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BELFAST METROPOLITAN

AREA PLAN –

RETAIL SECTOR STUDY

on behalf of

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT,

PLANNING SERVICE

June 2003

Volume 1:

Main Report

Bangor,

Ballyclare

CoresIPrimary

4&

Preface

The Department commissioned consultants [Colliers CRE] to carry out a study of retailing in the Belfast Metropolitan Area to inform the new Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan [BMAP] 2015. The last major retailing study carried out in the area took place in 1986 in order to inform the Belfast Urban Area Plan 2001.

The purpose of the study may be summarised as follows:

Undertake an assessment of the potential need for additional shopping floorspace within

the different retail sectors within the Plan area up to2015

Identify any catchment and sub-catchment changes, their present characteristics and

consider the implications for future retail planning;

An assessment of the two regional centres [Belfast and Sprucefield], Lisburn City Centre,

town centres and other centres including along Belfast's arterial routes to determine their

capacity to accommodate new development, necessary qualitative improvements, etc;

Advise on the extent and location of any additional floorspace which would be required

during the Plan period;

Undertake an assessment of the vitality and viability ["health check" indicators specified

in commission] of Belfast and Lisburn City Centres and the town centres of

Carrickfergus, Holywood, and Carryduff;

Undertake an assessment of the role played by the retail services and leisure sectors in

sustaining the vitality and viability of the city and town centres and make

recommendations on appropriate development control policies;

Identify, where appropriate, Primary Retail Retail Frontages and make as

appropriate detailed policy recommendations re. their protection.

The consultant's report and findings, which took into account the strategic guidance as outlined in the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland 2025 and in Planning Policy Statement 5 Retailing and Town Centres, are contained within this Technical Supplement and have informed the Plan Proposals. The Department has given careful consideration to the consultants' findings and has resolved in the main to follow their advice.

Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan 201 5 Floor

Andras House 60 Great Victoria Street Belfast BT2 7BB

November 2004

Colliers CRE June 2003

Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan: - Retail Sector Study Department of Environment, Planning Service

BELFAST METROPOLITAN AREA PLAN: RETAIL STUDY

CONTENTS PAGE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................... i

1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 1

Terms of Reference .................................................................................................................. 1

Background and Planning Context ........................................................................................... 3

Study Approach........................................................................................................................ 4

Structure of the Report ............................................................................................................. 6

2. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND POLICY FRAMEWORK............................................. 9

Regional Economic Context..................................................................................................... 9

Planning Policy Framework ................................................................................................... 10

Retail Hierarchy and Market Overview ................................................................................. 11

Consultations and Representations: Key Themes .................................................................. 15

3. SUB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS AND RETAIL TRADING

PERFORMANCE ................................................................................................................ 17

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 17

Survey Methodology and Catchment Area Definition ........................................................... 18

Assessment of the BMAP Retail Economy As a Whole ........................................................ 21

The Retail Contribution of the Six Council Areas ................................................................. 23

City and Town Centres........................................................................................................... 25

Sprucefield Regional Centre................................................................................................... 30

District Centres....................................................................................................................... 33

Centre Dominance.................................................................................................................. 35

Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour .................................................................................... 37

Leisure Trip Patterns .............................................................................................................. 39

4. VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF TOWN CENTRES .................................................... 42

The Role and Requirements of PPS 5 .................................................................................... 42

Approach to Measuring Vitality and Viability ....................................................................... 43

Belfast City Centre ................................................................................................................. 45



Ballyclare Town Centre.......................................................................................................... 56

Bangor Town Centre .............................................................................................................. 63

Carrickfergus Town Centre .................................................................................................... 70

Carryduff Town Centre .......................................................................................................... 77

Holywood Town Centre ......................................................................................................... 83

Lisburn City Centre ................................................................................................................ 89

Health Check Summary and Qualitative Need....................................................................... 96

5. QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: METHODOLOGY, DATA SOURCES AND

ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................. 100

Objectives............................................................................................................................. 100

Quantitative Need Methodology .......................................................................................... 100

The Household Telephone Survey ....................................................................................... 103

Principal Data Sources ......................................................................................................... 106

Interpretation and Definitions............................................................................................... 108

General Points ...................................................................................................................... 115

6. QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ............................... 116

Objectives............................................................................................................................. 116

Need Assessment: Comparison Goods................................................................................. 117

Need Assessment: Convenience Goods ............................................................................... 126

7. STUDY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS............................................. 129

Introduction and Consistency with the NIRRS .................................................................... 129

The Retail Development Planning Pipeline ......................................................................... 129

Context to Quantitative Retail Need Assessment................................................................. 132

Non-Bulky Comparison Goods ............................................................................................ 133

Bulky Comparison Goods .................................................................................................... 135

Convenience Goods.............................................................................................................. 137

Quantitative Retail Need: Policy Issues ............................................................................... 139

Retailing Along Arterial Routes and at Designated Local Centres ...................................... 145

Quantitative Retail Need: Summary..................................................................................... 148

Quantitative Retail Need vs Physical Capacity .................................................................... 148

Retail Boundaries, Cores and Frontages .............................................................................. 149

The Leisure Sector................................................................................................................ 153



Retail Services...................................................................................................................... 155

This Volume 1 is supported by two further volumes:-

• Volume 2: Appendices

• Volume 3: Quantitative Retail Floorspace Need Assessment

This report has been prepared by

The Research & Consultancy Department Colliers CRE

9 Marylebone Lane London W1U 1HL

and Colliers CRE

McKelvey House 25 Wellington Place

Belfast BT1 6GQ

Contact: Dr Richard Doidge Tel: 020 7344 6872


Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan: Retail Sector StudyDepartment of Environment, Planning Service

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Catchment Area The geographical area from which a centre attracts the majority of its

retail turnover.

Core Catchment Comprises the area (or zones) from which named centres or stores

attract the majority of generated retail expenditure (ie. 51% or more).

Primary Catchment Comprises the areas from which named centres or stores attract the

largest single flow of generated retail expenditure (note: this may be

less than 50%).

Secondary Catchment Comprises the remaining areas from which named centres or stores

attract 10% or more of generated retail expenditure.

Tertiary Catchment Comprises all remaining areas from which named centres or stores

attract 2% or more of generated retail expenditure.

Comparison Goods Consumer expenditure on non-food shopping.

Convenience Goods Consumer expenditure on food and grocery shopping.

Expenditure Leakage Proportion of retail expenditure generated within a centre’s (or store’s)

catchment area that is not spent within the centre (store).

Expenditure Retention The turnover of a centre (or store) expressed as a proportion of the total

amount of retail expenditure generated within its catchment area.

Headroom Expenditure The quantum of consumer expenditure that will be available within the

catchment areas of named centres to support additional retail

floorspace.

Market Share The proportion of generated retail expenditure in any area that is spent

at a particular centre or store.

Retail Capacity (or

quantitative need)

The amount of additional retail floorspace which will be supported in a

particular centre or area in the future given the growth in population

and consumer expenditure per head.



Household Telephone

Survey

A telephone survey of households located throughout the BMAP area

and its shopping hinterland, providing mainly quantitative data on

shopping trip patterns and expenditure flows for food and non-food

shopping.

Retailer Survey A questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of retail shops within

a centre, providing data on a range of attitudinal and store performance

criteria.

Shopper Survey Face to face street interviews with shoppers in a centre, providing

mainly qualitative data on trip characteristics and attitudes towards the

centre.

Pedestrian Flow Counts Counts of the number of people passing by a range of points

throughout a centre, providing data on shopper numbers and their

variation spatially.



i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Terms of Reference

1. Colliers CRE was instructed by The Department of the Environment, Planning Service in

November 2001 to carry out a study of retailing in the Belfast Metropolitan Area. The

purpose of the study is to inform the retailing aspects of the new Belfast Metropolitan Area

Plan (BMAP), which will cover the period up to 2015.

2. The BMAP area covers the six Council areas of Belfast, Carrickfergus, Castlereagh, Lisburn,

Newtownabbey and North Down, an area with a population of around 650,000. The Plan is

being prepared within the context of Shaping our Future – Regional Development Strategy

for Northern Ireland 2025. Its purpose is to guide and identify land use proposals and

policies throughout the Plan area.

3. The Operational Specification for this Retail Sector Study sets out the following main

objectives:-

• To assess the potential need for additional shopping floorspace within the BMAP area up

to 2015;

• To advise on the extent (if any) of the additional retail floorspace requirements;

• To assess the vitality and viability of Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and

Bangor, Carrickfergus, Holywood, Ballyclare and Carryduff town centres by preparing

‘health checks’ based on the indicators set out at paragraph 18 of PPS 5;

• To assess the role played by the retail, service and leisure sectors in sustaining the vitality

and viability of Belfast City Centre and the six BMAP defined town centres:-

• To identify, where appropriate, primary retail cores (or frontages) in Belfast City Centre

and the six BMAP town centres.



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Study Approach

4. In carrying out this study we have had regard to existing strategy and policy documents, in

particular:-

• the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland

• Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 5, Retailing and Town Centres

and also the recently completed

• Northern Ireland Retail Research Study.

5. Although some data was available prior to the commencement of this study, it soon became

clear that a substantial body of new information was required in order to satisfactorily meet

the objectives of the study in a robust manner. This new data falls into two broad categories

as follows:-

• we undertook four different types of survey:-

- a telephone survey of 3,658 households living throughout the BMAP area and its

shopping hinterland;

- a questionnaire survey of 1,473 shoppers within the seven defined BMAP area

town centres;

- a questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of 502 retail shops within the

same seven centres; and

- pedestrian flow counts at a series a points throughout each of the seven centres.

• we have incorporated the very latest and most accurate statistics available in respect of

the following:-

- retail floorspace of existing centres and shops throughout the BMAP area;



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- consumer retail expenditure per head for small areas within the BMAP area and


- 2001 Census population by ward and projections of population for small areas

based on a spatial disaggregation of the housing allocations set out in the

Regional Development Strategy; and

- major recent retail developments and floorspace in the pipeline within the

BMAP area (eg. retail planning approvals and schemes pending).

Consultations and Representations: Key Themes

6. In preparing this study we have also held consultations with a wide range of individuals and

organisations within the BMAP area. In addition, following the publication of the Belfast

Metropolitan Area Plan 2015: Issues Paper in 2001 The Planning Service invited public

submissions, representations and objections.

7. A huge amount has therefore been written and spoken about the future BMAP and its

implications for the retail economy. However, a number of reoccurring themes emerge from

these consultations and representations. The key points are as follows:-

• over the past 15-20 years the BMAP area has experienced a considerable amount of new

retail development, but the vast majority of this has been in non-city/town centre

locations;

• as a consequence Belfast City Centre is now considered to be under-provided in retailing

terms relative to its status as the ‘regional capital’, whilst many of the other town centres

are also exhibiting signs of a lack of retail under-investment;

• going forward, it is therefore generally accepted that a continuation of past trends (and

retail policy) is not an option and that a new, clear, balanced and dynamic BMAP is

required which will:-



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- strengthen the role of Belfast City Centre as the principal shopping destination in

Northern Ireland;

- protect and enhance the vitality and viability of existing city and town centres within

the BMAP area;

- accommodate the further development of Sprucefield in order that it fulfils its role

and potential as the only out of town regional shopping centre in Northern Ireland;

- encourage and support the development of new retailing provision in those parts of

the BMA which are suffering from a chronic shortage of shops to meet local

consumer needs;

- define the status and geographical boundaries of important shopping locations which

currently do not have an official designation; and

- redefine, if necessary, the boundaries of existing city / town centres and retail cores

to ensure consistency with their potential to accommodate additional retail

floorspace though to 2015.

Sub-Regional Shopping Patterns

8. We estimate that the BMA as a whole has a total retail turnover of £2,452 million, of which

almost half is in convenience goods and one-third in non-bulky comparison goods. Overall,

95% of the total retail expenditure generated by BMA households is spent within the area,

whilst 5% leaks out to competitor centres.

9. Four of the boroughs (Carrickfergus, Castlereagh, Newtownabbey and North Down) have

out-flows of non-bulky comparison goods expenditure which exceed the in-flows.

Therefore all four are a net exporter of such expenditure, which indicates that the scale of

non-bulky comparison retailing in adjoining Council areas is stronger and more attractive to

shoppers than that available locally. In practice, it is Belfast City which ‘sucks-in’

expenditure from the remaining boroughs.



v

10. Although sharing some similarities, the retail strengths of the individual districts do vary in

relation to bulky comparison goods. Belfast City is once again a net importer of

expenditure (£64 million), but this is much less than for non-bulky comparison goods.

Carrickfergus and Castlereagh again perform badly attracting in-flows of just £1 million and

£8 million respectively but having out-flows of £18 million and £30 million. Newtownabbey

Borough – due to the considerable attraction of the retail warehousing at the Abbey Retail

Park – attracts an in-flow of £50 million but loses just £11 million in out-flow. It is therefore

a net importer of £39 million of spend. The remaining two boroughs – Lisburn and North

Down – are close to ‘equilibrium’ having in-flows and out-flows of bulky comparison goods

expenditure which are almost the same.

11. Council Areas within the BMA generally perform well in relation to convenience goods and

are net importers of such expenditure. The exception is Carrickfergus, which is close to

equilibrium with in-flow and out-flow virtually identical.

Centre Dominance

12. Centres or retail locations which capture the largest single share of available consumer retail

expenditure within a zone we describe as being dominant within that area.

13. The relative dominance of Belfast City Centre for non-bulky comparison goods retailing is

very evident. The influence of the city centre extends to the edge of the BMAP area in every

direction, except to the south west, where its dominance is constrained by Lisburn City

Centre, and to the north east, where Bangor town centre dominates. Lisburn City Centre is

the only centre to dominate more than a single zone. Ballymena, Portadown, Newry and

Bangor town centres all dominate the local area in which they are located. Significantly,

none of the stand alone shopping centres or Sprucefield are sufficiently attractive to

dominate any zone for non-bulky comparison shopping.

14. The dominance map for bulky comparison goods confirms that trips for this form of

shopping are undertaken more locally and therefore 12 different centres / stores dominate the

household survey area, rather than just the seven which relate to non-bulky comparison

goods shopping.



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15. The dominance map for convenience goods shopping confirms that only three of the BMAP

centres – Belfast, Ballyclare and Carrickfergus – have sufficiently strong food shopping

offers to dominate their local areas in terms of market share and then it is just within their

own individual zones. The map confirms that dominance is fragmented across no less than

16 retail locations, with non town centre shopping centres and individual large out of centre

superstores proving attractive to shoppers.

Town Centre Health Checks

16. An important requirement to ensure the appropriate effectiveness and implementation of

government policy guidance is that the vitality and viability of town centres are assessed.

PPS 5 states that this is best undertaken as part of the preparation of development plans. PPS

5 helpfully defines vitality and viability as follows:-

• Vitality – is a measure of how busy a centre is

• Viability – is a measure of its capacity to attract ongoing investment for maintenance,

improvement and adaptation to changing needs.

17. In practice, measuring the vitality and viability of a town centre involves not just one

indicator but a series of them. PPS 5 sets out the indicators which should be used to carry out

town centre health checks in Northern Ireland.

18. Because PPS 5 does not provide any guidance as to the ‘weight’ that should be attached to

each of the indicators for measuring performance, our approach has been to assume equal

weights and to give each city / town centre a score of 1 to 5 for each of the indicators. We

have then calculated an average score.

19. In broad terms there appears to be three categories of city / town centre; Lisburn and Belfast

are generally healthy (scoring 3.9 and 3.6 respectively), Holywood and Bangor are rated

around average (scoring 3.1 and 3.0 respectively), whilst Carrickfergus, Carryduff and

Ballyclare are judged to be fairly unhealthy (scoring 2.7, 2.3 and 2.3 respectively). Overall,

therefore, the largest centres are healthier than the smallest. This appears to confirm the



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suggestion in PPS 5 that smaller town centres are most vulnerable to the impact of out of

centre retail development.

20. Our conclusions in respect of each centre and the qualitative need for new retail development

are as follows:-

• Belfast City Centre – generally fairly healthy, there is clearly a qualitative need for a

greater range of major stores which will distinguish it further from lower order town

centres and thereby facilitate it evolving into a true regional retail destination for

Northern Ireland.

• Ballyclare – generally fairly unhealthy, the development of a new Safeway superstore

may trigger the qualitative improvements which are also necessary in the centre’s

comparison goods shopping provision.

• Bangor – of average health, there is a particular qualitative need to provide the size and

quality of units to meet the requirements of multiple retailers which are seeking

representation in the centre.

• Carrickfergus – fairly unhealthy, the town centre suffers from a huge leakage of

comparison goods expenditure to both Belfast City Centre and the nearby Abbey Centre.

There is a qualitative need to provide appropriately located and configured units to attract

multiple retailers, whilst at the same time ensuring that a major food store presence in the

centre is maintained.

• Carryduff – fairly unhealthy, the centre lacks the scale, critical mass and diversity of

uses to truly perform as a town centre; in addition, it is unlikely to attract the range of

multiple retailers which it will need to enhance its overall retail attraction to consumers.

• Holywood – of average health, the town centre is relatively attractive and offers an

interesting mix of independent retail and leisure uses. There is the potential for it to

capitalise on its niche fashion/arts/crafts offer, although the benefits arising from a

continuing major food store anchor should not be underestimated.



viii

• Lisburn – generally fairly healthy, Lisburn is a vital and viable centre which has

continued to grow in strength despite the presence of the nearby out of town Sprucefield

Regional Shopping Centre. There appears to be no real qualitative need for additional

retailing provision.

Quantitative Retail Need: Approach and Main Assumptions

21. A major objective of this study is to estimate the quantitative need for additional retail

floorspace within the BMA through to 2015, the end date of the BMAP. The quantitative

assessment has been undertaken for each of the three main categories of retailing –

convenience goods, and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods – and is carried out for three

tiers of geography; the BMAP area as a whole, the six constituent Council Districts and,

within each District, the main city, town and district centres.

22. Although the assessment is necessarily detailed and relatively complex, we have at all stages

sought to achieve transparency in our calculations. We have followed a traditional approach

to estimating retail capacity, but for the first time in Northern Ireland have incorporated new

data on expenditure, floorspace, population and retail commitments that have hitherto been

unavailable. This should ensure that our assessment is up to date, comprehensive and robust.

23. Our assessment has also been undertaken within the context of the RDS and the recently

completed Northern Ireland Retail Research Study (NIRRS). In particular, we have sought to

achieve consistency with the latter study by adopting a number of its key assumptions.

