barclays global guide

ECONOMICS RESEARCH Global | 23 March 2012

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 20

GLOBAL TRADERS' GUIDE Key data and events US

We and consensus expect a 0.4% m/m rise in personal income (last: 0.3%) and a 0.6% m/m increase in personal spending (last: 0.2%) in Feb (Friday). The spending component reflects a 0.3% m/m gain in real terms and a 0.3% m/m increase in the PCE price index (last: 0.2%). Feb durable goods orders are expected to increase 3.0% m/m (Wed; consensus: 2.9%, last: 3.7%). We expect Q4 GDP growth to be revised up to 3.2% in the 3rd est. from 3.0% in the 2nd (Thurs; consensus: 3.0%).

We project a 0.4% m/m decline in the S&P Case-Shiller home price index in Jan (Tues; consensus: -0.3%, last: -0.5%). We look for Feb pending home sales to rise 1.0% m/m (Mon; consensus: 0.9%, last: 2.0%). The Mar Chicago PMI is expected to increase to 64.5 (Fri; consensus: 63.0, last: 64.0).

We and consensus look for an increase to 75.0 (Fri; last: 74.3) in the Mar University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment. We look for a decline to 67.0 in the Mar Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence (Tues; consensus: 70.0, last: 70.8).

Europe The main focus next week will be on the Ecofin (Fri and Sat) meeting; market focus

will be squarely placed on the outcome of increasing the EFSF/ESM ceiling. We are above the consensus in expecting the euro area Mar “flash” HICP inflation rate to have declined to 2.6% y/y from 2.7% y/y previously (Fri; consensus: 2.5%). We look for a correction with the Feb euro area M3 release, taking the y/y rate down to 1.7% from 2.5% previously (Wed). We expect the German Mar IFO’s recent upward trend to take a pause at 109.2 (Mon; consensus: 109.7, last: 109.6). We expect German Feb retail sales to show signs of stabilisation, increasing by 1.5% m/m after the Jan 1.6% m/m drop (Fri; consensus: 1.5%). We expect French Feb household consumption to post a 0.6% m/m rise (Fri; consensus: 0.2%, last:-0.4%).

In the UK, the main event next week is the release of the final estimate of Q4 GDP and we expect it to be unchanged at -0.2% q/q and 0.7% y/y (Wed; consensus: -0.2% q/q and 0.7% y/y). We expect the Mar CBI total sales balance to have fallen to -10 (Tues; consensus: -7, last: -2). We forecast unchanged Feb net consumer credit at £0.1bn (Thur; consensus: £0.2bn), net mortgage lending of £1.0bn (consensus: £1.5bn, last: £1.6bn) and the number of mortgage approvals at 56k (consensus: 58.5k, last: 58.7k). We expect the Mar consumer confidence to have improved slightly to -28 (consensus: -29, last: -29).

Japan We believe Feb industrial production rose 1.0% m/m (Thur; consensus: 1.3%, last:

1.9%), a third consecutive increase. We estimate that the Feb nationwide CPI ex-perishables (core) fell 0.1% y/y, matching Jan's decline (Thur; consensus: -0.1%).

Marion Laboure

+33 (0) 1 4458 3264

[email protected]

www.barcap.com

Data Preview & Review United States 2

Euro Area 4

United Kingdom 6

Japan 7

Emerging Asia 8

EEMEA 9

Latin America 11

Global Weekly Calendar 12

Critical Events Calendar 18

Forecast gross and net issuance by countries 20

Barclays | Global Traders' Guide

23 March 2012 2

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: UNITED STATES Dean Maki, Michael Gapen, Peter Newland, Cooper Howes

Review of last week’s data releases

Main indicators Period Previous Barclays Actual Comments

NAHB housing market, index Mar 28 R 31 28 Three of four regional indices increased

Housing starts, thous saar Feb 706 R 720 698 Strong increase in multi-family component

Existing home sales, mn saar Feb 4.63 R 4.64 4.59 Decline centered in single-family component

FHFA purchase-only HPI, % m/m (y/y) Jan 0.1 (-1.6) R 0.2 (0.1) 0.0 (-0.7) Slowest pace of decline on y/y basis since 2009

Leading indicators index, % m/m Feb 0.2 R 0.6 R 0.7 Driven by initial claims and building permits

Preview of the next week

Monday 26 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

7:00 Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (FOMC non-voter) in Paris

8:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke (FOMC Voter) speaks in Arlington

10:00 Pending home sales, % m/m Feb 4.6 -1.9 2.0 1.0 0.9 Pending home sales: We have penciled in a rise in pending home sales of 1.0% in February, following a 2.0% gain in January. Thiswould lift the y/y increase above 10% for the first time since August 2011. Gains in January and February may partly reflect favorable weather conditions (with some evidence that foot traffic of prospective buyers increased sharply early in the year) butwe believe that the positive trend in this measure of sales will persist.

Tuesday 27 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

9:00 S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI, %m/m (y/y) Jan -0.7 (-3.6) -0.7 (-3.8) -0.5 (-4.0) -0.4 (-3.8) -0.3

10:00 Consumer confidence, index Mar 64.8 61.5 70.8 67.0 70.0

12:35 Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks in London

12:45 Fed Chairman Bernanke (FOMC Voter) speaks in Washington

13:20 Dallas Fed President Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Louisiana

21:00 St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Beijing S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI: We are looking for a 0.4% decline in the S&P Case-Shiller home price index in January, continuing the more negative tone to this measure of home prices compared with others, such as the FHFA purchase-only index. However, recent reports have shown some signs of improvement, with the proportion of cities reporting price gains up in January, and we expectprices to gradually stabilize in the coming months.

Consumer confidence: We project the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence to fall to 67.0 in March, down from 70.8 in February. In our view, the spike in February confidence was likely overstated, but the longer-term outlook remains positive as labor markets continue to improve.

Wednesday 28 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

8:30 Durable goods orders, % m/m Feb 4.2 3.3 -3.7 3.0 2.9

8:30 Durable goods ex transportation, % m/m Feb 0.3 2.3 -3.0 2.5 1.5 Durable goods: We expect durable goods orders to increase by 3.0% m/m in February. Within this we are looking for a small increase in vehicles, defense and aircraft components, the latter partly offsetting a large decline in January. We have also penciled in a 1.5% increase in core capital goods orders – following a sharp 3.9% drop in January, which we ascribe to the tendency for orders to decline at the start of a quarter and rebound in subsequent months. For the same reason we are also looking for a rebound in core shipments.

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 8:30 Final GDP, % q/q saar Q4 1.3 1.8 3.0 P 3.2 3.0

8:30 Final consumer spending, % q/q saar Q4 0.7 1.7 2.1 P 2.2 2.1

8:30 Final GDP price index, % q/q saar Q4 2.5 2.6 0.9 P 0.9 0.9

8:30 Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 24-Mar 365 (356) 353 (356) 348 (355) 345 (353) -


23 March 2012 3

10:00 US: New York Fed Vice President Dudley (FOMC Voter) speaks on Eurozone Aid in Washington

12:15 Atlanta Fed president Lockhart (FOMC voter) speaks in Atlanta

12:45 Fed Chairman Bernanke (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington

13:00 Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (FOMC non-voter) in Wilmington

18:45 Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC voter) speaks in Charlotte GDP: We expect Q4 GDP growth to be revised up to 3.2% in the third estimate, from 3.0% in the second. This is likely to partly reflect a larger boost from inventory accumulation, given upward revisions to retail, wholesale and manufacturing inventorylevels, although this could be partly tempered by a downward revision to net trade. We are also looking for a small upward revision to goods consumption growth, given stronger retail sales numbers for the period. In addition, the possibility of anupward revision to services consumption poses an upside risk in our view, particularly related to spending on healthcare given that the Quarterly Services Survey (which is used as an input into the third GDP estimate but not the second) showed stronggrowth in hospital revenues.

Friday 30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

8:30 Personal income, % m/m Feb 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4

8:30 Personal spending, % m/m Feb 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6

8:30 PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.1 (2.7) 0.1 (2.5) 0.2 (2.4) 0.3 (2.3) -

8:30 Core PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.1 (1.8) 0.2 (1.9) 0.2 (1.9) 0.1 (1.9) 0.1 (1.9)

9:45 Chicago PMI, index Mar 62.2 60.2 64.0 64.5 63.0

9:55 Michigan consumer sentiment- f, index Mar 75.0 75.3 74.3 P 75.0 75.0 Personal income and spending: We expect a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.6% increase in personal spending in February. Within the income number we are looking for a solid 0.5% rise in wages and salaries component, consistent with thegains in average hourly earnings and aggregate hours worked in the employment report. We have also penciled in gains in rental and interest income. On the consumption side, our forecast reflects our expectation of a 0.3% gain in both real spending and thePCE price index. Nominal sales growth is likely to reflect strength in spending on goods (consistent with the February retail and vehicle sale reports). Meanwhile, we expect the significant drag from utilities services consumption to abate somewhat inFebruary, relative to the sharp declines recorded in December and January.

Chicago PMI: Both the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State manufacturing indices moved higher in March, and we look for thistrend to continue with the Chicago PMI. We expect a modest increase to 64.5 from 64.0 in February.

U. of Michigan consumer sentiment: We look for the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment to rise to 75.0 in thefinal March release, up from 74.3 in the preliminary release. While the rise in gasoline prices weighed heavily on sentiment in thepreliminary report, we expect that equity markets, which have moved higher and seen reduced volatility, will provide a modest boost to confidence.


