balancing on the brink: rationality, revolution and military insurrection in spain and chile
TRANSCRIPT
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BALANCING ON THE BRINK: RATIONALITY, RADICALISM,AND MILITARY INSURRECTION IN SPAIN AND CHILE
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Steve Snow
Wagner College
Journal of Political and Military Sociology Vol. 26 No. 2, Winter 1998.
Note: This is a pre-publication version of the final, published article.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Why would politicians knowingly increase the probability of a military coup? At times,
political incentives lead them to institute policies that redound to their harm (Kaufman and
Stallings, 1991; Shepsle and Weingast, 1984; Weingast et al., 1981). To what extent such
incentives can explain actions that place politicians’ own lives in danger, however, remains to be
seen. I examine this issue with reference to the archetypal examples of leftist governments
clearly threatened and then attacked by their domestic enemies: the Spanish Popular Front of
1936 and the Chilean Unidad Popular (U.P.) of 1970-73. Both pursued a surprisingly dangerous
course after being greeted with loud military plotting. They could have reduced the threat of a
coup to near zero by repressing the militant working classes, seeking full parliamentary
authorization for all controversial policies, and subduing their leftist allies. Instead, they
presided over massive strike waves and workplace occupations, reforms of questionable legality,
and strident incitements to root-and-branch revolution by their extremist coalition partners. Why
did Prime Minister Manuel Azaña in Spain and President Salvador Allende in Chile allow those
conditions to develop which they knew would provoke the armed forces and their rightist
supporters? Later in their rule, why did they not take those steps the military demanded as a
condition for avoiding insurrection? To pursue these questions, I investigate the explanatory
scope of rational-choice theory (RCT), which can help us explain the first, but not the second.
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To account for the puzzling actions of the Spanish and Chilean politicians, it is necessary
to examine the political constraints under which they ruled. Both governments faced bitterly
hostile rightist opposition, a militant and well-organized working class, and depended on
political support from revolutionary leftist parties. Both the Popular Front and the U.P. were the
second stages of reformist processes begun by previous governments: the Spanish Republic’s
“reformist biennium” (1931-33) and Chilean President Frei’s “Revolution in Liberty” (1966-70).
These administrations achieved some legislative successes, but their central legacy was a
mobilized, radicalized working class and peasantry disillusioned with reformism and eager for
socialism. Yet the Popular Front and U.P proposed relatively modest programs. Amnesty for
political prisoners, agrarian reform, and public works made up the Popular Front agenda. In
Chile, the U.P called for wide expansion of the public sector of the economy and acceleration of
agrarian reform.2
It was difficult to maintain these limited programs, and government leaders soon
implemented more radical measures due to pressure from the left and from below. In each case,
the governing coalition was split into reformist and revolutionary wings, where the reformers
were politically dependent on allies to their left who denounced incrementalism and incited the
workers and peasants to dismantle the capitalist system. In the face of such disruptions, which
the right and the military harshly decried, the reformists knew establishing the “order” their
opponents called for would redound to their political harm; meeting the demands of militant
labor and the far left, on the other hand, safeguarded their political bases. Without abandoning
the reformist agenda, it was impossible to allay the rightist parties’ complete opposition. To
reach out for votes from centrist parties meant to water-down the government’s policies, leading
to a corresponding loss of support from the extreme left. Therefore, neither government enjoyed
the option of quashing their allies and the revolutionary masses, then replacing the resulting loss
of votes in the legislature by those of the center and right. The choice, therefore, was between
forsaking their proposed legislation, or maintaining broad leftist political support and thereby
running the risk of provoking the armed forces. The Spanish and Chilean moderates’ refusal to
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repudiate the extreme left and repress the workers and peasants was, in short, politically realistic,
and therefore can be seen as rational--up to a point. In the last days and weeks, politics should
have mattered less than avoiding an imminent military attack, and in that period we must view
Azaña and Allende as irrational.
Political incentives thus can account for the seemingly irrational decisions that brought
Spain and Chile to the brink of catastrophe. RCT is less useful, however, in explaining the
civilian leaders’ decisions in the unfamiliar and tense atmosphere immediately preceding
military insurrection. Using these findings, I evaluate the different circumstances under which
scholars have argued one can expect rational action. Such assessments are necessary to improve
the rational-choice approach as a useful explanatory tool.
2.0 DETERMINING THE DOMAIN OF RATIONAL-CHOICE THEORY
Researchers need a means to select possible explanatory approaches, not faith in their
chosen method. The characteristics of the phenomena we analyze should determine this
selection. When considering the appropriateness of RCT explanations, therefore, one must pay
close attention to the conditions under which we can expect individuals to act rationally. By
RCT I mean those theories that assume egoistic agents who act to satisfy their stable and ordered
preferences, and recognize the alternatives and consequences. In this paper I employ a minimal
definition of rational political action: actors seek first to remain alive, and second to remain in
power; losing office will always be preferable to losing life. There is much current criticism of
the rational-choice approach (e.g., Cook and Levi, 1990; Green and Shapiro, 1994; Smelser,
1992). Perhaps the warmest of the prevailing debates concerns the usefulness of RCT in
supplying novel explanations of empirical phenomena (Green and Shapiro, 1994).
