bath & north east somerset economic profile january 2006...bristol area is very much the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Bath & North East Somerset
Economic Profile January 2006
Kate Jenner Economic Development Contributions from Jacob Salder
Making Bath and North East Somerset a better place to Live, Work and Visit
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Contents Objective ...................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction............................................................................................ 5
1.1. Location ...............................................................................................................5 1.2. Population ............................................................................................................6 1.3. Services and amenities .......................................................................................8
2. Economic Profile ................................................................................... 9 2.1. Economic Structure ............................................................................................9 2.2. Business and Enterprise ..................................................................................10 2.3. Land and Property.............................................................................................13
3. Labour Market ...................................................................................... 22 3.1. Economic Activity .............................................................................................22 3.2. Unemployment...................................................................................................22 3.3. Employment .......................................................................................................23 4. Housing..................................................................................................................25
5. Travel to Work...................................................................................... 28 6. Education and Skills............................................................................ 29 7. Indices of Deprivation ......................................................................... 30 8. Conclusions ......................................................................................... 31
8.1. Challenges .........................................................................................................31 8.2. Opportunities .....................................................................................................32
Appendix 1: Map of Bath and North East Somerset................................ 33 Appendix 2: Indices of Deprivation maps................................................ 33
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Index of Figures Figure 1: Bath & North East Somerset located within the sub-region ..................................5 Figure 2: Population split within Bath & North East Somerset .............................................6 Figure 3: Population change by age ....................................................................................7 Figure 4: Age structure of population (%) ............................................................................7 Figure 5: Population growth forecast ...................................................................................8 Figure 6: Employees in employment by sector, 2004 ..........................................................9 Figure 7: Employees in Employment by sector, 1998 – 2004 ............................................10 Figure 8: Distribution of employment by size of establishment, 2004 ................................11 Figure 9: Strategic Sites and Industrial Estates in Bath and North East Somerset ............14 Figure 10: Premises Supply 2005......................................................................................16 Figure 11: Available Premises by Location Q4 2005 .........................................................17 Figure 12: Q4 05/06 Available Floor Space .......................................................................18 Figure 13: Property Enquiries by Quarter 2005 .................................................................20 Figure 14: Property Enquiries by Location 2005 ................................................................20 Figure 15: Premises Type Demand by Location, 2005 ......................................................21 Figure 16: Spatial Demand by Location, 2005 ...................................................................22 Figure 17: Range of employment by occupation, 2001......................................................25 Figure 18: Proportion of the population privately renting and owner occupying, 1991 and
2001............................................................................................................................26 Figure 19: Change in average house prices based on actual sales Oct - Dec...................27 Figure 20: Distance travelled to work by method of travel, 2001 .......................................29 Figure 21: Level of qualifications, 2001 (% of people) .......................................................30 Index of Tables Table 1: Major Employers in Bath and North East Somerset.............................................11 Table 2: Available Commercial Floor Space in Bath & North East Somerset ....................19 Table 3: Claimant Count with Proportions, December 2005 ..............................................23 Table 4: % Employment Change between 1996 and 2004 ................................................23 Table 5: Average price of dwellings sold in Bath and North East Somerset (period Oct -
Dec) ............................................................................................................................26 Table 6: Commuter movements in Bath and North East Somerset ...................................28
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Objective This Economic Profile of Bath aims to achieve a number of objectives:
• To provide an easily accessible and up-to-date economic profile of the area, inclusive of all elements which the economy is built on.
• To highlight the key opportunities and challenges for the area • To act as a baseline, against which change in the area can be monitored
1. Introduction
Bath and North East Somerset has existed as an administrative area for nearly 10 years, following the division of the former county of Avon. The area covers around 346 km² in the South West region of England. The South West itself is an area of innovation and enterprise with GDP and employment growth consistently higher than GB average. With three Universities, 26% of registered companies and 20% of the population the Bath-Bristol area is very much the regional focus for businesses. The West of England sub-region has been designated a core city-region which encompasses each of the four unitary authorities of Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire.
1.1. Location
Bath and North East Somerset comprises of the urban areas of Bath, Keynsham, Midsomer Norton and Radstock and their rural hinterland. The boundaries of Bath and North East Somerset stretch out from Bath in the north east of the area, to Midsomer Norton and Radstock in the south, Keynsham in the north and the Chew Valley to the west. Bath and North East Somerset is dissected by both the M4 motorway and the mainline rail service from London to South Wales along the Bath / Keynsham route.
Figure 1: Bath & North East Somerset located within the sub-region
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The area lies about an hour and a half to the west of London by train and only 40 minutes by road from the nearest international airport at Bristol, from the furthest point. Bath is Bath and North East Somerset’s largest urban area and has World Heritage Site status assigned to it.
1.2. Population Bath and North East Somerset has a total population of 169,040 people. Based on the mid-year population estimates the working age population (ages 16 – 64) make up 61.9% of the total population, this compares evenly to a South West population of 59.9% and a national (GB) average of 62%. Figure 2: Population split within Bath & North East Somerset
Source: Census 2001
From 1981 to 2004 the population has largely showed a trend of growth, however, this growth has not been spread evenly over the age range. Bath and North East Somerset has experienced a net loss of pre-1 year, 10 – 19, 25 – 34 and 60 – 74 year olds, meanwhile, the greatest growth has been seen in the 40 – 44 age range with high growth across the whole 35 – 59 age range.
