bandarmologi workshop 2015 day one
TRANSCRIPT
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BANDARMOLOGI
WORKSHOP
“ Stock Market From Different Perspective “
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DISCLAIMER
PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP
Educating Retail Investor
Making Friend & Form Community
Sharpening Each Other
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DISCLAIMER
BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
• “Street Knowledge”
• Subjective Point Of View
• Secret Knowledge
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CHAPTER 1
DASAR ANALISA SAHAM
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
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GOOD COMPANY
Logical Thinking Analysis
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BAD COMPANY
Logical Thinking Analysis
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
LATE INFORMATION
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
BAD INFORMATION
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TOO COMPLICATED
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
HARD TO PROVE IN SHORT TERM
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
MARKET ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
BANYAK INDIKATOR YANG TERSEDIA
• Stochastic
• RSI
• MACD
• Bollinger Band
• Darvas Box
• Fibonacci
• „Kombinasi‟
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CONTOH KETIKA MENEMUKAN INDIKATOR YANG TEPAT
Analisa Technical dapat menganalisa
pola pergerakan harga.
Ketika Naik TA menyarankan Beli
Ketika Turun TA menyarankan Jual.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
MEMILIH INDICATOR YANG TEPAT
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LACK OF LOGICAL REASON
Analisa Technical sama seperti
melempar koin :
Selalu ada probabilitas, naik atau
turun, tanpa ada logika di
balik pergerakan harga tersebut.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
LACK OF LOGICAL REASON
7 x -- HEAD
3 x -- TAIL
Pertanyaannya seberapa banyak uang yang
berani anda pertaruhkan untuk menebak bahwa
lemparan yang ke 11 akan menghasilkan head?!
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PROBLEM
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEVER FAILS,
WE ARE !!
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MASALAH DALAM ANALISA SAHAM
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MENGGABUNGKAN TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
ANALISA GABUNGAN
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MENGGABUNGKAN TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
ANALISA GABUNGAN
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CHAPTER 2
DASAR PEMIKIRAN
BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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FOLLOW THE GIANT STRATEGY
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THE GIANT
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THE GIANT
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FOLLOWER
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THE GIANT
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FOLLOWER
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FOLLOW THE GIANT
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FOLLOW THE GIANT STRATEGY
ASUMSI DALAM
“FOLLOW THE GIANT”
STRATEGI
- GIANT memiliki informasi
terbaik.
- GIANT memiliki analisa paling
mendalam.
- GIANT memiliki strategi
paling baik.
- GIANT kekuatan untuk
menggerakan harga.
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BANDARMOLOGI :
“MARKET MAKER ACTION DISCOUNT
EVERYTHING”
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :
“MARKET ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING”
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CHAPTER 3
ANALISA BANDARMOLOGI
DALAM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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“I TOLD YOU PATTERN!”
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ANALISA CHART PATTERN”
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“I TOLD YOU” PATTERN
BANDARMOLOGI IN T. ANALYSIS
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CHART PATTERN = “I TOLD YOU PATTERN”
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“FALSE BANDARMOLOGI”
INDICATOR
• Beberapa Technical Analyst mencoba
menganalisa “Bandarmologi” dengan menggunakan
Technical Analysis.
• Sebenarnya yang dilakukan adalah memasukan
Volume ke dalam analisa mereka, bukan
menganalisa pergerakan Big Player.
BANDARMOLOGI IN T. ANALYSIS
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“FALSE BANDARMOLOGI” INDICATOR
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FALSE BANDARMOLOGI” INDICATOR – SUMBER DATA
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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“FALSE BANDARMOLOGI” INDICATOR – AKUMULASI OR
DISTRIBUSI
Akumulasi
or distribusi
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“FALSE BANDARMOLOGI” INDICATOR
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BANDARMOLOGI :
“MARKET MAKER ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING”
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :
“MARKET ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING”
“FALSE BANDARMOLOGI” INDICATOR - WHY?!!
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MASALAH DALAM ANALISA SAHAM
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BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
PENGGABUNGAN TECHNICAL DENGAN
BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
• Logical Reason
• Flexible and real time “fundamental”
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BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
PENGGABUNGAN FUNDAMENTAL
DENGAN BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
• Predicting news effect
• Scanning the rumor
• Fundamental Confirmation
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CHAPTER 3
MENDETEKSI KEBERADAAN BANDAR
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MARKET MAKER FOR FUNDAMENTALIST
MARKET MAKER FOR FUNDAMENTALIST
• Setiap saham berfundamental baik cepat atau lambat akan
digerakan oleh market maker.
