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Defense, space anD security

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Bill Sweetman (Chief Editor, Defense Technology Edition)

civil aviation/Maintenance, repair anD overhaul

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(Associate Managing Editor), Sean Broderick, John Croft,

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Departments

8 Feedback

Whos Where

10-11 The World

12 Up Front

13 Commanders Intent

14 Inside Business Aviation

15 Airline Intel

16 In Orbit

17 Washington Outlook

47 Classifed

48 Contact Us

49 Aerospace Calendar

theWorlD

10 Deltalaunchwith classifed NRO satellite uses new ignition

sequence to counter freballs

10 nasahelicopter crash test evaluates improvements to seats

and belts, helps data collection

11 twoF-35Bsin trials designed to openenvelope for night fying around the

ship and ops in varying winds

saFety

18 socialmediacampaign against Super Pumas could have impact

beyond North Sea oil industry

20 Internationalresearch plan defnedfor icing study as Boeing and

GE test countermeasures

aeronaUtICs

21 nasahoningits focus on six challenges that could lead

to quantum leaps in aeronautics

aVIonICs

23 nasalangleyserving as an evalu -ation facility for C2 technologies

for UAVs and light aircraft

DeFense

24 Boeingfnallycatches U.S. Navys attentionand supportfor a

series of F/A-18E/F upgrades

mosCoWaIrshoW

28t-50beingdesigned to carry heavy, long-range missiles internally,

new engine under development

spaCe

30europeanstar-mapperexpected to create largest, most accurate 3-D model of the Milky Way

aIrtransport

31sukhoissuperjet enters new territory as Mexicos Interjet introduces its frst SSJ 100

32 aerlingus is big step closer to being an independent airline, but fght with Ryanair is likely to continue

33 Indiathreatening to withdraw trafc rights from two international airlines if Air India is barred from Star

34 Boeingsfrststretched 787-9 is undergoing initial ground tests in preparation for its initial fight

With Runway 18 and its precision approach path indicator lights in the

background, wreckage from UPS Flight 1354 rests in a feld just shy of

the Birmingham, Ala., airport.36

The remnants of the tail section of

UPS Flight 1354 lie near Birmingham-

Shuttlesworth International Airport

in Alabama, its intended destination,

which is in the background of this

photo and the one above, both

from the NTSB. With back-to-back

widebody crashes in the U.S. in

June and Julyan Asiana Airlines

Boeing 777-200ER in San Francisco

and the UPS Airbus A300-600F in

Birminghamwe oer an in-depth

look at global safety initiatives.

Gaia spacecraft expected to survey the brightness of 1 billion, or 1%, of the stars and other celestial bodies in the Milky Way.

New NASA strat-egy aligns aeronautics research with six thrusts shaped to help industry avoid complacency.

Russian aerospace industry needs Superjet 100 to succeed in the in-ternational market.

CoVerstorIes

NTSB

36

30

21

31

AVIATION WEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

4 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/September 2, 2013 aviationWeek.com/awst

Digital Extras Tap this icon in articles in the digital edition of AW&ST for exclusive features. If you have not signed up to receive your digital subscription, go to AviationWeek.com/awstcustomers

Winner 2013

ContentsSeptember 2, 2013 Volume 175 Number 30

9

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eDItorIal

50Industrymustembrace and support NASAs aeronautics strategy, to counter complacency

40

13

10

enGIneerInG

35 researchonalbatrosses could helpoptimize fightpaths and control surfaces of gliders and UAVs

FlIGhtsaFety

36 Grassrootsindustry monitoring efort eyes practical steps to upgrade defcient piloting skills

38testingwith simulators is part of gov-ernment and industry efort to re-

duce potential for runway incursions

40 pushtoenable airport ops in near-zero visibility spurs techno-

logy work for fight segments

41embry-riddlestudents create low-cost taxi tool to win FAA

competition in runway design

42 FaaandU.s. airline industry team members use data-mining

or proactive safety approach

44 easaworkingto improve quality of the safety data from mandatory

occurrence-reporting system

45 severalinitiatives budding across Africa to improve safety of airline

ops and air transport supply chain


A round-up of what youre reading on AviationWeek.com

Senior Pentagon Editor Amy Butler was onboard the USS Wasp to get details on how the F-35Bs night

fights are progressing. Go to our Ares blog to read about what she learned, and view photos and videos

of the short takeofs and vertical landings on the amphibious assault ship. AviationWeek.com/Ares

Aviation Weeks MRO Europe conference

is fast approaching, with nearly 2,500 attendees signed up

for the London event. View the agenda and learn how

to follow the show on our live blogs. ow.ly/onyb4

mroeurope

Indias Kiran Ganesh won an honorable mention in the American Helicopter Society

Internationals student design competition for this tailless, rotor-in-wing Kurara. Read

about the contest and view more photos at: ow.ly/onxv5 AviationWeek/thingswithwings

MyAWIN allows subscribers to set up custom-

ized email news alerts for delivery on a daily

or weekly basis. AviationWeek.com/awin

On the article ISS Cargo Candidates Ready

For Fly-Off, DeweyV surveyed the missions

to come this year and wrote: Letting the

ISS mission slip a few weeks to get some new booster

performance data and experience seems smart to me.

reaDer

Comment

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Keep up with all the news and blogs from

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Aeroholics Anonymous

There a very bizarre quote in Wil-liam Garveys recent Inside Business Aviation column (AW&ST Aug. 19, p. 20) in which George Antoniadis said he wanted to disprove . . . the belief that aviation destroyed billions of dol-lars of value every year. I should like to know who holds such

a view, just what they consider to be value and what is their evidence. Antoniadis was apparently paraphras-ing someone else.Destroy is such a big word, and to

generalize that to an entire economic sector takes my breath away. Some-body out their is really out of touch.John D. Brinton SpokAne, WASh.

(Perhaps it was based on a 2002 in-terview in the London newspaper The Telegraph: [T]he airline business . . . has eaten up capital over the past century like almost no other business because people seem to keep . . . putting fresh money in. Youve got huge fxed costs, strong labor unions and commodity pricingnot a great recipe for success. I have an 800 (toll-free) number I call if I get the urge to buy an airline stock. I say: My name is Warren [Bufet] and Im an aeroholic. And then they talk me down.Ed).

end merger mAdness

Regarding the editorial Airline M&A Sense and nonsense (AW&ST Aug. 26, p. 54), a great to-do is made about the mediocre fnancial history of these so-called legacy carriers but no one bothers to mention how destruc-tively costly deregulation has been to the airline industry, airline and airline-related employees, shippers, investors, creditors, communities and the nation. The airline industry isnt some Mom

and pop store that can be merged or go out of business. It is a utility vital to the commerce of the nation. Deregu-lation threw a monkey wrench into that industry from which it has yet to recover, hence the merger mania desperately seeking the magic that will solve all the problems and as Rep. Bill Schuster (R-pa.) characterized the American Airlines-US Airways merger make it whole. how many more mergers will it take

to make that industry whole? prob-ably no amount. Mergers are not about making things more efcient and reduc-ing costs for passengers. Mergers are about personal egos seeking to create market power until eventually, without

government constraints, the last one is standing and the customer and the nation be damned! Government, there-fore, plays a critical role in maintaining airline service and pricing rationale. The Justice Department is correct

in challenging the AA-US Air merger. Indeed it should have opposed the UnitedContinental and the Delta-northwest mergers as well.Karl KettlerFleMInGTon, n.J.

move To The reAr

Bill Sweetmans commentary Com-manders Intent belongs in the back pages of your magazine. I subscribe for technically oriented storiesnot opinionated, vitriolic ramblings. his musings are better suited in the space usually reserved for editorials. In Save the JSF. Really? (AW&ST Aug. 19, p. 19) dragons, stolen gold, civilian goblins and treasure are refer-enced in just one paragraph. Technical articles have been the

hallmark of AW&ST for the 25-plus years Ive been reading it. please keep it that way.U.S. Navy Capt. (ret.) Michael V. RabensSoloMonS, MD.