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
Bath Keynsham Norton Radstock Rural
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Figure 3: Population change by age
Source: Mid-year population estimates (2004) When compared to the age structure of the population of England, the latest figures for Bath and North East Somerset show a higher than average proportion of 15 – 25 year olds, and those people of the age 65+. There are proportionately fewer people aged 25 – 44 years. Figure 4: Age structure of population (%)
0%
5%10%
15%
20%
0 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65+
Bath and North East Somerset England
Source: Mid-year population estimates (2004)
Population Change by age 1981 - 2004
-4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
01-4yrs5-9yrs10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84
85+
Number of residents
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The Office of National Statistics 2003 Population Forecast figures show Bath and North East Somerset maintaining steady population growth to 2028 reaching 190,000 in the authority area. Figure 5: Population growth forecast
Source: Sub-national population forecasts (2003)
1.3. Services and amenities An assessment of available expenditure and existing shopping patterns within the District suggests that convenience goods retail floor space within Bath and North East Somerset is trading above average in 2004. Bath City Centre is the main shopping centre attracting shoppers from across Bath and North East Somerset and beyond. The other three smaller town centres in Bath and North East Somerset are lower order centres that do not compete directly with Bath. These centres primarily serve day to day shopping and service needs. Bath City Centre competes with other major shopping destinations in the sub-region including Bristol, Cheltenham and Swindon. The city of Bath and each of the towns have a range of services and amenities. Those in Bath include specialist and local needs shopping as well as a range of leisure facilities including several large parks, a leisure centre, restaurants, pubs, theatre and a large modern cinema, as well as providing day-to-day services such as post offices and several GP surgeries, most of which are within 5 minutes walk of city-centre residents. Keynsham and Midsomer Norton & Radstock also offer local needs shopping and have a limited amount of comparison goods shops. The towns also both provide entertainment and leisure facilities including a leisure centre, pubs, cafes and restaurants, banks, estate agents, travel agents, hairdressers and the library. Nathaniel Lichfield & partners Bath and North East Somerset City and Town Centres Study (October 2004)
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
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eopl
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2. Economic Profile
2.1. Economic Structure In order to provide a range of employment to residents of the area and to offset the effects of wider economic change, a location needs a balance of employment across all sectors. The sector employment structure across Bath & North East Somerset overall generally follows national patterns, although Service Sector employment is above national averages whilst manufacturing jobs account for only 8% of total employment, less than the national figure. There are, however, significant variations in employment patterns within Bath & North East Somerset. Bath has the largest proportion of service sector employment and proportionately less manufacturing employment than Bath and North East Somerset as a whole. Conversely, Midsomer Norton and Radstock area where manufacturing jobs account for almost 30% of local employment, 2.5 times the national average. Figure 6: Employees in employment by sector, 2004
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
Prim
ary
Indu
stry
Man
ufac
turin
g
Ele
ctric
ity, g
asan
d w
ater
sup
ply
Con
stru
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n
Who
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ion;
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ir
Hot
els
and
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e an
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unic
atio
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Fina
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and
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Hea
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ndso
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wor
k
Oth
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ervi
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tiviti
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Bath Keynsham Midsomer Norton and Radstock Rural Bath and North East Somerset England
Source: Annual Business Inquiry Although jobs in Bath and North East Somerset are relatively stable, each area has its own sensitivity. Within Bath a high number of jobs are provided in the public sector which is considered to be a no growth or potentially declining employer. In Midsomer Norton and Radstock the printing and packaging industry is vulnerable, demonstrated by the recent closure of Polestar’s operation. The manufacturing sector in Keynsham is also vulnerable due to dependence on one large employer, Cadbury Trebor Bassett Ltd, additionally employment in business services is falling and there is uncertainty around the position of public administration jobs in the town.
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Figure 7: Employees in Employment by sector, 1998 – 2004
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Man
ufac
turin
g
Prim
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Indu
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and
Con
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Dis
tribu
tion,
hot
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and
rest
aura
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Tran
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com
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Ban
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, fin
ance
and
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Pub
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istra
tion,
educ
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hea
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Oth
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ervi
ces
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Annual Business Inquiry Overall, Bath and North East Somerset had experienced a growth in the public administration, education and health sectors and a notable decline in manufacturing and distribution, hotels and restaurants. The 2004 figure shows the public sector to be the largest employer accounting for 42% of all jobs, followed by tourism based jobs at 24%. Jobs in tourism are often considered to be part-time, seasonal, low quality and informal. Such jobs are typically occupied by migrants and females offering low wages and casual employment terms. Further uncertainty arises around the stability of jobs in tourism given the marked impacts global factors have on visitor numbers.
2.2. Business and Enterprise The distribution of employees split by size of business they work for is considered to be a good indicator of how dynamic the labour market is. Those areas which have a high proportion of employees working in small and medium size enterprises enjoy a more dynamic labour market and have a lower risk of high impact company closures. Bath and North East Somerset largely reflects the patterns of employment distribution by size of establishment found across the West of England and nationally, although there is slightly higher employment in large companies of 200 employees and over. Local variations see Bath with a lower employment level in small businesses reflecting the levels of employment in public administration and defence in the City, whilst rural areas experience the highest levels of employment in small businesses. The latter could reflect the relatively high levels of self-employment in the Bath and North East Somerset rural area at 20% of all people working compared to 14% nationally.
