aviation in the time of climate change presentation at naa.pdfairbus delivered 752 a320s in first 10...
TRANSCRIPT
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Graham Warwick,
Aviation Week
(apologies to Love in the Time of Cholera, by Gabriel García Márquez)
Aviation in the Time of Climate Change
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Aviation’s Commitment
Aviation has been proactive on the environment
➤ 2008 sector commitment to:
▪ 1.5% annual average fuel-efficiency improvements through 2020
▪ Carbon-neutral growth from 2020
▪ 50% net reduction in CO₂ by 2050, relative to 2005 (“aspirational”)
➤ US airlines carried 34% more passengers and cargo in 2017 than in 2000,
while emitting no more CO₂
(Nancy Young, VP Environmental Affairs, Airlines for America (A4A), Feb 26 testimony to the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure)
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Aviation’s Commitment
Aviation has been proactive on the environment
➤ 2008 sector commitment to:
▪ 1.5% annual average fuel-efficiency improvements through 2020
▪ Carbon-neutral growth from 2020
▪ 50% net reduction in CO₂ by 2050, relative to 2005 (“aspirational”)
But is it still sufficient?
➤ 2015 Paris Agreement:
▪ Keep global temperature rise this century well below 2°C
▪ Pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C
➤ 2018 IPPC Special Report:
▪ Global warning likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052
Is 2030 the new 2050?
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The Public’s Perception
➤ 23% of Swedes opted out of air travel in 2018 to reduce climate impact (World Wildlife Fund Climate Barometer 2019)
➤ Swedish airport passengers drop year-on-year for 7 consecutive months, number at state train operator jumped to a record
(Bloomberg, April 2019)
(Transport & Environment, European environmental NGO)
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How Well Are We Doing?
Air Transport Action Group’s famous chart from 2008:
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How Well Are We Doing?
The reality:
➤ ICAO CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme:
▪ International flights only (to avoid duplication with domestic schemes)
▪ Voluntary from 2021 (but 78% of international activity covered)
▪ Mandatory from 2027
➤ ICAO global CO₂ standard:
▪ “Technology-following” standard (as is noise, which has worked)
▪ New type-design aircraft from 2020 (entry into service c2024 onwards)
▪ In-production a/c from 2023 (no production beyond 2028 for noncompliant a/c)
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The Technology
➤ Average efficiency improvement has been 1.5%/yr, but comes in steps of 15-20% every 10-15 years
➤ It takes time to deploy new technology into the airliner fleet, but it is getting faster
▪ Airbus delivered 752 A320s in first 10 years - and 635 A320neos in first 3 years
▪ A320neo is 15% more efficient than A320ceo – will be 20% by 2020
▪ Boeing delivered 2,650 737s in 1998-2007 - and 4,554 in 2009-2018
▪ 737 MAX is 14-20% more fuel-efficient than 737NG
➤ There is more technology waiting in the wings - but an all-new single-aisle airliner is 10-15 years away
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Sustainable Alternative Jet Fuel
➤ Many feedstock-to-fuel pathways approved, but commercialization has been slow
▪ Most flights to date used fuel from one supplier - World Energy at 45m gal/yr
▪ More capacity coming on line - c900m gal/yr in 2020 (about half jet fuel)
▪ World Energy, Fulcrum, LanzaTech, Neste, Red Rock, SG Preston, etc
Aviation used 98bn gallons of jet fuel in 2016, so a long way to go
➤ Feedstock availability a concern, but more fuel pathways pending approval:
▪ including green diesel (aka HEFA+) to tap into existing/planned biorefinery capacity
▪ Renewable diesel/jet fuel production forecast to increase four-fold to 19.7bn tons annually by 2030
(Renewable Diesel 2030 - 2019 study by Emerging Markets Online)
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Another Way of Looking at the Challenge
(Roland Berger 2018 research study)
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So what About the Electrification of Aviation?
➤ Small aircraft look feasible - electrifying single-aisles looks impractical, twin-aisles impossible
▪ In US in 2017, twin-aisles used 57% of fuel, single-aisles used 36% - together 93% of emissions
▪ Average single-aisle stage length was 700nm for a/c under 150 seats, 1,100 nm over 150 seats
▪ Announced electric and hybrid-electric aircraft are small and/or short range:
▪ Zumun ZA12 (hybrid) - 12 pax, 610 nm (vs PC-12 @ 1,850 nm)
▪ Eviation Alice (battery) - 9 pax, 565nm
▪ UTC Project 804 (hybrid) - 50 pax, 600nm (30% fuel saving vs Dash 8 at 200-250nm)
▪ Wright Electric (battery) - 180 pax, 270nm (vs A320neo @ 3,400nm)
➤ Is it possible to create an airline market for such short-range aircraft?
➤ Emissions for electric aircraft have to factor in the greenness of the grid
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What Will be the Impact of ‘New’ Aviation?
➤ Urban air mobility - cleaner, maybe, but only when ridesharing over longer distances?
▪ Fully loaded (4 people) over 100km, eVTOL well-to-wing emissions are 52% lower than internal-combustion and 6% lower than battery-electric vehicles with average occupancy of 1.54 people
(University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems
paper in Nature Communications, April 2019)
➤ Supersonic air travel - as SSTs burn more fuel, will carbon offsetting be sufficient?
▪ A fleet of 2,000 SSTs could consume 5-7 times as much fuel per passenger as subsonic aircraft, with CO₂ emissions comparable to American, Delta and Southwest combined in 2017
(International Council for Clean Transportation Working Paper 2019-02)
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Is There a Way Forward for Aviation?
➤ Goal being set for Europe’s Clean Sky 3 aeronautics research program:
▪ Deliver, by the middle of the next decade, mature technologies for an 80% reduction in commercial air transport’s CO₂ emissions by 2050
▪ Aligned with 2015 Paris Agreement
➤ Which means:
▪ TRL 6 by 2025-27
▪ Entry into service by 2030-35
▪ Deployed across the fleet by 2050
This is aggressive by aviation standards
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Is There a Way Forward for Aviation?
➤ Goal being set for Europe’s Clean Sky 3 aeronautics research program:
▪ Deliver, by the middle of the next decade, mature technologies for an 80% reduction in commercial air transport’s CO₂ emissions by 2050
➤ “[Passengers] may choose not to fly any more. It is a threat we are all facing together, so decarbonization is not the flavor of the year”
- Grazia Vittandina, Airbus CTO
➤ “We need to have a sense of being at war; the good news is we are all on the same side”
- Ron Van Manen, Clean Sky 2 program manager,
Clean Sky Joint Undertaking
