bahrain opposition representation

8/7/2019 Bahrain Opposition Representation

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Bahrain OppositionWas it a Silent Majority or is it now a Loud Minority?


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Introduction

This short presentation does not intend to look indepth into the political situation in Bahrain, butrather look into answering the following:

What kind of democracy is on the ground inBahrain?

What is the representation of the opposition in the 3branches of government (legislative, judiciary &

executive)?

What powers does the Parliament possess in Bahrain?How much does the opposition actually represent from

the fabric of the Bahraini society? And how much is its

representation in Parliament?

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Assumptions & Sources

This study & numbers were based on figures extractedfrom:www.alwasatnews.com/elections (for 2010 population &

electorate)

www.vote.bh (for 2010 voting figures)

Main assumptionsThe fabric of the Bahrain society is such that oppositionand pro-government populace are seen in same districts,but remain proportionately well drawn.

The 40 electoral district composition in Bahrain in 5governorates strictly draws the line between oppositionand pro-government populace (except for 3 contesteddistricts, as will be clear hereafter)

This conservative approach, hence results, works best forpro-government representation understating oppositionfigures, but still does not affect the main results andconclusions.

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The Bahrain Parliament

The King remains the head of all branches of government(legislative, judiciary & executive).The Parliament is composed of two houses:

Upper House: Shura CounselLower House: House of Representatives

The two houses comprise of 40 members each, with thelower house being an elected one, and the upper houseappointed by the King.

Draft laws leave the lower house to the upper one, andmust then be signed by the King.In case of disagreement between the two houses, theParliament (both houses) holds a joint session to discuss thedraft, which in the event of agreement must still be signedby the King.

In all cases, the King can rule the country via Royal Decrees,bypassing both houses of Parliament.

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Current OppositionRepresentation in Parliament

The Legislator

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House of Representatives

(40 ELECTED Members)

Shura Counsel

(40 APPOINTED Members)

KING

Parlia

ment Opposition representation in Lower House

Opposition representation in

Parliament


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Gerrymandering:Bahrain Governorates

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1. Capital

2. Central

3. Muharraq

4. Northern

5. Southern* Percentages represent % out of Bahrainpopulation, electorate & house of

representatives in each governorate for pro-government and opposition respectively.

Opposition Pro-government


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Gerrymandering:A more overall look

In the two most populatedgovernorates - Northern & Central-, which happen to be oppositionstrongholds, the representation inthe lower house is 18% less thanwhat it should be compared to theelectorate.

The Southern governorate, a pro-government stronghold isoverrepresented by 10% in thelower house, as is the case withpro-government representation inMuharraq and Capitalgovernorates (by 3% each).

This misrepresentation overall inBahrain gives the opposition 45%only of the lower house, when infact it represents at least 60% of theelectorate.

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Opposition Pro-government


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Electoral Districts:1. MuharraqIn a mainlypro-government governorate, the number ofelectorate per electoral district is mostly belowthe average

electorate per district in Bahrain. This also applies to theaverage population per district.

The Muharraq governorate is over-represented by only 1% inthe lower house of Parliament.

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Electoral Districts:2. CapitalThe Capital governorate is mainly opposition dominated, and

is the second least populated governorate in terms ofelectorate, with all the districts being below the average

population and electorate figures in Bahrain.

Therefore, the Capital governorate is over-represented by 8%in the lower house of Parliament.

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Electoral Districts:3. NorthernThe Northern governorate is the opposition stronghold, and isthe most populated governorate in Bahrain. All districts are well

above the average population and electorate figures per

district in Bahrain (except for District 4, which is a pro-government district).

Hence, this governorate is under-represented by 11% in thelower house of Parliament.

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Electoral Districts:4. CentralThe Central governorate is an evenly split governorate in

terms of populace political affiliations, and the secondmost populated governorate in Bahrain.

The opposition-dominated districts in this governorate arethe most populated, which makes the opposition in thisgovernorate under-represented by at least 7%.

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Electoral Districts:5. SouthernThe Southern governorate is a pro-government stronghold

and the least populated governorate in Bahrain, with all of itsdistricts well below the average population and electorate

per district figures of Bahrain.

This makes this governorate over-represented by 10% in thelower house of Parliament.

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Conclusions

From the brief analysis of both the legislativeprocess in Bahrain, the structure of the legislativebranch of government and the cleargerrymandering in the drawing of electoral districts,the following can be concluded:

1.The democratic process in Bahrain falls short ofproper representation; with the people having asay in only half the legislative and NO say in thejudiciary nor executive branches of government.

2.The opposition represents at least 60% of thepopulation, but is represented by 45% of theHouse of Representatives, and 22% of theParliament.

3.The February 14th Uprising is a consequence of aPreviously Silent Majority speaking up for its Rights

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For more InformationContact Us: [email protected]

Thank You

bahrain opposition representation

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