Plc

09 Who will “own” the customer?

11 A time for M&A to gain more momentum?

13 News snippets

17 Registration data

Contents

Automotive Messenger

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Tarun MistryT +44 (0)20 7728 2404M +44 (0)7966 432 299E [email protected]

Neil BarrellT +44 (0)20 7865 2700M +44 (0)7976 550 312E [email protected]

Bill Parfitt CBET +44 (0)20 7385 5100M +44 (0)7528 870 341E [email protected]

Paul BurrowsT +44 (0)1908 359 554M +44 (0)7850 538 309E [email protected]

There is mad and then there is a Hatter!

The nine months to September 2015 have shown no sign of waning growth – can Lewis Carroll make any sense of it all?


Automotive Messenger October/November 2015 3

It takes a number of years for people to appreciate the Alice in Wonderland stories of the downright weird and mad, but perhaps we can re-write the books in the context of the UK motor distribution market as it currently operates. Over 2 million vehicles have been registered in the nine months which suggests all is well, but the reality is not quite as comfortable. Registrations represent the point at which a vehicle becomes a legal entity – it is on the road, or is it?

Space is too limited in this edition to repeat the comments we made in the last Messenger, but the situation is getting even further away from reality. If we were to plot the daily registrations during September, or the end of any month/quarter, there would be more clarity on the data and what it really means. This is not a steady flow of private and fleet customers passing through vehicle showrooms with an amount of cash to spend – it is more about ensuring vehicles produced find a home in one form or another and the retailers meet ever-increasing targets which show no sign of abating year on year.

You could use the analogy that the ship is sailing but the seas have gone from calm to very choppy and the job of keeping everything afloat is more perilous as the seas get more choppy – not a pleasant experience at all. However, if the ship has the correct coordinates, it can find some shelter and make

progress. For coordinates read ‘Targets and Campaign monies’ and with the Volkswagen issue blowing around and 2016 on the horizon, is it little wonder that smaller ships seek bigger ships to transfer to – and for this read smaller retailers selling up to bigger ones, an area of buoyant (excuse the pun) activity levels and more to come.

(Our third hot-off-the-press update is the acquisition of SG Smith by Marshalls - more premium added to the portfolio and war chest spent).

Top down pressure is now a reality and factories are gearing up for growth around the globe with each country needing to take its share of the extra vehicles. Those in the know ‘know’ it can be achieved in a variety of ways, but not by equating proper third party sales to customers to the registration data. The value of the published SMMT statistics has to be lessening as the top down forces hold sway and eventually the used market will reach saturation and then..? What will be the average size of a motor retailer – 50+, 100+ sites and multi-brand with significant cash reserves located in densely populated areas? Quite feasible but not before the rough seas take their victims.

So of the tables themselves, what do we see:• nine month registrations at 2,096,886

showing a 7.08% increase over 2014• Ford still number 1 for volume

(268,328 vehicles) and market share

12.8% (albeit down on 2014 by over 0.6%)

• Volkswagen achieved nine months growth of 8.17% but pre the emissions issue

• Mercedes has become the hot premium brand with 17.6% growth up to 116,509 vehicles

• Mazda accelerated by 20.9% to 37,923 vehicles

• MINI and Nissan have continued their double-digit growth rates, MINI at 29% growth

• Renault has grown by 16.7% to 59,221 vehicles but still short of levels pre model cuts

• Quietly Ssangyong has grown by 120% to 2,681 vehicles which helps the economics!

The message is clearly know your brand and have plenty of cash – profitability is not around registrations alone, it is margin driven and that can relate directly to the manufacturer support to achieve volume targets. Get it right and profits roll in, get it wrong and suffer the consequences.

The message is clearly know your brand and have

plenty of cash – profitability is not around registrations alone, it is margin driven and that can

relate directly to the manufacturer support to achieve volume targets.

Get it right and profits roll in, get it wrong and suffer the

consequences.


4

Commercial vehicles (CV) shineWe reported in our last edition of Messenger that CV and Truck were both going great guns – and the nine month point in the year sees no change in that. Whilst the cumulative growth has come down from the half year levels, CV still show a nine month growth of 17.4% over 2014 and Truck 37.3%. For all the reasons previously explained, this is a real pointer to the state of the economy and bodes well for the big confidence factor.

In the detail itself, Ford retains its number 1 slot for volume in under 3.5 tonnes at 75,601 vehicles, an increase of 21% over 2014. Vauxhall shows the largest gain at 38% but Volkswagen retains overall number two slot at virtually 35,000 vehicles registered. In line with the performance of its passenger car growth, Renault has lifted registrations over 2014 by 30.6% which alongside its erstwhile partner, Vauxhall, makes for pleasant reading.

Trucks continue to do well and the top four manufacturers have achieved growth in excess of 30%, in the case of Scania 67%. Whether this purple patch continues will depend a lot on haulage which already seems to be at saturation point on our roads – or are we being too negative here, newer more fuel efficient and emission-friendly trucks all positive factors that have to be good news.

Paul BurrowsDirector Downstream Automotive

Grant Thornton UK LLP



Environmental issues come to the fore too early

Throughout the last forty years in the life of the automotive industry, there has been an uneasy tension between manufacturers, environmentalists and governments over emissions and just how, or not, polluting and harmful vehicle emissions really are, and the long term issues to health and the planet.

The Volkswagen fix for emissions tests has brought the whole environmental subject to a much quicker final battle than any side expected – it simply cannot now be ignored. Set aside the US Regulator saying it had been taken aback and that VW Group ‘went above and beyond in its efforts to game the system and deceive consumers’ and set aside the initial 37% decline over two days of the Volkswagen share price. Much more is at stake.

On a very simple front, VW has created a software cheat to enable a diesel engine to pass a stringent emissions test, recognising the rolling road style environment and enabling the engine to pass when at its optimum output it should have failed. That means every VW effected has potentially been emitting ‘harmful’ gases in excess of agreed tolerances and that is an environmental issue of major proportions. But the situation is even more complex.

