BALTIC PORTS CONFERENCE Shaping the port industry of tomorrow

Trelleborg/Sweden, 6-8.09.2017

Trends in shipping and port sectors

Impact of re-industrialization in

Europe

DSc, PhD, Maciej Matczak

Associate Professor

Vice-Dean for Cooperation and Development

Gdynia Maritime University

Fundamental mission of Gdynia Maritime University is to educate

officers for merchant shipping and managers for the shore-based

companies of maritime industries, according to national, European

and world standards of education

DEPARTMENT OF LOGISTICS AND

TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMODITY SCIENCE AND

QUALITY MANAGEMENT

DEPARTMENT OF SERVICES

ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION

SYSTEMS

DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL

COMMODITY SCIENCE AND CHEMISTRY

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND

ECONOMIC POLICY

Faculty of Enteprenuership and Quality Science DEPARTMENTS

Faculty of Entrepreneurship and Quality Science EDUCATIONAL SERVICE AND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

INNOVATIVE ECONOMY

Transport, Logistics & Forwarding Financial Management and Accounting Tourism and Consumption Management and ICT solutions

QUALITY SCIENCE

Cargo Supervising and Assessment Food Storage & Processing Environment Protection Quality Analysis of Commodities Nutrition & Dietetics

Schedule

Global and regional economy as the engine for maritime

transport development macroeconomics trends

Global seaborne trade & The Baltics maritmie ports

performance market trends

Trends for logistics & transport sector implications for

maritime transport and port sector

Re-industrialization for Europe

GDP growth vs. Trade development World Trade Statistical Review 2017

Global trade growth by regions (2012-2016) World Trade Statistical Review 2017

World merchandise trade value 2006-2016

GDP development of Baltic countries

1,9% 1,8%

3,2% 2,7%

2,3% 2,0% 1,9% 1,9% 2,1%

1,7%

-0,2%

-4,0%

-3,0%

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

2015

2016

Value & volume trade growth in the EU Baltic

Sea Region 2016

0,8% 1,2% 0,7%

2,0%

-6,0%

-4,0%

-2,0%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

Value Volume Value Volume

EXPORT IMPORT

DENMARK

ESTONIA

FINLAND

GERMANY

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

POLAND

SWEDEN

BSR (EU)

Global seaborne trade 2005-2016 [million tonnes]

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Main bulk Containers Oil and gas Other

Development of the Baltics maritime ports

turnover 2004-2016

2,5% 4,9%

1,9%

-0,6%

-11,9%

9,9%

3,7%

-3,1% -1,9% -0,9% -1,1%

0,5%

18,1%

4,6%

9,7%

6,4%

-3,7%

15,7%

5,5%

11,6%

4,2% 3,5% 3,3% 2,6%

-15,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

700,0

800,0

900,0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BSR UE [m tons] Russia: Baltic [m tons] BSR UE (growth) Russia: Baltic (growth)

Annual changes of turnover of the Baltics

maritime ports in year 2016

-9,3%

-3,3%

-0,5%

0,3%

1,0%

1,7%

2,6%

4,7%

7,8%

-12,0% -10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0%

Latvia

Estonia

Germany: Baltic Sea (e)

Denmark

Sweden (e)

Finland

Russia: Baltic

Poland

Lithuania

Top 15 Baltic seaports 1H 2017

13,5%

-3,6%

7,5%

2,9% 3,6% 2,3%

-4,1% -0,7%

7,0%

23,0%

-0,3%

7,5%

-7,1%

9,9%

0,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

Turnover 1H 2017 [mln ton] Growth [%]

The Baltics container traffic 2004-2016

4,7

1

5,3

9

6,4

4 7,5

7

7,9

9

5,8

2

7,3

2

8,7

6

9,3

8

9,7

0

9,7

2

8,5

9

9,0

6

16,2% 14,4%

19,6% 17,4%

5,6%

-27,2%

25,9%

19,7%

7,1% 3,3%

0,3%

-11,7%

5,5%

-30,0%

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Container traffic (m TEU) Dynamics (%)