• Setiap Market Maker punya valuasi terhadap sahamnya
masing-masing.
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CASE STUDY: IMAS
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MARKET MAKER FOR FUNDAMENTALIST
CASE STUDY: IMAS
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MARKET MAKER FOR FUNDAMENTALIST
CASE STUDY: IMAS
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MARKET MAKER FOR TECHNICALIST
Asumsi yang dipakai dalam Technical Analysis :
1. MARKET ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING
2. PRICE MOVE IN TREND
3. HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF
Market action discount everything, including market maker action.
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Apa pun yang market maker lakukan
di balik pergerakan saham ini,
mereka mengikuti pola yang bisa
dianalisa oleh Bollinger Band.
Hal ini menunjukan bahwa
Analisa Technical bisa menganalisa
pola pergerakan dari market maker.
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DETECTING MARKET MAKER
MARKET MAKER EXISTANCE
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DETECTING MARKET MAKER
Pertanyaan–pertanyaan yang mengungkap
keberadaan Market maker?!
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DETECTING MARKET MAKER
1. Siapa yang memasang antrian di
pagi hari ?!
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Siapa yang memasang antrian di pagi hari?
VS
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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Siapa yang memasang antrian di pagi hari?
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 440
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 445
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 450
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 480
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 460
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 465
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 470
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 490
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 495
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 500
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 510
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 520
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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ANTRIAN DI HARGA : 530
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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3. Siapa yang memasang order 1-2 lot dalam jumlah
ratusan order di saat yang berdekatan?
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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4. Siapa Yang Memasang Antrian Palsu Ketika Saham
Gorengan Sedang Naik ?
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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BAYU
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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9.40 9.48
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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5. Antrian dalam jumlah aneh
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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5. Mengapa saham bisa tiba-tiba “bergerak” atau
“tidur“ di hari yang sama?
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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Mengapa saham bisa tiba-tiba “bergerak” atau “tidur “
di hari yang sama?
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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DETAIL-DETAIL DALAM TRANSAKSI
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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CONTOH KASUS : CNKO
DETECTING MARKET MAKER
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CHAPTER 3
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
Fungsi market maker tradisional
1. Menjaga liquiditas dan nilai suatu saham.
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Fungsi market maker tradisional
2. Mengakumulasi sebuah saham.
Ex:
DANA PENSIUN A
Memberi Order ke MM A
Buy TLKM @ 2900 ( 500.000 lot)
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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Fungsi market maker tradisional
3. Mendistribusi sebuah saham.
Ex:
DANA PENSIUN B –
Memberi Order ke MM B
BBRI @ 10.000 ( 500.000 lot)
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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Pengembangan Fungsi Market Maker
1. Semakin banyaknya investor ritel.
2. Semakin mudahnya proses transaksi suatu saham.
3. Banyaknya saham tidur yang bisa “dimanfaatkan”
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MEMPELAJARI BANDARMOLOGI DARI “GELOMBANG CINTA”
Step-step Bandarmologi:
• Menguasai Pasokan Anturium
• Mempopulerkan Anturium
• Launching Anturium
• “Menggoreng” Anturium
• Kejatuhan Harga Anturium
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MEMPELAJARI BANDARMOLOGI DARI “GELOMBANG CINTA”
• Menguasai Pasokan Anturium
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MEMPELAJARI BANDARMOLOGI DARI “GELOMBANG CINTA”
• Mempopulerkan & Lauching Anturium
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MEMPELAJARI BANDARMOLOGI DARI “GELOMBANG CINTA”
• “Menggoreng” Nilai Anturium
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MEMPELAJARI BANDARMOLOGI DARI “GELOMBANG CINTA”
• Kejatuhan Harga
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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GELOMBANG CINTA DI PASAR MODAL
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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PRINSIP DASAR BANDARMOLOGI:
Hanya ada satu market maker yang menggerakan
suatu saham.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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1 MARKET MAKER VS „1.000‟ RETAIL INVESTOR
Stock Market Adalah Tempat Bertarungnya 1 Market Maker
dengan Ribuan Investor Retail
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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SYARAT MENJADI MARKET MAKER
MENGUASAI SUPPLY SAHAM (menghindari perang bandar)
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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PERANG BANDAR
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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9.40 9.48
SYARAT MENJADI MARKET MAKER
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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SYARAT MENJADI MARKET MAKER
MEMILIKI SARANA PROMOSI
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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SYARAT MENJADI MARKET MAKER
MEMILIKI INFRASTUCTURE UNTUK MENGAKUMULASI
ATAU MENDISTRIBUSIKAN SAHAM
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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TANAMAN HIAS vs SAHAM
Jumlahnya tidak diketahui &
dapat terus bertambah.