Smelser (1992:400) identifies “theoretical degeneration” as a problem that exists across
academic boundaries. From psychoanalysis to Marxism, theoretical formulations tend to decay
into a drastic “indeterminacy. . .[i.e.,] the capacity to explain everything and hence nothing.” In
the case of RCT, when one does not limit the range of assumed motivations, “it becomes
possible to posit maximization of something in any conceivable situation” (Smelser, 1992:403).
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To describe all behavior in terms of “maximization” is not a useful exercise, if one assumes that
the purpose of theory is to advance knowledge by persuasive explanation. RCT is not out of the
woods, however, when analysts assume actors possess a limited range of motivations. Applying
a more circumscribed RCT “wherever the theory seems to work” is a form of confirmatory bias
that does not allow for falsification, according to Green and Shapiro (1994:45). A more useful
method is to specify in advance the theory’s limiting conditions and relevant domain, use them to
specify possible tests, and thereby permit results counter to the theory’s predictions. This would
involve abandoning the “universal” aspirations of RCT and “treat[ing] both maximization and
rational calculation as variables rather than postulates” (Smelser, 1992:404; cf. Ferejohn and
Satz, 1995). This approach, which Green and Shapiro (1995:264-5) term “segmented
universalism,” assumes that rational-choice explanations work in some situations but not in
others, and sets its sights on clearly identifying and analyzing each. In this paper I examine the
usefulness and limitations of RCT in explaining the events in Spain and Chile, and employ these
findings in the investigation of the circumstances in which the rational-choice approach is most
applicable.
Green and Shapiro (1995:267), Kelley (1995:101) and Taylor (1995:225-26) describe
situations in which they believe actors are most likely to behave rationally. There are differences
between these hypothetical conditions (to which I return later), but they are generally similar. As
a starting point for my analysis, I use the conditions Green and Shapiro specify: “Rational choice
explanations should be expected, prima facie, to perform well to the extent that the following
five conditions are met:”
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(i) the stakes are high and the players are self-conscious optimizers; (ii)
preferences are well ordered and relatively fixed...; (iii) actors are presented with
a clear range of options and little opportunity for strategic innovation, (iv) the
strategic complexity of the situation is not overwhelmingly great for the
actors...and (v) the actors have the capacity to learn from feedback in the
environment and adapt.
As the authors note, only the process of empirical inquiry will indicate the
appropriateness of this schema (Green and Shapiro, 1995:267). In this paper I use the five
conditions they offer, first, to identify an appropriate application of RCT, and second, to attempt
to explain apparently irrational behavior using this approach. While these conditions
characterized Azaña and Allende’s entire rule, their choices in the last months were not rational.
(While I focus on these leaders’ choices, I also more broadly consider those of the governing left
in both nations.) These decisions helped lead to their loss of power, and, in the case of several
politicians--including Allende himself-- their deaths. This is not empirical territory that would
appear conducive to RCT explanations; these cases are interesting and instructive in part because
they represent situations in which political actors put their careers and lives in danger. Tsebelis
(1990:120) argues that rational politicians may “commit political suicide”; this paper investigates
the extent to which rationality can account for steps toward literal self-destruction.
The circumstances Green and Shapiro describe depict well the situation Azaña and
Allende faced. The stakes were extremely high: the actors confronted the destruction of
democracy, civil war, and consequently great personal risk. It was clear to both that the military
and its rightist allies posed a serious threat.
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Second, I assume that the politicians’ mostimportant goals were staying alive and staying in office, in that order. It is reasonable, I believe,
to assume that these preferences were well ordered and stable, and I will not linger on this point.
Third, the politicians confronted sharply limited choices: to abide by or reject that which the
armed forces and rightist groups decreed as the acceptable scope of political action. Fourth, the
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complexity of the circumstances was not great, as the actors faced a relatively simple, if difficult,
choice. Finally, they did have the opportunity to learn and adapt, albeit under severe time
constraints. That is, politicians recognized that their refusal to employ repression was
heightening the chances of armed conflict. These cases appear to be of the type where one can
expect rational action, according to Green and Shapiro’s analysis. Yet we must still formulate a
supplementary account that is consistent with RCT and that can explain the key choices made by
Azaña and Allende. My argument in this regard focuses on the institutional restraints they faced.
Scholars have not yet persuasively explained Azaña and Allende’s most enigmatic
decisions. Existing studies of the fall of Spanish and Chilean democracy, among which one can
discern four central approaches, are often highly partisan.
Most grotesque is the assertion that
the military stepped in to prevent a coup by the “communists” (e.g., Arrarás, 1968; Moss, 1973).
