bangkok september, 2012 1 economic integration 2 bangkok september, 2012

Bangkok September, 2012Bangkok September, 2012 1

Economic Integration

2Bangkok September, 2012Bangkok September, 2012

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Model MigrationSTRADA- CUBE VOYAGER

Model Validation against Traffic CountsForecast Usage on the proposed

ExpresswayEconomic Integration

The Assignment

TIME FRAME 6 TIME FRAME 6 WeeksWeeks

Bangkok September, 2012Bangkok September, 2012

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Model Migration

MatricesNetworksGeneral The Final Model Structure


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The Project

MULTI MODAL MULTI MODAL TRANSPORT TRANSPORT MODEL OF MODEL OF VIETNAMVIETNAM

Vietnam Vietnam Statistics:Statistics:

Year Population Year Population GDPGDP

20062006 84.8 84.8 38.738.7

2022 95.9 2022 95.9 86.786.7

(Mil) (Bil$)(Mil) (Bil$)


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STRADA

SYSTEM FOR

TRAFFIC DEMAND ANALYSIS

Developed byJICAJICA

(Japan International Cooperation Agency)


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STRADA PROGRAMSJCMA03 Combined Modal Split and Assignment JCMA03 Combined Modal Split and Assignment Model Model JDAM03 JDAM03 Disaggregate Model Disaggregate Model JEVL03 JEVL03 Evaluator Evaluator JGIS03 JGIS03 GIS Converter GIS Converter JHWR03JHWR03 Highway Reporter Highway Reporter JICA03 JICA03 Intersection Analyzer Intersection Analyzer JINA03 JINA03 Incremental Assignment Incremental Assignment JLPA03 JLPA03 LP Assignment LP Assignment JMTM03JMTM03 Matrix Manipulator Matrix Manipulator JNTE03 JNTE03 Network Editor Network Editor JODB03 JODB03 OD Calibrator OD Calibrator JSUE03 JSUE03 Stochastic User Equilibrium Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment Assignment JTUE03 JTUE03 Time of Day User Equilibrium Time of Day User Equilibrium Assignment Assignment JTLE03 JTLE03 Transit Line Editor Transit Line Editor JTRA03 JTRA03 Transit Assignment Transit Assignment JUEA03 JUEA03 User Equilibrium Assignment User Equilibrium Assignment JTMB03 JTMB03 Trip Matrix BuilderTrip Matrix Builder


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Matrix Conversion

File Format---CSVFile Format---CSV

1 00FILEI MATI[ ] = "C:\VIETNAM\MODEL\DISTRIBUTION\DIMAT B.DBF", 1 00FILEI MATI[ ] = "C:\VIETNAM\MODEL\DISTRIBUTION\DIMAT B.DBF",

0Pattern=IJM:V, FIELDS=origin,destin, ,car,bus,inland,railway,air 0Pattern=IJM:V, FIELDS=origin,destin, ,car,bus,inland,railway,air

Strada FormatStrada Format

Output to CSV then sort to DBF

Read into CUBERead into CUBE


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Estimation of Base 2006 Matrix


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Network Conversion

Step 1Step 1 - GIS Converter of - GIS Converter of STRADA~MIF STRADA~MIF Shape for each mode-Strada NetworkShape for each mode-Strada Network

Step 2Step 2 - GIS Converter - GIS Converter~Convert to ~Convert to Arcview NetworkArcview Network

Step 3Step 3 – Develop Database Program – Develop Database Program to Modify some fieldsto Modify some fields

Step 4Step 4 – Load Network Database – Load Network Database together with Shape File into together with Shape File into Voyager, and link with other GIS Voyager, and link with other GIS data such as zone boundaries.data such as zone boundaries.

