Barriers to Agricultural Technology Adoption in Developing Countries, and the Potential Role of Biofortification

Alan de BrauwMarkets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (CGIAR)

How can we better nourish 9 billion?

Food availability is not a problem, nor is it likely to be In fact, there is a great deal of untapped agricultural

potential in specific regionsSub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, Cambodia

More important is what kind of food will be availableMore nutritious crops need to be more availableMore nutritious crops now include biofortified crops– staple

crops bred for additional micronutrients

Major Grain Availability in the World, 2012

Crop Total Production(MMT)

Daily Calories per Capita

Rice 720 1014

Wheat 670 865

Maize 872 1092

TOTAL 2971

Data from FAOStat; assumed population of 7 billion

Even with plenty of calorie “availability”…

Untapped Productivity Potential in Several Parts of the World

But at current price levels and trends there is a large underinvestment in more nutritious foods

Untapped Productivity: Evidence on Average Yields (t/ha)

Maize Rice Wheat

World 4.9 4.4 3.1

Africa 2.0 2.5 2.4

South Asia 2.7 3.5 2.8

Data from FAO Stat

Untapped Productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere

AGO

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AUT

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COG

COLCOM

CPV

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CUB

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DJIDMADOM

DZA

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FRA

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GABGEO

GHA

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GRC

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HRV

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HUN

IDN

IND

IRN

IRQ

ISR

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JAM

JOR

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KAZ

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LBN

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LSO

LTU

LUX

MAR

MDG

MDV MEX

MKD

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MUS

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NAM

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4 6 8 10 12Logarithm, GDP per Capita, 2009

From recent National Geographic

How to improve agricultural technology adoption?

World Agricultural production is not close to reaching its potentialParticularly true in sub-Saharan Africa

Even without any new technology, world production could be much higherNeed is to induce farmers to switch from traditional

varieties of crops to modern varietiesBut how?

Question 1: Is it profitable for farmers to grow modern varieties? Suri (2011) built a framework allowing

heterogenous returns to growing hybrids, finds:Group of farmers with high potential returns,

not growing hybrids, but high cost of obtaining seeds and fertilizer (so they don’t)

Another group with positive but lower returns grows hybrids

Others do not grow hybrids all the time, have essentially zero returns

New question: how can modern varieties be made profitable for smallholder farmers?

10 Challenges for Adoption(ATAI)

1. Lack of Information2. Risk and Uncertainty3. Lack of Finance4. Labor Market Problems5. Land Market Problems

6. Externalities7. Coordination Failures8. Distribution Problems9. Lack of appropriateness10. Distorted Prices

Technologies not Appropriate

Farmers may have different preferences than policy-makers/breedersPolicy makers may be too risk averse in approving new

Available technology may not be right for marginal land, etc.Profits may actually be variable to higher yielding

varieties of appropriate crops Taste, cultivation attributes may also matter

Can potentially include drought/heat resistance

Intervention Ideas : Appropriate Technologies More Participatory Breeding? (Walker, 2008)

But lack of evidence this could be cost effective Need to consider gender in developing interventions for

appropriate technologiesWomen often lack same access to improved seeds, inputs (even

within households in west Africa) Difficult to predict the gender distributional consequences of

new technologies targeted to women (e.g. von Braun, 1989)

May be a need for different types of technologies as well

Average Yield Increases, Selected Crops (1961=100)

50

100

150

200

250

300

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Maize Dry Peas Vegetables Rice

Percent Changes in Cereal and Pulse Production, and in Population, 1965-1999

0

50

100

150

200

250

Indi

a

Paki

stan

Bang

lade

sh

Deve

lopi

ng

Indi

a

Paki

stan

Bang

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Deve

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Wor

ld

Deve

lopi

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Grains Pulses Population

Evidence: Shares of daily calorie consumption by food groups

Ideal US China BangladeshStarchyStaples

48 31 49 80

Legumes & Nuts

22 5 3 4

Animal & Fish Products

10 14 20 4

Fruits &Vegetables

9 7 9 2

Fats & Sugars 11 43 19 10Total Calories 2200 Too many Too many Too few

Source for “Ideal” shares: Thompson and Meerman, FAO, 2013

New Idea: Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition Idea: Intervene in Value Chains to improve the

consumption of nutritious cropsLegumes; Vegetables/Fruits; Animal Source Foods

Income increases are not sufficient to improve diet Policies sometimes promote production of grains at the

expense of healthier products Interventions should work through prices (reductions);

income; or information Should consider food safety as intervention is designed if

warranted

Inputs Farmer

Buyers (Middlemen), Processors,

SellersConsumer

Value Chain

Financing

Possible Interventions

Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition: Example IFPRI Project: Laiterie du Berger (LB) in St Louis, Senegal buys milk

from semi-nomadic herders in northern Senegal to produce yogurt and a fortified yogurt product called Thiakry

Milk availability is seasonal– LB has to import powder to make Thiakry Population producing yogurt is highly anemic To try to regularize milk collection and improve iron status of

population, an intervention offered Thiakry for children when specific producers met collection targets Preliminary result: Reduced anemia by 11 percentage points but

not clear it is cost effective

New Technology: Biofortification

Idea Behind Biofortification (HarvestPlus): Breed essential micronutrients (vitamin A, iron, zinc) right into staple cropsVitamin A Orange Sweet Potato (Mozambique, Uganda)High Iron Beans (Rwanda)Vitamin A Cassava (Nigeria)High Iron Pearl Millet (India)Vitamin A (Orange) Maize (Zambia)Others on the way

Lack of micronutrients greatly contributes to deaths among under 5s due to malnutrition and hinders child development

HarvestPlus release varieties should…

Have enough of the target micronutrient to make a difference in nutritional status;

Be bioavailable; Yield at least as well as varieties farmers use, among test

populations; Taste good (according to local populations)

Methods: HarvestPlus REU (2006-2009)

Introduced OSP to farmers in 2007 in Mozambique and Uganda through vine distribution and sales

Accompanied by both agricultural and nutrition extension in both countriesAnd marketing intervention to attempt to build

marketing chain Impacts measured with Randomized Control Trial; baseline

and endline; detailed dietary intake studyGoal of project: Demonstrate reduction in vitamin A

deficiency in both countries

Primary Findings (2009): Vitamin A Deficiency

Mozambique

0 0.5 1

TreatedChildren

ControlChildren

TreatedMothers

ControlMothers

Endline Baseline

Uganda

0 0.5 1

TreatedChildren

ControlChildren

Endline Baseline

Additional Findings – “Medium Term” Surveys

In Uganda, about half of those growing orange sweet potato still growing them in 2011

In Mozambique, less success continuing to grow them by 2012BUT…

Also find a statistically significant difference between vitamin A intakes among one treatment group and the control in 2012 (mothers and children)

Can attribute difference to OFSP consumption

Summary and Directions for Research

Major grains are actually quite available and likely will be in 2050

However, there is need for additional investment in breeding on two levelsTraditional, more nutritious crops (pulses and legumes;

vegetables)Yield gains have lagged those of major grains

Further effort on biofortified crops in future to fill in micronutrient gaps