From the opposite end of the political spectrum, others hold that disaster was the result of a
naive, erroneous faith in a peaceful transition to socialism (e.g., Bookchin, 1980; Sweezy and
Magdoff, 1974). In more balanced accounts of each government’s key choices before military
insurrection, the moderate right stresses the politicians’ irresponsible partisanship (Falcoff, 1989;
Payne, 1993), while the moderate left (mostly silent on this issue), emphasizes the difficult
situation in which the governments found themselves (DeVylder, 1976; Preston, 1978). Finally,
and unfortunately clearly in the minority, are those more analytical approaches that investigate,
without apparent political biases, unexplained theoretical or empirical puzzles related to the two
cases (e.g., Comín and Martín, 1984; Kaufman and Stallings, 1991). It is to this last group that
this paper seeks to make a contribution; the analytical school has not yet addressed the issue of
the Spanish and Chilean leaders’ possible motivations, much less from a comparative
perspective.
Several observers have briefly noted the similarities between the two cases (Landsberger
and McDaniel, 1976; Malefakis, 1976; Morlino, 1981). Only Landsberger and Linz (1979),
however, provide a comparative analysis. These authors note that a classic arms race preceded
the final confrontation in each country. The left, to protect itself from the armed right, began to
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acquire weapons. This led to more intense collection of arms by the right. Neither side desired a
more dangerous opponent, neither were irrevocably committed to violence, yet their actions led
to those results. One can view this strategic interaction as a Prisoners’ Dilemma game, where
leftist and rightist militias’ conduct was rational, yet led to a Pareto-inferior outcome. Using
different terminology, the participants themselves shared this interpretation. Only days before
the Chilean coup, a former presidential candidate wrote to the Army Chief of Staff that,
As in the tragedies of Greek classical theater, all know what will happen, all do
not wish it to occur, but each one does precisely what is necessary to provoke the
unfortunate outcome (quoted in Valenzuela and Valenzuela, 1976:vii).
The approach of civil war in Spain and Chile is thus not incompatible with rational foot soldiers
on each side. To what degree we can explain in rational-choice terms the behavior of those in
government has not been explored, however. The first step is to show that it is reasonable to
expect rationality under the circumstances in which Spanish and Chilean politicians found
themselves. To this end I apply Green and Shapiro’s five conditions for rational action to the
particular social and political environments in which the elected leaders made their fateful
decisions.
3.0 EXPLAINING POLITICAL PROVOCATION: THE PATH TO THE BRINK
We should look for rational behavior where actors face clear choices and high stakes, in
not excessively complex circumstances, and with the opportunity to learn from feedback.
Elected in February 1936, the Popular Front confronted the unpleasant yet distinct options of
repressing or allowing relatively free rein to the ebullient Spanish workers and the extremists
who encouraged them.4 The consequences of the choice could not have been higher, as it was
obvious that many on the right threatened democratic institutions. The military, supported by
fascists and monarchists, repeatedly warned that they would tolerate neither democracy if
accompanied by social unrest, nor reforms instituted by questionable means. The opponents of
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the government were quite vocal about their views, and the leftist politicians would have ample
opportunity to learn from responses to their actions.
Before the establishment of the Spanish Republic, armed forces newspapers consistently
asserted that “disorder” and revolution would inevitably accompany a transition to democracy
(see, e.g., La Correspondencia Militar, 8-12 April 1931). Editorials repeatedly declared the
military’s willingness to end the perceived threat. La Correspondencia Militar (19 May 1931)
stated that in order to fend off the leftist menace, society must behave as “organisms invaded by
microbes: eliminate them.”5
A coup was clearly among the options. Ejército y Armada (2
October 1931), for example, warned when Spain desired to “modify the regime, or change it, the
Army will be at its side.” Some time later, Marte (28 November 1933) stated the military would
not protect Spanish democracy. Even the more moderate conservatives refused to commit
themselves to democratic institutions; their difference with the ultra right was that the latter
openly declared their willingness to use force. In a prophetic warning, one financial journal
referred to a nineteenth-century coup when it warned that the Republic should maintain order
and discipline, “or there would come in its moment and time another General Pavía who would
impose normality” ( El Financiero 17 April 1931). A central fear was that leftist reforms would
not follow parliamentary and legal channels. In a typical editorial, El Economista (4 July 1931)
declared that the government must “carry out as its first duty the reestablishment of tranquility,
and then in an ambience of calm can undertake, through legal channels, the legislative reforms.”
(See also El Economista, 18 April 1931; 11 July 1931; El Financiero, 3 July 1931; La Semana
Financiera, 1 May 1931.) Upon the election of the Popular Front in 1936 the government
became aware of plots of rebellion in the military (Payne, 1993:279; Preston, 1978:179). It was
clear that failure to control the workers and the extreme left would increase these dangers
(Jackson, 1965:205-6; Payne, 1993:314-15). The army and the far right warned that only by
repressing popular militancy could the Popular Front prevent military intervention (Robinson,
1970:254 and passim). The more moderate opposition made clear that any government reforms
had to closely follow legal channels.