23 March 2012 4

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: EURO AREA Julian Callow, Marion Laboure, Fabio Fois, Francois Cabau, Thorsten Polleit, Thomas Harjes, Marcus Widen, Fabrice Montagne



Germany: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.6 (3.4) 0.6 (3.3) 0.4 (3.2) Less stronger rise than anticipated E17: Flash composite PMI, index Mar 49.3 50.6 48.7 Out of the woods? Not quite. Euro area Q1 GDP seen at

-0.3% q/q

E17: Flash consumer confidence, index Mar -20.3 -20.1 -19.0 Euro area consumer and business confidence diverge in March. Consumer outlook is grim

Preview of week ahead

Sunday 25 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Germany: State election in Saarland - Spain: Elections in Asturias and Andalucía

Germany – State election in Saarland: Could lead to a SPD/CDU coalition, after several other coalition models (including aCDU/FDP/The Greens coalition) have failed in the past few years. In the polls, the SPD (34-35%) has a slight lead over the CDU (33-34%).

Spain – Elections in Andalucía: The government's conservative popular party (PP) leads in the polls. PP has never governed in Andalucia, which is the largest region in terms of territory and population. Assuming the polls are right, then all the large regions would be governed by conservative parties, and this should be a positive for the future ability of the government to implement the fiscal adjustment plan and control the spending of the regions.

Monday 26 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- E17: EU General Affairs council meet in Brussels - Italy: PM Monti speaks at the Nuclear Summit in Korea

04:40 E17: ECB Executive Board member Cœuré speaks at Barclays Capital Conference in Tokyo 11:00 Germany: FM Schaeuble speaks at a CDU/CSU event on financial market oversight in Germany 16:00 E17: ECB President Draghi speaks at Germany's BDB banking association's annual reception in Berlin 08:00 Italy: Consumer confidence, index Mar 91.8 91.8 94.2 95.0 92.8 08:00 Germany: IFO business climate, index Mar 107.3 108.3 109.6 109.2 109.7 08:00 Germany: IFO current assessment, index Mar 116.7 116.3 117.5 117.0 117.0 08:00 Germany: IFO business expectations, index Mar 98.6 100.9 102.3 102.0 102.8 16:00 France: Jobseekers net change (sa), k Feb 22.4 20.3 13.4 14.0 15.2

Germany – IFO: On the back of the weak March PMIs, we expect that the IFO’s recent upward trend will take a pause.

Tuesday 27 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus08:00 E17: EU President Juncker attends the euro zone crisis debate in Brussels 11:00 Norway: CB Governor Olsen speaks at the "20th anniversary of the Czech National Bank" in Prague 06:45 France: Consumer confidence indicator, index Mar 80 81 82 82 82 07:00 Germany: GfK consumer confidence, index Apr 5.7 5.9 6.0 - 6.1 07:30 Neth: Final GDP, % q/q Q4 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 P -0.7 -

Wednesday 28 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Italy: PM Monti visit China and Japan (to 31/03)

12:00 Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks on ``Rebalancing Europe" at Chatham House in London 15:30 E17: ECB Executive Board member Constâncio speaks on “How can macro-prudential regulation be effective?” in Frankfurt 16:00 Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks on "Germany's future" in Bielefeld

- Germany: Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.6 (2.2) -0.4 (2.2) 0.9 (2.5) 0.3 (2.4) - - Germany: Bavaria CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.4) -0.4 (2.3) 0.9 (2.6) 0.3 (2.4) - - Germany: Hesse CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.5 (1.7) -0.3 (1.9) 0.8 (2.2) 0.3 (2.1) - - Germany: North Rhine Westphalia CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (1.7) -0.4 (1.8) 0.6 (1.9) 0.3 (1.7) - - Germany: Brandenburg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.6 (2.1) -0.4 (2.2) 0.8 (2.5) 0.3 (2.2) - - Germany: Saxony CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.2) -0.4 (2.3) 0.7 (2.4) 0.3 (2.3) - - Germany: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.1) -0.4 (2.1) 0.7 (2.3) 0.3 (2.1) 0.3 (2.1)


23 March 2012 5

- Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.3) -0.5 (2.3) 0.9 (2.5) 0.3 (2.3) 0.4 (2.3) 05:30 France: Final GDP, % q/q Q4 -0.1 0.3 0.2 P 0.2 0.2 07:00 Sweden: Consumer Confidence, index Mar -7.4 -1.3 -3.2 -1.0 - 07:00 Sweden: Manufacturing confidence Indicator, net balance Mar -11 -14 -13 -12 - 07:00 Sweden: Economic Tendency Indicator, index Mar 93.0 91.6 93.0 94 - 08:00 E17: M3, % y/y Feb 2.5 2.0 2.5 1.7 - 08:00 E17: Private sector loans, % y/y Feb 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.1 - 08:00 Italy: Business confidence, index Mar 92.5 92.1 91.5 90 91.8

Euro area – M3: Euro area M3 changes from month to month have become volatile: we look for a correction with the Februaryrelease taking the y/y rate down to 1.7% from 2.5% previously. Meanwhile we look for some unwinding of the previous month's recovery in bank loans (on account of transactions with other financial institutions), so taking the y/y rate of the ECB's adjustedseries down to 1.1%, from 1.6% in January.

Sweden – Manufacturing confidence: Although there is still great uncertainty about global growth, we expect manufacturing confidence to gain 1 point to -12 in light of positive signs at the beginning of the month, but still remain well below the -4.3 historical average.

Sweden – Consumer confidence: We expect consumer confidence (CCI) to show a slight improvement from February, with again of 2.2 points to -1.0 in March. Indeed, we expect the recovery in equity markets and less negative news on the globaleconomic environment to outweigh the negative domestic Q4 GDP numbers.

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus07:00 Norway: Unemployment rate, % Mar 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 - 07:00 Spain: Preliminary HICP, % y/y Mar 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 07:55 Germany: Unemployment level, mn (k nsa) Mar 2.9 (67) 2.8 (301) 2.8 (28) - - 07:00 Spain: Preliminary HICP, % y/y Mar 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 09:00 E17: Final consumer confidence, index Mar -20.7 -20.3 -19.0 P -19.0 -19.0 09:00 E17: Industrial confidence, index Mar -7.2 -7.0 -5.8 -7.0 -5.8 09:15 Belgium: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.0 (3.5) 0.7 (3.7) 0.6 (3.7) 0.3 (3.4) -

Norway – Registered unemployment rate: In March we expect the registered unemployment rate to decrease from 2.7% to2.6%. Indeed, with this seasonally normal movement we expect the Norwegian labour market to remain very strong with few signs of an imminent weakening.

Euro area – European Commission industrial confidence: In the wake of the significant downside surprise, we have had last week withthe “flash” March PMI composite and particularly in the manufacturing sector (1.3 points drop to 47.7), we look for the industrial sectorconfidence of the European Commission survey to edge down also, from -5.8 to -7.0, going back to its January level.

Friday 30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- E17: ECB Executive Board Member González-Páramo speaks at Cernobbio event in Italy (to 31/03)

07:00 E17: Informal Eurogroup meeting 10:30 E27: ECOFIN meeting (to 31/03) 06:00 Germany: Retail sales, sa % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.3 (1.3) 0.1 (0.3) -1.6 (1.6) 1.5 (1.7) 1.2 (0.8) 06:45 France: Hhsld consum. goods, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.0 (-1.7) -0.2 (-2.5) -0.4 (-2.2) 0.6 (-2.0) 0.2 (-2.4) 07:00 Spain: Adjusted retail sales, % y/y Feb -7.3 -5.6 -6.0 - -3.6 07:00 Swi: KoF leading indicator Mar 0.02 -0.15 -0.12 - 0.08 09:00 E17: Flash HICP, % y/y Mar 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 09:00 Italy: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.3 (3.7) -1.8 (3.4) 0.2 (3.4) 2.1 (3.5) 2.1 (3.3) 09:00 Italy: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.4 (3.3) 0.3 (3.2) 0.4 (3.3) 0.4 (3.3) -

Germany – Retail sales: Retail sales should show signs of stabilisation but high oil prices continue to weigh on purchasing power.

France – Household consumption of goods: We expect monthly consumption to post 0.6% m/m (but -2.0% y/y) after -0.4% m/m in January, with all the components on the supportive side except energy consumption.

Euro area – Inflation: We are above the consensus in expecting the euro area “flash” HICP inflation rate to have declined to 2.6% y/y in March from 2.7% y/y previously (consensus: 2.5% y/y).

Europe – Ecofin: At the Ecofin meeting, the market focus will be squarely placed on the outcome of increasing the EFSF/ESM ceiling.


23 March 2012 6

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: UNITED KINGDOM Blerina Uruçi


Main Indicators Period Previous Barclays Actual Comments

CPI, % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.5 (3.6) 0.4 (3.2) 0.6 (3.4)

RPI, % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.6 (3.9) 0.5 (3.5) 0.8 (3.7)

RPIx, % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.6 (4.0) 0.5 (3.5) 0.8 (3.8)

Inflation fell less than expected owing to higher-than-expected clothing and footwear inflation

CBI industrial trends, total orders Mar -3 -9 -8 Industrial orders stabilised in March

MPC minutes, Bank Rate vote Mar 9-0 9-0 9-0

MPC minutes, Asset purchase vote Mar 7-2 9-0 7-2

Two MPC members, Posen and Miles, voted to increased QE by a further £25bn

PSNBx, £bn Feb -7.9 R 9.0 15.2

PSNB, £ bn Feb -10.2 R 6.0 12.9

PSNCR, £ bn Feb -32.0 R -2.0 -7.8

Higher-than-expected public borrowing figures dispel expectations the government will undershoot its target

Budget announcement for FY 12-13 Mar - - - Chancellor delivered a fiscally neutral budget

Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.3 (1.4) R -0.4 (2.5) -0.8 (1.0)

Retail sales excl. fuel, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.6 (1.1) R -0.5 (2.4) -0.8 (1.0)

Retail sales fell in February after two consecutive monthly increases

Nationwide consumer confidence, index Feb 47.0 - 44.0 Consumer confidence weakened slightly

BBA lending data Feb - - - Mortgage activity slowed in February



There are no data releases scheduled


11:00 CBI distributive trades, total sales Mar 9 -22 -2 -10 -7

CBI distributive trades: We forecast a fall in the total sales balance to -10 from -2 previously. This should be to a large extent a correction after the sharp improvement reported the previous month.