According to technical boffins, the software was a cost effective way to turn off diesel emissions controls except during official tests and in this way retain fuel efficiency under normal driving conditions. The smart opinion is that VW engineers were trying to find a happy medium for their customers but

this is now going to backfire with some force, especially in the litigious US.

We are aware that ambulance-chasing lawyers are already corralling customers for the inevitable plethora of class actions. In the UK it has not taken long for websites to appear with the same objective. We have already been discussing with one pre-eminent law firm what claims might cover – how about contract law for a starter when consumers get their promised ‘fix’ and potentially find performance reduced (although there are reports of a brand commitment to retain set levels so this may not happen at all).

But back to the environment – the gas at issue is nitrogen oxide and it is harmful. Believe it if you will, but certain systems in use have a separate tank of a chemical called ‘urea’ which breaks down NOx, the process called ‘selective catalytic reduction’ – but not the VW diesel engine apparently, it uses a ‘lean NOx trap’ which is cheaper to install but does have the negative performance consequences when in normal driving conditions.

The UK government has a structure in play to tax emissions – but that relates to CO2 and not NOx, confusing and now likely to come under intense scrutiny. Diesel fuel efficiency can,

commentators note, help reduce greenhouse gases but what else do diesels emit? All-in-all, the issue can be fixed by VW but it is going to cost a fortune and residual values of vehicles may be impacted. Environmentalists will be lobbying government to resolve the bigger issue – our planet!

This is where we started – one commentator described the VW scandal as worse than Enron which was obviously ‘fatal’. All parties have convinced themselves that the diesel engine is the solution to follow and that may now be completely wrong with huge implications. The same commentator described ‘clean diesel’ as having the same meaning as ‘clean coal’ – not a happy thought unless this situation gets resolved with absolute actions and clarity for the consumers across the world who will be wanting to do their bit for the environment.

On the positive side, a once and for all resolution will be very helpful for all concerned.

“The team at Grant Thornton did a fantastic job for us driving the best value

on the successful sale of our dealership. From the start they understood our values,

took account of our goals and objectives and dealt professionally and diligently with all

aspects of the sales process. Their experience and knowledge of the automotive sector was hugely significant for us in selecting

them as a partner, and their existing relationships with all the major

players in the market made them a clear favourite.”

“We have been delighted with their

(Grant Thornton’s) work and I would thoroughly

recommend them to anyone looking for high quality

advisory services.”

Grant Thornton recently advised on the sale of a premium motor retail business under the JLR banner, guiding our client through the completion process, liaising closely with the acquirer and the brand at all stages to create the right environment to maximise value.

Our direct knowledge and relationship with all parties involved proved highly advantageous to the process and ultimately our client. We were able to agree a range of potential buyers with the brand, create competitive tension and lead negotiations to ultimate conclusion. We also provided tax advisory services.

Our client was very happy to provide the following feedback: a very positive endorsement indeed.

6


Case Study – Another successful disposal led by Grant Thornton

An upbeat reporting season for Motor Retail Plc

A robust contribution from new and used vehicles fuelled a strong reporting season for the UK’s listed motor retailers. The new vehicle market grew at an annualised rate of 7.1% (September year-to-date 2015), underpinned by attractive PCP packages, strengthening economic growth, improving consumer confidence, and persistently low interest rates.

All reporting, downstream businesses reported a strong performance during the period. Inchcape was the first to report its results, followed by Pendragon, Lookers, Marshall and Vertu.

Inchcape UKPerformance in Inchcape’s UK business was robust, with an 11.2% increase in revenues and a 2.9% rise in trading profits. Trading margins declined in both the retail and the distribution businesses, due in part to strong growth in new vehicle sales impacting mix, weaker used vehicle margins, and IT amortisation charges.

Pendragon PlcFirst-half like for like revenue at Pendragon rose at an annualised rate of 10.7%, while gross profit increased by 5.7% and operating profits rose by 17%. Both Stratstone and Evans Halshaw performed well with improved revenue growth in most departments. However, the group’s new and used car gross margins showed signs of a more challenging environment.

Lookers PlcLookers reported a strong trading performance for the first half of the year, attributable to both the motors and parts businesses. Revenue increased to £1.75 billion and profit before tax rose at an annualised rate of 6% to reach £39.9m. The independent parts operation continued to grow, underpinned by investment in the core business of FPS.




8

Marshall Motors PlcMarshall Motors’ first set of results as a listed company reflected a strong contribution from its retail and leasing divisions. Revenues increased by 16% during the first half of 2015 and profit before tax grew by 9.8% to £10.5m. The retail division performed well, aided by acquisitions and by organic growth where PCP was a major contributor.

Vertu Motors PlcThe sector’s reporting season was wound up by Vertu Motors Plc, which reported a 14% year-on-year increase in group revenue, and a like-for-like increase of 5.2%. A solid set of first-half results was generated by recent acquisitions and growth in high margin aftersales activity, improvements in the underlying businesses, and the disposal of underperforming assets.

Table comparison The following tables provides an ‘interactive’ comparison of like-for-like revenue growth rates and also absolute gross profit margins for each division of four of the quoted Plc companies. These summary tables are intended to enable a motor retail business to calculate a direct comparison:

Share price analysisAs can be seen from the following share chart, our new Motor Retail Index (Average weighted share price performance, Inchcape Plc., Pendragon Plc., Lookers Plc., Vertu Motors Plc. and Cambria Motors Plc – Marshall Motors Plc currently excluded due to its short period of trading as a Plc) has outperformed the FTSE All Share Index. The sector’s performance can be attributed to continued good news from the monthly SMMT car registration data, a solid set of first-half results from all the motor retailers, and ongoing acquisition activity in the sector.

