baskin ucsc panel feb 18 2009 peter borden
DESCRIPTION
Can renewable energy save the world? Panel discussion held by University of California, Santa Cruz February 11 2009. Peter Borden, Awais Khan, Ali Shakouri.TRANSCRIPT
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Peter Borden
PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics
11 January 2009
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Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Supply U.S. Annual Electricity Demand
= 0.4% of total U.S. land area = 1/3 of U.S. land covered by roadways= 2.5 times the area of all single-family residential rooftops= 400 times 2008 display glass demand (100 km2)
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Nevada120 miles x 120 miles
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Solar America volume-driven predictions
(F) (F) (F)
Baseline1-1.3X
1.3-2.0X2-3.0X
>3.0X
PG&E E1 tiered residential rate/kWhr
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PV growing rapidly, but small compared to demand
California annual usage is 240,000 kWhr (Cal ISO).
Equals 150 GW of PV assuming mean insolation of 1600 kWhr/kW.
Source: Greentech Media
60% growth!
Module shortage due to silicon supply
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Domestic rooftops – a great early market
2.7 kW PV array(14 SunPower panels, ~18%), $6/watt after rebates, -$50 electric bill last year)
Planned tower for 2,700 kW wind turbine
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6
Commercial Rooftop (grid-connected)
Sizes from tens of kW to >2 MW
Applied Matrials – 2 MW Google – 1.5 MW
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Solar Farms
Biggest solar farm is 65MW; farms over 100MW are in the near future!
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Scaling changes market dynamicsScaling changes market dynamics
Lower cost enabled Lower cost enabled FPDsFPDs to replace CRTsto replace CRTs
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Cumulative Volume (MW)
Module manufacturing cost scalingModule manufacturing cost scaling
* 2002 DollarsSource: Navigant Consulting
Production line size (Megawatts per Year):
Lines Per Factory
0.5(1980)
2
5(2000)
3
50(2005)
4
100(2010)
10
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1E5
HistoricalHistoricalProjectedProjected
19801980$21.83/W$21.83/W
19901990$6.07/W$6.07/W
20052005$2.70/W$2.70/WM
odul
e C
ost (
$/W
)*
18% learning curve18% learning curve
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The two mainstream types of PV
Higher efficiency for area constrained markets(Greater revenue compensates for
higher installed $/watt)
Wafer-based Crystal Silicon
Lower efficiency for cost constrained markets (Sufficient area available to meet generation
needs gives advantage to lower installed $/watt)
Thin Film
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2007 Module Efficiency – c-Si and Thin Film
Photon International Survey
19.3
16.7
15.1
13.7 13.314.2 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.0 13.8
13.113.7
14.313.5 13.3
12.8
11.1 11.0
8.5
6.67.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sunpo
werSan
yoBP LG
BCSha
rp Mon
oSha
rp Mult
iKyo
cera
Suntec
h Mono
Suntec
h Multi
Motech
Mon
oMote
ch M
ulti
Deutsch
e Mono
Deutsch
e Multi
Mitsub
shi JA BP
Schott M
ultiSch
ott EFG
First S
olar
CISSha
rp TF
Other a
-Si
CSG
Effic
ienc
y (%
)
Advanced silicon
CZ and MC silicon
Thin film
Thin Film suppliers need higher module efficiency with low manufacturing costs
Silicon suppliers need incremental efficiency and cost gains to stay ahead of TF
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Summary
PV is one of many players in the energy picture. Flexible system size, low maintenance enable it to effectively serve many markets
Today, supply is small, but growing rapidly
Scaling and competition between PV technologies is driving down cost per watt.
As costs come down, PV will penetrate larger markets
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