bangkok dusit medical services - bgh

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Ref. No.: CO2555_0227 1 of 7 Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - BGH CY12 revenue growth target of 11% y-y Bloomberg Reuters BGH.TH BGH9 Thailand Equities Research 12 March 2012 Report type: Company Update Company Overview BGH is Thailand’s biggest privately held hospital chain. Currently it has 29 hospitals in its portfolio across Thailand. In the first two months of CY12, BGH reported revenue growth of 15%. For the whole of CY12, BGH aims to achieve revenue growth of 11%, of which 5% would come from patient volume growth and 6% from higher disease intensity. BGH plans to open a heart clinic at Phayathai Hospital 3 and a cancer care center at Paolo Hospital. We expect BGH to deliver CY12 core business net profit of Bt4,737.94mn, up 21.27% from Bt3,906.96mn a year ago. We rate BGH shares a ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Bt86.50/share. What is the news? Revenue from hospital operations continued to keep rising. In Jan-Feb 2012, revenue grew by 15%. BGH aims to achieve revenue growth of 11% y-y for the whole of CY12. Thanks to a huge success of its heart and cancer centers operated by Bangkok Heart Hospital and Wattanosoth Hospital respectively, BGH plans to open a heart clinic at Phayathai Hospital 3 and a cancer care center at Paolo Memorial Hospital with a team of physicians from BGH, a move that could boost service efficiency for hospitals in its network. How do we view this? Revenue would be driven by organic and inorganic growth from existing hospitals and newly acquired hospitals. Investment Actions? The recent strong rally in share prices has pushed total investment returns lower to a mere 6.1%. We rate BGH shares a ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Bt86.50/share. Analyst Rutsada Tweesaengsakulthai Analyst Reg #17972 Rating 2.00 Accumulate - Previous Rating 1.00 Buy Target Price (Bt) 86.50 - Previous Target Price (Bt) 86.50 Closing Price (Bt) 82.50 Expected Capital Gains (%) 4.8% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.2% Expected Total Return (%) 6.1% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 0.29 Market Cap. (USD mn) 4,163 Enterprise Value (USD mn) 4,603 Market Cap. (Bt mn) 127,500 Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 141,374 3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 2.3 52 w eek range 49.75 - 84 Closing Price in 52 w eek range Major Shareholders (%) 12.2 10.0 7.6 CG Report - 2011 N/A Key Financial Summary FYE 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F Revenue (Btmn) 23,513 35,224 37,671 39,678 Net Profit (Btmn) 2,295 4,386 4,738 5,040 EPS (Bt) 1.84 2.84 3.07 3.26 Net Profit, adj. (Btmn) 2,295 3,907 4,738 5,040 EPS, adj. (Bt) 1.84 2.53 3.07 3.26 P/E (X),adj. 44.8 32.6 26.9 25.3 BVPS (Bt) 12.55 20.70 25.92 31.45 P/B (X) 6.6 4.0 3.2 2.6 DPS (Bt) 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.05 Div. Yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method DCF (WACC 8.5%, termial g 4%) 1. Mr.Wichai Thongtang 2. Mr.Sathit Thongtang 3. Mr.Prasert Pasathong O-Sod 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 0.1 3.1 6.1 9.1 12.1 15.1 18.1 Volume, mn BGH TB EQUITY SETI rebased 0% 50% 100%

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Page 1: Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - BGH

Ref. No.: CO2555_0227 1 of 7

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - BGH

CY12 revenue growth target of 11% y-y Bloomberg │ Reuters BGH.TH │BGH9

Thailand Equities Research 12 March 2012

Report type: Company Update

Company Overview BGH is Thailand’s biggest privately held hospital chain. Currently it has 29 hospitals in its portfolio across Thailand.

• In the first two months of CY12, BGH reported revenue growth of 15%. For the whole of CY12, BGH aims to achieve revenue growth of 11%, of which 5% would come from patient volume growth and 6% from higher disease intensity.

� BGH plans to open a heart clinic at Phayathai Hospital 3 and a cancer care center at Paolo Hospital.

� We expect BGH to deliver CY12 core business net profit of Bt4,737.94mn, up 21.27% from Bt3,906.96mn a year ago.

� We rate BGH shares a ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Bt86.50/share.

