Beginner Version, sort of

Why Read Politics?

There is always a disad available Rewards effort—constant updating,

need for close reading Ability to access impacts that can

outweigh (timeframe, probability, magnitude) the case

Larnin’—helps you keep up on current events

Types of Politics Disads

Obama Agenda Good

Obama Agenda Bad

Elections

Top Level Considerations

Politics and fiat Public and/versus congressional

perception Perception and tradeoff between issues Spin—who controls perception of the

plan, and thus shapes public/congressional reaction Media Opposition party White House Members of president’s party

Credit & Blame

Does “normal means” require congressional involvement

Obama tends to get credit/blame Visibility Psychological needs of electorate (leadership) Overstating of importance in policymaking Perceptual unitary nature of presidency versus

other branches People often use alternate agents (courts,

congress, states, agencies) to avoid a lot of politics links

The KEY QUESTION is to whom hurt/benefitting interest groups will attribute

Internal Link: Cooperation/Bipart/Olive Branch Thesis: gestures that appeal to the

other party increase the probability that other legislation will pass

Bipart: Plan fosters cooperation, that spills over to other issues

Olive Branch: Plan is a sop to the GOP, invites horse-trading

Logrolling: Passing one policy “breaks the logjam” that prevents other policies from passing

Internal Link: Flip Flops Thesis: Presidents are punished by the

media, public, and members of the opposition party for changing positions on issues

Most “flip flop” links are describing Bush’s destruction of Kerry in the ‘04 presidential campaign—”I voted for the war funding before I voted against it”

Is not a particularly strong internal link argument.

Internal Link: Political Capital Gold standard of politics internals—most

other internal links can be explained/described in terms of political capital

Describes the president’s overall ability to woo congress, twist arms, offer favors, and issue threats to get particular agenda items

Controversial issues to consider Is it limited? Does it cross over between issues? Is it replenishable?

Internal Link: Public Popularity

Thesis: Presidents with high poll numbers are more likely to get their way in dealing with congress—representatives are afraid to challenge popular presidents

Is backed up by a ton of social science-y research (Edwards & Edwards, etc.)

Argument applies to both the policy and the president

Interest groups can shape public reaction to a policy

Internal Link: Winning/Losing Thesis #1—Winners Win: Presidents

that push through contentious policies develop reputations as being successful (winners), increasing the reluctance of congress to challenge them in the future

Recent example: Health insurance reform

Thesis was initially proposed by Norman Ornstein of AEI

Argument also works in reverse—Presidents who lose have a more difficult time forcing Congress into line in the future

Internal Link: Legislative Blocks

Thesis: Groups of like-minded lawmakers influence policy and react to plan action

Most basic level Democrats (unity) Republicans (cooperation)

Other groups Dem moderates Blue Dogs New Democrats GOP moderates

Internal Link: Specific Legislators

Thesis: Plans either anger or please influential lawmakers, decreasing or increasing the probability that they will cooperate with the President in the future

Influential lawmakers include Reid and Boehner (Senate & House leaders,

respectively) McConnell (GOP leader in Senate) Pelosi (Dem leader in House) McCain (GOP Senator) Brown, Collins, Snowe (GOP Senators, centrists)

Internal Link Genre: Lobby Backlash

Thesis: organized interest groups react to plans to impact the political process by either rewarding or punishing politicians through the use of campaign funding, direct advertising, and (proly) bribes

Can be VERY useful link arguments, especially because media/academics like to talk about their relative power

Will be important on this topic because public interest/reaction to most space policies will likely be minimal

Answering Politics

Uniqueness Links—takeouts and turns Internal links Impacts—takeouts and turns