back to the future 08 monday/… · back to the future: case studies of scenarios wwf and natural...
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1ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
BACK TO THE FUTURE: CASE STUDIES OF SCENARIOS
WWF and Natural Capital Project, ACES Workshop
December 8, 2014
Amy Rosenthal Nasser Olwero Nirmal Bhagabati
Adam Dixon Emily McKenzie Gregory Verutes
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2ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
SCENARIOS IN PRACTICECases from Belize, Tanzania, and Cambodia
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3ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
ONE EXAMPLEDEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR BELIZE
Coastal managementBelize
OUR GOALS• Understand and map current uses, • Map and value coastal and marine
ecosystem services now and in the future, • Create an ecosystem-based plan for
multiple uses.
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4ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
• Understand how human activities affect ecosystem services now and in the future.
• Compare alternative planning options and select one approach.
• Engage stakeholders to inform the planning process and learn from results.
• Provide evidence that sound management best achieves goals.
• Foster planning for improved environmental and economic outcomes.
• Set a foundation for future planning and monitoring changes.
SCENARIO GOALSFRAMING QUESTION: How will alternative development and conservation strategies affect key ecosystem services for Belize?
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5ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
SCIENTISTSPOLICYMAKERSSTAKEHOLDERS
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6ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
Stakeholder consultation
Data gathering & mapping
Ecosystem service modeling
Habitat type
Species distribution
Bathymetry & Topography
Oceanography
BIO-PHYSICAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC
Population density
Property values
Aquaculture operation costs
Demographics
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7ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
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8ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
Arkema et al. in press
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9ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
In Waite et al. 2014
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10ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
ONE EXAMPLEDEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR TANZANIA
REDD+ and Payments for Watershed Services TanzaniaOUR GOALS
• Advocate conservation by demonstrating nature’s value
• Demonstrate need for REDD and PWS policies • Suggest where REDD and PWS pilots feasible
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11ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
• Explore how relevant drivers might change in the future
• Elucidate how land-use changes affect ES delivery
• Ground scenarios in policy and practical realities
• Engage stakeholders and experts in process to build support and improve data
• Demonstrate the importance of ES and the power of ES maps
SCENARIO GOALSFRAMING QUESTION: Where are REDD and PWS pilots most likely to be economically viable compared with other land-use choices?
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12ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
METHODS• Reviewed sectoral & national policies
• Interviewed decision-makers & stakeholders
• Held many participatory workshop– To identify drivers, create storylines, develop rules
• Converted rules into maps with GIS
@ Taylor Ricketts
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13ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
Swetnam et al. 2011
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14ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
RESULTS INFORM REDD INVESTMENT
Matazamio 2025
Current
BAU 2025
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15ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
ONE EXAMPLEDEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR CAMBODIA
Land use planning & benefits sharingCambodia
OUR GOALS• Advocate conservation by demonstrating
nature’s value• Illustrate how ecosystem services affected
by different policies • Inform benefits-sharing mechanisms
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16ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
• Explore how the landscape might change in the future
• Conduct a learning process with stakeholders support land-use planning process
• Understand how land-use changes affect ES delivery
• Consider new planning options that provide multiple ecosystem services
SCENARIO GOALSFRAMING QUESTION: How might forest ecosystem services and wildlife habitat change with different land uses, and what land-use plans could conserve forests?
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17ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
METHODSTWO STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOPS
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18ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
FROM STORYLINES TO MAPSIN 3 SCENARIOS
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19ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
BASELINEWHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE LANDSCAPE NOW?
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20ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
BUSINESS AS USUALWHAT IF WE CONTINUED CURRENT TREND?
Cover Δ Change to
BambooForest 0%DecidDipterForest -1% rubber plantationEvergreenForest 0NonForest 1% road, settlementOtherForestRubberPlantation 3% rubber plantationSemiEvergreenForest -2% rubber plantation
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21ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
GREEN ECONOMYWHAT IF WE BALANCED CONS AND DEVELOPMENT?
Cover Δ Change to
BambooForest -20% Settlement and farming
DecidDipterForest -40% Settlement, farming and plantation
EvergreenForest -10% Mono crop plantation and settlement
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22ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
ALL TOGETHER
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23ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
PANEL DISCUSSION
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24ACES scenarios workshop December 8, 2014
CASE METHODSBELIZE, TANZANIA, CAMBODIA
Stakeholders, GISTanzania
Stakeholders, Scenario GeneratorCambodiaStakeholders, GIS, ES
modelingBelize