bank of ireland hotel sector briefing - think business · active pipeline london –supply &...

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Bank of Ireland – Hotel Sector Briefing29th November 2018

[email protected]

Sarah Duignan – Director, Client Relationships

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Middle East

Southern Africa

Northern Africa

+30.6%

Global RevPAR % Change – supply challenges continue in the MEEUR, Constant Currency, October 2018 YTD

Europe

Asia+3.1%

-1.3%

+5.2%

+24.8%

+5.2%

-6.0%+3.1%

Australia & Oceania

+2.1%

North America

Central America

South America


1.8% 1.7% 1.9%1.1%

4.9%

1.2%

3.6%

1.8%2.3%

-3.6%

5.0%

2.3%

3.9%

5.9%

4.1%

2.2%

North America &Caribbean

Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania

Supply Demand

Good demand growth across the world, except Central AmericaGlobal Supply & Demand % Change, October 2018 YTD


0%

5%

10%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change

Europe - Muted supply growth lifts occupancy (and RevPAR)Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, Constant Currency, EUR. October YTD 2018


Europe continues to experience positive growthEurope – Main KPIs, Constant Currency, EUR, October 2018 YTD

73.4%Occupancy+1.2%

113.64ADR+4.0%

83.45RevPAR+5.2%


EUR 0

EUR 50

EUR 100

EUR 150

EUR 200

EUR 250

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

ADR RevPAR Occupancy

Paris leading the European RevPAR and Dublin leads occupancy.Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, EUR, October 2018 YTD


Vienna

Madrid

London

Brussels

Europe – RevPAR % Change, Local Currency, October 2018 YTD

Dublin

Edinburgh

Paris

Lisbon

Helsinki

St. Petersburg

Moscow

Zurich

Barcelona

Amsterdam

Istanbul

BelgradeBucharest

Kiev

Budapest

BerlinWarsaw

Prague

7

-1

12

4

-1

6

13

6 7

7

4

6

53

78

418

17

-3

8

Copenhagen3

A mixed bag in Europe but mainly positive

-12

-7Rome

Athens6

5

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved. © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Ireland – positive performance prevails


74.6%Occupancy

115.43+0.9%

ADR+9.3%

86.16RevPAR+10.3%

REGIONAL Ireland –It’s all about ADR

. EUR €, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR & % chg.


Ireland Regional by class – Luxury €110 & Upper Upscale €40 premiums

EUR €, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200

€250

€300

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

Luxury Reg Upper Upscale Reg Upscale Reg Upper Midscale Reg Midscale Reg

Occ ADR RevPAR


-0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.3%

1.8%

0.5%

0.8%

0.5%0.4%

Luxury Reg Upper Upscale Reg Upscale Reg Upper Midscale Reg Midscale & Econ Reg

Occ ADR RevPAR

Ireland Regional by class – ADR driving performance across all classesEUR € October 2018 YTD Occupancy and ADR % Change


€0

€20

€40

€60

€80

€100

€120

€140

€160

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%


Key Irish Markets – occupancy in excess of 70% across the board

EUR €, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR


Irish Markets Performance – Cork remains the top mover EUR € Occ and ADR % change – October 2018 YTD

Dublin

Cork

Kerry

KilkennyLeinster Regional

Munster Regional

Galway

Sligo

Ireland

Reg. Ireland

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

AD

R %

Ch

g

Occ % Chg


Dublin – rounding up the year in positive territory


-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD Oct2018

Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR

Dublin – RevPAR growth over 7% with 2 months to goEUR €, Full Year 2008 to October 2018 YTD. Supply, Demand & RevPAR % chg


EUR €, October 2018 YTD Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR

85.4%0.6%occupancy

147.18+6.5%ADR

125.65+7.1%RevPAR

Dublin – strong occupancy base pushing ADR growth


€0

€20

€40

€60

€80

€100

€120

€140

€160

€180

€200

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Dublin Submarkets – City Centre commands a €60 premiumEUR €, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR


EUR €, RevPAR % chg. October 2018 YTD

Dublin City Centre

+7.4%

Dublin Airport

+7.5%

Dublin Surroundings

+6.0%

Dublin Submarkets – Airport fastest growing (just!)


Dublin by class - Lux & Upper Up €50 ADR premium, Upper only €10 EUR €, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200

€250

€300

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

ADR RevPAR Occ


Dublin by class – Upper Midscale fastest growing classEUR €. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR % chg. October 2018 YTD.

