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BastropIndependentSchoolDistrict

Demographic Study

Spring 2017

Economic Conditions – Austin Area (February 2017)

UnemploymentRate

0.5%

25,260 new jobsNational rate 1.5%

Job Growth

2.4%86 more

starts than 2015

Bastrop ISD AnnualHome Starts

137

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 4.9%Texas 5.1%

Austin MSA 3.7%Bastrop Co 4.1%

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Local Economic Update

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Source: 2016 Survey by Workforce Solutions

Bastrop Business and Industrial Park• 263 acres of land open to businesses and commercial entities• Includes:

• Johnson Architectural Metal Company (JAMCo)• Deep in the Heart Art Foundry• The Coghlan Group• Garments to Go• Dig Tech / Line Tech• Bluebonnet Trails MHMR

Major Employers w/ 100+ Employees

Employer NameNumber of Employees

Bastrop Independent School District 1,100Hyatt Regency Lost Pines Resort 675Bastrop County 460MD Anderson Cancer Center 430H-E-B Food Store 400Walmart 320Bastrop Federal Correctional Institution 284Buc-ee’s 173Bluebonnet Electric Co-op 154Southside Market & Barbecue 150Agilent/Stratagene 140Lowe's Home Improvement 133Griffin Industries / Darling International 125Home Depot 122City of Bastrop 122First National Bank 116Academy Sports & Outdoors 110Covert Chevrolet 110

36.23%40.57%

15.42%

6.89%

0.90%

2016 ResaleHomes by

Price

Bastrop ISD Home Sales

• Bastrop ISD had 1,239 home sales in 2016, and 5% were new homes

• The median sale price in 2016 for a new home in BISD was $233,874

• The median sale price in 2016 for an existing home in BISD was $181,047

2016 Home Sales by Price

7.55%

52.83%

26.42%

11.32%

1.89%2016 NewHome Sales

by Price

<$150K$150K-$250K$250K-$350K$350K-$500K>$500K

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Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Leander ISD 2,269 2,070 3,235 13,3532 Austin ISD 2,434 1,803 1,550 10,2193 Hays CISD 1,400 1,369 1,139 17,4324 Round Rock ISD 1,218 1,235 1,770 3,1175 Georgetown ISD 1,220 1,216 1,929 18,4896 Pflugerville ISD 1,279 1,159 1,752 12,3067 Del Valle ISD 963 861 757 30,7698 Hutto ISD 931 840 1,152 4,8109 Manor ISD 873 816 1,102 16,03010 Lake Travis ISD 890 718 2,130 2,87311 Liberty Hill ISD 514 456 1,522 5,87812 Dripping Springs ISD 461 375 1,216 3,82413 Jarrell ISD 260 198 151 7,54914 San Marcos ISD 178 144 273 8,23215 Elgin ISD 65 82 50 5,95716 Bastrop ISD 137 78 1,408 18,071*17 Lockhart ISD 93 70 20 1,39418 Lago Vista ISD 44 69 526 3,27119 Taylor ISD 64 66 78 5420 Luling ISD 57 57 3 0

Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16

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*Metrostudy data does not include manufactured homes and MF units

New Housing Activity 4Q16

• Bastrop ISD had the highest number of closings in 4Q16, since 4Q13 (26)• District new home closings were down slightly in 2016, but expect to rise in

early 2017 due to a jump in 4Q16 new home starts• The district has 81 homes currently under construction

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Bastrop ISD

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161Q 19 16 18 29 45 1Q 16 17 23 18 322Q 14 23 10 9 16 2Q 9 15 28 39 73Q 9 16 41 6 23 3Q 18 17 18 23 184Q 17 26 23 7 53 4Q 11 23 23 13 21

Total 59 81 92 51 137 Total 54 72 92 93 78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Starts Closings

Top 9 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q16 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank Subdivision StatusAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 CASSENA RANCH ACTIVE 28 26 02 PECAN PARK ACTIVE 16 56 5653 COLONY/MEADOWLANDS ACTIVE 12 28 04 COLONY/SINGLE FAMILY ACTIVE 10 43 2,5455 ARBOR HILLS ACTIVE 4 46 06 FOREST AT COLORADO CROSSING ACTIVE 4 18 07 RIVER MEADOWS ACTIVE 2 2 08 WOODRUN ACTIVE 1 6 629 ROCKING S ESTATES ACTIVE 1 20 0

