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Electric Auto Association http://www.eaaev.org/History/index.html

BATTERY POWERED VEHICLES: DON’T RULE THEM OUT

Jerry Mader, Deputy Director1 Transportation Energy Center (TEC)

University of Michigan November 16, 2006

ELECTRIC VEHICLE HISTORY: A TALE OF FALSE STARTS Electric vehicles (EV) are powered exclusively by a battery that is recharged from the electric utility grid. In every decade or so, like in today’s energy climate where gasoline prices have risen dramatically, policymakers and the public become aroused by the prospect of battery-powered vehicles. Although EVs sound like an unusual concept in today’s internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle world, EVs have been around for about 170 years. The first EV was invented way back in the 1830s and, when battery storage improved later in the 19th Century, EVs began to flourish. In fact, in the early part of the 20th Century, EVs outsold ICE vehicles because they were easier to start, quieter and not as smelly as gasoline cars. But, as roads improved and, with the discovery of crude oil in Texas, the gasoline cars took over. Later in the last century, the U.S. petroleum crisis of the 1970s was an event that spurred interest in the development of EVs. In 1976, Congress passed Public Law 94-413 that mandated the introduction of 10,000 EVs on U.S. roads in five years. However, U.S. policymakers’ enthusiasm for EVs soon dissipated and petroleum substitution strategies were supplanted by policies to support OPEC2 countries that would keep oil flow to the United States. The 1990s brought yet another policy initiative that focused considerable attention on market introduction of EVs. In September 1990, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) enacted the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate that required manufacturers to sell 2% EVs in 1998, ramping up to 10% in 2003. The ZEV Mandate was very unpopular with automotive manufacturers, especially General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. These companies complained that a government should not mandate a vehicle technology, but that its acceptance should be based on market forces. Eventually, General Motors sued the state of California over this issue and, as a result, the ZEV Mandate was modified to incorporate other vehicle technologies that could reduce emissions, such as hybrid electrics and hydrogen-powered cars. Although the California ZEV Mandate failed to create a sustainable EV market, it did have a dramatic impact on accelerating the development of battery and fuel cell technology. Today, as we are entering the 21st Century, the battery-powered vehicle still holds the promise for future widespread use. And, our battery-powered future should be driven more on the technical progress in battery storage and less on the wishful thinking of government policymakers. IT’S THE BATTERY STUPID In our current world where laptop computers and cell phones are commonplace, several articles found on Google use the title, “It’s the battery stupid” However, this phrase was first used a decade ago when referring to difficulties in introducing EVs

1 This paper is the third in a series of white papers written by Mr. Mader for policymakers and media representatives who are interested in energy related topics. His other papers are: “Michigan’s Energy Future: It’s too soon to panic,” December 2005, and The U.S. Petroleum Addiction: Is it Hopeless?,” May 2006. This paper, as well as the two others are available electronically at: www.engin.umich.edu/research/tec 2 Currently, OPEC is comprised of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela

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into the marketplace. Although a somewhat crass way of putting it, the key problem in EV development has always been the performance, life and cost of available battery technology. Way back in the late 1970s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded programs that explored a variety of battery options, including lead-acid (Pb-acid), nickle-Iron (NiFe), sodium-sulfur (NaS), silver-zinc (AgZn), Nickel zinc (NiZn), zinc bromide (ZnBr), nickel-cadmium (NiCd), and zinc-air (ZnAir). But, as the 20th Century came to a close, only the Pb-acid battery had survived as a bonafide cost- competitive option for EV propulsion. Nevertheless, during the 1990s, nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries began to receive considerable attention from battery developers that viewed the EV market in California as a viable entry point. Criteria for Battery Development Success Battery Life Batteries are a very challenging technology to perfect. During the charging phase, they store electrons and, during the discharge phase, they release electrons. This charge/discharge cycle must be repeated many hundreds of times during the life of a battery without any appreciable loss in battery function or capacity. In fact, batteries must last up to 1,000 cycles to be effective for powering vehicles. In addition to cycle life, a battery must be durable enough to last the life of the vehicle, which is usually estimated to be about 15 years. Battery life is a very important success criterion because it has a significant impact on vehicle economics. Battery Energy Another important attribute is energy or specific energy measured in watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg). The specific energy of a battery translates into the range or miles that a given vehicle can travel. The higher the specific energy of the battery, the greater the range of the vehicle. Battery Power Battery power, or specific power, measured in watts per kilograms (W/kg) is another battery characteristic. Specific power is a measure of the acceleration performance that the battery will deliver.

