bcd application of bakshi chen dong stock valuation model
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ABSTRACT
This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the BCD stock valuation on
the U.S., Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets, and in one specific event, merger. The BCD
stock valuation is developed by Bakshi and Chen (1998) and extended by Dong (1998).
This stock valuation model offers a closed-form solution for valuing stock price.
The first essay investigates the predictive power and the investment performance
of the BCD stock valuation model by comparing the five valuation measures, including
the BCD model-determined mispricing, book/market, earnings/price, size, and past return
momentum in the U.S. market. The results show that the BCD model mispricing is the
most significant predictor in forecasting future 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month returns
among the valuation measures.
The second essay studies the investment performance of the BCD stock valuation
model in the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets. The relative predictive power of the
future stock returns is examined by four valuation measures, including the BCD model-
determined mispricing, earnings/price, size, and past return momentum. The results show
that the BCD model-determined mispricing is always the most significant predictor in
both the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets.
The third essay adopts the BCD stock valuation model to evaluate the impact of
the mergers on the BCD model-determined mispricing to both bidding and target firms, - ii -
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the BCD model-determined mispricing to multiple bidders and single bidders, and the
mispricing change to merger activity in three situations: (1) when a merger is successful
or unsuccessful, (2) if the firm's attitude toward a merger is friendly or hostile, and (3)
whether cash or noncash payment is used. The results reveal that the target firms are
undervalued before the announcement date and overvalued when the merger is
announced. Also, the bidding firms are overvalued relative to the target firms before the
announcement date. Moreover, the returns for the bidding firms in successful mergers are
larger when the magnitude of undervaluation is larger. Finally, single bidders have higher
mispricing than multiple bidders.
- iii -
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