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85Jan

2015Feb

2015Mar

2015Apr

2015May

2015Jun

2015Jul

2015Aug

2015Sep

2015Oct

2015

Pric

e in

dex

(1 J

an 2

015

= 1

00)

Motor Retail Index

FTSE All Share (Rebased)

Motor Retail Index vs FTSE All Share (rebased)

Source: Thompson DataStream

Plc Like-for-Like (“L4L”) Comparable Table

L4L Growth Pendragon Plc Lookers Plc Marshall Motors Plc Vertu Motors Plc AN Other Limited

Group Revenue 10.70% 8.90% 6.70% 5.20%

Volumes

New Vehicle Sales (Units) N/A 4.00% 5.90% 2.70%

Used Vehicle Sales (Units) N/A 8.00% 2.70% 4.20%

Aftersales (Revenue) 6.70% 5.00% 1.70% 6.20%

Plc Gross Profit Margin (%) Comparable Table

Gross Margins (%) Pendragon Plc Lookers Plc Marshall Motors Plc Vertu Motors Plc AN Other Limited

New Vehicles Sales 7.50% N/A 7.30% 7.30%*

Used Vehicle Sales 8.30% 7.00% 7.10% 9.80%

Aftersales 64.80% 43.30% 44.80% 44.40%

*New vehicle Retail and Motability onlySource: Companies. N/A data has not been provided in the published H1 unaudited accounts


Automotive Messenger October/November 2015 2015 9

Who will “own” the customer?

In September, Grant Thornton Automotive and the University of Buckingham utilised their fledgling business-meets-academia relationship and invited MDs and senior directors from a number of captive and independent finance companies, contract hire/leasing companies and motor dealerships to the first in a series of innovative debate forums.

The title of this first forum was ‘Shaping the change and profit opportunity in downstream automotive – Who will own the customer?’, a title that was deliberately framed to be forward-looking and controversial and to get the attendees engaged in debating this potentially key issue vital to the future winners in the industry.

Clearly a forum of this magnitude with guests taking time out of their busy schedules warrants complete anonymity and confidentiality around individual views. We respect that in this summary, but nonetheless, we can pick out the highlights in their broadest sense and report them within this edition.

The fundamental premise was that ‘ownership of the customer’ is not only a desirable objective but an absolute necessity because it gives the ‘owner’ the right to re-canvas the client for future business and thus enjoy profit opportunities. The overall conclusion was the customer cannot be owned, their business has to be ‘earned’.

The event was structured as a formal debate, with speakers arguing in turn that motor manufacturers, motor dealers, motor finance companies and fleet leasing companies will own the customer. Each speaker had six minutes to put over their respective case.

Bill Parfitt CBE opened the debate, arguing that motor manufacturers will

own the customer. Bill is the former CEO of Vauxhall UK and Vice President GM Europe, and has been a consultant with Grant Thornton Automotive for the past two years.

Bill argued that customer data is the new global currency and that whoever owns the data owns the customer. He sees manufacturers being positioned to take advantage of online systems and getting better connected directly with the customer. The ‘connected car’ is a real data feast and Bill noted new systems which will allow direct in-vehicle contact with the customer with the vehicle transmitting mileage, engine oil life, brake pad wear, tyre pressure etc. data to manufacturers in real time.

The second speaker was Peter Landers, Head of Grant Thornton’s Vehicle & Consumer Finance Advisory practice. Peter took the position that the finance companies will own the customer through the primary medium of Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) products which have become a key driver of new vehicle sales.

PCP product gives the finance company plenty of reasons to contact the customer, and, in addition, finance companies already have lots of data at their disposal that they can marshal when recanvassing the client for more business; data such as the customer’s credit profile, how much they can afford and the likelihood the customer will change car.

Powerful data as argued by Bill.I was the third speaker, arguing that

leasing and fleet management companies will own the customer. Customers want services and that’s what these companies deliver. They already do a great deal for their clients and have plenty of opportunities to interact with them. In many cases they are an essential part of their clients’ businesses. The quality and frequency of contact and the vast amounts of essential client data they hold, gives them pre-eminent status in the eyes of the client and a perfect position from which to sell more services.

The fourth and final speaker was Owen Edwards, who recently joined the Grant Thornton downstream automotive team. Owen has worked in the automotive sector for many years and until recently was responsible for business development at Inchcape Plc involved in international distribution and retail affairs. He argued that motor retailers will own the customer.

the customer

cannot be owned, their business has

to be ‘earned’


10

He described the changes occurring in the market and the risks these involve for retailers: increased competition, changing customer habits (buying online, hunting for value), regulatory issues, manufacturers and finance companies having more interaction with the customer, consolidation etc.

He posed the question to the invited audience “Will retailers be redundant in the future?” but then explained why they will still be an essential part of the downstream delivery of services. Customers want to touch cars, have test drives and obtain expert advice. Most customers continue to value the personal aspect of the sales process, which generates better brand representation, customer retention, service offering and value for money. “Retailers actually talk to the customer and know their true needs. They just have to adapt their approach”.

That premise of adapting to change was picked up by the audience and over a lively debate of contrasting views and opinions, it stood firm as a principle. Whatever the future throws at the industry, there was a strong and unanimous view that service providers from all sides of the delivery can and will adapt to the changing needs and create a place for themselves as the industry enters its next phase of evolution.

The CEO of one captive finance company explained how his group was altering the customer’s experience in the dealership, making it far more digital and moving from traditional salespeople to having ‘Apple-like’ sales consultants who were being recruited for their emotional intelligence rather than their

selling ability. “We can teach product knowledge and skills, we cannot teach emotional intelligence”.

In closing the debate, Dr Sarah Evans-Howe of the University of Buckingham’s business school gave a brief presentation on changing customer behaviour in other sectors of the economy. She pointed out that businesses nowadays aren’t looking for satisfied customers, they want raving fans who will promote the business’s interests to their friends and in social media. This latter revolution needs completely different attitudes and perspectives.

Businesses can no longer control their own message. Once they make a move, a million people will pick up that message, interpret it as they wish and go onto social media to give their opinions (‘word of mouse’). And if they have bad service they can easily get even. (Look at ‘United Breaks Guitars’ on YouTube). Customers are savvy – they know where else they can get your product and for how much.

Tarun Mistry, Head of Downstream Automotive at Grant Thornton, closed the event by summarising the debate and confirming that the second Forum in Spring 2016 will build on the topics covered and take them a stage further, clearly identifying that it was highly appropriate for key players in the downstream industry to come together and have their say for the good of the industry. The real focus will be on identifying where change will come, how to influence it and where the opportunities lie.