dissension in The rAnks

Bravo for Bill Sweetman. If I were still in Defense Departments cost assess-ment and program evaluation division, as I was in the late 1980s, his proposal for the Joint Strike Fighter (AW&ST Aug. 19, p. 19), would be exactly what I would recommend: kill the B and C models, preserving the U.S. Air Forces F-35A. This is not about parochialism or

threats and capabilities. It is about balancing budget, force structure and

aircraft procurement. We cant reduce force structure (much), so we need X new aircraft yearly bought with Y dollars. With JSF that equation does not

balance. The death spiral of smaller budgets to buy fewer aircraft, resulting in higher unit costs, leading to even fewer aircraftand ultimately hollow squadronsawaits us. like every ex-military pilot, Id love to

see us fying the latest, greatest aircraft. But the reality is we face serious fund-ing constraints, and we must preserve a robust tactical air force structure. U.S. Navy Cmdr. (ret.) David TusseyneW YoRk, n.Y.

ouT of PlAce

Recently, I have been fnding inac-curacies in your magazine. A photo caption with Terrain Aware (AW&ST Aug. 5/12, p. 51) states: AFDDs JUh-60A Rascal fies . . . through canyon country west of San Jose, Calif. The mountains west of San Jose are the Santa Cruz Mountains and they are cov-ered with green vegetation, the Diablo Range, as shown, is east of San Jose. I am neither an engineer nor a scien-

tist, so I wonder what I havent caught.Jim JellisonpleASAnTon, CAlIF.

hAPPy chAnce encounTer

I have no knowledge nor even inter-est in aviation but picked up your maga-zine by chance. I perused it because of the inherent quality evident on every page. The writing, reporting and pre-sentation all add up to a near-perfect package. every other publication and periodical I look at these days is rife with errors as copy editors are replaced by computers. even highly respected technical jour-

nals have been dumbed down. Thank you for having such high standards and for soliciting suggestions on how to improve (AW&ST April 22, p. 58). You have gained a reader.Kathy DubyMIll VAlleY, CAlIF.

Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes the opinions of its readers on issues raised in the magazine. Address letters to the Executive Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1200 G St., Suite 922, Washington, D.C. 20005. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail to: [email protected]

Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and you must give a genuine identification, ad-dress and daytime telephone number. We will not print anonymous letters, but names will be withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.

8 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/September 2, 2013 AviationWeek.com/awst

been appointed CFO of Yankee Pacifc Aerospace Inc., Rye, N.H. Its Largo, Fla.-based Jormac Aerospace subsidiary has named Jerry Koh vice president-fight sciences and Colt Mehler vice president-project engineering. Hokanson succeeds Ron Moore, who was consulting CFO.USAF Lt. Gen. Robin Rand has

been nominated for promotion to general and assignment as com-mander of the Air Education and Training Command, Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph, Texas. He has been commander of the Twelfth Air Force (Air Forces Southern) of Air Combat Com-mand, Davis-Monthan AFB, Ariz. Maj. Gen. Russell J. Handy been nominated for promotion to lieu-tenant general and assignment as commander of Alaskan Com-mand, U.S. Pacifc Command/commander of the Eleventh Air Force, Pacifc Air Forces/com-mander, Alaskan North Ameri-can Defense Region, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. He has been director of opera-tions, plans, requirements and programs at Headquarters Pa-cifc Air Forces, Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii.Ben Humbert has been

named general manager of Landmark Aviations facility at Gerald R. Ford International Airport, Grand Rapids, Mich. He was a safety and training manager at Atlantic Aviation.Greg Roberts has become

vice president of U.K.-based Curtiss-Wright Controls Avionics and Electronics. He was manag-ing director in the U.K. for the C4ISR and UAV businesses of Northrop Grumman, Defense and SecurityUSN Rear Adm. (lower half) Paul A.

Sohl has been named commander of Fleet Readiness Centers/assistant com-mander for logistics and industrial oper-ations of Naval Air Systems Command, NAS Patuxent River, Md. He has been commander of the Naval Air Warfare Center, Weapons Division/assistant com-mander for test and evaluation of Naval Air Systems Command (AIR-5.0), China Lake, Calif. Capt. Michael T. Moran has

Stephen M. Nolan

Jerry Koh

Jay Tibbets

Colt Mehler

Peter Hokanson

C. L. Gentemann

Douglas E. Scott has become senior vice president/general counsel of AeroVironment Inc.,

Monrovia, Calif. He was head of the legal department at the Science Appli-cations International Corp. David Yu has been appointed Beijing-

based executive director of business development-Asia for the International Bureau of Aviation. He will continue as managing director of Inception Avia-tion. Yu was Libra Groups chief China representative and vice president-Asia.Stephen M. Nolan (see photos) has

been named senior vice president-strategy and business development and Jay Tibbets senior vice president and president of the Sporting Group of Arlington, Va.-based ATK. Nolan was interim senior vice president-business development and had been vice presi-dent/general manager of the Advanced Systems Div. Tibbets was his groups senior vice president-business devel-opment and had been vice president-strategy and business development for ATK Armament Systems.Brian C. Mooney has become inter-

im CEO and Ultan OBrien has been named sales, marketing and product consultant at Las Vegas-based Alle-giant Systems. Mooney succeeds An-drew Kemmetmueller, who has left the company. OBrien was a sales and marketing director at Retail inMotion.James F. Hankinson has been named

chairman of Montreal-based CAE. He succeeds Lynton R. Wilson who has re-tired from CAEs board.Luiz Sandler has been appointed

vice president-sales for South America for the Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. He succeeds Bill Arrazola, who has retired. He was sales director for In-ternational Jet Traders, Gulfstreams sales representative for Brazil.Allan Dunne has become head

of fight training at Cardif Aviation in Wales. He was head of training at Spain-based Flight Training Europe.Phillip Wade has been promoted to

vice president-business development from manager of the quality and R&D groups of Smiths Group company Tite-fex Aerospace, Laconia, N.H.Sam Jantzen has been named vice

president-marketing for Blackhawk Modifcations, Waco, Texas. Peter Hokanson (see photos) has

been selected for promotion to rear admiral (lower half) and to succeed Sohl at Naval Air Sys-tems Command.

Honors And ElEctions

Scott Hubbard, who led NASA Ames Research Cen-ter, Calif., for four years and conceived the airbag landing system of the Mars Pathfnder mission, is scheduled to be inducted into the Kentucky Avia-tion Hall of Fame in Lexington on Oct. 26. Hubbard, a Ken-tucky native, is now at Stanford Universitys Aeronautics and Astronautics Department. He is a member of the International Academy of Astronautics and received the Von Karman Med-al from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronau-tics. Hubbard will be honored with Suzanne Guy Alexander, whose FAA career included supervision of the countrys busiest airspace; George Gum-bert, founder of the Kentucky Aviation History Roundtable, later the Aviation Museum of Kentucky; and George Lar-kin, one of 80 Army Air Force volunteers who participated in the April 1942 Doolittle Raid on Japan in World War II.Chelle L. Gentemann (see

photo), senior principal scien-tist at Remote Sensing System (RSS), has been named to receive this years Falkenberg Award from the Ameri-can Geophysical Union on Dec. 11. The award is given to a scientist under age 45 who has contributed to the qual-ity of life, economic opportunities and stewardship of the planet through the use of Earth science information. Gen-temanns current research at RSS fo-cuses on the extraction of accurate geo-physical variables from measurements of imaging microwave radiometers on Earth observation satellites. c

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AviationWeek.com/awst AviATiON WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 2, 2013 9

Air TrAnsporT

Bombardier, russians in DealsA long-rumored agreement to build the Bombardier Q400 regional turboprop in Russia is a step closer to realization with the signing of a memorandum of understanding with state-controlled Rostekhnologii (Rostec) to validate the opportunity to set up a local assembly

line. Bombardier believes Russia is a strong market for the slow-selling Q400, which is losing ground elsewhere to the cheaper ATR 72, because its greater capacity, higher speed and longer range are of value to Russian airlines. Rostec also signed a letter of intent (LOI) for 50 Q400s, and a market development agreement involving aircraft leasing subsidiary Avia Capital Services to

Delta Uses new ignition sequence To Counter FireballsA classifed U.S. National Reconnaissance Offce KH-11 Keyhole satellite was suc-

cessfully launched into low Earth orbit from Vandenberg AFB, Calif., on Aug. 28 by a

United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy.

The vehicle, which represents only the second Delta IV Heavy fight from the Califor-

nia site, was confgured with standard RS-68-powered, liquid hydrogen-fueled common

booster cores (CBCs). The launch used an ignition sequence recently developed by ULA

and engine maker Aerojet Rocketdyne to counter the formation of hydrogen freballs

that, in previous launches, have enveloped large parts of the frst stage of the rocket

during liftoff.

