balingian, assessment unit 37020102 assessment …...undiscovered resources largest undiscovered...
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Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field
MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)
(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean
Oil Fields 1 130 476 1,103 529 267 1,013 2,568 1,163 15 59 162 70 23 63 155 72
Gas Fields 6 320 966 2,062 1,054 13 41 96 46 58 143 359 166
Total 1.00 130 476 1,103 529 588 1,979 4,630 2,217 28 100 258 116
1.00
Balingian, Assessment Unit 37020102Assessment Results Summary
[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect
positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]
Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)
37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,500.00 MMBOEntire range is from 39.49 to 1,900.19 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.37
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 529.49Median 476.18Mode ---Standard Deviation 307.00Variance 94,248.05Skewness 0.67Kurtosis 2.78Coefficient of Variability 0.58Range Minimum 39.49Range Maximum 1,900.19Range Width 1,860.70Mean Standard Error 1.37
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.006
.011
.017
.023
0
281.2
562.5
843.7
1125
0.00 375.00 750.00 1,125.00 1,500.00
50,000 Trials 74 Outliers
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 39.49
95% 129.6690% 170.7485% 205.5780% 240.8575% 277.1170% 314.7665% 351.4360% 391.2455% 432.4350% 476.1845% 521.4240% 568.9435% 620.8630% 675.9125% 733.9020% 803.5915% 881.0510% 973.64
5% 1,103.090% 1,900.19
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 3,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 66.51 to 5,517.28 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 3.26
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,163.10Median 1,012.81Mode ---Standard Deviation 728.16Variance 530,215.05Skewness 0.93Kurtosis 3.60Coefficient of Variability 0.63Range Minimum 66.51Range Maximum 5,517.28Range Width 5,450.77Mean Standard Error 3.26
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
296.2
592.5
888.7
1185
0.00 875.00 1,750.00 2,625.00 3,500.00
50,000 Trials 250 Outliers
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 66.51
95% 267.4690% 353.8485% 430.4180% 506.8775% 584.9370% 663.2565% 742.3560% 828.3455% 920.6450% 1,012.8145% 1,114.4540% 1,221.2535% 1,334.4530% 1,459.7725% 1,596.2220% 1,758.3015% 1,951.8110% 2,194.57
5% 2,567.870% 5,517.28
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 200.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 3.14 to 360.85 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.21
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 69.87Median 59.06Mode ---Standard Deviation 46.83Variance 2,192.90Skewness 1.18Kurtosis 4.55Coefficient of Variability 0.67Range Minimum 3.14Range Maximum 360.85Range Width 357.71Mean Standard Error 0.21
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.006
.011
.017
.023
0
281.2
562.5
843.7
1125
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00
50,000 Trials 811 Outliers
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 3.14
95% 15.0490% 20.1285% 24.6780% 29.2675% 33.7470% 38.4465% 43.2660% 48.3955% 53.5850% 59.0645% 65.0240% 71.5335% 78.4430% 86.3525% 95.4020% 105.3615% 118.1110% 134.88
5% 161.890% 360.85
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 200.00 MMBOEntire range is from 6.04 to 200.00 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.18
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 72.29Median 62.98Mode ---Standard Deviation 39.81Variance 1,584.82Skewness 0.96Kurtosis 3.43Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 6.04Range Maximum 200.00Range Width 193.96Mean Standard Error 0.18
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.007
.013
.020
.026
0
327
654
981
1308
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00
50,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 6.04
95% 23.1090% 29.2085% 34.1080% 38.4175% 42.4270% 46.3965% 50.4160% 54.3955% 58.5450% 62.9845% 68.0540% 73.2235% 79.1230% 85.7825% 93.5520% 103.0915% 115.0810% 131.42
5% 155.040% 200.00
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 66.47 to 3,525.96 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 2.44
