2

3

5

1

2

3

4

5

1 23

4

5

6

7

8

9

Subsidence: 1906-1978 Contour Interval:

1 ft

HGCSD 1992 Regulatory Plan Map

1

3 2

4 5

6

7

Area 1: 10% groundwaterArea 2: 20% groundwater Area 3: 80% GW reduction by 1995Area 4: 80% GW reduction by 2002Area 5: 80% GW reduction by 2005Area 6: 80% GW reduction by 2010Area 7: 80% GW reduction by 2020

HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan Map

1

3

2

Key Elements - 1999 Regulatory Plan

Regulatory Areas & Conversion Requirements

Areas 1 & 2 - Converted Area 1 GW reduced to 10% or less of TWD Area 2 GW reduced to 20% or less of TWD

Area 3 Reduce GW pumpage by 30% by 2010 Reduce GW pumpage by 70% by 2020 Reduce GW pumpage by 80% by 2030

Exemptions: Agricultural Irrigation & Economic Hardships

GRPs were due in 2003: 4 main Area 3 GRPS (Houston, NHCRWA, WHCRWA & CHCRWA)

Disincentive Fee currently set at $5.00 / 1,000 gallons

1

3

2

Major Area 3 Groundwater Reduction Plans (GRPs)Regional Water Authorities and City of Houston

North

West

Houston

Central

Regional Groundwater Update

• Updates population and water demand projections

• Recalibrates the parameters of the groundwater and subsidence models

• HGSD/FBSD: Updated data and models to evaluate the 1999 & 2003 Regulatory Plans and make any necessary changes to the regulations for the upcoming decades

Regional Groundwater Update

• Study Area: Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Montgomery, and Brazoria Counties

• 5.8 million people in 2010 – nearly 25% of the State’s population

• Science and data to evaluate and potentially revise Regulatory Plans

• Regulations in study area drive the region’s water supply strategies

Diverse Technical Team

Key Stakeholders

North Channel Water Authority

Central Harris County Regional Water Authority

Reg Plan Update Project Components

Population and Water Demand Projections

Groundwater Model Update

Subsidence Model Update

Regulatory Scenarios and Plan Update

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT

TWDB & REGION H COORDINATION

Regional Groundwater Update

• TWDB Coordination

– Project Participants and Team have met on multiple occasions with TWDB Planning Division and Groundwater Division Staff

– Team provides updates and presents technical data

– TWDB has provided valuable data and feedback

Regional Groundwater Update

• TWDB Coordination: Region H / GMA 14

– Project’s County Population Projections to be used in Region H

– Region H Water User Group (WUG) populations will be based on Project’s data

– Project’s new Houston Area Groundwater Model (HAGM) to become regional model for Region H and Groundwater Management Area 14 (GMA 14)

• Metrostudy– Short term: 2010 – 2020 annual increments– Quarterly housing surveys– Knowledge of future housing development– Considers regional economic outlook, quality of

schools, current and future transportation planning, etc.

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

15

• University of Houston Center for Public Policy– Long term: 2030 – 2070 decadal

– Models historical patterns in job creation and employment sub-centers statistically

– Projects population based on long term forecast of economic growth and number and location of future jobs

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

16

• Tract Level Projections– 1,039 tracts in 5

primary counties

POPULATION & DEMAND PROJECTIONS

17

• Distributed to Census Blocks– H-GAC land use

data– 114,200 blocks in

5 primary counties

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

18

• Other Boundary Conditions used in developing projections– MUDs– Cities– Regional Water

Authorities– Regulatory Boundaries– Groundwater Model

Grids

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

19

1 square mile grid

21

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20805,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

5,738,055

6,934,871

7,804,376

8,577,632 9,357,916

10,188,115

11,087,333

5,738,055

6,674,886

7,635,834

8,627,807

9,744,351

10,939,614

Regional ProjectionPrincipal Counties: Brazoria, Ft Bend,

Galveston, Harris, Montgomery

RWP2011 TWDB ADJUSTED REGIONAL GW UPDATE

Year

Popu

latio

n

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20800

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

3,400,578

4,092,459

4,707,870

5,058,1445,376,099

5,974,068

6,272,346

Harris County

1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20800

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

250,158

291,309

343,570377,373

403,820

447,126465,193

Galveston County

1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2035 2040 2050 2060 20700

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

354,452

585,375

881,966

1,095,123

1,259,307 1,583,782

1,755,164

Fort Bend County

1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20800

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

293,768455,746

627,917

811,252

1,019,278

1,267,916

1,576,135

1,946,063

Montgomery County

1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20800

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

241,767

313,166

359,935411,387

437,637

463,886519,696

581,368

648,568

Brazoria County

1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2,250,944

2,710,303 2,905,158

3,076,529 3,233,836

3,382,481 3,528,168

1,566,279 1,702,190

1,848,040 1,986,120

2,122,327 2,259,472

2,401,086

566,921 639,326 682,429 717,406 749,774 779,391 808,575

POPULATION BY HGSD REGULATORY AREA

HGSD_AREA_1 HGSD_AREA_2 HGSD_AREA_3

HGSD Area 3 Conversion Scenarios

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

30% 70% 80%Scenario 2(Current Regulatory Plans)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