Colin TourickGrant Thornton Professor of Automotive ManagementUniversity of Buckingham


Automotive Messenger October/November 2015 2015 11

A time for M&A to gain even more momentum?

Grant Thornton’s Owen Edwards, explores the deal market and what changes we might see in 2016.

The UK all sectors M&A market is clearly in a growth phase, boosted by an improving economic backdrop and pent-up investment demand from private equity and venture capital companies. Total M&A activity increased from 2,767 deals in 2010 to 3,431 in 2014 – a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.5%.

The UK downstream automotive market has followed a similar trend with a CAGR of 13.2% over the same period, although this strong growth rate is flattered by the relatively low starting position of the data (Source Zephyr). The line chart illustrates growth since 2008 in the wholesale and retail, trade repair motor vehicles, and motorcycle markets (Source Zephyr).

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

All UK Acquistions 2010/2014

No

of D

eals

Source: Zephyr

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wholesale and Retail Trade and Repair Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles Acquisitions

No

of D

eals

Source: Zephyr

This is the first in a series of articles that Grant Thornton is writing on the Downstream M&A market. In the next issue of Automotive Messenger, we will be reviewing how value drivers are created and what makes a difference? If you would like a brief summary of the next instalment before Automotive Messenger is published, or would like to know more about the automotive services that Grant Thornton provides, please get in touch with Owen Edwards at [email protected] or by calling 07811 991128.


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The automotive retail market remains very fragmented. The largest player in the market has only 7.4% (source AM-online, Revenue Top 200) of the total market and the top-ten operators account for approximately 41.1% (source AM-online Revenue Top 200). At Grant Thornton, we believe that acquisition activity will continue during the next 12 months, underpinned by several factors: • Market share creep – the larger

operators in the market are slowly becoming more dominant. Many of the Plcs are achieving growth in a mature market via acquisition.

• Rising interest from overseas investors – interest from overseas investors in UK automotive retail assets has intensified, born out by Group 1 and Super Group recent acquisition activity.

• Private equity and venture capital – the investment companies are on the hunt. They are looking for value and strong cash flow, and the scope to combine businesses to turn them around, gain economies of scale and then sell but over a much more flexible timescale than the now infamous ‘three years and go’ cycle. The last six months has seen a flurry of activity in the US, with veteran investor Warren Buffet’s company Berkshire Hathaway looking to invest $1 billion in the automotive retail space. We believe that more private equity and venture capital companies will become interested in this retail space, attracted by strong cash flows and the potential for large property asset plays.

• Exit strategies – manufacturers are restructuring their networks and some smaller operators are taking the opportunity to exit while the market is buoyant, either through the owner’s retirement or the desire to crystallise a capital gain as operating and investment terms become ever-more tough and push boundaries where businesses may feel uncomfortable in going.

Grant Thornton has a strong history of successful transactions in the motor retailing market. Over the last 12 months, we have seen a significant increase in interest from potential buyers and sellers of motor retailing assets. This is all very good news for Sellers but one of the problems being faced is the very reason owners are keen to sell – the Stock Market. We have six high profile Stock Market members who are hungry for deals and are keen to find the best opportunities, which is exactly what they are doing. But this does not always help because there are other deals that they don’t do and these are much more difficult to rekindle.What we have seen missing are the private company deals buying other private companies and building slowly to expand their portfolios. But perhaps that is now changing and the momentum set – last year Endevaour run by John Caney (and FD Andy Shackleton formerly of Grant Thornton) acquired Regent Automotive, seven Volvo dealerships in London. Then this year we have seen Perrys acquire GK Group and Stoneacre acquire Autoworld in

relatively quick succession. A lot of the Plc activity has been focussed within the premium space especially JLR where there are structural changes aplenty.

The M&A market continues to grow across all sectors and industries. Grant Thornton’s specialist knowledge, experience and connections in the downstream areas of the automotive industry offers our clients an invaluable advantage, whether they are seeking the best price for their business or have other objectives to fulfil when buying or selling businesses.



Volkswagen issues could promote alternative fuelsWe have covered the Volkswagen issue in some detail within this edition but whilst all the focus has been around that brand’s current (and future?) troubles, there have been two alternative developments, one high publicity and the other that has been quietly developing over at least a decade.

Tesla makes electric passenger cars and is familiar to most of us as the most high profile concept of its kind. Now Tesla have released ‘Autopilot’ which does what it says on the tin, within the bounds of safety. This software, which is actually downloaded to customers as a software update rather than a physical visit to a dealership, will allow a Tesla vehicle to automatically steer within highway lane markers (US), change lanes and parallel park.

We understand that up to 60,000 Tesla Model S vehicles have the hardware required to run the software but it will cost an extra $2,500 to enable the software in the US.

This is not full driver control but goes some way towards it. Both Mercedes and Volvo have such technology in some of their products of their products and other manufacturers are developing similar technologies. Tesla claim to be the only ones using wireless to connect and have also recently said that their ultimate objective is a car which behaves like a ‘really good chauffeur’. With Google and Apple marching down this route we again flag that technology

is beginning to take over the key engineering selling points of product – unless it all goes horribly wrong. (One note of caution applies – Tesla shares fell in late October because the brand has ‘lost its recommendation from Consumer Reports’. Evidently growing pains and higher profile are leading to more complaints).

Back to the future almost is Toyota’s recent announcement that it is launching a hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle called ‘Mirai’. Hydrogen options have always been a possibility and over ten years ago we viewed another brand’s product packed with hydrogen fuel cells on long term test with the late Sir Jack Brabham. Miria is Japanese for ‘future’ and will help the brand meet its long term carbon dioxide emissions target.

Hydrogen fuel cells have a major range advantage over electric and are also quicker to re-fuel. Infrastructure is still a problem but this form of fuel should not yet be dismissed as it has the attraction of only water as a true by-product. Depending on what Governments think of the diesel issue, this could be hugely attractive as a vote winner in the ecology stakes.