This occurs because just prior to launch, thousands of pounds of hydrogen are

pumped through the three CBC frst-stage engines to optimize the hydrogen/oxygen

mix for ignition. Excess gas is deliberately burned off by radial outwardly fring ignit-

ers, or spark generators, prior to ignition. However, due to the large volume of gas

and other factors, including the vehicles relatively slow initial ascent profle, some

gas burns in pockets of fame that scorch the insulation on the frst stage as it clears

the launch tower.

To mitigate the freball effect for this launch, designated NROL-65, the starboard

CBC was ignited at T-7 sec., 2 sec. earlier than the port and core units. The frst engine

entrained and ignited excess hydrogen from the other two, preventing the development of

signifcant freballs. Images of the vehicle climbing away from Vandenbergs Space Launch

Complex 6 appear to show substantially less scorching on the port and center CBCs as

a result of the procedural change. Longer-term design changes are planned, including

alterations to the timing of the valves in the hydrogen system and alternate chill-down

methods using cooled helium.

The NROL-65 mission was the second Delta IV fight in a month following the

launch of the U.S. Wideband Global Satcom satellite on Aug. 8. It also marks the

eighth ULA launch and third overall Delta IV fight for the year. The mission as well

marks what is thought to be the last launch of a KH-11 reconnaissance satellite,

becoming the 16th to be placed in orbit since the frst variant was deployed in 1976.

The World


nAsA Drops Helicopter in Full-scale Crash Test

NASA Langley Research Center conducted a

full-scale crash test of a former U.S. Marine

Corps Boeing CH-46E helicopter on Aug. 28

to test improvements to seats and belts and

collect crashworthiness data. The drop set

the baseline for another test, planned for

next year, that will involve additional technology includ-

ing composite airframe sections. Thirteen instrumented

crash-test dummies and two without instruments were

onboard the helicopter when it was released from 30 ft.

to impact a soil bed at 35 fps. horizontally and 26 fps.

vertically. By tracking the black dots of the speckled

paint scheme using high-speed camera imagery, NASA

will be able to calculate how the fuselage deformed

under crash loads.

provide an opportunity to place at least 50 additional Q400s in the region. Establishing a Q400 fnal-assembly line is a key commercial requirement of both the LOI and market development agree-ment, Bombardier says. Separately, Ilyushin Finance Co. (IFC) has signed an LOI for 50 Q400s to be assembled in Russia by the joint venture. IFC already is a customer for Bombardiers CSeries airliner, with a frm order for 32 CS300s, fve of which are to be leased to Moscow-based Vim Airlines. Bombardier has also signed an LOI to begin exploratory discussions with Irkut centered on po-tential collaboration customer support for Russias 150-210-seat MS-21, which is scheduled to enter service in 2017.

Lufthansa MD-11F phaseoutLufthansa Cargo plans to phase out two of its MD-11s next year in an efort to limit capacity growth. The airline is tak-ing delivery of its frst two of fve Boeing 777Fs on frm order, one each in October and November. The carrier currently operates 18 MD-11Fs. While it has not grounded any aircraft during the past two years of weak cargo demand, it has reduced use across the feet.

William G. Hartenstein

nasa PHotos

Airbus in Titanium MoUAirbus and VSMPO-Avisma, its major Russian titanium supplier, have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop new alloys and manufacturing processes. The deal was signed at the Moscow air show. VSMPO-Avisma has become one of Airbuss most important suppliers of raw materials and semi-fnished products since the 1990s. It currently provides 60% of the titanium needed by Airbus and its parent EADS. VSMPO-Avisma builds titanium forgings for all Airbus programs and is delivering the pieces for the A350.

outcry in ArgentinaA government-issued 10-day notice to LAN Argentina to vacate its 2,500-sq.-meter hangar at Aeroparque airport in Buenos Aires without any forewarning, has provoked aviation labor unions to threaten strikes on Aug. 30 if the notice is not withdrawn. An Argentinean judge blocked the eviction on Aug. 28, and the CEOs of LAN and LAN Argentina met with the governments vice minster of economy on Aug. 29, who told the execu-tives that LAN Argentina was welcome to continue operating in the country.

spACE

Change 3 on TrackChinas lunar exploration program will meet its long-standing target to launch the Change 3 sample-return mission this year, but only just, according to a govern-ment authority with oversight of space activities. The mission will launch at year-end, says the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense. Change 3 is to demon-strate soft landing on the Moon, survey-

ing of the surface by rover, survival on the lunar surface, communications for long-distance monitoring and control, and direct injection into a lunar transfer orbit. Two previous Change missions orbited and surveyed the Moon.

DEFEnsE

First Flight for TrainerTurkish Aerospace Industries has completed the frst fight of the Hurkus, the countrys frst indigenously pro-duced turboprop trainer. The prototype became airborne from TAIs facility at Akinci air base near Ankara on Aug. 29 for a 33-min. fight, which saw it climb to 9,500 ft. Powered by a 1,600-shp Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-68T engine, Hurkus has been developed to compete with other turboprop trainers. TAI hopes to achieve EASA certifca-tion of the Hurkus at the end of 2014.

swiss panel oKs Gripen ESwitzerlands national security policy committee has voted in favor of purchasing 22 Saab JAS-39E Gripen fghter aircraft to replace the countrys aging feet of Northrop F-5 Tiger IIs. The upper house of the Swiss parlia-ment approved the purchase earlier this year, but it halted the program over concerns about payments, as well as guarantees and safeguards in the contract with Sweden. The deal still requires parliamentary approval.

Correction: An article on page 40 of the July 29 edition misidentifed a speaker at a congressional hearing. Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) is the U.S. House Armed Services Committee member who should have been quoted.

For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/September 2, 2013 11

40%

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8/29 9/12 10/24 11/21 12/19 1/16 2/13 3/13 4/10 5/8 5/29 6/5 7/3 7/31 8/28

2012 2013

AW&ST/S&P Market Indices as of 8/28/2013

AW Aerospace 25

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-1.0%

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29.5%

7.9%

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*PERCENTAGE CHANGEPERCENTAGE CHANGE

Two F-35B Joint Strike Fighters have

conducted 19 night sorties, including short

takeoffs (STO) and vertical landings (VL) on

the USS Wasp amphibious assault ship.

These are among the 94 STOs and 95

VLs conducted thus far in Developmental

Testing 2, a follow-on to a set of day-only

DT trials in 2011. The trials, slated to

end last week, are designed to open the

envelope to include night ying around the

ship, different approaches and headings for

landings and conducting these operations in

varying wind conditions. So far, testing has

been conducted in headwinds of 35 kt and

crosswinds of 15 kt, says Navy Capt. Kurt

Kastner, executive ofcer of the Wasp, which

was operating about 35 mi. offshore.

They have also own with internal weapons

stores using inert AIM-120s, GBU-12s and

GBU-32s to alter the aircrafts center of gravity

for approaches, VLs and STOs. Pilots on deck

did not report any anomalies.

Peter Wilson, a BAE test pilot, was able

to test F-35 landings at four headings,

each 90 deg. apart. He says the testing

validates that the aircraft can conduct

VLs at any heading on the ship. They were

conducted on spots in the aft portion of the

ship that have been treated with Thermion,

a new heat-resistant coating that includes

ceramic and steel. It is considered a vast

improvement over the anti-skid coating

used on decks and might be applied to

other F-35 ships, says Joe Spitz, lead tester

on deck for Naval Sea Systems Command.

Though both F-35 BF-1 and BF-5 were

unable to y owing to maintenance issues

during the 3 hr. reporters were on the Wasp

Aug. 28, Navy Capt. Erik Etz says the single-

engine, stealthy aircraft have achieved 90%

availability since ying started early last

month. BF-1, which was scheduled to conduct

a demonstration for the media event, was

down owing to a faulty cooling fan in the

nacelle; this was repaired and the aircraft

conducted test ights later that day.

