bear stearns 2005 london health care conference may 10, 2005 the four seasons, london pacificare...
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Bear Stearns 2005 London Health Care ConferenceMay 10, 2005The Four Seasons, London
PacifiCare Health SystemsPacifiCare Health SystemsGregory W. ScottGregory W. ScottExecutive Vice President and CFOExecutive Vice President and CFO
The statements made during this presentation that are not The statements made during this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal securities laws, and may involve a meaning of the Federal securities laws, and may involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause number of risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations include, but actual results to differ materially from expectations include, but are not limited to, the risks discussed in the company's most are not limited to, the risks discussed in the company's most recent filings with the SEC, including the Form10K filed as of recent filings with the SEC, including the Form10K filed as of December 31, 2004. December 31, 2004.
Cautionary StatementCautionary Statement
A Fortune 200 company with:• $12 billion in revenue• 2.6 million commercial lives• 715K Medicare Advantage lives• 10 million specialty lives
Strategy of a growth company
PHS 8 health plan markets before acquisitionsPHS 8 health plan markets before acquisitions
PHS Only Markets2004 Markets – Pre-AMS Acquisition
Expansion through recent acquisitions
28 Additional medical states after American 28 Additional medical states after American Medical Security Group acquisitionMedical Security Group acquisition
PHS Only Markets
2005 Markets – Post-AMS Acquisition
AMS Only MarketsPHS & AMS Overlaps
A Fortune 200 company with 2005 goals of:• $14.1 billion in revenue• 2.7 million commercial lives• 743K Medicare Advantage lives• 11.8 million specialty lives
Expansion through recent acquisitions
Significant additional overlap with Pacific Life Significant additional overlap with Pacific Life acquisition acquisition
PHS Only Markets
2005 Markets - Post Acquisitions
AMS Only MarketsPHS/AMS/Pac Life Overlaps
1Q ‘05 Close 1Q ‘05 Close Target Target
• Adds a total of more than 370K ISG PPO lives = 15% commercial member increase
• Focus on important ISG market segment
• Expanded network of independent agents increases distribution for PHS products/services
• Commercial growth/diversification balances Medicare Advantage business
• Geographic expansion diversifies outside of CA
Benefits of AMS and Pacific Life acquisitions
Earnings growth
Net Income
$243
$139
$19
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
2001 2002* 2003 2004 2005 est.^
* Excluding effect of the adoption of FAS 142 relating to the amortization of goodwill* Excluding effect of the adoption of FAS 142 relating to the amortization of goodwill
^ Includes acquisition of American Medical Security Group & proposed acquisition of ^ Includes acquisition of American Medical Security Group & proposed acquisition of Pacific Life’s group health insurance business Pacific Life’s group health insurance business
$303$303
$370-$385$370-$385
2005 Guidance
• Commercial mbrshp. growth: 5.0%-6.0%• Medicare Advantage ending mbrs: 743K• Revenue increase:17.5%-18.5%• MLRs
• Consolidated = 84%-85%• Private Commercial = 81%-82%• Private Senior = 73%-74%• Government Senior = 87.5%-88.5%
• Gross Margins• Commercial = 18%-19%• Senior = 11.5%-12.5%• Specialty & Other = 38%-39%
• EBITDA: $750-$775 million• CFFO:$500-$525 million• Free Cash Flow: $320-$335 million• SG&A ratio: 12.75%-13.25%• Depreciation/Amortization: $89 million • Capital expenditures: $130-$135 million• Net Income: $365-$380 million• Average outstanding shares: 98.8 million• EPS: $3.70-$3.85
• Q2 = $0.92-$0.97• Tax rate: 38.8%
Includes effect of FAS 123R on equity based compensationIncludes effect of FAS 123R on equity based compensation
= 20%-25% = 20%-25% Net Income GrowthNet Income Growth
Planned evolution from a traditional health maintenance organization into a leading consumer health organization
HMODIVERSIFIED INSURANCE COMPANY
CONSUMER HEALTH
ORGANIZATION
PacifiCare Vision
On-Going Support -Care Management
•Disease Mgmt/ Web Admin•Health Credits
•Women’s Health•Flexible Spending Account•Ethnic Diversity Programs
Specialty Offerings•Pharmacy
•Dental & Vision•Behavioral
•Life/STD/LTD•Caregiver
•PAN
Front End Decision Support
•Quality Index Profiles•Benefit Selection Pricer•Health Risk Assessment
•Worksite/Web Based Tools•On-Line Enrollment
Low Cost High Cost
Signature Freedom
Signature Independence
SignatureValueSelect Hospital
PlanSignatureValue
Advantage
SignatureOptionsAdvantage
SignatureValueTraditional
PlanSignatureOptions
TraditionalPlan
HSA/SDHP
HMO/EPOPPO
Indemnity
PacifiCare offers a total solution
Specialty company growth- Pharmacy Benefit
Management Company (PBM)
630
1,130
1,640
2,070
2,560
3,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E
Mill
ions
Prescription Solutions’ Unaffiliated MembershipPrescription Solutions’ Unaffiliated Membership
Specialty company growth
Prescription Solutions' Revenue
$340 $394 $403
$704$472
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000A* 2001A* 2002A 2003A 2004A^ 2005E^
$ M
illio
ns
Internal External
* Breakout of internal vs. external revenue is not available prior to CY 2002.