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Figure 8: Distribution of employment by size of establishment, 2004
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bath MidsomerNorton andRadstock
Keynsham Rural Bath andNorth EastSomerset
West ofEngland
Great Britain
1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199 employees 200 or more employees
Source: Annual Business Inquiry Table 1: Major Employers in Bath and North East Somerset Company and Location Number of
Employees Brief Description
Bath and North East Somerset Council Trimbridge House Trim Street Bath BA1 2DP
6400 Local Government www.bathnes.gov.uk
Royal United Hospital Bath NHS Trust Coombe Park BATH BA1 3NG
3500 Hospital activities www.ruh-bath.swest.nhs.uk
University of Bath The Avenue Claverton Down BATH BA2 7AY
2352 Higher education establishment www.bath.ac.uk
Wessex Water Claverton Down BATH BA2 7WW
1500 Collection, purification and distribution of water
www.wessexwater.co.uk
Helphire Group Plc Beazer House Lower Bristol Rd BATH BA2 3BA
800 Renting of automobiles www.helphire.co.uk
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The Robinia Care Group Ltd Carriage Court 25 Circus Mews BATH BA1 2PW
700 Social work activities with accommodation www.robinia.co.uk
Future Publishing Ltd Beauford Court 30 Monmouth St BATH BA1 2BW
650 Publishing of newspapers and magazines www.futurenet.co.uk
Cadbury Trebor Bassett Ltd Somerdale Keynsham BRISTOL BS31 2AU
600 Manufacture of sugar confectionary www.cadbury.co.uk
Bath Spa University Newton Park Newton St. Loe BATH BA2 9BN
600 Higher Education Establishment www.bathspa.ac.uk
Bath & North East Somerset Primary Care Trust St. Martins Hospital Midfrod Rd BATH BA2 5RP
600 Provision of medical support services www.banes-pct.nhs.uk
Yeo Valley Farms (Production) Ltd Lag Farm Blagdon BRISTOL BS40 7SG
600 Organic production of yogurt, cream and ice cream www.yeovalleyorganic.co.uk
City of Bath College Avon St BATH BA1 1UP
500 Further Education Establishment www.citybathcol.ac.uk
Walter Lawrence Civil and Mechanical Ltd Lawrence House Lower Bristol Rd BATH BA2 9ET
500 General construction of buildings and civil engineering works www.walter-lawrence.co.uk
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Sainsbury's Supermarkets Ltd Green Park Station Green Park Rd BATH BA1 2DR
500 Supermarket www.sainsburys.co.uk
Buro Happold Camden Mill Lower Bristol Rd BATH BA2 3DQ
400 Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy www.burohappold.com
Somer Community Housing Trust The Maltings River Place Lower Bristol Rd BATH BA2 1EP
311 Social work activities with accommodation www.somer.org.uk
2.3. Land and Property
The type and availability of commercial premises in Bath and North East Somerset and demand for commercial premises gives a picture of business and enterprise in the area. Bath and North East Somerset has a number of industrial estates and office provision is particularly high in Bath city centre.
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Figure 9: Strategic Sites and Industrial Estates in Bath and North East Somerset
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Bath and North East Somerset has a total commercial floor space supply of 9,166,193m², 71% of which is industrial reflecting the relatively larger space requirements of industrial business over office based business. Whilst Midsomer Norton and Radstock boast the greatest amount of industrial floor space, Bath dominates the office market with 81% of the provision. Vacancy rates sit at around 9% for offices across Bath and North East Somerset and 3% for industrial vacancies, there are significant local variations, for example the vacancy rate for offices is 15% in Keynsham but only 2% in the rural area (ODPM 2003 figures updated to 2005 using Bath and North East Somerset Council’s Planning Policy Annual Monitoring report). Supply The quantity of available premises in Bath & North East Somerset has remained relatively consistent throughout 2005. At its peak, during the second quarter, there were 251 registered properties on the market whilst the lowest point was quarter 4 where 216 premises were available. With an overall range of 35 between this peak and trough market fluctuations across 2005 have been considerably lower than in previous years, with 2003 and 2004 displaying ranges of 65 and 95 respectively. Office vacancies account for the majority of available stock, averaging 44% of vacancies occurring over the year, but the supply has fallen during 2005. In the first quarter there were 120 premises in the marketplace but this dropped steadily across the year to 86 registered as available in quarter 4, a fall of 28%. The availability of industrial premise remained quite consistent across the year. At its peak during quarter 2 there were 48 properties available, but the 38 registered in the fourth quarter was only 12% lower than the quantity on offer during quarter 1 and 7% lower than quarter 3. Industrial property did however only account for an average 19% of the vacant supply. In terms of other premises tracked during the year (including retail, hospitality and other non-residential uses) there was a significant rise of 64% between quarter 1 and quarter 4 as the availability moved from 56 to 92. This is primarily accounted for by a rise in the number of retail units on offer. During quarter 1 of the 56 other premises registered 31 were for retail use, accounting for 55% of this figure. By quarter 4 this had risen to 61 out of 92 or 66%. Overall the number of retail premises on the market increased by close to 100% during the course of 2005.