24. In undertaking our quantitative need assessment, we assume that the BMAP area as a whole

will continue to attract its existing share of available consumer retail expenditure within

Northern Ireland for each of the three main product categories: convenience goods and non-

bulky and bulky comparison goods. The reason for adopting this important assumption is

that the RDS does not support the further concentration of retail facilities in the BMA at the

expense of the rest of Northern Ireland. We also assume that each constituent Council

District will retain its existing market share of available retail expenditure throughout the

Plan period till 2015.



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Quantitative Retail Need: Key Results and Policy Recommendations

Key Results

25. An important factor shaping our quantitative retail need assessment is the sheer scale of the

existing retail development pipeline – 238,000 sq m net of floorspace within the BMA and

an estimated turnover (by 2015) of more than £1,200 million. Within each of the three goods

sectors (convenience, non-bulky and bulky comparison goods) the number of hard

commitments (many of them again out of centre) on their own is enough to soak up virtually

all of the forecast growth in available retail expenditure within the BMA throughout the Plan

period, whilst the inclusion of soft proposals points to a huge over-supply of retail floorspace

in all goods sectors by 2015. This also assumes that none of the growth in retail expenditure

will be absorbed by the existing quantum of vacant retail floorspace stock throughout the

BMA – estimated by The Planning Service at around 116,000 sq m in mid 2001. Clearly, if

this occurred to some extent then the forecast over-supply of retail floorspace at the end of

the Plan period would be even higher.

26. Equally, however, it is important to bear in mind that not all of the retail schemes with

planning consent (hard commitments) may be brought forward and built. If this were to

happen on a significant scale and The Planning Service did not grant any new planning

consents, then the possibility of a short-fall in retail floorspace provision by the end of the

Plan period could not be ruled out. Furthermore, the possibility that some of the existing

retail floorspace in secondary areas could fall out of productive retail use during the Plan

period through obsolescence is also a factor here. This scenario does, however, highlight the

need to show some flexibility in retail policy going forward and also a requirement that The

Planning Service closely monitors retail vacancy rates and changes to the retail development

pipeline throughout the Plan period.

Policy Issues

27. The BMA has experienced around 400,000 sq m gross of new retail development over the

past 15 years. Much of this has been developed outside of traditional city and town centres,

resulting in many of them suffering from symptoms of retail and economic decline.

Moreover, despite this huge amount of new retail development, and with most forms of



x

retailing now provided for, the BMA (and indeed Northern Ireland as a whole) is in the

unfortunate position of having its two designated regional shopping centres – Belfast City

Centre and Sprucefield – performing significantly below their required level in the retail

hierarchy. In line with the guidelines set out in the RDS, the BMAP must therefore address

this issue and support further appropriate retail investment at these two locations, whilst also

supporting the vitality and viability of existing town centres by ensuring that they are

normally the preferred location for major new retail development.

Belfast City Centre

28. We are aware of, and in agreement with, the qualitative need to transform Belfast City

Centre into a retail destination commensurable with its role as a regional centre for Northern

Ireland. To this end, planning consent has already been granted to the Multi Development

Corporation (MDC) scheme (estimated 2015 non-bulky comparison goods turnover of £133

million) and this has been included in our quantitative assessment as a ‘hard’ commitment.

However, there are further major retail developments planned for the city centre, which we

have treated as ‘soft’ proposals.

29. If planning consent was granted to these existing soft proposals within Belfast City Centre,

then we estimate that the city centre’s share of available non-bulky comparison goods

expenditure within the BMAP area would rise from an estimated 42% in 2002 (the base

year) to probably in excess of 60% by 2015. Under this scenario it is possible that the higher

projected market share of Belfast City Centre would exceed those in a number of comparable

cities in Great Britain, although we recognise that it is difficult to make direct comparisons

due to big variations in the quality and quantity of retail competition available within these

urban areas.

30. The RDS seeks to support and strengthen Belfast City Centre as the leading regional

shopping centre in Northern Ireland. The BMAP must be consistent with this strategy. In this

context the proposals for further retail investment in Belfast City Centre should not be

resisted on retail policy grounds, although ultimately their development will only come about

if they have the support of the market. In practice, however, the scale of the potential

expansion of the city centre retail economy will, given the limit to quantitative retail need

within the BMA as a whole during the Plan period, be likely to divert some retail



xi

expenditure away from existing city, town and district centres. Such trade diversions would

be minimised if The Planning Service did not grant planning consent to other soft retail

proposals within the BMA and some of the schemes already in the development pipeline

with planning consent did not get built. We believe that, in practice, it is likely to be Lisburn

City Centre, the larger town centres such as Bangor, and the district centres which will

experience the largest diversions of trade, since they will compete most directly with the

kind of retailing proposed for Belfast City Centre. This is important because our health check

assessments confirm that it is the smallest town centres which are the weakest in retailing

terms and therefore least able to withstand any future losses of retail expenditure. In broad

terms, therefore, there appears scope to significantly enhance the retail economy of Belfast

City Centre, whilst continuing to protect the smaller (and weaker) town centres through a

policy of encouraging, where possible, new retail investment to locate within them.

Town Centres

31. We believe that planning policy should encourage new retail investment to locate in existing

city and town centres. However, the successful implementation of such a strategy will be

dependent on appropriately located and sized sites being brought forward for development

within the BMA. Any lack of such sites is likely to act as a barrier to the realisation of new

retail investment in town centres. Such a development constraint will only be removed (or at

least minimised) within town centres through the assistance of public sector involvement in

site assembly (eg. through vesting powers) in order to facilitate the necessary retail

expansion and enhancement of town centres. We therefore recommend that appropriate

actions are taken at the earliest opportunity to assist in the retail regeneration of town

centres. To this end, we would suggest that appropriate parties identify large scale sites in

town centres suitable for accommodating new retail investment.

32. We also believe that for particularly under-performing town centres, such as Carrickfergus,

significant sites must be made available that can incorporate the range and variety of retailers

required to make a quantum difference to their retail performance and attractiveness to

consumers.



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District Centres

33. Our recommendations in relation to city and town centres within the BMA do not preclude

the further expansion of existing district centres. However, the strong presumption should be

that any new retail development is directed towards nearby city and town centre sites or, in

relation to bulky comparison goods only, to Sprucefield. Accordingly, although our constant

market share ‘model’ forecasts a quantitative need for additional retail floorspace (mainly for

non-bulky comparison goods and convenience goods) at a number of the district centres

within the BMA, there are planning reasons for re-directing any identified need to nearby

city or town centres where the case for retail investment is stronger. Such an approach is

consistent with the planning guidance set out in the RDS and the conclusions of our town

centre health checks.

34. We believe that the district centres have fulfilled an important retail role in providing

consumers within the BMA with convenience and choice in relation to their shopping

patterns, and will continue to do so. We also believe that existing district centres can co-exist

with city and town centres and indeed fulfil a complementary role. Going forward, although

there is a strong presumption in favour of locating any new retail investment within city and

town centres, the further expansion of district centres may be considered in those instances

where a need for further retail development has been demonstrated and where suitable and

viable city and town centre sites are unlikely to be available within a reasonable period of

time, which will depend on local factors. In this context, we would recommend that the

statutory bodies play a pro-active role in retail site assembly within city / town centres.

Sprucefield Regional Shopping Centre

35. Our quantitative assessment at the BMA level indicates that the present retail development

pipeline for bulky comparison goods more than meets the identified quantitative need for

further provision. Our findings are therefore consistent with those of the NIRRS, which

concluded that ‘many of the urban areas of Northern Ireland are plentifully supplied with

retail warehousing…’ and ‘…that immediate moratoriums should be imposed on the

granting of any further planning permissions.’ However, as noted above, at the Council

District and centre level, there are a small number of locations in which modest levels of

localised need have been identified. Moreover, although our constant market shares approach



xiii

identifies the out of centre Sprucefield as having an over-supply of bulky comparison goods

shopping by the end of the Plan period in 2015, there is in fact a strong planning case for

supporting its further expansion.

36. The RDS identifies Sprucefield as a regional shopping centre (just like Belfast City Centre)

yet it is not performing to this designation in the retail hierarchy. This is confirmed by the

results of our household survey. In order to achieve its status as a regional shopping centre,

there is a need for further retailing to be developed on-site to make it more attractive to

consumers over a wide area.

37. The present planning consents, once implemented, should almost double the size of

Sprucefield and increase its annual retail turnover from £79 million to around £150-£170

million. However, even this will only get Sprucefield to within touching distance of the

largest BMAP district centres, which have annual retail turnovers of c. £180-£185 million.

Clearly in order to attain true regional shopping centre status and to attract trade from across

a wide area, further retail expansion beyond the existing retail commitments is likely to be

necessary. Although we consider that the need for additional convenience goods shopping

provision at Sprucefield will have been met with the planned Sainsbury’s superstore, there

will remain, in our view, a requirement for further comparison goods floorspace.

38. Our recommendation is that Sprucefield should be permitted to expand to a size of at least

75,000 sq m net of retail floorspace. This is around 50,000 sq m net larger than the existing

retail footprint and about 30,000 sq m net larger than the centre once the existing planning

consents have been built out. This should go a long way to ensuring that Sprucefield gains

the necessary critical mass and level of retail attractiveness for it to function as a true

regional shopping centre. This scale of retail provision is also likely to be necessary for

Sprucefield to distinguish itself from other city / town centres and the larger district centres

within the BMA. The target minimum size of 75,000 sq m net for Sprucefield compares to

118,000 sq m net in Belfast City Centre and 41,000 sq m net in Lisburn City Centre,

although this figure is likely to increase to some 62,000 sq m net if development under-

construction and hard commitments are included. In Great Britain the out of town regional

shopping centres occupy between 80,000 to 100,000 sq m net of retail floorspace.



xiv

39. We would, however, recommend that any additional comparison goods retail provision at

Sprucefield is restricted to bulky goods to avoid undue competition with city and town

centres. Furthermore, such provision should ideally be set aside for large trading format

stores only. This would distinguish it from a host of existing and proposed (standard) retail

warehouse parks within the BMA, and thus reinforce its role as a regional centre.

40. Additional land will be required to accommodate another 30,000 sq m net of bulky

comparison goods floorspace at Sprucefield. It is difficult to provide firm advice on the

quantum of additional land that will be required, since much will depend on the new access

road layout and servicing arrangements, and how these will integrate with the infrastructure

on the existing site. In addition, there is the trend towards mezzanine floors being introduced

into retail warehouses, which can result in significantly more retail floorspace being

accommodated on the same building footprint.

41. However, with these reservations in mind, assuming a net to gross ratio of 90:100, and

assuming further that the existing commitments will fully utilise the present site, we

recommend that 12 to 15 hectares (30 to 37 acres) of additional land should be allocated to

accommodate 30,000 sq m net of bulky comparison goods floorspace at single floor level.

This also assumes institutional standard car parking requirements and allowing for service

yards, landscaping and roadways.

42. However, if the new retail facilities were to include mezzanine levels then the area of land

required to accommodate 30,000 sq m net of retail could be reduced to around 8 to 10

hectares (20 to 25 acres).

43. In practice, it is possible that any retail development on part, or all, of any potential land

extension may not occur in the short to medium term. Nevertheless, any potential extension

of Sprucefield should remain solely for bulky comparison goods and no other format of

retailing.

Retailing Along Arterial Routes and at Designated Local Centres

44. Similar to other major urban areas in the UK, there is a significant amount of retail

floorspace within the BMA which is located outside of Belfast City Centre, the defined



xv

Town and District Centres and Sprucefield. Although some of this floorspace is taken up by

stand-alone superstores and retail warehouse parks, a lot is found along the Arterial routes

leading into Belfast City Centre and at a number of Local Centres.

45. In our view there is a requirement to strike a balance in policy terms between encouraging

and supporting proposals for retail development within designated areas along Arterial routes

and at designated Local Centres, and preventing large-scale retail schemes/stores more suited

to City Centres, Town Centres and District Centres. This is especially important in view of

this report’s conclusions on the limited capacity available to support new retail development

in the BMA during the Plan period.

46. There are sound planning reasons to encourage new retail provision within designated Local

Centres and at designated areas along Arterial routes. Many of these existing shopping

locations, for example, are located within Belfast Council District and serve relatively

economically deprived areas of the city. It is therefore particularly important that people

living in these areas have convenient access to shops either on foot or by public transport,

since many local residents may not have access to a car. Encouraging new retail facilities in

designated Arterial route locations and at Local Centres should therefore play a major role in

their regeneration both physically and economically, and help sustain the local communities

which they serve.

47. Although the requirement to maintain and enhance designated Local Centres and areas along

Arterial routes is important, it is equally important that these areas should not become

locations for large-scale retail development. We therefore recommend that the most suitable

policy for promoting an appropriate form of retail development within designated frontages

and nodes along Arterial routes and in designated Local Centres is by setting an upper limit

to the size of development that is permissible. This upper limit should relate to the size of

the proposed development as a whole, but consideration should perhaps also be given to

applying an upper size limit to individual retail units within a development, such that only

relatively small retail stores which serve local areas are provided for. In practice, this is

likely to favour the development of convenience rather than comparison goods shopping.

Clearly any proposal for retail development above these limits should be directed to nearby

City and Town Centres, where it will be consistent with the scale of existing retail provision



xvi

and the role and function of such centres, which tend to be focused primarily on comparison

goods retailing.

48. Lastly, coalescence of shops should be discouraged to prevent a “critical mass” of shopping

provision that could evolve to attract consumers living over a wide area. This form of

piecemeal development is therefore inconsistent with the planning objective that Local

Centres should serve local catchments.

Quantitative Need vs Physical Capacity

49. Within the BMA as a whole there are already enough retail commitments (schemes under

construction or with planning consent) to absorb virtually all of the new consumer retail

expenditure that will come available through to the end of the BMAP in 2015. In addition,

the range of proposals also in the development pipeline will, if they are approved and built,

increase the supply of retail floorspace to a level that will comfortably exceed demand in

terms of consumer spending volumes.

50. What this means, of course, is that there is already plenty of physical capacity within the

BMA as a whole to accommodate the required additions to retail floorspace provision, since

all of the approved applications for development (ie, the retail commitments) will have

identified appropriate sites for retailing. In other words, there are no physical capacity

constraints for the BMA retail property sector for the time-period covered by BMAP.

Accordingly, we do not believe there is a need to extend the boundaries of city and town

centres solely for the reason of accommodating future retail development. Similarly, there is

no need to identify (new) out of centre sites beyond those which already accommodate

existing retailing facilities and those linked to retail commitments.

51. Although there is no material need for any additional retailing beyond commitments within

the BMA as a whole, we do identify certain centres (or localised areas) which show a

quantitative need when we adopt the assumption of maintaining existing market shares of

available expenditure through the Plan period. In most cases the requirement for additional

retail floorspace is relatively modest and should be accommodated within the recommended

city / town centre boundaries. A potential exception is if the further expansion of the district

centres (out of centre shopping malls) was deemed necessary. This may require the footprint



xvii

of one or more of these locations to be extended. However, there are a number of town

centres which require the enhancement of their retail offers and it would be prudent to direct,

as far as possible, new retail investment to these locations instead.

Boundaries, Cores and Frontages

52. The Operational Specification requires us to make recommendations for the BMAP

concerning the geographical definitions of:-

• city / town centre boundaries;

• primary retail cores within city / town centres;

• protected retail frontages within city / town centres; and

• boundaries of the district centres.

53. Our report contains maps of each centre showing the required boundaries, cores and

frontages.

City / Town Centre Boundaries

54. This boundary is designed to define what geographically constitutes the city or town centre.

It should include all existing and planned uses which have a city / town centre function. In

relation to retail, the boundary encompasses the area from which we consider the

quantitative need (if any) for additional retail floorspace can be met during the Plan period.

We recommend a small number of changes to the boundary definitions set out in the Belfast

Metropolitan Area Plan 2015 (BMAP) Issues Paper.

Primary Retail Cores

55. A primary retail core defines the main focus of retail activity within a city or town centre,

and should be the area which encompasses new retail investment during the Plan period. It

therefore covers a smaller area than the city or town centre as a whole. We have defined

primary retail cores for Belfast and Lisburn City Centres and the town centres of Bangor,

Holywood and Carrickfergus. Within Belfast City Centre, for example, the primary retail



xviii

core includes the site of the MDC scheme, which has planning consent, and also the sties of

other existing major retail proposals.

Protected Retail Frontages

56. A protected retail frontage defines that part of the city / town centre which should be retained

in retail use. Accordingly, planning policy should resist the change of use of units in these

frontages away from retail, whilst existing non-retail uses in these frontages should be

encouraged through the planning process to revert to retail use when there is a change of

ownership and/or they become vacant. Protected retail frontages have been defined for

Belfast and Lisburn City Centres and Bangor town centre. In each case, all of the protected

retail frontage falls within the defined primary retail core for that city / town centre.

District Centre Boundaries

57. We have for the first time defined the boundaries for the district centres. In general, our

geographical definitions of a district centre are based on guidance in PPS 5. A common

feature at these locations is retail warehousing being located in close proximity to the malls.

Although not falling within the boundaries, the retail warehousing contributes to the

shopping catchment areas of these district centres and can play an important role in terms of

the overall retail function of these locations.

The Leisure Sector

58. The Government’s existing policy in Northern Ireland is to focus retail development in city /

town centres. PPS 5 makes it clear that this policy also relates to leisure uses, since such

facilities add to diversity and therefore contribute to a centre’s vitality and viability.

59. Although the leisure sector is not as crucial as retail in contributing to the vitality and

viability of the BMAP city/town centres, it nevertheless plays an important role and is just as

important in terms of future policy. The BMAP should therefore encourage a broad range of

city/town centre functions and uses, including leisure, where they contribute to the diversity

and vitality of a centre. We recommend that large scale leisure uses should ideally be located

in city / town centres.



xix

60. Within larger BMAP city/town centres, where there is healthy demand from retailers for

representation, an excessive concentration and/or accumulation of leisure uses should be

avoided at ground floor level in the principal shopping areas. We therefore recommend that

BMAP policy resists change of use from shop to leisure at ground level along the protected

retail frontages in Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and Bangor town centre.

Moreover, within the remainder of the primary retail cores in these three centres and within

the whole of the primary retail cores of Carrickfergus and Holywood town centres, we would

recommend that change of use from shop to leisure at ground level is only permitted if the

applicant can demonstrate that:-

• there would be no significant loss of retail floorspace at ground level;

• there would not be a clustering of non-retail uses along the frontage; and

• the overall area is not becoming too dominated by non-retail uses.