09:30 GDP final release, % q/q (y/y) Q4 0.0 (0.5) 0.5 (0.4) -0.2 (0.7) P -0.2 (0.7) -0.2 (0.7)

09:30 Current account, £ bn Q4 -7.4 -7.4 -15.2 -8.9 -8.4

Quarterly national accounts: We expect Q4 GDP to be unrevised at -0.2% q/q and 0.7% y/y. We expect the current account deficit to narrow significantly to £8.9bn from £15.2bn previously owing to an improvement in the trade deficit as well as the income account. The quarterly national accounts will also provide more details on the GDP breakdown as well as information on household disposable income and savings ratio.

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

09:30 Consumer credit, £ bn Feb 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2

09:30 Mortgage approvals, k Feb 54.4 55.0 58.7 56.0 58.5

09:30 Mortgage lending, £ bn Feb 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.5

09:30 M4 money supply, % m/m Feb -0.5 (-2.5) -1.4 (-2.5) 1.6 (-1.8) - -

BoE credit data: We expect net consumer credit unchanged at £0.1bn. We forecast mortgage activity to have slowed slightly in February with the number of mortgage approvals falling to 56k from 58.7k previously and net mortgage lending to fall to £1.0bn from £1.6bn.


00:01 GfK consumer confidence, index Mar -33 -29 -29 -28 -29

GfK consumer confidence: We expect the consumer confidence index to improve slightly to -28 from -29 previously as easing price pressures and expectations that the economy will avoid a double dip should have supported confidence.

26-30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

- Nationwide house price Index, % m/m (y/y) Mar -0.2 (1.0) -0.3 (0.6) 0.6 (0.9) 0.3 (1.0) 0.2 (0.8)


23 March 2012 7

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: JAPAN Kyohei Morita, Yuichiro Nagai, James Barber

Review of this week’s data

Main indicators Period Previou

s BarCap Actual Comments

Index of all-industry activity (y/y)

Jan 1.6 -0.7 -1.0 Downturn reflects heavy weighting of the tertiary index, which fell due to a special factor (tax deduction caps imposed on life insurance policies concluded from January onward).

Reuters Tankan DI, mfg/non-mfg

Mar -11/+5 NA +2/+5 Sentiment improved sharply in manufacturing, reflecting JPY depreciation since the BoJ ease on 14 February. Further improvements likely as post-earthquake reconstruction takes hold.

Trade balance NSA (JPY bn) SA (JPY bn)

Feb

-1477 -494

-183 -330

33

-313

The trade account, which logged a record deficit in January, showed a surplus again in February. Based on this, we estimate that the current account (release: 9 April) will also return to the black after slipping into the red. Seasonally adjusted, however, the trade account logged a 12th consecutive deficit, a trend that is likely to remain intact until at least early 2013 due to special factors linked to last year’s earthquake (eg, upward push on imports due to reconstruction demand and the need for nuclear alternatives such as LNG). Longer term, we believe the current account will begin to show a structural deficit as early as 2018 based on demographics and the hollowing-out of industry.

Preview of the week ahead


8:50 Corporate services price index (% y/y) Feb -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4

CSPI: We expect a slight decline in February and expect the CSPI to hold roughly flat through H1 12, given the downward pressure on the Baltic Dry Index and the impact of earlier JPY appreciation.


8:30 National CPI ex-perishables, core (% y/y) Feb -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

8:30 Tokyo CPI ex-perishables, core (% y/y) Mar -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3

8:30 Jobs/applicants ratio (X) Feb 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.74

8:30 Unemployment rate (%) Feb 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6

8:50 Industrial production (% m/m) Feb -2.7 3.8 1.9 1.0 1.3

CPI: We expect the core CPI to remain in negative y/y territory until around mid-2013 and do not see inflation approaching the BoJ’s price stability “goal” of 1% y/y for at least the next two years.

Employment data: We look for the modest trend of improvement to remain intact, but note that the number of long-term unemployed remains elevated.

Industrial production: We estimate that production rose for a third consecutive month. In transport machinery, METI forecast indices point to a decline in February but another increase in March, supported by the revival of Eco Car subsidies.


23 March 2012 8

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: ASIA Rahul Bajoria, Joey Chew, Hamish Pepper


Main indicators Period Previous BarCap Actual Comments

Thailand: BoT policy rate – 3.0 3.0 3.0 The central bank flagged inflation risks amid stronger growth.

New Zealand: GDP (% q/q) Q4 0.7 0.8 0.3 We believe domestic activity will pick up in Q1, with household spending and building activity recovering from a low base.

China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI Mar 49.6 – 48.1 We expect the economy to slow further into Q2.

Taiwan: CBC policy rate – 1.875 1.875 1.875 The focus is now on inflation, although the governor has a bias to "keep moderately loose monetary policy", to support growth.

Singapore: CPI (% y/y) Feb 4.8 4.7 4.6 Core inflation remains persistently high, at 3% - the balance of risks has clearly tilted towards higher inflation.

Taiwan: IP (% y/) Feb -16.8 13 8.4 The unwinding of supply disruptions has been slower than expected, but the uptrend remains intact.



– Vietnam: GDP (% y/y, YTD) Q1 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.4 –

– Thailand: Industrial production (% y/y) Feb -47.3 -25.2 -15.2 -6.9 –

13:00 Singapore: Industrial production (% y/y) Feb -2.3 25.2 -8.8 15 17

Vietnam: Growth to slow marginally in line with seasonal patterns. The main driver expected to be consumer spending as inflation continues to ease.

Thailand: Manufacturing capacity, particularly in commercial vehicles, should drive IP higher on a sequential basis.

Singapore: IP growth likely to rebound on a low base and continued expansion of output, in line with the improvement in the PMI.

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

07:00 Korea: Current account (USD bn) Feb 4.56 2.81 -0.77 2.0

Korea: The goods trade balance (customs basis) shifted back to a surplus in February, as January’s shortfall was caused by Lunar New Year holiday effects.


07:00 Korea: GDP, % q/q (% y/y) – preliminary estimate Q1 0.9 (3.4) 0.8 (3.5) 0.4 (3.4) 1.0 (3.1) –

07:00 Korea: Industrial production (% y/y) Feb 5.8 2.8 -2.0 17 –

Korea: We expect the final estimate of GDP to show a 1% q/q expansion in Q1, but forecast the preliminary estimate (based on two months of data) will come in lower due to Lunar New Year disruptions. Momentum in production and exports is accelerating. Despite the holidays, January’s manufacturing capacity utilisation was the strongest in seven months. Consumer and business confidence have also risen recently, as concerns over a European crisis ease.

Sunday 1 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

08:00 Korea: Exports (% y/y) Mar 8.2 -7.3 20.6 4.0 –

09:00 China: NBS manufacturing PMI Mar 50.3 50.5 51.0 50.1 –

Korea: We expect exports to rise above the record reached in July 2011, before the European debt crisis worsened. Autos and electronics shipments are improving rapidly, although vessel exports likely will remain soft.

China: We look for the NBS PMI to continue to drop, as growth decelerates on softness in investment.


23 March 2012 9

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: EMERGING EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Eldar Vakhitov, Daniel Hewitt, Christian Keller, Vladimir Pantyushin, Jeffrey Schultz, Alia Moubayed, Piotr Chwiejczak


Main indicators Period Previous Barclays

Actual

Comments

South Africa: Current account (% GDP) Q4 -4.1 -4.1 -3.6 Narrower current account deficit in Q4 on the back of lower foreign dividend payments in the quarter

South Africa: Expenditure-side GDP (%, q/q)

Q4 3.2 - 3.2 Strong consumer driven growth in Q4 11, while private sector fixed investment also surprised to the upside

Poland: Sold Industrial output (% y/y) Feb 9.0 7.8 4.3 Driven by cold weather conditions, but also more structural trend behind, so we expect it to range 4-6% y/y in the near term

Poland: PPI (% y/y) Feb 8.0 7.1 6.3

Hungary: Average gross wages (% y/y) Jan 10.1 - 4.3 y/y decline reflects most base effects, average wage level fell slightly

Russia: Disposable income (% y/y) Feb 2.3 3.1

Russia: Real wages (% y/y) Feb 9.0 9.2 13.3 Strong posting partially helped by pre-election spending

Russia: Retail sales real (% y/y) Feb 6.8 7.4 7.7 Wage growth, supplemented by active lending, drives retail sales

Russia: Unemployment rate (%) Feb 6.6 6.5 6.5 Usual seasonal improvement after the winter spike

Russia: Investment in productive capacity (% y/y)

Feb 15.6 11.1 15.1 Positive surprise. Along with consumption, good news for growth

South Africa: CPI (% y/y) Feb 6.3 6.4 6.1 Lower-than-expected and largely on the back of a fall in food prices

South Africa: Formal employment (% y/y)

Q4 2.5 - 1.6 Further modest uptick in formal employment driven largely through a seasonal uptick in the trade sector

Egypt: Deposit rate (%) Mar 9.25 10.25 9.25 Consistent with CBE surprise move to cut reserve requirements

Preview of week ahead Monday 26 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 08:00 Hungary: Retail trade IA (% y/y) Jan 0.6 1.1 1.5 - -0.1

09:00 Poland: Retail sales (% y/y) Feb 12.6 8.6 14.3 7.0 9.9

09:00 Poland: Unemployment rate (%) Feb 12.1 12.5 13.2 13.7 13.5

12:30 Turkey: Industrial confidence Mar 97.2 101.8 107.3 - -

12:30 Turkey: Capacity utilisation (%) Mar 75.5 74.7 72.9 - -

16:30 Israel: Base rate announcement (%) Mar 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50

Hungary: Retail trade volumes have been flat; base effects will likely pull the y/y growth lower in January.

