barclays global financial services conference, fredrik rystedt nordea, new york, 13 september 2010

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Barclays Capital 2010 Global Financial Services Conference New York, 13 September 2010 Fredrik Rystedt Group CFO

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Page 1: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

Barclays Capital 2010 Global Financial Services Conference New York, 13 September 2010

Fredrik RystedtGroup CFO

Page 2: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

2

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward- looking statements as a result of various factors.

Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate, (iii) change in the regulatory environment and other government actions and (iv) change in interest rate and foreign exchange rate levels.

This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward- looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

Page 3: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

3

Macroeconomic stabilisation in the Nordic region

Growth rates expected to be solid in the Nordic countries – strong growth in H1 10

In 2010, all Nordic countries are expected to have:

Positive growth rates

Modest inflation

Relatively strong public finances

Improvements in labour markets

GDP growth, %, y/y

Source: Nordea Markets

Public finances, % of GDP

08 09 10 11 12-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0 % of GDP % of GDP

USA

Euro area

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

Norway +12-18%

[GDP H1 to be inserted]

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q409 10

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5% y/y GDP % y/y

Sweden Denmark Norway Finland

Page 4: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

4

Continued strong customer business

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Impaired loans

Income in Corporate segment

Income in Household segment

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold customers

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Lending volumes

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Total income

Page 5: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

5

Result highlights

EURm H1/10 H1/09 Chg % H2/09 Chg %

Net interest income 2,484 2,661 -7 2,620 -5

Net fee and commission income 1,013 793 28 900 13

Net result from items at fair value 887 1,109 -20 837 6

Other income 80 75 7 78 3

Total income 4,464 4,638 -4 4,435 1

Staff costs -1,388 -1,352 3 -1,372 1

Total expenses -2,350 -2,206 7 -2,306 2

Profit before loan losses 2,114 2,432 -13 2,129 -1

Net loan losses -506 -781 -35 -705 -28

Operating profit 1,608 1,651 -3 1,424 13

Net profit 1,182 1,245 -5 1,073 10

Risk-adjusted profit 1,194 1,524 -22 1,262 -5

Page 6: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

6

1,305 1,2991,235 1,249

1,321

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

NII held up well, despite the low interest rate level

Solid trend in customer operations continues

Lending and deposit volumes up

Margins stable

Remains subdued by the low interest rate levels

Lower contribution from Group Treasury

Slight increase in average funding cost when maturing long-term funding was prolonged at higher market rates

Page 7: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

7

% change in unchanged currencyQ210/

Q110

Q210/

Q209

Total lending, excl. reversed repurchase agreements 2 4

– Nordic household mortgages 2 9

– Nordic consumer lending 1 7

– Nordic corporates 2 0

– New European Markets 4 1

– FID and Shipping 3 -3

Total deposits, excl. repurchase agreements -1 -1

– Nordic households 2 3

– Nordic corporates 1 1

– New European Markets -2 -6

– FID and Shipping 4 -19

Underlying volume trends

Page 8: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

8

Interest rate sensitivity - 3 components

Structural interest income risk (SIIR)

Reflecting the effect on NII from re-pricing gaps*

Dynamic effects on net interest income

Changes in deposit margins – mainly transaction accounts

Market risk in the interest-bearing investment portfolios

Market risk has an immediate effect on the net result from items at fair value

Effect from higher market rates, 100 bps Q2/10 Q1/10

EURm

Annualised positive impact on Net interest income, approx. 430 450

Non-recurring negative impact on Net result from items at fair value, approx.

-230 -100

* Accumulated mismatch between assets and liabilities with an interest rate duration of less than 12 months, with the assumptions that non-maturity accounts are re- priced immediately following a interest rate change, without effecting margins

Page 9: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

9

412

463 475

538

437

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

Strong net fee and commission income

Higher income contribution from corporate advice

Continued strong performance in the savings area

High activity in capital markets

Page 10: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

10

Net result from items at fair value, EURm

198 221

325

515

594

486

351

548

339

Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Nordic Banking and Institutional & International BankingTotal net fair value result

Strong demand for risk management products remains

Capital markets activities in customer areas¹ continues to perform well, although down 4% from strong first half last year