Is the Electric Car Dead? On June 28, 2006, a documentary film directed by Chris Paine was released entitled, “Who Killed the Electric Car?” This film is in the genre of a murder mystery where the “bad guys” are the automotive industry (especially General Motors), the oil industry, weak consumers and, of course, the federal government. The story is told around an electric car, the EV1, which was introduced in California by General Motors in 1996 to fulfill the CARB ZEV Mandate. Some prominent members of the entertainment industry, such as Phyllis Diller, Tom Hanks and Martin Sheen, as well as a number of California’s most vocal advocates for EVs have cameo appearances in the movie. One quote from the movie pretty much sums up its major theme, “The murder was committed by the General Motors Company,” S. David Freeman, former energy advisor to Jimmy Carter. In fact, Mr. Freeman has held several executive positions in California’s government agencies over the past 20 years. This author has also had over 20 years experience in California, directly involved in the development and commercialization of EV technologies. I have had personal experiences working with many California agencies and I have come in contact with many of the technical experts shown in this film. In my opinion, the obvious purpose of this film was to embarrass the automotive industry and to castigate General Motors. Unfortunately, this is quite a common motive of California policymakers and politicians. But, the true underlying causes for this unsuccessful venture can be summarized as follows: The EV1s two-passenger sports car design could only

satisfy a very small market segment. Small volume production is a very costly proposition for a

large automotive company(a total of 1,100 were manufactured over four years).

EV1s were leased at a loss to General Motors of about 100% of the lease cost.

CARB rescinded the ZEV Mandate in 2003, which canceled the regulatory benefits to the manufacturer.

During the late 1990s, when EV1s were manufactured, battery technology was too immature. The EV1s reliable range was less than 100 miles.

The actual battery cost was over $8,000 per car. Although the film, “Who Killed the Electrical Car?” attempts to make a dramatic statement about the failure of the EV1, electrics are certainly not dead. As battery technology improves, as manufacturers better understand the unique attributes of EVs and as EV attributes are more closely aligned with market needs, the EV will take it proper place as an important contributor to energy efficiency and pollution reduction.

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Obviously, good acceleration is an important attribute for vehicle driveability. Electrics exhibit excellent acceleration because electric motors deliver high torque in an instant. Battery Cost Batteries are made from various metals, such as lithium, nickel, lead, zinc, et al., and manufacturing complexity varies depending upon the particular battery type. Consequently, the cost of a system can be quite variable. For comparison purposes, battery cost is measured in terms of dollars per kilowatt hour ($/kWh). A battery’s cost and its life will determine its economic feasibility. Battery Comparison

Battery Comparison Chart3 Pb-acid NIMH Li-Ion Specific energy (wh/kg)

30-35 70 150

Specific power (w/kg) 300 200 400 Cost ($/KWh) 80 265 275

The chart above compares the energy, power and cost of Pb-acid, NiMH and Li-Ion batteries. In comparing energy, the chart shows that there is a doubling of energy for NIMH compared to Pb-acid and a doubling again for Li-Ion. This means that for a given vehicle, the Li-Ion powered car will go about twice as far as the NiMH car and more than four times as far as the Pb-acid car. Although the power of these batteries are somewhat comparable, the cost of Pb-acid is significantly lower, about 30%, than the other two systems. But in this case, the cost is misleading because the Pb-acid battery has about 30% of the life of the other systems, so the total battery cost is equivalent because three Pb-acid batteries will be needed during the life of the vehicle. And it is this cost issue that has significantly contributed to the infeasibility of the electric car. For example, for the Li-Ion batteries, an EV, like the

3 Extracted data found in “Advanced-Batteries for Electric Vehicles: An Assessment of Performance, Cost and Availability,” Kalhammer, et al., 2000, California Air Resources Board