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The Chilean government also confronted distinct, uncomplicated options, high stakes,
and had the opportunity to adapt to the loud, threatening feedback of its opponents. Allende
could either limit its reforms to those passed by the legislature, or utilize workers’ direct action
to advance the U.P. program over the objections of its opponents. Taking the second option
would increase the hostility of the right and the armed forces, which Allende knew was a
considerable hazard. After the Army Chief of Staff was assassinated following the presidential
election of 1970 in an attempt to prevent Allende from coming to power, he recognized that the
Chilean extreme right and elements of the armed forces comprised a clear threat to democracy
(Allende, 1973:58). When asked about military uprisings, Allende said “confrontations will
occur,” and declared he expected “reactionary violence...we know that they are going to break
the rules” (Debray, 1971:97-100). Public revulsion at the assassination allowed Allende to gain
Christian Democratic (PDC) support for his election in Congress (required of those presidential
candidates lacking a majority of the popular vote). In return for their votes, the PDC insisted that
Allende agree to a series of constitutional amendments pledging him to uphold democratic
norms. The statutes provided the explicit rules that Allende would have to follow if the armed
forces were to remain out of politics, insisting, for example, on “the full maintenance of the rule
of Law” (quoted in Alexander, 1978:127). On the other hand, if the far left were to tempt
Allende to violate the guarantees, the military would have a clear rationale for intervention
(Sigmund, 1977:120). One author has termed the statutes as the “Damoclean sword (whose
embodiment was the armed forces), [which] was to remain suspended” over the heads of the
governing left (Roxborough, 1976:198). Thus the U.P. knew the conditions under which armed
opponents would allow it to operate. The extreme right (rather hypocritically) warned that it
would not tolerate illegality by the U.P. The fascist Patria y Libertad , for example, declared “if
the government moves away from the Constitution by a millimeter, we will use force” (Marshall,
1970:5). During the entire 1970-73 period, much of the rightist propaganda was a denunciation
of the government’s allegedly illegal deeds (Hinkelamert, 1976; Knudson, 1984). The question
of legality was tied to that of public order, and members of the administration acknowledged that
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losing control of the masses meant sacrificing the allegiance of the army--which in turn implied
civil war (Garcés, 1972, 33).
In this overview of the political situation at the outset of the rule of the left in Spain and
Chile, we can see that both governments operated under the conditions specified by Green and
Shapiro. Both knew well what was at stake: the survival of democratic institutions. Both knew
what their options were, i.e., what the right and the military considered to be the tolerable limits
to political action. The strategic complexity of the situation was not great: comply with the
guidelines their opponents specified, or go beyond them. Further, the politicians in each country
were able to learn from--although they did not adapt to--the actions and pronouncements of their
enemies, as I detail below. As Green and Shapiro would predict, one can employ a rational-
choice perspective to explain the initial decisions Spanish and Chilean politicians took, which
can be seen as rational if we examine each political system’s institutional constraints and
inducements.
3.1 Breaking the “rules”: political incentives.
Despite the clarity of the dangers they faced, each government allowed to develop
precisely those circumstances the military and the right explicitly condemned: reforms of
questionable legality, social disorder, and incitements to revolution. In both cases, the
institutional inducement formed by a political dependence on the far left led the moderates to
countenance situations that brought them to the brink of conflict with the military. The Spanish
Popular Front presided over extreme social unrest and politicians’ loud calls for revolution, in
spite of the clear warnings. This can be seen as a coherent if very dangerous strategy chosen in
response to the political realities of the period. The crux of the matter was the reliance of the
moderate left on their extremist brethren. Azaña led the Republican forces of the Front, who
were dependent in the Cortes (Parliament) on the votes of the Socialists, Communists and other
“bolshevized” parties who refused to serve in the government. This meant that the revolutionary
left often drove governmental decisionmaking, which the administration itself publicly
recognized (Robinson, 1970:264; Bolloten, 1979:35). As one Spanish historian phrased it, “the
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Republicans were required to pay for the victory which the Popular Front had given them”
(quoted in Payne, 1993:287). Conservative forces saw the danger of such dependence shortly
after the election. In the words of La Semana Financiera (28 February 1936), “the proletarian
parties will try to push the left-republicans [to extremist policies]. . . the question that is on
everyone’s mind is whether the left-republicans will proceed down that road, from concession to
concession.” Events soon confirmed such fears, as the appeasing tendencies of the Popular Front
were apparent from the start.
In response to pressure from the streets and its allies, on several occasions the
government took actions that served to galvanize the already hostile opposition. Soon after the
Popular Front election, for example, the Ministry of Labor, responding to street demonstrations
and appeals from the far left, quickly promulgated a radicalized version of the compensation
promised for those convicted of political crimes. The Ministry termed its own measure “a policy
of pacification” (quoted in El Economista, 7 March 1936), and business groups declared that it
stemmed from a desire to appease the working classes, and thus signified “a suppression of all
juridic meaning in Spain” ( El Sol, 1 March; quote in El Sol, 10 March). The response of the
Spanish Employers’ Federation was typical when it declared that the government “pays more
attention to the extreme elements than to the conscientious citizens of good sense” ( Labor , 28
March 1936). The many worker demonstrations after the election were nothing, however,
compared to the wave of strikes and farm occupations of the spring and summer. From May to
mid-July 1936, there were 719 industrial strikes, more than the total for any previous year
(Malefakis, 1970:371 n. 31).