61. Within the remainder of the defined city / town centre boundaries in Belfast City Centre,

Lisburn City Centre, Bangor town centre, Carrickfergus town centre and Holywood town

centre, and within the whole of the defined city / town centre areas in Ballyclare and

Carryduff, we recommend that flexibility should be shown towards the location of leisure

uses. Change of use from shop to leisure in these smaller town centres, and in non prime

retail areas in the larger city / town centres, should be based on individual merits taking into

account factors such as the health of the city/town centre and the likely impact of the leisure

use on the centre’s vitality and viability.

Retail Services

62. PPS 5 confirms that town centres consist of a range of appropriate uses, which include retail

services. The location of a diversity of uses in town centres promotes accessibility for a large

section of the population and contributes to their vitality and viability.

63. Survey evidence confirms that retail services play an important role in all of the BMAP city /

town centres; consumers visit them frequently sometimes as their main reason for visiting a

city / town centre but more usually as part of a main shopping trip. The city / town centre



xx

locations of retail services facilitate linked trips to be undertaken, which contributes to

sustainability.

64. However, despite the important contribution which retail services make to town centre

vitality and viability, it is also important not to allow too many of them to cluster together,

particularly in frontages which are most attractive to retailers.

65. Our policy recommendations for retail services therefore closely mirror those for leisure,

except that applicants should not be required to demonstrate a quantitative need or follow the

sequential approach to site selection. Along protected retail frontages in Belfast City Centre,

Lisburn City Centre and Bangor town centre, we believe that the BMAP should resist change

of use from shop to retail service at ground level. Within the defined primary retail cores of

Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre, Bangor town centre, Carrickfergus town centre and

Holywood town centre (excluding protected retail frontages), change of use from shop to

retail service at ground level should only be permitted if the applicant can demonstrate that:-




66. Within the defined boundaries of city / town centres, except those areas already defined as

protected retail frontages and primary retail cores, flexibility should be shown towards the

location of retail services. Change of use from shop to retail service in these areas should be

based on individual merits taking into account factors such as the existing health of the city /

town centre and the likely impact of the retail service on the centre’s vitality and viability.



1

1. INTRODUCTION

Terms of Reference

1.1 Colliers CRE was instructed by The Department of the Environment, Planning Service in

November 2001 to carry out a study of retailing in the Belfast Metropolitan Area. The

purpose of the study is to inform the retailing aspects of the new Belfast Metropolitan Area

Plan (BMAP), which will cover the period up to 2015.

1.2 The BMAP area covers the six Council areas of Belfast, Carrickfergus, Castlereagh, Lisburn,

Newtownabbey and North Down, an area with a population of around 650,000. The Plan is

being prepared within the context of Shaping our Future – Regional Development Strategy

for Northern Ireland 2025.1 Its purpose is to guide and identify land use proposals and

policies throughout the Plan area.

1.3 The Operational Specif ication for this Retail Sector Study (reproduced in full at Volume 2,

Appendix 1) sets out the following main objectives:-

• To assess the potential need for additional shopping floorspace within the BMAP area up

to 2015:-

- by different retail sectors (eg. convenience goods, and non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods);

- to include the definition and analysis of the main catchment areas and the

retention and leakage of expenditure;

- to take into account any changes in expenditure, turnover and trading patterns.

1 Published by the Department for Regional Development in September 2001.



2

• To advise on the extent (if any) of the additional retail floorspace requirements and,

taking into account the shopping policies outlined in PPS 51 and the Regional

Development Strategy, indicate:-

- where it should be located and if, how and why it should be phased;

- to include a quantitative assessment of the two regional centres,2 the six

remaining town centres3 and main district centres and their physical capacity to

accommodate new retail development.

• To assess the vitality and viability of Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and

Bangor, Carrickfergus, Holywood, Ballyclare and Carryduff town centres by preparing

‘health checks’ based on the indicators set out at paragraph 18 of PPS 5.

• To assess the role played by the retail, service and leisure sectors in sustaining the vitality

and viability of Belfast City Centre and the six BMAP defined town centres:-

- to include advice on appropriate policies for the control of development within

these sectors.

• To identify, where appropriate, primary retail cores (or frontages) in Belfast City Centre

and the six BMAP town centres:-

- to advise if detailed policies are required (within the context of prevailing

Regional Policy) in order to ensure that these or additional areas / frontages are

retained in use.

1.4 Reflecting the range of study objectives outlined above, it should be borne in mind that this

report primarily provides a strategic assessment of retailing throughout the BMAP area and

does not directly address individual sites and/or development proposals.

1 Planning Policy Statement 5, Retailing and Town Centres, The Planning Service, June 1996. 2 Belfast City Centre and Sprucefield. 3 Ballyclare, Bangor, Carrickfergus, Carryduff, Holywood and Lisburn.



3

Background and Planning Context

1.5 The Department of the Environment, Planning Service has begun work on the BMAP. As

stated at paragraph 1.2, the Plan is being prepared within the context of the Regional

Development Strategy for Northern Ireland.

1.6 Prior to the preparation of this Plan, the last major retailing study of the Belfast area was the

Belfast Urban Area Plan Retail Study, which was prepared in December 1986 as part of the

Belfast Urban Area Plan 2001. Unlike the current BMAP this plan covered only the

continuous built-up area around Belfast and excluded settlements such as Bangor,

Carrickfergus and Ballyclare. At that time there was an estimated 755,000 sq m of gross

retail floorspace in the Belfast Urban Area (420,000 sq m net), of which around 237,000 sq

m (31%) was located in Belfast City Centre.

1.7 Since then an estimated 400,000 sq m gross of new shopping floorspace has been built in the

BMAP area. This has included:-

• major city centre developments (eg. Castlecourt);

• out-of-centre developments (eg. Sprucefield);

• extension to existing district centres (eg. the Abbey Centre); and

• new retail warehouse parks (eg. Boucher Road).

1.8 Running parallel to these developments the smaller towns within the BMAP area also

experienced improvements in both the quality and quantity of their retail offer.

1.9 Many national multiple retailers entered the Northern Ireland market for the first time during

the 1990s and this influx has helped underpin many new schemes.

1.10 Existing shopping policies are contained in the Regional Development Strategy, the Belfast

Urban Area Plan 2001 and PPS 5 (Retailing and Town Centres). PPS 5 now takes

precedence over the Belfast Urban Area Plan in relation to planning policy. In broad terms,

current policy is as follows:-



4

• there is no justifiable need for any new regional out-of-town shopping centres in Northern

Ireland;

• town centres are the preferred location for major comparison and mixed retailing

developments with a floorspace of over 1,000 sq m gross;

• major proposals for comparison or mixed retailing in out of centre locations will only be

permitted if suitable town centre sites are not available and where the development

satisfies specific criteria 1;

• the ‘health’ of town centres will be taken into account in assessing the impact of out of

centre developments; and

• the primary role of district and local centres is the provision of locally accessible

convenience goods shopping and this will be retained and where possible enhanced.

Study Approach

1.11 In carrying out this study we have had regard to existing strategy and policy documents, in

particular:-

• the Regional Development Strategy for Northern Ireland

• Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 5, Retailing and Town Centres

and also the recently completed

• Northern Ireland Retail Research Study2

1.12 We have also drawn on our wider expertise of retailing and experience gained in undertaking

health checks and retail need / capacity studies in many other parts of the UK. Specifically,

we have sought to combine experience in terms of:-

1 The criteria are set out in paragraphs 39 and 57 of PPS 5. 2 Prepared by Roger Tym & Partners for The Department for Regional Development, February 2003.



5

• Retail Research Consultancy

• In and Out of Town Retail Agency and Development

• Planning

• Consumer / Market Research

As such the study seeks to blend detailed research with relevant commercial expertise.

1.13 Although some data was available prior to the commencement of this study, it soon became

clear that a substantial body of new information was required in order to satisfactorily meet

the objectives of the study in a robust manner. This new data falls into two broad categories

as follows:-

• we undertook four different types of survey:-

- a telephone survey of 3,658 households living throughout the BMAP area and its


- a questionnaire survey of 1,473 shoppers within the seven defined BMAP area

town centres;

- a questionnaire survey of the managers / owners of 502 retail shops within the

same seven centres; and

- pedestrian flow counts at a series a points throughout each of the seven centres.

• we have incorporated the very latest and most accurate statistics available in respect of

the following:-

- retail floorspace of existing centres and shops throughout the BMAP area;1

- consumer retail expenditure per head for small areas within the BMAP area and

shopping hinterland;2

1 This data has been prepared by The Planning Service. 2 This data is derived in part from the Northern Ireland Retail Research Study and also from CACI.



6

- 2001 Census population by ward and projections of population for small areas

based on a spatial disaggregation of the housing allocations set out in the

Regional Development Strategy;1 and

- major recent retail developments and floorspace in the pipeline within the

BMAP area2 (eg. retail planning approvals and schemes pending).

1.14 In practice, much of the survey data is used to inform our ‘health checks’ of the seven

BMAP town centres, whilst the technical statistics feed mainly into our quantitative

assessment of retail need.

1.15 Running parallel with the survey work and the derivation and analysis of statistics, we have

also undertaken a wide range of consultations with relevant individuals and organisations

within the BMAP area. The list of consultees includes:-

• District Council officers

• Chambers of Commerce representatives

• Town Centre Managers

1.16 We gratefully acknowledge the co-operation of all organisations and individuals who have

assisted in the preparation of this study. However, whilst we have had full regard to the

views expressed, this report reflects our own conclusions.

Structure of the Report

1.17 Our report is in three volumes: Volume 1 (this volume) comprises the Consultants Report

and specifically addresses our Terms of Reference. Volume 2 contains the appendices

including the results of all the surveys which we have undertaken, supporting maps and

photographs, and technical details relating to the statistics which we have used. Volume 3

comprises our detailed quantitative retail floorspace need tabulations (spreadsheets) with

separate series addressing convenience goods and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods.

1 This data is drawn from the 2001 Population Census, the Regional Development Strategy and from special tabulations prepared by The Planning Service, BMAP team. 2 This information has been provided by The Planning Service, BMAP team.



7

1.18 In terms of this volume (the main report) Section 2 describes the economic context to the

study, the planning policy framework and the retail hierarchy within Northern Ireland. There

is also a brief commentary on the BMAP area retail market from a commercial perspective.

In addition we report on the main findings of our consultations with individuals and

organisations and identify the key issues for the future of retailing within the BMAP area.

1.19 In Section 3, we consider the present shopping hierarchy of the BMAP area and, drawing on

data from our household telephone survey, examine the current pattern of shopper behaviour

for the main types of retail goods. Using this information we quantify the retail trading

performance of the BMAP area as a whole and each of the six constituent Council Districts.

We also define and map the catchment areas of Belfast and Lisburn City Centres and the

other town centres within the BMAP area.

1.20 Section 4 contains our vitality and viability assessments of Belfast and Lisburn City Centres

and other BMAP town centres (the ‘health checks’). Each centre is addressed individually

using the indicators listed at paragraph 18 of PPS 5. Data derived from our shopper and

retailer surveys and pedestrian flow counts play an important role here. The section ends

with an overview of the qualitative need for new retail development in each centre.

1.21 In Section 5, we describe our approach to assessing the quantitative need for additional retail

floorspace within the BMAP area. The sources of data are identified, the methodology of the

‘model’ is described and our key assumptions are explained.

1.22 In Section 6 we look to the future and quantify the scope (or quantitative need) for additional

convenience goods and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods retail floorspace within the

BMAP area. This assessment is carried out for the forecast years 2005, 2010 and 2015.

1.23 In the light of our assessments of qualitative need (Section 4) and quantitative need (Sections

5 and 6), in the final Section 7 we present our recommendations to The Planning Service in

respect of the need for additional retail floorspace provision within the BMAP area through

to 2015 (the end date of the Plan). Our recommendations take into account, in broad terms,

the existing planning pipeline of retail commitments and proposals and the physical capacity

of centres and the BMAP area as a whole to accommodate the forecast retail floorspace



8

requirements. In this final section, we also set out our policy recommendations in relation to

leisure and retail service uses in city / town centres.



9

2. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND POLICY FRAMEWORK

Regional Economic Context

2.1 Northern Ireland is a relatively small and compact region with a 2001 Census population of

1,685,267, an increase of 107,431 from 1991. A radial pattern of main roads and railways

converge on the City of Belfast, the regional capital, which is located at the heart of a

metropolitan area of 646,550 people, 38% of the region’s total.

2.2 Although a number of key economic indicators suggest that Northern Ireland is one of the

smallest and poorest regions of the UK, for example:-

• the population of 1.7 million represents less than 3% of the UK total;

• Gross Domestic Product (GNP) per head is only 80% of the UK average (2000 figure);

• average gross weekly earnings are just 88% of the UK average (2000 figure), the lowest

of any region;

the affluence of the region in fact increased rapidly during the 1990s and is beginning to

‘catch up’ many other parts of the UK, as demonstrated by:-

• the numbers of employed having risen faster than in any other UK region;

• GDP per head having experienced the largest growth of any UK region; and

• unemployment having fallen the most of any region.

2.3 This recent ‘economic success’, underpinned at least in part by the Belfast Agreement

(1998) , has fuelled an expansion in the Belfast retail economy. The past 15 years have seen

around 400,000 sq m gross of new retail development in the BMAP area, while some

146,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace remains in the pipeline with planning consent and an

additional 92,000 sq m gross is still being considered by planners.



10

2.4 Looking ahead, economic indicators suggest that the economy of Northern Ireland is likely

to continue to grow. GDP, for example, is forecast to increase by 2.8% annually through to

2009 (UK only 2.2%), the third fastest growing region in the UK. On the back of this

economic growth, employment is expected to rise by 8.1% through to 2009 considerably in

excess of the 3.3% forecast for the UK as a whole.1.

Planning Policy Framework

2.5 Retail development in Northern Ireland has been guided since June 1996 by PPS 5, the

policies of which are outlined in broad terms in paragraph 1.10 of this report. More recently,

in September 2001, ‘The Regional Development Strategy: Shaping Our Future’ (RDS) was

adopted by the Northern Ireland Assembly and provides, for the first time, a regional policy

context for the preparation of Area Plans for sub-regional and local areas. Legislation will

require that the BMAP be “in general conformity with” the RDS.

2.6 The purpose of the RDS is to guide the future development of Northern Ireland to 2025. The

vision is to create an outward-looking, dynamic and liveable region and to sustain a high

quality of life for all.

2.7 The pivotal component of the Strategy is the Spatial Development Strategy (SDS), which is

designed to reinforce and strengthen the hubs, corridors and gateways to make the best use

of key regional assets to accommodate the forecast economic growth. The SDS seeks to

balance the advantages of concentrating on Belfast and its hinterland as the economic

powerhouse and centre of administration:-

• with reinforcing Londonderry’s role as the major economic centre in the north-west;

• with continuing the build-up of Craigavon in mid Ulster; and

• with the benefits of decentralisation based on a network of main and associated small

towns.

1 Source: Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, Regional Economic Outlook, Autumn 2000.



11

This will involve the promotion of city and town centres “by ensuring that they should

normally be the first choice for major new retail developments and confirming that there is

no justifiable need for any new regional out of town shopping centres in Northern Ireland.”

2.8 In short the SDS aims to achieve a balance of growth which will maintain a strong economic

heart in the wider Belfast “travel to work” hinterland, while encouraging decentralised

development at identified growth poles across the region. The SDS for Northern Ireland is

illustrated in Figure 2.1 overleaf.

2.9 In relation to the BMA, a balance is required between concentration and decentralisation.

Strategic Planning Guideline SPG-BMA 1 is “to create a thriving Metropolitan Area

centred on a revitalised City of Belfast”. Under this guideline the spatial development

framework seeks to “support and strengthen the distinctive role of Belfast city centre as the

leading regional shopping centre, in the context of a growing population and an expanding

economy in the region”. It also states that “the number, scale and nature of major out of

centre shopping developments will be considered in the context of the interests of consumers

in competition and choice; and the risk of such developments having an undesirable impact

on the city centre.”

2.10 Strategic Planning Guidance SPG-BMA 1 goes onto state this “precautionary approach will

be taken in relation to future retail development proposals based on the likely risks of

proposed out of centre shopping developments having an undesirable adverse impact on the

city centre shopping area as a whole or on existing shopping centres. This approach will

take account of the potential cumulative impact on the city centre of retail developments.”

Retail Hierarchy and Market Overview

2.11 The RDS sets out a settlement hierarchy, which is illustrated in Figure 2.2 overleaf. This

defines the BMA and Londonderry (the regional centre for the North West) as major

regional cities, below which there are a series of ‘main hubs’ such as Antrim, Ballymena and

Newry (identified as growth poles) and ‘local hubs’. In addition, PPS 5 identifies Sprucefield

as an out of town regional shopping centre, the only one in Northern Ireland.



12

2.12 The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study produces a retail hierarchy based on the existing

size of town centres in terms of retail floorspace. This hierarchy identifies Belfast as a ‘very

large’ centre followed by Lisburn (‘large’) and Sprucefield, Bangor and Newtownabbey

(‘medium’). Carrickfergus and Castlereagh are defined as ‘small’ centres. No other centres

in the BMA are listed.

Size Category Centre Very Large Belfast Large Londonderry Ballymena Craigavon Lisburn Medium Sprucefield Armagh Coleraine Cookstown Dungannon Larne Newry Newtownards Omagh Strabane Newtownabbey Bangor Small Antrim Banbridge Downpatrick Enniskillen Limavady Ballycastle Ballymoney Magherafelt Newcastle Warrenpoint Carrickfergus Castlereagh

Note: Town centres in bold fall within the BMA.

Source: Adapted from The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study, February 2003.



13

2.13 Both hierarchies, of course, confirm the leading role of Belfast City Centre as a retail

destination and also highlight the importance of a number of the other BMA town centres

within the context of the Northern Ireland retail market.

2.14 In addition to the gradual development of the town centres, Northern Ireland, and the BMA

in particular, has also experienced a significant amount of out of centre retail development.

This has taken the form of:-

• shopping centres

• retail warehouse parks

• stand alone food-based superstores

2.15 In the early days of shopping centre development the centres were anchored mainly by food

stores – initially indigenous companies, later the national multiples – but more recently there

has been a trend of such stores moving out into stand alone locations, thus releasing space

within the schemes for new comparison multiples and / or variety store retailers. The Abbey

Centre at Newtownabbey is a good example. All of this, of course, has tended to strengthen

the attraction of out of centre retailing relative to that within the traditional town centres.