An Apple a day is not what the doctor orderedApple CEO Tim Cook has again been waxing lyrically to the press about the ‘massive’ tech-led upheaval in the auto industry. We have referred to this frequently in previous issues of Messenger and observed that we are not too far away from the generation who see connectivity as way more important than a badge sat on some metal – harsh, but plausible.

“What I see is software becomes an increasingly important component of the car in future” Cook claimed. “Autonomous driving becomes very much more important in a huge way in future”. Not quite the comments of a CEO looking to build cars, but then again why would he? Software is the name of the game and Apple star in that field beyond doubt – their brand and trust is second to none.

For now the company is focussing on getting its CarPlay system in the forefront of drivers minds – Cook wants to see people have an iPhone experience whenever they get into a car. By plugging in to a car’s systems the iPhone acts as entertainment, information and communications gateway provider – a very powerful proposition. How manufacturers are reacting to this varies but it can only have a negative impact if that part of the consumer need exceeds everything else, including that badge.

News snippets from the automotive industry


14

More US finger-wagging to create concernWe are all very familiar with the issues that have beset General Motors, Toyota and now VW Group in the USA where standards appear more stringent and the punishments definitely more severe. Yet another motor manufacturer has fallen foul of errors in reporting and will now pay the high price for this misdemeanour. Fiat Chrysler has admitted under-reporting notices and claims of deaths, injuries and other information as part of their early warning system.

In a real twist of events, it appears that the US body the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ‘NHTSA’, had warned Fiat Chrysler in July that there were problems with its early warning systems and when said manufacturer looked in to the issue, bam, there were issues! The brilliantly titled ‘Tread Act’ requires that manufacturers report to NHTSA within five days of the relevant month end any claims that their vehicles have been responsible for crashes resulting in deaths or injuries of any severity. This may sound very onerous but with US legislation skewed very much towards ‘ambulance chasing’ legal claims, it is very much ‘ball in the court’ of the manufacturer to own up to almost any situation or face dire consequences.

In fairness, the NHTSA has also been the subject of pressure to raise its detection standards. It apparently missed issues with ignition switches in a series of General Motors compact cars over a number of years, which was linked to

at least 124 deaths. The whole system is becoming hardened to the point where testing is likely to jump off the Richter scale – so the Tesla concept above of self-drive cars must be way off!

More Uber versus Taxi battles – the war that won’t endA couple of my colleagues were overheard debating the rights and wrongs of the new Uber approach to hailing a ride – the knowledge, regulation and investment were all under the microscope. Ironically the debate arose because a late night taxi could not locate an address in London and our colleague was left mightily unimpressed!

Uber is not making many friends wherever it trades – it has fallen foul of Authorities in France and the Netherlands, the latter housing Uber’s European Headquarters. The whole argument is the disrupter technology angle and the impact that has on convenience and cost. Black Cab drivers rightly point to a legislation work around and level playing fields. Uber customers love the technology and flexibility. The war continues.

More disruption from the disruptors!Whilst Uber shakes up the whole taxi industry, another European start up is creating the new model of ride-sharing where motorists are paired with passengers needing a lift between cities. Whilst BlaBlaCar is Paris based, it has joined an elite club called ‘unicorns’ by being valued at over $1 billion as a private tech start up, recently raising $200 million in its latest funding round including two US Venture Capital firms.

Ordinarily this would not warrant a mention, but its success could result in fewer vehicles sold and have an impact on such operations as railways and long distance coaches. Infrastructure deficiencies create opportunities for BlaBlaCar which is almost exactly where auto manufacturers seek to develop their offerings and create volume, examples being South America and India.

BlaBlaCar does tread a very fine line with regulations but seems to meet the correct criteria. Motorists receive enough revenue to cover cost of fuel and other running costs, but do not make a profit which would apparently invalidate their insurance. In addition, BlaBlaCar avoids ‘for-hire’ service regulations which, as Uber very well know, is fraught with danger, controversy and lots of opposition!



Spectre – could this be the most poignant Bond movie yet?The new Bond movie is upon us and the DB10 car produced by Aston Martin will feature heavily and is on tour with dealers to showcase this very British of products. The problem is, however, that things are not too good at home and the brand has recently announced a restructuring programme impacting around 300 of its 2,100 employees, mainly non-production workers.

The new CEO who is working to streamline the business quoted that the brand currently ‘spends significantly more than it earns’ and the changes will be needed to keep investment viable in design, development and engineering, the absolute lifeblood for success. Let’s hope the ‘spectre’ of failure goes away, the film is a box office success and the product races off the shelves – we will see.

A storming US market creates supply issues – what a fickle industryDealers who are looking for stock, what a novel concept, yet the reality in the US is evidenced by the remarkable sales growth. September as a month showed a 16% rise over 2014 to 1.4 million units leading to a seasonally adjusted and annualised sales rate of 18.17 million, the best for a decade. US consumer demand

is very positive and the perfect alignment of low interest rates, low fuel prices and ageing vehicles that need replacing makes a big difference with increasing consumer confidence. So the US appears to be a ‘proper’ market again, something to contrast with our earlier comments around the UK. Things cannot be bad for the manufacturers when you see statistics such as the top three models in the US have sold over 1.3 million units in the nine month period!

UK production is going great gunsWe often focus so much on the distribution and retail sides of automotive we forget that the UK has a (currently) thriving production base with exports leading the way. Only a few of the manufacturers are British brands, nonetheless, the UK is benefiting from the improved European market and you only have to look at examples like the new Infiniti Q30 being built here in Sunderland to understand that continued growth will take the UK even further onwards. The big problem is the supply chain and where that sits – we are aware that components are arriving in the UK in crates only to leave again as whole cars, and that is not great for the economy.

Ferrari roars aheadThis iconic brand executed what appears to be a very successful IPO in October, raising $893 million by placing 17.2 million shares at $52 each in the US as part of the spin off from Fiat Chrysler. We understand this represents only a 9% stake in the Ferrari business, yet demand was allegedly strong. Analysts suggest an Enterprise value for the group of around £12 billion and the plan/success impetus will come from lifting production to over 10,000 vehicles per annum, a rise of around 30% on current levels.

