battery market development: materials requirements and ... market development... · iit 2007 iit...

Battery Market Development:

Materials Requirements and

Trends 2012-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

AABC EUROPE 2013

June, 24-28

Strasbourg, FRANCE

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


[email protected]

Battery Market

Development: Materials

Requirements and Trends

2012-2025

AABC EUROPE June 24-28

Strasbourg, FRANCE

AGENDA

The battery market in 2012 by technology, applications & battery suppliers

Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market

Supplier / customer relationship

Raw material cost

New entrants strategy

Raw material road map 2012-2030

Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025

2


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2012

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

3

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2010

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

4

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

1990 2000 2010

MW

h


1990-2012



5


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE


1990-2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

50 BILLION US$ in 2012

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

PORTABLE

SLI


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid


1990-2012



7

Lead Acid Batteries

330 GWh for US $ 30 Billion

64%

33% 3%

SLI

Industrial

E-bikes

24%

22%

12%

40% 2%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary

Forklift

Othermotive

Industrial Batteries

54 GWh for US $ 10 Billion


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2012

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

MW

h

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,

MWh, 1995-2012

2002-2012 (CAGR)

NiCd: -2% per year

NiMH: + 4% per year

Li-ion: +25% per year

8


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2012

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

M$

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,

1995-2012

Note: Cell level

2002-2012 (CAGR)

NiCd: -6% per year

NiMH: + 7% per year

Li-ion: +14% per year

9


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN

MARKET SHARE

Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market

in 2001 to less than 45% in 2012

10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%1

99

4

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Rechargeable battery market by country

Japan

Korea

China

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

LIB market by country

Japan

Korea

China


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2012

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh

10 500 M$

CAGR 2002/2012

+25 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

11

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M

$

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION IN 2012

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

12

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M

Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh

10 500 M$

CAGR 2002/2012

+25 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

13

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING

DRASTICALLY

In 10 Years 80% price decreasing

despite a fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

Source: UMICORE, march 2011

18650 oversupply ratio is

increasing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

M c

ells

/Y

ear

Supply Demand Oversupply ratio

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

M c

ells

/m

on

th

BAK

ATL

Lishen

E-One

LG

SDI

MAXELL

SONY

PANASONIC

SANYO

Production capacity 2009/2011:

from 150 to 250 M cells/month

Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST

IS RAW MATERIALS

RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS

RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

14

Lithium ion cell average cost Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pro

du

ctio

n c

ost

LIB Cost structure for Japanese,

Chinese & Korean makers in 2012

Operatingprofit

Depreciation

SGA

R&D

Labor

Material

Cathode cost 21%

Anode cost 7%

Electrolyte 5%

Separator 8% Other

materials 13%

Depreciation 13%

Direct labor 6%

Energy, utilities

3%

R&D 6%

Sales & Adm 6%

Overheads 6% Margin

6%


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN

15

CATHODE SUPPLIERS

75 OOO T in 2012

Revenues: 1,85 B$

CAGR 02/12: +16%

ANODE SUPPLIERS

38 000 T in 2012

Revenues: 0,6 B$

CAGR 02/12: 14%

ELECTROLYTE

SUPPLIERS

29 000 T in 2012

Revenues: 0,46 B$

CAGR 02/12: 20%

SEPARATOR

SUPPLIERS

490 M m² in 2012

Revenues: 0,9 B$

CAGR 02/12: 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

> 11 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,5 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

> 14 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER SUPPLIERS

5 600 Tons in 2012

Revenues: 0,16 B$

CAGR 02/12: 16%

For each component: • Market in volume & value? • Material used by apploication? • Main suppliers / new comers? • Material cost? • Major trends? • Technology roadmap


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

BY CHEMISTRY

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2012

16

(…)

LEADERS:

Nichia 23%

Umicore 21%

Others 8%

Internal 4%

B&M 17%

Easpring 10%

Reshine 10%

Other China

7%

LCO – 29 KT (2012) NMC1 – 27 KT (2012)