General Motors EV1, requires about 30 kWh of capacity to provide a range of 150 to 250 miles. Therefore, the battery cost is over $8,200 (30 x $275), which is impossible to recoup at even $3 per gallon gasoline prices. Electric cars have limited range and higher cost than gasoline cars and are expected to have these disadvantages for the foreseeable future. A SCENARIO FOR BATTERY POWER SUCCESS A battery is inherently a range limited power source. For example, a gallon of gas has about 65 times the energy as an equivalent volume NiMH battery. Another way of viewing this is that a typical battery pack is equal to one gallon of gasoline on an energy content basis. This is a key reason why consumers will have a difficult time accepting the all-battery-powered electric car. The range limitation stifles the flexibility to which car drivers are accustomed. Why even bother using battery power to propel a vehicle? The simple answer lies in finding applications suitable for a battery’s attributes while minimizing the range limitation issue. Inner City Fleet Vehicles There are literally hundreds of thousands of vehicles that travel less than 60 miles per day on fixed routes in cities all across the country. These vehicles are well suited for all battery power because they have to endure frequent stops, return each night to a central location and are used in high pollution areas. These fleet vehicles, both buses and vans, are ideally suited for electrification because frequent stops assist battery range4. Since the vehicles return to a central

4 All battery-powered vehicles use electric motor drives and the electric motor can assist in braking when the motor is reversed. This function, called regenerative braking, takes energy from the wheels and puts it back into the battery. Regenerative braking can add from 10-20% back into the battery, thereby, increasing the range accordingly.

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location, their batteries can be recharged at night at significantly reduce electricity rate for off-peak charging. Also, because fleet vehicles are used in urban areas, each of their miles significantly impacts pollution, so electrification has the more positive affect on pollution reduction than for suburban travel. Hybrid Electric Vehicles The most appropriate application for battery power in passenger vehicles is the hybrid electric. Hybrid electrics use a combination of a combustion engine and battery drive. Battery power is primarily used in stop-and-go city driving and the combustion engine is used more for highway driving. The batteries are usually recharged by the gasoline engines, except for the plug-in hybrids, which are recharged by the utility grid. By far the most successful hybrid electric is offered by Toyota. In 2006, about 300,000 hybrids were sold worldwide and Toyota accounted for 75% of them. This year, Toyota will sell about 110,000 Prius hybrids in the United States alone. The United States will account for more than half of the 1 million hybrid cars and light trucks Toyota plans to sell worldwide each year by early next decade. Hybrid electrics make more sense as a powertrain option for passenger cars than all-electric drive vehicles for the following reasons: 1. A smaller battery (about a third the size) is

required for hybrid, thus, reducing the battery cost from about $8,000 to $3,000.

2. The gasoline engine in combination with electric drive provide virtually unlimited range and driving flexibility.

3. Hybrid batteries last longer because hybrids don’t rely exclusively on battery power. The battery can be used in its optimal regime, eliminating deep discharges and extending life.

Most pundits predict a very rosy future for hybrids. Both Toyota and Honda are bringing out multiple hybrid car models, and Ford, General Motors and Toyota are offering several hybrid SUVs in 2007.

These vehicles still have a price premium of up to $4,000 when compared with a comparable gasoline vehicle but this difference should diminish as manufacturing volume increases. 5

5 Nitric oxide and reactive organic gas

The Plug-in Hybrid Solution The plug-in hybrid is a hybrid electric with a larger battery that is recharged from the electric utility grid rather than from the combustion engine on board the vehicle. Plug-in hybrids can provide from 20-60 miles, depending on the size of battery, of electric drive range. At average utility rates, these miles can be driven at an equivalent cost of about 75 cents per gallon. Plug-ins offer utility companies a sustainable market for off peak electricity and consumers a clean low-cost transportation option. The plug-in hybrid initiative is being lead by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), an electric utility industry collaborative research organization located in Palo Alto, California. It is the brainchild of Dr. Fritz Kalhammer, who established the effort in 1999 but he initiated electric vehicle research at EPRI way back in 1976. Dr. Kalhammer has been a well-respected leader in battery research for over 30 years. EPRI is collaborating with DiamlerChrysler AG of Stuttgart, Germany, to build Dodge plug-in hybrid Sprinter vans. The program is co-sponsored by several California government agencies, a California utility and the U.S. Department of Transportation. Four Sprinter vans are being tested in cities across the United States and there are future plans for 30 to 100 vehicle demonstrations. EPRI states the benefits of these plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) as follows: Compares to best in class HEV today a PHEV 20-

40 delivers: o 35-50% reduction in NOx and ROG5 o 45-65% reduction in petroleum o 30-45% reduction in greenhouse gas