Poland: The labour market is gradually deteriorating which was reflected in the latest PMI data. We think that that momentumwill be reflected in retail sales data as well.

Turkey: We expect both industrial confidence and capacity utilisation to weaken in March.

Israel: The BOI has clearly signalled an intention to pause and see where the economy is headed. Inflation has been declining inrecent months and at 1.7% is in the lower half of the 1-3% inflation target. Growth indicators point to deceleration. However, inflation expectations have recently jumped higher causing the BOI to pause after lowering rates 75bp during this cutting cycle.


13:00 Hungary: Base rate announcement (%) Mar 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

13:00 Turkey: Benchmark repo rate (%) Mar 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75

Hungary: The NBH will likely remain on hold this month after keeping the rate unchanged for the past two months. While inflation has pushed higher to 5.9%, well above the 3% inflation target, this mainly reflects a 200bp VAT rate increase in January. With currency range trading at HUF290-295 per Euro, the NBH has little reason to raise rates further. Cuts will come only afterIMF/EU programme negotiations are completed.

Turkey: We do not expect any change in the repo rate at this MPC meeting. The CBT’s recent renewed focus on TRY stability also makes a cut in the upper band of the interest rate corridor less likely.


23 March 2012 10

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 08:00 Hungary: Unemployment rate (%) Feb 10.6 10.7 11.1 - 11.4

10:00 Croatia: Industrial output (% y/y) Feb -0.3 1.2 -4.9 - -

10:30 South Africa: PPI (% y/y) Feb 10.1 9.8 8.9 7.8 8.1

12:00 Czech: Repo rate announcement (%) Mar 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

- Romania: Interest rate announcement (%) Mar 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25

- South Africa: SARB announces interest rate (%) Mar 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

- Egypt: Constant GDP (% q/q) Q4 -8.6 8.5 2.9 - -

- Israel: Unemployment rate (%) Jan 5.4 5.4 5.4 - -

Hungary: Inflation report Mar

Hungary: Unemployment rate has been rising, apparently signalling weaker economic growth.

Croatia: Likely further contraction in IP could be signal for a negative GDP growth print in Q1.

South Africa: Although we expect PPI to moderate to 7.8% y/y in February, we still expect prices to have risen 0.5% m/m on the back of higher global commodity prices (particularly fuel). We expect the SARB MPC to keep the policy rate on hold given itsongoing concerns related to the global economic environment. Although the SARB is likely to present a slightly improved inflation forecast trajectory for 2012, it is likely to mention that core inflation pressures are building and that demand-driven pressures are creeping into the economy.

Czech Republic: We think the CNB will remain on hold at 0.75% for the 22nd consecutive month. However, with growth weak,fiscal policy tightening, and adjusted inflation in the middle of the 1-3% target, we think the MPC will discuss rate cuts and some MPC members may vote in favour of a cut. Though headline inflation jumped to 3.7% y/y in February, reflecting VAT rate increases.

Romania: The NBR has cut rates 25bp at each of the past three MPC meetings. We expect a further 25bp cut this month and anadditional 25bp cut at the next meeting in early May, bringing the policy rate to 5.0%. Then the NBR should hold because it expects inflation to pick up in H2 12.

Israel: Given indications that growth is moderating, we think the unemployment rate has bottomed out and will rise during 2012.

Friday 30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 07:00 South Africa: Private sector credit (% y/y) Feb 6.2 6.2 7.3 6.9 7.0

08:00 Turkey: Trade balance (USD bn) Feb -7.5 -8.1 -7.0 -7.1 -

10:00 Croatia: Current account (EUR bn) Q4 -1.4 0.1 2.6 - -

13:00 Poland: Current account quarterly (EUR bn) Q4 -3.1 -3.4 -4.7 -4.2 -4.0

Hungary: Current account (EUR bn) Q4 0.2 0.5 0.4 - -

Serbia: Industrial output (% y/y) Feb 2.2 0.1 -2.7 - -

Serbia: Retail trade (% y/y) Feb -16.4 -16.5 -3.2 - -

Kazakhstan: Current account (USD bn) Q4 -0.2 3.0 6.2 2.3 -

Russia: Current account (USD bn) Q4 31.2 21.9 18.4 - 30.4

South Africa: Small moderation in headline PSCE growth expected in February after January’s bounce. Very strong growth in“other loans and advances” should have continued to provide a helpful push to household credit while we also expect somemodest growth in mortgage advances in the month.

Turkey: While the February trade deficit is likely to be higher than the one in January, we believe it will continue to improve on a 12-month rolling basis.

Croatia: We expect the current account deficit to shrink to close to zero for 2011 as a whole or even turn into a slight surplus.

Poland: We expect to see a further improvement in Q4 C/A data. In general we expect the contribution of net exports to increase in the coming quarters amid a deceleration in domestic demand.

Hungary: C/A surplus is likely to continue on trade balance surplus.

Kazakhstan: High oil prices maintain wide C/A surpluses, with the trade balance almost doubling y/y in 2011.


23 March 2012 11

DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW: LATIN AMERICA Alejandro Arreaza, Sebastián Brown, Alejandro Grisanti, Guilherme Loureiro, Bruno Rovai, Marcelo Salomon, Sebastian Vargas

Review of the week’s data releases


Chile: GDP, % y/y Q4 11 4.8 4.2 4.5 Consistent with 2.0% q/q saar in Q4 or 6.0% growth for 2011

Mexico: Retail sales, % y/y Jan 3.5 4.9 4.4 Showing another gain at the margin, +0.9% m/m sa

Argentina: Trade balance, USD mn Feb 550 - 1341 Import caps are boosting the trade balance

Colombia: Industrial prod., % y/y Jan 2.4 4.0 2.4 Slower-than-expected growth is the main influence for the decline in chemical products

Colombia: Retail sales, % y/y Jan 7.5 6.0 4.9 This print confirms the signs of growth moderation observed in previous months

Brazil: IPCA-15 inflation, % m/m Mar 0.53 0.40 0.25 Way below expectations. Core inflation moved further down, to 4.3% m/m saar

Brazil: Unemployment rate, % Feb 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.6% seasonally adjusted. Labor market remains tight

Mexico: Bi-weekly CPI, % 2w/2w Mar 0.07 0.23 0.05 Softer perishable food prices marked the release…

Mexico: Bi-weekly CPI core, % 2w/2w Mar 0.26 0.26 0.16 … with contained core inflation.

Colombia: GDP, % y/y Q4 11 7.7 5.5 6.1 Despite higher-than-expected growth, downward revision in the previous quarter left 2011 growth at 5.9, close to consensus

Preview of the week ahead

Monday 26 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 10:00 Mexico: Trade balance, USD mn Feb -232.2 6.6 -287.2 - - 15:00 Argentina: Economic activity index, % y/y Jan 8.1 7.6 5.5 5.3 - 16:00 Argentina: GDP, % y/y Q4 11 9.9 9.1 9.3 6.9 7.5


9:30 Brazil: Total outstanding loans, BRL bn Feb 1984.7 2030.0 2027.0 - -


- Brazil: Central government budget, BRL bn Feb 4.7 2.0 20.8 - -

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 7:00 Brazil: IGP-M inflation, % m/m Mar -0.12 0.25 -0.06 0.40 - 7:00 Chile: Industrial production, % y/y Feb - - - - - 8:00 Chile: Retail sales, % y/y Feb 8.5 10.1 6.3 7.0 - 9:30 Brazil: Primary budget balance, BRL bn Feb 8.2 1.9 26.0 - -

Friday 30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus 7:30 Chile: BCCh meeting minutes Mar - - - - - 8:00 Chile: Unemployment rate, % Feb 7.1 6.6 6.6 6.2 - 11:00 Mexico: Banxico meeting minutes Mar - - - - - 12:00 Colombia: Unemployment rate, % Feb 10.3 10.4 13.3 - 11.8 12:00 Uruguay: CPI, % m/m Mar 0.70 0.74 0.83 0.80 - 16:30 Mexico: Budget balance (YTD), MXN mn Feb -213.1 -355.5 3.6 - -

Chile BCCh meeting minutes: Given the unsurprising policy decision and the signs of an improved global outlook, we expect the minutes to reflect a higher degree of concern over recent inflationary pressures than before; in particular, how they might beaffecting long-term inflation expectations.

Chile unemployment rate: Our forecast is consistent with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which is remaining very close to its current record low number (6.8%). Our expectation of labor market resiliency and tightness in Chile will be supportiveof the recent robustness in the real retail sales index.

Mexico Banxico meeting minutes: We expect the same tone adopted in the statement that followed the rate’s decision. The board islikely to reinforce the better balance of risks to inflation and acknowledge that the external outlook has improved since the lastmeeting. We expect this tone to reinforce our scenario that rates in Mexico should remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.

