bcg global payments report 2013 sep 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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SWIFT is a member-owned cooperative that provides the communications platform, products and
services to connect more than 10,000 banking organizations, securities institutions and corporate
customers in 212 countries and territories. SWIFT enables its users to exchange automated,
standardized nancial information securely and reliably, thereby lowering costs, reducing
operational risk and eliminating operational ineciencies. SWIFT also brings the nancial
community together to work collaboratively to shape market practice, dene standards and
debate issues of mutual interest. For more information, please visit swi.com.
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting rm and the worlds
leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-for-
prot sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical
challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep insight into
the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the clientorganization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more
capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with
78 oces in 43 countries. For more information, please visit bcg.com.
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S 3 | T B C G
GLOBAL PAYMENTS 2013
GeTTinG BuSineSS ModelS and exeCuTion RiGhT
STEFAN DAB
MOHAMMED BADI
GERO FREUDENSTEIN
DEEPAK GOYAL
ALENKA GREALISH
PEDRO RAPALLO
CARL RUTSTEIN
OLIVIER SAMPIERI
TJUN TANG
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| G P 3
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
OVERVIEW: ADAPTING TO THE NEW NEW NORMAL
The Two-Speed World
Strong Trade Growth and Cross-Border Payments
The Wholesale TransacTionBanking imperaTiveMaking the Sales Machine Hum
Seven Best Practices in Pricing
The Service Model as a Diferentiator
THE CHANGING WORLD OF MERCHANT PAYMENT
REQUIREMENTS
New Revenue Pools
Intensifying Competition
The Need to Act Now
THE DYNAMICS OF CARDSKey Trends in the Issuer Space
Identifying and Capturing Pockets of Growth
Customer-Relationship University
APPENDIX: AN OVERVIEW OF VOLUMES, VALUES, AND
revenues in The paymenTs markeTplace, 20122022
FOR FURTHER READING
NOTE TO THE READER
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T B C G S | 3
T - businesses represent
an increasingly critical element of the banking industry and the
b - d. T t -
t f tb t d t f t
td tf -t t tw
t tt t t f t dd. ittt tt
t t b d t t t f t btd f, t tt, d t xt
.
i t t b t dt, w t-
cally taken a regional approach, looking separately at the state of play
t a, e, d a-pf. lt , dt
f tdt, w bd The Transaction Banking Advantage: The
Path to Profitable Growth,a collection of four articles that addressed
tt-b t: t d w t-
t b; t f t a-pf d b td
fw; b t; d t tt t.
T , t gb pt t, w t t
tdt ft d t dtd dt t td. a
t f t dt, w wd wt sWiFT, t b d
f f- .
rt t t t w t t , w
ft ff b w f t dt d, t -
tt t -t t: ft w
transaction banking, the impact of digital technology on acquirers and
t d, d t tt f t b d b.
W df t dt d dt t-
d b t . T d tt-f ,
card and account maintenance fees, and spread income generated
f t t, w dd-dt
t (DDa). F f dft d fft fd -
dd tt-f . (s t adx f dt.)
g t dft, t xt -qt
f tt b-b . W df tt b
dt d td t t, t
f t t.
Our aim in Global Payments 2013: Getting Business Models and Execution
Right t d ttt tt t t t d
INTRODUCTION
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4 | G P 3
tt-b b wt t fd f tt
bt w t dt . W ff dt
w f t d b t b dfft t f
d t t d t. i td -
tt w w t, f ft t
dt f t b f , fw ttt ffd tt t tt q. T t dt fx, d t
b tb t ft f t-bd t
f-bd t d. T w t-
t t d f t dd w b t ttt tt ff-
t dt t b d d t xt -
bt t t.
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T B C G S | 5
I the 20082009
, t t d t-
t-b b b t
t f b. i 2012, t
businesses generated $301 billion in transac-
t- (d t d
d f) w $223 b
t-td (d tt f d d ). T
tt td -qt f
b-b . B
handled $377 trillion in noncash transactions
2012, t t t t f
b gDp.
ad b w td. B 2022,
t d tt-b
w ttd $1.1 t,
d wt t (cagr) f 8
t. (s exbt 1.) T x
xtd t ft twd t-td
d t d
tt f t. T
f tt w
estimated $712 trillion by 2022, a CAGR of
7 t.
o, t-td b
td t t tb
f f b, d d
tf w t bd t t
d f wt. m, wt
t xt f dt d, t b-
t tt dt
tt, dtb d -
t w (-t-t) ft.
T b d b d-
b b d w-t f fd-
d qdt.
at t t, t-td b-
es continue to face challenges on multipleft. rt t t
only from the implementation of the Single
Euro Payments Area (SEPA) but also from in-
t f t, wt t-
f tt d dt b w -
tt, t t. i ddt, t
ttbt f t b t-
ttd b d
as mobile payments and related deals and
offerings on the retail side, and in supply
f t w d. T
t t f t f dt .
T -tt f d b
banks are broadly poised to decline, particu-
t t. (s exbt 2.)
g t z f t t t,
b w t dt t t w w
normal climate and sharpen their business
d t d d. pt-
t t, f t-
-tt d t x-
t x w b ft
w f tt. c
tt, wt -fft
d t, w b
OVERVIEWadaPTinG To The new new noRMal
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6 | G P 3
Latin America
2022
0.13
2012
0.10
+2.5% +0.3%
2022
0.063
2012
0.061
Asia-Pacific (mature)
2022
0.13
2012
0.14
1.2% 1.0%
2022
0.12
2012
0.13
Eastern Europe
20222012
5.7% 0.8%
20222012
0.05 0.0580.063
Middle East and North Africa
2022
0.11
2012
0.15
3.2% 1.9%
2022
0.24
2012
0.29
Asia-Pacific (emerging)
2022
0.24
2012
0.16
+4.3% +2.4%
2022
0.64
2012
0.50
Retail Wholesale Compound annual growth rate
Average transaction fee ($)
Western Europe
20222012
4.5% 0.8%
20222012
0.08 0.0670.073
North America
0.1040.107
0.3% 0.1%
0.1320.134
20222012 20222012
0.030.05
Sources:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013; BCG analysis.