Nichia 23%

Umicore 27%

Others 19%

Internal 5%

L&F 11%

Other China 15%

LMO – 13 KT (2012) LFP – 5 KT (2012)

Nichia 8% Other

Japan 16%

Internal 6%

Nikki 18%

Qyanyun 15%

Other China 37%

Tatung 12%

Aleees 18%

Other Japan

5%

Internal 6%

Clariant 5%

A123 10%

Formosa 8%

Valence 6%

Others 30%

1- Including NCA


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials 2000-

2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2012: 75 000 Tons

17

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume

HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB

EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

LCO 39%

NMC 30%

NCA 5%

LMO 18%

LFP 8%

Cathode active materials in

2025: > 330 000 Tons

LCO 24%

NMC 37% NCA

7%

LMO 11%

LFP 21%


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

18

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

38 000 TONS IN 2012

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2011

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Meso-Phase

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012

0% 50% 100%

SANYO

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Others

ARTIFICIAL

MCMB

NATURAL

Amorphous

METAL

19

Natural graphite become a commodity

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Natural Graphite

61%

Artificial Graphite

28%

MCMB 6%

Amorphous 3%

Si or Sn Type 1%

LTO 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon

Soft Carbon

Graphite

Capacity (/g)

400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2012->2020

30 -> 25 $/kg

25->20 $/kg

15 -> 10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA

HITACHI HITACHI BTR

& many others


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012

LIB separator market, M$,

CAGR 2002/2012: +18%

LIB Separator supplier, market

share in 2012

20

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

20

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01

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02

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03

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04

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06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

M$

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)


ASAHI 26%

TORAY 23%

SUMITOMO 1%

ENTEK 3%

SK 13%

CELGARD 19%

UBE 7%

Others 8%


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

29 000 TONS IN 2012

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2002/2012: +20%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2012

21

Ube 9%

Mitsubishi 21%

In-House 3%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 16%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-

Huarong 15%

Jinniu 10%

Capchem 9%

Shanshan 9%

Others 5%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ton

s

Cellular Portable PC Tablets

Power tools E-Bikes Auto

Others


Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012

Electrolyte Battery makers &

suppliers relation in 2012

Electrolyte maker sales

2005-2012

22

Ube

Mitsubishi

In-House

Tomiyama

PANAX-ETEC1

ZGH

Jinniu

Capchem Shanshan

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ton

s

Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel

0 2000 4000 6000

UBE

Mitsubishi Chem

In-house

Tomiyama

PANAX-ETEC

ZGH

Mitsui

BASF

Jinniu

Cap Chem

ShanShan

Tons

Panasonic SDI LG Chem BYD

Lishen Maxell ATL BAK

A123 NEC YUASA (LEJ) TOSHIBA

Others


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).

So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

23


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION RAW MATERIALS ROADMAP

24

Source: Kai-Christian Möller , Fraunhofer – 2013, AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

25

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2012-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2012-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2012-2025

Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

26

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2012-2025

0

100

200

300

400

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2010-2025 CAGR: +4%

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

2025 LIB FORECASTS

EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

12

20

15

20

20

20

25

MW

h

Others

E-bikes

Household devices

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Power Tools

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

LIB market, MWh, by application (except

Auto) - CARG 2012-2025: 12%

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form

factor (Except Auto)

27

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr

Li-P IIT - March 2012 (1)

(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference – Slide p 10


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

HEV FORECASTS

2012-2025

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

HEV

pen

etra

tio

n (

% o

f to

tal c

ar s

ales

)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020

28

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

29

LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR

HEV, P-HEV & EV

Recall slash battery profit

LIB >>> NiMH but

SAFETY & COST ISSUES

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion

Volts 201.6 201.6

Cells 168 (28*6) 56

Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah

Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh

Weight 38 kg 25 kg

T°C Range + +

Cyclability + ++

Safety

Cost

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

SAFETY ISSUES

30

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Bac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced

safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode

(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result

of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)