The extreme left always encouraged and often directed the widespread labor militance.
“Forward and seize!...The Azaña government will back us up” ( New York Times, 16 March)--this
quotation distills the advice the radicals gave to the Spanish masses. The government did indeed
“back up” the workers. On March 3 1936, for example, a mass occupation of farms began that
came to involve tens of thousands of peasants. The government responded by eliminating
virtually all restrictions on agrarian reform in a desperate effort at appeasement. Unwilling to
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use force to dislodge the militants, it instead legalized the seizures (Malefakis, 1970:368).
Indeed, the Minister of Agriculture declared the pace of agrarian reforms “will not be detained,
on the contrary, it will pick up speed” ( El Sol, 14 April 1936). Politically, he could do little else.
The entire premise of the Popular Front was a link between the moderate and extreme left. In
other circumstances, given the danger from the right and the army, one would expect the
government to crush the extremists. There was no repression because Azaña needed the votes of
the far left. His “policy had become predicated on alliance with proto-revolutionary activity”
(Payne, 1993:363; see also Malefakis, 1970:375). By the end of the summer, the policies of the
Popular Front were, in the words of El Financiero (1 July 1936), nothing more than “the
translation of the republicans’ notorious concessions to the marxists into legal formulas.” This
was precisely the dynamic that the armed opponents of the regime had vociferously warned
against.
The institutional inducements the Chilean government faced can also account for many of
the otherwise apparently irrational decisions it took. The centrist forces in Unidad Popular (i.e.,
the Communists and the reformist faction of the Socialists that Allende led) encountered within
its own coalition parties, factions within parties and extra-parliamentary groups that rejected a
democratic transition to socialism. Among the radicals were many members of the Socialist
Party, the Movement of Unity Popular Action (MAPU), and the Movement of the Revolutionary
Left (MIR). Members of the MIR and MAPU were not exceedingly numerous or powerful.
Their loud and sometimes violent actions, however, often expressed many of the sentiments of
the more important and influential revolutionary elements in, for example, Allende’s own
Socialist party. These extremists mobilized the masses for occupation of farms and factories,
greatly reduced the credibility of the government’s commitment to legalism, and put constant
pressure on the moderates to abandon incrementalism. The left frontier of the U.P. did not have
a clear border, and no one was ever certain which group of revolutionaries reflected government
policy and which were outside the pale. Indeed, Allende was in a sense hostage to the far left.
In an electoral agreement of 1970, he had pledged to consult continually all the parties and
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movements in the coalition. Once the U.P. was in power, this had the effect of giving the far left
a veto on, for example, a moderation of government policies in order to obtain centrist parties’
political support (Sigmund, 1977:90; 277; Davis, 1984:56; 404). Allende was not as enthusiastic
as some of his supporters about takeovers of farms and factories. Yet even the moderate
components of Unidad Popular recognized that their central aims of nationalization of industry
and agrarian reform would likely fail unless the workers and peasants took the initiative (see
quotes in Allende, 1973:30-31; Stallings, 1978:128; and Zammit, 1973:261). This political
dependence helped lead to government acquiescence in direct action from below. In the first 18
months of the UP regime alone, for example, 1,700 land seizures took place, often with the
encouragement of government officials (Loveman, 1976:266).
Facing a recalcitrant legislature, to effect agrarian reform and nationalizations the
government used laws dating from the 1930s that allowed takeovers of firms during labor
disputes. Use of such legislation gave radicals incentives to encourage labor militance in order
to provoke government intervention and control of firms (Valenzuela, 1978:62-3). Indeed, such
popular pressures in the countryside and factories were often a more important cause of state
intervention than government intent (DeVylder, 1976:138; Nove, 1976:56). The administration
allowed the masses to engage in direct action because it faced an unpleasant choice: abandon its
program and admit the failure of a gradualist transition to socialism--and thereby lose electoral
support to the far left--or go forward with its help and that of the workers. The U.P. responded to
political inducements and took a course of action that it realized would substantially antagonize
its opponents. Despite the right’s repeated warnings not to step outside constitutional channels,
the U.P. circumvented the resistant Congress. Yet to this point we can view moderate
government leaders as trying to avoid both a showdown with their rightist enemies and a loss of
support from their leftist allies.
Reliance on the political support of the revolutionaries led Azaña and Allende to cross the
line in the sand their opponents had drawn. It was a perilous course of action, but one explicable
in terms of rational political choices. There is a great difference between the Spanish and
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Chilean governments’ first stages and the last months of their rule, however. The circumstances
in both periods were similarly conducive to rational choices--according to Green and Shapiro’s
schema--and the political incentives remained the same. Yet in their final days, Azaña and
Allende faced the choice of either violently repressing their followers and allies or hastening
civil war. One cannot define as rational their selection of the latter option.