2.16 Since the Belfast Agreement in 1998 the level of interest from national multiple comparison

retailers for representation within the Northern Ireland market in general, and the BMA in

particular, has steadily grown. Recent new arrivals in Belfast City Centre include WH Smith,

Next, JD Sports, River Island and Zara. Many of these have taken flagship stores. Other

retailers known to be looking for representation include Warner Bros Studios Store, whilst

Marks & Spencer is intending to open a number of its small high street Simply Food shops.

2.17 In general, the occupational market is now in an especially healthy state with demand

emanating from a much broader base representing all sectors of the retail market.

Occupational demand for prime retail property consisting either of enclosed shopping

centres, high streets or retail parks is reasonable with demand and supply being in

equilibrium. Retailers’ property requirements are selective and most have limited capital

expenditure budgets. There is no rush for floorspace and retailers are prepared to wait for

the right unit. Clearly though, there are exceptions; particularly within the BMAP area



14

where demand is strongest for representation within Belfast City Centre and (out of centre)

Sprucefield and the Bloomfield Shopping Centre at Bangor.

2.18 The last two years has seen a significant transfer of the ownerships of shopping centre and

retail park assets from traditional fund and institutional investors into private ownerships.

The more entrepreneurial asset management methods adopted by these private individuals

has already resulted in a number of schemes being more vigorously managed with extensions

either planned or implemented, most notably Bow Street Mall (Lisburn), Connswater

Shopping Centre (East Belfast) and Abbeycentre (Newtownabbey).

2.19 The extensions to these schemes have broadened the inherent retail offer thereby

strengthening the attraction of the immediate retail environment; this is in stark contrast to

the present lack of development activity within Belfast City Centre, although there are a

number of major proposals in the pipeline.

2.20 Throughout this retail study, we utilise a classification of centres that is consistent with those

defined within the emerging Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan (BMAP). The full classification

is set out below. The list of local centres is restricted to those which, in agreement with The

Planning Service, have been included within the quantitative retail need assessment (see

Sections 5, 6 and 7).

Classification Centre

Regional Centres Belfast City Centre Sprucefield (Out of Town Centre)

City / Town Centres

Ballyclare Bangor Carrickfergus Carryduff Holywood Lisburn City

District Centres (all located out of centre)

Abbey Centre Bloomfield Centre Connswater Centre Dairy Farm Centre Forestside / Upper Galwally Centre Kennedy Way Centre Hillview (under construction) Northcott Centre Park Centre Springhill Centre Westwood Centre Yorkgate Centre

Local Centres

Dundonald Village Glengormley Village Hillsborough Moira



15

Consultations and Representations: Key Themes

2.21 In preparing this study we have held consultations with a wide range of individuals and

organisations within the BMAP area (Volume 2, Appendix 2 provides a schedule of

meetings). In addition, following the publication of the Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan

2015: Issues Paper in 2001 The Planning Service invited public submissions, representations

and objections.

2.22 A huge amount has therefore been written and spoken about the future BMAP and its

implications for the retail economy. However, a number of reoccurring themes emerge from

these consultations and representations. The key points are as follows:-

• over the past 15-20 years the BMAP area has experienced a considerable amount of new

retail development, but the vast majority of this has been in non-city/town centre

locations;

• as a consequence Belfast City Centre is now considered to be under-provided in retailing

terms relative to its status as the ‘regional capital’, whilst many of the other town centres

are also exhibiting signs of a lack of retail under-investment;

• going forward, it is therefore generally accepted that a continuation of past trends (and

retail policy) is not an option and that a new, clear, balanced and dynamic BMAP is

required which will:-

- strengthen the role of Belfast City Centre as the principal shopping destination in

Northern Ireland;

- protect and enhance the vitality and viability of other existing city and town centres

within the BMAP area;

- accommodate the further development of Sprucefield in order that it fulfils its role

and potential as the only out of town regional shopping centre in Northern Ireland;



16

- encourage and support the development of new retailing provision in those parts of

the BMA which are suffering from a chronic shortage of shops to meet local

consumer needs;

- define the status and geographical boundaries of important shopping locations which

currently do not have an official designation; and

- redefine, if necessary, the boundaries of existing city / town centres and retail cores

to ensure consistency with their potential to accommodate additional retail

floorspace though to 2015.

2.23 In the remainder of this report, in responding to the requirements of the Operational

Specification, we present a huge body of new data and analysis which inform on each of

these key points.



17

3. SUB-REGIONAL SHOPPING PATTERNS AND RETAIL

TRADING PERFORMANCE

Introduction

3.1 The purpose of this section is to quantify shopper behaviour and to determine the present

retail trading performance of:-

• the BMAP area as a whole;

• each of the six constituent Council areas;

• the main BMAP city/town centres;

• the (out of town) Sprucefield Regional Shopping Centre; and

• the district centres

in relation to each of the three main broad categories of shopping:-

• convenience goods;

• non-bulky comparison goods; and

• bulky comparison goods.

3.2 The assessment draws mainly on the results of a household telephone survey which we

carried out during March / April 2002 within the BMAP area and its shopping hinterland.1 In

addition, we refer to retail floorspace, population and consumer expenditure data. The source

of this information and how it is used in the quantification of retail need is described in

Section 5.

3.3 We begin this section by quantifying the size and trading performance of the BMAP retail

economy for convenience goods, and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping. In

particular, we define for each category of goods:-

• the ‘pool’ of available expenditure;

• the amount of out-flow expenditure (leakage);

1 Full details of the household survey are given in Volume 2, Appendix 3.



18

• the proportion of retained expenditure;

• the amount of in-flow expenditure; and

• the total retail turnover of the BMA.

3.4 This is followed by a similar analysis for each of the six constituent BMA Council areas.

This assessment enables us to estimate the retail turnover of each District and its contribution

to the BMAP total.

3.5 We then undertake a more detailed analysis of shopper behaviour in relation to the seven

main BMAP city/town centres.1 For each centre we define (and map) the catchment area for

each main category of goods. We also quantify (and map) the dominant retail centres (and /

or stores) across the BMA and its shopping hinterland for each main goods category.

3.6 Lastly, we examine the main characteristics of shopper behaviour within the BMA and focus

on the role of leisure as a consumer activity and describe the importance of each of the main

towns for the principal types of leisure use.

Survey Methodology and Catchment Area Definition

3.7 In order to provide actual empirical evidence on shopping patterns within the BMA and the

role and function of its town centres, we have used the results of a major household

telephone survey. For this study we commissioned a survey of 3,658 resident households in

an area that encompassed the entire BMA and its immediate shopping hinterland. Structured

samples of households were drawn at random from 18 zones across the survey area. Volume

2, Appendix 3 describes the survey methodology and provides a definition of our

expenditure zones, summarises the main results and contains a copy of the questionnaire.

3.8 The main objective of the household telephone survey was to obtain comprehensive

information on consumer shopping trip patterns and expenditure flows for convenience

goods (food) and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods (non-food) shopping within the

region. Our approach permits the following important assessments to be carried out:-

1 Belfast City Centre, Ballyclare, Bangor, Carrickfergus, Carryduff, Holywood and Lisburn City Centre. .



19

• for any given centre we are able to not only estimate its retail turnover, but also identify

where these sales originate from across the sub-region;

• for any given local area (or zone) we are able to not only estimate the amount of available

expenditure, but also identify the volume and source of in-flow expenditure and the

volume and destination of out flow expenditure.

3.9 Agreement on the survey methodology was reached with The Planning Service prior to

commencement of the fieldwork. It was agreed that the survey would concentrate on

households living within 18 zones,1 each defined in terms of wards.2 Fourteen of these zones

cover the BMAP area and the remaining four zones comprise the immediate shopping

hinterland. These 18 zones are identified on the map and diagram in Figure 3.1a and 3.1b

overleaf respectively. The use of zones enables the analysis of flows of retail expenditure

throughout the sub-region and permits the individual shopping catchments for different

centres and broad categories of goods to be defined.

3.10 For the BMAP household survey, structured interviews were carried out, by telephone, with

the person responsible for the main shop in a total of 3,658 households to ascertain their

actual shopping patterns and their views. The aim was to achieve around 200 interviews in

each zone.3 The normally accepted minimum size for statistical purposes is around 100

interviews per zone. Adopting what is standard practice, we opted for a consistent absolute

sample in each zone, rather than one proportional to zone population. This is because the

latter approach would have meant a significantly larger number of interviews overall to

ensure a minimum absolute number of interviews in the less densely populated zones, which

was not considered essential.

3.11 By adopting a consistent number of interviews within the zones irrespective of the

population size of each zone, we accordingly over-sample in some zones and under-sample

in others, while maintaining the same overall sample size. At the analysis stage of the

1 It was subsequently agreed with The Planning Service that Zone 4 ‘Ards and Down’ should be subdivided into two zones 4a Ards and 4b Down. This decision was taken in order to improve the accuracy of the survey results across what was otherwise a large and unusually configured area. 2 Volume 2, Appendix 3B lists the wards constituting each zone. We were careful to ensure that each of the six BMAP Council areas could be defined by one or more complete survey zones. This consistency permits detailed analysis of the trading performance of each District as a whole. 3 Except Zone 1 (Antrim, Ballymena and Larne) where it was agreed with The Planning Service that a target of 400 interviews would be more appropriate.

HOUSEHOLD SURVEYZONES

Hinterland1 Antrim, Ballymena, Larne2 Craigavon3 Banbridge, Newry & Mourne4A Ards 4B Down

BMAP Area5 Carrickfergus6 Newtonabbey North/Ballyclare7 Newtonabbey South8 Lisburn urban9 Lisburn rural10 Castlereagh West/Carryduff11 Castlereagh East12 North Down West/Holywood13 North Down East/Bangor14 Belfast North15 Belfast West16 Belfast South17 Belfast East18 Belfast Central

7

FIG. 3.1a: 2002 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA

1

6 5

7

14

15

816

18

17

12 13

11

10

4B

4A

9

2

3

BALLYMENA

ANTRIM

LURGAN

BANBRIDGE

NEWTOWNARDS

LARNE

PORTADOWN

BANGOR

DOWNPATRICK

NEWRY

BALLYCLARE

CARRICKFERGUS

LISBURN

Lough Neagh

Fig. 3.1b: DIAGRAM SUMMARISING THE SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AREA, BMA, CONSTITUENT COUNCIL AREAS AND OUR HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ZONES

Entire Survey Area BMAP Household Survey Area

BMA / BMA Hinterland BMA Shopping Hinterland Belfast Metropolitan Area

District

Antrim, Ballymena and Larne

Council Areas

Craigavon Council Area

Banbridge and Newry & Mourne Council Areas

Ards Council Area

Down Council Area

Carrick-fergus Council Area

Newtown-abbey Council Area

Lisburn Council Area

Castle-reagh Council Area

North Down Council Area

Belfast City Council Area

Zone(s) Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4a Zone 4b Zone 5 Zones 6

& 7 Zones 8

& 9 Zones 10 &

11 Zones 12 &

13 Zones 14 to

18



20

survey, the individual samples are then “weighted” to their appropriate representation within

the survey population to produce an overall result which is representative of the survey area

as a whole. Without the weighting, the less densely populated zones would have a

disproportionately large effect on the overall survey results, contrary to their population size.

The whole principle of weighting therefore allows the characteristics of less densely

populated zones to be accurately represented without the unnecessary cost of a grossly

inflated sample.

3.12 Within the survey area as a whole, we sought to determine the catchment areas of the main

town centres using survey data on expenditure patterns. Our analysis permits the core,

primary, secondary and tertiary catchments (where they exist) to be determined for each

centre. For the purpose of this study we have adopted the following definitions:

− core catchment: comprising those zones from which a centre attracts the majority of

generated expenditure (i.e. 51% or more);

− primary catchment: comprises those zones from which a centre attracts the largest

single flow of generated expenditure (this may be less than 50%);

− secondary catchment: comprises those remaining zones from which a centre attracts

10% or more of generated expenditure;

− tertiary catchment: comprises all remaining zones from which a centre attracts 2% or

more of generated expenditure.

3.13 Beyond the tertiary catchment, the full results show that certain centres may attract even

smaller amounts of expenditure from additional zones. Such expenditure flows will typically

account for very low proportions of overall centre turnover and can, for most analytical

purposes, be ignored. We have therefore excluded these zones from our wider definition of a

catchment area.



21

Assessment of the BMAP Retail Economy As a Whole

3.14 Using the results of the BMAP household survey we now consider the retail trading

characteristics of the BMAP retail economy and its six constituent Council Areas. We

quantify the present performance of retailing and the relative contribution of each District in

relation to each of the main categories of goods. In particular, we are able to determine the

volume of consumer retail expenditure in-flows and out-flows to and from each BMA

constituent District and for the BMA as a whole. This analysis has been undertaken

separately for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods, and for convenience goods. For the

BMA the data is presented in Figures 3.2 to 3.4, whilst similar diagrams for each District

(and type of goods) are presented in Volume 2, Appendix 7.

3.15 By relating the scale of these expenditure in-flows and out-flows to the known ‘pools’ of

available expenditure generated within the BMA (and each constituent District), we are able

to estimate the total retail turnover of the BMA (and each District) for each of the three main

types of goods. In addition, by expressing turnover as a proportion of available expenditure,

the levels of expenditure ‘retention’ can be estimated for the BMA and each District.

3.16 In relation to non-bulky comparison goods (Figure 3.2 overleaf), we estimate that the

BMA is currently attracting an in-flow of £213 million, but that some £58 million leaks out

to competitor centres in other areas. Therefore, the BMA is, as one would expect, a net

importer of £155 million of non-bulky comparison goods spend annually, which represents

23% of the total non-bulky comparison spend generated within the BMA. These figures

indicate that the BMA currently retains around 92% of available non-bulky comparison

goods expenditure and has an estimated annual non-bulky goods retail turnover of some

£838 million.

3.17 Figure 3.3 overleaf summarises the trading characteristics of the BMA in relation to bulky

comparison goods . We estimate the BMA currently attracts an in-flow of £82 million,

whilst £23 million flows out to competitor centres. Therefore the BMA is also a net importer

of £59 million of bulky comparison goods spend annually, which represents 16% of the total

available bulky comparison goods expenditure generated within the BMA. This pattern of

expenditure flows is consistent with the considerable attraction of the BMA as a retail

destination. On the basis of these figures, we estimate the BMA retains 94% of available

BMA

Available Expenditure £683m

- Out-flow Expenditure £58m

= Retained Expenditure £625m

+ In-flow Expenditure £213m

= Retail Turnover

£838m

Fig 3.2:

BELFAST METROPOLITAN AREA (BMA):

RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: NON-BULKY COMPARISON GOODS, 2002

£58m

out-flow

£213m

in-flow

BMA





= Retail Turnover

£427m

Fig 3.3:


RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: BULKY COMPARISON GOODS, 2002

£23m

out-flow

£82m

in-flow



22

bulky comparison goods spend, marginally higher than the figure for non-bulky goods. Our

estimate for the annual bulky goods retail turnover of the BMA is £427 million, around half

that for non-bulky goods.

3.18 The pattern of expenditure flows for convenience goods is summarised in Figure 3.4

overleaf. We estimate an in-flow of £88 million and an out-flow of £27 million, which

indicates the BMA is a net importer of £61 million of convenience goods spend annually,

which represents 5% of the total available convenience goods expenditure generated in the

BMA. These figures confirm that the BMA currently retains 98% of available convenience

goods spend annually, a higher proportion than for either non-bulky or bulky comparison

goods. Our convenience retail turnover estimate for the BMA is £1,187 million.

3.19 Combining the three goods categories indicates that the BMA has a total retail turnover of

£2,452 million, of which almost half is in convenience goods and one-third in non-bulky

comparison goods. Figure 3.5 summarises the split between the three categorie s of goods.

Overall, 95% of the total retail expenditure generated by BMA households is spent within

the area, whilst 5% leaks out to competitor centres.

Figure 3.5: BMA Retail Turnover Disaggregated by Category of Goods

49%

34%

17%

Convenience Goods

Non-Bulky Comparison Goods

Bulky Comparison Goods

BMA





= Retail Turnover

£1187m

Fig 3.4:


RETAIL TRADING CHARACTERISTICS: CONVENIENCE GOODS, 2002

£27m

out-flow

£88m

in-flow



23

The Retail Contribution of the Six Council Areas

3.20 We now turn to the six constituent Council Areas and assess their contribution to the retail

economy of the BMA and their trading relationships with each other. Our assessment is

carried out in relation to the three main categories of goods. Volume 2, Appendices 7a, 7b

and 7c contain diagrams illustrating for each borough the expenditure in-flows and out-

flows for non-bulky and bulky comparison and convenience goods respectively.


3.21 Four of the boroughs (Carrickfergus, Castlereagh, Newtownabbey and North Down) have

out-flows of non-bulky comparison goods expenditure which exceed the in-flows. Therefore

all four are a net exporter of such expenditure, which indicates that the scale of non-bulky

comparison retailing in adjoining Council areas is stronger and more attractive to shoppers

than that available locally. In practice, it is Belfast City which ‘sucks-in’ expenditure from

the remaining boroughs.

3.22 Belfast City, for example, has an in-flow of £266 million and an out-flow of just £65 million,

which makes it a net importer of £201 million of spend. In comparison, Lisburn Borough

attracts an in-flow of £80 million and leaks £37 million, making it a net importer of £43

million of non-bulky comparison goods expenditure, 21% of the spend volume of Belfast

District. The general pattern that emerges is that these two Council Areas are the strongest

retail destinations for non-bulky comparison goods expenditure and draw in trade from the

remaining boroughs.

3.23 These retail dynamics are also reflected in the variation in retained non-bulky comparison

goods expenditure across the BMA (Figure 3.6 overleaf). Belfast City and Lisburn Borough

retain 75% and 69% of their non-bulky spend respectively, while Carrickfergus,

Newtownabbey and Castlereagh retain just 10%, 30% and 32% respectively. North Down,

located some distance to the east, performs somewhat better and retains 59% of its available

expenditure.

3.24 The non-bulky comparison goods shopping patterns within the Boroughs are analysed

further in Figure 3.7 overleaf. The graphs provide a range of criteria to assess the relative

Fig 3.6:

PROPORTION OF RETAINED NON-BULKY COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE BY DISTRICT

01020304050607080

Belfas

t City

Lisbu

rn

North

Down

Castle

reagh

Newtow

nabb

ey

Carrick

fergu

s

%

Fig 3.7:

NON-BULKY COMPARISON GOODS:RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL DEMAND (POPULATION & EXPENDITURE) AND RETAIL SUPPLY (FLOORSPACE & TURNOVER) BY DISTRICT, 2002

Belfast District

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Prop

orti

on o

f B

MA

Tot

al

Carrickfergus District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

orti

on o

f B

MA

Tot

al

Castlereagh District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

orti

on o

f BM

A T

otal

Lisburn District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal

North Down District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal

Newtownabbey District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal

Population Available Expenditure Retail Floorspace Retail Turnover



24

trading performance of each borough and their contribution to the BMA retail economy. The

criteria show each borough’s share of BMA population and expenditure (which drive

demand) and floorspace and turnover (which relate to supply). The analysis again highlights

the dominant role of Belfast City within the BMA; it accounts for 60% of total non-bulky

comparison goods floorspace and 55% of non-bulky comparison retail turnover. These

shares are significantly higher than the City’s share of BMA population (43%) and available

non-bulky expenditure (38%).