TOTALS 78 260 3,172

Annual Closing Distribution 4Q16

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District Housing Overview

• Bastrop ISD has 1,400 lots available to build on

• The district has more than 18,000 future lots planned

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Active Development

Future Development

_̂

_̂_̂ _̂

_̂_̂

_̂

EMILEELEM

MINAELEM

BASTROPMID

BASTROPINT

BASTROPHIGH

GENESISHIGH

GATEWAY

¬«150

¬«71

¬«95

¬«304

EMILE

MINA

Active DevelopmentRiver’s Bend at Pecan Park

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River’s Bend atPecan Park

• 683 total lots• 565 future lots• 16 occupied• 40 U/C• 56 VDL• 69 acres of commercial

development• 45 lots under construction,

anticipate delivery to builders by Fall 2017

• An additional 62 lots anticipated delivery by January 2018

• Anticipate building 40-45 a year• $220K - $270K• Mina Elementary

Active Development

Tahitian Village• 6,438 total lots• 1,330 occupied • 15 U/C• Approx. 5,000 VDL• Roughly half of VDL are unpaved roadways• 80 new home construction permits issued in 2016• $220K - $300K• Mina and Emile Elementary

Tahitian Village

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_̂

_̂ _̂

FM969

FM1209

BLUEBONNETELEM

BASTROPMID

BASTROPINT

BLUEBONNET

MINA

Active SubdivisionThe Colony

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The Colony• Approx 3,280 total lots• 1,312 acres remaining• Approx 2,625 future lots (may

change due to new plans)• Development currently under

new ownership• Future phases will be

resubmitted for city approval• 230 lots were delivered to

builders in January 2017• Building 20-40 a year• $300K-$380K• Split between Bluebonnet and

Mina Elementary

FM812

CEDARCREEK

REDROCK

Active DevelopmentsRio Vista Ranch

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Rio Vista Ranch• 206 total lots• Section 4 currently has 64 VDL• 36 permits issued for new home

constructions, including 13 permits for manufactured homes

• Cedar Creek Elementary

Section 4

Future SubdivisionPiney Creek Bend

13

_̂

_̂

_̂

MINAELEM

BASTROPHIGH

GENESISHIGH

¬«95

EMILE

MINAPiney Creek Bend

• 170 future lots• Currently going through final

agreement meetings with city• Groundwork starting on Phase 1

by July 2017• All future SF lots will fall

within Emile Elementary zone

_̂

FM1441

FM2336

FM 969

LOSTPINESELEM

¬«95

BLUEBONNET

EMILE

LOSTPINES

MINA

Future SubdivisionXS Ranch

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XS Ranch• 8,219 total lots• Phase 1 will be focusing on building active

adult sections with general population • Approx. 2,500 units will be age restricted• Estimated absorption rates:

• 2018 = 50-70 homes• 2019 = 100-150 homes

• Mina Elementary

Future FM 969 roadway and

bridge

Student Distribution

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2015‐16 2016‐17 DifferenceTotal Students 10,275 10,440 165Out of District 96 112 16Unmatched 104 137 33Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 10,075 10,191 116Multi‐Family 

Students in MF 184 174 ‐10MF Units 642 642 0% Students in MF 1.8% 1.7% ‐0.1%MF Yield 0.29 0.27 ‐0.02

Single FamilyStudents in SF 9,676 9,816 140SF Parcels 15,710 15,885 175% Students in SF 96.0% 96.3% 0.3%SF Yield  0.62 0.62 0.0

Manufactured HomesStudents in MH 215 201 ‐14MH Units 650 650 0% Students in MH 2.1% 2.0% ‐0.1%MH Yield 0.33 0.31 ‐0.02

• 96% of Bastrop ISD students reside on single family lots

• In 2016/17, 174 Bastrop ISD students reside within Multi-family units

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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• Bastrop ISD will enroll more than 11,000 students by 2018