Jumlahnya diketahui dan
tidak dapat bertambah tanpa
persetujuan pemegang
saham.
Perdagangan tersebar di
seluruh Indonesia, tanpa
adanya kejelasan harga, dan
jumlah.
Perdagangan terpusat di BEI,
dengan harga yang sama,
jumlah yang dapat diketahui
publik.
Tidak memiliki nilai „riil‟
secara financial.
Memiliki nilai „riil‟ secara financial.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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TANAMAN HIAS vs SAHAM
Akibatnya :
Market maker Saham sering kali harus mengumpulkan
sahamnya kembali yang telah mereka jual ke publik jika mereka
memiliki rencana untuk melakukan aksi yang baru.
Oleh karena itu selalu ada proses akumulasi / distribusi yang
dilakukan oleh market maker.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
1. AKUMULASIAkumulasi adalah proses mengumpulkan saham yang
dilakukan oleh investor besar (market maker) dari para investor
kecil.
• Mulai dilakukan ketika kondisi market belum kondusif,
• Hampir pasti dilakukan ketika belum muncul berita-berita
yang mendukung kenaikan harga.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
1. AKUMULASI
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
2. DISTRIBUSIDistribusi adalah proses menjual saham yang dilakukan oleh
investor besar (market maker) kepada para investor kecil
• Dilakukan ketika kondisi market sudah terlalu kondusif
• Dilakukan ketika berbagai berita sudah muncul
• Target harga yang tinggi sudah beredar.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION2. DISTRIBUSI
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
3. MARK UP• Harga melonjak tinggi (biasa terjadi dalam 1 - 5 hari),
• Tidak disertai dengan akumulasi signifikan oleh
market maker.
• Bertujuan untuk mengangkat harga setinggi mungkin
• Harga semakin jauh dari modal akumulasi yang
dilakukan oleh market maker.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION3. MARK UP
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION3. MARK UP
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION3. MARK UP
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
3. MARK UP• Aksi ini juga dapat terjadi di masa bearish
• Untuk menjaga minat beli investor retail dengan
menimbulkan banyak sinyal rebound palsu.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
3. MARK UP
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
3. MARK UP
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
• Harga turun drastis (biasa terjadi dalam 1 - 5 hari)
• Tidak disertai dengan aksi distribusi yang signifikan
oleh market maker.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
• Biasa terjadi pada saat trend bearish sudah terbentuk
• Sering kali menjadi merupakan akhir dari trend bearish
• Juga sering terjadi di masa bullish, dengan tujuan mengusir
investor ritel, atau menurunkan modal akumulasi lanjutan.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
4. MARK DOWN
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION5. DO NOTHING
Terutama di saham-saham gorengan, aksi ini adalah aksi
yang paling sering dilakukan oleh market maker. Karena
Market Maker saham-saham gorengan memiliki banyak
koleksi saham.
Saham-saham yang tidak sedang “di bandari” akan
dibiarkan begitu saja, dan membiarkan investor ritel yang
nyangkut kehilangan kesabaran.
Hal ini bisa berlangsung berbulan-bulan – sampai bertahun
Tahun sampai ada catalyst baru untuk menggerakan
saham ini.