E | Average Fees per Transaction Will Decline in Mature Markets and Increase in SomeEmerging Markets
20 1008060400
5
EasternEurope
42
10
31
WesternEurope
108
25
83
Asia-
Pacific(emerging)
92
35
57
Asia-Pacific(mature)
65
11
54
LatinAmerica
41
10
31
NorthAmerica
159
117
MENA2
8
RoW1
2
7
9
100806040200
45
17
28
EasternEurope
97
28
69
WesternEurope
157
42
115
Asia-Pacific(emerging)
337
124
213
Asia-Pacific(mature)
86
15
71
LatinAmerica
107
28
79
NorthAmerica
284
97
187
MENA2
19
28
RoW1
9
524
1,140
Revenues, 2012 ($billions) Revenues, 2022 ($billions)
8% annualgrowth
Retail Wholesale
Cumulative share of total (%)Cumulative share of total (%)
342
Sources:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013; BCG analysis.1Rest of world.2Middle East and North Africa.
E | Payments and Transaction-Banking Revenues Combined Will Reach an Estimated$1.1 Trillion by 2022
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T B C G S | 7
capabilities for maintaining margins and,
tt, f -.
The Two-Speed World
W t tt , t wd btw
w t dt t -
d t t d d
(rDe), wt wt b-
w t tw-d wd. F
2012 t 2022, t d
jtd t w t cagr f
11 t rDe, d wt 4 t
d 5 t, t, t dd
t. s, rDe w t t-
wt jtd cagr f12 t tt t-td -
t t dd t, w
jtd cagr f 5 t.
Underlying this dichotomy are numerous
ft d dt d.
Mature markets are challenged by thin mar-
, dt wt, d-
er populations, and legacy payments infra-
tt tt x t
d. cd t t td,t t d-
oped markets since the depths of the finan-
wd w b wt
d tt. B fw fd
tt xt t t, -
t wt t b d b t
t f wt. B t
opportunity to ease some of these pressures
d t d f t d
t d: t
-t-t bt, t t
btw t t b d
t b , d t
t fft. (ot ff-
ciency is also discussed in The Road to Excel-
lence: Global Retail Banking 2010/2011, Bcg
t, Db 2010.)
T w d t b d dfft
d t. i t-
t e, f x, ft w
dt t d -
. i nt a d t u.k., t
t w t b d dt,
especially from the credit card business, and
f - tt.
In RDEs, by contrast, greenfield opportunities
btf. rDe bft f
d gDp d wt, -t
t t bd w
t ftt, d t
t tt d t d-t f w t. a ft tt
the fact that many domestic corporations in
rDe td b t wt , wt
some rising to displace established corpora-
t t t 500 b .
m, rDe t tt
tt b ddt f
b- d -ff td-
pointsuch as the high use of cash and a
f bd dt tt f t . T
t f t d d -t,
wt tt t f
, w t f w
t wt.
T mgrt cs tcrs -pmts
p pts r grt.
att t dt d ( dbt
d) w d b t
d d t
wt rDe b t t
d tt f f t t
t ff t b: t
t. ed w tt t-
w tt t td
tend to keep more funds in their accounts for
longer periods of time than do customers
w wtdw t aTm. T f t
tt dt d -
t t.
i w wt t, w bd
tt t fqt f tt t
dtt t d -
d t t b
that are 50 percent higher across income seg-
t, d, d . T
wf rDe t t -
t, w d d
wd. T d t
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8 | G P 3
id, f x, d 3.5 t.
it tf t f b rDe
t d t tt-t
d t ttt w t.
B rDe w d t
segmented business models in order to effec-t tt t t w t
t t t b.
Tr b ctb-gt grt crpmts lt amrc.
In Africa and in the emerging markets of the
a-pf , wt w b d
f t t f .
mb t d b b- dt
w b b t t
w f b d t itt
t t ttd d. i lt a,
t w t t f
t t d d -t
d wtd t f f
. a t, bt t dt f t lt a
jtd t w t cagr f 7.5 t
f 2012 t 2022 (xd Bz, w
t jtd cagr 9 t). pt-
td t w-
t cagr f 10 t. i t,
both credit and debit card transactions at
t t f w t cagr f
20 t 25 t d 10 t 15 -
t lt a (xd
Bz).
i t , w t -
t db-dt wt d t
lt a. rt w t -
, bt f-bd b
w ttt. a, w w
wt t x f - (wt
tw d -wt), t f
b t t (d b-
bd t-f- t d b
wt), d t ft f -
t d t t.
at wt tt bdt
in RDEs, banks still need to foster a culture of
t d t t zt
models for payments if they hope to take a
d t w b-
d d b jt x. nw d
w b qd d t w t
b t f ttt t
constructed a solid and reliable banking rela-
t f t dt.
idd, t b rDe
d tbd d-
b t b t b f
companiesthe bank that handles a compa-
t. i id, f x-
, b-t b (w t
hold about 70 percent of all banking assets) t-t b d-
t, f -b -
t. o t xt fw , b-t
b xtd t w cagr f 15
t t-td , -
d wt 25 t f t-t t-
tt. s f t tt dt
business models similar to those built by
tt-b d dd
t.
Strong Trade Growth and Cross-Border PaymentsIn addition to benefiting from strong eco-
wt d rDe, t
zb tt t d
t wt w: t dd
f -bd t d td -
, d b td fw wdwd.
gb, t f -bd t-
t w t jtd cagr f 8 -
t f 2012 t 2022. (s exbt 3.) u-
d t t
wt td, w b xd t
tw t t f b gDp, w t
t ft td fw tt -
tbtd t t xt t wt f
t b t a-pf
. (s pft f a r
d f nw gb Td Fw, Bcg
t, otb 2012.) a-pf f
global trade jumped from 22 percent in 2001
t 30 t 2010 d xtd t
t 35 t b 2020. o q w
b w t tt, -
t t x t ft t
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T B C G S | 9
t wd t t td t 2020: c, J, id, st k, s-
, d h k.