3.25 In contrast to Belfast City, the other five Borough’s all show (with the partial exception of

Lisburn in relation to floorspace) shares of turnover and floorspace (retail supply) below

their shares for population and expenditure (retail demand). This confirms the general

pattern of trading identified earlier; that Belfast City attracts a net in-flow of non-bulky

comparison goods expenditure at the expense of the other BMA boroughs. Lisburn Borough

manages to more than make up for the leakage of spend to Belfast City by attracting a

significant amount of in-flow expenditure from outside the BMA. This is due to its

geographical location and the strength of its retail offer, which includes Lisburn City Centre

and Sprucefield.


3.26 Although sharing some similarities, the retail strengths of the individual boroughs do vary in

relation to bulky comparison goods. Belfast City is once again a net importer of expenditure

(£64 million), but this is much less than for non-bulky comparison goods. Carrickfergus and

Castlereagh again perform badly attracting in-flows of just £1 million and £8 million

respectively but having out-flows of £18 million and £30 million. Newtownabbey Borough –

due to the considerable attraction of the retail warehousing at the Abbey Retail Park –

attracts an in-flow of £50 million but loses just £11 million in out-flow. It is therefore a net

importer of £39 million of spend. The remaining two boroughs – Lisburn and North Down –

are close to ‘equilibrium’ having in-flows and out-flows of bulky comparison goods

expenditure which are almost the same.

3.27 This broad pattern of expenditure flows is reflected in Figure 3.8 overleaf, which shows the

levels of retained bulky comparison goods spend for each Council Area. In contrast to non-

bulky comparison goods, Newtownabbey and North Down perform much better, whilst

Fig 3.8:

PROPORTION OF RETAINED BULKY COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE BY DISTRICT

0102030405060708090

Belfas

t City

Newtow

nabb

ey

North D

own

Lisbu

rn

Castle

reagh

Carrick

fergu

s

%



25

Castlereagh Borough does a little worse. Belfast City and Carrickfergus perform about the

same. Generally, the levels of retained expenditure are particularly low in Carrickfergus and

Castlereagh Boroughs.

3.28 Bulky comparison goods shopping provision and performance within the BMA are analysed

further in Figure 3.9 overleaf. This confirms that bulky comparison goods floorspace and

turnover is more spread around the BMA than that of non-bulky comparison goods, which is

mainly concentrated within Belfast City. The graphs again highlight the shortfall in bulky

goods provision in Carrickfergus and Castlereagh Boroughs, both in absolute terms and

relative to the other BMA Council Areas.

Convenience Goods

3.29 Council Areas within the BMA generally perform well in relation to convenience goods and

are net importers of such expenditure. The exception is Carrickfergus, which is close to

equilibrium with in-flow and out-flow virtually identical. This unusual trading pattern is

possible because as discussed at paragraph 3.18, the BMA as a whole attracts a significant

net in-flow of food spend, which is spread across the Council Areas.

3.30 Unlike for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods, most available convenience goods

expenditure is spent locally, with all Boroughs except Castlereagh achieving retention levels

of 80% or more (Figure 3.10 overleaf). This confirms that convenience goods shopping

provision is much more evenly spread around the BMA relative to population and

expenditure (Figure 3.11 overleaf). This ensures most trips for food will be short, which is

consistent with our survey findings. Our analysis indicates that although there is a significant

out-flow of food spend from Castlereagh to (mainly) Belfast City, this loss is more than

compensated by the huge in-flow of spend to the Borough from households living outside

the BMA and within Belfast City. This indicates that there is a signif icant number of cross

borough food trips between Belfast City and Castlereagh.

City and Town Centres

3.31 We now turn to defining the shopping catchment areas for each of the seven main BMAP

town centres. Using the results of the household telephone survey (and the methodology set

Fig 3.9:

BULKY COMPARISON GOODS:RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL DEMAND (POPULATION & EXPENDITURE) AND RETAIL SUPPLY (FLOORSPACE & TURNOVER) BY DISTRICT, 2001

Belfast District

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Prop

orti

on o

f B

MA

Tot

al


0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

orti

on o

f B

MA

Tot

al


0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

orti

on o

f BM

A T

otal

Lisburn District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal

North Down District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal


0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal


Fig 3.10:

PROPORTION OF RETAINED CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE BY DISTRICT

0102030405060708090

North D

own

Lisbu

rn

Carrick

fergu

s

Newtow

nabb

ey

Belfas

t City

Castle

reagh

%

Fig 3.11:

CONVENIENCE GOODS:RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL DEMAND (POPULATION & EXPENDITURE) AND RETAIL SUPPLY (FLOORSPACE & TURNOVER) BY DISTRICT, 2002

Belfast District

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Prop

orti

on o

f B

MA

Tot

al


0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

orti

on o

f B

MA

Tot

al


0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

orti

on o

f BM

A T

otal

Lisburn District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal

North Down District

0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal


0%

10%

20%

30%

Prop

ortio

n of

BM

A T

otal




26

out at paragraph 3.12), we define separate catchments for each of the following goods

categories:-

• non-bulky comparison goods;

• bulky comparison goods;

• convenience goods.

Belfast City Centre

3.32 The extent of the catchment area of Belfast City Centre for non-bulky comparison goods is

shown in Figure 3.12 overleaf. Belfast’s core catchment consists of three central zones

(zones 14, 15 and 16) from which it attracts between 57% and 72% of available expenditure.

Belfast’s primary catchment is far wider and consists of the remainder of the BMAP area,

with the exception of zones 8 and 9 (Lisburn Urban and Lisburn Rural) and zone 13 (North

Down East / Bangor) together with zone 4b (Down). The secondary catchment of Belfast

City Centre extends well beyond the BMA and includes zones 1, 2, 4a, 8, 9 and 13 (Antrim,

Ballymena & Larne; Craigavon, Lisburn Urban; Lisburn Rural and North Down East /

Bangor). The city centre’s tertiary catchment extends to a single zone 3 (Banbridge, Newry

and Mourne).

3.33 Figure 3.13 overleaf shows that Belfast City Centre’s bulky comparison goods catchment

is much more concentrated than its non-bulky catchment. Belfast’s retail offer is not

sufficiently strong for it to generate a core catchment, while its primary catchment comprises

only the two central zones (zones 16 and 18). Furthermore, its secondary catchment is

restricted to six zones, four of which are also centrally located. All of the remaining

household survey area (except zone 2) comprises the city centre’s tertiary catchment. The

relatively modest trade penetration of the city centre across the survey area for bulky

comparison goods is mainly due to the strong performance of the out of centre retail

warehouse parks which are located throughout the BMAP area. Particularly notable in this

regard are the Boucher Retail Park to the south of the city centre, Sprucefield and the Abbey

Retail Park (part of the Abbey Centre) at Newtownabbey to the north.

3.34 Figure 3.14 overleaf shows that Belfast City Centre’s convenience goods catchment area is

extremely limited. The city’s food stores (Iceland, Marks & Spencer (food hall) and Tesco



27

Metro) are not sufficiently strong to generate a core catchment, although zone 18 (Belfast

Central) falls within our pr imary catchment definition. In this small area, the modest food

retail offer of the city centre retains an estimated 44% of available convenience goods

expenditure. The city centre does not generate a secondary catchment, while its tertiary

catchment is limited to eight zones from which it draws between 2% and 7% of available

convenience goods expenditure. A key factor in limiting the city centre’s convenience goods

catchment is that most householders choose the destination for their food shopping on the

basis that it is close to home or convenient. This in part contributes to the relatively good

performance of small local shops for food shopping, which account for 8% of total available

convenience goods expenditure in the household survey area. The large non-town centre

food superstores also play a major role, however. Tesco, Bentrim Road, Lisburn; Sainsburys,

Forestside; Tesco, Knocknagoney Road; and Tesco, Bloomfield Centre, Bangor are

particularly strong and draw 5.1%, 4.3%, 3.4% and 3.2% of total available food expenditure

within the survey area respectively. In other words £16 out of every £100 of food

expenditure by residents within the wider survey area is spent at just these four stores.

Ballyclare Town Centre

3.35 Comparison retailing is not a key function of Ballyclare town centre. For both non-bulky

and bulky comparison goods shopping, the centre’s influence is limited to a single tertiary

catchment with its own Zone 6 (Newtownabbey North/ Ballyclare), from which 9% and 6%

of available expenditure is drawn respectively (Figures 3.15 and 3.16 overleaf). The main

outflows of non-food spend are to the Abbey Centre at Newtownabbey and to Belfast City

Centre.

3.36 Ballyclare’s major role is as a centre for convenience goods shopping. The retail offer is

sufficiently strong to generate a primary catchment in its own Zone 6 (Newtownabbey North

/ Ballyclare), but competition nearby limits its influence to this area (Figure 3.17 overleaf).

Within this zone, the town centre retains 45% of available food expenditure.

Bangor Town Centre

3.37 For non-bulky comparison goods Bangor town centre has a primary catchment consisting

of Zone 13 (North Down East / Bangor), from which it attracts 36% of available spend and a



28

secondary catchment in Zone 12 (North Down West / Holywood), from which it draws 15%

of spend and a tertiary catchment covering zone 4a (Ards) (Figure 3.18 overleaf). The town

centre’s influence is curtailed by the successful Bloomfield Centre, which has a significant

29% non-bulky comparison goods market share in Zone 13 and 18% in Zone 4a (Ards),

around four times that of Bangor town centre. For bulky comparison goods , Bangor town

centre has a secondary catchment within its own Zone 13 from which it attracts 17% of

spend and a tertiary catchment comprising Zones 11 (Castlereagh East), 12 (North Down

West / Holywood) and 4a (Ards) from which it draws 2%, 7% and 4% of available

expenditure respectfully (Figure 3.19 overleaf).

3.38 Bangor town centre’s convenience goods catchment is limited to a tertiary catchment within

its own Zone 13 (North Down East / Bangor) from which it draws 7% of available

expenditure (Figure 3.20 overleaf). The town centre’s influence is heavily restricted due to

the phenomenal success of the Bloomfield Centre, which contains a large Tesco and a Marks

& Spencer. This shopping centre attracts 79% of available food spend within Zone 13 (North

Down East / Bangor), and a significant 18% in Zone 4a (Ards) and 14% in Zone 12 (North

Down West / Holywood).

Carrickfergus Town Centre

3.39 Comparison shopping is not the primary retail function of Carrickfergus. For both non-

bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping, the town centre generates a secondary

catchment limited to its own Zone 5 (Carrickfergus), from which it attracts just 11% and

13% of expenditure respectively (Figures 3.21 and 3.22 overleaf). There is considerable

leakage of non-bulky comparison spend to Belfast City Centre, whilst for bulky goods most

flows to the nearby Abbey Centre.

3.40 Carrickfergus performs much better in relation to convenience goods shopping. The town

centre generates a core catchment in Zone 5 (Carrickfergus) and a tertiary catchment in

Zones 7 (Newtownabbey South) and 1 (Antrim, Ballymena and Larne), from which 4% and

2% of available expenditure is drawn respectively (Figure 3.23 overleaf). The principal

attractor is the Tesco, which on its own retains virtually half of all food spend generated

locally in Zone 5.



29

Carryduff Town Centre

3.41 Although defined as a BMAP ‘town centre’, the quantity and quality of the retail offer at

Carryduff is insufficient for it to make a material impression on the shopping landscape. For

example, the town centre does not generate any form of catchment for either non-bulky or

bulky comparison goods shopping, with virtually all of the locally available expenditure

flowing to Belfast City Centre, the Forestside Centre, and (for bulky comparison only) the

Boucher Retail Park.

3.42 Carryduff performs little better in relation to convenience goods , although a SuperValu

supermarket ‘anchors’ the centre. The town centre generates only a tertiary catchment across

Zones 10 (Castlereagh West / Carrduff) and 4b (Down) (Figure 3.24 overleaf). The nearby

Forestside Centre acts as a powerful competitor attracting 46% of available food spend from

zone 10 (Castlereagh West / Carryduff).

Holywood Town Centre

3.43 The comparison retail economy of Holywood town centre has little impact on shopper

behaviour. For both non-bulky and bulky comparison goods the town centre only

generates a tertiary catchment in its own Zone 12 (North Down West / Holywood), from

which it attracts just 7% of available expenditure for both types of goods (Figures 3.25 and

3.26 overleaf). Belfast City Centre attracts a significant amount of local spend for non-bulky

comparison goods, whilst the Boucher Retail Park and the Homebase at Bangor attract most

of the expenditure leakage for bulky goods.

3.44 For convenience goods shopping, Holywood performs a little better and generates a

secondary catchment in its own Zone 12 (North Down West / Holywood), from which it

retains 21% of available expenditure (Figure 3.27 overleaf). This is mainly due to the Tesco

supermarket. Almost 80% of locally generated food spend therefore leaks out to competitor

centres / stores. The most important are the Tesco at Knocknagoney Road and the

Bloomfield Shopping Centre at Bangor.



30

Lisburn City Centre

3.45 Lisburn easily ranks second to Belfast City Centre as an attractor of consumer comparison

goods expenditure. In relation to non-bulky comparison goods the city centre generates a

core catchment extending across Zones 8 and 9 (Lisburn Urban and Lisburn Rural), from

which it attracts between 56% and 58% of available expenditure respectively. Although it

has no primary catchment, Lisburn’s secondary catchment comprises Zones 3 and 4b

(Banbridge, Newry & Mourne and Downpatrick) from which it attracts between 11% to 17%

of spend respectively. A further five zones forms its tertiary catchment – Zones 1, 2, 10, 15

and 16 – from which it attracts between 2% and 8% of available non-bulky comparison

expenditure (Figure 3.28 overleaf). For bulky comparison goods , Lisburn city centre’s

retail offer is not sufficient to generate a core catchment, but it does extend to a primary

catchment within its own zone 8 (Lisburn Urban) from which it draws 38% of available

spend. Zone 9 (Lisburn Rural) comprises its secondary catchment, from which it draws 26%

of expenditure. Lastly, Lisburn City Centre has a relatively large tertiary catchment, which

comprises Zones 3, 4b, 10, 15 and 16 from which it draws between 3% and 6% of available

expenditure (Figure 3.29 overleaf).

3.46 The Lisburn City Centre retail economy is much weaker in relation to convenience goods

shopping, primarily due to the success of out of centre food stores in the area. As a result, the

city centre generates only a secondary catchment comprising of zones 8 (Lisburn Rural) and

9 (Lisburn Urban), from which its draws 16% and 10% of available expenditure respectively

(Figure 3.30 overleaf). The Tesco at Bentrim Road, Lisburn dominates local food shopping

behaviour capturing market shares of 47% and 41% within Zones 9 and 8 respectively.

Sprucefield Regional Centre

3.47 PPS 51 defines Sprucefield as Northern Ireland’s only purpose built, out of town regional

shopping centre. It is described as serving a wide catchment area due to its strategic location

on the regional transport system. PPS 5 confirms that there is no justifiable need for any

further regional out-of-town shopping centres in Northern Ireland.

1 Planning Policy Statement 5, Retailing and Town Centres, The Planning Service, June 1996 (Paragraph 35).



31

3.48 Sprucefield currently contains 23,566 sq m net of retail floorspace. This total includes a

Marks & Spencer store of around 11,000 sq m with the balance taken up by retail

warehouses. However, planning consents have been granted for:-

• an extension to the existing Marks & Spencer;

• a new Sainsbury superstore; and

• additional retail warehouse units.

3.49 On completion this will add some 21,550 sq m net of retail floorspace to Sprucefield –

almost doubling the size of the centre – bringing its total salespace up to around 45,000 sq m

in a limited number of large units.

3.50 At the present, however, there is strong evidence that Sprucefield is not performing as a

regional shopping centre as defined in PPS 5. For example, the NIRRS1 concluded – on the

basis of survey data – that it has a “relatively limited trade draw and not what would

normally be expected of a regional centre.”

3.51 This finding is reinforced by the results of the household survey undertaken for this study.

Figures 3.31, 3.32 and 3.33 define Sprucefield’s catchment areas for non-bulky comparison

goods, bulky comparison goods and convenience goods respectively. In relation to non-

bulky comparison goods , Sprucefield merely generates a tertiary catchment comprising of

five zones (Zones 2, 8, 9, 15 and 16). Its retail influence is overshadowed by Lisburn City

Centre within its immediate hinterland and by Belfast City Centre further afield. However, it

should be noted that this type of retail floorspace at Sprucefield has been controlled by

restrictions attached to planning approvals. For bulky comparison goods , Sprucefield is a

little more dominant, but its influence still falls well short of that of a regional shopping

centre. The centre again fails to generate a core catchment, although zone 9 (Lisburn Rural),

from which it attracts 31% of available expenditure, falls within its primary catchment. In

addition, Zone 8 (Lisburn Urban) forms a secondary catchment, while the centre’s tertiary

catchment extends to zones 4B and 15 (Down and Belfast West).

1 The Northern Ireland Retail Research Study, Roger Tym & Partners, February 2003 (Paragraph 2.18).



32

3.52 Sprucefield’s retail influence is also modest in relation to convenience goods . Its catchment

extends to just four zones. Zone 9 (Lisburn Rural) forms a secondary catchment and zones 8,

15 and 16 comprises its tertiary catchment. Within its immediate hinterland, Sprucefield is

overshadowed by the collective attraction of other out of town food superstores.

3.53 The evidence confirms that Sprucefield’s existing catchment area for all three main

categories of goods is concentrated geographically, while its level of market penetration,

even with its immediate hinterland, is low. Accordingly, it does not currently perform

anywhere near its rank of regional shopping centre.

3.54 Although the existing retail offer as a whole trades close to equilibrium, the relatively small

size of the centre (c. 24,000 sq m net) means that its 2002 annual retail turnover was around

£79 million. This compares to some £522 million in Belfast City Centre – the other regional

centre – and £184 million in nearby Lisburn City Centre. Moreover, the annual retail

turnover of Sprucefield is also much less than four of the BMAP district centres;

Forestside/Upper Galwally, the Bloomfield Centre and the Abbey Centre all have estimated

2002 turnovers of around £185 million, whilst Connswater’s annual sales are £101 million.