Flex-fuel PHEVs: o An ethanol PHEVs approach petroleum-free

“zero-carbon” o Beneficial “pairing” plug-in for local urban miles,

ethanol as the fuel to extend range

GM EV11

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A PROMISING BATTERY FUTURE The battery power vehicle future looks very bright, both for hybrid electrics and all battery-powered EVs. Battery technology has continued to improve since the first transportation energy crisis in the 1970s. From this period and into the 1990s, batteries have received a lot of attention from government agencies and technology developers worldwide. The advent of cellular phone and laptop computers has had a dramatic impact on battery use, both here and abroad. Although these smaller devices aren’t exactly scalable for large EV or hybrid battery systems6 they have created a huge market for Li-Ion batteries. Attempts have been made to directly scale up small consumer electronic-type cells for EV use but these systems are fraught with problems because lithium cells can generate heat and even catch on fire. Nevertheless, the success of battery use in the consumer electronics field provides developers with capital for the development of these systems for EVs. As government regulators and other policymakers understand the true value of the battery powered EV, more and more initiatives will focus on the urban fleet vehicle where the disadvantage of limited range is overcome by centralized fleet applications, where vehicles are returned to the same location each night. Finally, battery power has found a “beachhead” in the hybrids. These models will continue to be attractive as consumers face relatively expensive gasoline prices for the foreseeable future. As more battery powered vehicles are sold, battery manufacturing volumes will increase, allowing for further cost reductions and performance improvements. Rest assured that batteries will be an important contributor to our transportation energy future.

6 Batteries used in consumer electronic devices, like laptops, typically use lithium battery cells rated at about 2.0 amp-hours or 8.4 watt-hours (Whr) and the battery pack delivers about 60 Whrs of energy. An EV requires about 30KWhr or about 500 times the energy. One EV developer in California, AC Propulsion, uses 7,000 Li-Ion cells to propel its EV.

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REFERENCES Anderman, Menahem, Fritz kalhammer, et al., “Advanced Batteries for Electric Vehicles: An Assessment of Performance, Cost and Availability,” June 22, 2000. Duvall, Mark, “Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vvehicles, The Seattle Electric Vehicle to Grid (V2G) Forum, June 6, 2005.. Mader, Jerry and Rick Gerth, “The Advanced Power Technology Dilemma: From Hydrocarbons to Hydrogen,” Center for Automotive Research, March 2004. Mader, Jerry, “The U.S. Petroleum Addition: Is it Hopeless?,” University of Michigan, May 2006. “Plugging into the Future,” The Economist, June 10, 2006. Sanna, Lucy, “Driving the Solution: The Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle,” EPRI Journal, Fall 2005, pp8-17. Scherson, Daniel A. and Attila Palencsar, “Batteries and Electrochemical Capacitors”, Interface, Spring 2006, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp 17-22. Smith, Douglas L., “Plug In,, Charge Up, Drive Off,” Engineering & Science No. 2, 2006, pp16-24. Takeda, Nobuaki, Sadao Imai, et al., “Development of High-Performance Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Electric Vehicles,” New Technologies, Technical Review 2003. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_electric_vehicle, Battery Electric Vehicle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_vehicle, Hybrid Vehicle History www.fueleconomy.gov, Compare Side-by-Side Hybrid Cars

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About the Author Jerry Mader is Energy Research Director and Deputy Director of the Transportation Energy Center at the University of Michigan. Mr. Mader received his baccalaureate degree in Industrial Engineering in 1966 and his masters in Operations Research in Industrial Engineering 1967. As an undergraduate, he won three varsity football letters and was a member of the 1965 Rose Bowl Championship team.

Mr. Mader pioneered the application of management information systems and management by objectives systems and founded Applied Science, Inc., in Ann Arbor in 1972. In 1977, he joined the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Palo Alto, California, where he helped establish energy research in the field of advanced electric transportation technology, becoming ERPI’s first program manager for electric transportation in 1980. In 1985, Mr. Mader created the Electric Vehicle Development Corporation (EVDC) as a subsidiary of EPRI and was its Chief Operating and Chief Financial Officer until 1992. EVDC pioneered the commercial introduction of all-electric powered vans built on the General Motors assembly line. Mr. Mader has knowledge and expertise in the development of advanced battery technology for vehicle applications. He was the Executive Director of the Advanced Battery Task Force advising the California Air Resources Board (CARB) on battery status in the mid-1990s. In the late 1990s, he worked as Vice President for Program Development for Electric Fuels Limited, an advanced developer located in Jerusalem, Israel. He has extensive experience working collaboratively with leading energy technology companies in Great Britain, Germany, and Israel. Mr. Mader served as the Director of Advanced Energy Technology at the Center for Automotive Research under its Chairman, Dr. David E. Cole in October 2000. He joined the University of Michigan as Energy Research Director for the College of Engineering in April 2005.