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
5. DO NOTHING
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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MARKET MAKER ACTION
5. DO NOTHING
BANDARMOLOGI THEORY
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CHAPTER 5
PENERAPAN TEORI
BANDARMOLOGI
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PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
AKUMULASI
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AKUMULASI
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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AKUMULASI – DIAGRAM BROKER SUMMARY
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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DISTRIBUSI
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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DISTRIBUSI
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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DISTRIBUSI – DIAGRAM BROKER SUMMARY
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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MODERN AKUMULASI & DISTRIBUSI
Konsep akumulasi/distribusi di atas secara prinsip akan
terus berlaku, tetapi penerapannya akan terus berkembang dari
waktu ke waktu, seiring semakin berkembangnya teknologi,
tersebarnya informasi dan bertambah pintarnya para investor
ritel. Saat ini proses akumulasi dan distribusi sudah jauh lebih
rumit dari yang kita lihat di atas.
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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MODERN AKUMULASI & DISTRIBUSI
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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MODERN AKUMULASI & DISTRIBUSI
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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TRANSFER SAHAM DARI SATU SEKURITAS KE SEKURITAS
YANG LAIN
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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AKUMULASI MODERN
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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DISTRIBUSI MODERN
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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AKUMULASI / DISTRIBUSI MODERN
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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MARK UP / MARK DOWN MODERN
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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MARK UP / MARK DOWN
PENERAPAN TEORI BANDARMOLOGI
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CHAPTER 4
JENIS – JENIS BANDARMOLOGI
ANALISIS
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JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
PROBLEM
• MM berusaha menutupi apa yang sedang dilakukannya.
• MM dengan mudah memindahkan barangnya dari satu
sekuritas ke sekuritas lain.
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OPPORTUNITY
• Transaksi MM selalu besar, dan dapat dideteksi.
• Memakai teori BANDARMOLOGI untuk mendeteksi broker
yang dipakai MM
• Memakai teori BANDARMOLOGI untuk menganalisa apa
yang sedang dilakukan market maker.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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THEORY : Market Maker Trade Against Us
• Mengetahui/percaya bahwa hanya ada
satu market maker di setiap saham.
• Menghilangkan kebingungan mengenai “perang
bandar”.
• Kita tidak perlu berharap atau menganggap “
bandar A buang barang, ditampung bandar B”.
• Setiap kode sekuritas dan volume yang
“mencurigakan” bisa kita anggap sebagai agen dari
market maker, dan semuanya memiliki 1 tujuan
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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THEORY : Market Maker Trade Against Us
TEAM BIRU VS TEAM MERAH
• Agen dari Market Maker bisa
menjual dan membeli saham di hari
yang sama,
• Tujuan mereka semua tetap
sama.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
JENIS – JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
TAPE READING• Analisa yang mengamati kecenderungan pergerakan Bandar
/ Big Player
• Kecenderungan dilihat dari siapa yang sedang membeli /
menjual
• Volume transaksi dalam jangka pendek
• Pola dan Detail Antrian
• Running Trade
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• Memprediksi JUMLAH SAHAM YANG DIMILIKI market
maker.
• Memprediksi JUMLAH BARANG YANG DIBELI / DIJUAL
dalam periode tertentu
• Memprediksi trend dari akumulasi/distribusi yang mereka
lakukan.
METODE INVENTORY ANALYSIS
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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• Akurasi Tinggi
• Dibutuhkan pengalaman dan pengamatan terus menerus.
• Dapat Berdiri Sendiri (tidak perlu dikombinasikan dengan
analisa lain)
METODE INVENTORY ANALYSIS
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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• SELECTIVE BROKER
• FOREIGN FLOW
METODE INVENTORY ANALYSIS
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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CONTOH INVENTORY ANALYSIS – SELECTIVE BROKER
1. Buat list broker yang
kemungkinan dipakai oleh
Market Maker
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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CONTOH INVENTORY ANALYSIS – SELECTIVE BROKER
3. Data Base Akumulasi / Distribusi Market Maker
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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CONTOH INVENTORY ANALYSIS – SELECTIVE BROKER
4. Tampilkan dalam Grafik
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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TIPS MENYELEKSI BROKER YANG DIPAKAI MARKET
MAKER
• Broker yang menjadi Top 3 buyer and seller setiap
minggu.
• The biggest net buyer and net seller every single day
• Foreign Broker (ML, BK, DB, RX, AK, AI, KZ, CS, BW, YU,
CG)
• Corporate Base Broker (CC, EP, YJ, KI)
• Broker with “odd lot” transaction.
