bart’s business model - spur.org · 31/07/2018 · bart’s business model july 31, 2018 what is...
TRANSCRIPT
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BARTBackground
Basic Facts
• Regionalrailrapidtransit
• ElectedBoardofDirectors:9• Comprisedof3Counties:
- Alameda,ContraCosta&SanFrancisco- ServesSanMateo- WillserveSantaClarain2019
• 414,166weekdayriders(FY18)
• 121revenueroutemiles• 5lines,plusOaklandAirport
• 48stations• 48,000+parkingspaces
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• FY19AdoptedBudget• Operating: $922M• Capital: $1,355M
• RailFareboxRatio(FTAFY14):(FareRevenue/OperatingCosts)• SF/OAK(BART) 78%• NYC(NYCTA) 63%• WashDC(WMATA) 62%• Boston(MTBA) 60%• Philadelphia(SEPTA) 55%
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel?
BARTBackground
Basic Facts
WeekdayTripsbySub-Area• 52%:Transbay• 27%:intra-WestBay• 21%:intra-EastBay
BetterBART,BetterMarketStreet
2/3rdsofBARTtripsbeginorendonMarketStreet
WeekdayRidership(FY10– FY16)• Growth: 29%• Growth: ~100,000• June2015 433,000
4SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel?July31,2018
RelatedtotheBARTStrategicPlan• Core:RelatedtoBART’sVisionandMission– SeamlessMobility– Movepeoplesafelyandreliably– ReduceRisk(safety/service/reputational/financial)– Howdotoday’sdecisionsaffectBART’slong-termoutlook?
• Dynamic:RelatedtoBART’scurrentandfutureenvironment– ImproveCustomerExperience– GenerateRevenue– ReduceCosts/CostNeutral
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel?
BART’s Business Model
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Strategic Plan and FY19 Budget
StrategicPlanprovidespolicydirectiontoBudgetprocess&decisionmaking
StrategicPlanfunction:LinkingPolicy guidance,Riskinformation,andBudget decisions
July31,2018 7
Ten-Year Financial Outlook
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel?
-$70
-$60
-$50
-$40
-$30
-$20
-$10
$0
$10FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28
Millions
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BARTDAS,July2014
Riders by Station, by Time of Day
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
CombinedStationEntries&Exitsin15MinuteIncrements
MT
EM
PL
CC
19th
BK
16th
12th
24th
MA
BP
ED
PH
Montgomery
Embarcadero
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10
TheBeforeandAfterEffectsofBART
Transbay Service
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Recent BART Ridership Trends
101.0 103.7110.8
117.8 117.1126.0 128.5
124.2 120.6
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Annual Trips (millions)
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Rail Ridership Trends At Peer Agencies
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0.2%
-10.4%
-4.7%
-1.3% -0.2% -0.8%
-4.5%
BART WMATA(DC)
MARTA(Atlanta)
CTA(Chicago)
MBTA(Boston)
NYMTA SEPTA(SEPenn)
Year-to-year%change(CalendarYear2016vs2015)
Note:Thesedataarebasedon“unlinkedpassengertrips.”
Source:http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/Ridership/2016-q4-ridership-APTA.pdfUnlinkedpassengertrips
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Transbay AM Floating Peak Hour, Peak Direction Ridership
02,5005,0007,500
10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,00027,50030,000
Peak Hour Ridership
2015 2016 2017 2018
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Fare Revenue
$274 $278 $291 $299 $318 $353 $353 $383 $399 $392 $393
$9 $19
$27 $33 $39
$35 $40 $41 $43 $49
$53 $54
$60 $63 $60 $61
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY18 Est
Annual Fare Revenue (millions)
Core System CPI-based Fare Increase SFO Extension
DateofIncrease
AverageIncrease
1/1/2006 3.7%1/1/2008 5.4%7/1/2009 6.1%7/1/2012 1.4%1/1/2014 5.2%1/1/2016 3.4%1/1/2018 2.7%
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FY17-31 CIP Major Investment ProgramsNeed and Funding
NeedandFunding(millions)
$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000
CapitalAssetRenewalPrograms
Big3(includingTCMP)
CoreCapacity(ExcludingTCMP)
AccessEnhancementandStationMod
BARTMetro
EarthquakeSafetyProgram
SystemExpansion
OtherNeeds
CommittedFunds DiscretionaryFunds FundingGap
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Operating to Capital Allocations
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$428 $467 $498 $524 $498 $486 $524 $561 $569 $610 $637$690
$743
$24$34
$50 $8 $34 $59$64
$84 $113$148
$144$123
$127
$63$70
$66 $68 $68 $68$62
$62$58
$56 $49$50
$51
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18Budget
%Ope
ratin
gFund
sAllo
catedtoCap
ital/A
ccess
Ope
ratin
gExpe
nditu
res($M
)
OperatingExpense AllocationstoCapital,Access,andReservesDebtService %ofOperatingFundsAllocatedtoCapital/Access
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RelatedtotheBARTStrategicPlan• Core:RelatedtoBART’sVisionandMission– SeamlessMobility– Movepeoplesafelyandreliably– ReduceRisk(safety/service/reputational/financial)– Howdotoday’sdecisionsaffectBART’slong-termoutlook?