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Figure 10: Premises Supply 2005
0
50
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150
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300
Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4Period
Ava
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AllPremises
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Industrial
Other
The majority of available supply across all classes was found in Bath, although this proportion was less significant for industrial than for other classes. In quarter 4 office premises in Bath accounted for 88% of the stock registered as vacant. The remainder was almost evenly spread across the other parts of Bath and North East Somerset, although Midsomer Norton and Radstock and rural Bath and North East Somerset both accounted for 8% whilst only 6% was found in Keynsham. There was a more even split in the vacant supply of industrial premises across Bath and North East Somerset. Whilst the highest concentration was again found in Bath this only accounted for 39%, with 18% in Midsomer Norton and Radstock, 16% in Keynsham and 26% in rural Bath and North East Somerset. Of the other premises registered the largest number was again located within Bath, accounting for 82%. This is due to the large concentration of retail premises in the area and the dominance of Bath in this market.
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Figure 11: Available Premises by Location Q4 2005
0 20 40 60 80 100
Available Supply
Office
Industrial
Other
Bath Norton Radstock Keynsham Rural Bath and North East Somerset
The available premises covered an array of sizes. The majority of these, however, fall into the ‘small workspace’ category. 80.3% of the units on the market during 2005 were 3,000sq/ft or below in size and 49.3% were of 1,000sq/ft or less. Some 75% of this vacant stock is located in Bath, with Midsomer Norton and Radstock accounting for 12%, Keynsham 11% and Rural Bath and North East Somerset 8%. Premises of 10,000sq/ft and over accounted for just 4% of the vacant stock. 39% of these were situated in Bath, 35% in Rural Bath and North East Somerset, 17% in Midsomer Norton and Radstock and 9% in Keynsham. The difference in unit size between office and industrial space is demonstrated as the office stock accounted for 44% of the available floor space and 44% of available units across 2005. Industrial floor space accounted for 39% of vacancies but only 19% of available units. There was also a similar, although reversed difference for other premises, which accounted for 17% of the vacant floor space across the year. In terms of the number of premises available this stood considerably higher at 37%. The majority of space is located in Bath, although this again varies depending upon the type of premises. For office 81% of the vacant floor space is found within the city. The only location outside of Bath to display a significant provision is Keynsham which accounted for 14%. Industrial space in Bath stood at 60%, with Midsomer Norton and Radstock offering the largest provision outside of the city with 26%. For ‘other’ floor space Bath accounted for a considerable 91%. The only significant supply outside of the city was found in rural Bath and North East Somerset and can be attributed to a more flexible provision of mixed-use of undesignated employment land.
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Figure 12: Q4 05/06 Available Floor Space
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
Floorspace (sq/ft) (thousand)
Office
Industrial
Other
Bath Midsomer Norton & RadstockKeynsham Rural Bath and North East Somerset
The current available supply of office and industrial floor space totals 445,812.5sq/ft. This accounts for 4.9% of the existing 9,166,193.5 sq/ft* of employment space in Bath & North East Somerset. The Business Location Requirements Study (Roger Tym & Partners 2003) proposed that to ensure healthy market activity one would expect to find between 7% and 10% of the overall supply available at any one point in time. Whilst this serves to suggest that the office market in Bath & North East Somerset is currently quite healthy, there is a noticeable shortage of industrial space. This is below the recommended level in Bath, currently at 6.3%, but is significantly lower in the Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Keynsham and rural areas. Overall the available industrial supply stands at 3.2% of the existing stock, less than half the recommended level.
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Table 2: Available Commercial Floor Space in Bath & North East Somerset Available Stock - Office
Bath and North East Somerset Bath
Midsomer Norton & Radstock Keynsham
Rural Bath & North East Somerset
Total Supply (m²) 2,617,698 2,113,838 117,000 226,913 159,946 Available Supply (m²) 235,802 190,837 7,780 33,660 3,525 Available supply (%) 9.01% 9.03% 6.65% 14.83% 2.20% Available Stock - Industrial
Bath and North East Somerset Bath
Midsomer Norton & Radstock Keynsham
Rural Bath and North
East Somerset
Total Supply (m²) 6,548,494 1,999,505 2,256,720 1,473,118 819,150 Available Supply (m²) 210,010 126,298 54,513 6,798 22,401 Available supply (%) 3.21% 6.32% 2.42% 0.46% 2.73%
* total employment space stock figures for 2003 obtained from ODPM and updated to 2005 total through Bath & North East Somerset Council Planning Policy Annual Monitoring Report.
Demand
Enquiries for commercial premises accounted for 77% of the information requests we received during 2005. The number of enquiries increased over the course of the year and in quarter 3 they reached their highest point since the first quarter of 2003. The number of enquiries received averaged 53 per quarter compared to 41 per quarter for the 2003/2004 period. Demand for industrial premises was generally higher than for office premises. This can be attributed to the comparative wealth of office premises available when considered against the ongoing decline of the industrial stock. The greatest demand was for ‘other’ premises, which overall accounted for 57% of the enquiries received in 2005. Over half (53%) of those looking for ‘other’ premises were specifically seeking retail units. The remainder of these enquiries included bars & restaurants along with nurseries & day centres and other D-class uses.