Tap on the icon in the digital edition of AW&ST to watch clips of F-35B takeos and landings on the USS Wasp, or go to

AviationWeek.com/video

U.s. m

arine CorPs

Give Me The night

Up Front

commentary

As a prospective new entrant to the aviation industry, its hard to be better positioned than China. The country ofers the second big-gest national market in the world, one that is growing ever larger and more important and benefts from plenty of engineering talent. Its difcult to believe China will not eventually have some kind of large aerospace industry as long as it stays a national priority.The problem is that creating a large

commercial jet prime contractor is a dangerous way to start a new indus-try. There are many failed attempts at doing this, and only one new success-ful player in the past 50 years. And that one success, Embraer, illustrates the faws of Chinas current strategy. Embraers great strength has been the complete freedom accorded to its aircraft designers to source compo-nents. It shops globally, almost purely on the basis of best value for money. As a result, the company is not only one of Brazils biggest exporters; it is also one of the biggest importers.China has taken the opposite ap-

proach by mandating technology transfer and directing the countrys aircraft designers to only source equipment that Western companies are willing to transfer. Since there is no

The latest delays to the Comac C919 single-aisle jetliner, along with rumors that the jet is overweight and unlikely to meet already underwhelming performance goals, provide an oppor-

tunity for China to rethink its plans to develop a civil aviation

industry. Factor in the unannounced death of the long-delayed

ARJ21 regional jet (see photo), and it is pretty clear the country

faces a stark choice: Does it want to create a successful aviation

industry, or lose billions in the name of national pride?

Off Course Chinas aerospace strategy

squanders great promise

a prime-contractor role, as evidenced by the YS-11 turboprop transport or the F-2 fghter. The latest delay to the Mitsubishi Regional Jetwith service introduction now pushed back to 2017augurs nothing good.Mexico ofers an example of a

developing nation that appears to be succeeding in building an aerospace industry. For many years, its output was just a small fraction of Chinas. But the past few years have seen strong growth, in part because Mexico ofers strong IP protection for industry part-ners and has not diverted resources to a national airplane. Mexicos civil aviation exports to the U.S. reached parity with Chinas in 2008 and by last year, were nearly twice as large ($750 million in structures and parts, versus $390 million for China).Given Chinas great strength as

a new industry entrant, there is no reason why it should not be ahead. The only explanation is the countrys misplaced focus on replicating the same jet that many other OEMs have built for years. When assessing the best approach for Chinas aerospace future, it is important to remember that this global supply role almost always results in strong revenues and profts. It also produces a diversifed portfolio of work, rather than one or two risky projects. The U.K.s aero-space industry has been much more proftable and sustainable since the country built its last commercial jet, over a decade ago.Imagine, by contrast, Chinas avia-

tion future on its current path. The $1 billion spent on the ARJ21 has produced no income, and there are no guarantees that the billions of dol-lars spent on the C919 will produce any either, let alone profts. As many have posited, China could solve the problem in part by mandating that its national airlines buy locally built jets, something that Beijing has been intel-ligently reluctant to do. But forcing airlines to source equipment that is not best for their needs would only hobble another industry.If all of Chinas economy were run

this way, the countrys economic growth would likely hit a wall. This is no way for a country to join the devel-oped world. c

guarantee of intellectual property (IP) protection, there is no guarantee that Chinese aircraft are being designed with the latest and best components. An aircraft, of course, is just the sum of these parts. Sub-optimal sourcing, along with inexperience at program management and process implementa-tion, would help explain the ARJ21s complete failure and the C919s very troubled outlook.The alternative to creating a na-

tional jet prime is to build an industry from the ground up. This involves selectively deciding where to innovate and add value, creating a diversifed portfolio of work that contributes to the global supply chain. Japan has long provided the best

example of this approach. The coun-try has become the largest exporter of civil aviation structures and parts in the world. Intriguingly, Japans aero-space industry has only foundered in


By Richard Aboulafa

Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafa is Vice President of Analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

ReuteRs/Landov FiLe Photo

Commanders Intent

commentary

By Bill Sweetman

Read Sweetmans posts on our weblog ARES, updated daily:

AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

How well the SAP-518 works is hard to assess, but it looks very serious, with digital radio-frequency memory (DRFM) technolo-gy and phased-array anten-nas at the front and rear. A pair of SAP-518s can cause all kinds of confusion in a radar system, particularly a small-aperture, battery-powered one like that in the AIM-120 missile, upon which U.S. air dominance is almost entirely dependent. U.S. experience in active EW for

combat aircraft self-protection is patchy. U.S. Air Force F-16s have no in-ternal active EW, and the F-15 system is elderly. The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet has active EW via its towed decoy, in-stalled between and below the engines. (Afterburner plumes and fber-optic cables do not play nicely together.) The most advanced U.S. self-protect EW system is being funded by Saudi Arabia for the F-15SA. This has been policy, not an ac-

cident. In 1992, a senior engineer at Lockheed Sanders (now part of BAE Systems) declared that active jamming was unnecessary and undesirable for stealth aircraft and was accordingly going the way of the buggy whip in-dustry. I reminded Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) Director Arati Prabhakar about that quote a few months ago. And hows that worked out? she responded. One of the frst surprises in the

early stages of Darpas Air Dominance Initiative concerned EW. We knew it would play a big role but it came

Someone in the U.S. Navy intel shop might have had a nasty shock when photos showed up last October of a courtesy formation near Malaysia. Hanging of the wingtips of the Royal

Malaysian Air Forces Su-30MKMs (see photo) were Knirti

SAP-518 electronic warfare (EW) pods, previously seen only

on Russian Su-34 bombers.

Jammin The U.S. plays electronic warfare catch-up

across as vital, Prabhakar said. It was very interesting how far others had come along, around the world. Darpa is looking at fundamentally new designs to leapfrog what others are doing with globally available technol-ogy, she added.Unable to aford F-22s and B-2s, the

rest of the world has been making bet-ter buggy whips. The EW systems on the Rafale, Typhoon and Gripen led the way in the 1990s, using several mutu-ally supportive new technologies. Interferometric receivers could

locate hostile emitters within one degree, not 10 or more. This made it practical to use narrow-beam, phased-array transmitters. Together, they could put a lot of energy on the target without wasting power on empty air. The B-1 used phased-array anten-

nas in the 1970s, but the somewhat-stealthy bomber tended to act like a ninja sufering from Tourettesblast-ing out jamming signals that betrayed its presencebecause the available processors could not adequately control them. By the 1990s, the plum-meting cost, volume, power require-ments and weight of processors made it possible to envision a fghter-sized,

automated system that would work. DRFM added to those capabilities. A DRFM module receives an incom-

ing RF signal, converts it to digital from analog, stores it and plays it back, with latency in tens of nanoseconds. At the same time, it can add the distor-tions that EW systems have always used; the return from the target will look like a perfect echo, and the range and velocity data will be convincing but fake. Many DRFM performance param-

eters have improved by a factor of fve or more in the last decade, allowing the memory to defeat many electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM) technologies. DRFM technology can mimic the harmonics introduced into the radar signal by an engines compressor face, negating a long-established way of identifying hostile targets. Its no coincidence that a number of fghter upgrade programs, including those for the Rafale and F-22, have been changed to give more prior-ity to ECCM. This would be enough of a problem

even without what you carry in your pocket. High-performance RF circuitry is not exotic. Its a consumer product. Think where it is made. This trend is one big reason why the

U.S. Navywhich seems to be get-ting aboard this particular clue train faster than the Air Forceis starting not only to think about an RF-denied environment but also act as though it is a serious possibility. The frst step in this process is to

start integrating an infrared search-and-track (IRST) system on the Super Hornet. We have reported (AW&ST Aug. 26, p. 20) that the Navy has tested a way to target ships, passively using the EA-18G Growler, and that Boe-ing and the service are considering adding IRST to the system for an air-to-air test next year. Also underway is an AIM-120-range infrared-homing AIM-9X Block III. With luck, these things (and anything out of Darpas work) will arrive in time to avoid a capability shock. Bob Marley didnt agree with those

who thought that jammin was a thing of the past. It looks as if he was right, and that its part of a challenging future. c

aviationWeek.com/awst AviAtionWeek&SpAcetechnology/September2,2013 13

U.S. Navy Lt. Cmdr. JUStiN HaLLigaN

Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey

commentary

Business & Commercial

Aviation Editor-in-Chief William Garvey blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

Since only 69 of the big Hawkers were built before its manufacturer halted production and went through a bankruptcy that included cancelling their owners warranties, Talon Airs feet is by far the largest. And it is delighted with that distinction.The 4000s are efcient, fast and

comfortable planes, says Paul St. Lucia, director of sales and marketing for the Farmingdale, N.Y., operator. Theyre easy to sell. And thanks to the models fat foor, straight vertical side-walls, transatlantic and transcontinen-tal U.S. range, good feld performance and double club, Wi-Fi-equipped cabins (see photo at left above), People do not mind paying a premium. Indeed, he says charter rates for the Hawkers are on parity with its Challenger 300, which puts them at the higher end of the super-midsize pricing spectrum. We get top dollar.All of Talon Airs 4000s have under-

gone the block upgrade program.While he declined to provide a range

of prices paid for the aircraftTalon Air owns two 4000s outright and oper-ates the rest for their respective own-ersit is an open secret that Hawker Beech sold for them for well below their $23 million list price, and unloaded its

Unloved and abandoned by its creator, the outcast Hawker 4000 (see photo at right below) is being embraced as a valued member by at least one adoptive family. Talon Air, an

aircraft management and charter operator, now has nine of the

super-midsize twins on its FAR135 certifcate.