30% 60% 80%

2025 2035Scenario 3

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

30% 55% 80%

2025Scenario 4

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

30%Scenario 1 (No Conversion After 2010)

Scenario 2(Current Regulatory Plans)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

No Conversion assumedScenario 1 (No Conversion After 2010)

2000 2010 2040 2050 2060 20702020 2030

60%

2025

30%

2014

50% 65%30%Scenario 3

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20702025 20352014

50%Scenario 4

30%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 207020252014

FBSD Area A Conversion Comparisons

Area

A

2000 2010 2040 2050 2060 2070Scenario 2

(Current Regulatory Plans)

30%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20702025Scenario 4

2020 2030

60%

2025

30%

2016

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

50% 65%

2025 2035Scenario 3

30%

2016

FBSD Richmond/Rosenberg Sub-Area Conversion Comparisons

Rich

/Ros

Sub

-Are

a

• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD)– No increase in surface water supply beyond 2010 conversions.– No assumed reductions in surface water supply and all future increases in water

demand are met with groundwater (Areas 1, 2, and 3).– Does not include Area 3 2020 70% groundwater reductions or 2030 80%

groundwater reductions.– Future growth beyond 2010 supplied by groundwater in Areas 1 and 2.

• Fort Bend County (FBSD)– Assumes no conversions in 2014, 2016, or 2025. All future growth supplied with

groundwater.

• Montgomery County (LSGCD)– No groundwater reductions in Montgomery County.

• Brazoria County (BCGCD)– No groundwater reductions in Brazoria County.

Scenario 1 - Growth Beyond 2010 on Groundwater(No Additional Surface Water)

SUBSIDENCE

(CI 1.0 ft)

• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan)– Area 1 = 90% conversion– Area 2 = 80% conversion– Area 3 = 30% conversion current to 2019– Area 3 = 70% conversion 2020 to 2029– Area 3 = 80% conversion 2030 and beyond

• Fort Bend County (FBSD 2003 Regulatory Plan)– Area A = 30% conversion 2014 to 2024– R/R Sub-Area = 30% conversion 2016 to 2024– Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 60% conversion 2025 and beyond– Area B remains on 100% groundwater.

• Montgomery County (LSGCD 2009 Regulatory Plan)– 30% conversion in 2016 based on 2009 demands. Groundwater capped at 64,000 acre-feet per

year for 2017 and beyond.

• Brazoria County (BCGCD)– No groundwater reduction regulations adopted in Brazoria County.

Scenario 2 – Current Adopted Regulations

SUBSIDENCE

• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan)– Area 1 = 90% conversion (same as Scenario 2)– Area 2 = 80% conversion (same as Scenario 2)– Area 3 = 30% conversion current to 2024 – Area 3 = 60% conversion 2025 to 2034– Area 3 = 80% conversion 2035 and beyond

• Fort Bend County (FBSD 2003 Regulatory Plan)– Area A = 30% conversion 2014 to 2024 (same as Scenario 2)– R/R Sub-Area = 30% conversion 2016 to 2024 (same as Scenario 2)– Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 50% conversion 2025 to 2034– Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 65% conversion 2035 and beyond– Area B remains on 100% groundwater (same as Scenario 2).

• Montgomery County (LSGCD 2009 Regulatory Plan)– 30% conversion in 2016 based on 2009 demands. Groundwater capped at 64,000 acre-feet per year

for 2017 and beyond (same as Scenario 2).

• Brazoria County (BCGCD)– Assume City of Pearland (including ETJ) converts to 50% surface water by 2016 and beyond.

Revised Scenario 3 – Modifications to Current Adopted Regulations

SUBSIDENCE

CI: 25 feet

CI: 25 feet

CI: 25 feet

CI: 25 feet

Subsidence Model PRESS Sites

Area A Area B R/RSub Area

Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in FBSD

Area 1

Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD

Area 2

Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD

Area 3

Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD

Key Stakeholder Testimony for 2013 Plan

• Change to the 2025 Conversion date makes infrastructure construction achievable

• Plans for completion of the Luces Bayou Water Transfer will remain on schedule with already existing timetables

Key Stakeholder Testimony for 2013 Plan

• Change to the 2025 Conversion date makes future conversion costs more acceptable

• Results of changes outlined in Scenario 3 do not create significant impact on future subsidence rates

Regulatory Plan2013

Harris-GalvestonSubsidence District

1660 W. Bay Area Blvd.Friendswood TX 77546

(281) 486-1105www.subsidence.org

DRAFTApproved

Key Elements – HGSD 2013 Regulatory Plan

• No change to Regulatory Area boundaries• No change to Areas 1 & 2 Regulations

• Area 1 = 90% conversion• Area 2 = 80% conversion

1

3

2

Key Elements – HGSD 2013 Regulatory Plan

• Area 3 Regulations Updated• 30% conversion current to 2024• 60% conversion 2025 to 2034• 80% conversion 2035 and beyond

1

3

2

Disincentive Fee

Disincentive Fee changed from $5.00 to $7.00 per 1,000 gallons

Land-surface subsidence (1915 through 1917) – 2001 determined by GIS techniques in Harris County, Texas

by Mark C. Kasmarek; 1906-2000 land-surface contours determined by Robert K. Gabrysch