The annual retail turnover of Sprucefield relative to Belfast City Centre and other selected

centres is highlighted in Figure 3.34.

Figure 3.34 Retail Turnover of Sprucefield vs Selected Other Centres

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Belfas

t City

Centre

Fores

tside/

Upper

Galwally

Bloom

field DC

Lisbu

rn City C

entre

Abbey

Centre

Conns

water

Spruc

efield

Est

imat

ed R

etai

l Tu

rno

ver,

200

2 (£

m)

Belfast City Centre

Lisburn City Centre

Connswater

Regional Centre

City/Town Centre

District Centre



33

3.55 Sprucefield in terms of its retail turnover and composition is in fact more akin to an out of

town premier (fashion) retail park in mainland Britain (eg. Fosse Park, Leicester) rather than

a regional shopping centre, such as Bluewater, Meadowhall or The Trafford Centre. Out of

town regional shopping centres in GB take the form of enclosed shopping malls, selling

predominantly non-bulky comparison goods, and typically turnover £400 million plus per

annum. Thus in terms of design, retail offer and turnover, GB out of town regional shopping

centres are more similar to the BMAP district centres than Sprucefield.

3.56 We conclude that Sprucefield has to get substantially larger and become more attractive to

shoppers if it is to perform close to its rank of regional shopping centre. We set out our

policy recommendations in respect of Sprucefield, including the minimum quantum of retail

floorspace which should be permitted on the site, at paragraphs 7.34 to 7.44.

District Centres

3.57 PPS 51 states that the primary role of district (and local) centres is “the provision of locally

accessible convenience goods”. In addition, they also often provide “services to the local

community”. In practice, however, within the BMAP area, the term district centre has been

used to describe the out of centre shopping locations that have emerged during the past 10-

15 years either as a result of the development of purpose built schemes or through piecemeal

extensions and/or the redevelopment of existing facilities. Below the level of district centre

in the shopping hierarchy are a wide variety of types of local shopping, including local

suburban centres such as Dundonald, Glengormley and Dunmurry, village centres such as

Hillsborough and Moira; arterial routes, small groups of shops and isolated individual shops.

3.58 Twelve district centres have been defined as part of this study as follows:-

• Abbey Centre • Kennedy Way • Bloomfield Centre • Northcott Centre • Connswater • Park Centre • Dairy Farm • Springhill Centre • Forestside/Upper Galwally • Westwood Centre • Hillview2 • Yorkgate Centre

1 At paragraph 49. 2 Hillview District Centre is currently under construction. Therefore, unlike the other 11 district centres, it does not feature in the household survey results.



34

3.59 All 12 district centres are located out of centre and predominantly take the form of an

enclosed shopping mall. It is this feature which, in part, distinguishes them from the many

out of centre retail warehouse parks within the BMA. A number of the district centres such

as Forestside/Upper Galwally, the Abbey Centre and Connswater have retail warehouses

selling primarily bulky comparison goods located nearby, although in most cases these are

located outside of the district centre boundary. Generally, the district centres are located on,

or close to, main roads and are easily accessible by private car. All on-site car parking is

mainly at surface level. The district centres are also accessible by bus.

3.60 The household survey undertaken as part of this study has enabled the catchment areas and

geographical market penetration of all 11 district centres to be quantified. The detailed

market shares of each centre by zone for convenience goods, non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods are set out in full as part of the later quantitative need assessment.1 In this

section, we highlight the key results.

3.61 In relation to non-bulky comparison goods , none of the 11 district centres generate either a

core or primary catchment area. This means that all 11 district centres are over-shadowed by

other centres; within the BMA, for example, Belfast City Centre achieves the highest level of

market penetration in all of the 14 zones, whilst Lisburn City Centre and Bangor Town

Centre dominate two zones and one zone respectively. Only five other district centres are

strong enough to generate secondary catchments; these being Forestside/Upper Galwally, the

Abbey Centre, the Bloomfield Centre, Connswater and the Park Centre. All the other district

centres produce tertiary catchments, except Dairy Farm which is too small to generate any

catchment area at all using our definition.

3.62 For bulky comparison goods , the district centres are in general a little more dominant.2 The

Abbey Centre, for example, generates a core catchment area consisting of three zones (5, 6

and 7), whilst the Abbey Centre (zone 14) and Connswater (zone 17), are sufficiently strong

to produce primary catchments. Both the Bloomfield District Centre and Forestside/Upper

Galwally (as well as the Abbey Centre and Connswater) have secondary catchments, whilst

the Westwood Centre and Yorkgate generate just tertiary catchments. Kennedy Way, the

1 The individual market shares are set out in Tables 6A and 6B, Appendix 1B, Volume 3 for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods respectively, and Table 5, Appendix 1C, Volume 3 for convenience goods. 2 The retail warehousing that is located close to a number of the district centres contribute to the generation of their catchment areas for bulky comparison goods shopping. However, as noted at paragraph 3.59 above, this retail warehousing often lies outside of the boundary of the district centres as defined in Section 7.



35

Park Centre, Dairy Farm, the Northcott Centre and Springhill do not generate catchments for

bulky comparison goods at all.

3.63 As befitting their role as perceived by PPS 5, the district centres generally perform much

better in relation to convenience goods . Six of the 11 centres (Connswater, the Park Centre,

Yorkgate, Forestside/Upper Galwally, the Abbey Centre and the Bloomfield Centre)

generate primary catchments, with the Bloomfield Centre also producing a core catchment in

zone 13 (North Down East / Bangor). All the remaining centres, except Dairy Farm, generate

secondary and/or tertiary catchments. As with non-bulky and bulky comparison goods, Dairy

Farm is too small to generate a convenience catchment.

3.64 Although none of the district centres individually is able to compete with Belfast City

Centre, collectively they do exert a major influence within the BMA. For example, three are

on a par with Lisburn City Centre in terms of total annual retail turnover, whilst four

generate more retail sales than the Sprucefield regional shopping centre (see Figure 3.34,

page 32). Moreover, even many of the smaller district centres have turnovers broadly

comparable to town centres such as Ballyclare. Thus the BMA district centres are not only

different to those in mainland GB in terms of their format, but many are stronger in retailing

terms; the term district centre in GB tends to be given to a relatively small (free-standing)

town centre or, within a large city or urban area, a suburban (in-centre) retail location.

3.65 Overall, by combining data on estimated retail turnover and size (sales floorspace) we

conclude that Forestside/Upper Galwally and the Bloomfield Centre are performing

particularly strongly. With the addition of the Abbey Centre, included due to its sheer size

(sales), rather than performance (sales density), these three district centres are now

effectively functioning as a hybrid form of large scale district centre.1 All the remaining

eight district centres have significantly lower retail turnovers and do not generate the same

levels of trading performance.

Centre Dominance

3.66 Centres or retail locations which capture the largest single share of available consumer retail

expenditure within a zone we describe as being dominant within that area. Figures 3.35,

1 This is a term used in the NIRRS paragraph 2.19.



36

3.36 and 3.37 show centre dominance across our survey area for non-bulky comparison,

bulky comparison and convenience goods shopping respectfully. The maps provide a good

visual indication of the relative strengths of centres across the BMAP area and its shopping

hinterland for each category of goods.

3.67 The relative dominance of Belfast City Centre for non-bulky comparison goods retailing is

evident in Figure 3.35 overleaf. Our survey confirms that the influence of the city centre

extends to the edge of the BMAP area in every direction, except to the south west, where its

dominance is constrained by Lisburn City Centre, and to the north east, where Bangor town

centre dominates zone 13. Lisburn City Centre dominates zones 8 and 9, and is the only

centre (other than Belfast City Centre) to dominate more than a single zone. Ballymena,

Portadown, Newry and Bangor town centres all dominate the single zone in which they are

located. Significantly, none of the stand alone shopping centres or Sprucefield are

sufficiently attractive to dominate any zone for non-bulky comparison shopping.

3.68 The broad pattern of shopper behaviour for bulky comparison goods is shown in Figure

3.36 overleaf. The map confirms that trips for this form of shopping are undertaken more

locally and therefore 12 different centres / stores dominate the household survey area, rather

than just the seven which relate to non-bulky comparison goods shopping. The major retail

locations for bulky comparison goods shopping are Boucher Retail Park and the Abbey

Centre, which dominate four zones each, although the dominance of the Abbey Centre is

much more concentrated. The only other centre to dominate more than a single zone is

Belfast City Centre, which achieves the largest market share in zones 16 (Belfast South) and

18 (Belfast Central). The dominance of the city centre for bulky comparison goods shopping

is, of course, significantly below its performance for non-bulky goods, where it dominates no

less than 11 zones.

3.69 Figure 3.37 overleaf shows the dominance map for convenience goods shopping. It

confirms that only three of the BMAP centres – Belfast, Ballyclare and Carrickfergus – have

sufficiently strong food shopping offers to dominate their local areas in terms of market

share and then it is just within their own individual zones. The map confirms that dominance

is fragmented across no less than 16 retail locations, with non town centre shopping centres

and individual large out of centre superstores proving attractive to shoppers. The Forestside



37

Centre, and the out of centre Tesco’s at Knocknagoney Road, Belfast and Bentrim Road,

Lisburn are particularly strong and dominate two zones each.

Characteristics of Shopper Behaviour

Non-Bulky Comparison Goods Shopping

3.70 Our BMAP household survey1 confirms that non-bulky comparison goods shopping is

undertaken relatively infrequently by survey area residents. On average almost half of

households undertake their main trips monthly or less often. Significantly, the proportion is

almost identical for Belfast City Centre which is rather surprising, since regional centre’s

normally attract more infrequent shopping trips.

3.71 For the survey as a whole, 42% of households choose their main centre because it is

convenient and close to home. This reason is the most important criteria in relation to all

BMAP town centres, except Belfast City Centre. The good choice / range of stores is the

principal reason given for visiting the city centre. Around one in 20 people choose the two

regional shopping centres – Belfast City Centre and Sprucefield – as their main centre

because it is close to work.

3.72 Around 74% of households within the survey area use a private car to undertake their main

non-bulky comparison goods shopping (55% as a driver and 19% as a passenger). In

comparison just 16% travel by bus, 7% walk and 3% use a taxi. Belfast City Centre is less

reliant on the car with just 57% of trips using this mode of transport, while 32% arrive by

bus.

Bulky Comparison Goods Shopping

3.73 Around three-quarters of survey area households visit their main centre for bulky

comparison goods shopping monthly or less often. This compares to 46% for non-bulky

comparison goods, indicating that shopping for bulky items – as one may expect – is

undertaken less frequently.

1. The text refers to the results of the household survey undertaken as part of this study (the BMAP Household Survey). The survey area covers zones 1 to 18 as shown in Figure 3.1a and 3.1b.



38

3.74 As for non-bulky comparison goods shopping convenience of location is the most important

reason for choosing which centre to visit. At 47% of households, the proportion is a little

higher than for non-bulky comparison goods shopping. A good choice of stores is again the

second ranked criteria.

3.75 Overall, for our survey area, 85% of main trips for bulky comparison goods shopping are

undertaken by car. Most of the remaining journeys are made by bus.

Convenience Goods Shopping

3.76 Around 70% of convenience goods main shopping trips take place during the week (Monday

through to Friday) with 53% being carried out during the day and 16% in the evenings. In

comparison only 13% are undertaken at weekends, while 19% of households vary their

pattern of main food shopping.

3.77 The location of a store close to home is the main reason influencing choice of main food

shopping destination in 60% of households. A wide choice of products available is the

second ranked reason, but this scored only 12%. Signif icantly free / ease of parking is

mentioned by just 5% of households. The importance of convenience of location is reflected

in the fact that 68% of main food shopping trip journeys take (on average) 10 minutes or

less, while the corresponding figures for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods are around

40%.

3.78 The most common frequency of carrying out a main food shop is once a week (64% of

households), while an additional 29% undertake such trips even more frequently. Shopping

for convenience goods is therefore undertaken much more often than for non-bulky or bulky

comparison goods.

3.79 Around 79% of survey area residents use a private car for their main food shopping (57% as

driver), while 13% walk and 6% travel by bus.

3.80 Some 44% of households in our survey link their main food shopping trip with another form

of shopping. For food stores located within Carryduff and Lisburn City centres the

proportion increases to more than 80% on average, whilst Ballyclare town centre is

characterised by a low linkage of just 32%. The types of shop / service visited most



39

frequently on a linked trip are the chemist (in 50% of cases), specialist food shops (37%) and

the post office (34%).

Leisure Trip Patterns

3.81 Although retail is the main focus of this study, the brief also requires that the leisure sector is

considered, particularly in relation to the role it plays in sustaining the vitality and viability

of city and town centres. Therefore our household telephone survey also incorporated

questions on participation levels for a range of leisure activities and sought to identify the

broad pattern of leisure trips across the sub-region. 1 We assess the role which leisure plays in

contributing to the health of city / town centres in Section 7.

3.82 Our survey sought information on the following nine leisure activities: visiting the cinema,

theatre/concert, bingo, ten-pin bowling, restaurant, night club/disco, swimming, health

centre/gym and pub/wine bar. Overall, the frequency of carrying out these leisure activities

is very low in comparison to trips made for shopping purposes. Accordingly, the number of

positive responses across the range of activities is sometimes quite low and the results must

therefore be treated with some caution. Figure 3.38 shows the proportion of households that

undertake each type of leisure activity monthly or more often and the proportion that never

carry out the activity.

Fig. 3.38 The Frequency with which Households Undertake Leisure Activities, 2002

1 The household survey results relating to leisure trips are set out in full in Volume 2, Appendix 3d, Tables 23 to 32 inclusive.

4 29

1913

90

56

44

22

4

30

79

5849

82

7080

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CinemaTheatre / Concert

BingoTen Pin Bowling

Restaurant

Night Club / Disco

Swimming

Health Centre / Gym

Pub / Wine Bar

% o

f H

ouse

hold

s

Monthly or more often Never



40

3.83 Visiting a restaurant is the activity carried out most frequently with 44% of households

making a visit at least once a month. Visits to a pub/wine bar, the cinema and swimming are

also reasonably popular being undertaken monthly or more often by 30%, 22% and 19% of

households respectively. However, all other specified leisure activities are undertaken

monthly or more often by just 13% of households or less. Bingo, theatre / concerts and ten

pin bowling are visited by just a 4%, 4% and 2% of households respectively.

3.84 Overall, Belfast City Centre is the main centre visited for all of the leisure activities listed

with the exceptions of swimming and the cinema where Lisburn is marginally the leading

centre. Bangor is the only other town to attract a material amount of leisure trips.

3.85 Our survey also confirms that leisure and shopping activities tend to be undertaken

separately; none of the leisure activities generate more than 15% linked trips with shopping.

The best performer in this regard is visiting restaurants, which is combined with shopping on

14% of occasions.

3.86 In addition to providing a general overview of leisure activity, the survey also gives an

indication of the pattern of leisure trips across the area for the different types of leisure use.

An analysis of this information enables some conclusions to be reached regarding the need

for certain types of leisure provision at various centres.

3.87 Survey data on cinema visits, for example, shows that whereas Belfast, Lisburn,

Carrickfergus and Bangor cater adequately for the needs of their local populations, the vast

majority of people living within Carryduff and Holywood look to Belfast City Centre for the

cinema. This suggests there could be a need for a new cinema complex to serve the residents

of Castlereagh Borough and the area around Holywood. People in Ballyclare look to the

cinema at Glengormley.

3.88 Belfast City Centre, perhaps not unexpectedly, is the principal destination for theatre /

concert trips for households living across the entire BMA and its hinterland. Although

Lisburn and Bangor retain a material number of theatre / concert trips, the remaining BMAP

towns do not appear to have the facilities to attract trips for this type of leisure activity.

3.89 The incidence of going to bingo is generally very low across the survey area, perhaps

reflecting the demographic profile of the residential population. It is therefore difficult to



41

produce meaningful results, although the data suggests local facilities for this kind of leisure

use are adequate, except at Ballyclare, Holywood and Carryduff.

3.90 Within the BMA ten pin bowling usage is concentrated at these principal locations: Belfast

City Centre, the Dundonald Ice Bowl and Glengormley. Significantly, the Lisburn area is

unable to meet the needs of its population for this form of leisure.

3.91 Not surprisingly, most of the BMAP towns serve as the principal restaurant destination for

their own residents, suggesting that in most cases the existing supply of this type of leisure

use is adequate. The exceptions are Ballyclare and Carryduff which are cited as main

restaurant locations by just 21% and 0% of their area’s residents respectively.

3.92 Although the frequency of visiting night clubs/discos is very low, the survey suggests that

Belfast City Centre is the major destination for this activity throughout the BMA. The only

other town which attracts significant numbers of trips is Bangor (33% from its own zone).

Lisburn City Centre is not a major destination for this kind of leisure use.

3.93 Swimming is a leisure activity in which facilities are generally available throughout the

BMA and in each of the BMAP towns. Thus need is met locally except in Carryduff, where

most households travel into Belfast City Centre.

3.94 Health centre/gym facilities also appear to be adequate within most BMAP towns, with local

facilities attracting the majority of trips for this form of leisure activity. The exception is

once again Carryduff, where users must travel into Belfast City Centre.

3.95 Lastly pubs and wine bars are found almost everywhere and it is not surprising therefore that

existing facilities at Ballyclare, Bangor, Belfast City Centre, Carrickfergus and Holywood

appear to be adequate in meeting the needs of their local populations. Pub/wine bar facilities

at Carryduff, however, are insufficient as demonstrated by the fact that local people travel

into Belfast City Centre for this activity. Rather surprisingly, marginally more households in

zone 8 (Lisburn Urban) visit pub / wine bars in Belfast than in their own city centre. Coupled

with the relative under-performance of Lisburn for night clubs / discos, this suggests there

may be a qualitative need to improve the evening economy of the city.



42

4. VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF TOWN CENTRES

The Role and Requirements of PPS 5

4.1 PPS 5 has been prepared by the Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland:-

• “to formulate and co-ordinate policy for securing the orderly and consistent development

of land and the planning of that development.” (paragraph 1)

4.2 It sets out the Department’s policy for town centres and retail developments for all of

Northern Ireland. The principal policy objectives are as follows:-

• “to sustain and enhance the vitality and viability of town centres;

• to focus development, especially retail development, in locations where the proximity of

business facilitates competition from which all consumers are able to benefit and

maximises the opportunity to use means of transport other than the car;

• to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector; and

• to ensure the availability of a wide range of shops, employment services and facilities to

which people have easy access by a choice of means of transport.” (paragraph 5)

4.3 PPS 5 states that the government:-

• “is committed to protecting the vitality and viability of existing town centres” (paragraph

15)

whilst it is also recognised that smaller town centres may be particularly vulnerable to the

impact of out-of-centre retail development.

