basic education trends - hiroshima university · 2015. 6. 19. · 2011-2012 2007-2008 lower...

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Cambodia Education Development Trends and Post‐2015 Priorities

Tsuyoshi FukaoWorld Bank

Thematic Outline

Basic Education Trends

Education Financing

Basic Education Thematic Issues

Higher Education Trends and Issues

Post 2015 in Cambodia?

•Basic Education Trends•Education Financing

•Basic Education Thematic Issues

•Higher Education Trends and Issues

•Post 2015 in Cambodia?

NET ENROLLMENT: Improved across all grade levels

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

Year in primary Year in secondary

% students at appropriate

grade

Net Enrollment rate by year

2004 Net 2011 Net

Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 2013

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Gender Gap:Decreases and eventually disappears over time

‐1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1919

1924

1929

1934

1939

1944

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

Birth year

Female Male

GAP

School age


ENROLLMENT INEQUALITIES:Persistent differences across upper/lower quintiles

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

% of 15‐20 years old with completed

grad

es in 2011

Grade completed

Lowest quintile Highest quintile


•Basic Education Trends

•Education Financing •Basic Education Thematic Issues



NEED FOR GREATER RESOURCES:Challenges of access and teaching can only be met with greater outlays

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5.7%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Thai 2009 Thai 1994 Laos 2008 Myanmar2009

Vietnam2010

Vietnam2004

Cambodia

Poorest quintile’s private spending on education as share of total spending

(households with positive education spending)

LOW PUBLIC SPENDING:Higher economic burden for the poor

9

“Economic burden” = share of

household spending which

goes toward education

Source: World Bank calculations using household survey data from selected countries.

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING:Large gaps between upper/lower quintiles

Source: IFAPER, 2012

TOTAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING = 2.5% of GDP:Greater than public education expenditure

Poorest Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Richest Q

Source: IFAPER, 2012

EFFICIENT SPENDING: Ministry of Education greatly underspent its budget

Observation: National Defense and Social Affairs over-spent, while other Ministries under-spent. MoEYS had the lowest rate of budget expenditure amongst them.

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

100.0%

105.0%

110.0%

MoEYS NationalDefence

Health Interior(Security)

Social Affairs Commerce Labour andVT

Annual Budget Usage Rate

↑ Over-spent

↓ Under-spent

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UNDER‐SPENDING OF EDUCATION BUDGET

UNDER‐SPENDING OF EDUCATION BUDGET: 70% marked for renumeration

MOEYS RECURRENT BUDGET: Downward trend until 2013, up slightly in 2014

18.3

19.2

18.1

17.03 16.4

16.615.9

15.5

16.2

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: MEF


•Education Financing

•Basic Education Thematic Issues•Higher Education Trends and Issues


Two Key Issues:

1. High Rates of Dropout and Repetition

2. Shortage of Qualified Teachers

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HIGH DROP‐OUT AND REPETITION

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Stubbornly high

Source: EMIS/ADB

-Half of those who dropped out did so for economic reasons

-Many drop-outs are ‘overaged’ (close to market age)

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Why so many? = Economic Reasons and ‘Overaged’

Reason 1: Late entry to Grade 1

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Why so many ‘overaged’?

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Reason 2: High Repetition and drop-out during primary

cycle, particularly in the early grades.

19.6

14.4

11.3

7.8

10.9 11.4

30.9

22

19.818.3

17.3

14.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6

2011-2012

2007-2008

Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Why so many ‘overaged’?

Source: EMIS/MoEYS

High Dropout at LS ‐ Scholarship for poor students

Late entry to Grade 1‐ Expansion of ECE (late entry )‐ Enrolment campaign (late entry)

High repetition/drop‐out in Grade 1‐2‐ Early Grade Reading program

Effective Interventions:What do these look like?

High Drop Out at LS

WHY?

HH economic reasons

WHY?

Unaffordable education private cost

school age = working age

OVER AGE EnrolmentWHY?

High repetition in primary cycle

Late entry to G1Low teacher

capacity

WHY?

WHY?

CCT

ECE

Enrolment Campaign

EGRA

CCT

WHY?

???

Effective Interventions:What do these look like?

SHORTAGE OF QUALIFIED TEACHERS

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Shortage of Qualified Teachers:High Pupil‐Teacher Ratio

US holder60%

Non-US 40%

Primary teachers education level

US holder80%

Non-US 20%

Secondary teachers education level

<3060%

30<40%

Primary teachers age

Single75%

Double25%

Teachers shift

Male53%

Female

47%

All teachers gender

Male90%

Female10%

All School Directors gender

Shortage of Qualified Teachers:Who are the teachers?

Shortage of Qualified Teachers:How to attract, motivate, and retain high quality? •Basic Education Trends



•Higher Education Trends and Issues•Post 2015 in Cambodia?