Orphan AscendantA lot of airplane for the money

remaining inventory early this year at even deeper discounts. Aircraft Bluebook reports average retail prices for Hawker 4000s from $6 million for a 2008 model to $9 million for those built in 2012, its last production year.Part of the reason for those de-

pressed prices is the question of parts availability and pricing, along with the maintainability of an orphaned feet. However, St. Lucia quickly dismisses such concerns, saying availability has not been a problem. Parts may be a little more expensive, and there might be a little more down time, he says, but everybody is happy. Moreover, Talon Air is a FAR145

service center whose technicians are well-involved in the upkeep of the Hawker 4000s and probably the most well-versed maintenance staf to keep them up and running. Unmentioned was the fact that Beechcraft is evalu-ating proposals for taking over the models type certifcate, tooling and spares.Were in a very good position, St.

Lucia asserts, the best any Hawker 4000 owner can be in.And to underscore that view, he says

Talon Air plans to add another three Hawker 4000s by year-end. c

membership airline

Birthplace of the iPhone, e-ticket and McDonalds, California has an-other frst: a fy-all-you-want member-ship airline. Following a tsunami of pre-launch publicity, Surf Air began operations in June.Founded by brothers Wade (see

photo) and David Eyerly, the atypical airline sells memberships for $500 and then charges each cardholder $1,650 a month. For that investment, members can ride Surf Airs three Pilatus PC-12s as often as they would like on the opera-tions 16 daily fights linking Burbank, San Carlos near Palo Alto and Santa Barbara. A fourth, yet unnamed, desti-nation is to be revealed this week.CEO Wade Eyerly (his brother now

fies the line, his intention all along) says Surf Air signed 150 members in June, 100 more in July and anticipated that to repeat in August. The service operates out of Atlantic

Aviation bases in Burbank and Santa Barbara and the municipal terminal in San Carlos. Since the eight-passenger aircraftall purchased from fractional operator PlaneSenseweigh less than 12,500 lb., no TSA security check is re-quired. Passengers move from terminal

entrance to air-craft in a matter of seconds, as a result. The airline,

which operates under FAR135 commuter authority, has 68 employees, including 25 pilots, and plans to expand steadily, within

California frst, and beyond, once the Transportation Department awards it interstate authority.The decidedly unorthodox airline in

a way refects its 34-year-old leaders credentials, which include working in Dick Cheneys vice presidential press ofce, serving as a Defense Department intelligence operative in Iraq, and for the National Security Agency. While mum about his intel work, he

is quite candid about his role relative to his brothers. Oh, you dont want me in the cockpit, he says. I have ADD. c

Beechcraft corp. photos


surf air

For further information, please visit:platts.com/ElectricPower/Resources/News Features/emission/index.xml

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Daily Emissions Price AssessmentsMay August 2013 EUA, CER Prices

5/1

5/9

5/16

5/23

5/31 6/7

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PD = Price Differential, euros per metric ton

EUA = European Union Emissions Allowances for December 2013 delivery

CER = U.N. Certifed Emission Reductions for December 2013 delivery

Source: Platts

EUA PD CEREuropean Union carbon dioxide allowance (EUA) prices under the EU Emissions Trading System made modest gains in August, trading in low volumes as expected during the summer lull.December 2013 EUAs averaged 4.42 per metric ton Aug.

1-27, up from 4.24 in July, according to Platts daily closing assessments.The market this year has been increasingly driven by EU

policy, as lawmakers grapple with European Commission proposals to withhold short-term primary supply in a bid to support the price.With Brussels on holiday, the market lacked key policy-driv-

en headlines in August, and technical trading came to the fore.Prices rose to 4.53 on Aug. 22, a climb which appeared to

be driven by a short-covering rally as speculators scrambled to cover those positions.The slight overall gains in August also refected increased

bidding interest in primary auctions, which ofered a lower-than-usual total of just 33.6 million tons of spot EUAs in the month, compared with a year-to-date average of 70 million tons per month.The average bid-to-cover ratio seen at EU, U.K. and German

carbon auctions rose to 4.68 in August, up from 3.2 in July, and a year-to-date average of 3.0, according to exchange data compiled by Platts.December 2013 EUA prices eased back slightly to 4.45 at

the close on Aug. 23, according to Platts assessments.Traders continue to await the results of German elections

expected on Sept. 22, which may provide more clarity on the countrys position on the ECs backloading proposal.

The European Parliament on July 3 backed the ECs pro-posal to backload up to 900 million EUAs from auctions in 2013-15returning them to market later in Phase 3. The proposal is now expected to go for assessment by the EU Council.Germanys position is likely to be key, as other non-decided

EU member states may take a lead from Europes industrial powerhouse.U.K. energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey on

July 15 said the country is working to gain enough support in the EU Council for the backloading plan to pass. c

Frank Watson/Platts/London

Demand for Chinese domestic air travel is looking sickly. China South-ern Airlines, reporting a surprisingly large 10% drop in passenger yield for the frst half of 2013, complains that competition has become all the more ferce because of slowing demand, rapidly increasing capacity of the airline industry and expansion of the national high-speed rail network.One factor that China Southern

does not mention is one that would oc-cur to almost any air passenger in the country: the increasing unreliability of Chinese air services, encouraging travelers to look for alternative means of transportation, or deterring them from leaving town at all. An explosion of media coverage of this issue over the past few months does not augur well for future demand.China Southern is the most domesti-

cally focused of the three big Chinese carriers. The most internationally

oriented, Air China, reports a 15% de-crease in domestic yields for the same period, even as pricing for its services to other countries held steady.The economy has probably slowed

faster than the airlines expected when they placed their aircraft orders, says ICF SH&E analyst Guo Yufeng. For this year, he suspects, the airlines set their capacity on the basis of central government forecasts for economic growth that turned out to be opti-mistic. The main Chinese airlines are controlled by the central government, giving them an incentive to follow of-fcial guidance.Gross domestic product grew 7.5%

between the second quarters of 2012 and 2013, well below the rates of 10-11% commonly seen until a few years agoand more or less permanently so, in the opinion of most economists. In-deed, China Southerns fgures, if taken as an economic indicator, suggest the

countrys business environment may be weaker than generally thought. China Southern carried 6.5% more

passengers in the frst half of this year than it did a year earlier. For an econ-omy at Chinas stage of development, with average income of only about $6,000 per person, air trafc should be rising somewhat faster than GDP.The economy may not be the only

factor, however. The quality of Chinese air services has been declining because carriers have been increasingly inca-pable of making their fights leave on time. An international survey conduct-ed by fight data provider FlightStats fnds that Beijing Capital and Shanghai Pudong airports have the worlds least punctual services. The air forces re-strictive control of airspace is usually blamed, although the military recently seems to have tried to assign fault to shoddy airline management (AW&ST Aug. 5, p. 36). c

commentary

Not Too Healthy

Quiet Trading in EUAs

Airline Intel

aviationWeek.com/awst AviAtionWeek&SpAcetechnology/September2,2013 15

By Bradley Perrett

Asia-Pacifc Bureau Chief Bradley Perrett blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings

[email protected]

In Orbit

commentary

By Frank Morring, Jr.