Market volatility increased corporate demand for fixed income and FX products

Continued strong Life & Pensions results

Lower contribution from Group Treasury and Capital Markets unallocated

¹ Nordic Banking and Institutional & International Banking

² Including one-off of EUR 50m – Nordito and PBS

2

Page 11: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

11

EURm

687 702 687 701

392 382471 438 445

670

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Staff costs Other expenses

1 116 1 087

1 2191 164

Expenses in line with outlook

1 186Cost management remains firm

Increase in Q2 related to Group initiatives and currency effects

Total expenses up 6% compared to same quarter last year

Up 1% adjusted for currency effects

Page 12: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

12

Basel III – broad agreement on changes and implementation plan

Page 13: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

13

Broad agreement in July 2010 on Basel III changes and implementation plan

Nordea anticipates final details towards the end of the year

Uncertainty remains high – questions around NSFR and leverage ratio

In good position for regulation and buffers, above leverage ratio threshold

Liquidity changes in right direction, but still challenging for the industry

Increased cost of capital expected, likely to impact pricing to customers

Oct 2010July 2010 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Jan 2018

Basel release of details for 2012 and new

proposals for 2018

Basel Oversight body, broad agreement

Basel Committee meeting Implementation

capital regulation + LCR

Implementation leverage ratio +

NSFR

G20 meeting

Test/observation phase for leverage ratio +

NSFR 2013-2017

Page 14: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

14

Strong capital position maintained – and strong funding despite challenging quarter

9.2 9.2 9.010.3 10.1 10.0

Q2/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II

Core tier 1 capital ratio (excl. hybrids), %

Core tier 1 ratio 10.0%

High volume increase, but stabilising rating migration, affect RWA

EUR 20.9bn of long-term funding issued in H1 2010

In June, after several weeks of no market supply, Nordea reopened the senior unsecured market

22 23

31

20.9

2007 2008 2009 H1 2010

Total long-term funding issued, EURbn

Page 15: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

15

Journey to Great Nordea

Page 16: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

16

Great Nordea framework

Profit orientation & prudence

Ambitious vision & targets

Strong customer- oriented values &

culture

Growth to free up resources to improve customer satisfactionGrowth to create value to our shareholders

Without this as the foundation, there is no bank – through the cycle

Need to set targets to be able to reach the goalsMotivation to perform extraordinarily

Nine countries, and everything differentCommon values and platform to form one team

Rationale

Clear growth strategy

Page 17: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

17

One of the most stable profit development among banks in Europe

Profit before tax development through the financial crisis (Indexed)

Index = 100

Profit orientation and prudence

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

07Q1

07Q2

07Q3

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

09Q2

09Q3

09Q4

10Q1

Nordea

European peers*Nordic peers**

* Aggregate of a selected number of banks in the European peer group: BBVA, Commerzbank, Erste, Intesa Sanpaolo, KBC, Santander, UniCredit

** Nordic peers: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

Page 18: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

18

%

Source: Swedish Riksbank, Standard & Poor’s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nor

dea

HSB

C

DnB

NO

R

Dex

ia

SEB

Sw

edba

nk

SHB

KB

C

Sant

ande

r

Bar

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s

Cre

dit S

uiss

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Cre

dit A

gric

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Soc

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Gén

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LBBW

Uni

Cre

dit

Inte

sa S

anpa

olo

Dan

ske

Ban

k

Deu

tsch

e Ba

nk

BN

P P

arib

as AIB

Bay

eris

che

LB

UBS

Citig

roup

Strongest capital position among a selected group of major international banks

Risk-adjusted capital ratios

Profit orientation and prudence

Page 19: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

19

Delivery on long-term targets

Top quartile

Total shareholder return 1 Jan 2007- 16 Aug 2010

Risk-adjusted profit rolling 4 quarters development

2007 – Q2 2010

RoE 2007 – Q2 2010Nordea has reported one of the highest average return on equity (RoE) of Nordic

peers*, 14.4%*Nordic peers: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

41.4%

25.5%

Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q4/ 08 Q1/ 09 Q2/ 09 Q3/ 09 Q4/ 09 Q1/ 10 Q2/ 10

Rolling four quarters compared with FY 2006 EUR 1,957mLong-term target for average yearly growth

Ambitious vision & targets

0.0

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Allie

d Iri

sh B

anks

RBS

Ban

k of

Irel

and

Com

mer

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k

Lloy

ds

KB

C

Uni

cred

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Soc

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Gen

eral

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Sw

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SEB

Inte

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Bar

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Dan

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Ban

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Ers

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BB

VA

BN

P P

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San

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Nor

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DnB

NO

R

SH

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Page 20: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

