baganuur coal mine expansion - mzv · 2012. 2. 20. · 100% of coal consumption to baganuur power...
TRANSCRIPT
Baganuur coal mine expansionOpportunities for investors
Ulaanbaatar
Content
• Introduction• Resources and reserves• Coal production• Market outlook• Mine expansion plan• Research and development• Investment issues
Introduction• ESTABLISHED IN1978.
• SE 130 KM FROM ULAANBAATAR. CONNECTED TO PAVED ROAD AND RAILWAY NETWORK.
• GOVERNMENT OWNS 75%, OTHERS 25%OF SHARES RESPECTIVELY.
• EMPLOYEES 1100
• EXTRACTS 50% OF COAL CONSUMPTION FOR PRODUCING ENERGY OF MONGOLIA, 60% FOR CENTRAL REGION.
Coal quality standartMNS 3818‐2001
Type of coal size
Ash content /%/
<Aã
Moisture /%/<Wã
Sulfur content /%/ Sd
t
Volatile matter /%/V
Calorific value <Qã
t
Kkal/kg KJ/kg
Brown coal type -B2 17.5 37.5 0.5 45 3360 13.0
Main consumers
# Thermal power plants
Annual supply
/thous.tn/Shares to total consumption
1 TPP-4 1600.0 60%2 TPP-3 1100.0 100%3 TPP-2 210.0 100%4 Darkhan TPP 250.0 60%5 Erdenet TPP 120.0 50%
Resource and reserve
Proved in 1978 with 600.0 million tons.Updated in 1998 with 708.2 million tons as a result of detailed survey.In total, 88.4 million tons of coal has been extracted since 1978.Norvest migrated the reserve model of 1978 into Minex in 3D.
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900 0,
2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9 1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9 2
Кхх,
м3/тн
Mill
ions
Minimum thicknesses of coal seam, m
2-р давхарга
2a-р давхарга
3-р давхарга
Хязгаарласан хөрс хуулалтын итгэлцүүр, м3/тн
Resource and reserve
Reserve can be elevated up to 700 million tones depending on the availability of minable coal seam thicknesses.
Seam 2
Seam 2a
Seam 3
Limiting strip ratio m3/ton
Quality of survey results
Laboratory analysis:In total samples from drilled boreholes
Ash analysis 47%Caloric value analysis 24%Sulphur content analysis 47%Volatile analysis 29%Core recovery – (60-70%)
Insufficient quality of survey
to prepare a Feasilibility
study for a bank
Requires detailed survey to choose proper mine technology for the mine.Potentiality of resource increase up to 1.0 billion tones by conductingadditional geological survey in accordance with international standards.
‐
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Нүүрс олборлолт, м.тн Кхх, м3/тнCoal production, thous.tons
COAL PRODUCTION
Increase in earth moving.
Current situation
CHALLENGES• Overdue overburden • Water drainage issues• Higher unit production cost than selling price• Coal price set by government• Outdated equipments and facilities - 90%, requires technical
renovation.• Movement in internal stock piling• Unreachable reserves due to geological conditions• Increase in transport distance• HR risks- lower salary• Financial issues
Requires technical renovation and decrease in production cost
PROJECTED COAL CONSUMPTION IN CENTRAL REGION
5,2 5,3 5,9 7,1 10,6 11,7 13,0
15,0 6,5 6,8 7,5
8,8
12,5 13,7
15,7 18,1
‐2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0
Million tone
s
ТЭХС‐ийн хэрэглээ Тєвийн бүсийн нийт хэрэглээ
2012 20172016201520142013 2018 2025Central energy system’s consumption
Total consumption in central region
Coal consumption of central region projected to be 6.5 million tones in 2012 while it will reach 15.7 million tones in 2018, 18.1 million tones in 2025 respectively.
Regarding the consumption projection, Baganuur mine needs to expand the mine capacity.
Capacity expansion
3,30 3,57 3,52 4,30
5,51 5,51 5,51 5,64 6,05 6,00 6,13 5,2 5,3 5,9 7,1
10,6 11,7 12,2 12,5 13,0 13,5 14,0
-
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Багануурын нийлүүлэлт
ТЭХС-ийн эрэлтDemand from CES
30% of coal consumption to TPP-5 which will be built with 820 MW capacity in 2012-2016.100% of coal consumption to Baganuur power plant which will be built with 270MW in 2013-2016. projected coal production of the mine is 6 million tons by 2020.