4.4 An important requirement to ensure the appropriate effectiveness and implementation of this

policy guidance is that the vitality and viability of town centres are assessed and PPS 5 states



43

that this is best undertaken as part of the preparation of development plans. PPS 5 (at

paragraph 18) helpfully defines vitality and viability as follows:-

• Vitality – is a measure of how busy a centre is

• Viability – is a measure of its capacity to attract ongoing investment for maintenance,

improvement and adaptation to changing needs.

Approach to Measuring Vitality and Viability

4.5 In practice, measuring the vitality and viability of a town centre involves not just one

indicator but a series of them. An assessment involving a combination of indicators may be

termed a “health check” and can provide a view of town centre performance. PPS 5 sets out

the indicators which should be used to carry out town centre health checks in Northern

Ireland. These are as follows:-

• accessibility: the ease and convenience of means of travel, including the frequency,

penetration and quality of public transport services, the quality, quantity, location and

type of car parking, and the qua lity of provision for people with a mobility handicap,

pedestrians and cyclists;

• customer views: surveys of customers’ views;

• diversity of uses: amount and location of floorspace for different uses and how this is

changing;

• environmental quality of the centre;

• pedestrian flow: the number and movement of people on the streets, in different

locations, at different times of the day or evening and over a period of time;

• retailer profile: the existing composition, the retailer demand and other potential

changes;



44

• retailers’ views: surveys of the views of existing town centre retailers;

• shop rents: pattern of movement in that part of the town centre with the highest rents;

and

• vacancy rates: particularly the proportion of vacant street level floorspace in primary

shopping areas.

4.6 In this section, we present our “health checks” of all seven BMAP defined town centres.

Centres are assessed individually and for each we adopt a structure which follows the list of

indicators recommended by PPS 5.

4.7 The health check assessments described below represent the culmination of a number of

distinct strands of work. In particular, we have:-

• visited each of the centres in depth and directly observed their environments, retail offers

and trading dynamics;

• reviewed and assimilated, where relevant, existing published reports, plans and data;1

• incorporated a commercial / market view of retailer demand and associated issues,

and, most importantly,

• undertaken a range of surveys to generate new information on the trading characteristics

and dynamics of each centre and the attitudes of (visiting) consumers and (occupying)

retailers.

4.8 As well as the household telephone survey, which has already been described and analysed

in Section 3, we undertook three further types of survey to underpin the health checks:-

1 In this section, we refer to retail floorspace data produced by The Planning Service which relates to 2001. In our later quantitative need assessment we update this data to our base year (2002) by taking into account recent retail floorspace completions.



45

• a survey of shoppers in each of the seven BMAP town centres – 1,473 interviews were

successfully carried out. (Full details of the survey and results are given in Volume 2,

Appendix 4.)

• a survey of retailers in each of the seven BMAP town centres – completed

questionnaires were received from 502 shop owners / managers. (Full details of the

survey and results are given in Volume 2, Appendix 5).

• counts of pedestrian flows were undertaken at a range of points within each of the seven

BMAP town centres. (Full details of the counts and results are given in Volume 2,

Appendix 6).

4.9 We now present our health checks for each town centre in turn. At the end of the section, we

summarise the assessments and set out what we consider to be the qualitative need for

additional retail floorspace in each centre.

Belfast City Centre

Accessibility

4.10 Belfast City Centre is readily accessible by a variety of modes of public transport. Our

shopper survey indicates that 32% of Belfast shoppers drive to the centre and a further 10%

travel by car as a passenger. To accommodate these journeys, in 2001 the city centre had

10,000 car parking spaces which represents almost a fivefold increase in the number of

spaces which were available in 1977.1 Much of this additional parking has been private

multi-storey but there have also been an increase in the number of on-street spaces and

private surface car parking. Our surveys indicate that 19% of city centre shoppers would like

to see further improvements made to the parking facilities, as would 27% of retailers.

4.11 37% of shoppers use the bus to access the city centre, a figure which unusually rivals car

usage. However, bus services delivered by Citybus and Ulsterbus have experienced a

reduction in the volume of passenger traffic of 12% and 8.5% respectively over the three

year period 1996/97 – 1999/2000. 16% of city centre shoppers would welcome

1 BMAP 2015 Issues Paper (Fig. 13)



46

improvements to public transport and 16% of retailers consider improving the bus service an

important issue for the future.

4.12 Significantly, almost one in 10 shoppers travel to the city centre by taxi, a proportion which

easily exceeds that for any other BMAP town centre, whilst 7% walk and just 4% use the

train. Northern Ireland Railway Services has reported a decline of 3.2% in passenger

carrying over three year period 1996/97 – 1999/2000.

4.13 Access for pedestrians, those with a mobility handicap and cyclists is considered adequate by

shoppers and retailers.

Customer Views1

4.14 Around three-quarters of people in the city centre visit for shopping, with 86% travelling

from home and 12% from work. Just over half shop for two hours or more, the biggest

proportion for any BMAP centre. The most important reasons given for shopping in the city

centre are its accessibility and wide choice of shops.

4.15 In terms of converting sales, the city centre’s shops appear to perform better in the non-bulky

rather than bulky comparison goods categories. This finding is consistent with the patterns of

expenditure flows identified in Section 3 and reflects the greater retail competition provided

by out of centre retail warehouses for bulky goods. Overall, however, although Belfast City

Centre is no match for many of the regional centres in Great Britain the level of retail

provision is still attractive to shoppers across the BMA. This is borne out by the finding that

Belfast City Centre is considered to be the main centre for non-food shopping for shoppers

interviewed in all the other BMAP centres except Bangor and Lisburn.

4.16 The average household spend (per trip) is £49, significantly more than at any other BMAP

town centre. Of this total most expenditure is on non-food items, with relatively little on

food to take home, catering and other services. Debenhams, Marks and Spencer and Next are

considered the three most important stores in the city centre, whilst Dunnes and Habitat are

amongst those which shoppers would like to see represented.

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Belfast City Centre are given in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



47

4.17 A majority of shoppers consider that the city centre’s retail mix, market position and street

layout are ‘fine’, although a significant minority of 22% feel the centre is too compact and

can at times get congested. ‘Easy to get to’, ‘attractive’ and ‘lively’ are the three phases that

most commonly describe Belfast City Centre, whilst leisure facilities are generally rated as

adequate, except for swimming. Looking to the future, a wider choice of shops and more /

better toilet facilities are singled out by shoppers as the improvements which they would

most like to see.

Diversity of Uses

4.18 Belfast City Centre is by a considerable margin the largest retail centre in Northern Ireland.

Its retail floorspace disaggregated by type of goods is shown in Table 4.1:-

Table 4.1: Retail Floorspace in Belfast City Centre (Sq M Net)

Type of Goods

Main Shopping

Area

Rest of City Centre Total Col.

%

Convenience 10,051 3,637 13,688 8 Non-Bulky Comparison 81,631 9,576 91,207 53 Bulky Comparison 6,608 6,566 13,174 8 Retail Services 15,909 17,288 33,197 19 Vacant 15,090 6,567 21,657 12 Total 129,289 43,634 172,923 100

Source: The Planning Service, 2001

4.19 Overall, there is around 173,000 sq m net of retail floorspace of which just over half trades

in non-bulky comparison goods, with bulky comparison goods and convenience goods both

occupying around 8% of the total. Retail services (19%) and voids (12%) both account for

more space than convenience or bulky comparison goods.

4.20 Table 4.2 overleaf sets the availability of retail floorspace within the city centre in the

context of totals for Belfast City District and the BMA as a whole. This confirms that Belfast

City Centre accounts for 38% of all non-bulky comparison goods floorspace in the BMA

(one-third of the BMA total is, in fact, located just within the ‘main shopping area’).

However, the city centre is much less dominant in relation to the other categories.

Significantly, it accounts for almost 20% of vacant retail floorspace in the BMA, the same



48

proportion as for retail services. Figure 4.1 overleaf compares the quantum of retail

floorspace available in Belfast City Centre against totals in other BMAP town centres. This

only serves to highlight the large gulf in the scale of retail offer between the regional centre

and the rest.

Table 4.2: Proportion of BMA Floorspace Stock Located in the Selected Area

Type of Floorspace

BMA Belfast City

District Belfast City

Centre

Belfast City Centre Main

Shopping Area

Non Bulky Comparison Goods

(Sq M Net) Index BMA = 100

239,689 100

143,424 60

91,207 38

81,631 34

Bulky Comparison Goods (Sq M Net) Index BMA = 100

157,653 100

71,486 45

13,174 8

6,608 4

Convenience Goods (Sq M Net) Index BMA = 100

204,615 100

91,231 45

13,688 7

10,051 5

Retail Services (Sq M Net) Index BMA = 100

175,503 100

95,628 54

33,197 19

15,909 9

Vacant (Sq M Net) Index BMA = 100

116,432 100

71,737 62

21,657 19

15,090 13

Source: Colliers CRE and The Planning Service, 2001

4.21 The allocation of retail floorspace in the city centre between different categories is analysed

further in Table 4.3, where it is compared to the UK average. This again confirms a

signif icant over-representation of vacant floorspace and, to a lesser extent, comparison

shopping.

Table 4.3: Diversity of Uses: Belfast City Centre

Type of Use

No. of Outlets (Index: UK Average = 100)

Floorspace (Index: UK Average = 100)

Convenience 63 25

Comparison 105 115

Service 75 97

Miscellaneous 89 91

Vacant 182 163 Source: Experian Goad, 2002

Fig. 4.1:RETAIL FLOORSPACE BY BMAP CENTRE

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

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300,000

Belfast CityCentre

Lisburn CityCentre

Bangor TownCentre

CarrickfergusTown Centre

Ballyclare TownCentre

Holywood TownCentre

Carryduff TownCentre

Sq

M N

et

Total Retail Floorspace (incl. convenience goods, retail services and voids)Non-Bulky Comparison Goods Only

Source: Valuation and Lands Agency, 2001



49

4.22 The data in Table 4.3 is presented in Figure 4.2 overleaf. This map illustrates a number of

important points about the retail offer and layout of Belfast City Centre. These are as

follows:-

• Donegall Place (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 1), Castle Court and the pedestrianised

streets to the east of Donegall Place are the main areas for comparison shopping;

• there is very little convenience retail provision and what there is, is spread throughout the

centre in a relatively small number of large units;

• service uses are in the main confined to secondary frontages, especially to the south of

Wellington Place / Chichester Street;

• there is an above average level of voids and these are spread throughout the city centre;

although few are located along the primary shopping frontages.

4.23 Belfast City Centre is, of course, also a major location for a wide range of non-retail uses,

including leisure, arts and culture, and religious and civic buildings. All of these attractions

ensure the city centre remains at the heart of the Northern Ireland economy.

Environmental Quality

4.24 Our surveys indicate that the environment of Belfast City Centre is held in higher regard by

shoppers than retailers. This finding is consistent with research carried out by Belfast City

Centre Management1 which concludes that there has been a decline in the number of retailers

who consider that levels of cleaning / maintenance are adequate. In particular, provision and

quality of public toilets is considered to be poor, a finding borne out by our own survey.

Given Belfast’s scale and importance, the general environment is perhaps not of the calibre

one would expect; the public realm is hard and there is little in the way of gardens, trees,

exhibitions, public art and landmark features. In addition, some of the pedestrianised areas

are looking a little tired and could perhaps benefit from refurbishment (Volume 2, Appendix

8, Photo 3). In short, the city centre lacks interest and makes interaction difficult, although it

is relatively clean and refuse free.

1 Belfast City Centre, Healthcheck and Benchmarking Report, January 2003.

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Fig 4.2 Diversity of Retail Use: Belfast

0 25 50 75 100 m

2002

UseConvenience

Comparison

Retail Service

Vacant



50

Pedestrian Flows

4.25 Data for this performance indicator was obtained by carrying out pedestrian flow counts at

24 points throughout Belfast City Centre1 over a period of three days. Figure 4.3 overleaf

shows the locations of these count points and summarises the main results. Volume 2,

Appendix 6B presents full details of the actual pedestrian flows at each count point (in each

direction) for each of the three days.

4.26 The highest estimated footfall is at 24-26 Castle Place (Count Point 10) with a two-way flow

of 71,370 people over a three day period. Other high flows (all 80% of peak or higher) are

found in Ann Street, Corn Street, Castle Lane and Donegall Place, which are all located

within a fairly tightly defined area.2. This is a part of city centre which contains a wide range

of major stores and multiples. Beyond this area pedestrian flows tail off quickly and are less

than 50% of peak in many of the secondary shopping streets and along Royal Avenue. The

pedestrian flows confirm that Saturday is the busiest day; counts on Monday and Friday at

the peak flow point are just 78% and 59% of the Saturday totals, for example.

4.27 Not surprisingly, Belfast City Centre is characterised by the heaviest footfall of all the

BMAP defined centres. The three day flow at the peak count point is almost double the flow

of the next busiest location within the BMA at Lisburn City Centre, as shown in Figure 4.4

overleaf. This chart also indicates that the differential between Belfast City Centre and the

remaining centres (except Lisburn) is wider on a Saturday, which confirms that more people

travel into the major retail centres on this (principal shopping) day relative to the rest of the

week.

Retailer Profile

4.28 The relative attractiveness of Belfast City Centre is usefully analysed over time by tracking

its rank in the annual Experian Centre Rankings. This assesses the vitality of retail centres by

1 The precise location of the 24 count points were agreed with The Planning Service prior to the start of the survey. They were selected in order to get a good feel for the variation in pedestrian flows throughout the city centre as a whole. 2 It should be noted that we did not carry out pedestrian flow counts within any of the fully enclosed shopping centres including Castle Court.

Fig. 4.4:PEDESTRIAN FLOWS: COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE OF BMAP TOWN CENTRES

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Belfast CityCentre

Lisburn CityCentre

Bangor TownCentre

Holywood TownCentre

CarrickfergusTown Centre

Carryduff TownCentre

Ballyclare TownCentre

Nu

mb

er o

f P

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tria

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Saturday Peak Flow (two way) Three Day Peak Flow (two ways)



51

combining a number of factors to generate a ‘vitality score’ for each centre, which is then

ranked.1 The changing rank of Belfast is summarised in Table 4.4.

Table 4.4: Changing Rank of Belfast City Centre 2000-2002

Year and Rank Centre

2000 2002 2000-02

Belfast City Centre 41 55 -14

Source: Experian

4.29 The evidence confirms that Belfast City Centre has recently fallen down the UK Centre

Retail rankings. In just two years (2000-2002) it fell 14 places from 41st to 55th. Today

centres such as Solihull, Hanley and Northampton rank above it, which confirms that it is not

performing as a true regional centre.

4.30 The range and depth of Belfast’s retail offer is relatively modest for a city of its size and

stature. Although representation from mainstream British multiples is improving and there

are a number of Irish chains in the city, there remains a significant under-representation of

speciality and upmarket retailers, and of department stores.

4.31 However, many of these weaknesses in the city centre’s retail profile look like being

addressed if the present demand for representation is an indicator. Retailers currently looking

for space are primarily UK multiples who seek prime and niche locations. Examples

include:-

• Borders Books • H&M • French Connection • Reiss • Dunnes Stores • Warner Brothers • Daisy & Tom • Sephora • Mango • Russell & Bromley • Elle • Jones Bootmaker • Jane Norman • Camper Footwear • Ciro Citterio • Suits You • Dune • Jigsaw

1 According to Experian, the ranking of each centre is a relative measure – it is a function of its own and other centres’ vitality scores. Any change in rank therefore replicates changes in a centre’s retail offer and environment.



52

• Eisenegger Klassiker • Ted Baker • Austin Reed • JJB Sports • Jacques Vert • Sport Soccer • Dockers • Ottakers • Mexx • Sanity

4.32 A key ‘hurdle’ is the shortage of suitable space. Prime units are in particular short supply

and this is hindering the expansion of Belfast City Centre’s retail offer. At the present time,

higher value retailers as well as competing retailers to those already established are not able

to achieve representation. Prime leases have a premium value which is causing inertia in

floorspace movement particularly as capital expenditure restrictions are evident amongst

most retailers. Rental demand is in turn exerting downward pressure on investment yields.

However the prospect of medium to long term rental growth is not strong due to the increase

in the supply of prime retail floorspace which will come about with the development of the

MDC scheme. As a result, UK funds and property companies are now dis-investing from the

prime city centre retail core, while yields are low.

4.33 The increasing cost of prime retail floorspace has facilitated the emergence of niche retail

pitches which are attracting speciality retailers such as Miss Sixty, Timberland, Diesel etc.

This trend shows significant momentum, especially around the Wellington Place / Queen

Street area.

Retailers’ Views1

4.34 Compared to the average for all BMAP centres, Belfast City Centre has proportionately

more multiple retailers, but is otherwise typical in terms of longevity of retail business (not

surprising) and size profile of store (surprising). Similarly, the proportion of retailers which

over the previous 12 months had refurbished their premises and extended their store and

product range is in line with the BMAP centre average.

4.35 Perhaps reflecting the recent influx of new retailers into the city centre, an above average

number of stores have experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover and had to improve

conditions of employment, although wages appear to have been kept under firm control.

1 Detailed results of the retailer survey for Belfast City Centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



53

4.36 At the time of the survey, 6% of the city centre’s retailers expected to cease trading in the

coming year, in line with the BMAP average. Plans to refurbish, extend sale space, increase

the product range and employ more staff were also consistent with other centres.

4.37 Although comparison retailers had, on average, achieved a sales increase of 4% over the

previous 12 months, the convenience sector turnover had fallen by 25%. Profitability in both

sectors had declined by 3% and 33% respectively. Generally it is the independents and / or

stores occupying small premises which seems to have been hardest hit.

4.38 At the time of the survey, retailers were more optimistic about the future. 44% anticipated an

increase in turnover over the next 12 months, whilst just 5% believed it would fall.

4.39 Retailers in the city centre are generally happy with their pitch and standard of

accommodation, whilst Belfast’s market position, trading mix and layout are also held in

high regard. Retailers also feel the number of vacant units and service businesses in the city

centre are acceptable. Indeed, Belfast City Centre is one of only two BMAP centres (the

other is Lisburn) which is deemed to have improved its trading performance over the past

five years. Nevertheless, retailers give eight out of a list of 13 performance criteria negative

scores, with parking charges, the safety / security of shoppers and traffic congestion

performing worst. The quality and range of goods available , and the quality and number of

places to eat and drink achieve the highest positive scores. Eight of the 13 criteria are also

perceived to be getting worse, with parking charges falling the most. In contrast, the number

and quality of catering outlets / bars are deemed to have experienced the most improvement.