Senior Editor Frank Morring, Jr., blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/onspace

[email protected]

There is the old saying that a picture is worth a thousand words, says Rex Ridenoure, a founder of RocketCambuilder Ecliptic. We would argue that a video is worth a million words. Theres so much you can see in a typical video feed that you just cant see in still images, especially in basic telemetry. Thats in nuts and bolts what were selling.Sales have been pretty good in the 12

years since the company started, and Ridenoure and his colleagues expect it to remain that way as spacecraft operators fnd new uses for onthescene moving pictures. This 2008 sequence from a RocketCam video of a 12meter (39ft.) antenna unfurling on the Space Systems/Loral ICO G1 satellite is a good example (see photos). It allowed SS/L engineers to see exactly how the deployment went and confrm that the antenna remained stable.With robotic satellite servicing on

the horizon, Ecliptic already has supplied the cameras for the Robotic Refueling Mission testbed on the International Space Station (ISS) that NASA is using to check out satelliteservicing techniques (AW&ST July 29, p. 38). But for that application, Goddard Space Flight Center engineers took on most

Many of us have enjoyed spectacular video of rocket launches from the rockets point of view, with the launch pad receding rapidly and strapon boosters falling away as the black sky of

space shows up around Earths curve. The RocketCam videos

are a staple on YouTube, but they have a value that far exceeds

entertainment. In the highstakes spacefight business, video

shots of rockets and other space hardware in action give engi

neers a much better view of system performance than even the

most detailed numeric telemetry.

Take a LookEcliptic targets proximity operations

of the job Ecliptic normally does for its customers.For any of this stuf to work you

need a system, says Ridenoure. Its not a camera. You need a system that can handle what the camera does, so its really an avionics and software and telecom kind of a problem. Thats what we spend 90 percent of our time on, and thats where 90 percent of our revenue comes from.Ecliptic expects future commercial

spacecraftservicing outfts to be good customers of their whole systems, as well as at least some of the commercial companies providing transport and logistics to the ISS. The company will provide context video for the upcoming frst fight of Orbital Sciences Corp.s Cygnus vehicle to the station, keeping an electronic eye on the station as Cygnus fies close enough to be grappled by the main robotic arm.Like many small aerospace compa

nies, Ecliptic has a mottled history. Ridenoure and the rest of the companys frst engineers came from a dotcom startup called Blastof that failed when the dotcom bubble burst. Blastof planned to put a robotic lander on the Moon and sell the data it generated, most of which would have been video.

That was going to be streamed back to the Internet and turned into money, Ridenoure says. Instead, he and some of his laidof colleagues located a billionaire backer and founded Ecliptic, with an eye to developing a productoriented space business drawing on their experience engineering the commercial Moon lander. In a lucky break, they were able to buy the RocketCam name and intellectual property from a Colorado company, Crosslink Inc., that was moving in a diferent direction.Since then, Ecliptic has had 313

contracts with 78 customers, including 11 new clients since 2011. Counting the 14 RocketCam missions under Crosslink, the technology has fown rockets to low Earth orbit (LEO) 79 times, plus 22 suborbital rocket fights and nine spacecraft missions in LEO, geostationary and lunar orbit.The lunar mission few on NASAs

twin Grail lunargravity mappers as a piggyback organized by the late Sally Rides educational organization. Ecliptic sold its system to Sally Ride Science, which mounted fxed camera arrays on both spacecraft and allowed middle school students around the country to select targets on the lunar surface (AW&ST Jan. 9, 2012, p. 16).NASA also came calling after the

Columbia accident, when investigators realized there was a dearth of video that might hold clues to what went wrong. Ecliptic video systems were standard equipment on all subsequent space shuttle missions, and on the frst of them it caught a large piece of insulating foam falling of the external tank despite a major engineering efort to prevent a recurrence of the event that fatally shattered the heat shielding on Columbias left wing.That sort of phenomenology is a

target for RocketCam video, along with mechanical actions and proximity operations. And early on, Ecliptic digitized the analog signal generated by the system it bought from Crosslink, pointing the way to a fourth source of businesscontrolling sensors in addition to its camera. Ecliptics avionics controlled all of the sensors on the Lcross lunarimpact mission, and Ridenoure is looking for more. c

Ecliptic


Washington Outlook

Many ironies are at play in the debate here over potential U.S. military strikes in Syria, chief among them Republican infghting and assertions of congressional prerogatives in war-

making, as well as an anti-Iraq War president leading the charge

based on intelligence of weapons of mass destruction. But in a

more subtle albeit signifcant twist, the greatest irony inside the

Beltway may be the efect of Syrian strikes on national security

budgets. There will be winners and losers, for sure, but dont

place your bets too fast.For instance, it is not that the amount

of weapons and munitions expended would cause a bump up in defense spending. Like with Libyan operations in 2011, any U.S. strikes in response to the Assad regimes purported use of chemical weapons against its people are expected to be limited, led by Toma-hawk Land-attack Missiles (TLAMs), and the Defense Department can ab-sorb them under current and planned inventories. Later restocking would be nearly imperceptible to an industry used to more than a half-trillion dollars in annual spending.From a hard-nosed revenue and

proft perspective, we see minimal impact on most U.S. or EU defense companies, say RBC Capital Markets analysts.We estimate that expenditure and

replacement of 200-300 TLAMs would be immaterial to Raytheon in 2014-15 and potentially total 0.4%-0.8% of new sales in over a two-year period, echoes Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan. That presumes [the Penta-gon] replaces TLAMs used in a Syrian strike.Rather, the long-term budget-

ary impact of strikes will be the fact thatSyriaplus recent U.S. embassy closings due to al Qaeda-based threats, Egypts ongoing turmoil, recent U.S. moves to bolster Jordans defense and the memory of Libyais playing out as Washington fnally begins to seri-ously mull the makeup of the military

in the next few decades. As noted on this page since summer began in the Northern Hemisphere, defense ofcials are talking up their options for remak-ing the armed forces and defense agen-cies under the full limits of the 2011 Budget Control Act and its threats of annual sequestrations unless Congress mandates otherwise. Two main choices have emergeddescribed as capacity (size) versus capability (technology)and at some point Washington will have to favor one over the other.As the vice chairman of the Joint

Chiefs of Staf let it be known in late

July when the choices were publicly outlined, assuming the budget law isnt amended in their favor, then the Pentagon wants to focus on capability, making sure U.S. forces always have an unfair edge over an adversarys weapons. The key sacrifce is that it means not having enough forces to deploy worldwide at a moments notice for contingencies like Syria or Libya, because force size would be the bill payer, and especially as the U.S. pivots to the Asia-Pacifc. Also, there is the fact that most contingencies do not rise to the level of near-peer war. F-35s, new bombers and other high-end military equipment for fghting advanced conventional conficts would be irrelevant to a response to another al Qaeda attack, Callan notes. To be sure, no U.S. politician will

ever declare a fnal decision publicly; the optics would be bad. But there will be road signs indicating what path Washington is taking, and budget fghts over the next six months will provide many. c

NASAS NebuloSity

NASA supporters may hate the restraints of the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) and annual sequestrations brought in part by tea party demands for lower federal spending, defcits and debt, but with the law looking increas-ingly likely to stay, space boosters might want to pay more attention to the Houses related spending and NASA authorization bills this year. That is because when it comes to the nations space and aeronautics agency, Republicans who control the House at least have outlined priorities and bill payers, unlike in the Democratic-run Senate, and that puts them ahead this year in lawmaking. The Senate authorizers have marginalized them-selves . . . the House authorizers and appropriators will be together because they have discussed where their priori-ties are, claims Scott Pace, a former NASA associate administrator and White House Science and Technol-ogy Policy ofcial in the George W. Bush administration. Still, Pace, now a professor at George Washington University, did not necessarily endorse House decisions in a teleconference with reporters last week. c

Syria and SequestrationForget the demand for weapons,

think of the demand for U.S. forces

commeNtAry

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtionWeek&SpAcetechnology/September9,2013 17

By Michael Bruno

Senior Policy Editor Michael Bruno blogs at:AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

U.S. Navy

on most U.S. or EU

defense companies.Financial analysts on Syria

We see minimal impact


The sobering images of wreckage foating in the waters of

the Shetland Islands are a stark reminder of the dangers

faced by ofshore oil workers traveling by helicopter.