Japan needs to be shaken upNot the whole country, of course! But the newly appointed head of one of the Japanese government investment funds is looking to trigger a shake-up in the country’s auto industry to avoid it suffering the same fate as its once-resilient electronics brands.

He is clearly thinking big, citing concerns around technological advances and vehicles being commoditised which consumer electronics experienced – he prefers to encourage consolidation inside and out of Japan and openly stated that “there are too many players in one industry”.

He has definitely not ruled out mergers with foreign companies and points to the success of the

News snippets continued...


16

Nissan-Renault Alliance. The message is similar to the long held view of Fiat Chrysler’s Sergio Marchionne around too many manufacturers in Auto and his more recent unsuccessful (to date) courting of GM.

Time will tell but we do sense that at last the industry sees a future in a changed world and recognises nothing can stay the same. Balancing short to medium term profit whilst effecting change is a massive skill, we can only wonder who will come off best? The Japanese head was astute enough to refer to the supply chain as well, it is not immune from change.

On the buses – Chinese style!You may not remember the TV comedy series featuring the eponymous and bespectacled Olive, married in to a family featuring a London bus driver and a bus conductor. Times have changed a lot and now electric propulsion has reached the red double-decker with the recent announcement that BYD, the Chinese battery maker, backed by Warren Buffett, will show off the world’s first electric double-decker (and red) bus.

Sino-British relationships appear to be on a high at the moment, think nuclear power stations, and the latest innovation is a joint venture with Scottish manufacturer Alexander

Dennis. The objective is to produce zero-emission fleets for the UK over the next ten years – there is a plan to build 2,000, single-deckers in Falkirk in a deal generating £660 million in revenue.

If you live on London Bus route number 98, be prepared to be amazed – the double-decker is coming your way and when you hop out in the rain, there could be a Geely, hybrid electric London Taxi just waiting to mop you up! As you may gather, that is due out very shortly and given Nissan’s all-electric delayed entry in to the market, it could be a real winner.



Registration data

• New car registrations in the UK reached their highest-ever in September, 462,517 cars were registered, a rise of 8.6% on the previous year, as buyers took advantage of a range of competitive deals on both vehicle and finance packages. This September was the 43rd consecutive month of growth in the UK market.

• Total registrations this year 2015, have reach 2,096,886 – 7.1% higher than at the same point last year. It is the first time in the month of September that the two million mark has been passed since September 2004.

• There were gains across market sectors in both private and fleet. The fleet segment in 2015 year to date increased its share to 49%, versus year to date 2014 of 46.5%. This puts it ahead of private and could be an indication that production is beginning to reach saturation point and manufacturers are turning to short and medium cycle markets to maintain momentum. This will inevitably come at the cost of margin.

• Demand for diesel vehicles remained high across all categories, retail, fleet and business, but market share fell for

diesels cumulatively from 49.8% in September 2014 to 47.9% in September 2015. It remains unclear whether the recent news from VW has negatively affected demand for diesels in the UK market.

• There are no prizes for the best selling vehicles, although once again the Vauxhall Corsa splits the two Fords, Fiesta and Focus. The Ford Fiesta remains well ahead in cumulative registrations with over 100,000 to date. Golf and Qashqai occupy positions 4 and 5 and whilst the latter is just under 10,000 vehicles behind, who can say what the VW emissions issue might do for the final quarter?

• The Audi A3 rules the premium brand roost at the nine month stage but only by a mere 2,750 vehicles over the Mercedes C Class. BMW managed to catapult its MINI brand ahead of the latter with 35,879 vehicles helped by an enormous 8,754 registrations – or nearly 25% – in the month of September. There must be some exhausted MINI salesmen out there, look out for the product on the roads!

UK new car registrations September 2015YTD2015 YTD2014 2015/2014 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011

Brand Units Share (%) Units Share (%) % Change Units Share (%) Units Share (%) Units Share (%) Units Share (%)

Ford 268,328 12.8% 262,754 13.4% 2.1% 326,643 13.2% 310,865 13.7% 281,917 13.8% 265,894 13.7%

Vauxhall 212,100 10.1% 210,357 10.7% 0.8% 269,177 10.9% 259,444 11.5% 232,255 11.4% 234,710 12.1%

Volkswagen 182,441 8.7% 168,662 8.6% 8.2% 214,828 8.7% 194,085 8.6% 183,098 9.0% 179,290 9.2%

Audi 133,300 6.4% 126,487 6.5% 5.4% 158,987 6.4% 142,040 6.3% 123,622 6.0% 113,797 5.9%

Nissan 124,967 6.0% 106,890 5.5% 16.9% 138,338 5.6% 117,967 5.2% 105,835 5.2% 96,269 5.0%

BMW 124,309 5.9% 113,520 5.8% 9.5% 148,878 6.0% 135,583 6.0% 127,530 6.2% 116,642 6.0%

Mercedes-Benz 116,509 5.6% 99,096 5.1% 17.6% 124,419 5.0% 109,456 4.8% 91,855 4.5% 81,873 4.2%

Peugeot 84,593 4.0% 85,418 4.4% (1.0)% 103,566 4.2% 105,435 4.7% 99,486 4.9% 94,989 4.9%

Toyota 81,604 3.9% 76,055 3.9% 7.3% 94,012 3.8% 88,648 3.9% 84,563 4.1% 73,589 3.8%

Hyundai 70,623 3.4% 65,564 3.3% 7.7% 81,986 3.3% 76,918 3.4% 74,285 3.6% 62,900 3.2%

Citroen 66,338 3.2% 66,542 3.4% (0.3)% 83,397 3.4% 78,358 3.5% 73,656 3.6% 68,464 3.5%

Kia 64,208 3.1% 62,538 3.2% 2.7% 77,525 3.1% 72,090 3.2% 66,629 3.3% 53,615 2.8%

Skoda 60,144 2.9% 60,386 3.1% (0.4)% 75,488 3.0% 66,081 2.9% 53,602 2.6% 45,061 2.3%

Renault 59,221 2.8% 50,732 2.6% 16.7% 66,334 2.7% 46,173 2.0% 40,760 2.0% 68,449 3.5%