Week 26-30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

- Uruguay: Overnight lending rate, % Mar 8.75 8.75 8.75 9.5 8.75


23 March 2012 12

GLOBAL ECONOMICS CALENDAR Saturday 24 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus

20:30 US: Fed Governor Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington

Sunday 25 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Germany: State election in Saarland- Spain: Elections in Asturias and Andalucía

Monday 26 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- E17: EU General Affairs council meet in Brussels- Italy: PM Monti speaks at the Nuclear Summit in Korea

04:40 E17: ECB Executive Board member Cœuré speaks at Barclays Capital Conference in Tokyo11:00 Germany: FM Schaeuble speaks at a CDU/CSU event on financial market oversight in Germany11:00 US: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (FOMC non-voter) in Paris12:00 US: Fed Chairman Bernanke (FOMC Voter) speaks in Arlington15:30 Israel: Base rate announcement, % Mar 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.5016:00 E17: ECB President Draghi speaks at Germany's BDB banking association's annual reception in Berlin

- UK: Nationwide house price Index, % m/m (y/y) (to 30/03) Mar -0.2 (1.0) -0.3 (0.6) 0.6 (0.9) 0.3 (1.0) 0.2 (0.8)08:00 Italy: Consumer confidence, index Mar 91.8 91.8 94.2 95.0 92.808:00 Germany: IFO business climate, index Mar 107.3 108.3 109.6 109.2 109.708:00 Germany: IFO current assessment, index Mar 116.7 116.3 117.5 117.0 117.008:00 Germany: IFO business expectations, index Mar 98.6 100.9 102.3 102.0 102.8

14:00 US: Pending home sales, % m/m Feb 4.6 -1.9 2.0 1.0 0.916:00 France: Jobseekers net change (sa), k Feb 22.4 20.3 13.4 14.0 15.219:00 Argentina: Economic activity index, % y/y Jan 8.1 7.6 5.5 5.3 -20:00 Argentina: GDP, % y/y Q4 9.9 9.1 9.3 6.9 7.521:00 Korea: Expected price change 6m ahead, index Mar 146 144 142 - -23:50 Japan: Corporate services price index, % y/y Feb -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4

02:30 Korea: 20y Bonds Auction KRW 1100 bn

04:00 Malaysia: 91d/119d/170 Notes Auction MYR 1.5/MYR 1.5/MYR 1 bn

09:30 Germany: New 12m Bubill 27Mar2013 € 3 bn

12:50 France: BTFs 21Jun12, 6Sep12, 7Mar13 € 3.6/4+1/1.4+1.1/1.5 bn13:45 UK: 3-7y Reverse Gilt Auctions £ 1.5 bn

Tuesday 27 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus08:00 E17: EU President Juncker attends the euro zone crisis debate in Brussels11:00 Norway: CB Governor Olsen speaks at the "20th anniversary of the Czech National Bank" in Prague12:00 Hungary: Base rate announcement, % Mar 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.0012:00 Turkey: Benchmark repo rate, % Mar 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.7516:35 US: Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks in London16:45 US: Fed Chairman Bernanke (FOMC Voter) speaks in Washington17:20 US: Dallas Fed President Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Choudrant

- Spain: Budget, year-to date, € bn Feb -52.4 -31.3 -9.3 - -06:45 France: Consumer confidence indicator, index Mar 80 81 82 82 8207:00 Germany: GfK consumer confidence, index Apr 5.7 5.9 6.0 - 6.107:30 Neth: Final GDP, % q/q Q4 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 P -0.7 -10:00 UK: CBI distributive trades, total sales Mar 9.0 -22.0 -2.0 -10.0 -7.013:00 US: S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI, %m/m (y/y) Jan -0.7 (-3.6) -0.7 (-3.8) -0.5 (-4.0) -0.4 (-3.8) -0.3 (-3.8)14:00 US: Consumer confidence, index Mar 64.8 61.5 70.8 67 70.4

02:00 Japan: Liquidity Enhancement Auction ¥ 300 bn

08:30 Spain : Letras 22Jun12 & 21Sep12 € 4 bn

09:00 Indonesia: 5y/25y Sukuk Auction -

09:00 Italy: CTZ Auction € 2.5 bn

09:00 Italy: BTPei Linker Auction € 1 bn

13:45 UK: 15y+ Reverse Gilt Auctions £ 1.5 bn17:00 US: 2y Note Auction $ 35 bn

Note: All times reported in GMT. Some data or events are boxed to indicate their importance to financial markets. Market events are highlighted in light blue.


23 March 2012 13

Wednesday 28 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Italy: PM Monti visit China and Japan (to 31/03)

01:00 US: St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Beijing12:00 Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks on ``Rebalancing Europe" at Chatham House in London15:30 E17: ECB Executive Board member Constâncio speaks on “How can macro-prudential regulation be effective?” in Frankfurt16:00 Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks on "Germany's future" in Bielefeld

- Germany: Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.6 (2.2) -0.4 (2.2) 0.9 (2.5) 0.3 (2.4) -- Germany: Bavaria CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.4) -0.4 (2.3) 0.9 (2.6) 0.3 (2.4) -- Germany: Hesse CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.5 (1.7) -0.3 (1.9) 0.8 (2.2) 0.3 (2.1) -- Germany: North Rhine Westphalia CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (1.7) -0.4 (1.8) 0.6 (1.9) 0.3 (1.7) -- Germany: Brandenburg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.6 (2.1) -0.4 (2.2) 0.8 (2.5) 0.3 (2.2) -- Germany: Saxony CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.2) -0.4 (2.3) 0.7 (2.4) 0.3 (2.3) -- Germany: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.1) -0.4 (2.1) 0.7 (2.3) 0.3 (2.1) 0.3 (2.1)- Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.7 (2.3) -0.5 (2.3) 0.9 (2.5) 0.3 (2.3) 0.4 (2.3)

05:30 France: Final GDP, % q/q Q4 -0.1 0.3 0.2 P 0.2 0.207:00 Sweden: Consumer Confidence, index Mar -7.4 -1.3 -3.2 -1.0 -07:00 Sweden: Manufacturing confidence Indicator, net balance Mar -11 -14 -13 -12 -07:00 Sweden: Economic Tendency Indicator, index Mar 93.0 91.6 93.0 94 -08:00 E17: M3, % y/y Feb 2.5 2.0 2.5 1.7 -08:00 E17: Private sector loans, % y/y Feb 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.1 -08:00 Italy: Business confidence, index Mar 92.5 92.1 91.5 90 91.808:30 UK: GDP final release, % q/q (y/y) Q4 0.0 (0.5) 0.5 (0.4) -0.2 (0.7) P -0.2 (0.7) -0.2 (0.7)08:30 UK: Current account, £bn Q4 -7.4 -7.4 -15.2 -8.9 -8.412:30 US: Durable goods orders, % m/m Feb 4.2 3.3 -3.7 3.0 2.912:30 US: Durable goods ex transportation, % m/m Feb 0.3 2.3 -3.0 2.5 1.504:00 Malaysia: 91d/7m Notes Auction -/MYR 1 bn09:00 Italy: 6m BOT (28Sep12) € 9 bn13:45 UK: 7-15y Reverse Gilt Auctions £ 1.5 bn17:00 US: 5y Note Auction $ 35 bn

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Uruguay: Overnight lending rate, % (to 30/03) Mar 8.75 8.75 8.75 - 8.75- Romania: Interest rate announcement, % Mar 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25- South Africa: SARB Announce Interest rate, % Mar 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

11:00 Czech: Repo rate announcement, % Mar 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.7514:00 US: New York Fed Vice President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks on Eurozone Aid in Washington16:15 US: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC voter) speaks in Atlanta16:45 US: Fed Chairman Bernanke (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington17:00 US: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (FOMC non-voter) in Wilmington22:45 US: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC voter) speaks in Charlotte

- Egypt: Constant GDP, % q/q Q4 -8.6 8.5 2.9 - -07:00 Norway: Unemployment rate, % Mar 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 -07:00 Spain: Preliminary HICP, % y/y Mar 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.807:55 Germany: Unemployment change (000s, sa); (rate, %) Mar -20.0 (6.9) -26.0 (6.8) 0.0 (6.8) - -10 (6.8)07:55 Germany: Unemployment level, mn (k nsa) Mar 2.9 (67) 2.8 (301) 2.8 (28) - -08:30 UK: Consumer credit, £bn Feb 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.208:30 UK: Mortgage approvals, k Feb 54.4 55.0 58.7 56.0 58.508:30 UK: Mortgage lending, £bn Feb 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.508:30 UK: M4 money supply, % m/m Feb -0.5 (-2.5) -1.4 (-2.5) 1.6 (-1.8) - -09:00 E17: Final consumer confidence, index Mar -20.7 -20.3 -19.0 P -19.0 -19.009:00 E17: Industrial confidence, index Mar -7.2 -7.0 -5.8 -7.0 -5.809:15 Belgium: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.0 (3.5) 0.7 (3.7) 0.6 (3.7) 0.3 (3.4) -

11:00 Brazil: IGP-M inflation, % m/m Mar -0.12 0.25 -0.06 0.40 0.4412:30 US: Final GDP, % q/q saar Q4 1.3 1.8 3.0 P 3.2 3.012:30 US: Final consumer spending, % q/q saar Q4 0.7 1.7 2.1 P 2.2 2.112:30 US: Final GDP price index, % q/q saar Q4 2.5 2.6 0.9 P 0.9 0.912:30 US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 24-Mar 365 (356) 353 (356) 348 (355) 345 (353) -

23:00 Korea: Final GDP, % y/y Q4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.1 -23:01 UK: GfK consumer confidence, index Mar -33 -29 -29 -28 -29

23:30 Japan: Unemployment rate, % Feb 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6

23:30 Japan: Jobs-applicants ratio (x) Feb 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.74

23:30 Japan: Real household spending, % y/y Feb -3.2 0.5 -2.3 -0.1 -0.5 Note: All times reported in GMT. Some data or events are boxed to indicate their importance to financial markets. Market events are highlighted in light blue.