More broadly, banks in both RDEs and the
t t t tz t b-
ness and operating models if they hope to
t wt tt d z
t d q f .
utt, t w w t the payments industry is bringing both
tt d tt. T f t
w b t-tt, ttd
b d, d xt x.
Wt ft t t d
t f t wt btb, t w-
w t t t-
t.
Americas Europe Asia-Pacific Total
2022
4.1
2012
2.4 4.1
11.0
2012 2022
9%
2022
12.7
2012 2022
15.2
2012
13%
2022
21.9
2012
8%
2022
20.7
2012
9.9
10%
2022
54.8
2012
20.5
Volume
(billions oftransactions)
Value
($trillions)
3% 3% 5% 6% 3% 3%
4% 6% 5% 7% 6% 9% 5% 8%
Share of total volume for region Share of total value for regionCompound annual growth rate
5.6 6.8 6.7
10%
8%
4%
2022
4.5
2012
3.1
6%
1% 1%
Sources:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013; BCG analysis.
Note:Cross-border payments transactions include all payment types.
E | The Volume and Value of Cross-Border Payments Transactions Are Growing Steadily
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| G P 3
THE WHOLESALE
TransacTion-BankinGIMPERATIVE
C pointing t w ttb f t
qt t b b dt. i
2012, w tt-b
w bt $220 b , 15 -
t f t tt t-b
. n $140 b w f t-t- f d t-t-td
(w exbt 1), d t
$80 b w f -ddd ,
ft t d td-t-
d . Tt f d t
bd jtd t w t
CAGR of 10 percent through 2022, reaching
t $350 b. T x w
b d b dt bt td wt t
dd , td t
wt rDe, d t
t d d t.
idd, dd t, t
bt f d d
cost of funding has led banks to focus increas-
ingly on attracting stable transaction deposits
f t w t. at t
time, a depressed return on equity is empha-
z t d f d f-b d
dt t w t qd-
ityto compensate for reduced trading and
.
B tt x t w tt
bttt tt w f t
transaction-banking champions b
b t ft dt t
t t. T t
higher profits, form deeper client relation-
, t t dt, d
z wt tt d. (s ex-
bt 4.) mt tt, t td
tb, b b.
T b d btt -
t-dt t (d 125 t) d
w t f fd. T dfd
x, wt t 40 t f
t f dt
b, wd t t
ft t qt. T
strong transaction relationships that these
b dd wt t t
also opened significant possibilities for
ddt f-dt tt bd
tt b, FX d td-
td dt.
T tt-b
a clear sense of their strategic strengths
d bd, w t f
xt x. r 25 t
f b w t-
tion banking are linked to large multination-
d f ttt. T t
realm of a select number of global banks that
b wt t
dt t d f -
tzt.
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T B C G S |
nt, 75 t f -
centrated in cash management products and
f t dz t t b t. T t -
d t q ttd
t wt b d
t dt, bt t b
f xt: w t , w t ,
d w t z t d.
Making the Sales Machine Humld tt b zd tt
bt-- t t
dff t t. T f
dtf -tt t d
xz tt wt t. T
t t w t
t f tt.
T bt f x .
Bt t d b t b d-
d t d xt -
ments of the sales cycle, cutting across tradi-
t . T f fft d
fft dt dt, tt
tt, t, xt, dt
t, d qdt t. (s
exbt 5.)
Product Development.The importance of
dt t d t
t. F -d tt, t td -
t d t dt. F dt
clients, the emphasis should instead be on
w dt bd d bt
t t. rbt d -fd t-
f w f
t d bd f wt.
id tt d w
t f t t d- w
w t t f-t
t bt dt t. F, f t
t t w dd
t d t t t tt f
product specialists, leading banks are increas-
ingly bundling products into more standard-
zd t d t b t
t t -
t.
Target Setting.Tt-b t-
tial is not equally distributed among clients,
d d x.
Yet many banks still use only basic client
tt. T t dd t-
t b wf t t
dtt t ft f
Stickier client relationships:
Banks with deeper multiproductrelationships oen have transac-
tion services embedded in their
clients business processes.
Advantaged pricing:Banks with
strong multiproduct relationships
generate better risk-adjusted loan
margins than lending-heavy banks.
Additional growth opportunities:
Core transaction relationships
create possibilities for additional
fee-product penetration, including
foreign exchange, international
products, advanced liquidity
solutions, and industry-specificpayment platforms.
0 20 40 60 80
20
0
60
40
Share of revenues from transactionfees and deposit interest income (%)
Return on regulatory capital (%)
R2= 0.53
Profitability Client relationships
Western Europe Australia North America
Sources:BCG Corporate Banking Benchmarking database; BCG analysis.
Note:Loan losses are normalized to 50 basis points for all participants to control for country and credit-cycle differences.
E | Transaction-Banking Champions Are More Protable and Have Stronger ClientRelationships
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| G P 3
t d d t t f tt f
b dt bd t.They are able to translate the results of
ttd wt-z d t
metrics that are easy for the sales force to
dtd d . T t
d t tt wt tt.
W t t
commercial strategies based on industry
t ( t d td) d
t z.
Origination and Sales Execution.Client
tt, bt t bt
w t z t d, w
ddt b
tt wt d t ttd t,
t , d tt. Wt t
tt-b t t
clarityf t d, w b
t f t f t xt.
The roles of both product specialists and
relationship managers in the sales process are
dd, wt t
bt . pdt t
d t t t,
reinforcing the focus on pockets of untapped
tt. F x, d t-
tion banks are creating separate roles for
t d f t dt-t t, wt tf t
b.
Deposit Monitoring.Fw wd d tt
t f d
t t t tt-
b b. yt t t
t dt dt
ft f t tt
to be the biggest hurdle to transparent
t. T tt-b
tt w bd
dd b t d xt-
nal information into highly actionable
dbd, d d
t, tt
dt t t t , d t
information to manage risk and understand
t d. F x, t tt
td, dt
t bw qt, d
b t t.
