be informed be prepared - rrlc.org · 2019-06-12 · avoidance techniques • no smoking on...

Effective Crisis Management

Effective Crisis Management Copyright 2019 – All Rights Reserved

<…>

Session #: <…>Terminology and Concepts

Definitions and Examples

Be Informed – Be Prepared

2.1 Key Terminology

Language is confusing and its misuse can be dangerous during a crisis.

This field is still evolving, and terms are being used interchangeably in a non-precise way.

One recommendation: create and distribute a glossary of terms for your workplace. (FEMA does this!).


2.2 Languages Continue to Grow and Evolve

For proof – look at a dictionary.

Each year new technical terms and slang words –are added to American English. For example, in 2017 over seven hundred works were added to the Oxford dictionary.

Great for poets and writers.

Tough on lawyers, international treaties, and regulations since nuances mean a lot.

Example: ISO has dropped the term “stakeholder” and replaced it with “interested party.”


2.3 An Example of Confusing Language

What is Meant by a 100 Year Flood?

1 in 100 chance of happening.

500-year flood2 in 1000 chance of happening.

This is why you can have 2 “100-year floods” in a 10 year period.


Another example: A Light Year – a measure of distance (~9 trillion KM), not a measure of time!

2.4 Another Example

When putting together a report, what is more important?

Being Accurate?

or

Being Precise?

Is there a significant difference?


2.5 Accurate Versus Precise

On average these shots are accurate, but not precise.

These shots are precise, but not accurate.

What matters more?


2.6 Take the Word: Hazard

There are approximately 62 synonyms for this term.

Some of them are:

• Danger• Peril• Menace• Threat• Risk

all of which represent very different concepts.


But not in Miami

(We’ll deal with unusualsituations in a few slides!)

2.7 Hazards: Events That Pose a Danger


Snow storms are an ongoing

danger.

2.8 Threats: Hazards That Pose a Danger to You


Is the threat immediate or in the future?

Is the threat certain, likely, or unlikely?

Introduces the topic of probability.

2.9 The Future Can Be Estimated – But is Uncertain.

An application of probability and estimating stock market technical analysis. Uses mathematical techniques to predict the movement of stocks and otherbenchmarks.

• Sometimes very successful.

• Far from foolproof.

• Still requires some “added value” (human) judgement.


2.10 The Concept of Uncertainty: Can Be Confusing

ISO 31000: 2009 Risk Management: Principles and Guidelines, defines risk as:

“The effect of uncertainty on events.”

Calculating risk requires a more quantitative measure of uncertainty.

This concern was addressed by Dr. Frank Knight inRisk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)

Knight’s work ties together measurable doubt and consequences.


2.11 Some People Think Uncertainty and Risk Are Synonyms


Uncertainty is definable, bounded, measurable but still has a degree of predictability.

Example: Tossing Standard Dice*

• Number between 2 and 12.• Most likely a 7.• Never a 1, or higher than 12!

Uncertainty is related to likelihood – but different from it.

* Note: These tosses are statistically independent events, meaning previous outcomes do not influence future events.

Loosely defined as:

“Something doubtful or not known with total confidence.”

2.12 Unpredictable Versus Uncertain Events?

These factors significantly complicate our ability to deal with hazards and threats.

The best we can do is be flexible and as well-prepared as possible.


Unpredictable events are not foreseeable.

Uncertain events are foreseeable but, not very predictable.

All this can be very confusing!

2.13 Relationship Between Uncertainty and Likelihood

Likelihood

• An estimate (or anticipation) of the occurrence of an event.

• Mostly an emotional judgement based on experience and intuition, which aids in decision making.


2.14 There is a Lot More to Say About Uncertainty

• Structural Uncertainty. Predictions that lie beyond the capabilities of:o predictive modelso items with indefinite boundarieso lacking clarity of definitiono poorly understood relationships

• Value Uncertainty. Uncertainty comes from missing data components that are withheld, unavailable or unrecognized.

• Good advice from Gen. Patton.


2.15 Likelihood vs. Probability


Measuring uncertainty

• Likelihood is an estimate of uncertainty.

• Probability is a calculation of uncertainty.

• As a calculation, probability is a more useful measure of uncertainty.

Refining the estimate

• Use probability to judge and prioritize from a range of futures occurrences.

• Further refine your estimate by consulting past events via statistics.

The real danger are the risks you aren’t aware of! (see Black Swans concept).


2.16 Estimating

Use assessment techniques to identify possible dangers.