Fiat 51,867 2.5% 53,781 2.7% (3.6)% 67,162 2.7% 60,198 2.7% 49,907 2.4% 41,612 2.1%

Land Rover 49,881 2.4% 45,483 2.3% 9.7% 56,200 2.3% 54,699 2.4% 48,626 2.4% 37,637 1.9%

MINI 47,182 2.3% 36,584 1.9% 29.0% 53,661 2.2% 51,933 2.3% 51,324 2.5% 50,138 2.6%

Honda 43,563 2.1% 44,102 2.3% (1.2)% 53,544 2.2% 55,660 2.5% 54,208 2.7% 50,577 2.6%

SEAT 40,520 1.9% 42,611 2.2% (4.9)% 53,512 2.2% 45,312 2.0% 38,798 1.9% 36,089 1.9%

Mazda 37,923 1.8% 31,373 1.6% 20.9% 37,784 1.5% 31,228 1.4% 26,183 1.3% 31,219 1.6%

Volvo 32,391 1.5% 30,784 1.6% 5.2% 41,066 1.7% 32,666 1.4% 31,790 1.6% 32,657 1.7%

Suzuki 28,706 1.4% 31,431 1.6% (8.7)% 37,395 1.5% 33,088 1.5% 24,893 1.2% 20,295 1.0%

Dacia 20,386 1.0% 18,583 0.9% 9.7% 23,862 1.0% 17,146 0.8% – – – –

Jaguar 17,966 0.9% 14,627 0.7% 22.8% 18,401 0.7% 16,210 0.7% 14,109 0.7% 13,787 0.7%

Other 77,816 3.7% 53,836 2.7% 44.5% 70,270 2.8% 63,454 2.8% 65,678 3.2% 71,700 3.7%

Total 2,096,886 1,958,196 2,476,435 2,264,737 2,044,609 1,941,253

Source: SMMT


18

• Europe and EFTA really seem to be back on track and having recorded growth at the half year of 8.2% cumulative, the result for the nine months cumulative increased to 8.8% on the back of some solid months. September 2015 is now the 25th consecutive month of growth, clearly inclusive of the UK’s continuing success. This is notably being achieved with below average growth in Germany, the biggest European market.

• Indeed it is very noticeable that the three big powerhouse markets of Germany, France and the UK have recorded cumulative growth in 2015 over 2014 of below the 8.8% average with the UK being the closest to that number. Italy is making a useful contribution being the fourth largest market with a growth rate of 15.3% including a very good month of September.

• ACEA do point out in their press release that despite passing ten million units for the nine months to 30 September 2015, this is well short of the pre-recession 2007 number of almost twelve million units. The natural assumption is that there is a lot more to come which will be music to the ears of the European manufacturers – early suggestions we have seen suggest that the Germans are still buying VWs despite the testing issue. VW Group still has the biggest market share at 25% and it will be interesting to see if others take advantage of their challenges and start to bring that market share down?

• Nissan has again claimed a substantial increase in market share and posted a growth of over 21%. Mercedes, Porsche, Mini, JLR and Mazda have all posted growth in excess of 10% which is very creditable and there are plenty of others around the ten percent mark. Nissan will be hoping that their Infiniti premium brand takes off in a major way in 2016 when the Q30, built in Sunderland for the European market, is finally launched. The only loser of note has been Honda with a fall of 3.6% but there is new products on the horizon and a famously loyal customer base to keep up spirits!

• Outside the big seven countries, performances have again been very positive. Ireland has posted 30% cumulative growth and Poland has improved from its half year position of 1.1% to 5.4%, but is now being hunted down by Sweden where registrations are now cumulatively less than 10,000 units behind having started the year with double that gap. The largest of the three EFTA countries, Switzerland, has recorded above average growth of 9.3% but it will be interesting to see what happens to October when there was an imposed ban for a period on the sale of VW diesel product?

Our expectation is for European consolidation to be more prevalent over the next few years. We already have two projects in the region and expect there to be further opportunities as owners take advantage of the improving market conditions to cash in their chips, and with cross-border very much an easier proposition, especially within the Euro-zone, more and bigger pan-European groups may emerge. There are still a number of independent distributors across Europe where the manufacturer has no National Sales Company – this creates a different dynamic which contributes to the country-by-country retail structures.

EU and EFTA passenger car registrations September 2015YTD2015 YTD2014 2015/2014 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011

Country Units Units % Change Units Units Units Units

Germany 2,407,938 2,281,671 5.5% 3,036,773 2,952,431 3,082,504 3,173,634

United Kingdom 2,096,886 1,958,196 7.1% 2,476,435 2,264,737 2,044,609 1,941,253

France 1,421,435 1,337,315 6.3% 1,795,885 1,790,456 1,898,760 2,204,229

Italy 1,196,270 1,037,388 15.3% 1,359,616 1,304,648 1,403,010 1,749,074

Spain 783,892 640,673 22.4% 855,308 722,689 699,589 808,051

Belgium 392,522 388,095 1.1% 482,939 486,065 486,737 572,211

Netherlands 301,826 284,047 6.3% 387,835 416,730 502,479 555,798

Others 1,812,906 1,644,070 10.3% 2,155,916 1,941,817 1,936,369 2,142,520

Total EU 10,413,675 9,571,455 8.8% 12,550,707 11,879,573 12,054,057 13,146,770

EFTA 362,991 334,410 8.5% 455,680 457,310 474,036 460,229

Total EU + EFTA 10,776,666 9,905,865 8.8% 13,006,387 12,336,883 12,528,093 13,606,999

Source: ACEA


• Truck demand was especially strong in the month of September posting a 24.8% increase over 2014 with Mercedes leading the way and doing exceptionally well.

• We commented earlier about the factors prevalent within the white van market and the total rise of some 17% sits atop an almost continuous growth since January 2010 when CV registrations were less than 200,000. The rolling year trend is now double five years ago which goes a long way to explain why Ford Transit franchises are so popular and equally the historic contribution to VW dealer performance where van and passenger car sit in the same portfolio.