Liquidity Incentives.Depending on their
txt d b tt, b
w t w w t dt
Wholesaletransaction-
banking salesprocess
OriginationTarget setting
Liquidityincentives
Product
Depositmonitoring
Salesexecution
Targeted product innovation
Marketing documentation
Market sizing
Segment targeting
Target definition
Client deposit planning
Meeting preparation
Objective setting
Sales force training
Sales channels
Sales mandate
Execution tools
Execution processes
P&L recognition and incentives
Individual incentives
Liquidity fund transfer prices
Deposit dashboard
Sales-pipeline tracking tool
Source:BCG case experience and analysis.
E | The Wholesale Transaction-Banking Sales Process Is Multifaceted
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T B C G S | 3
zd t p&l d w t
t t. s w f
t b , d
t w t f b
tt d. yt dt
specialists and relationship managers shouldb d t w f t b-
t t b d. it
particularly important that in setting transfer
prices, treasury departments properly bal-
t fd f t b wt t
t ttt f t-t
b. s dt tt w
f t tt.
Seven Best Practices in Pricingit t w w b
t t tzd t -
tt w t t t ,
ttd b wt tt -
t . nt, dfft
t b t d-bd dt
(d FX), tt b
xt t f-bd dt f
w t -t t . T
t wt t
f w t b b -d.
Bd , tt-b
t bt t t
w t t -t
dt.
Full-Cost Pricing.B wt xd t
f t t df t
t. nt, f t t
t, b -
mulate a large number of clients that do not
t td. h, b
need to set prices on the basis of fully loaded
t d t d dt.
Deliberate De-averaging.Wholesale contracts
w dd t t b d d-
t t tt tt d b-
w. i d t d t t,
banks must robustly segment clients on the
b f z, t, b w, d
t d t f t
b tbt ( d, ,
d bz ) d t
.
Smart Bundling.Bdd td t
- dt. Bt
ttd bd t d t
btt, w t t
b t tb dt bt t
bundle price is maintained on the otherdt. ct f t
t t w t tt f
dt-t d w t-
er balances can be used to pay for other
b .
Reversible Volume Discounts.Discounts are a
b t f xd f wt,
but they should be tiered according to
d d b
td. a d t d b t wt d
djtt t tt.
Full Charges.it t
f wt xt
. a 50 t f
can be lost due to leakage (not billing for
bb dd) d (t
t f t ). s
t b f td d
d wt zt.
i crmt r crs mrg csts, bsc ccmt cts tt t mt r mrgtrss.
Updated Pricing.F t b tt w
bd, t 20 t f t -
tt w t 10 d, wt
tt dt b 20 . o t
b f t , d t
t d.
it tt t w tt
b d bd dxt
w b.
Margin-Based Incentives.Including pricing or
t t d t
t f t t t x f
w (d tf w ).
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4 | G P 3
The Service Model as aDifferentiatorTt-b td
t d t w.
T w t tz t d,
bt d b tt tft-t-b , tt
d xt d btw t
t d w f f t b
( t d td f). T
dbt d t d
to free sales timeand solicit customer feed-
back that can be used to enhance products or
d.
o t d, t w dffttd
tt xt d t - . o t t, fft d
d d qd dt -
t b t b t.
More broadly, as critical as it is to become a
tt-b td
w-b t, t
cannot be reached simply through deposit
t t . Bd bt-
- tt b t t dt. mt f t d b tt w
bd td d
d t f-t t b,
t, d d.
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T B C G S | 5
THE CHANGING WORLD OF
MERCHANT PAYMENTREQUIREMENTS
T
dramatic impact on retail commerce
d w . T
- t t t w
d. ettd t $1.1 t b
2013, f $0.5 t 2002, t
xtd t w b 15 t
t t u.s. d tu.k. ad fw dt t t
dtdjt bt t tt
be bought in a shop can also be bought
, d f t f
.
i t t, t wt b-
d-t t dfd
their market positions from purely online
retailers by using their physical assets to
t dffttd - ff.
T t dt t wt
t t. i t t f, t
w t t b
f -t d -t f d-
t . ld t t
things further by means such as sending tar-
td ff t t b d
t t t x wt
tbt-bd t t t t f .
In order to facilitate the creation of an
d t x,
t t b-ff
t t b dw xt . T
t t bd t bt
t t d - t. i t
same spirit , more retailers are looking to
w wt t d
. a f t d ft-
w tt f t -
d t w .
New Revenue Poolsrt t ff tt, d-
t t tw t t t
f t d. (s
exbt 6.) T d bt t
t t xb d t t
cash or checks dominate onlineand to the
ddt , fd -
t, td wt tt.
T b t twd -
ments is therefore playing a central role in
d wt t-dt
. i e, t f -
t d xtd t
d $1.5 b b 2016, d
wt bt $0.8 b 2012.
While intensifying competition among pay-
t w t t
, w b -
td bt b t xt t -
dt d b t w t
f w t d tt xt. F x-
, t w t f ft
tt t t b-
-
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6 | G P 3
ff t, t tzt
bt, d t f b-t
t tf (api). it-
national merchants, for their part, require
bt, t fd
t, d t t
d tw f q (w
d tt f t).
Also, particularly in Europe, acquirers are
t dt f w -t
bt t t t
t f t t.
F x, q b
t ff -e t wt -
tt t d t tt-
wt.
Intensifying CompetitionAs payments players look to defend their cur-
t t bd w , t
m&a tt. att
b t , wt t j
t , q, d d
f t b t -
d (psp). i ddt t t
t , t b -
dt t dd t.
W xt t ft m&a tt
t t dt twd
w qb tt. idd, tt-
t t w d t
x qt, t, d -
tt d t t b-
t t d t t wd -
d f t t.
o bf tt t w tt
b b f b d.