23 March 2012 14

Thursday 29 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus23:30 Japan: Tokyo CPI, % y/y Mar -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1

23:30 Japan: Tokyo CPI ex. perishables, % y/y Mar -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3

23:30 Japan: Tokyo CPI ex. food and energy, % y/y Mar -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0

23:30 Japan: Nationwide CPI, % y/y Feb -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0

23:30 Japan: Nationwide CPI ex. perishables, % y/y Feb -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

23:30 Japan: Nationwide CPI ex. food and energy, % y/y Feb -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9

23:50 Japan: Industrial production, % m/m Feb -2.7 3.8 1.9 1.0 1.3

02:00 Japan: 2y JGB Auction ¥ 2700 bn

04:00 Malaysia: 91d/182d Bills Auction MYR 0.08 bn/MYR 0.1 bn

09:00 Italy: CCT Auction Cancelled € 0.001 bn

09:00 Italy: BTP Auction € 6.5 bn17:00 US: 7y Note Auction $ 29 bn

Friday 30 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- E17: ECB Executive Board Member González-Páramo speaks at Cernobbio event in Italy (to 31/03)

07:00 E17: Informal Eurogroup meeting10:30 E27: ECOFIN meeting (to 31/03)

- Costa Rica: GDP, % y/y Q4 2.4 3.6 4.9 - -06:00 Germany: Retail sales, sa % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.3 (1.3) 0.1 (0.3) -1.6 (1.6) 1.5 (1.7) 1.2 (0.8)06:45 France: Hhsld consum. goods, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.0 (-1.7) -0.2 (-2.5) -0.4 (-2.2) 0.6 (-2.0) 0.2 (-2.4)07:00 Spain: Adjusted retail sales, % y/y Feb -7.3 -5.6 -6.0 - -3.607:00 Swi: KoF leading indicator Mar 0.02 -0.15 -0.12 - 0.0809:00 E17: Flash HICP, % y/y Mar 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.509:00 Italy: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.3 (3.7) -1.8 (3.4) 0.2 (3.4) 2.1 (3.5) 2.1 (3.3)09:00 Italy: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.4 (3.3) 0.3 (3.2) 0.4 (3.3) 0.4 (3.3) -

12:30 US: Personal income, % m/m Feb 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4

12:30 US: Personal spending, % m/m Feb 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5

12:30 US: PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.1 (2.7) 0.1 (2.5) 0.2 (2.4) 0.3 (2.3) 2.4

12:30 US: Core PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.1 (1.8) 0.2 (1.9) 0.2 (1.9) 0.1 (1.9) 0.1 (1.9)

13:45 US: Chicago PMI, index Mar 62.2 60.2 64.0 64.5 63.0

13:55 US: Michigan consumer sentiment- f, index Mar 75.0 75.3 74.3 P 75.0 75.016:00 Uruguay: CPI, % m/m Mar 0.70 0.74 0.83 0.80 -

Saturday 31 March Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Spain: Deadline to present 2012 budget

11:30 E27: ECOFIN meeting (final day)22:30 US: Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois

Sunday 01 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus01:00 China: PMI manufacturing, index Mar 50.3 50.5 51.0 50.1 -11:00 Peru: CPI, % m/m Mar 0.27 -0.10 0.32 - -23:00 Korea: CPI, % y/y Mar 4.2 3.4 3.1 - -23:50 Japan: Tankan DI for mftg/non-mftg, index Q1 -9/-5 2/1 -4/4 - -1/5

Monday 2 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Russia: Overnight deposit rate, % Apr 4.00 4.00 4.00 - -- Russia: Refinancing rate, % Apr 8.00 8.00 8.00 - -

16:35 US: Cleveland Fed President Pianalto (FOMC voter) speaks in Marietta- Kazakhstan: CPI, % y/y Mar 7.4 5.9 4.7 - -- Russia: Annual GDP, % y/y 2011 -7.8 4.3 4.3 - 4.3- Ireland: Unemployment rate, % (to 5/04) Mar 14.3 14.2 14.2 - -

00:30 Australia: Inflation expectations, % m/m Mar 0.5 0.2 0.1 - -04:00 Indonesia: CPI, % y/y Mar 3.79 3.65 3.56 - -04:00 Thailand: CPI, % y/y Mar 3.53 3.38 3.35 - -05:00 Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Mar 23.5 40.7 31.9 - -07:00 UK: Halifax house price index, % m/m (3m/y) (to 5/04) Mar -1.0 (-1.3) 0.6 (-1.8) -0.5 (-1.9) - -07:00 Turkey: GDP, % y/y Q4 12.0 8.8 8.2 - -07:13 Spain: Manufacturing PMI, Index Mar 43.7 45.1 44.9 - -07:15 Swi: Retail sales, % y/y Feb 1.8 1.7 4.4 - -07:30 Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Mar 49.1 47.3 49.0 - -



23 March 2012 15

Monday 2 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus07:43 Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Mar 44.3 46.8 47.8 - -07:48 France: Final manufacturing PMI, index Mar 48.5 50.0 47.6 P - -07:53 Germany: Final manufacturing PMI, index Mar 51.0 50.2 48.1 P - -07:58 E17: Final manufacturing PMI, index Mar 48.8 49.0 47.7 P - -08:00 Italy: Unemployment rate, % Feb 8.8 8.9 9.2 - -08:28 UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Mar 49.7 52.0 51.2 - -09:00 E17: Unemployment rate, % Feb 10.5 10.6 10.7 - -

14:00 US: Construction spending, % m/m Feb 1.9 1.4 -0.1 - -

14:00 US: ISM manufacturing, index Mar 53.1 54.1 52.4 - -16:00 Italy: New car registrations, % y/y Mar -15.3 -16.9 18.9 - -17:00 Italy: Budget, year-to date, € bn Mar -61.5 -3.3 -10.7 - -

09:00 Germany: New 6m Bubill (10 Oct12) € 4 bn

09:00 Holland: DTC 29Jun12 & 27Dec12 € 1/2-1/2 bn

09:30 UK: 3-7y Reverse Gilt Auctions £ 1.5 bn12:50 France: BTF auction € 7.5 bn

Tuesday 3 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus04:30 Australia: RBA cash target, % Apr 4.25 4.25 4.25 - 4.2515:00 Chile: Monetary policy report (IPOM) Q118:00 US: Minutes of FOMC meeting released20:05 US: San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks in San Diego

- Venezuela: CPI, % m/m (to 12/04) Mar 1.80 1.50 1.10 - -01:30 Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Feb -0.2 0.1 0.0 - -07:00 Turkey: CPI, % y/y Mar 10.5 10.6 10.4 - -07:00 Spain: Unemployment change (000s, sa) Mar 1.9 177.5 112.3 - -08:30 UK: Construction PMI, index Mar 53.2 51.4 54.3 - -09:00 E17 : PPI, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.3 (5.4) -0.2 (4.3) 0.7 (3.7) - -14:00 US: Factory orders, %m/m Feb 2.2 1.4 -1.0 - -21:00 US: Vehicle sales, mn saar Mar 13.5 14.1 15.0 - -23:01 UK: BRC shop price index Mar 1.7 1.4 1.2 - -02:00 Japan: 10y JGB Auction ¥ 2300 bn09:30 Belgium: 19Jul12, 20Sep12 € 6 bn09:30 UK: 15y+ Reverse Gilt Auctions £ 1.5 bn

Wednesday 4 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Poland: Base rate announcement, % Apr 4.50 4.50 4.50 - -

11:45 E17: ECB Interest rate announcement, % Apr 1.00 1.00 1.00 - -12:30 E17: ECB Press Conference20:05 US: San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC Voter) speaks in San Francisco

- Russia: CPI, % y/y (to 09/04) Mar 6.1 4.2 3.7 - -01:00 Philippines: CPI, % y/y Mar 4.1 4.0 2.7 - -07:13 Spain: Services PMI, index Mar 42.1 46.1 41.9 - -07:30 Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.0 (3.8) -0.3 (3.6) -0.8 (1.2) - -07:43 Italy: Services PMI, index Mar 44.5 44.8 44.1 - -07:48 France: Final services PMI, index Mar 52.3 50.0 50.0 P - -07:53 Germany: Final services PMI, index Mar 53.7 52.8 51.8 P - -07:58 E17: Final services PMI, index Mar 50.4 48.8 48.7 P - -07:58 E17: Final composite PMI, index Mar 50.4 49.3 48.7 P - -08:00 Italy: Deficit, % of GDP Q4 7.1 5.2 4.3 - -08:28 UK: Services PMI, index Mar 54.0 56.0 53.8 - -09:00 E17: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.3 (-1.4) -0.5 (-1.3) 0.3 (0.0) - 0.210:00 Germany: Factory orders, %m/m (y/y) Feb -4.9 (-4.3) 1.6 (0.0) -2.7 (-4.9) - -12:15 US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Mar 267.0 173.0 216.0 - -14:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing, index Mar 53.0 56.8 57.3 - -08:30 Spain: SPGB Auction € 4.5 bn

09:30 Germany: 5y OBL Auction € 4 bn09:30 UK: 7-15y Reverse Gilt Auctions £ 1.5 bn



23 March 2012 16

Thursday 5 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus11:00 UK: BoE Bank rate decision, % Apr 0.50 0.50 0.50 - 0.5011:00 UK: BoE asset purchase decision Apr 275 275 325 - -13:10 US: St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks in St. Louis00:00 Colombia: CPI, % m/m Mar 0.42 0.73 0.61 - 0.3507:15 Swi: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Mar -0.2 (-0.7) -0.4 (-0.8) 0.3 (-0.9) - -07:30 Neth: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Mar -0.3 (2.5) 0.1 (2.9) 1.0 (2.9) - -