3.2 At the brink.
As the end of democracy approached, the choices remained obvious and uncomplicated,
if difficult, and it was clearer than ever that the governments were confronting the highest
possible stakes. Even more than in the initial period of their rule, however, the Popular Front
and the U.P. received clear feedback from which they learned that their policies were
unacceptable to the right; I will concentrate below on this dynamic. An important aspect of
those situations conducive to rationality is the ability of decisionmakers to learn from their
previous choices. If this opportunity does not exist, actors have little to guide them, and
observers should not expect rational action. In Spain and Chile, the moderates had the
opportunity to learn and adapt based on their opponents’ responses to governmental decisions. It
became abundantly apparent that only by acquiescing in the militaries’ demands could the
administrations avoid insurrection. Yet while politicians learned what they needed to know
about the consequences of their actions, they did not use this information to try to save
themselves or democratic institutions.
In the final year of its rule, the U.P. was not working in the dark: Allende was aware of
which policies would improve his relations with the army and thus lessen the odds of a coup
(Alexander, 1978:309). The government received clear responses from the armed forces, which
repeatedly asked Allende to change his political course and control the far left (Davis, 1985:165-
66). The moderate leaders of the U.P. did not choose to heed these warnings, and took measures
its opponents declared to be intransigent and revolutionary. This dynamic began after the
inconclusive elections of March 1973, when the armed forces presented Allende with 14
conditions for further support. They included a clarification of firms to be placed under state
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control, the release of some businesses recently expropriated, and the disarming of leftist
paramilitary groups (Davis, 1985:146). Allende refused, and the military representatives left the
cabinet, whereupon Allende requisitioned 43 additional businesses, defying the comptroller-
general who had classified this action as illegal (Falcoff, 1989:280). The warnings to the
government were not all private: in May 1973 began open declarations in the press of the danger
of civil war (Alexander, 1978:312). As the country slid towards armed conflict, in July the
Christian Democrats called for regulation of expropriation policies, the return of many factories
under state control, and increased efforts to disarm civilians. The government declined this
course; in August, the military tried again to get Allende to come to an accord with the PDC,
making clear that “such an agreement, including a settlement of the strikes, could forestall a
coup” (Davis, 1985:201). There would be war if the U.P. did not drastically alter its policies and
violently repress its followers. The government had the information it needed in order to make
the choice to avoid military insurrection.
I have argued that one can explain Allende’s initial policies in terms of rational responses
to political incentives. Yet within the context of RCT we cannot account for his unwillingness to
take all steps possible to avoid a coup in the last months of the government. The U.P.’s desire to
maintain the votes of its political allies cannot explain this refusal. While the support of the far
left was still contingent upon the government’s uncompromising line, a rational politician would
have broken with key allies to avoid civil war. Uppermost in Allende’s mind seems to have been
his historical legacy, not the dangers he and his government faced,. According to one of his
interviewers, “he was determined not to tarnish the image which he wanted to leave to history”
(quoted in Sigmund, 1977:230). Allende would not “be a Gonzalez Videla” (Alexander,
1978:143). This referred to a Chilean Radical president elected in 1946 with Communist
support, who later outlawed the party, instituted severely repressive measures and relied on
centrist and rightist forces to continue governing. No Chilean leftist had forgotten Gonzalez’
betrayal (Davis, 1984:51).
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Such motivations also seemed to play a crucial role in Spain, where the government faced
quite similar conditions for the avoidance of civil war. Beginning in April 1936, there were talks
aimed at reducing tensions by forming a broadly based government that would end the power of
the leftist militias and the “anarchy” in the countryside. Indalecio Prieto, a Socialist moderate,
was the most likely candidate to undertake the very difficult task of marshaling such a coalition,
but he refused. Two factors seemed to have influenced him in this decision. First, Prieto
recognized that the question of support for a bipartisan administration would split the Socialist
party. In addition, he was concerned about possible historical judgments, and shied from playing
the role of a “Spanish Briand” (Payne, 1993:324; Jackson, 1965:208-9). Briand, despite making
a career as a labor lawyer, crushed a strike in 1910 by arresting and drafting strikers into the
army. This reference to the French parliamentarian closely parallels Allende’s preoccupation
with Gonzalez Videla.
This response is puzzling given the context. As in Chile, the government operated in
those circumstances Green and Shapiro argue are conducive to rational choices. As in the outset
of their rule, there were clear, uncomplicated options and high stakes. To these circumstances
we can add consistent and constant feedback from their opponents and others regarding the
government’s previous decisions. In the late spring of 1936, the chaotic situation in the Spanish
countryside and many towns grew worse and the dangers of war increased. Moderate political
figures repeatedly warned of the inevitable violent outcome if the government did not quash
social unrest and disarm extremists, but the Popular Front proceeded on its course. In May, for
example, the National Republican Party proposed formation of a new government dedicated to
repression of revolutionary violence, disarmament, and the prohibition of paramilitary groups.
The National Republicans further stated that if the proposed government did not receive
parliamentary support, it should suspend the Cortes in conformity with the constitution. These
measures were unacceptable to the Socialists, and Azaña’s government, unwilling to split the
Popular Front, rejected them (Jackson, 1965:216-17; Payne, 1993:345-6). Later that month, after
Azaña’s election to the presidency, the new Prime Minister Casares Quiroga attacked
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conservative politicians and declared that in order to placate the revolutionaries he would
implement the Popular Front program more quickly (Rivas, 1976:233). Far from heeding the
warnings and learning from its mistakes, the government declared it would move even farther to
the left.