Supply from Baganuur
Technological developments
To entry Surface mining technology for Coal production and overburden
To build conveyor systems for both coal and waste transport
To start using underground mine technologies in some coal seams.
To reduce overburden volume and optimize mine earth movements
COAL PRICE AND MINEABLE RESERVEs
140 186 392
683 717 731 749
1,98 2,16
2,43
2,72 2,74 2,75 2,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
2,40
2,60
2,80
3,00
‐
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1 1,2 1,3
Millions
Хөрс, м3
Нүүрс, тн
Кхх, м3/тн
Main option‐ Coal price 20500 tugriks/ton
Technology: Surface mining + Conveyor systems
Mineable reserve can be elevated to 749 million tones if selling price increased by
30% after technological renovation.
Minimum coal thickness seam‐
0.4 m
Waste, m3
Coal, ton
Strip ratio, m3/t
74 84 123 148 150 152 152 45 65
167
298 310 315 325
22 37
102
238 258 264 272
‐
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1 1,2 1,3
Millions
Factor impacting selling price
2‐р давхарга
2a‐р давхарга
3‐р давхарга
Minimum thickness of coal seam‐ 0.4 m
Main option‐ Coal price 20500 tugriks/ton
COAL PRICE AND MINEABLE RESERVETechnology: Surface mining+ conveyor system
Seam 2
Seam 2a
Seam 3
MINE PLAN 2012-20224,10
3,51 3,19
2,69
2,05 2,34
2,14 2,22 2,30 2,24 2,07
‐
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
‐
5
10
15
20
25 2012
он
2013
он
2014
он
2015
он
2016
он
2017
он
2018
он
2019
он
2020
он
2021
он
2022
он
Strip
ratio
m3/t
Million
Хөрс хуулалт, м3
Нийт нүүрс, тн
Хөрс хуулалтын итгэлцүүр, м3/тн
Substantial decline in the volume of vesting
waste, m3
Coal, ton
Strip ratio, m3/t
PROJECTED COST AFTER TECHNOLOGICAL RENOVATION
23,121,7
20,3
17,7
14,6 15,5 15,3 15,4 15,1 14,8 13,9
4,2 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,3 5,1 5,4 5,3 5,0 5,0 5,0
‐
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Strip
ratio
, m3/t
Thou
s. tu
griks
1 тн нүүрсний бүрэн өөрийн өртөг 1 м3 Уулын цулд ноогдох зардал КххUnit cost/ton coal Unit cost/ m3 rock mass Strip ratio
Preparation to stock exchange (2012)
- Geophysical survey- Detailed survey drilling - Geotechnical survey- Drainage survey- Resource report in accordance with JORC- Have the resource report in accordance with Mongolian standard approved by Mineral Resource Authority. - Have the feasibility study in accordance with Mongolian standard approved by Mineral Resource Authority. - Feasibility study for a bank- Prepare documents for stock exchange
- Баяжуулах үйлдвэрийн туршилт судалгаа ТЭЗҮ боловсруулахAdditional shares to be sold at domestic stock exchange to raise the necessary fund while keeping state owned shares at 51% in 2012.
Investment plan
14
71,6
1,5 4,1
11,1
3,9 2,9 9,4
2,9 1,5 7,1
1,5
(10)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Хөрөнгийн биржд гарах бэлтгэл ажлын зардал
Уурхайн тоног төхөөрөмж
Preparation cost to stock exchange
Mine equipments and facilities
(/in accordance with Feasibility study done by Glogex LLC)
Total investment of 131.4 million USD required between 2012 and 2022
ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
• Investment– Facilities
• CAPEX 2012: USD85.5 million • OPEX (2013-2015): USD16.7 million• OPEX (2016-2022): USD29.2 million• Total: USD117.5 million
– Preparation cost to stock exchange USD 13.9 million – Total USD131.4 million
• Coal price/ton: 20500 tugriks in 2012, 22500 tugriks in 2013-2022• Unit cost/ ton of coal
– in 2012: 23100 tugriks– in 2014: 20300 tugriks– in 2018: 15300 tugriks– in 2022: 13900 tugriks
• Net present value (when NPV @ 10%): 35.6 billion tugriks• Internal rate of return (IRR) - 13.4 %,• Payback period – 7.91years or in 2018.
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