08:00 Taiwan: CPI, % y/y Mar 2.01 2.37 0.25 - -08:30 UK: Industrial output, % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.4 (-3.3) 0.4 (-3.1) -0.4 (-3.8) - -08:30 UK: Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Feb -0.1 (-1.0) 1.2 (0.8) 0.1 (0.3) - -10:00 Germany: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Feb 0.0 (4.4) -2.6 (1.3) 1.6 (1.8) - -

11:00 Chile: CPI, % m/m Mar 0.6 0.1 0.4 - 0.4

11:30 Chile: Economic activity index, % y/y Feb 4.0 5.3 5.5 - -

12:00 Brazil: IPCA inflation, % m/m Mar 0.50 0.56 0.45 - -12:30 US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 31-Mar 353 (356) 348 (355) … - -

02:00 Japan: Liquidity Enhancement Auction ¥ 300 bn08:50 France: OAT Auction € 8 bn

Friday 6 April Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus- Ukraine: CPI, % y/y (to 07/04) Mar 4.6 3.7 3.0 - -

06:45 France: Budget, year-to date, € bn Feb -97.2 -90.8 -12.5 - -06:45 France: Trade balance, €bn Feb -4.2 -5.1 -5.3 - -

12:30 US: Nonfarm payrolls, chg, k Mar 223 284 227 - -

12:30 US: Private nonfarm payrolls, chg, k Mar 234 285 233 - -

12:30 US: Unemployment rate, % Mar 8.3 8.3 8.3 - -

12:30 US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Mar 0.1 (2.1) 0.1 (1.8) 0.1 (1.9) - -

12:30 US: Average weekly hours Mar 34.5 34.5 34.5 - -19:00 US: Consumer credit, chg, $ bn Feb 20.0 16.3 17.8 - -



23 March 2012 17

KEY OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES Last Next move

Current date level move expected 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12Fed funds rate 0-0.25 Easing: 17 Sep 07 5.25 Dec 08 (-75-100) Beyond 2013 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25

BoJ overnight rate 0.10 Easing: 30 Oct 08 0.50 Oct 10 (0-10) Q2 15 (+20) 0-0.10 0-0.10 0-0.10 0-0.10

ECB main refinancing rate 1.00 Easing: 03 Nov 11 1.50 Dec 11 (-25) Beyond 2013 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

BOE bank rate 0.50 Easing: 6 Dec 07 5.75 Mar 09 (-50) Aug 13 (+25) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

RBA cash rate 4.25 Easing: 1 Nov 11 4.75 Dec 11 (-25) Q2 12 (-25) 4.25 3.75 3.75 3.75

RBNZ cash rate 2.50 Easing: 10 Mar 11 3.00 Mar 11 (-50) Q4 12 (+25) 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75

Swiss National Bank 0-0.25 Easing: 8 Oct 08 2.75 Aug 11 (-25) Q2 12 (+25) 0-0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Norges Bank 1.50 Tightening: 29 Oct 09 1.25 Mar 12 (-25) Q1 13 (+25) 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Riksbank 1.50 Tightening: 6 July 10 0.25 Feb 12 (-25) Q1 13 (+25) 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Bank of Canada 1.00 Tightening: 1 June 10 0.25 Sep 10 (+25) Q1 13 (+25) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

China: Working capital rate 6.56 Tightening: 19 Oct 10 5.31 Jul 11 (+25) Beyond Q4 12 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56

India: Repo rate 8.50 Tightening: 19 Mar 10 4.75 Oct 11 (+25) April 12 (-25) 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.50

Brazil: SELIC rate 9.75 Easing: 31 Aug 11 12.50 Mar 12 (-75) Apr 12 (-75) 9.75 9.00 9.00 9.00

Mexico: Overnight rate 4.50 Easing: 16 Jan 09 8.25 Jul 09 (-25) Beyond 2013 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50

Start of cycle Forecasts

GLOBAL KEY EVENTS Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13

Forthcoming central bank announcement datesNorth AmericaFOMC meeting 13 24-25 - 19-20 31 - 12 23-24 - 11 n/a n/aFOMC minutes - 2 16 - 11 21 - 3 14 - n/a n/aCongressional testimony - - - - Jul - - - - - n/a n/aFed's Beige Book - 11 - 6 18 30 - 10 28 - n/a n/aBank of Canada 8 17 - 5 17 - 5 23 - 4 n/a n/aEuropeECB "policy" meeting 8 4 3 6 5 2 6 4 8 6 10 7ECB monthly bulletin 15 11 10 13 12 9 13 11 15 13 17 14ECB "non-policy" meeting 22 19 16 21 19 - 20 18 22 20 24 21Bank of England 7-8 4-5 9-10 6-7 4-5 1-2 5-6 3-4 7-8 5-6 11-12 8-9BoE Inflation Report - - 16 - - 8 - - 14 - - 15BoE minutes 21 18 23 20 18 15 19 17 21 19 25 22Riksbank - 19 30 - 4 - 6 25 29 18 n/a n/aSNB 15 - - 14 - - 13 - - 13 n/a n/aNorges Bank 14 - 10 20 - 29 - 31 - 19 n/a n/aAsia/RoWBank of Japan 12-13 9-10,27 22-23 14-15 11-12 8-9 18-19 4-5, 30 19-20 19-20 n/a n/aBoJ minutes 16 13 7, 28 20 18 14 24 11 2,28 26 n/a n/aReserve Bank of Australia 6 3 1 5 3 7 4 2 6 4 n/a n/aRBNZ 8 - - 14 - - 13 - - 6 - -Key international meetingsECOFIN 13,31 - 15 22 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aG20 15-16 19-20 10-11 15-17 - - 13-14 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aElectionsFinland (Presidential) - - - - - - - - - - - -Russia (Presidential) 4 - - - - - - - - - - -Greece (Parliamentary) - Apr - - - - - - - - - -France (Presidential) - 22 6 - - - - - - - - -France (Legislative) - - - 10-17 - - - - - - - -India (Presidential) - - - - Jul - - - - - - -Mexico (Presidential/Legislative) - - - - 1 - - - - - - -Hong-Kong (Legislative) - - - - - - Sep - - - - -US (Presidential/Legislative) - - - - - - - - 6 - - -


23 March 2012 18

CALENDAR OF FORTHCOMING CRITICAL EVENTS FOR THE EURO AREA Date Country Event Likely outcome: our assessment

25-Mar Germany State elections (Saarland) Could lead to a SPD/CDU coalition, after several other coalition models (including a CDU/FDP/the Greens coalition) failed in past years. In the polls, the SPD (34-35%) has a slight lead over the CDU (33-34%)

25-Mar Spain Regional elections in Asturias and Andalucía Opinion polls indicate a swing to the PP

26-Mar Euro area EU General Affairs Ministers meet (Brussels)

28/31-Mar Italy PM Monti visits China and Japan

28-Mar Belgium Bond redemption: €5.045bn

29-Mar France President N Sarkozy and Socialist Candidate F Hollande present their proposals on security after the national police union seminar

29-Mar Italy Bond auctions

30-Mar Euro area Informal Eurogroup meeting (Denmark)

30/31-Mar Euro area Ecofin meeting (Denmark)

31-Mar Spain Deadline for presenting the 2012 budget

April, 2012

04-Apr Euro area ECB policy meeting

12-Apr Greece The debt swap operation is expected to be completed

15-Apr Italy €15bn BTP redemption

18-Apr Germany Chancellor Merkel holds campaign for Schleswig-Holstein election (Kiel)

19-Apr Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

20/22-Apr G20 IMF/World Bank Spring meetings

22-Apr France Presidential election (first round) N Sarkozy and F Hollande are the main frontrunners with between 25% and 30% of voting intentions

23-Apr Euro area EU Foreign Ministers meet (Luxembourg)

24-Apr Euro area EU General Affairs Ministers meet (Luxembourg)

25/27-Apr Euro area EU Budget Group meet for 2013 budget (Copenhagen)

26-Apr Germany Chancellor Merkel campaigns for Schleswig-Holstein election (Moelln)

29-Apr Greece General elections (tentative)

30-Apr Spain €11.9bn SPGB redemption

30-Apr Italy €12.27bn CTZ redemption

May, 2012

May/Jun Ireland EU Fiscal Treaty Referendum

03-May Euro area ECB policy meeting

05-May Germany Chancellor Merkel campaign for Schleswig-Holstein election (Tornesch)

06-May France Presidential election (second round) All major polls suggest that F Hollande would win the second round

06-May Germany Schleswig-Holstein elections

10/11-May Euro area EU General Affairs Ministers meet (Horsens)

10/11-May G20 G20 Summit

11-May EU EU Economic forecasts, spring

13-May Germany State elections in NRW

14-May Euro area Regular Eurogroup meeting (Brussels)

14-May Euro area EU Foreign Ministers meet (Brussels)


23 March 2012 19

Date Country Event Likely outcome: our assessment

15-May EU ECOFIN meeting (Brussels)

15-May Greece International Bond redemption: €0.45bn

16-May Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

18-May G8 G8 Summit

18-May Greece Bond redemption: €8bn

25-May Germany Bundestag votes on the new fiscal and stability treaty and the ESM

25-May EU European Council

29-May Euro area EU General Affairs Ministers meet (Brussels)

31-May EU Annual economic conference

June, 2012

Jun Euro area Deadline for banks recapitalisations

03-Jun G8/G20 G8/G20 Summit

06-Jun Euro area ECB policy meeting

10-Jun France Parliamentary election (first round)