• 5 year growth = 1,529 students

• 2021/22 enrollment = 12,068

• 10 year growth = 2,866 students

• 2026/27 enrollment = 13,405

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

Growth% 

Growth2012/13 342 680 734 716 720 683 705 687 724 688 897 530 606 590 9,3022013/14 398 643 727 735 728 722 716 726 719 761 864 715 589 532 9,575 273 2.93%2014/15 385 718 724 753 780 733 762 739 756 750 975 667 659 527 9,928 353 3.69%2015/16 453 656 776 761 794 774 745 763 778 790 847 818 675 648 10,278 350 3.53%2016/17 392 709 732 811 771 844 813 786 799 812 912 790 740 628 10,539 261 2.54%2017/18 392 729 775 764 842 775 888 842 815 842 957 782 759 709 10,871 332 3.15%2018/19 392 739 800 807 801 854 802 933 865 861 996 820 749 725 11,143 272 2.51%2019/20 392 771 814 833 843 809 890 840 972 896 1,026 853 786 714 11,439 296 2.66%2020/21 392 767 847 848 873 850 844 925 870 1,011 1,074 878 817 749 11,744 305 2.66%2021/22 392 802 841 881 887 886 883 883 966 906 1,208 917 839 778 12,068 324 2.76%2022/23 392 812 883 880 919 899 923 922 918 1,008 1,081 1,030 871 787 12,325 257 2.13%2023/24 392 831 894 923 920 932 936 962 959 960 1,180 924 975 816 12,604 279 2.26%2024/25 392 844 919 934 964 935 971 977 1,002 1,002 1,147 995 879 912 12,872 268 2.13%2025/26 392 855 934 965 974 980 974 1,013 1,017 1,046 1,197 968 944 824 13,083 211 1.64%2026/27 392 874 943 980 1,008 990 1,022 1,017 1,054 1,062 1,251 1,010 918 884 13,405 322 2.46%

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

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*Yellow box = Campus enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity 

Capacity w/ portables

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

Bluebonnet Elementary 926 833 832 868 886 921 929 940 964 992 1,021 1,042Cedar Creek Elementary 965 790 812 837 845 859 868 868 867 864 865 862Emile Elementary 750 576 594 616 644 682 714 738 769 783 796 796Lost Pines Elementary 882 750 750 746 750 731 725 725 732 737 744 754Mina Elementary 750 616 617 632 650 702 758 814 862 913 960 1,001Red Rock Elementary 838 694 672 694 687 682 695 700 698 699 714 732ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 4,259 4,277 4,393 4,462 4,577 4,689 4,785 4,892 4,988 5,100 5,187Elementary Absolute Growth 45 18 116 69 115 112 96 107 96 112 87Elementary Percent Growth 1.07% 0.42% 2.71% 1.57% 2.58% 2.45% 2.05% 2.24% 1.96% 2.25% 1.71%Bastrop Intermediate 850 729 759 799 822 828 818 847 881 928 972 1,005Cedar Creek Intermediate 894 866 966 932 904 936 944 994 1,013 1,016 1,011 1,029INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,595 1,725 1,731 1,726 1,764 1,762 1,841 1,894 1,944 1,983 2,034Intermediate Absolute Growth 88 130 6 ‐5 38 ‐2 79 53 50 39 51intermediate Percent Growth 5.84% 8.16% 0.34% ‐0.30% 2.23% ‐0.13% 4.47% 2.89% 2.62% 2.02% 2.56%Bastrop Middle School 750 754 787 797 833 875 897 911 899 930 968 1,019Cedar Creek Middle School 800 852 865 923 1,031 1,001 970 1,010 1,015 1,069 1,091 1,093Gateway School (5th‐8th) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,615 1,662 1,729 1,873 1,885 1,875 1,930 1,923 2,008 2,068 2,122Middle School Absolute Growth 46 47 68 144 12 ‐9 55 ‐7 85 60 54Middle School Percent Growth 2.93% 2.88% 4.07% 8.30% 0.65% ‐0.49% 2.93% ‐0.38% 4.40% 2.98% 2.62%Bastrop High School 1,950 1,329 1,353 1,417 1,447 1,511 1,596 1,636 1,709 1,744 1,751 1,790Cedar Creek High School 1,550 1,479 1,530 1,544 1,603 1,678 1,817 1,804 1,857 1,860 1,853 1,944Gateway School (9th‐12th) 60 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19Genesis High School 175 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82Colorado River Collegiate Acad 575 161 223 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,070 3,207 3,290 3,379 3,518 3,742 3,769 3,895 3,933 3,933 4,063High School Absolute Growth 82 137 83 89 139 224 27 126 38 0 130High School Percent Growth 2.74% 4.46% 2.59% 2.71% 4.11% 6.37% 0.72% 3.34% 0.98% 0.00% 3.31%