• Unknown broker, with big volume.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – SELECTIVE BROKER
Jumlah Broker Yang Dianalisa
• Minimal 15 broker
• Jumlah wajar untuk saham mid caps adalah 30 broker.
• Di pilih dari broker-broker dengan transaksi paling dominan
Dalam jangka waktu 3 bulan sampai 2 tahun.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – SELECTIVE BROKER
Periode Analisa
• Semakin panjang periode analisa semakin baik.
• Periode minimal 3 bulan ke belakang.
• Analisa sebaiknya diteruskan selama kita masih
memegang saham yang bersangkutan.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – FOREIGN FLOW
ANALYSIS
Cara paling sederhana untuk mendeteksi aksi
akumulasi dan distribusi terutama di saham-saham
Big Caps adalah dengan mendeteksi aliran dana
asing di saham yang bersangkutan.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – FOREIGN FLOW ANALYSIS
• Investor asing tidak selalu Market Maker dari luar negeri,
tetapi hampir pasti bukan investor Ritel.
• Saham yang dibeli asing, tidak bisa keluar melalui lokal.
• Korelasi keluar masuknya dana asing dengan pergerakan
harga cukup tinggi di sebagian saham-saham besar.
• Semakin besar persentasi transaksi asing dibanding
volume harian, semakin besar pula korelasi
akumulasi/distribusi yang dilakukan oleh asing di saham
tersebut.
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – FOREIGN FLOW ANALYSIS
CONTOH KASUS: ASII
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – FOREIGN FLOW ANALYSIS
CONTOH KASUS: ITMG
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – FOREIGN FLOW ANALYSIS
CONTOH KASUS: TLKM
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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INVENTORY ANALYSIS – FOREIGN FLOW ANALYSIS
CONTOH KASUS: Foreign Flow Ratio
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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• Memprediksi aksi yang dilakukan market maker
• Mengkategorikan aksi harian yang dilakukan.
• Memonitor aksi MM secara real time.
• Sulit berdiri sendiri (sebaiknya dikombinasikan
dengan analisa lainnya.)
METODE MM ACTION ANALYSIS
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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METODE MM ACTION ANALYSIS
• AKUMULASI
• DISTRIBUSI
• MARK UP
• MARK DOWN
• DO NOTHING
JENIS–JENIS BANDARMOLOGI ANALYSIS
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CHAPTER 5
MARKET MAKER ACTION
ANALYSIS
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MMA ANALYSIS
MARKET MAKER ACTION ANALYSIS
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Total Broker:
• TOTAL BROKER NET SELL > TOTAL BROKER NET BUY
=> AKUMULASI
• TOTAL BR0KER NET SELL < TOTAL BROKER NET BUY
=> DISTRIBUSI
MM ACTION ANALYSIS
MMA ANALYSIS
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TOP 3 NET BUYER – TOP 3 NET SELLER > 0 => AKUMULASI
TOP 3 NET BUYER – TOP 3 NET SELLER< 0 => DISTRIBUSI
MM ACTION ANALYSIS : TOP 3 BROKER
MMA ANALYSIS
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TOP 5 NET BUYER – TOP 5NET SELLER > 0 => AKUMULASI
TOP 5NET BUYER – TOP 5 NET SELLER< 0 => DISTRIBUSI
MM ACTION ANALYSIS : TOP 5 BROKER
MMA ANALYSIS
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Average Top 1-10:
AVG 10 NET BUYER – AVG 10 NET SELLER > 0 => AKUMULASI
AVG 10 NET BUYER – AVG 10 NET SELLER< 0 => DISTRIBUSI
MM ACTION ANALYSIS : AVERAGE 10
MMA ANALYSIS
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Resume MMA:
(TOP 3 + TOP 5 + AVERAGE 10) /3 > 0 => AKUMULASI
(TOP 3 + TOP 5 + AVERAGE 10) /3 < 0 => DISTRIBUSI
MM ACTION ANALYSIS : RESUME MMA
MMA ANALYSIS
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ACTION ANALYSIS
MMA ANALYSIS
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CHAPTER 6
BANDARMOLOGI DI SAHAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DI SAHAM IPO
• Paling mudah untuk di analisa secara bandarmologi.
• Publik bisa mengetahui siapa yang menguasai supply-nya.