11-Jun Euro area EU General Affairs Ministers meet

14-Jun Euro area Regular Eurogroup meeting (Brussels)

15-Jun Germany Bundesrat votes on the new fiscal and stability treaty and the ESM

17-Jun France Parliamentary election (second round)

18/19-Jun G20 G20 Summit

21-Jun Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

21/22-Jun EU ECOFIN meeting (Brussels)

25-Jun Euro area EU Foreign Ministers meet (Luxembourg)

28/29-Jun EU European Council

July, 2012

05-Jul Euro area ECB policy meeting

19-Jul Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

August, 2012

02-Aug Euro area ECB policy meeting

September, 2012

06-Sep Euro area ECB policy meeting

13/14-Sep G20 G20 Summit

20-Sep Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

October, 2012

Oct G20 G20 Summit

04-Oct Euro area ECB policy meeting

18-Oct Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

November, 2012

08-Nov Euro area ECB policy meeting

09/10-Nov G20 G20 Summit

22-Nov Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

December, 2012

06-Dec Euro area ECB policy meeting

20-Dec Euro area ECB Governing Council meeting

Note: All times are local. Source: Barclays Research


23 March 2012 20

FORECAST GROSS AND NET ISSUANCE BY COUNTRY (€ BN) Germany France Italy Spain Belgium Holland Portugal Finland Austria Greece Ireland Total

Gross Issuance 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0

Total Redemptions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 14.4 5.5 27.1 Rest of

Mar Total Net 0.0 0.0 9.0 -0.7 -4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 -14.4 -5.5 -18.1

Gross Issuance 16.0 17.5 17.5 9.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 68.3

Total Redemptions 16.0 18.0 27.8 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 74.5 April

Total Net 0.0 -0.5 -10.3 -3.5 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 -6.2

Gross Issuance 16.0 17.5 26.5 9.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 77.3

Total Redemptions 16.0 18.0 27.8 13.2 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 14.4 5.5 101.6 Nest Two

Months Total Net 0.0 -0.5 -1.3 -4.2 -1.8 3.0 0.0 1.0 -0.5 -14.4 -5.5 -24.3

Source: Barclays Research (Fixed Income Strategy research)

Germany France Italy Spain Belgium Holland Finland Austria Portugal Greece IrelandTotal Euro Area

Total Ex Greece,

Portugal & Ireland

Forecast Redemptions 160 99 200 50 26 30 7 15 13 33 6 638 586

Net Issuance (vs Gross target) 18 96 20 32 0 30 3 8 8 15 9 238 207

Market Funding 178 195 220 82 26 60 9 23 0 0 0 794 794

Net Market Funding 18 96 20 32 10 30 3 8 -13 -33 -6 166 217

EU/IMF Funding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 51 20 96 0

Total Gross Funding Requirement 178 195 220 82 26 60 9 23 25 51 20 890 794

2012

Y/Y Change Market Funding -7.7% 6.0% -2.2% -12.4% 11.9% -2.1% -44.5% 24.3% NA NA NA


Cash deficit 25 70 11 24 8 16 2 6 5 11 8 187 163

Market Funding 168 196 167 86 38 47 8 21 10 0 18 761 733

Net Market Funding 25 70 11 24 8 16 2 6 0 -30 9 142 163

EU/IMF Funding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 41 5 56 0

Total Funding Requirement 168 196 167 86 38 47 8 21 20 41 23 817 733

2013

Y/Y Change Market Funding -6.5% 0.7% -24.3% 4.2% 0.3% -3.1% -10.6% -7.0% NA NA NA 2.5%


Cash deficit 15 60 2 18 5 13 2 5 4 6 5 135 119

Market Funding 165 177 160 77 32 43 9 29 16 0 17 724 692

Net Market Funding 15 60 2 18 5 13 2 5 2 -32 5 95 119

EU/IMF Funding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 38 0 43 0


2014

Y/Y Change Market Funding -2.0% -9.7% -3.9% -10.9% -16.6% -9.7% 8.6% 34.5% 58.0% NA -5.8% -6.1%


Cash deficit 14 42 -2 18 4 9 2 4 4 6 5 106 92

Market Funding 175 186 192 68 43 55 11 17 15 27 7 795 746

Net Market Funding 14 42 -2 18 4 9 2 4 4 6 5 106 92

EU/IMF Funding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


2015

Y/Y Change Market Funding 6.1% 5.0% 19.9% -11.7% 34.4% 28.0% 18.4% -39.6% -4.7% NA -59.4% 9.8%

Source: Barclays Research (Fixed Income Strategy research)

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Subject to the conditions of this publication as set out above, Absa Capital, the Investment Banking Division of Absa Bank Limited, an authorised financialservices provider (Registration No.: 1986/004794/06), is distributing this material in South Africa. Absa Bank Limited is regulated by the South African

Reserve Bank. This publication is not, nor is it intended to be, advice as defined and/or contemplated in the (South African) Financial Advisory andIntermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002, or any other financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, accounting, retirement, actuarial or other professional advice orservice whatsoever. Any South African person or entity wishing to effect a transaction in any security discussed herein should do so only by contacting arepresentative of Absa Capital in South Africa, 15 Alice Lane, Sandton, Johannesburg, Gauteng 2196. Absa Capital is an affiliate of Barclays. In Japan, foreign exchange research reports are prepared and distributed by Barclays Bank PLC Tokyo Branch. Other research reports are distributed toinstitutional investors in Japan by Barclays Capital Japan Limited. Barclays Capital Japan Limited is a joint-stock company incorporated in Japan with registered office of 6-10-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-6131, Japan. It is a subsidiary of Barclays Bank PLC and a registered financial instruments firm regulated bythe Financial Services Agency of Japan. Registered Number: Kanto Zaimukyokucho (kinsho) No. 143. Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong Branch is distributing this material in Hong Kong as an authorised institution regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.Registered Office: 41/F, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong. This material is issued in Taiwan by Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited. This material on securities not traded in Taiwan is not to be construed as 'recommendation' in Taiwan. Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited does not accept orders from clients to trade in such securities. This material may notbe distributed to the public media or used by the public media without prior written consent of Barclays. This material is distributed in South Korea by Barclays Capital Securities Limited, Seoul Branch. All equity research material is distributed in India by Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (SEBI Registration No: INB/INF 231292732 (NSE), INB/INF 011292738 (BSE), Registered Office: 208 | Ceejay House | Dr. Annie Besant Road | Shivsagar Estate | Worli | Mumbai - 400 018 | India, Phone: + 91 22 67196363). Other research reports are distributed in India by Barclays Bank PLC, India Branch. Barclays Bank PLC Frankfurt Branch distributes this material in Germany under the supervision of Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). This material is distributed in Malaysia by Barclays Capital Markets Malaysia Sdn Bhd. This material is distributed in Brazil by Banco Barclays S.A. This material is distributed in Mexico by Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. Barclays Bank PLC in the Dubai International Financial Centre (Registered No. 0060) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Principal place of business in the Dubai International Financial Centre: The Gate Village, Building 4, Level 4, PO Box 506504, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Barclays BankPLC-DIFC Branch, may only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA licence. Related financial products orservices are only available to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Barclays Bank PLC in the UAE is regulated by the Central Bank of the UAE and is licensed to conduct business activities as a branch of a commercial bankincorporated outside the UAE in Dubai (Licence No.: 13/1844/2008, Registered Office: Building No. 6, Burj Dubai Business Hub, Sheikh Zayed Road, DubaiCity) and Abu Dhabi (Licence No.: 13/952/2008, Registered Office: Al Jazira Towers, Hamdan Street, PO Box 2734, Abu Dhabi). Barclays Bank PLC in the Qatar Financial Centre (Registered No. 00018) is authorised by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA). Barclays Bank PLC-QFC Branch may only undertake the regulated activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA licence. Principal place of business in Qatar:Qatar Financial Centre, Office 1002, 10th Floor, QFC Tower, Diplomatic Area, West Bay, PO Box 15891, Doha, Qatar. Related financial products or services are only available to Business Customers as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. This material is distributed in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and Qatar by Barclays Bank PLC. This material is distributed in Saudi Arabia by Barclays Saudi Arabia ('BSA'). It is not the intention of the publication to be used or deemed asrecommendation, option or advice for any action (s) that may take place in future. Barclays Saudi Arabia is a Closed Joint Stock Company, (CMA License No.09141-37). Registered office Al Faisaliah Tower, Level 18, Riyadh 11311, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority,Commercial Registration Number: 1010283024. This material is distributed in Russia by OOO Barclays Capital, affiliated company of Barclays Bank PLC, registered and regulated in Russia by the FSFM. BrokerLicense #177-11850-100000; Dealer License #177-11855-010000. Registered address in Russia: 125047 Moscow, 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya str. 21. This material is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, a bank licensed in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.For matters in connection with this report, recipients in Singapore may contact the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, whose registered address is OneRaffles Quay Level 28, South Tower, Singapore 048583. Barclays Bank PLC, Australia Branch (ARBN 062 449 585, AFSL 246617) is distributing this material in Australia. It is directed at 'wholesale clients' as definedby Australian Corporations Act 2001. IRS Circular 230 Prepared Materials Disclaimer: Barclays does not provide tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed to be tax advice. Please be advised that any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) (i) is not intended or written to be used, and cannotbe used, by you for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties; and (ii) was written to support the promotion or marketing of the transactions or othermatters addressed herein. Accordingly, you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. © Copyright Barclays Bank PLC (2012). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner without the prior written permissionof Barclays. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Registered office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP. Additional information regarding this publication will be furnished upon request.

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