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Figure 13: Property Enquiries by Quarter 2005
0
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40
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60
70
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Period
Num
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of E
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All Office Industrial Other
The majority of enquirers were interested solely in premises within Bath. 53% of the enquiries we received specified the city as the sole Bath and North East Somerset location they would consider. A further 27% were looking for premises simply within Bath & North East Somerset although we can assume that a good proportion of these would be primarily interested in premises in or around the periphery of the city. Considering this, the demand for Bath can be estimated to be in excess of 70% of all enquiries for commercial premises in Bath & North East Somerset. Outside of the City only 15% of enquirers specified an alternative area of Bath & North East Somerset as their choice location. Of these 8% were seeking premises in Midsomer Norton and Radstock, 4% in rural Bath and North East Somerset and 3% in Keynsham.
Figure 14: Property Enquiries by Location 2005
27%
53%
3%8%
4% 5%
Bath and North East Somerset BathKeynsham Midsomer Norton and RadstockRural Other/ Unspecified
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Demand for retail premises accounted for an overall 29% of enquiries received during 2005, of these, 65% were looking for premises solely in Bath. Midsomer Norton and Radstock accounted for 13% of these enquiries whilst Keynsham and rural Bath and North East Somerset received only 6%. Industrial premises were found to have a similar level of demand to retail. Enquiries accounted for 27% received over the year although this demand displayed a greater parity across the Bath & North East Somerset area. 50% of these enquiries were looking generally across Bath and North East Somerset as opposed to specifying an individual location. Whilst 26% were seeking premises solely within Bath enquiries specifying Norton Radstock, Keynsham and rural Bath and North East Somerset accounted for a further 21%. Office premises received 18% of property enquiries in 2005. This was primarily sought within the city, accounting for 66%, and only 13% were looking for premises specifically in Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Keynsham or rural Bath and North East Somerset. Figure 15: Premises Type Demand by Location, 2005
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Demand
Office
Industrial
Retail
Hospitality
Other/Unspecif ied
Bath and North East Somerset Bath
Keynsham Midsomer Norton and Radstock
Rural Other/ Unspecified
In terms of size there was a clear demand across Bath & North East Somerset for small workspace. Of the enquiries 73% were for units of 5,000sq/ft and less, and 57% for those of 1,500sq/ft and less. The greatest demand across all size ranges was for units in Bath with the exception of those in the 5,001 and 10,000 sq/ft category. Of these enquiries only 25% were interested in Bath alone, with 50% looking for premises across the whole of Bath & North East Somerset. 22% of enquiries were recorded as ‘unspecified’ in terms of their spatial requirements. This is considered to be consistent with the significant number of retail enquiries received. Knowledge of requisite space and universal guidelines for unit size are less common in this market as opposed to office and industrial premises.
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Figure 16: Spatial Demand by Location, 2005
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Demand
0-500 sq/f t
501 -1000 sq/f t
1001 - 1500 sq/f t
1501 - 2000 sq/f t
2001 - 5000 sq/f t
5001 - 10000 sq/f t
Other/Unspecified
Bath and North East Somerset BathKeynsham Midsomer Norton and RadstockRural Other/ Unspecified
3. Labour Market
3.1. Economic Activity The economic activity rate of an area is based on data on the resident population and workforce and includes those in employment, self-employed and those looking for employment. This can provide the simplest indicator of the strength of labour demand in an area, however, this measure records residents who work in the area who may also commute, so jobs they fill may not be local. Economic activity rates across Bath and North East Somerset, the West of England, South West and England, at the time of the 2001 census, were all very similar at between 67% and 69%, with Bath and North East Somerset itself sitting at 68%. Of those people resident in Bath and North East Somerset who are economically active, 77% are employees (75% full time, 25% part time), 15% are self-employed, 3% are full time students in employment and 5% are currently unemployed. The Annual Business Inquiry tells us that of employee jobs available in Bath and North East Somerset 70% are full time and 25% are part time, implying some commuting into and out of the area.
3.2. Unemployment In December 2005 Bath and North East Somerset had a total claimant rate of 0.9%, of which the majority are found in Bath. Midsomer Norton and Radstock and the rural area have the lowest proportional claim rates. 0.2% of claimants have been claiming for over 6 months and 0.1% for over 12 months. All of these rates are highest in the City of Bath but lower than the West of England rate and less than half of the rate across all of Great Britain.
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Table 3: Claimant Count with Proportions, December 2005
Total claimants Claiming for over 6 months
Claiming for over 12 months Area
number rate number rate number rate
Great Britain 865,512 2.4 273,175 0.8 122,420 0.3 South West 43,326 1.4 10,760 0.4 4,480 0.1 West of England 8,922 1.2 2,345 0.3 870 0.3 Bath and North East Somerset 987 0.9 200 0.2 60 0.1
Bath 692 1.3 155 0.28 45 0.14 Midsomer Norton and Radstock 65 0.5 0 0.0 0 0.0
Keynsham 68 0.8 20 0.23 5 0.07 Rural Bath & North East Somerset 161 0.5 20 0.14 5 0.13
Source: Claimant Count
3.3. Employment Employment Change We can also look at the number of employee jobs available and how these figures have changed over time in Bath and North East Somerset as an indicator of the health of the local economy. This indicator, derived from data from employers, shows the number of jobs in the area, however it should be noted that these jobs might be filled by commuters coming into Bath and North East Somerset to work and not necessarily the local population.