^ Revenue increases related to a change in contracting methodology from the gross method to the net method for retail prescription drug transactions ~$50M in 2004, ~ $890M in 2005 mainly for PHS contract.
$1,647$1,647
Mail Service Revenue & Mail Order Penetration
$296$341 $328
$387
$537$602
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E
$ M
illio
ns
Specialty company growth
18.7%18.7%20.3%20.3% 18.4%18.4%
20.6%20.6%
26.0%26.0%
25.3%25.3%
Specialty company growth- Recent PBM recognition
Among MCOs: Top rated PBM on 5 of 8 evaluation factorsAmong MCOs: Top rated PBM on 5 of 8 evaluation factors - Recent - Recent Flashpohler Research surveyFlashpohler Research survey
Of 2nd tier PBMs, mentioned more than any other PBMOf 2nd tier PBMs, mentioned more than any other PBM - CSFB report, - CSFB report, 10/0410/04
Outperforms the industry in pharmacy management; and doing an Outperforms the industry in pharmacy management; and doing an excellent job regarding its primary functions: rebates, network excellent job regarding its primary functions: rebates, network
management, mail service and generic fill ratesmanagement, mail service and generic fill rates - - CapGemini CapGemini Benchmarking study, 2004Benchmarking study, 2004
#2 among all PBMs in mail order satisfaction#2 among all PBMs in mail order satisfaction – – PCMA 2004PCMA 2004
Rx Benefit Innovation Award-Rx Benefit Innovation Award- The Pharmacy Benefit Management Institute The Pharmacy Benefit Management Institute
Medicare opportunities
Medicare Advantage HMO/ Private Fee for Service
Part D Administration- Prescription Drug Plan (PDP)
Medicare Supplement
Medicare Advantage Regional PPO
Medicare opportunities
Medicare Advantage HMO
• Goals of Medicare Modernization Act
• Stabilize membership through increased benefits and provider payments• Nationwide ’04 MA Risk member increase = 98,500• PHS had 3 of 4 fastest growing plans in U.S.• PHS had 22K net adds in ’04; target growth in ’05 = 39K
• Position MA for growth in 2006• Broker distribution• Geographic expansion• Preferred provider relationships = Value Plans• Community & faith-based organization marketing• Small acquisitions • CMS demonstration project
Part D Administration- Potential market
National Market(Millions)
6.0
8.1
9.8
11.8
DualEligibles
LowIncome
GroupRetiree
All Other
PHS Assumed 2006 National Enrollment(Millions)
6.0
3.6
7.4
35.7 million35.7 million
17 million17 million
Medicare opportunities
+Group Retiree = ??M
Part D Administration- Model of potential market share
• PHS to offer benefits nationally, in all 34 PDP regions
• Assume 10 national/large PDPs + 3 regional PDPs in each region
• Assume equal distribution of 17 million assumed ’06 membership
Example:
Medicare opportunities
• Potential revenue excludes additional subsidies for low income, institutionalization, etc.
• PHS will issue specific guidance late 2005
6-8% $1.3-$2.2 billion with PBM mail order revenue
Pro Rata Annualized 1st Year
Market Share Revenue Opportunity
Medicare opportunities
Part D Administration- PHS capabilities
• Captive PBM w/ external focus (new mail order facility in planning)
• Broad distribution capabilities• State-of-the-art mail facility• National pharmacy network
• Risk-based business model
• 10 years of senior prescription drug data
• Managed care tools to control costs, improve outcomes
• Additional marketing channels• Direct TV/radio advertising• Direct mail• Recent acquisitions• Broker distribution