Belarus: country focus

ETF’s Statistics Team

Torino Process Dissemination Event | 03.12.2019 | RIPO, Minsk

FOCUS AREAS

2

• Demographics and Ageing

• Economy and Employment

• Education and Human capital

CHALLENGING POPULATION DYNAMICS

3

Source: Belstat & WDI

20.8%14.9%

74.7%

78.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

9.00

9.10

9.20

9.30

9.40

9.50

9.60

9.70

9.80

9.90

10.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total (in millions) Youth (% of total) Urban (% of total)

Fig 1: Total Population, Youth & Urban Shares in Belarus (2010-2018)

REBOUNDING GROWTH RATES…

4

Source: Belstat

-3.8

-2.5

2.53.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

Fig 2: GDP growth rates in Belarus (2015-2018)

…WITH A DOMINANT SERVICE SECTOR

5

Source: % UNESCO

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2015 2016 2017 2018

Agriculture Industry Services

Fig 3: Gross value added in economic sectors in Belarus (2015-2018)

TRANSFORMATIONS IN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT

6

Source: Belstat

Fig 4: Employment (%) by broad economic sectors in Belarus (2010-2018)

10.4% 9.3%

34.2%29.8%

55.4%60.9%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Agriculture Industry Services

INCREASING EMPLOYMENT RATES…

7

Source: Belstat; Administrative data

Fig 5: Employment (%) in Belarus (2010-2018)

80.7%

83.1%

75.5%

82.2%

86.3%

84%

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Male Female

ENHANCED LABOUR FORCE…

8

Source: Belstat

Fig 6: Labour force (aged 15+) by education level (2018)

1.5

18.7

44.2

47.2

54.3

34.1

BY EU

at most compulsory (ISCED 0-2) upper/post-secondary (ISCED 3-4) tertiary (ISCED 5-8)

…DUE TO HIGH EDUCATION OUTCOME

9

Source: Belstat

Fig 7: Tertiary education attainment (% 30-34 years old) in Belarus & EU (2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

BY EU

Total Men Women

…AS A RESULT OF HIGH SPENDING IN EDUCATION

10

Source: Belstat

Fig 8: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2018)

4.9%

17.9%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% of GDP % of total public expenditure

GOOD EDUCATION & LABOUR OUTCOMES…

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Source: Belstat

Fig 9: Early leavers from education (% 18-24) in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 10: Not in employment, education or training

(NEETs - % aged 15-24) in Belarus & EU (2018)

0

5

10

15

BY EU

Total Men Women

0

5

10

15

BY EU

Total Men Women

Source: Belstat

HIGH BUT DECREASING NUMBER OF VET STUDENTS…

12

Fig 11: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 12: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in (2010-2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

BY EU

Total Men Women

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total

Male

Female

-27.3%

-26.7%

-28.1%

Source: Belstat Source: Belstat

POVERTY, INEQUALITY & HUMAN CAPITAL

13Fig 13: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2011-2017)

7.35.9

27.225.4

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Poverty (% pop) GINI Human Development Index

Poverty

Inequality

HDI

Source: Belstat for poverty; WDI for Gini and HDI

MAIN MESSAGES

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Demographics and Ageing:

• Declining youth population as a result of unfavourable population trends

Economy and Employment

• Rebounding economy in search of sustainable growth rates

• Increasing employment rates in a mainly industry and service based economy

Education and Human capital

• Favourable education outcomes leading to enhanced human capital

• High but decreasing numbers of VET students