By June, the situation had deteriorated substantially. One financial journal (Vida
Económica, 30 June 1936) summed up the atmosphere thus: “neither the Government, nor the
Parliament, nor the Popular Front mean absolutely anything. They don't rule. They who rule are
those who inspire inconceivable strikes [and violence].” In response to this atmosphere, there
were open calls in the Cortes for military insurrection. The leader of the monarchists, for
example, denounced those in the Army who “would not be willing to rise up for Spain against
anarchy” ( Diario de las Sesiones de las Cortes, 16 June 1936). There could have been no clearer
signal to the government that the end was approaching. In a final gesture, hoping to avoid the
looming war, one centrist politician called for a “national republican dictatorship,” with support
from both the left and the right (Bolloten, 1979:35-36; Payne, 1993:350). Again, however, the
goal of party unity made such a course impossible (Jackson, 1965:216-17; Robinson, 1970:263).
Maura (quoted in Bolloten, 1979:36) summarized the stakes, of which all were aware. Either the
politicians “decide to subordinate their party interests to the supreme interests of the regime...or
they resign themselves to watching it die in the agonies of a bloody civil war.” Azaña and other
leftist moderates had learned which were the policies that would satisfy their opponents, yet they
were unwilling to take the drastic, violent measures that might have prevented military rebellion.
During their final days in power, Spanish and Chilean politicians seemed irrationally
motivated by party loyalty and their place in history, even though they operated under those
conditions argued to be conducive to rational action. First, the stakes were exceedingly high: the
government leaders knew that they risked the end of democratic institutions, massive violence,
and consequently great personal danger. Second, it is reasonable, I believe, to assume that the
ruling politicians possessed the ordered and fixed preferences of remaining alive and remaining
in office. Third, they confronted clear and limited choices: tolerate “direct action” by the
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working masses and the far left, or violently repress these groups. Fourth, the circumstances
were not terribly complex; actors faced a simple if difficult choice. Finally, they did have the
opportunity to learn from previous decisions and adapt: there was considerable warning that the
governments’ actions were heightening the military’s hostility, and the consequent danger of
civil war.
The preceding has focused on the politicians’ failures to avert disastrous military attack.
Yet perhaps the Spanish and Chilean militaries would have rebelled regardless of government
policy; perhaps their hostility made conflict unavoidable. It is indeed tempting to place blame
exclusively on those who later established abhorrent dictatorships. We must recognize, however,
that although segments of each military reacted to the election of the left by plotting its
overthrow, the eventual institutional consensus on this issue was not inevitable. The Spanish and
Chilean militaries’ crucial decisions were influenced by the social and political conditions each
government presided over and helped shape.
In this context it is useful to examine the official explanations for the coups. The Spanish
and Chilean dictatorships’ accounts of their insurrections are often fabricated, yet they are
regardless quite informative: in them we see that the warnings issued upon the election of the
U.P. and Popular Front became the eventual justifications for revolt. The militaries and their
apologists argued that their rebellions were pre-emptive strikes designed to prevent an imminent
coup by the communists, which would have established, in conjunction with foreign powers, a
totalitarian system (Chile. Secretaria General de Gobierno, 1974; Cierva, 1967:299). These
fictions emphasize the armed forces’ hatred and suspicion of the extreme left. As we have seen,
they had consistently warned of the dangers posed by the revolutionaries, and their official
justifications for the destruction of democracy indicate an intense preoccupation with this
perceived threat. The official apologias also assert that the military was forced to overthrow an
“illegal” government in order to save the nation from “chaos.” These are echoes of the original
rightist warnings to the newly elected leftist governments to maintain the letter of the law and
control their followers and allies. In the Manifesto of Francisco Franco (reprinted in Cierva,
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1967:660), for example, Franco declares “anarchy reigns in the majority of the countryside and
towns; government authorities preside over, when they do not foment, the revolts. . .
Revolutionary strikes of all types paralyze the life of the country, ruining and destroying the
sources of wealth.” The Francoists complained of an “illegal” government that had suspended
the constitution--which was in “total eclipse”--and accused the government of tolerating
“revolutionary anarchy” (quoted in Cierva, 1967:660, 695; see also Jackson, 1965:233).
Likewise in Chile, General Pinochet denounced “the illegitimate and anarchic [U.P.]
government...The economic life of the country was in total disorder and prostration; the
productive, labor and commercial activities were suffering the most complete anarchy”
(Pinochet, 1983:19). The Chilean junta stated that the Armed Forces had overthrown “an
unlawful government,” and emphasized that the dictatorship would not tolerate more “disorder
or anarchy” (Chile. Junta del Gobierno, 1974:33, 36; see also Chile. Secretaria General de
Gobierno, 1974:79-97 and passim). In the official justifications for the Spanish and Chilean
military dictatorships, we see the same themes as in their warnings to the Popular Front and U.P:
the extreme left, social “disorder” and strict legality. While one cannot know if the Popular
Front and the U.P. could have avoided insurrection, the militaries’ often fanciful defense of their
decisions indicate that they acted because their warnings were not adequately heeded.