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale

ADR Occupancy RevPAR


Dublin Compression – a 41% yield results in €45 higher ADREUR €, Compression Analysis Year End 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

AD

R (

€)

Day

Co

un

t

Occupancy (%) Day Count ADR (€)

>=9080 - 9070 - 80<70

41%


Dublin Compression analysis – a 49% yield results in €53 higher ADR EUR €, Compression Analysis October 2018 YTD.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

AD

R (

£)

Day

Co

un

t

Occupancy (%) Day Count ADR (£)

>=9080 - 9070 - 80<70

49%

-3%


Pipeline – hotels, hotels, more hotels….


14%

6%

7%

15%

4%

7%

3%

28%

15%

21%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Israel

Netherlands

Switzerland

Poland

Turkey

Russia

France

Ireland

Germany

United Kingdom

Thousands

Existing Pipeline Pipeline % Existing

Europe – Pipeline, Top 10October 2018 Report, Pipeline by Room Count


Dublin is now at 23,005 bedrooms, with 3,696 in construction2,682 expected to open between now and year end 2019


Upscale and Upper Midscale comprise over 60% of new openingsNumber of rooms opening between now and December 2019

ClassRoomCount

Project Count

Active Pipeline London – Supply & Active Pipeline

Luxury 0 0

Upper Upscale 3 700

Upscale 11 860

Upper Midscale 8 819

Midscale 4 84

Economy 2 219

Total 28 2,682

Openings 2018/2019 Dublin – Openings 2018/2019


Capitalize on your own potential.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Business-on-the-Books for Dublin for next 90 days as at 26 Nov 2018

Andre Rieu

Six NationsIreland v England

Forward weekend demand and compression highly

visible

Business-on-the-Books for Dublin for next 90 days Compared to last year and two years ago actuals

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2018 2017 2016

Pickup from last week for the next 28 days as at 26 Nov 2018

14%

14%15%

13%

7%

6%

6%

9%10% 9%

9%

6% 5%

4% 7%

7% 6% 5%

6% 5%

3%3% 4% 3%

3%

2% 2%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

8.7%

6.4%5.9%

4.4%

3.7%

2.9%2.7%

2.1%1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Average Pickup for next 12 weeks as at 26 November 2018

Over the course of any given week a hotel will pick up 8.7%

for the next week.

63%

38%

22%19%

25%27%

31%33%

28%25%

28%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

November December January February March April May June July August September October

Business-on-the-Books for Dublin for next 12 months as at 05 Nov 2018

Following similar seasonal patterns as “Historic” occupancy

Strong base being built for next

summer season


Market Forecast – what does the future hold?


2019 Hotel ForecastA largely positive picture

Brussels, Paris, Cologne, Barcelona,

Buenos Aires

Recovery ModePerformance on the

rebound

Hot MarketsIn high demand

Minor Growing PainsSupply growth impact

Steady GainsStable performance &

outlook

Amsterdam, Warsaw, Munich, Tokyo, Beijing,

Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney

Glasgow, Moscow, Edinburgh, Dublin, Manchester, Dubai, Birmingham, Leeds, Stuttgart, Hamburg,London, Heathrow,

Frankfurt

Sao Paolo, Hong Kong, Dusseldorf, Abu Dhabi,

Sydney, Rome, Singapore, Athens, Budapest, Milan, Berlin, Gatwick, Zurich, Vienna, Prague, Beijing,


Dublin – what does the future look like post supply increase

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007

Dublin Demand Dublin Supply Dublin RevPAR

EUR €, Historic 2007-2017, Forecast 2018-2022 (Indexed to 2007)


79.3%2019

83.2%2018

€1472019

€1452018

€1172019

€1202018

MARKET FORECAST – Dublin – expecting a small occupancy decline EUR €, Forecasted - Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, GBP, 2018 and 2019


ADR & Occupancy

6.4%2018

1.6%2019

0.2%2018

-4.7%2019

6.6%2018

-3.2%2019

MARKET FORECAST – Dublin – bigger occupancy decline in 2019EUR €, Forecasted Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR % Chg. GBP, 2018 & 2019



Thank You!

www.str.com

Sarah Duignan – [email protected]

bank of ireland hotel sector briefing - think business · active pipeline london –supply &...

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