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Baltic Sea Labour Networko
International TripartiteMid-Term ConferenceVilnius, Lithuania on 11 May 2010
Social Dialogue in the Baltic StatesCharles Woolfson|Linköping University, Sweden
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Themes
Collective bargaining/trade unions
Contours of crisis in the Baltic States
The dilemma - ‚voice‘ or ‚exit‘?
Conclusions for social dialogue
2
*organi-sation‘s logo*
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Density of employer organisations in EU
3
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Collective bargaining coverage in EU
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Trade union membership in Baltic States
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Scale of the crisis in Baltics
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Percentage change in GDP in 2009 compared with the same quarter of 2008
1qtr 2qtr 3qtr 4qtr
Estonia -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -9.5
Latvia -18.5 -17.0 -19.2 -17.1
Lithuania -15.3 -16.6 -14.7 -13.2
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Volume of retail trade % change compared with the same month of the previous year
Sept
09
Oct
09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Estonia -21.3 -18.6 -21.2 -16.0 -9.0 -7.2
Latvia -30.5 -28.6 -30.1 -30.1 -16.0 -13.3
Lithuania -25.6 -24.7 -27.5 -26.7 -16.8 -17.1
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Household final consumption expenditure 2009 compared to the same quarter of 2008
1qtr 2qtr 3qtr 4qtr
Estonia -16.5 -19.4 -19.9 -18.2
Latvia -18.3 -23.5 -25.6 -21.7
Lithuania -14.5 -16.9 -17.7 -19.0
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Unemployment rates January 2010 seasonally adjusted
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
IMF Global Economic Outlook April 2010
• Economies that faced the crisis with
unsustainable domestic booms that had
fueled excessively large current account deficits
(Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania) and those with
vulnerable private or public sector balance
sheets (Hungary, Romania, Baltics) are
expected to recover more slowly.
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
The dilemma - ‚voice‘ or ‚exit‘?
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Riga 13 January 2009
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
‘Voice’
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Vilnius 16 January 2009
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Anger
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Tears and teargas on Independence Square
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
‘Exit’
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Lithuania official migration statistics 2001-2009
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
7 253 7 086 11 032 15 165 15 571 12 602 13 853 17 015 15483
NB. 60% underestimate of true figure suggests that actual figures equal the peak post-EU accession surge.
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Conclusions
1.Human resources needed to sustain
recovery once global crisis ends
2.Trade unions are crucial in rebuilding
Baltic societies and economies
3.Without ‘voice’ there will be ‘exit’
4.Need for a renewal of social dialogue both
at the top and at the base of society
22
*Name Surname – Organisation**Title of Presentation* – BSLN mid-term conference May 11, 2010
Contact
23
Charles Wooolfson REMESO Linköping University, Campus Norrköping Holmentorget 10, Bomullsspinneriet SE-601 74, Sweden
email: [email protected]