Table 4: % Employment Change between 1996 and 2004
1991 - 1996 1996 - 2001 2001 - 2004 Great Britain 7% 9% 2% South West 9% 10% 4% West of England 10% 9% 6% Bath and North East Somerset 6% 2% 18% Bath 5% 1% 24%
Midsomer Norton & Radstock 6% -17% 6% Keynsham 4% 1% 9% Rural Bath & North East Somerset 17% 16% 0%
Source: Annual Employment Survey employee analysis, annual employment survey Re-scaled employee analysis, annual business inquiry employee analysis
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Although Bath and North East Somerset shows 18% growth from 2001 - 2004, it should be noted that this is accounted for by employment growth in defence activities. Fluctuations in this sector do not reflect an employment trend as the jobs are mobile and job levels regularly change. If this figure is omitted, growth in other sectors in Bath and North East Somerset between 2001 and 2004 was 4%. The trend for Bath mirrors this as defence jobs are based in the City of Bath. Between 1991 and 2004, Bath and North East Somerset shows a lower growth rate than that of Great Britain, the South West and the West of England. The greatest difference in growth levels against national, regional and sub-regional trends is seen between 1996 and 2001. Whilst growth was experienced at these levels at 9%, 10% and 9% respectively, Bath and North East Somerset showed a 2% growth rate. Whilst Bath and Keynsham only contributed 1% employment growth in each area, the 16% growth in the rural area was depressed by a 17% employment loss in Midsomer Norton and Radstock. This is mostly accounted for by the manufacturing and transport and communications sectors. Employment by Occupation Another measure of the quality and stability of jobs in the area is in the range of occupations available within the labour market. As this data is taken from the Census, it is representative of the occupations of those resident in Bath and North East Somerset but who may work outside the authority area. All occupations are well represented across residents of Bath and North East Somerset, however, there is a slight bias towards professional and skilled occupations. Bath and North East Somerset has a higher proportion of professional and associate professional and technical workers than the West of England and Great Britain with a slightly lower proportion of plant and machine operatives and elementary occupations. Within Bath and North East Somerset each area follows broadly the same patterns. Notable differences are the predominance of managerial and senior official positions in the rural area, of professional occupations in Bath and of administrative and secretarial occupations in Keynsham. Midsomer Norton and Radstock vary from the Bath and North East Somerset average the most, with a significantly lower proportion of professional occupations and technical occupations and significantly more skilled trade, plant and machine operative and elementary occupations.
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Figure 17: Range of employment by occupation, 2001
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Man
ager
san
d S
enio
rO
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Ele
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West of England Bath and North East Somerset Bath Midsomer Norton & Radstock Keynsham Rural Bath & North East Somerset
Source: Census 2001 Bath and North East Somerset has one of the highest proportions of workers in high level occupations at 45% (managers and senior officials, professional and associate professional and technical) out of the whole of the West of England which has an average proportion of 42%; the proportion in Bath is even higher than this at 50%. 4. Housing The West of England Sub-Regional Housing Study (DTZ) sets out background information on the housing market in Bath and North East Somerset and the West of England. Of the current housing stock in the West of England dwellings considered to be ‘unfit’ are concentrated in the City of Bristol and Bath and North East Somerset, the latter accounting for 25% of the figure. This is a reflection on the predominance of older, private sector housing. There has been a decline in the proportion of households owning or buying housing in Bath and North East Somerset resulting in an increase in private sector renting to account for 14% of household accommodation type. The profile of homeowners has altered in the period between 1991 and 2001 with both the West of England and Bath and North East Somerset experiencing a rise in those owning their homes outright (26% to 30% and 30 – 34% respectively) and a fall in those owning houses with a mortgage (47% - 42% and 43% - 38% respectively). This is considered to be a reflection on both an aging population of owner occupiers and an increase in the buy to let market (Census 1991 and 2001).
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Figure 18: Proportion of the population privately renting and owner occupying, 1991 and 2001
01020304050
Bath andNorth EastSomerset
WoE Bath andNorth EastSomerset
WoE Bath andNorth EastSomerset
WoE
Privately rented Owner Occupiedoutright
Owner Occupied withmortgage
% h
ouse
hold
s by
tenu
re
1991 2001
Source: Census 1991 and 2001 House prices in the West of England have risen more rapidly than those of the South West and Great Britain as a whole. This trend has been reflected particularly strongly in Bath due to the restrictions on housing expansion imposed by a shortage of land and the attraction of a high quality of life. Table 5: Average price of dwellings sold in Bath and North East Somerset (period Oct - Dec) 2000 2005 % Increase
Detached £221,926 £431,604 49% Semi-detached £126,440 £230,909 45% Terraced £128,592 £216,700 41% Flat £116,997 £176,911 34% Overall £146,045 £246,813 41%
During the period 2000 – 2005 the whole of England experienced sharp rises in the price of residential properties on the market. HM Land Registry records the average price of housing sold by three month period, thereby actually reflecting the price of housing on the market. Bath and North East Somerset experienced price rises of around 40%, varying by house price with detached houses recording the largest rise. These figures mask the sales price recorded by smaller areas within Bath and North East Somerset, which also showed increased popularity of different types of dwellings dependant on location. Bath recorded a 113% increase in overall property prices where as Keynsham experienced price rises from 28% to 155%, the largest rise being for flats and
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Midsomer Norton and Radstock experienced their greatest price rise of 125% in detached housing. Figure 19: Change in average house prices based on actual sales Oct - Dec
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Source: HM Land Registry Overall earnings in Bath and North East Somerset increased by 12% between 2002 and 2005 whereas the overall increase in house prices was 19% (Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and HM Land Registry). The increase in private rental sector is also being reflected in rising market rents with prices being highest in Bath and North East Somerset at £101 per week compared to the West of England average of £92 per week (ODPM / Land Registry). The increasing demand for housing in the West of England is not only driven by employment growth, in-migration is also driven by the presence in Bath of two expanding universities resulting in increasing student numbers, those attracted to Bath by its high quality of life as a retirement destination and those living in Bath but working in London or along the M4 corridor. This growth is expected to lead to a requirement for 45 – 50,000 new households in the West of England by 2016.