• Within the under 3.5 tonne category of CV registrations, there are some interesting statistics which we have not previously documented. The biggest share of registrations

falls in the 2.5 to 3.5 tonne bracket and that segment represents one of the largest increases cumulative for 2015 at 21.4%, so above the average. What brings the percentage down overall is the second largest segment, 2.0 to 2.5 tonne where the growth has been a miserly 4.5%. This suggests to us the result of rapid growth in home delivery of food produce and online purchases, likely to continue for some time yet.

Registrations of new commercial vehicles in the United KingdomCommercial vehicles < 3.5t

YTD September 2015 YTD September 2014 2015/2014 FY2014 FY2013 FY2012 FY2011

Brand Units Share % Units Share % % Change Units Share % Units Share % Units Share % Units Share %

Ford 75,601 26.6% 62,439 25.8% 21.1% 82,519 25.7% 68,054 25.1% 62,372 26.0% 70,226 27.0%

Volkswagen 34,963 12.3% 30,821 12.7% 13.4% 40,238 12.5% 36,925 13.6% 30,956 12.9% 31,716 12.2%

Vauxhall 31,038 10.9% 22,494 9.3% 38.0% 32,619 10.1% 29,736 11.0% 26,524 11.1% 33,514 12.9%

Peugeot 26,390 9.3% 24,149 10.0% 9.3% 31,867 9.9% 21,230 7.8% 21,272 8.9% 19,328 7.4%

Citroen 23,996 8.4% 21,486 8.9% 11.7% 30,464 9.5% 22,989 8.5% 18,379 7.7% 17,275 6.6%

Mercedes 22,689 8.0% 21,344 8.8% 6.3% 27,228 8.5% 25,667 9.5% 21,055 8.8% 19,495 7.5%

Renault 17,577 6.2% 13,453 5.6% 30.7% 18,170 5.6% 12,978 4.8% 14,710 6.1% 19,382 7.5%

Nissan 9,708 3.4% 8,609 3.6% 12.8% 10,270 3.2% 10,619 3.9% 10,136 4.2% 10,854 4.2%

Fiat 9,456 3.3% 10,043 4.1% -5.8% 12,629 3.9% 12,019 4.4% 7,060 2.9% 8,130 3.1%

Toyota 8,118 2.9% 7,615 3.1% 6.6% 9,611 3.0% 8,063 3.0% 7,747 3.2% 8,391 3.2%

Land Rover 8,019 2.8% 6,226 2.6% 28.8% 8,344 2.6% 6,644 2.5% 5,917 2.5% 6,209 2.4%

Mitsubishi 6,992 2.5% 5,374 2.2% 30.1% 6,946 2.2% 5,927 2.2% 4,853 2.0% 7,341 2.8%

Isuzu 4,649 1.6% 4,047 1.7% 14.9% 5,502 1.7% 4,112 1.5% 2,762 1.2% 2,431 0.9%

Iveco 3,097 1.1% 1,947 0.8% 59.1% 2,769 0.9% 3,275 1.2% 3,593 1.5% 3,628 1.4%

Other 1,868 0.7% 2,024 0.8% -7.7% 2,510 0.8% 2,835 1.0% 2,305 1.0% 2,233 0.9%

Total light CV 284,161 242,071 17.4% 321,686 271,073 239,641 260,153

Commercial vehicles > 3.5t and < 6.0t



Ford 2,196 34.5% 1,302 26.2% 68.7% 1,852 27.2% 2,767 40.8% 2,879 40.4% 1,381 25.0%

Fiat 1,580 24.8% 795 16.0% 98.7% 1,313 19.3% 1,231 18.1% 1,416 19.9% 1,171 21.2%

Mercedes 1,461 23.0% 1,458 29.3% 0.2% 1,889 27.8% 1,485 21.9% 1,367 19.2% 1,458 26.3%

Peugeot 531 8.3% 303 6.1% 75.2% 386 5.7% 200 2.9% 359 5.0% 354 6.4%

Iveco 230 3.6% 326 6.6% -29.4% 402 5.9% 420 6.2% 444 6.2% 567 10.2%

Volkswagen 160 2.5% 302 6.1% -47.0% 401 5.9% 342 5.0% 251 3.5% 221 4.0%

Vauxhall 104 1.6% 105 2.1% -1.0% – – – – – – – –

Renault 59 0.9% 61 1.2% -3.3% 74 1.1% 117 1.7% 215 3.0% 113 2.0%

Other 43 0.7% 322 6.5% -86.6% 480 7.1% 226 3.3% 195 2.7% 269 4.9%

Total heavy CV 6,364 4,974 27.9% 6,797 6,788 7,126 5,534

Commercial vehicles > = 6.0t



Daf Trucks 8,037 26.1% 5,426 24.2% 48.1% 8,616 24.9% 14,046 28.4% 11,153 28.9% 9,863 26.4%

Mercedes 5,390 17.5% 3,996 17.8% 34.9% 6,485 18.7% 8,793 17.8% 6,422 16.6% 6,326 16.9%

Scania 4,984 16.2% 2,981 13.3% 67.2% 4,752 13.7% 6,846 13.8% 4,652 12.1% 4,071 10.9%

Volvo Trucks 4,075 13.2% 2,603 11.6% 56.6% 4,074 11.8% 5,524 11.2% 3,976 10.3% 4,624 12.4%

Man 2,611 8.5% 2,316 10.3% 12.7% 3,381 9.8% 4,934 10.0% 4,324 11.2% 4,772 12.8%

Iveco 2,277 7.4% 1,945 8.7% 17.1% 2,876 8.3% 3,773 7.6% 2,908 7.5% 2,834 7.6%

Renault Trucks 1,690 5.5% 1,420 6.3% 19.0% 2,050 5.9% 2,534 5.1% 2,555 6.6% 2,763 7.4%

Other 1,713 5.6% 1,724 7.7% -0.6% 2,438 7.0% 2,980 6.0% 2,586 6.7% 2,157 5.8%

Total heavy CV 30,777 22,411 37.3% 34,672 49,430 38,576 37,410

Sources : SMMT


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