But the deaths of four workers following the crash of a CHC Scotia-operated Eurocopter AS332L2 Super Puma on Aug. 23 have sparked an un-precedented public outcry that could end up having a dramatic effect on both the oil and gas industry and the helicopter operators that support it.While the fight suspension for the

AS332L2 model and other variants of the Super Puma has now been lifted, almost 40,000 people have given their

support to a social media campaign dubbed Destroy the Super Pumas set up within hours of the tragedy, call-ing for the removal of the aircraft and its variants from operational service in the North Sea.The Facebook page says oil workers

are fearful of fying in the type after the ffth accident involving the helicopter in four years. Two of those accidents have claimed a total of 20 lives. Oil executives are concerned that if

Tony Osborne London

Damaged ConfdenceSocial media campaign against Super Pumas

could have impacts beyond the North Sea

SAfety

the campaign gains traction, the move could result in widespread disruption of oil production in the North Sea, as well as the industries that support it.In line with a request from the Heli-

copter Safety Steering Group (HSSG)a committee formed in response to previous North Sea helicopter acci-dentsCHC, Bond Ofshore Helicop-ters and the Bristow Group halted op-erations with the Eurocopter AS322L2 and other Super Puma variants in the U.K., including the older AS332L/L1 models and the more modern EC225, within hours of the accident.The EC225 had been just returning

Nov. 6, 1986: A British International Helicopters

(BIH) Boeing 234 Chinook (G-BWFC) crashed

on approach to Sumburgh, Shetland Islands,

while returning workers from the Brent Field.

The aircraft suffered a transmission failure in

the forward mast which desynchronized the ro-

tor system, killing all 45 onboard. The accident

remains the worst North Sea helicopter crash

in history.

July 13, 1988: A BHI-operated Sikorsky S-61N

(G-BEID) ditched into the sea 29 nm northeast

of Sumburgh following an engine fre. There were

no fatalities among the 21 passengers and crew.

Nov. 10, 1988: A BHI-operated S-61N (G-BDES)

crashed 2 nm east of the Claymore platform after

a loss of oil pressure in the main gearbox. The

aircraft was ditched into rough seas, and all 13

passengers were rescued.

July 25, 1990: A BHI-operated S-61N (G-BEWL)

Norway, to the Norne oilfield suffered a cata-

strophic main gearbox failure and crashed, kill-

ing all 12 aboard.

July 16, 2002: A Bristow-operated Sikorsky

S-76A+(G-BJVX) crashed near the Leman Foxtrot

Platform in the North Sea after a blade previously

struck by lightning disintegrated in fight, sending

the aircraft crashing into the water. There were

no survivors among the nine passengers and two

crew.

Feb. 18, 2009: A Bond Offshore-operated Eu-

rocopter EC225 (G-REDU) struck the surface of

the North Sea 500 meters (1,650 ft.) from the

planned landing point on the ETAP production

platform in the North Sea. All 18 passengers and

crew onboard were rescued.

April 1, 2009: A Bond Offshore-operated

AS332L2 (G-REDL) suffered a catastrophic failure

of the main gearbox 11 nm northeast of Peter-

head, Scotland, and crashed into the sea. There

were no survivors among the 14 passengers and

two crew.

MAy 10, 2012: A Bond Offshore-operated EC225

(G-REDW) ditched into the North Sea 20 nm east

of Aberdeen, Scotland, following the failure of the

bevel gear vertical shaft in the main gearbox. All

14 passengers and crew escaped unhurt.

oct. 22, 2012: A CHC-operated EC225 (G-CHCN)

ditched 32 nm southeast of Sumburgh following

was heading toward the Brent Spar platform but

as it approached, the tail struck a crane and

crashed onto the helideck. Before passengers

could escape, the aircraft fell over the edge of

the deck, into the sea. Four passengers and two

crew died, while the seven others escaped.

MArch 14, 1992: A Bristow-operated Aerospa-

tiale AS332L Tiger Super Puma (G-TIGH) lost

control in poor weather while shuttling personnel

from an oil platform to a foating support vessel.

The aircraft crashed into the North Sea near East

Shetland Basin with the loss of 11 of the 17 pas-

sengers and crew onboard.

JAN. 19, 1995: A Bristow-operated AS332L

(G-TIGK) ditched into the North Sea, suffering a

loss of tail rotor control after being struck by light-

ning. All passengers and crew escaped unhurt.

Sept. 8, 1997: A Norwegian Helikopter Service-

operated AS332L1 (LN-OPG) from Bronnoysund,

The North Sea oil industry pioneered the concept of oil and gas sup-

port operations. Companies such as Bristow introduced new aircraft

and technologies into ofshore fight operations, but the evolution has

been painful, with North Sea accidents accounting for the loss of more

than 90 passengers and crewmembers since the worst one in November

1986. This table shows accidents and incidents that resulted in the loss

of an aircraft, lives or both.

Painful History


to service after a nine-month halt from fight operations over water following problems with the bevel gear vertical shaft in the main gearbox. The fight suspension on all four ro-

torcraft variants was eventually lifted Aug. 29 following a two-day meeting of the HSSG. However, the group says that, given the sensitivities around the accident, the AS332L2 should only ini-tially return to non-revenue operations such as training.The HSSG says it is satisfed that

there is no reason to believe there is an inherent mechanical problem with any of the AS332L/L1, AS332L2 or EC225 helicopter types. CHC, which returned AS332L2s to operations out-side the U.K. Aug 29, says: From what we know so far about the Sumburgh incident, as well as tens of thousands of hours of experience with this aircraft, it is apparent there is not a fundamental problem with AS332L2 aircraft that led to this accident.But workers unions remain dissatis-

fed, saying that workforce confdence in the Super Puma type aircraft was severely dented after the two ditching events of last year and the fatal accident in 2009. They urge that the helicopters not restart operations until the cause of the Aug. 23 accident is found.Operators and the British Airline

Pilots Association (Balpa) have reaf-frmed their confdence in the rotor-craft, urging oil workers not to judge it or draw early conclusions about the

the failure of the bevel gear vertical shaft in the

main gearbox. All 19 passengers and crew es-

caped unhurt. This incident and that of G-REDW

resulted in the grounding of the EC225 from over-

water operations for nine months.

Poor weather hampered search-and-rescue eforts in the waters of Sumburgh Airport in Shetland, Scotland, following the Aug. 23 crash of an AS322L2 operated by CHC Scotia.

Tony osborne/AW&sT

accident, since investiga-tors have not yet reported the cause. Twelve passengers and the

two pilots managed to escape from the Super Puma within minutes after it ditched into

the misty waters of Fitful Head at the southern tip of the Shetland Islands. The helicopter, registered as G-WNSB, was just minutes from landing at Sum-burgh Airport after flying from the drilling platform Borgsten Dolphin on behalf of the oil frm Total when it ap-parently sufered a catastrophic loss of power, sending it tumbling into the sea.Investigators say the approach to

Sumburgh appeared normal until 3 mi. out, when the airspeed decreased and the helicopter descended rapidly. They believe the rotorcraft landed intact and upright, but rolled over in the water and was broken up by repeated contact with the rocky shoreline.Within hours, emergency services

recovered three bodies; a fourth was reportedly found still trapped within the helicopters cabin. The wreckage of the rotorcraft has since been salvaged and brought aboard an oil and gas sup-port ship, Bibby Polaris. The fight data recorder was found on Aug. 29.Since the accident, Total has report-

edly chartered several ships to conduct platform-crew change operations with the expectation that some workers will

CHC Scotia operates Eurocopter AS332L2s alongside EC225s and Sikorsky S-92s in Aberdeen.

(G-WNSB) experienced a sudden loss of power

and ditched into the North Sea 2 nm west of

Sumburgh Airport. The cause is as yet unknown.

Four passengers were killed. However, both crew-

members and 12 passengers were rescued.