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5. Travel to Work Table 6: Commuter movements in Bath and North East Somerset
Lives and
Works in Area IN OUT NET
Total movements
(IN+OUT) Bath and North East Somerset 44,321 36,167 35,523 644 71,690
Bath 27,807 24,151 11,060 13,091 35,211 Keynsham and Saltford 3,276 3,944 5,681 -1,737 9,625 Midsomer Norton & Radstock 8,773 4,018 10,508 -6,490 14,526 Rural Bath and North East Somerset 4,465 4,054 8,274 -4,220 12,328
Source: Census 2001 Of the resident population in Bath and North East Somerset at the time of the 2001 Census, 44,321 worked within the authority area with an additional 36,167 people commuting in to the area and 35,523 commuting out. This results in a net migration of 644 people, however it also translates to 71,690 commuter journeys across the authority boundary. The table demonstrates that there will also be commuter movements within the authority area. Bath is the only area to import employees and at 72% has the greatest proportion of people who live and work in the same area, compared to Midsomer Norton and Radstock, Keynsham and the rural area at 46%, 37% and 35% respectively. Private transport (Motorcycle, scooter or moped, driving or passenger in a car or van and taxi or minicab) is the favoured choice of transport by a significant proportion in all distance travelled categories except ‘less than 2km’, however, private transport in this category follows ‘on foot’ as the second most popular choice of transport.
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Figure 20: Distance travelled to work by method of travel, 2001
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Less than 2km
2km to lessthan 5km
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Distance travelled to work
Underground, metro, light rail, tram Train Bus, minibus, coach Private Transport Bicycle On foot
Source: Census 2001 Within Bath and North East Somerset 10% of those in employment work from home, a marginally higher percentage than the national average and that of the West of England at 10% each. 6. Education and Skills The workforce of Bath and North East Somerset, as a whole, has a higher proportion of individuals with level 2, 3 and 4 qualifications than the West of England sub-region; however, the area also has a larger proportion of the workforce with no qualifications. As forecasts predict that the number of people with higher level qualifications is going to increase, there is growing concern over the possibility of those without higher level qualifications becoming increasingly marginalised and excluded from many jobs, as more employers demand more skills from applicants and employees.
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Figure 21: Level of qualifications, 2001 (% of people)
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5%
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35%
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Oth
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Bath
Midsomer Norton and Radstock
Keynsham
Rural
Bath and North East Somerset
West of England
England
Source: Census 2001 Across Bath and North East Somerset qualifications generally compare favourably to national averages. Bath notably has a resident workforce with a higher than average proportion of people with higher level qualifications and a lower proportion with no qualifications. Conversely, Midsomer Norton and Radstock suffer with a higher rate of people with no qualifications and a significantly lower than average proportion of people with level 4/5 qualifications. Level 4/5 qualification attainment in Bath and North East Somerset is highest amongst 25 – 29 year olds, whilst the chance of a resident having no qualifications at all rises with age. This highlights the need for education providers to not only develop and improve mainstream education, but also target the elements of the population who most need up-skilling. 7. Indices of Deprivation The indices of deprivation (see appendix 2) have been developed by the ODPM to move away from using census data to provide indicators and exploit new sources of information, such as administrative data and schools data. These single indicators of deprivation are then accumulated to a single index of multiple deprivation (IMD) where areas are then ranked according to the position of their score in the national picture. Using these indices of deprivation can ensure that data resources are as up to date as possible at small area level. The indices of deprivation can be used to identify pockets of deprivation within an area effectively and also to pinpoint the cause of this deprivation. Bath and North East Somerset generally features in the least deprived wards in England under the Indices of Multiple Deprivation, however, this measure can help identify areas which are not as affluent as others and the cause of this deprivation. It can be seen that parts of each of the urban areas fall into the top 50% least deprived wards in the country, with Bath particularly suffering around Twerton West and Whiteway where they sit in the top 20% most deprived in the country.
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Relatively high income deprivation has been identified in Bath, in some wards of Midsomer Norton and Radstock and in the rural areas of Timsbury and Peasedown-St-John. The whole of Bath and North East Somerset particularly suffers under the index of crime deprivation, more so in Bath and, surprisingly, in some of the rural wards. All wards in Midsomer Norton and Radstock, however, feature in the top 50% least deprived in the country. Finally, when measuring barriers to services and housing rural areas have a naturally high level of deprivation as it is based on distance to services, hence areas in Bath and North East Somerset feature heavily in the most deprived rankings due to their rurality. 8. Conclusions
8.1. Challenges Bath and North East Somerset is a diverse area covering both urban and rural communities, all of which have a distinct identity and their own opportunities and challenges.