What is the news? Revenue from hospital operations continued to keep rising. In Jan-Feb 2012, revenue grew by 15%. BGH aims to achieve revenue growth of 11% y-y for the whole of CY12. Thanks to a huge success of its heart and cancer centers operated by Bangkok Heart Hospital and Wattanosoth Hospital respectively, BGH plans to open a heart clinic at Phayathai Hospital 3 and a cancer care center at Paolo Memorial Hospital with a team of physicians from BGH, a move that could boost service efficiency for hospitals in its network. How do we view this? Revenue would be driven by organic and inorganic growth from existing hospitals and newly acquired hospitals. Investment Actions? The recent strong rally in share prices has pushed total investment returns lower to a mere 6.1%. We rate BGH shares a ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Bt86.50/share.

Analyst

Rutsada Tweesaengsakulthai Analyst Reg #17972 Tel. 66 2 635 1700 Ext 482 Email: [email protected]

Rating 2.00 Accumulate

- Previous Rating 1.00 Buy

Target Price (Bt) 86.50

- Previous Target Price (Bt) 86.50

Closing Price (Bt) 82.50

Expected Capital Gains (%) 4.8%

Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.2%

Expected Total Return (%) 6.1%

Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data) 0.29

Market Cap. (USD mn) 4,163

Enterprise Value (USD mn) 4,603

Market Cap. (Bt mn) 127,500

Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 141,374

3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 2.3

52 week range 49.75 - 84

Closing Price in 52 week range

Major Shareholders (%)

12.2

10.0

7.6

CG Report - 2011

N/A

Key Financial SummaryFYE 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F

Revenue (Btmn) 23,513 35,224 37,671 39,678

Net Profit (Btmn) 2,295 4,386 4,738 5,040

EPS (Bt) 1.84 2.84 3.07 3.26

Net Profit, adj. (Btmn) 2,295 3,907 4,738 5,040

EPS, adj. (Bt) 1.84 2.53 3.07 3.26

P/E (X),adj. 44.8 32.6 26.9 25.3

BVPS (Bt) 12.55 20.70 25.92 31.45

P/B (X) 6.6 4.0 3.2 2.6

DPS (Bt) 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.05

Div. Yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Source: Bloomberg, PSR est.

*All multiples & yields based on current market price

Valuation Method

DCF (WACC 8.5%, termial g 4%)

1. Mr.Wichai Thongtang

2. Mr.Sathit Thongtang

3. Mr.Prasert Pasathong O-Sod

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

0.1

3.1

6.1

9.1

12.1

15.1

18.1

Volume, mn BGH TB EQUITY SETI rebased

0% 50% 100%

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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - BGH Thailand Equities Research 12 March 2012

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CY12 revenue growth target of 11% y -y In 4QCY11, BGH posted a revenue drop of 5.52% q-q in 4QCY11 as some hospitals in its network were affected by floods. Revenue from hospital operations however returned to positive growth of 15% y-y in the first two months of CY12. Last year, BGH made huge investments in terms of specialist nurses and physicians, putting it in a ready position to accommodate future growth. Management has guided for CY12 revenue growth of 11%, of which 5% would come from patient volume growth and 6% from higher disease intensity. BGH also plans to boost revenue from the recently acquired Phayathai and Paolo Memorial Hospital groups driven by not only patient volume growth but also disease intensity. To this end, Phayathai Hospital 3 plans to open a heart clinic with a team of physicians from Bangkok Heart Hospital while Paolo Nawamin Hospital will open a cancer care center with a team of physicians from Wattanosoth Hospital. The introduction of the latest medical innovation called ‘Robot Doctor’ would also allow patients in the provinces to meet specialist physicians or physicians from hospitals in Bangkok. The above plans aim to generate revenue growth and put BGH on track to meet its revenue growth target of 11% y-y. Revenue contribution from local Thai patients up fo llowing consolidation of Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospi tal groups In CY12, BGH earned revenue of Bt35,224mn. Of the total, Bt26,631mn came from BDMS, accounting for 76% of total revenue and the remaining Bt8,593mn from the recently acquired Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospital groups, making up 24% of the total. BGH also made a net profit of Bt3,907mn in CY12. Of the total, Bt2,917mn came from BDMS, accounting for 74.67% of the total net profit and the rest Bt990mn from Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospital groups, making up 25.34% of the total. BDMS had a net profit margin of 10.95% as increased investments in medical personnel drove costs higher while Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospital groups yielded a net profit margin of 11.52%. Revenue contribution from local Thai patients rose to 74% of the total revenue in CY11 from 64% a year ago following consolidation of revenues from Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospital groups, which contributed 24% of the total revenue. On the other hand, revenue from international patients dropped to 26% of the total revenue in CY11 from 36% a year ago. Currently bed utilization rate stood at 66%-67%. Utilization rate at BDMS was 65% of its total 2,500 beds and 75% of the total 1,500 beds for Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospital groups.