F x, q w d t
t wt d
tdt dw d td-
alone PSPs in order to gain the capabilities
tt t w q. T b w b
b t jtf tt t
w t d fd
ttt d t b-
t -. m, t t f
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cash
Electronic direct/ACHWallets
Other (checks, prepaid cards)
Onlineconsumerpayments2
40
2
17
4
All consumerpayments1
40
13
28
12
7
Share of total payment value in the U.K. (%)
Debit card
Credit card
Cards share of total payment value is
50 percent greater in online spending
...and merchant charges are higher because
of higher risk and the need for a gateway
155
200
85
25
0
100
200
300
400
310
~2x
Basemerchantrate
Risk fee
Gateway fee
Typicalonline
transaction3
Merchant rates in the U.K. (basis points)
Typicaloffline
transaction3
Example: The United Kingdom
46
Sources:Euromonitor; Datamonitor; Barclays website; BCG analysis.12012 Euromonitor data.22009 Datamonitor data.3BCG estimate for typical small to medium-sized corporate offering.
E | Online Spending Generates More Revenue Because of Greater CardShare and Higher Merchant Rates
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T B C G S | 7
t tf
w tt fw d b
d w t t
q. T d w
t tt t t dt wt
t t t, t -bd .
B tt, q w b b t
ffd t tt dd t d-
bt -, t
t m&a. m t fw b
w t t t. o w, w,
tt t fw w d f. i
t d, t w w t t t
zt tt dd t
t t: b t, t qd t jtf tt,
d dffttd dt t t,
d xtt f t td f
t t- t.
m, ddt psp w -
tw . T ft t
-, - t
( dt-d -b -
) w t f xt
d t t t. T -ment is not of interest to mainstream acquir-
. T d ff
differentiated product to a specific set of mer-
t tf x, b ff
t tt wt f t
(erp) ftw f
f dt.
The Need to Act Nowi d t t t w t,
t f w d t dtt
sharpen their strategies, build scale, and con-
t t d t t ff
d t. aq w d t
t t . ad w t t tt
t t w dd t t
t t d bt, w f
-t .
Develop a clear strategic plan for where tobuild in-house versus where to partner.This
d bt f -t-t
tt q t
strong merchant relationships, for in-
stanceand for technological capabilities
fd-t t. a
clear strategy is particularly important for
b tt t q
t f bd t-
b t. s w t
bd bt - d ddtt, a-p
b tt td psp d
b-bd t-f- t. F
, w, t t tt
, t wt xt psp d
t tt w b t bt t.
Carefully identify the customer segments inwhich you want to winand oer the
services needed to do so.Merchant require-
t b d,w t d t t d
dtt d t d t
t. p d t
t d t
control key elements of the customer
x. a x t b psp
t d t
t f t -bd .
Build the IT organization and capabilities
needed to work within an open, evolvingecosystem.Institutions may need to create
dtt t t w xb, tt,
dt f t -
iT x. at t t, t
w d t t tt
core IT skills such as speed, security, and
tbt. T bt,
t dd t t api tt w
td-t d t tt ,
w b t.
Focus on improving the retailer and card-holder customer experience.There is much
t f w t tt. F
x, w w t bt t
economics of microacquiring (processing
transactions for micromerchants), espe-
emv wd, w b tt
q d t
terms of simplifying and speeding up the
t t .
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8 | G P 3
THE DYNAMICS OF CARDS
T emerged from
t wt
to address but also numerous opportunities to
t. T b bt
bt b dd d, w
b (bt d fw), tt
t, d td tt. T
tt d w ttt t d
approaches (such as those related to mobile
wt d b dt), w d dt
business models (such as those created by
t t ), d
dd t t tt
f t. a w t
t-t- w t t t -
t, f d-
bd d tb bd .
To be sure, the retail payments business is
w t wt tt.
W ft tt tt-td
td b -ttd (t) -
t w f $249 b wd-
wd t $460 b f 2012 t 2022, -
jtd cagr f 6 t. nt a d
a-pf w b t tt , wt
RDEs in the latter posting the most robust
wt. (s exbt 7.) i ddt, t-
td w w f $138 b
t $321 b, jtd cagr f 9 t.
i d t z t wt tt, b
t t t f w t d w
the industry is headed, identify their largest
opportunities, and take action on a number
f ft.
key Ted the iue speT f td f d
around macroeconomic changes, industrytt d t, w t, d
heightened competition in key customer
t.
Macroeconomic Changes.On the transaction
d f d t, w gDp
wt d t
d t dt f t
ttd t td wt
t (t f tt d
t). T -
dt d f d f
. o d,
regulatory pressure in many countries, a
t b f dq, w
tt- wt, d
t t. W xt
t dt w t t t
t b t t t.
i w d t t t t t t
t tjt.
Industry Structure and Regulation.The
t f w t b
d b f . F x,
t b t t f -
-
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T B C G S | 9
tions in the United States: the CARD Act,
d t b x tt-t
d dd f; dt t rtE that requires customers to opt in for debit
t-f- d aTm d tt;
d t Db adt (wt t
Ddd-F W stt rf d c-
ptt at f 2010), w tbd
limits on debit card interchange rates, elimi-
td tw xt, d td w
t tt d t c F-
ptt B.
The impact on card issuers has been signifi-
t, d w t bt. W w
, t- d
d t,
costs (particularly in terms of the number of
f-t-qt ),
f, tt t, d w
d dt td. Tt
said, as regulation continues to be implement-
d t d tt b
ft d t tt t-
ly strong performance of cards could put them
b t ft f b ftbt.
i ddt, t t dd, w
wtd t d f
d b b t f
b tt. T wd
t t t t, branches (for sales channels) and data sourc-
(f dwt d
t tt).
There are many implications from this con-
dt. F x, t-t dt
w w t dwt t-
ff dt . idd, w
d tff d b t 20
t. Bd dt t t
d d wt w-tzd w
tf t d-f tt f
t bt bdd tf.