- Regional Spatial Strategy The Regional Spatial Strategy prepared by the Regional Assembly sets out the need to accommodate employment and housing growth looking forward to 2026. The South West region, West of England Sub-region and Bath and North East Somerset have each been set a challenge to fulfil development requirements. Specifically, growth in Bath and North East Somerset has been predicted at 16,500 new dwellings and 16,000 – 20,000 new jobs, most of which will be located in Bath
- Competitiveness Cities, towns and areas are changing their approach to marketing and providing a more proactive resident, visitor and business offer. Bath and North East Somerset has to increase its competitiveness on all these fronts, particularly maintaining its reputation as an international visitor destination. The diversity of Bath and North East Somerset means that each area performs a different role and therefore requires each area to identify its particular threats and then build on its strengths. For example, Bath is a popular retail destination but locally Bristol and Swindon are increasing and diversifying their retail offer. Equally, people are increasingly prepared and able to travel and therefore competition comes from more distant centres such as Birmingham.
- Sustainability The twenty-first century presents the world population with its greatest challenge, to achieve sustainable living. It is recognised that at current rate of energy consumption emissions are having a negative and potentially irreversible impact on the planet, Bath and North East Somerset must therefore not only support efforts to develop a low carbon economy but also to lead in finding solutions to maintaining current quality of life whilst accommodating economic growth in a sustainable way.
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- Transport
Bath and North East Somerset is the only unitary authority in the West of England without a direct link to the motorway network. Bath suffers particularly from the sub-region’s poor internal transport links, including no direct public transport link to Bristol International Airport. It is recognised that there are difficulties with traffic congestion and parking issues for businesses in Bath and the link road south to Midsomer Norton and Radstock struggles to cope with current levels of commuter traffic.
- Labour market Due to low unemployment current availability of labour in Bath and North East Somerset is low. This is likely to be exacerbated by an aging population, again reducing numbers in the workforce. Additionally, it is recognised that there are low skill levels in the south of the area which need to be addressed by targeting re-skilling to areas of need. The quality of available labour is a key driver in attracting employers to the area, therefore a poor labour market offer will have knock on effects such as low business investment in the area.
- Industrial restructuring in Midsomer Norton and Radstock The recent closure of the Polestar operation in Paulton and subsequent loss of 420 jobs is a difficult reminder of the threat to the industrial base of printing and packaging manufacturing in Midsomer Norton and Radstock. Challenges to the area lie in supporting existing businesses and employees, re-training the workforce, diversifying the economic base and ensuring that land is retained for appropriate employment uses.
8.2. Opportunities
- Major developments The lack of available land and premises for employment use is a major block to attracting new investment into the area. Bath and North East Somerset currently has a number of development opportunities across the area. Bath is about to undergo a redevelopment of the Southgate shopping centre to increase retail floor space, provide a supply of larger retail premises and improve the public realm. The redevelopment of Western Riverside is currently being planned to contribute to the housing growth predicted for the area but also to provide jobs to support that housing growth. Various other development opportunities have also been identified in Bath to improve the resident, visitor and business offer. The Norton Radstock Regeneration Company (NRR) owns 18 acres (7.3ha) of derelict railway land in the centre of Radstock. NRR has developed a master plan that seeks to ensure development acts as a catalyst for wider regeneration. The master plan makes provision for; housing which has a mixture of tenure and size and is of high quality, limited new retail space in order to build and strengthen the existing, new opportunities for enterprise and workspace, improving movement and linkages around the site and between the towns for pedestrians and cyclists, workshops and gallery space for arts and craft industries, improving the delivery of community services and providing opportunities for
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cultural expressions within a new Community Resource building, making effective use of existing environmental assets and provision of new public spaces. Development land has also been identified in Keynsham and talks are currently being undertaken to assess the role Bath Spa University could play in the town if it chooses to expand its operations to a base there.
- Diversifying the Economy Whilst most employment sectors are represented in Bath and North East Somerset some areas are heavily dependant on a single sector. Much of the employment in Bath is in Retail and Tourism, two sectors which are interdependent on each other and in Midsomer Norton and Radstock printing and packaging is a key sector with employment focused on a small number of large businesses. To diversify and grow in a sustainable way, Bath and North East Somerset needs to develop other sectors, for example; its knowledge economy – its base of businesses which have grown around intellectual property. Due to the advancement of globalisation and therefore industrial sector change in the UK, today’s economic growth sectors in the developed world are ‘footloose’ and challenge cities to attract them. It is widely recognised that to attract clusters of these industries to an area will improve the area’s competitiveness and therefore prospects. Economic prosperity in Bath and North East Somerset needs to build on and brand its strengths, allowing the city to offer something unique, and therefore attractive, to new business.
- Knowledge Transfer and Business Incubation Bath has two Universities; the University of Bath and Bath Spa University, which both work closely with the University of Bristol and the University of the West of England. Having two local universities is an enormous asset which can support the growth of Bath and North East Somerset in a number of ways, particularly by optimising on the growth of intellectual capital through the universities and transferring this knowledge to local business. The Universities are currently working on a joint proposal with other higher education institutes in the West of England for a Science Park based at Emersons Green. Appendix 1: Map of Bath and North East Somerset Appendix 2: Indices of Deprivation maps