• Becoming an ever-more complicated process. New dangers appear everyday.

• Use history to develop an initial list of risks.

• Consult industry sources for an updated and expanded information.

2.17 Statistical Pareidolia - Continued

Be careful of numeric data.


Pie chart should equal 100% (193%)

2.18 Two More Terms - Chance and Luck

These concepts are related to uncertainty but are inherently unforeseeable.

The two concepts can be viewed as related but different perspectives.• We usually refer to favorable, unexpected events as luck.*

• Chance is a neutral to negative term. For example: a flat tire or winning the lottery.

Regardless, humans do attempt to exercise some control over these event.


* Although the concept of bad luck is also in common use.


<…>

Session #: <…>Risk

New Topic

2.19 Understanding Risk

Uncertainty of foreseeable events (probability), that carries a consequence.

1Dr. Frank Knight: author of Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921).

Risk = Impact X Probability


1


2.20 Upside and Downside Risk

One Set of Definitions:

• Downside Risk – the uncertainty associated with a lower than expected result or uncertainty as to the magnitude of a result.

• Upside Risk – the uncertainty associated with a greater than project result.

2.21 Techniques for Controlling Risk


Impact

Pro

bab

ility

Risk = Impact X ProbabilityFour Options:

Accept

Reduction Avoid

Transfer/Share


2.22 Risk Control Concepts

4 Options

Reduction Avoid

Transfer/ShareAccept

Impact

Pro

bab

ility


2.23 What Controls to Apply

Your estimate of impactand probability will determinehow you apply these four risk control strategies.

This eventually will define your risk appetite.

This diagram represents a very balanced attitude.

Reduction Avoid


Impact

Pro

bab

ility


2.24 Some Common Risk Control Tools

Reduction (Mitigation) Techniques• Backup or spare equipment.• Stocked supplies.• Cross-training/job sharing.

Avoidance Techniques• No smoking on facility grounds.• Severe weather closure guidelines.• Hiring background checks.

Transfer Techniques• Outsourcing/ contracted services.• Purchase insurance.• Raise capital, apply for grants, secure loans.

(The interest rate is one measure of estimated risk.)

27Effective Crisis Management Copyright 2019 – All Rights Reserved

2.25 Let’s …


2.26 Exercise: Risk Controls

Exercise – 15 minutes:

Make a list of some of the steps taken at your facility to control risk(s).

- Reduction Techniques

- Transfer Techniques

- Avoidance Techniques


2.27 Exercise 2: Please Share Your Good Ideas!

2.28 Introducing Another Risk Concept – Black Swans


Reduction Avoid


Impact

Pro

bab

ility

2.29 Unforeseen/Unrealized – But Should Have Been


Black Swans: A term created by MIT economist and former derivatives trader Nassim Taleb, a black swan event is one that's highly improbable and considered unforeseen.


2.30 Excellent Book!

Don’t confuse it with the movie of the same name!

2.31 Recent Examples


The 9/11 attacks on DC and NYC.

Superstorm Sandy.

2.32 Other Possible Black Swans


Coronal Mass Ejection

“Dirty Bomb”

Asteroid/Comet Strike

EMP Strike

2.33 New Black Swans Appear Monthly


Example: The Zika Virus

2.34 Black and Grey Swans


UnforeseeableEvents

UnprecedentedEvents

2.35 Grey Swans


Grey Swans:

Events for which there is no historical precedents – but the indicators were present and they should have been foreseeable.

2.36 Grey Swan Example


Strongest CME Ever Recorded - The Carrington Effect - 1859

2.37 A Risk Metaphor Taken Too Far?


2.38 What is the Biggest Risk We All Face?


2.39 Just a Few More Concepts



<…>

Session #: <…>Types of Plans

New Topic

2.40 Emergency Action Plan - EAP


Characteristics of an Emergency Action Plan (EAP):

• Primary focus is on human life and safety.

• Secondarily on asset protection.

• Embraces both evacuation and shelter-in-place.

• Requires an internal communication system.

• Hardcopies must be distributed to all employees (10 or more).

• Verbal briefing for smaller organizations.

• Addresses the shutdown of utilities that might endanger others and/or property.

• Special attention should be paid to high value assets (e.g., special collections, artwork, historic documents/vital records).

https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etools/evacuation/eap.html

https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etools/evacuation/eap.html

2.41 Emergency Management - EM


Characteristics of Emergency Management

• Superset of EAP.

• Includes initial monitoring of potential threats.

• Notification of all stakeholders, not just onsite staff and guests.