• Dynamic:RelatedtoBART’scurrentandfutureenvironment– ImproveCustomerExperience– GenerateRevenue– ReduceCosts/CostNeutral
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel?
BART’s Business Model
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Near Term Focus and Issues
• OperatingEssentials– OpenBARTtoAntioch– May2018– IntegrateNewRailCarsintorevenueservice– StaffanexpandedHaywardMaintenanceComplex
• InitiativestoImproveCustomerExperience,ReduceCosts,GenerateRevenue– QualityofLife
• Homelessness• Cleanliness• FareEvasion• Safety&security
– Administrativeprocessefficiencyimprovements– AccessandParkingimprovements
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Ridership and Employment Trends
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300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
460,000
480,000
500,000
1,800,000
1,900,000
2,000,000
2,100,000
2,200,000
2,300,000
2,400,000
2,500,000
BARTRidershipvsSF-Oak-HaywardMSAEmployment
SF-Oakland-HaywardMSAEmployment AvgWeekdayRidership
12per.Mov.Avg.(SF-Oakland-HaywardMSAEmployment) 12per.Mov.Avg.(AvgWeekdayRidership)
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Non-Passenger Revenue Opportunities
• TransitOrientedDevelopment• Advertising• TheBARTDigitalRailwayandDigitalStrategy
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CurrentTODPortfolioStatus Station TotalUnits
AffordableUnits
%AffordableOffice(SF)
Retail(SF)
CastroValley(1993) 96 96 100%FruitvalePhaseI(2004) 47 10 21% 27,000 37,000PleasantHillPhaseI(2008) 422 84 20% 35,590Hayward(1998) 170 0 0%Ashby(2011) 0 0 0% 80,000RichmondPhaseI(2004) 132 66 50% 9,000MacArthurPhI(2016) 90 90 100%SanLeandroPhI(2017) 115 115 100% 5,000 1,000WestDublin(2013) 309 0 0%EastDublin(2008) 240 0 0%SouthHaywardPhI(2017) 354 152 43%
1975 613 31% 112,000 82,590MacArthurPhII(begins2017&2018) 787 56 7% 39,100SanLeandroPhII(2017-2019) 85 85 100%WalnutCreek(began2017) 596 0 0%ColiseumPhaseI(2017-2019) 110 55 50%WestPleasanton(2017-2019) 0 0 0% 410,000PleasantHillBlockC(begin2018) 200 0 0%FruitvalePhaseIIA(begin2018) 94 92 98%
1872 288 15% 410,000 39,100
GRANDTOTAL 3847 901 23% 522,000 121,690
Completed
TOTALCOMPLETED
TOTALUNDERCONST.&PLANNED
Constructio
n/
Plan
ned
LandLease/Sale
Participation*Ridership
Revenue from Transit-Oriented Development
• Revenueislongterm:fromchoicesmade10-20yearsago
• Pastpriorities:ridership,parkingreplacement,longtermrevenue
• CityRedevelopmentplayedmajorroleinmostcompletedprojects
• Decisionsmadetodaycouldaffectrevenuein7-10years
2018BARTTOD-GeneratedRevenue
*TransitBenefitFees,RevenueSharingforRetail,ParkingGarages
$740k
$184K~$3Million
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel? 26
Revenue Share Opportunity
BasedonOUTFRONTnetrevenueprojection,totalestimatedpaymentstoBARTcouldbeapproximately$272M,ofwhich$160Misguaranteed.
$9.0M$12.0M $12.0M $12.0M $12.0M $13.0M $14.0M $15.0M $16.0M $17.0M $18.0M
$10.0M
$.5M
$2.4M $4.7M $6.0M$11.3M $11.6M
$15.1M $15.2M $15.1M $15.1M $15.0M
$-
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
October1,2018- June30,2019
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29
BARTRevenueShareOpportunity(basedonOutfrontprojection)
SigningBonusPaymenttoBART(Guaranteed)
MinimumAnnualPaymenttoBART(Guaranteed)
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel? 27
Digital Railway – Current State
FY16
Fiber&CellularRevenue
$8.5M
• UndergroundCellularNetwork• AboveGroundCellularTowers• DarkFiber
FY17
Fiber&CellularRevenue
$9.7M
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel? 28
Areas to Watch
• Potentialforfurtherridershipdeclines• BallotmeasuretorepealSB1,reducingBART’sSTAallocation
• NextEconomicDownturn• ImpactsofNationalPolicies
July31,2018 SPUR:WhatisPublicTransit’sBusinessModel? 30