(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US with a Panasonic battery using NMC, NCA cathodes

Air

cra

ft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

31

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE

VALUE CHAIN

32

The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components

Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected

Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)

Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful

Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM

On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate

1

2

3

5

4

6

Comments


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

33

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500

PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

SonyBYD

LG ChemJCI

A123SanyoEner1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASASB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)

ToshibaBlue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

BAKSAFT US

SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

34 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV battery

cell Packaging material

LV batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &

Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL

for EV

0 €

2 000 €

4 000 €

6 000 €

8 000 €

10 000 €

12 000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

35 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

BOLLORE BLUE CAR


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2011-2020

LIB cell average cost

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

36

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

2015* 2020* 2011* 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode cost

Cathode cost 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

OtherMaterials

Electrolyte

Separator

Anode

Cathode


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

EV FORECASTS

2011-2020

EV sold, in million units,

worldwide, 2010 - 2020

EV impact on the LIB & raw

material market is HUGE

37

IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale

IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale

Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009

Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes

AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

IIT (March 2010)

AAB

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

AVICENNE

IIT (March 2011)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Power Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2012-2025: +20%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2012-2025: +12%

38

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV


[email protected]

Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

2000 – 2025

Rechargeable battery market,

M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)

Rechargeable battery market,

M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

39

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Micro-hybrid batteries

40

Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)

Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

41

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

TAKEAWAYS

42

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +8%

Note: Excluding Energy Storage batteries

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)

NiMH (-4%) LIB (+6%)

LIB for xEV (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025)

25 B$

49 B$

60 B$

78 B$

92 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

2,3

15

11

23

52

32


[email protected]

Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

43

About

AVICENNE ENERGY


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy

with in-depth research

The Rechargeable Battery market

21st Edition

Customized

survey

45


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

OUR BUSINESS STORY

1992 •AVICENNE Creation

1994

•AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities

•AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN

1999 •« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris

2003

•AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL

2008 •AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict

2009

•AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – China

2010

•Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020

2011

•AVICENNE Energy division is created •13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress

2013 •22nd Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2012-2025 • 15th Edition of BATTERIES CONGRESS

46


[email protected]

Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

OUR METHODOLOGY

MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Primary Research Secondary Research

Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

Case Studies Reference Customers

Qualitative Quantitative Strategic

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

Track valuable Information's

Strategic Analysis

Presentation of the results

Q&A with customers

Customer Evaluation

INFORMATION COLLECTION

SUP

PLY

SI

DE

DEM

AN

D

SID

E

47


[email protected]

Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO

RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

In Depth analysis Of applications

Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

BMS

Electronics

Substitution technologies

Conferences & Exhibitions

Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts

48


[email protected]

Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY

FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

Source : Photo from BASF

Raw Materials

BMS & Electronics

Cooling Systems

Power Electronics

Batteries

49


[email protected]

Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES

WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ARKEMA ASHLAND ATOFINA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA

DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI

ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT

RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

50


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP

MODERATOR

BATTERIES 2012, FRANCE – (1999-2012) Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2010-2025”

INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2011, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2010-2020”

AABC Europe, Mainz (2012) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020”

THE 28th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2012 “HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2010)

EVER 2009, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe”

EVS 20011, “Battery market for automotive industry”

CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide”

Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009-2010 Chairman & speaker, “The battery business 2009-2020”

EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) “The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges”

China Industry Battery Fair 2006 “The Chinese battery Industry”

…

Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year

51

https://powersources.net/florida/28th.html


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

BATTERIES 2013

OCTOBER 14TH-16TH

3 days congress in France (Nice)

15th Edition (first edition in 1999)

500 attendees

40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,

80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

www.batteriesevent.com

52


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Battery Market



2012-2025


Strasbourg, FRANCE

SUMMARY

A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years

Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, …

Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups

Knowledge

Methodology

Expert Network

Flexibility

We will help and support your growth

53

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