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ENROLLEMENT AT HEIS: Rapid increase in student numbers not slowing

EXPANSION OF HEIS: Over the past 15 years, more than 60 HEIs established

CHOICE OF MAJOR:HALF OF STUDENTS MAJOR IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

73%

62%

38%

31%

23%

16%

12%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

University graduates do not have the right skills

Vocational training graduates do not have the rightskills

Not enough vocational training graduates

Difficult to train or up‐skill existing staff

Firms cannot afford to pay salaries that the marketdemands

Others

Not enough university graduates

Difficult to attract people to this industry

What are the underlying causes of your firm’s skills shortages?

Source: Survey by HRINC Cambodia, March 2011

QUALITY: HEIs not producing graduates with appropriate skills

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UNDER CONSTRUCTION:Key institutions still need to be developed

Source: SABER 2013

Vision 2030

ACC






HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:2015 as a transition point

2015

Post 2015 Priorities: ECE/Skills and Results Focus

More resource to ECCD and Skill oriented field (Secondary/Tertiary/TVET)

Improve implementation and results focus

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Why ECCD and Tertiary?

:To raise employability

Brain Growth

Rates of Return to Investment in Human Capital

Preschool SchoolPost School

Preschool Programs

Schooling

Job Training

Age0

WHY EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION?:Brain Growth versus Rates of Return

Source: Heckman & Carneiro Human Social Policy, 2003, RAND, Benefits and Costs of Early-Childhood Interventions, A Documented Briefing, Lynn A. Karoly, Susan S. Everingham, Jill Hoube, Rebecca Kilburn, C. Peter Rydell, Matthew Sanders, Peter W. Greenwood, April, 1997

(ASEAN):Preparing Students for Regional Mobility/Integration

Engineering

Nursing service

Architectural services

Surveying qualification

Medical practitioners

Dental practitioners

Accountancy

Tourism Professions

40

Policy frameworkGovernment

program

Sector strategies

Budget allocation

OutturnTimely

disbursements in accordance

with established policies and

priorities

Outputs Impact Outcomes

The ideal situation

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Gaps between Ideal/Real

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41


program

Sector strategies

Budget allocation

OutturnTimely



priorities

Outputs Impact Outcomes

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Gaps between Ideal/Real

42


program

Sector strategies

OutturnTimely



priorities

Outputs Impact OutcomesBudget allocation

(i) Result Based Planning and Budgeting

(including capital budget)

(ii) Inclusion of implementer in full budget formulation

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Budget should be results based

43


program

Sector strategies

Budget allocation Outputs Impact Outcomes

OutturnTimely



priorities

(iii) Shorter process of budget execution for generating expected output on time

(iv) Regular budget monitoring and fed back into

budget cycle

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Timely disbursement to ensure expected outcome

44


program

Sector strategies

Budget allocation

OutturnTimely



priorities

Outputs OutcomesImpact

(vi) Increase transparency and accountability at school level for higher impact (e.g. community involvement)

(v) Strengthen service delivery system at school level (e.g. revise incentive structure)

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Higher transparency and accountability for max. impact

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SOCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY:Improves implementation

53.6%

82.6%

117.4%

86.9%

0.0% 0.0%

90.3%86.2%

0.0%

42.5%

35.4%

42.0%

54.2%

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total

2010-11 NEW2010-11 NEW

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION:Shortage of textbooks, 2010‐2011

65.4%

90.3%

107.4%

94.1% 94.1%

0.0%

102.5%106.6%

111.8%

47.4%41.5%

46.0%

73.6%

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total

2011-12 New Textbooks Availability Rate2011-12 NEW

IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION:Shortage of textbooks, 2011‐2012

48

SPENDING MATTERS … BUT SPENDING WISELY MATTERS MORE

Investing on inputsalone has impact ..… but only goes so far

Promoting good governance, incentives and accountability reforms can bring more “bang for buck”

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POST 2015 IN CAMBODIA- A transition point to the ESP 2014-18

- Shift from primary to ECCD and Skill oriented fields

- Greater focus on implementation and results

- (Personally) More resource on education for disabled children and those who are marginalized (follow-up agenda to EFA)

We’ve seen….

Basic Education Trends

Education Financing

Basic Education Thematic Issues

Higher Education Trends and Issues

Post 2015 in Cambodia?

However, Cambodia….

Ranks 4th in the world in poverty reduction over 5 years

Ranks 5th in the world in MDG progress

AND

Ranks 1st (in East Asia) in improvement of Human Development Index over a decade …

7%

12%

15%

16% 16%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

World Vietnam EAP China Lao Cambodia

% change 2000‐2010

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THANK YOUEmail: [email protected]

basic education trends - hiroshima university · 2015. 6. 19. · 2011-2012 2007-2008 lower...

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