New Technology.The proliferation of techno-
t t
dt d b wt d t bt
of automated clearinghouse interfaces at the
physical point of salehas led to the intro-
dt f w t dt d
dt-d f ft. a, t bt t
b dt t dtd d
t b ftd -w-
f t t. W xtt
t d t fwd, w d
t b tt w dt, f ft,
90
141
2148
36 45 32
128
48 48
13 20
27
46
10
31
1826
25
85
35
67
18
49
0
50
100
150
200
250
Retail payments revenues ($billions)
115
83
213
5771
54
79
31
187
117
69
31
2012 2022 2012 2022 2012 2022 2012 2022 2012 2022 2012 2022
Share of transactionrevenues fromcredit cards (%)
Latin AmericaNorth America Western Europe Eastern EuropeAsia-Pacific(mature)
Asia-Pacific(emerging)
Transaction revenuesAccount revenues
49 51 68 70 63 64 71 63 34 32 31 28
Compound annual growth rate
5%
10%3%
14%
3%
8%
Contribution by credit cards varies significantly by region
Sources:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013; BCG analysis.
Note: Not shown: Middle East and North Africa, rest of world (see Appendix for data).
E | Retail Payments Revenues Will Post Strong Growth, with RDEs Leading the Way
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| G P 3
d t w t t
t dt t t t. rt, t w
t bf w -
tions are strong enough to prompt a change
b.
Heightened Competition in Key Customer
Segments.Standard business models are
b dtd dt t f
t t d t
t , b,
d w- . i ft, t-
tion in all customer segments is forcing
t wd, tb d
t t . W tt tt
jt 50 t f tt t
td t t twd, d tt d f d d
t 75 t f .
it srg r-b sgmts c-t t sp rgs.
T d w t t d t
consequences such as increasing costs for
wd d -t f t ff-
t t, t w t f
d f b, d t -
t f w t-f- f d
t dd t b . i ddt,
t dbd t
w t t w w d, b-
, d t-dt ff. F,
bzt b q d -
t tw w d t ft
t x w d xd d
.
Identifying and Capturing Pocketsof Growthg t b td, t b -
tt t dtf d t -
b t f wt. l d, d
w btt dt ft d
pricing in their search for higher market share
d t t ftb t. B t
t fw f t, q t
t dtd t.
st t w tt w t tt wt tt
b.
itt t d ttw d d t d-td t t d.
Dtt tt -t d t t .
D dt ft f t t.
c t, , ,and fraud functions in order to ensure a
tt t x t d d.
W dd b d f -
t tt x ff-
d b (tt tt d)
d - d b (tt b
w d) t dt w t -
t w d t tt wt t-
t. (s exbt 8.) i t t wt
little greenfield opportunity, such as North
a, Wt e, d t f a-pf (d J, st k, d a-
t), tw wt
t: w f tt d -
b f t dd.
Understanding the cube model is critical to
t tt. if ff- d
t, t t d -
t tt w t t t t w
dt d. F x, -bdd
d d fd wt tt
t b t b tt tt
dd w -wd dt
dd w d tf
d t wt t bdd d.
More specifically, in order to benefit from the
b d, b d t z t
types of data:
Internal data for on-us transactions,t t dt t -
t t f t d-
standing
Credit-bureau data for o-us transactions, w tt ddtd-
-
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T B C G S |
t t dd dt ,
, d bbt w dt dt t b d,
f x, wt t dd
typically pays the minimum balance,
t, t f
b t
Third-party data based on card-issuer datasets,w d t
picture on not only the payment history
but also the type of interest being paid
( t dxd t)
and the type of card being used (such as
-b, wd t,
bdd wd t)
az d t b d
constitutes the critical first step in the journey
twd fft xd dt d
tf. o t t b td,
t w td t dt t
xt tt dw d
into the functional, technical, and emotional
d f tt t t. T
ff tt t dd
d dt ( w d)
tdt, d -
tion, such as making mortgage payments from
-dd t t tf dt d wd t.
Customer-Relationship Universitya b x t t -
t f t w dt ff, t
wt t q f t wt
w ct-rt ut.
T b f dfft f -
t dtt wt t t
t f - dt d t t-
t t, d d wt dt-
w t d bt d
w dfft dt bd t
f w t.
Level One: Mastering the Standard Cross-
Sell.B b w t t
dt t t t. l-
tt d t dt
dt-d t t-t
t bt t b
b t tdt t-
t. F x, b d t-
t tt dt t dwt
- dt-d t. T t t
Debit-activerevolver3
Transactor1Pay-downrevolver2
Not a cardcustomer
Transactor1
Debit-activerevolver3
Pay-downrevolver2
Risk
Off-us active card behavior
On-us behavior
How can the issuerprotect its
strong position?
Can the issuers cardbe a substitute for a
noncard lendingproduct?
How can the issuer modify its productsto increase segment share?
Are these customers aware of the issuerslending offers?
Does the issuer have a differentiatedproduct for these customers?
How can the issuer expand functionalityto include lending in its charge products?
Source:BCG case experience and analysis.
Note:On-us behavior is activity on a banks own cards; off-us behavior is activity on competitors cards.1Consistently pays down balances each month.2Makes large purchase and pays down balance over time.3Consistently carries balances, making payments and incremental transactions.
E | The Cube Model Helps Reveal Where the Greatest Opportunities Lie
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| G P 3
customers might be that by linking their
credit card to their current account and
automatically paying at least the minimum
b t d b, t w
t f.
In addition, card issuers can capture incre-
t wt b t t t
t- tt t -
. h jt d t b-
, d f
tt d w td t t w
btt dtd dd b w-
f t t b -t -
tomer segmentation so that customers are
ffd t dt.
Level Two: Leveraging Transaction and
Demographic Data to Generate Thoughtful
Oerings.a b d w t w
customers better than its competitors do
b f t-tt dt
tt d t t t t
b. F x, b d
dt w dt, w
b f t, d
w t d w dt
t f dt d . cdt-bd td-t dt competitorscustom-
d bt t t
dt d t fd d f
products such as mortgages, personal loans,
d dt d. l-tw tt
d btt, t
d t t t.
