Average Vacancy Duration Jumps to All-Time High in February

Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business

April 7, 2015

http://dicehiringindicators.com/

Sample Statistical Products Derived from JOLTS Data

Charts and tables produced using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey following the analytical framework and measurement methods in Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2012, 2013).

Steven J. Davisfaculty.chicagobooth.edu/steven.davis/

April 7, 2015

DecennialCensusHiring

Three-Month Moving Averages

Three-Month Moving Averages

Recruiting Intensity Index

By Industry and Time Period

 

2001 to 2003

2004 to 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Feb. 2015

Resources 0.99 1.07 1.05 0.70 1.00 0.96 1.06 0.93

Construction 1.07 1.04 0.89 0.89 1.01 0.93 0.90 0.89

Manufacturing 1.02 1.08 0.94 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.92 0.90

Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.05 1.10 0.96 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.04 1.03

Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 0.96 1.12 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.10 1.09

Information 1.10 1.08 0.87 0.82 0.92 1.06 1.13 1.17

Financial Services 1.05 1.09 0.99 0.84 0.87 0.98 0.95 0.97

Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.07 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.95 1.01 0.99

Education 1.00 0.99 1.05 0.97 0.99 0.96 1.00 0.96

Health Services 1.08 1.03 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.97 0.96

Leisure and Hospitality 1.08 1.08 0.97 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 0.97

Other Services 1.01 1.07 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.98 0.96 1.03

Government 1.06 1.05 0.92 0.86 0.93 0.93 0.98 1.01

Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 1.00 1.00

Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)

By Industry and Time Period

 

2001 to 2003

2004 to 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Feb. 2015

Resources 12.0 14.0 17.9 13.7 19.0 18.5 22.5 14.0

Construction 7.8 8.7 7.3 4.5 6.1 9.6 10.5 11.8

Manufacturing 17.4 21.0 21.5 13.6 23.5 28.6 29.1 32.4

Wholesale and Retail Trade 14.2 15.8 15.3 13.2 15.9 19.4 18.9 19.8

Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 18.5 17.3 20.8 10.5 18.1 22.5 23.8 25.3

Information 25.9 36.2 34.5 24.8 41.0 36.4 34.8 37.9

Financial Services 28.0 32.2 27.6 25.7 33.8 36.1 38.6 43.1

Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 21.4 16.4 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.2

Education 21.3 24.9 22.5 18.3 20.6 23.5 25.8 33.5

Health Services 39.1 35.8 36.3 29.8 33.7 34.6 38.0 42.6

Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.9 14.9 10.6 13.4 16.8 19.6 20.7

Other Services 22.3 18.4 23.7 17.1 18.6 20.2 20.9 20.3

Government 32.9 30.6 35.9 32.2 33.1 35.9 37.5 41.1

Non-Farm 19.2 20.1 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2 26.2

Focus on Professional & Business Services Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)

By Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Feb. 2015

Professional and Business Services18.2 20.0 21.4 16.4 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.2

Private18.3 19.4 20.0 15.5 19.0 21.6 23.3 25.2

Non-Farm19.2 20.1 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2 26.2

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

 

2001 to 2003

2004 to 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 2014 Jan.-Feb. 2015

Professional and Business Services1.08 1.07 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.95 1.01 0.99

Private 1.05 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99 0.99Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 1.00 1.00

Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment SizeSelected Time Periods

Class Size 2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Nov. 2014

% chg. 2009 – Nov. 2014

1-9 19.3 18.3 17.3 19.8 12.8 16.5 18.9 24.5 92%10-49 15.2 14.9 17.5 16.2 13.0 15.7 19.2 20.9 60%50-249 15.7 16.9 19.4 18.3 15.3 17.9 21.0 20.8 37%250-999 21.0 21.9 25.7 24.9 18.0 24.5 24.2 26.4 47%1000-4999 36.2 35.0 44.2 35.6 30.7 34.3 37.7 36.8 20%5000+ 47.4 43.7 37.1 39.6 40.6 55.1 56.4 58.3 44%

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Establishment Size and Time Period

Class Size 2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Nov. 2014

% chg. 2009 – Nov. 2014

1-9 0.99 1.10 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.88 -7%10-49 1.05 1.10 1.07 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.94 6%50-249 1.09 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.81 0.90 0.92 1.02 25%250-999 1.06 1.07 1.07 0.91 0.83 0.94 1.00 1.03 24%1000-4999 1.06 1.06 0.99 1.04 0.84 0.94 0.96 1.09 30%5000+ 0.97 1.11 1.38 1.13 0.76 0.78 0.83 0.88 16%

ReferencesDavis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012), 

“Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.

Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013), “The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.

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