DISTRICT TOTALS 10,539 10,871 11,143 11,439 11,744 12,068 12,325 12,604 12,872 13,083 13,405District Absolute Growth 261 332 272 296 304 324 257 279 268 211 322District Percent Growth 2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 2.5%

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus w/ Functional Capacity

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Functional Capacity

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

Bluebonnet Elementary 750 833 832 868 886 921 929 940 964 992 1,021 1,042Cedar Creek Elementary 833 790 812 837 845 859 868 868 867 864 865 862Emile Elementary 750 576 594 616 644 682 714 738 769 783 796 796Lost Pines Elementary 750 750 750 746 750 731 725 725 732 737 744 754Mina Elementary 750 616 617 632 650 702 758 814 862 913 960 1,001Red Rock Elementary 750 694 672 694 687 682 695 700 698 699 714 732ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 4,259 4,277 4,393 4,462 4,577 4,689 4,785 4,892 4,988 5,100 5,187Elementary Absolute Growth 45 18 116 69 115 112 96 107 96 112 87Elementary Percent Growth 1.07% 0.42% 2.71% 1.57% 2.58% 2.45% 2.05% 2.24% 1.96% 2.25% 1.71%Bastrop Intermediate 850 729 759 799 822 828 818 847 881 928 972 1,005Cedar Creek Intermediate 850 866 966 932 904 936 944 994 1,013 1,016 1,011 1,029INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,595 1,725 1,731 1,726 1,764 1,762 1,841 1,894 1,944 1,983 2,034Intermediate Absolute Growth 88 130 6 ‐5 38 ‐2 79 53 50 39 51intermediate Percent Growth 5.84% 8.16% 0.34% ‐0.30% 2.23% ‐0.13% 4.47% 2.89% 2.62% 2.02% 2.56%Bastrop Middle School 750 754 787 797 833 875 897 911 899 930 968 1,019Cedar Creek Middle School 750 852 865 923 1,031 1,001 970 1,010 1,015 1,069 1,091 1,093Gateway School (5th‐8th) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,615 1,662 1,729 1,873 1,885 1,875 1,930 1,923 2,008 2,068 2,122Middle School Absolute Growth 46 47 68 144 12 ‐9 55 ‐7 85 60 54Middle School Percent Growth 2.93% 2.88% 4.07% 8.30% 0.65% ‐0.49% 2.93% ‐0.38% 4.40% 2.98% 2.62%Bastrop High School 1,600 1,329 1,353 1,417 1,447 1,511 1,596 1,636 1,709 1,744 1,751 1,790Cedar Creek High School 1,500 1,479 1,530 1,544 1,603 1,678 1,817 1,804 1,857 1,860 1,853 1,944Gateway School (9th‐12th) 60 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19Genesis High School 175 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82Colorado River Collegiate Acad 575 161 223 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,070 3,207 3,290 3,379 3,518 3,742 3,769 3,895 3,933 3,933 4,063High School Absolute Growth 82 137 83 89 139 224 27 126 38 0 130High School Percent Growth 2.74% 4.46% 2.59% 2.71% 4.11% 6.37% 0.72% 3.34% 0.98% 0.00% 3.31%

DISTRICT TOTALS 10,539 10,871 11,143 11,439 11,744 12,068 12,325 12,604 12,872 13,083 13,405District Absolute Growth 261 332 272 296 304 324 257 279 268 211 322District Percent Growth 2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 2.5%

*Yellow box = Campus enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity 

Summary

• Bastrop County has a current unemployment rate of 4.1%.

• Bastrop ISD had 137 new home starts in 2016, a rise of 86 units, or 160% over 2015.

• District new home closings were down slightly in 2016, however, they will rise in 2017 as inventory is completed and sold.

• Groundwork starting in Piney Creek Bend this summer.

• BISD can expect an increase of 1,530 students during the next 5 years.

• 2021/22 enrollment projection = 12,068.

• Bastrop ISD is projected to have 13,405 students for the 2026/27 school year.

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