WE WILL SEE A DETAILED PICTURE OF THE FULL WE WILL SEE A DETAILED PICTURE OF THE FULL NETWORK LATERNETWORK LATER


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The Multimodal Network

MULTI MODAL MULTI MODAL TRANSPORT TRANSPORT MODEL OF MODEL OF VIETNAMVIETNAM


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Model Parameters and Equations

Parameters for Trip Generation, Trip Distribution and Modal Split were taken from the earlier study report documentation

The modules were developed for both person and freight trips

Base Voyager Model was re-run to ensure outcome of the same results


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The National Multimodal Transport Model

Freight and Person TripsFreight and Person Trips Road, Rail, Road, Rail, Water and AirWater and Air

Incorporates a Incorporates a Matrix Estimation Matrix Estimation Procedure via Procedure via CUBE AnalystCUBE Analyst

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An Economic Module

OverviewThe ProcedureEconomic Parameters

The Voyager CodeBangkok September, 2012Bangkok September, 2012

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An Overview

Transport Model Economic Analysis

Transport Model Output in the form of

pcu-km and pcu-hr

Passenger Model Output in the form of

passenger-km and passenger hours

Post Transport Model Economic

Analysis

TOGETHERTOGETHER

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Why an Economic Module? Often the Transport Model is removed from

economic analysis The Economic Analysis is a separate program

or spreadsheet analysis BUT WHAT IF?

Establish an Economic Framework Each Model Run produces an economic cost or

financial cost or revenue Previously we have done this using sometimes add

on programs


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North Vietnam—Detailed Study Area showing Project for Evaluation

Toll Expressway Link Between China and Hanoi

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National transport model

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Economic ProcedureTHREE INPUT LOOKUP THREE INPUT LOOKUP

TABLESTABLES

1. Linked to Economic Growth for a Scenario

2. Vehicle Operating Costs by Link Class

3. Accident Costs

Key Output FileKey Output File

1. Link File with Costs appended for each Link

2. Economic Summary File, Economic Cost of Project

Pilot ProgramPilot Program

1. Creates a File name and directory for economic costs for a particular scenario eg

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Creation of Economic Curves

Prepared for 11 Vehicle ClassesHDM4 Relationships incorporated from

REDS (Roads Economic Decision Model)

Vehicle Operating Cost calculated for a specified range of speeds for pre determined road conditions such as roughness, gradient and curvature

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An InterludeAn Interlude ---The HDM-4 Model, a tool of the World Bank Analytical tool for engineering and

economic assessment of

- road investments and maintenance

- transport pricing and regulation

Physical and economic relationships derivedfrom extensive research on road deterioration,the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costs


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Economic Parameters and Conclusion of Procedure

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Cost Lookup Table

Input Operating Cost Curves as a Function of Speed

Three Non Expressway Terrain Classes-Mountainous, Rolling and Flat and one Expressway Class

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Vehicle

Classes

Cost = a+b*Speed+c*Speed2


Futura 07 Palm SpringsFutura 07 Palm Springs 24

Vehicle Operating Cost Curve as a Function of Speed

Note: This is an estimation for specified gradient, curvature and roughness (IRI) value of 5.Note: This is an estimation for specified gradient, curvature and roughness (IRI) value of 5.


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Summary Output File


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Creation of With and Without Project for Estimation of Economic Benefits

Produce four Different Files of With and Without Expressway for Specified Toll Level


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Output Scenario Names

FILE FILE STRUCTURE STRUCTURE

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The Voyager Codetolla={Toll_Rate}toll_str=ltrim(str(tolla,4,0))a='VND'subdir=a+toll_str;year=str({Year},4,0)1

1 32yr=yr +substr(year, , );=__({_}=)=__;=If({Generation}=1)gen='WithGen';

;Prepare File Name in Three steps to specify year and with or without expressway orgeneration -- ; Format Yr12_Exp_WithGen ; write into subdirectory of toll class

;filena=yr+expxfilenam=filena+gen;ext='.csv'filename=filenam+ext

*MD c:\vietnam\economic_tr\@subdir@ *copy "{SCENARIO_DIR}\ECO_COST.CSV" c:\vietnam\economic_tr\@subdir@\@fil

ename@Bangkok September, 2012Bangkok September, 2012

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Project Status

CURRENT STATUSEconomic Cost estimated for each scenarioWith and without Cases from CUBE

Voyager written to CSV FilesEconomic evaluation Spread sheet still not

in Voyager but linked directly to Voyager output files

Simply Open Economic Spreadsheet and Update Links to Produce EIRR for any scenario


Bangkok September, 2012Bangkok September, 2012 30

Thank you

bangkok september, 2012 1 economic integration 2 bangkok september, 2012

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