20

Strong customer-oriented values and culture – become part of DNA

Foundation:Profit orientation and

prudent cost, risk and capital management

A Great European Bank,acknowledged for its people, creating

superior value for customers and shareholders

Great customer experiences It’s all about people One Nordea team

Values

Page 21: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

2121

Customer satisfaction improving versus competitors

Nordea

2007 2009

Peers

-0.6 3.9

71.267.6

70.6+0.9

- 3.6

CSI index (aggregate) 2007-2009*

71.5

*Corporate and high involvement customers, corresponding to Gold and Silver segment customers

Values

Page 22: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

22

Prudent growth strategy – Group initiatives and strong business development

Page 23: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

23

We continue on the journey to Great and to deliver on our long-term target

Great Nordea

07 08 09 10 11 12

Middle of the road

Keep income growth momentum

Cost, risk and capital take the lead

Enable us to accelerate out of the crisis

Profitable organic growth Prudent growth

Organic growth strategy Next level strategy based on stronger position

Group initiatives launched to support the strategy

Next generation of initiatives launched

Page 24: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

24

Nordea has built the platform

One customer team

Customer base

Capital position

Trustworthy brand name

Quality of people

One value chain

Great customer experiences

Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management

It’s all about people One Nordea team

A great European bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior

value for customers and shareholders

Customer-oriented values~ 8 m household

customers in programmes, 0.7 m corporate

One of strongest capital and funding positions in Europe

~6,000 PBAs, SRMs and RMs trained in -09

Nordea brand stronger than ever

1,400 branches (160 corporate), contact

centres and netbank

E.g., top Morningstar ratings, No 1

Greenwich rating

Proximity

Demand-driven products

Growth strategy

Page 25: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

25

Prudent growth strategy supported by next generation of Group initiatives

Increase business with existing Nordic customers and attract new customers

Supplement Nordic growth through

investments in New European Markets

Exploit global and European business lines

Take Nordea to the next level of operational efficiency, support sustained growth

1. Future distribution2. New customer acquisition3. Growth plan Finland

6. Growth plan Poland

5. Customer-driven Markets business

4. Growth plan CMB Sweden

8. Product platforms7. Top league IT and operations

9. Infrastructure upgrade

Growth strategy

Page 26: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

26

Solid trend accelerated in 2010 – up 7.2% from one year ago

110,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers in H1 2010 – more than 70% new customers in Nordea

Improved market share in all countries

Significant increase of number of pro-active customer meetings

Continued strong customer demand in household segment – increased volumes with stable margins

Total income in household segment up 5%

Household strategy delivery: Value proposition attracts customers in premium segments

2,6902,812

2,885

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold customers, ‘000

0.3

0.1 0.1

0.2

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Page 27: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

27

136 139 144

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Increased business confidence - lending volumes up 4% in H1 2010

Continued strong demand for risk management products

Improved market share in Corporate Banking - strategy to build house-bank relations proven successful

New area established – Corporate Merchant Banking and Capital Markets

Ensure that all service and product competences of Nordea reach the large corporate customers

Headed by newly recruited – Casper von Koskull

Corporate strategy delivery: High activity – income up 7% in H1

Corporate lending, EURbn

0.1 0.1

-0.1

0.1

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Page 28: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

28

Rating distribution

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

6+ 6 6- 5+ 5 5- 4+ 4 4- 3+ 3 3- 2+ 2 2- 1+ 1 1-

Rating

EAD

(%)

06.2010 12.2009

Improved average risk weights following growth focused to stronger corporates

Decreases during 1H 2010Increases during 1H 2010

Page 29: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

29

Increase in corporate lending margins

Corporate lending margins, average in the lending book, %

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Banking Denmark

Banking Norway

Nordic Banking total

Banking Finland

Banking Sweden

Page 30: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

30

Concluding remarks

Page 31: Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Fredrik Rystedt Nordea, New York, 13 September 2010

31

Key messagesWe are delivering according to our plan

Credit quality improving – impaired loans decreased in second quarter

More clarity with the agreement around Basel III, but some uncertainty remains

Continued strong customer businessIncome from corporate customers up 7% and from household customers up 5% in H1

Increased lending, deposits and AuM volumes

Solid inflow of new customers – increased market shares in all markets

Positive development in corporate finance business – relationship banking approach further strengthened

Focus on prudent growth and the execution of the Group initiativesOn track in all areas