• Pasti akan terjadi proses distribusi di masa yang akan
datang.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO THEORY
Underwriters
raise investment capital for a company issuing securities.
Type of underwriting
• Bought deals
• Best effort deals
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO THEORY – BOUGHT DEALS
• Underwriter purchases a company's entire IPO issue
• Resells it to the investing public.
The amount of compensation the underwriter makes
• Price underwriter acquired from issuer (usually a discounted price)
-- Price that underwriter sells the stock to the public.
RISK - unsold shares then continue to be held by the underwriter.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO THEORY – Best Efforts
• Underwriter does not necessarily purchase
any of the IPO issue,
• “Best efforts" to sell to the investing public at
the best price possible.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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STRATEGI MARKET MAKER DI MASA IPO
1. DISTRIBUSI DI MASA IPO
2. DISTRIBUSI SETELAH IPO
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO GARUDADISTRIBUSI DI MASA IPO
• Underwriter yang memiliki banyak nasabah retail.
• Emiten dikenal publik.
• Memberikan persentase yang tinggi terhadap saham yang dipesan
kepada investor retail.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DISTRIBUSI DI SAAT IPO – GIAA
Retail Based UNDERWRITER.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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STUDI KASUS - GIAA
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DISTRIBUSI DI SAAT IPO –
Persentasi : 100% - Harga 750
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DI HARI IPO – HARGA LANGSUNG JATUH LEBIH DARI 20%
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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STRATEGI MARKET MAKER DI MASA IPO
DISTRIBUSI DI MASA IPO
• Underwriter yang memiliki banyak nasabah retail
• Memberikan persentase yang tinggi terhadap saham yang dipesan
kepada investor retail.
• Emiten yang sudah dikenal publik.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO KRAS
DISTRIBUSI SETELAH IPO
• Underwriter Dikenal Publik
• Emiten dikenal publik
• Memberikan persentase yang rendah terhadap saham yang
dipesan kepada investor retail. (< 10%)
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS : KRAS
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DISTRIBUSI SETELAH IPO – KRAS
Ciri-ciri :
• Retail Based UNDERWRITER.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DETAIL IPO KRAS
• Persentasi pembagian dalam IPO : 0 – 2%
• Harga IPO 850
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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STRATEGI MARKET MAKER DI MASA IPO
DISTRIBUSI SETELAH IPO
• Underwriter terkadang tidak memiliki banyak nasabah retail
• Memberikan persentase yang rendah terhadap saham yang
dipesan kepada investor retail. (< 5%)
• Emiten belum tentu dikenal publik.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO STAR
DISTRIBUSI SETELAH IPO
• Underwriter tidak dikenal publik.
• Emiten tidak dikenal publik.
• Memberikan persentasi yang rendah dalam proses pemesanan /
book building.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DISTRIBUSI SETELAH TERJADINYA IPO - STAR
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DISTRIBUSI SETELAH TERJADINYA IPO - STAR
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR ( Fase Mark Up Utama)
• Supply dikuasai penuh oleh Market Maker
• Kenaikan harga disertai dengan volume
yang rendah
• Harga umumnya naik 100 – 250% dari
harga IPO
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Fase Distribusi 1 (Test Market)
• Aksi distribusi ini terlihat sudah mencapai
sampai pada akhirnya, ketika sudah
kehilangan volumenya. Dan trend
pergerakan volume menurun drastis.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Fase Mark Up II
• Fase ini kemungkinan besar akan
dilakukan dengan volume yang jauh lebih
kecil dibanding Fase Mark Up pertama.
• Kenaikan biasa dilakukan secara cepat,
tanpa bisa diikuti oleh mayoritas investor
retail.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Fase Distribusi Utama
• Fase ini Distribusi dilakukan secara besar-
besaran. Bisa dilihat dari volume transaksi
yang jauh lebih besar fase-fase
sebelumnya.
• Volatilitas harga harian umumnya besar
untuk memastikan Investor Retail terus
berpartisipasi dalam masa distribusi.