• Incident governance (Incident Command System).

• Initiation of crisis communications plan.

• Event and post-event security concerns.

• Next-step decisions.

• Sometimes referred to as Multi-hazard Mitigation Plan.


2.42 Different Types of Plans: COOP vs. COOG vs. ERM

These are different terms for emergency-oriented plans.

• Continuity of Operations: An emergency response plan designed to help government organizations respond to disruptions. The plan’s outline varies with the type of organization and jurisdiction. In the U.S., FEMA oversees the format and content of these plans at all levels.

• Continuity of Government: Is an equivalent term, although not used as readily. In general, one feature of these plans is that they call for areturn to normal operation in 30 days or less.

• Emergency Response Plan: A set of pre-tested actions designed to minimize the damage to people, facilities and other assets caused by various threats. ERM plan draw on some of the principles of COOP and COOG plans but have a different set of priorities since they are deigned to support businesses of various types including non-profits.

2.43 Disaster Recovery - DR


Focus of disaster recovery planning.

• Recovery planning designed to address technology and infrastructure losses.

• This area has the most overlap with cybersecurity since it deals with digital resources.

• A number standard incident responses are available including the use of alternative worksites (hot, warm, cold sites), quick ship programs, and many software options include different types of backup and information replication.

• Infrastructure includes specialty equipment and sometimes – special services such as outsourced processing or manufacturing.

• Other common procedures that should be considered include repairing, refurbishing, and cannibalizing equipment.

2.44 Business Continuity - BC


Business Continuity Planning – Sometimes called COOP (Continuity of Operations) orCOOG (Continuity of Government).

• Focus is to prevent the loss or deterioration of operations,not recovery after a failure.

• Budgeting for BC is driven by the steps/investment needed to prevent operations from falling below pre-determined levels. Often, in response to contract requirements.

• The two key metrics used to evaluate status are RTO (Recovery Time Objective) and RPO (Recovery Point Objective). Exceeding either is the definition of a crisis.

• This information is gained by conducting a Business Impact Analysis (BIA) which identified critical operations and sets individual RTO and RPO guidelines for each process.

• Third parties, supply/demand chain members, and utility services play a key role in the planning process.

• BC Plans give financial implications of downtime and outages, consideration.

2.45 Community Resiliency - CR


Community Resiliency:

• A holistic view of all the elements that make up a community.

• Communities should be defined in an expansive manner.

• Attention is given to post-event recovery and restoring ‘normal’services.

• This is a multi-disciplinary field and the focus of much current research and study.

• Various ‘institutions’ key a critical role in the restoring of servicesand recovery of public confidence.


<…>

Session #: <…>Some More Terminology

New Topic

2.46 More on the Concept of Resiliency

Defining resiliency is like nailing Jell-O to the wall.

You can do it – but not easily!

It is a term loosely used to describe everything from N+1 computer configurations to the characteristics of specially built buildings which allow them to resist various natural and human-caused disasters (earthquake proof, tsunami-ready).


* A brand of gelatin that is popular in the U.S.

*

Originally a term used in Material Science

2.47 Origin of the Concept of Resiliency


2.48 An Example of a Resilient Object


2.49 Recognizing Resiliency

Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court

Famous Quote in the U.S. by a legal expert:Justice Potter Stewart

“I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that.”

Jacobellis v. State of Ohio (1964)


2.50 Sometimes It’s Obvious

In 2010 there was a collapse at the San Jose copper-gold mine at Copiapo, Chile. Thirty –three people were trapped for more than two months.



1.9 Safety Briefing - Continued

2.52 Resiliency – An Emergent Property

Other examples: HealthSafetyQuality


2.53 Community Resiliency - New Area of Focus


2.54 Communities Take Different Forms


2.55 The Traditional View


2.56 Other Examples: Religious Groups


2.57 Political Parties


2.58 Ethnic Communities


2.59 Groups With Common Interests


2.60 Ultimately, Communities are United by Relationships

Specific

Needs

BusinessFederal

S & LG

Types of Relationship Chains

▪ Common location (e.g., Town)

▪ Economic ties (Trading Partners)

▪ Ethnic linkages (e.g., Hispanic Community)

▪ Faith-based relationships (Salvation Army)

▪ Other defining bonds & common interests



2.61 Summary

Work to develop a common lexicon.

Help educate your business partnersto improve operations in many ways.

Use this common language to further define your unique culture.

2.62 Any Questions


be informed be prepared - rrlc.org · 2019-06-12 · avoidance techniques • no smoking on...

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