BGH has a policy to continue its expansion drive. Management notes that BGH is still looking for M&A opportunities and it may also consider green-field investments. The newly opened hospital in Hua Hin has also been very successful and it has also referred high intensity patients to Bangkok Hospital in Bangkok. 29 hospitals in portfolio Currently BGH has a network of 29 hospitals, which are divided into the following five groups: (1) BMC comprising 4 hospitals on New Petchaburi Road, (2) Smitivej and BNH comprising 4 hospitals, (3) hospitals under the chain Bangkok Hospital in the provinces comprising 7 hospitals, (4) overseas hospitals under the chain Bangkok Hospital comprising 6 hospitals and (5) Phayathai and Paolo Memorial hospital groups, comprising 8 hospitals. CY12 earnings growth outlook of 21.27% y-y We expect BGH to achieve CY12 revenue growth of 6.5%, below the company’s target of 11%. We will wait and see how earnings will look in 1QCY12 before we place our estimates for BGH under review. For the meantime, we estimate BGH will deliver a CY12 core business net profit of Bt4,737.94mn, up 21.27% from Bt3,906.96mn a year ago ‘TRADING BUY’ rating with Bt86.50/share target pric e The recent strong rally in share prices has pushed total investment returns lower to a mere 6.1%. We rate BGH shares a ‘ACCUMULATE’ with a target price of Bt86.50/share.

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FYE Dec FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13FValuation RatiosP/E (X), adj. 58.1 44.8 32.6 26.9 25.3P/B (X) 7.1 6.6 4.0 3.2 2.6EV/EBITDA (X), adj. 26.9 24.0 15.6 13.8 13.7Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Per share data (Bt)EPS, reported 1.42 1.84 2.84 3.07 3.26EPS, adj. 1.42 1.84 2.53 3.07 3.26DPS 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.05BVPS 11.65 12.55 20.70 25.92 31.45Growth & Margins (%)GrowthRevenue 1.9 8.9 49.8 6.9 5.3EBITDA 215.9 12.3 54.1 12.5 1.1EBIT -2.6 25.9 70.3 17.1 0.9Net Income, adj. 3.8 33.0 70.2 21.3 6.4MarginsEBITDA margin 24.3 25.1 25.8 27.1 26.0EBIT margin 13.8 15.9 18.1 19.8 19.0Net Profit Margin 11.0 17.6 14.3 14.2 14.1

Key RatiosROE (%) 7.2 6.4 9.9 8.9 8.8 ROA (%) 3.8 3.9 7.5 8.0 8.6

Net Debt-Cash -210 3,307 3,145 2,072 1,320Net Gearing(X) Net Cash 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Income Statement (Bt mn)Revenue 21,597 23,513 35,224 37,671 39,678EBITDA 5,250 5,894 9,082 10,215 10,329Depreciation & Amortisation 2,277 2,150 2,707 2,750 2,800EBIT 2,973 3,744 6,374 7,465 7,529Net Finance (Expense)/Income -641 -584 -770 -933 -841Other items -579 -838 -2,049 -2,070 -2,091Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 0Profit Before Tax 3,160 5,604 6,532 6,688 6,996Taxation -779 -1,456 -1,502 -1,338 -1,399Profit After Tax 2,380 4,148 5,030 5,351 5,597Non-controlling Interest -85 -241 -292 -310 -325Net Income, reported 1,725 2,295 4,386 4,738 5,040Net Income, adj. 1,725 2,295 3,907 4,738 5,040Source: PSR est.