Level Three: Creating Product Bundles
Targeted at Specic Segments.B t,
b d bd t t d
b dt t d t f
dt d t t -
t t b f t wt,
wt z, d t dt tf.
o x t b tdt
dt td t tdt
dt .
Level Four: Collecting Data on Trigger
Events and Oering Relevant Products as
Customer Needs Change.B t f
ttt t wt f t
customers is doing and make highly targeted
. c t t dt
t t jb
, d, t bt f
d, dt d t -
d d tt t
wt t t d. T b
w w t t t f
additional products and reaches out in at .
Card issuers can also harness their under-
standing of customer spending patterns and
f t t bd ttd dt-
ing and promotion program along the lines of
t-fdd wd. T
b dd - t
wt w b f wd tf.
D dffttd t x-
t tt t tright offers at the right time and are not in-
dtd wt .
Level Five: Combining Products, Linking
Rewards, and Using Special Tools to Forge
New Value Propositions.Although it is the
t t, w
might be thought of as graduate school at
ct-rt ut t
tt t . ld t b
d bd t b dtbd d wt dt t
d ttd dt-wd b-
d. B dt d xb
wd t, t b t
proposition that is greater than the sum of its
t. F x, b dd
special program that combines current and
t wt dbt d dt
d wt t t t t
, d t d wd f t-
w t . T
t xz t t b
f dt.
I t w w t, b
d t b t t
f t tf dt
analysis, customer segmentation, and product
dt t w t dt d -
wd bd. T t tt b
dt. rt, t
t ff wb d t-fft -
t t t t d wt d t
all types of paymentsand, more broadly, all
t f f t.
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T B C G S | 3
T tt f t b t t-
d b (t b f
tt), (t t
t f tt), d -
nue (the amount of income generated for
banks and other market participants by non-
tt). T adx d
detailed forecast of the payments market- f 2012 t 2022.
We definepayments revenuesas direct and in-
dt td b t -
. T d tt-f -
nues, card and account maintenance fees,
and spread income generated from current
t w d-
d-dt t (DDa). F f -
drafts and nonsufficient funds are considered
tt-f . W dftrans-
actionbanking t-td dt
d , t -
f t t. a b t
adx f t. i t
tb tt fw, tt t f t d tt -
. (nb t dd xt t tt
b f d.) i 2012, Bcg dtd
its global payments model to incorporate ad-
ditional data, adjust the forecast models to
t f t b , d xtd
t ft t 2022. Dt f Bcg
t b d d.
APPENDIXan oveRview of voluMeS, valueS, and RevenueS
in The PayMenTS MaRkeTPlaCe, 20122022
Source:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013.
Note:Data are for noncash payments. Total revenues include transaction and account revenues. Any minor discrepancies in totals are due torounding.
W P,
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Asia-Pacic(mature)
Asia-Pacic(emerging)
WesternEurope
EasternEurope
MiddleEast and
NorthAfrica
Rest ofworld Total
Volume(millions)
133,964 35,086 46,932 34,666 77,713 24,916 4,713 6,368 364,358
Value($millions)
101,622,897 29,703,800 52,448,202 55,322,327 98,634,051 27,022,625 5,561,226 6,586,989 376,902,118
Totalrevenues($millions)
158,932 41,388 65,025 92,336 107,925 41,572 8,101 9,166 524,444
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4 | G P 3
Source:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013.
Note:Any minor discrepancies in totals or subtotals are due to rounding.
V R W P
Region/payment type 2012 2022Compound annual
growth rate (%)
(Units: millions of transactions)
North America 133,964 253,453 7
Retail 101,750 196,064 7
Wholesale 32,214 57,389 6
Latin America 35,086 78,794 8
Retail 24,891 54,543 8
Wholesale 10,195 24,251 9
Asia-Pacic (mature) 46,932 64,656 3
Retail 41,072 56,011 3
Wholesale 5,860 8,645 4
Asia-Pacic (emerging) 34,666 108,609 12
Retail 30,230 96,492 12
Wholesale 4,436 12,117 11
Western Europe 77,713 103,591 3
Retail 63,260 84,526 3
Wholesale 14,453 19,065 3
Eastern Europe 24,916 54,747 8
Retail 19,381 42,089 8
Wholesale 5,535 12,657 9
Middle East and North Africa 4,713 40,773 24
Retail 4,094 35,845 24
Wholesale 619 4,928 23
Rest of world 6,368 17,836 11
Retail 5,064 14,316 11
Wholesale 1,304 3,520 10
World 364,358 722,459 7
W P,
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Asia-Pacic(mature)
Asia-Pacic(emerging)
WesternEurope
EasternEurope
MiddleEast and
NorthAfrica
Rest ofworld Total
Volume(millions)
253,453 78,794 64,656 108,609 103,591 54,747 40,773 17,836 722,459
Value($millions)
152,209,305 68,708,080 70,715,767 167,594,928 140,693,003 66,009,368 28,558,305 17,579,833 712,068,589
Totalrevenues($millions)
283,847 107,048 85,711 336,564 156,551 96,694 45,189 28,138 1,139,742
Source:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013.
Note:Data are for noncash payments. Total revenues include transaction and account revenues. Any minor discrepancies in totals are due torounding.
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T B C G S | 5
Source:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013.
Note:Any minor discrepancies in totals or subtotals are due to rounding.
V R W P
Region/payment type 2012 2022Compound annual
growth rate (%)
(Units: $millions)
North America 101,622,897 152,209,305 4Retail 15,445,548 22,230,283 4
Wholesale 86,177,350 129,979,021 4
Latin America 29,703,800 68,708,080 9
Retail 2,662,930 5,435,553 7
Wholesale 27,040,871 63,272,527 9
Asia-Pacic (mature) 52,448,202 70,715,767 3
Retail 4,054,953 5,307,473 3
Wholesale 48,393,250 65,408,294 3
Asia-Pacic (emerging) 55,322,327 167,594,928 12
Retail 4,622,215 17,089,883 14Wholesale 50,700,112 150,505,044 11
Western Europe 98,634,051 140,693,003 4
Retail 8,919,978 12,497,727 3
Wholesale 89,714,073 128,195,276 4
Eastern Europe 27,022,625 66,009,368 9
Retail 1,684,573 4,001,154 9
Wholesale 25,338,052 62,008,215 9
Middle East and North Africa 5,561,226 28,558,305 18
Retail 744,469 4,207,823 19
Wholesale 4,816,757 24,350,483 18
Rest of world 6,586,989 17,579,833 10
Retail 678,321 1,791,423 10
Wholesale 5,908,667 15,788,410 10
World 376,902,118 712,068,589 7
Source:BCG Global Payments Model, 2013.