Top 10 container ports on the Baltic Sea 1H 2017

7,8% 6,7%

-6,0%

7,7%

-22,0%

3,6% 1,4%

14,0%

2,0%

33,7%

-30,0%

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

Turnover 1H 2017 [TEU] Growth [%]

Ro-ro traffic in maritime ports of the Baltic Sea

region [thou. tonnes]

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sweden

Finland

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Germany Baltic

Denmark

LOGISTICS TRENDS

LOGISTICS BUREAU CERASIS Entrepreneur INDIA Trend Radar DHL: Socio-economic

Trend Radar DHL: Technological

Warehouse Robotics in the Supply Chain

Autonomous Road Transportation

The Blurred Line Between Logistics and Technology Services

The Appeal of Supply Chain Social Responsibility

The Race for the Last Mile

The Rise of the Virtual Logistics Team

Globalization Will Become More Important in Everyday Decisions

Product Life Cycles Will Grow Shorter and More Complex

Autonomous Trucks Will Drive Logistics Forward

Consumer Demand Will Shape Logistics Services

Organizations Will Streamline Reverse Logistics

The Amazon Barbell Will Gain Power

Intelligent and Data-Driven Supply Chains

Consumer Centric

Internet-of-Things

Augmented Reality

Efficient Returns Management

Autonomous Vehicles and Drones for delivery

Anticipatory logistics

Batch Size One

Convenience Logistics

De-stressing the Supply Chain

Fair & Responsible Logistics

Grey Power Logistics

Logistics Marketplaces

Multi-purpose Networks

Omni-channel Logistics

On-demand Delivery

Shareconomy Logistics

Smart Energy Logistics

Super grid Logistics

Tube Logistics

3D Printing

Augmented Reality

Big Data

Bionic Enhancement

Cloud Logistics

Digital Identifiers

Internet of Things

Low-cost Sensor Technology

Robotics & Automation

Self-driving Vehicles

Self-learning Systems

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Logistics trends important for the maritme

port sector

Robotics and autonomous transportation solution and/or

challenge for maritime ports

Barbell effect & race for the last mile market

concentration by alliances, mergers & acquisitions or

vertical integration

Intelligent and data driven supply chain digitalisation of

seaports and its inclusion

in the supply chain system

Anticipatory, consumer centric, on-demand and

convenience logistics decrease of distance between the

final manufacturing and customer re-industrialisation

Increased volatility of demand and sustain but uneven

global recovery over-capacity, freight rates at the lowest,

new external factors (e.g. Donald Trump and the Made in

America Supply Chain)

Re-industrialisation of Europe

Headline goal (2012): 20% share in GDP of manufacturing

industry by 2020

EC six strategic priority areas:

1) advanced processing,

2) advanced generic technologies,

3) transport and clean vehicles,

4) bio products,

5) sustainable industrial policy, construction and materials,

6) smart grids,

Challenges: energy prices, environmental targets, global

competition

EU support policies for industrial development

03.2011 An Industrial Policy for the Globalization Era,

06.2012 A Growth and Jobs Pact

10.2012 A Stronger European Industry for Growth and Economic Recovery

07.2013 A Stronger European Industry for Growth and Economic Recovery

01.2014 For a European industrial renaissance

02.2014 Industrial Strategy in Europe, Competitiveness and Growth

Re-industrialisation of Europe

14,0%

15,0%

16,0%

17,0%

18,0%

19,0%

20,0%

21,0%

22,0%

23,0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BSR UE BSR UE (excl. Germany) EU 28 Re-industrialization

Level of industrialisation of the BSR countries

[share in GDP of manufacturing industry]

16,1% 15,5%

22,9%

15,7%

12,5%

19,0% 20,4%

16,9% 16,5%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

EuropeanUnion

Denmark Germany Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Finland Sweden

2012 2016

Thank you!

Maciej Matczak m.matczak@wpit.am.gdynia.pl