• Besarnya presentasi Retail Base
Securities dalam transaksi ini.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Fase Distribusi Akhir
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Fase Distribusi Akhir
• Fase dimana Market Maker berusaha mendistribusikan semua
sahamnya ke Investor Ritel, proses ini mungkin terjadi di bawah
harga IPO. Karena tujuan Utama Market Maker adalah semua
Saham yang dimilikinya kepada publik, dengan harga rata-rata
di atas Harga IPO
• Sering diiringi oleh Mark Up harga jangka pendek, namun
selama broker-broker yang menjadi agent Market Maker masih
mendistribusikan barang, sebaiknya tetap menghindari saham
ini.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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DISTRIBUSI SETELAH TERJADINYA IPO
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Market Maker Analysis
Profile Top Net Seller STAR
1. AP – Pacific Capital
1 .326.918 lot
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Market Maker Analysis
Profile Top Net Seller STAR
2. PO – Pilarmas Investindo
722.986 lot
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Market Maker Analysis
Profile Top Net Seller STAR
3. IN – Investindo Nusantara
144.149 lot
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Market Maker Analysis
Profile Top Net Seller STAR
4. BJ – Andalan Artha Advisindo
144.149 lot
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Market Maker Analysis
Profile Top Net Seller STAR
5. Wanteg Securindo
124.946 lot
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR – Market Maker Analysis
Profile Top Net Buyer STAR
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR (Fase Take Over)
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR (Fase Take Over)
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR (Fase Take Over)
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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CONTOH KASUS STAR (Fase Take Over)
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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• CHAPTER 8 – ANALISA
UNDERWRITER DI SAHAM
IPO
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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• ANDALAN ARTHA INVESTINDO
• CODE : BJ
• Menjamin emiten yang tidak
dikenal publik, mengangkat
harga100 – 300% di atas harga IPO
sambil melakukan distribusi.
• Sering di akhiri dengan kejatuhan
drastis harga setelah masa
distribusi berakhir. (GAMA, TIFA)
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
STAR
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
GREN
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
GAMA
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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KESIMPULAN - IPO AAA
• Saham yang dijamin AAA umumnya bergerak naik paling tidak dalam 2
hari pertama.
• Range harian ketika harga sahamnya mulai bergerak bisa mencapai 10-
25% per hari.
• Saham-saham sector ini umumnya memeliki support di level IPO-nya
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - APLN
• EMITEN DIKENAL PUBLIK
• UNDER WRITER DIKENAL PUBLIK
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - APLN
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - SRTG
• EMITEN DIKENAL PUBLIK
• UNDER WRITER DIKENAL PUBLIK
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - SRTG
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - MPMX
• EMITEN DIKENAL PUBLIK
• UNDER WRITER DIKENAL PUBLIK
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - MPMX
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - BLTZ
• EMITEN DIKENAL PUBLIK
• UNDER WRITER DIKENAL PUBLIK
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO IPOT - BLTZ
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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KESIMPULAN - IPO IPOT
• Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir semua saham yang dijamin oleh IPOT
turun dalam beberapa bulan pertama.
• Banyaknya basis investor ritel yang dimiliki IPOT menjadi alasan
penurunan tersebut.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA - NOBU
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA - NOBU
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA - MLPT
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – MLPT
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – SILO
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – SILO
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – MDIA
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – MDIA
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – MDIA
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – LINK
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – IMPC
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO CIPTADANA – IMPC
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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KESIMPULAN - IPO CIPTADANA•IPO CIPTADANA memiliki potensi kenaikan paling besar dibanding dengan
IPO sekuritas lain.
• Pembagian saham dalam proses book building tidak besar, dan harganya
umumnya naik signifikan di beberapa hari pertama.
• Sebagai sekuritas milik Group Lippo, Ciptadana sering meng-IPO kan
anak perusahaannya, dan harganya umumnya naik sambil meningkatkan
nilai perusahaannya sendiri.
• KI hampir selalu menjadi top seller menunjukan strategi distribusi setelah
masa IPO.
• Target harga di saham-saham yang dijamin KI adalah 100%-200% di atas
harga IPO, dalam 1-2 tahun.
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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IPO BUMN
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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WTON
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
WSKT
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WTON
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
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BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
GIAA
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SMBR
BANDARMOLOGI DALAM IPO
SMBR
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IPO TAHUN INI
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MIKA
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MIKA
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KOPI
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KOPI
GIAA
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PPRO
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PPRO
GIAA
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DMAS
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DMAS
GIAA
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MMLP
GIAA
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MMLP
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MDKA
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MDKA
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