Note:Any minor discrepancies in totals are due to rounding.
T R A T R
Region 2012 2022
Compound annual growth
rate (%)(Units: $millions)
North America 158,932 283,847 6
Latin America 41,388 107,048 10
Asia-Pacic (mature) 65,025 85,711 3
Asia-Pacic (emerging) 92,336 336,564 14
Western Europe 107,925 156,551 4
Eastern Europe 41,572 96,694 9
Middle East and North Africa 8,101 45,189 19
Rest of world 9,166 28,138 12
World 524,444 1,139,742 8
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6 | G P 3
FOR FURTHER READING
The Boston Consulting Group haspublished other reports and articlesthat may be of interest to senior -nancial executives. Recent exam-ples include those listed here.
Capitalizing on the Recovery:Global Asset Management 2013A report by The Boston ConsultingGroup, July 2013
Maintaining Momentum ina Complex World: GlobalWealth 2013A report by The Boston ConsultingGroup, May 2013
Survival of the Fittest: GlobalCapital Markets 2013A report by The Boston ConsultingGroup, April 2013
Big Data: The Next Big Thing forInsurers?An article by The Boston ConsultingGroup, March 2013
Distribution 2020: The Next BigJourney for Retail BanksA Focus by The Boston ConsultingGroup, March 2013
Committing to Customers in theNew New Normal: OperationalExcellence in Retail BankingA Focus by The Boston ConsultingGroup, February 2013
The New Challenge for HedgeFunds: Operational ExcellenceAn article by The Boston Consulting
Group, January 2013
An Inection Point in GlobalBanking: Risk Report 20122013A report by The Boston ConsultingGroup, December 2012
New New Normal in RetailPayments: Customer CentricityDriving Revenue Recovery
(Global Edition)A White Paper by The BostonConsulting Group, November 2012
New New Normal in RetailPayments: Revenue RecoveryRoad Map (North AmericanEdition)A White Paper by The BostonConsulting Group, November 2012
The Transaction BankingAdvantage: The Path to ProtableGrowthA report by The Boston ConsultingGroup in partnership with SWIFT,October 2012
How Banks Can Take the Lead inMobile PaymentsAn article by The Boston ConsultingGroup, June 2012
-
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T B C G S | 7
NOTE TO THE READER
About the AuthorsStefan Dabis a senior partner andmanaging director in the Brusselsoce of The Boston ConsultingGroup and the global leader of thetransaction-banking segment of theFinancial Institutions practice.
Mohammed Badiis a partner andmanaging director in the rms NewYork oce. Gero Freudensteinis apartner and managing director inBCGs Frankfurt oce. DeepakGoyalis a partner and managingdirector in the rms New Yorkoce. Alenka Grealishis atransaction-banking topic specialistin BCGs Chicago oce. PedroRapallois a partner and managingdirector in the rms Madrid oce.Carl Rutsteinis a senior partner
and managing director in BCGsChicago oce and the leader of thetransaction-banking segment inNorth America. Olivier Sampieriisa partner and managing director inthe rms Paris oce. Tjun Tangisa senior partner and managingdirector in BCGs Hong Kong oce.
AcknowledgmentsThe authors would particularly liketo thank the core team ofChristophe Hamal and TristanThomas, whose contributions wereinvaluable to the conception,development, and writing of thisreport. In addition, the authors areextremely grateful to Jrgen Eckel,Miriam Fritsche, and DennisBergmann, who were a vital part ofthe team that developed the BCGGlobal Payments Model. Gratefulthanks also go to the following BCGcolleagues: Ashwin Adarkar,Brent Beardsley, Jorge Becerra,
David Bronstein, Allard Creyghton,Tijsbert Creemers, LaurentDesmangles, John Garabedian,
Jennifer Glaspie, Alan Goodyear,Brad Henderson, Sumitra
Karthikeyan, Monish Kumar,Marshall Lux, Flavio Magalhaes,Santiago Mazn, Tim Monger,Federico Muxi, Niclas Storz,Steve Thogmartin, Andrew Toma,Pieter van den Berg, Ian Walsh,Andr Xavier, and Kuba Zielinski.
The authors are also deeplythankful to Francis Martin, LucMeurant, and Wim Raymaekersfrom SWIFT.
Finally, we thank Philip Crawford forhis editorial direction, as well asother members of the editorial andproduction team, includingKatherine Andrews, Gary Callahan,Angela DiBattista, Kim Friedman,Sara Strassenreiter, and Janice
Willett.
For Further ContactStefan DabSenior Partner and Managing DirectorBCG Brussels+32 2 289 02 [email protected]
Mohammed BadiPartner and Managing DirectorBCG New York
+1 212 446 [email protected]
Gero FreudensteinPartner and Managing DirectorBCG Frankfurt+49 69 91 50 [email protected]
Deepak GoyalPartner and Managing DirectorBCG New York+1 212 446 2800
Alenka GrealishTopic SpecialistBCG Chicago+1 312 993 [email protected]
Pedro Rapallo
Partner and Managing DirectorBCG Madrid+34 91 520 61 [email protected]
Carl RutsteinSenior Partner and Managing DirectorBCG Chicago+1 312 993 [email protected]
Olivier SampieriPartner and Managing Director
BCG Paris+33 1 40 17 10 [email protected]
Tjun TangSenior Partner and Managing DirectorBCG Hong Kong+852 2506 [email protected]
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