4.0 ASSESSMENTS.
Can we explain in rational-choice terms the Spanish and Chilean leaders’ refusal in the
last stages of their rule to abandon ideology in order to avoid civil war? One could, perhaps,
argue that they wished to “maximize” a type of historical legacy, and thus acted “rationally.”
This is tautological, however: we can account for all behavior in terms of maximization of
something, and if rationality is simply maximization, all behavior is rational. A more promising
line of reasoning would center on the institutional constraints the politicians faced; I used such
an account to explain in rational-choice terms the initial decisions of each government. Yet we
have seen that this explanation can account for only a limited number of the key political
decisions. Even with a reasonable chance of winning a civil war--such as existed in Spain-- a
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rational politician would not risk life and limb when the option of fleeing the country was
available.6
Finally, the available evidence indicates that other factors--party loyalty, concern for
their followers, and an eye for their historical legacy--more convincingly explain the actions of
Spanish and Chilean politicians.
There are two plausible explanations why Azaña and Allende were unlikely to make
rational decisions under the situations they confronted. First, the politicians faced the threat of
military attack, which added a high degree of tension not present at the outset of their rule. As
Holsti (1979) found in regard to international relations, such stress impairs the rationality of
decisionmakers. Second, the decisions in the later stages of their administrations were not of the
same type as those Azaña and Allende had made all their political lives. Instead of the
accustomed political logrolling, these leaders confronted credible threats by armed opponents.
Trying to avoid being pushed into civil war is not like trading votes, and the moderates of both
governments were entirely unfamiliar with the former circumstance. That is, during these final
stages of the Popular Front and Unidad Popular , there was a complete absence of the
“repetition” and “choices that repeat themselves” that Kelley (1995:101) and Taylor (1995:226)
argue are conducive to rational choices. Had the Spanish and Chilean politicians more
experience with the sort of situation in which they found themselves, they might have behaved in
a more rational manner. In any case, the conditions that Green and Shapiro propose are clearly
insufficient to explain the Spanish and Chilean governments’ puzzling decisions. One of the
findings of this paper, therefore, is that Green and Shapiro’s schema could usefully be
supplemented with the condition of repetition Kelley and Taylor identify. Further research is
necessary, of course, to determine whether “choices that repeat themselves” are indeed a
necessary component of the circumstances under which RCT can be an effective explanatory
tool.
5.0 CONCLUSION
The aim of theory should be explanation that advances knowledge; RCT is currently
under considerable criticism in this regard. Critics have charged that RCT practitioners either
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arbitrarily restrict its explanatory domain (by applying their models “wherever they seem to
work”), or resort to defining all behavior as maximization of some sort. More convincing
application of rational-choice explanations necessarily implies the possibility of their
falsification, and to this end, we must define rational behavior and state where RCT should hold.
Several scholars have begun to map the theoretical circumstances of a “segmented
universalism,” rejecting the universalist claim that actors make choices the same way in all
circumstances, but not abandoning use of RCT as an explanatory tool. Evaluations of the
different accounts within this approach have been lacking, however. In this paper I have
provided a minimalist definition of rationality, delineated those areas in the cases under
consideration where one can explain behavior in terms of rational choices given institutional
constraints, and suggested reasons that help account for those situations where this course is
untenable. In that regard, the assessments this paper offers concerning the boundaries of a
“segmented universalism” should be useful in future attempts to employ RCT in explaining
empirical phenomena.
ENDNOTES
1An earlier draft of this article was delivered at the 1996 Western Political Science
Association meeting, San Francisco, March 14-16. For their comments and criticisms, I thank
anonymous reviewers, John Keeler, Margaret Levi, Richard Sherman and Cheryl Wheeler.
2 To placate the revolutionary members of the U.P., the electoral program asserted that
these measures would “initiate” the movement to socialism. This apparently radical language
should be seen in its political context. The centrist Christian-Democratic Party, for example,
also called for the replacement of capitalism; and even the distinctly rightist National Party was
unwilling to defend the capitalist system as such (Sigmund, 1977:95; Roxborough, 1976:207).
3There were differences, of course, between and within the Spanish and Chilean
militaries. Both were divided on different issues, and the Spanish armed forces were generally
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more hostile to democracy than their Chilean counterparts. For stylistic purposes I will speak of
both institutions as unified wholes.
4 In my analysis of conservative and rightist views during the Spanish Popular Front, I
employ, among other sources, the quite under-explored Second Republic financial press and
military periodicals (cf. Alpert, 1989; Bahamonde and Toro, 1981).
5Translations from the Spanish are by the author.
6Note that my minimal definition of rational action is not so restrictive as to exclude all
decisions to wage war. If the political support were very high, odds of success overwhelming
and politicians faced no likely physical danger, war could be a rational choice. In the Spanish
and Chilean cases, however, the politicians knew that the odds of victory were even at best (in
Spain), and that war would place them at significant risk.