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Total Returns Recommendation Rating> +20% Buy 1+5% to +20% Accumulate/Trading Buy 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce/Trading Sell 4>-20% Sell 5

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We

consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation

Ratings History

Phillip Group Rating System

Remarks

12345

Source: Bloomberg, PSR

10

30

50

70

90

110

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Target PriceMarket Price

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Research Department Fundamental: Name Analyst Reg No. Tel Email Sector Sasikorn Charoensuwan 9744 66 2 635 1700#480 [email protected] Banking Finance and Securities Rutsada Tweesaengsakulthai 17972 66 2 635 1700#482 [email protected] ICT Energy Health Care Services Danai Tunyaphisitchai 2375 66 2 635 1700#481 [email protected] Construction Materials Property Development Naree Apisawaittakan 17971 66 2 635 1700#484 [email protected] Agro & food Industry Electronics Siam Tiyanont 17970 66 2 635 1700#483 [email protected] Transportation Media and Publishing Preeyanun Tripetchchuporn 17973 66 2 635 1700#488 [email protected] Petrochemicals and Chemicals Commerce Tourism Ornmongkol Tantitanatorn 34100 66 2 635 1700#491 [email protected] Finance and Securities Automotive Construction Materials Strategy: Name Analyst Reg No. Tel Email Teerada Charnyingyong 9501 66 2 635 1700#487 [email protected] Pinkaew Santimetvirul 37928 66 2 635 1700#491 [email protected] Waraporn Trakonthanasoontorn 66 2 635 1700#495 [email protected] Technical: Name Analyst Reg No. Tel Email Sasima Hattakitnikorn 8328 66 2 635 1700#490 [email protected] Kanoksak Vutipan 2423 66 2 635 1700#485 [email protected] Database & Production: Name Tel Email Manunpat Yuenyongwatanakorn 66 2 635 1700#492 [email protected] Sutiporn Oupkaew 66 2 635 1700#489 [email protected] Translation: Name Tel Email Chaiyot Ingkhasorarat 66 2 635 1700#493 [email protected]

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Bangkok Offices Head Office Srinakarindr Branch Viphavadi Branch

11st Fl., Unit 1102, 14th Fl., Unit 1404 17th Fl., Modernform Tower, 15th Fl., Lao Peng Nguan Tower 1,

and 15th Fl., Vorawat Bldg., 699 Srinakarindr Rd., Suan Luang, 333 Soi Chuaypuang, Viphavadi- 849 Silom Rd. Silom, Suan Luang, Bangkok 10250 Rangsit Rd., Ladyao, Chatuchak, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Tel : 0 2722 8344-53 Bangkok 10900 Tel : 0 2635 1700 , 0 2268 0999 Fax : 0 2722 8343 Tel : 0 2618 8400 Fax : 0 2635 1615 Fax : 0 2618 8344 , 0 2618 8381 Yaowarat Branch Bangkapi Branch Bangkapi 2 Branch

19th Fl., Kanchanadhat Bldg., 8th Fl., The Mall Office Tower-Bangkapi 8th Fl., The Mall Office Tower-Bangkapi 308 Yaowarat Rd., Jakawat, 3522 Lad Prao Rd., Klongchan 3522 Lad Prao Rd., Klongchan Sampantawong, Bangkok 10100 Bangkapi, Bangkok 10240 Bangkapi, Bangkok 10240 Tel : 0 2622 7833 , 0 2226 2777 Tel : 0 2363 3263 Tel : 0 2363 3469 Fax : 0 2622 7844 Fax : 0 2363 3275 Fax : 0 2363 3464 Hua Lumphong Branch Rangsit Branch Sindhorn Branch

4th Fl., Tang Hua Pak Bldg., G Fl., Room#PLZ.G.SHP065A 130-132 Sindhorn Tower 3 Building, 320 Rama 4 Rd., Mahaprutharam, Future Park Rangsit 19 Floor, Wireless Rd., Lumpini, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 94 Paholyothin Rd., Prachathipat, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Tel : 0 2639 1200 Thunyaburi, Pathumthani 12130 Tel : 0 2650 9717 Fax : 0 2639 1340-1 Tel : 0 2958 5040 Fax : 0 2657 9722 Fax : 0 2567 3311 Provincial Offices Khon Kaen Branch Phisanulok Branch Had Yai Branch