Source: U.K. Air Accident Investigation Branch/

Norwegian Aviation Authority

royAl n

ATionAl lifeb

oAT in

sTiTuTio

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Aug. 23, 2013: A CHC-operated AS332L2


Guy Norris Los Angeles

Frozen FoeInternational research plan defned for icing

study as Boeing and GE test countermeasures

Cruising in darkness at 41,000 ft., on July 31 near Chengdu, China, the crew of an AirBridge Cargo

Boeing 747-8F were beginning to pre-pare for the descent into Hong Kong when they deviated to avoid a thunder-storm clearly depicted on the weather radar.Even if they had been able to visu-

ally check their surroundings, they would not have noticed anything un-usual about the area they penetrated in the outfow region of the anvil cloud trailing the relatively distant storm. There was no sign of airframe icing, nor any echoes from the radar.Yet the cloud was full of undetect-

able ice crystals thatwithin minutes of the encountercaused significant damage to three of the aircrafts four engines, one of which lost thrust while another surged. The AirBridge Cargo (ABC) crew had unwittingly come face-to-face with core engine icing, a poorly understood phenomenon that has been striking a wide variety of aircraft and engines on a growing scale since the 1990s. As well as surges and mechanical problems, the previously unrecognized form of icing inside engines causes thrust loss, or power roll-backs, with virtually no warning.According to Russian federal air

transport authority Rosaviatsia, chief investigators of the 747-8F event, the crew saw at least one typical clue to the phenomenon. Entering the area of ice crystals, the total air tempera-ture (TAT) rose by 20C to -34C for 86 sec. The crew reacted by switching the engine ice-protection system from automatic to manual for about 10 min. But approximately 22 min. after fying

through the warmer sector, the aircrafts No. 2 (inboard left) engine surged and automatically restarted. The No. 1 en-gine then experienced a speed reduction of 70% of N1 (low-pressure rotor speed). After landing at Hong Kong, inspections revealed damage to the high-pressure compressor blades of the Nos. 1 and 2 engines, as well as to the No. 4. Within weeks of the latest event,

Boeing and General Electric flight tested an engine software upgrade specifically designed to counter the ice-crystal buildup. GE says the soft-ware changes to the GEnx-2B full-authority digital engine-control unit will help the engine itself detect the presence of ice crystals when the air-craft is flying through a convective weather system. If detected, the new algorithms will schedule variable bleed valves to open and eject ice crystals that may have built up in the area aft of the fan, or in the fowpath to the core. The modifcation to the GEnx control logic leverages similar changes made to improve the ability of the CF6 to op-erate in similar icing conditions. The AirBridge Cargo event is the lat-

est in a growing number of engine-icing incidents, which have triggered recent changes in international certifcation requirements. Unlike traditional en-gine icing, in which supercooled liquid droplets freeze on impact with exposed outer parts of the engine as the aircraft flies through clouds, engine core ice accretion involves a complex process

SAfety

The most recent engine core icing event hit an AirBridge Cargo-oper-ated Boeing 747-8F en route from Moscow to Hong Kong on July 31.

boeing

refuse to fy to platforms on any model of helicopter. Other companies extended staf rotation periods on platforms and reduced manning to minimum levels. Of the 16,000 people ofshore at any one time, some 12,000 were afected by the disruption caused by the suspension. Using ships is not a long-term solu-

tion: While helicopter transfer missions take just a couple of hours, ship trans-fers can take up to 10 times as long, and transiting passengers from vessel to platform presents its own dangers.Some in the support-helicopter

industry believe the HSSG may well have been backed into a corner by the workers unions. By calling for the grounding of all Super Puma variants, the HSSG inadvertently associated the crashed AS332L2 model with the EC225, even though the two types are distinctly diferent in terms of operation and engineering. The EC225 was only grounded after investigators linked the two incidents in May and October 2012, neither of which resulted in any fatali-ties (AW&ST July 22, p. 51). Only a handful of the EC225s operat-

ing from Aberdeenthe main base of the North Sea helicopter companieshave returned to operations since in-terim fxes were certifed in July. Some of the larger oil companies have been consulting with the operators to ensure they have the capabilities to conduct the interim procedures mandated by regulators for potentially up to two years, as Eurocopter works on a per-manent fx to the issue. There is a need to arm workers with

the facts about these aircraft, says one helicopter operator executive. But not all the oil companies realize this.Oil companies and the helicopter

operators fear a ripple efect not just across the North Sea, but in other ar-eas of the world where helicopters are relied on for crew-change missions. Eurocopter, which in the days after the accident sent top executives including new CEO Guillaume Faury to Aber-deen, has been quick to point out that the AS332L2 involved in the accident was equipped with a main gearbox with a carburized vertical shaft, not a nitrided (hardened) shaft, like the one involved in the two EC225 ditchings. Operators, trade unions and regu-

lators will engage with the offshore workforce to rebuild trust and conf-dence, and a sympathetic approach will be taken with any worker who feels unable to fy, the HSSG says. c


Graham Warwick Los Angeles and Washington

Sharper VisionNASA focuses on six thrustsfrom autonomy to

supersonicsin pursuit of leaps in aeronautics

As NASA refocuses its aeronau-tics research on key challenges facing aviation, its inspiration

is coming from two non-aerospace entitiesEastman Kodak and Otis Elevator.Together their divergent stories

convinced the agencys associate ad-ministrator for aeronautics, Jaiwon Shin, that NASA needed a vision to en-sure its aviation research continues to lead the worldand beneft industry. The new strategy aligns aeronautics

research with six thrusts shaped to help industry respond to three global megadrivers: growing demand for mobility; severe challenges to sustain-ability; and technology developments in information, communication and automation. It is a vision intended to avoid the complacency that doomed Kodak and to tap the creative think-ing that transformed Otis.Kodak dominated the photograph-

ic market into the 1990s, but resisted moving to digital imaging because it threatened its film business. Now the 121-year-old company is about to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection a shadow of its former self.Otis, meanwhile, saw its share of the

global market squeezed by low-cost competitors, but responded in 2000 by launching the Gen2 machine-roomless elevator, which is now the 160-year-old companys fastest seller. To Shin, the story of one company is

a lesson for NASA and the U.S. avia-tion industry, while the other could be a model. In 1991, Kodak dominated the global market for flm, and was wiped out by digital imaging. They had the money and the talent to compete, but failed miserably, he says. Otis is the complete opposite. They gave a multi-disciplinary team the most compelling problem statement in the businessget rid of the machine room at the top of the elevator. They broke more than 100 years of tradition in elevator design.Shin likens the U.S. civil-aviation

industry to Kodak at its peak, blessed

where ice particles stick to a warm metal surface. These act as a heat sink until the metal surface temperature drops below freezing, thereby forming a location for ice and water (mixed-phase) accretion. The accumulated ice can either block fow into the core or shed into the downstream compressor stages and combustor, causing a surge, roll-back or other malfunction.Until relatively recently, it was as-

sumed that ice particles would bounce off structures and pass harmlessly through bypass ducts, or melt inside the engine. Now, there is evidence of an environment where a certain com-bination of water, ice and airflow is susceptible to accreting ice. Like many of the other known core icing events, the ABC 747-8F incident occurred near convective clouds. When incidents were frst reported, investigators ini-tially assumed supercooled liquid water, hail or rain were responsible because they had been lifted to high altitudes by updrafts. Yet most events have been recorded above 22,000 ft., which is considered the upper limit for clouds containing supercooled liquid water.According to investigators study-

ing fight data recorders and crew ob-servations from previous engine-loss events, all took place at high altitudes and cold temperatures. Incidents struck regional jet aircraft at median altitudes and temperatures of 29,000 ft. and -32C, while for larger jet trans-ports, medians for most events were at altitudes and temperatures of around 26,000 ft. and -21C. All events occurred near convective clouds and/or thun-derstorms, in air signifcantly warmer than the standard atmosphere and in clouds or visible moisture. Common to all were anomalous TAT readings with no signifcant airframe icing and no weather radar returns.To fnd out exactly what is happen-

ing inside the convective systems that most frequently cause core icing, par-ticularly in mid-latitude and tropical regions, an international team plans to conduct the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) test campaign in Darwin, Aus-tralia. The team includes NASA, FAA, Environment Canada, Transport Can-ada, Airbus, Boeing, the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Australian Bureau of Meteorol-ogy. Also joining the efort will be the European Unions High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) project, which will

be contributing a specially confgured Falcon 20 research aircraft. The European efort also builds on

the European Aviation Safety Agencys (EASA) High Ice Water Content pro-gram, which itself used data collected on a series of fight-test campaigns con-ducted by Airbus in 2010 in the wake of t

aviation week

Documents

bill sweetman chief

anselmoexecutive editor

bureau chief james

lee ann tegtmeier chief

chief joseph

overhaul editors jens

michael bruno

michael fabey