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,054.30Median 966.19Mode ---Standard Deviation 544.64Variance 296,633.65Skewness 0.65Kurtosis 2.91Coefficient of Variability 0.52Range Minimum 66.47Range Maximum 3,525.96Range Width 3,459.49Mean Standard Error 2.44
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.005
.010
.015
.020
0
255.5
511
766.5
1022
0.00 625.00 1,250.00 1,875.00 2,500.00
50,000 Trials 460 Outliers
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 66.47
95% 320.1490% 414.4185% 488.6380% 556.4775% 622.6970% 688.7765% 752.5360% 822.0955% 893.3150% 966.1945% 1,046.1140% 1,127.5135% 1,216.4730% 1,310.8025% 1,412.4120% 1,531.3015% 1,668.0010% 1,829.01
5% 2,061.690% 3,525.96
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 120.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 2.04 to 200.81 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.12
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 46.33Median 41.35Mode ---Standard Deviation 26.18Variance 685.23Skewness 0.92Kurtosis 3.76Coefficient of Variability 0.56Range Minimum 2.04Range Maximum 200.81Range Width 198.77Mean Standard Error 0.12
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.006
.011
.017
.022
0
275
550
825
1100
0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00
50,000 Trials 580 Outliers
Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 2.04
95% 13.1190% 17.0785% 20.2980% 23.2975% 26.0570% 28.9965% 31.9560% 34.8755% 38.0450% 41.3545% 44.7640% 48.6135% 52.5930% 56.9725% 61.7520% 67.3215% 74.0610% 82.94
5% 96.390% 200.81
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Gas Field
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 450.00 BCFGEntire range is from 12.43 to 499.75 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.41
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 165.52Median 143.07Mode ---Standard Deviation 91.72Variance 8,412.28Skewness 1.19Kurtosis 4.20Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 12.43Range Maximum 499.75Range Width 487.32Mean Standard Error 0.41
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.007
.013
.020
.027
0
335.7
671.5
1343
0.00 112.50 225.00 337.50 450.00
50,000 Trials 592 Outliers
Forecast: Largest Gas Field
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 12.43
95% 57.6490% 70.6485% 80.8680% 89.7975% 98.4870% 106.9465% 115.7460% 124.6855% 133.6650% 143.0745% 153.3940% 164.8435% 177.5330% 191.9725% 209.5820% 230.2715% 256.8910% 295.65
5% 359.190% 499.75
End of Forecast
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Assumptions
Assumption: Number of Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 10Likeliest 15Maximum 140
Selected range is from 10 to 140Mean value in simulation was 55
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 8.90 9.9Standard Deviation 17.67 17.67
Selected range is from 0.00 to 199.00 1.00 to 200.00Mean value in simulation was 8.50 9.5
10 43 75 108 140
Number of Oil Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)
Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 1,100.00Likeliest 2,200.00Maximum 3,300.00
Selected range is from 1,100.00 to 3,300.00Mean value in simulation was 2,195.92
0.09 44.47 88.84 133.22 177.60
Sizes of Oil Fields
1,100.00 1,650.00 2,200.00 2,750.00 3,300.00
GOR in Oil Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 30.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 90.00
Selected range is from 30.00 to 90.00Mean value in simulation was 60.06
Assumption: Number of Gas Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 5Likeliest 17Maximum 75
Selected range is from 5 to 75Mean value in simulation was 32
30.00 45.00 60.00 75.00 90.00
LGR in Oil Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)
Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 27.22 33.22Standard Deviation 45.39 45.39
Selected range is from 0.00 to 494.00 6.00 to 500.00Mean value in simulation was 26.32 32.32
5 23 40 58 75
Number of Gas Fields
0.44 111.65 222.87 334.08 445.30
Sizes of Gas Fields
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37020102Balingian
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 22.00Likeliest 44.00Maximum 66.00
Selected range is from 22.00 to 66.00Mean value in simulation was 43.95
End of Assumptions
Simulation started on 8/23/99 at 9:01:38Simulation stopped on 8/23/99 at 9:54:05
22.00 33.00 44.00 55.00 66.00
LGR in Gas Fields
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