4th Fl., Kow Yoo Hah Bldg., 2nd Fl., Thai Sivarat Bldg., 4th Fl., Southland Rubber Bldg., 359/2 Mittapap Rd., Naimuang, 59/15 Baromtrilokanad Rd., Naimuang 55 Ratyindee Rd., Had Yai, Muang , Khon Kaen 40000 Muang, Phisanulok 65000 Had Yai, Songkla 90110 Tel : 0 4332 5044-8 Tel : 0 5524 3646 Tel : 0 7423 4095-99, 0 7423 0537-8 Fax : 0 4322 5687 Fax : 0 5524 5082 Fax : 0 7422 0908 Khon Kaen-Rim Bueng Branch Had Yai-Petkasem Branch Chumporn Investor Center

3rd Fl., Arokaya Bldg., 3rd Fl., Unit 3D, Redar Group Bldg., 25/45 Krom Luang Chumporn Rd., 52 Rop Bueng Rd., Nai Muang, 607 Petkaseam Rd., Had Yai, Tatapao, Muang, Chumporn 86000 Muang , Khon Kaen 40000 Had Yai, Songkla 90110 Tel : 0 7757 0652-3 Tel : 0 4322 6026 Tel : 0 7422 3044 Fax : 0 7757 0441 Fax : 0 4322 6796 Fax : 0 7422 3620 Suratthani Branch Laemchabang Branch 62/9 Donnok Rd., Talad, 83/112, 114 Moo 9, Tungsukla Muang Suratthani, Suratthani 84000 Sriracha, Chonburi 20110 Tel : 077 206 131 Tel : 0 3849 0669 Fax : 077 206 151 Fax : 0 3849 3125

Results Presentation

Score Range Number of Logo

Less than 50 No logo given

50 - 59

60 - 69

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The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative disclosured to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Gavernance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phillip Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

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Overseas Offices Singapore Office: Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Phillip Futures Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower. #07-01 Raffles City Tower. Singapore 179 101 Singapore 179 101 Company Reg. No. 197501035Z Company Reg. No. 198305695G Tel : (65) 65336001 (General) Tel : (65) 65351155 (General) Fax : (65) 65353834 Fax : (65) 65330593 Hong Kong Office: Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Phillip Commodities (HK) L td 11/F United Centre 95 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Queensway Hong Kong Tel : (852) 22776600 Tel : (852) 22776600 Fax : (852) 28685307 Fax : (852) 28685307 Japan Office: Phillip Futures K.K. The Naruse Securities Co. Ltd. Tosho Bldg., 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, 6F, 3-8-3 Nihonbashi Hon-cho, Chuo-Ku Tokyo 103-0026 Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-0023 Japan Tel : (81-3) 5651-2111 Tel : (81-3) 36662101 Fax : (81-3) 3662-5700 Fax : (81-3) 36678806 United Kingdom Office: Indonesia Office: King & Shaxson Ltd. Walker, Crips, Weddle, Beck PLC PT Phillip Securities Indonesia 6th Floor Candlewick House Sophia House, Wisma Standard Chartered Bank, 120 Cannon Street, London 76/80 City Road, Level 23B, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. EC4N 6AS London EC1Y 2EQ 33A Jakarta 10220 Indonesia Tel : (44-20) 7929 5300 Tel : (44-20) 72537502 Tel : (62-21) 57900800 Fax : (44-20) 7283 6385 Fax : (44-20) 72537500 Fax : (62-21) 57900809 Australia Office: Sri Lanka Office: Head Office - Melbourne Sydney Office Asha Phillip Se curities Ltd. Intersuisse Ltd Intersuisse Ltd Level 4, MiIlennium House Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Level 7, 5 Elizabeth Street, Sydney, No.46/58, Navam Mawatha, Melbourne, Victory 3000, NSW 2000, Columbo 02, Sri Lanka Australia Australia Tel : (94-1) 12314875 Tel : (613) 96298288 Tel : (612) 92332100 Fax : (94-1) 12314883 Fax : (613) 96298882 Fax : (612) 92332117 The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities(Thailand) believes reliable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein. We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned herein.

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PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or

absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

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Page 9: Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - BGH

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