4.40 Retailers themselves believe the three most important ‘anchor’ stores in the city centre are

Marks & Spencer, Debenhams and Next (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 1), whilst John

Lewis and H&M are singled out as those which they would most to see represented.

4.41 Looking to the future, retailers feel that making the city centre safer by reducing crime and

vandalism is the most important issue (the only BMAP centre to do so). Potentially adding to

the quantum of retail floorspace stock in the city centre is supported by 77% of existing retail

occupiers (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 2).



54

Shop Rents

4.42 Prime rents remained static in Belfast City Centre during the 12 months to May 2003 at

£2,691 per sq m; a characteristic shared with all the other BMAP centres except Bangor.

Over the past seven years, however, rents have risen by 47% from just £1,830 per sq m in

1996 (Figure 4.5a overleaf). Although the prime rent of £2,691 per sq m is higher than those

achieved at centres like Glasgow (£2,368 per sq m), Sheffield (£2,207 per sq m) and Bristol

(£1,938 per sq m), it still falls short of the rents at other major centres such as Liverpool

(£2,960 per sq m), Leeds (£2,906 per sq m) and Manchester (£3,229 per sq m). The present

level of prime rent in Belfast has been confirmed in a number of deals – River Island, Next

and WH Smiths (in their first store in Northern Ireland) have all agreed terms with Zone A

rents of £2,691 per sq m. This growth has in part been driven by the lack of available retail

floorspace in Belfast, particularly larger units (the Next deal sees the retailer moving to a

unit of around 3,720 sq m – broadly three times the size of its previous units). Prime retail

rents in Belfast City centre greatly exceed those within any other BMAP centre and, as

shown by Figure 4.5b overleaf, the gap appears to be widening. Table 4.5 sets out the

estimated prime rents for Belfast City Centre since 1996.

Table 4.5 Prime Rents in Belfast City Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 1,830 1997 1,884 1998 1,991 1999 2,153 2000 2,368 2001 2,583 2002 2,691 2003 2,691

Source: Colliers CRE



55

Fig.4.5a Prime Retail Rental Performance, 1996-2003, by Centre (Index 1996=100)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Year

Inde

x (1

996=

100)

Belfast

Ballyclare

Bangor

Carrickfergus

Carryduff

Holywood

Lisburn

Source: Colliers CRE Fig. 4.5b Prime Retail Rents, 1996-2003, by Centre

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Year

Ren

t (£/

sqm

)

Belfast

Ballyclare

Bangor

Carrickfergus

Carryduff

Holywood

Lisburn




56

Vacancy Rates

4.43 Floorspace data prepared by The Planning Service indicates that in 2001 there was 21,657 sq

m net of vacant retail floorspace in Belfast City Centre of which 15,090 sq m (or 70%) was

in the ‘main shopping area’. This total of vacancy represents 30% of that available within the

Belfast City Council Area and 19% of the entire BMA total.

4.44 The relatively high level of vacancy is confirmed by the Experian data in Table 4.3, which

shows the number of voids and amount of vacant floorspace to be 82% and 63% above

national average levels respectively. According to the 2003 report by Belfast City Centre

Management1, the vacancy rate is also higher than that in comparable UK regional centres.

4.45 The high level of vacancy appears inconsistent with the considerable demand for retail

representation in the city centre. However, most of the voids are located in secondary

shopping areas in units that do not meet the aspirations of today’s multiple retailers (see

Figure 4.3), whilst a number are in areas of the city centre that have been identified for retail

development. Accordingly, there is a mis-match between large sections of the retail

floorspace stock (supply) and what retailers are searching for (demand).

Ballyclare Town Centre

Accessibility

4.46 The car is by far the most commonly used mode of transport to access Ballyclare town

centre. Our survey indicates that 73% of shoppers drive to the centre, whilst another 14%

travel as car passengers. The main car parks are Market Square and the Safeway car park.

Improvements to the car parking facilities would be welcomed by 60% of shoppers and by

27% of retailers. Such is the reliance on the car, other transport modes are seldom used; only

6% walk to the town centre, 5% travel by taxi and just 1% use the bus. The heavy reliance

on car travel for shopping, combined with the town’s role as a transport pinch point, leads to

high levels of traffic congestion and a desire to reduce it (Volume 2, Appendix 8 Photo 5).

Around two-thirds of shoppers and retailers would like to see reductions in traffic

congestion, making this issue crucial to the future enhancement of Ballyclare as a retail

destination.

1 Belfast City Centre Healthcheck and Benchmarking Report, January 2003.



57

Customer Views1

4.47 Not surprisingly for a small centre, almost nine out ten people visiting the town centre do so

to shop, whilst an identical proportion travel from home. Less than 20% of visitors shop for

two hours or more again reflecting the limited scale of the retail offer.

4.48 Sales are most readily converted for convenience and incidental items (eg. food and chemists

goods) and catering, whilst comparison goods achieve relatively low conversion rates. This

finding reflects the pattern of expenditure flows described in Section 3 and reflects the

considerable leakage of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure from the local

area. In fact, only 9% of shoppers interviewed in Ballyclare actually use the town as their

main centre for non-food shopping; 39% choose Belfast City Centre, 22% the Abbey Centre

and 18% Ballymena.

4.49 The average expenditure per trip in Ballyclare town centre is £38, of which virtually all is

spent on food to take home. This reflects the important role of food retailing in anchoring the

town centre, a fact borne out by the shoppers choice of Safeway, Woodsides and Bairds as

Ballyclare’s most important stores. Marks & Spencer, Dunnes Stores and Iceland are the

shops which shoppers would most like to see represented in the town centre.

4.50 A big majority of shoppers feel that there are not enough large shops in the town centre,

whilst the same number consider the centre is too compact / congested. In addition, a

significant minority think the retail offer is too cheap / down market. ‘Nice’, ‘easy to get to’

and ‘scruffy’ are the three phrases that most commonly describe Ballyclare town centre,

whilst leisure facilities are rated as being adequate, except for the cinema, nightclubs /

discos, and restaurants. Theatre / concert halls also score badly , but we would not expect a

small town to offer such facilities. Looking to the future, a greater choice and quality of

shops are singled out by shoppers as the improvements which they would most like to see,

whilst better public toilets, security and less traffic pollution also rate as important.

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Ballyclare town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



58

Diversity of Uses

4.51 The retail floorspace in Ballyclare town centre relative to that available in the other BMAP

centres is shown if Figure 4.1 (following page 48). In total there is 9,587 sq m net, which

makes it the fifth largest centre, although someway behind the major centres of Belfast,

Lisburn and Bangor. In terms of non-bulky comparison goods shopping, it is also marginally

smaller than Holywood.

4.52 The shortage of non-bulky comparison goods floorspace – normally the mainstay of town

centres – is evident from Table 4.6, which confirms that it accounts for only 20% of the

available stock; around half of the space occupied by the food offer, and broadly comparable

to the floorspace taken-up by retail services and voids. This allocation of space explains why

there is so much leakage of comparison goods expenditure from the local area.

Table 4.6: Retail Floorspace in Ballyclare Town Centre

Type of Use No. of Outlets

Floorspace (Sq M Net) Col. %

Convenience 22 3,424 36 Non-Bulky Comparison 25 1,997 20 Bulky Comparison 5 835 9 Retail Services 39 1,743 18 Vacant 31 1,588 17 Total 122 9,587 100


4.53 In addition to retail, the town centre also contains a relatively large number of pubs and a

few cafes. The leisure offer is, however, fairly weak and there appears to be a shortage of

restaurants and other evening facilities such as clubs and a cinema.

4.54 Information on diversity of uses within Ballyclare town centre is shown on the map in

Figure 4.6 overleaf. The key points are as follows:-

• the principal area for comparison goods retailing is along Main Street; although there is

relatively little provision in the town centre;



59

• convenience goods shopping is also mainly concentrated along Main Street and on the

east side of Market Square; the two major food stores of Woodsides (Market Square) and

Safeway (Main Street) are easily identified;

• service uses are scattered throughout the town centre, with particular concentrations along

the southern section of Main Street and fronting onto Market Square;

• there is a major concentration of vacant outlets in the northern area of the town centre

around North End and Rashee Road. (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 6).


4.55 In recent years a number of public realm improvements have been made to Ballyclare town

centre. Many have been created from modest natural resources (Volume 2, Appendix 8,

Photo 7). Nevertheless, throughout the town, the environment is hard with little greenery.

The only significant public open space in the town centre is provided by the environs of the

attractive town hall in Market Square. Unfortunately, this public open space is dominated by

traffic; half of the square is used as an at-grade car park whilst there are heavy traffic flows

around it, notably along Main Street and Doagh Road. Reflecting the quality of the

environment, it is perhaps not surprising that 53% of shoppers would like to see the town

centre made more attractive and 51% would like to see measures taken to improve

cleanliness in the centre (for both criteria the highest of any BMAP centre). Overall, only 2%

of shoppers describe the town centre as ‘attractive’, whilst retailers consider the environment

to be even worse; 47% describe the town as ‘scruffy’ (the highest percentage in a BMAP

centre), perhaps exemplified by the northern end of town, which is blighted by a large

number of voids.

Pedestrian Flow

4.56 As part of the study, we undertook pedestrian flow counts at six locations within Ballyclare

town centre over a period of three days. Figure 4.7 overleaf shows the locations of the count

points and summarises the main results. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in

Volume 2, Appendix 6B.



60

4.57 The highest three day footfall is at 65 Main Street (Count Point 5) with a two-way flow of

10,820. This is, however, the lowest peak flow of any BMAP centre (see Figure 4.4

following page 50). Flows are almost as high on the east side of Market Square, but tail off

considerably in other parts of the town centre. Unusually, Saturday is not the busiest day

(peak flow 3,600), but Friday (4,380). This suggests that on the main shopping day, many

local people choose to shop at other major centres; for example, the Abbey Centre or Belfast

City Centre.

Retailer Profile

4.58 Compared to Belfast City Centre, the retail offer of Ballyclare town centre is very modest

and, as highlighted earlier, is biased towards food shopping. Present demand for

representation in the centre is modest and primarily restricted to a number of value orientated

retailers, who generally seek a prime location in Main Street.

4.59 However, Ballyclare has the potential for its retail offer to grow as a direct result of the

significant amount of new housing starts which are particularly aimed at first time buyers

and commuters. This should give a boost to locally available retail expenditure.

4.60 Safeway has recognised this trading opportunity and anticipate opening a town centre

superstore by September 2004. The presence of such a facility should assist the retention of

consumer spending in the town centre which will then present an opportunity for developers

to create further town centre floorspace for national retailers. Already Peacock Stores has

taken advantage of such an opportunity. Existing traditional retail property in the town centre

is of insufficient size and quality to attract Irish or UK national retailers. New retail

development should address this issue.

Retailers Views1

4.61 According to our survey, Ballyclare has proportionately the fewest shops occupied by

national multiples of any BMAP centre. However, many of those that trade have been

established for a long time; 65% for six years or more compared to only 52% for the BMAP

centres as a whole. The proportion of retailers which, over the past 12 months have

1 Full results of the retailer survey for Ballyclare town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



61

refurbished their premises, and extended their store and product range exceed the BMAP

average on all these counts.

4.62 Reflecting the lack of change in the town’s retail offer, relatively few retailers had

experienced during the previous 12 months higher than anticipated staff turnover or had to

improve conditions of employment, although 16% had to increase wages more than

expected.

4.63 More than one in 10 retailers responding to our survey expected to cease trading over the

coming 12 months, the highest proportion of any BMAP centre except Carryduff (13%).

Plans to refurbish, extend salespace, increase the product range and employ more staff were

generally in line with the BMAP average.

4.64 Retailers in Ballyclare had, on average, achieved sales growth of 3% over the previous 12

months, with the convenience sector doing best (up 5%). Store profitability, however, fell by

3% overall, with the comparison goods sector doing particula rly badly with a 7% fall.

4.65 Looking ahead, retailers were more optimistic with 42% expecting their sales to increase

with just 18% expecting their turnover to decline.

4.66 Town centre retailers are generally happy with the pitch of their shop and standard of

accommodation. However, there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Ballyclare’s retail offer and

layout; a majority feel the town’s market position is ‘too downmarket’ and that there are not

enough large stores. Most also feel the town is too congested. Furthermore, more than nine

in 10 retailers consider the current number of vacant units is unacceptable (the highest

proportion of any BMAP centre), although most felt that the number of service businesses is

about right. The general negative perception towards Ballyclare as a retail location is

summarised by the fact that 71% of retailers feel the trading performance of the town has

declined over the past five years (the highest proportion of any BMAP centre). Moreover,

retailers give Ballyclare negative scores against all 13 performance criteria, with traffic

congestion performing worst. Furthermore, the town centre is deemed to be getting worse in

respect of all of the criteria except entertainment / leisure facilities. This reflects the recent

opening of a new leisure centre on the edge of the town centre.



62

4.67 Retailers consider the two principal anchor stores in the town to be Safeway and Woodsides,

whilst Marks & Spencer, Next and Dunnes Stores are singled out as those stores which they

would most like to see represented in the town.

4.68 Looking ahead, retailers consider the need to reduce traffic congestion is the most important

issue facing the town (the only BMAP centre to cite this as the major problem). Some 87%

of retailers are in favour of adding to the amount of retail floorspace in the town centre to

enable new retailers to locate in the centre.

Shop Rents

4.69 Prime retail rents in Ballyclare are now £242 psm, up 51% since 1996, although most of this

growth occurred between 2001 and 2002. Despite this recent uplift, rental values in the town

remain the lowest within any BMAP centre, except for Carryduff. Figures 4.5a and 4.5b

(page 55) summarise the recent rental performance of Ballyclare against that of the other

BMAP centres. Table 4.7 sets out the estimated rental values since 1996.

Table 4.7 Prime Rents in Ballyclare Town Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 160 1997 162 1998 164 1999 164 2000 164 2001 168 2002 242 2003 242


Vacancy Rates

4.70 Floorspace data from The Planning Service confirms that in 2001 there was 1,558 sq m net

of vacant floorspace in Ballyclare town centre. This total represents 17% of the entire stock

(see Table 4.6, page 58), the highest proportion of any BMAP centre, and in practice almost

as much as the quantum of occupied non-bulky comparison goods floorspace (1,997 sq m

net, 20%). There is clearly a need to reduce this level of voids, although as shown by Figure



63

4.6 (following page 58), much of this is located away from the prime pitch and the

accommodation may not therefore be attractive to modern retailers.

Bangor Town Centre

Accessibility

4.71 Shoppers use a variety of means to access Bangor town centre. Car usage is relatively

moderate, with 46% of shoppers using this mode; 33% driving and 13% as passengers. This

is the lowest proportion of any BMAP centre, except Belfast City Centre. The main car parks

are the Marina Car Park and the Flagship Shopping Centre. Bus usage is high with around

one-third of shoppers travelling to the town centre by this mode (only for Belfast City Centre

is the percentage higher). Other significant modes of transport include walking (19%) and

taxi and cycle (both 2%). Unlike in other BMAP centres traffic congestion is not a serious

issue, although 26% of shoppers would like to see levels reduced. Access for pedestrians,

those with a mobility handicap and cyclists appear to be considered adequate amongst the

shoppers and retailers of Bangor.

Customer Views1

4.72 Around 70% of people visit Bangor town centre primarily to shop and 93% of these travel

from home. Just over one-third shop for two hours or more, a proportion lower than for

Belfast and Lisburn City Centres, but higher than for the other BMAP centres.

4.73 Buying conversion rates for people who actually shop in the town centre are reasonable,

confirming that the available retail offer meets most shoppers needs. This is borne out by the

fact that 52% of Bangor’s shoppers choose the town centre as their main centre for non-food

shopping, whilst only 29% nominate Belfast City Centre (the second ranked centre).

Relatively few shoppers mention the nearby, but very successful, Bloomfield Centre, which

suggests there is little overlap between the customer base of this centre and Bangor town

centre.

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Bangor town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



64

4.74 The average expenditure per party per trip in Bangor town centre is £28, of which most is

spent on non-food items; this is a characteristic it shares with Belfast and Lisburn City

Centres (at the remaining BMAP centres food to take home accounts for the majority of

expenditure). Menarys, Tempest and Woolworth are rated by shoppers as the most important

stores in the town centre, and they would most like to see better quality clothing and shoe

shops in the future.

4.75 A majority of shoppers would like to see more larger stores in the town centre, whilst a

similar proportion feel the centre is too compact and congested. Although most people feel

the market position of the town centre is ‘fine as it is’, there is a small minority who feel it is

too downmarket. ‘Nice’, ‘easy to get to’ and ‘lively’ are the three phrases that most

commonly describe Bangor town centre, whilst Bangor scores relatively highly in relation to

its range of leisure facilities; only in relation to theatre/concert halls and ten pin bowling are

facilities deemed to be less than adequate. Looking ahead, a wider choice of shops is the

principal improvement which shoppers would like to see.

Diversity of Uses

4.76 Figure 4.1 (following page 48) compares the retail floorspace of Bangor town centre with

the other BMAP centres. In total there is 40,932 sq m net, which makes it the third largest

town centre behind Belfast City Centre and Lisburn City Centre, although the latter centre is

only marginally bigger. Similarly, in terms of non-bulky comparison goods floorspace,

Bangor is only 271 sq m net smaller than Lisburn.

4.77 Table 4.8 overleaf disaggregates retail floorspace within Bangor town centre by main types

of use. This confirms that 47% of the stock is devoted to comparison goods, with 41% taken-

up by non-bulky goods. Only 19% of the floorspace is occupied by convenience uses, not

much more than for retail services or voids.



65

Table 4.8 Retail Floorspace in Bangor Town Centre



Convenience 45 7,379 19 Non-Bulky Comparison 89 16,169 41 Bulky Comparison 28 2,408 6 Retail Services 144 7,170 18 Vacant 82 6,017 15 Total 388 39,143 100


4.78 The allocation of retail floorspace in the town centre is analysed further in Table 4.9. This

shows representation of the different use categories in terms of numbers of units and

floorspace compared to the UK average. This confirms that convenience goods shopping is

currently significantly under-represented, whilst vacancy greatly exceeds the national

average.

Table 4.9 Diversity of Uses: Bangor Town Centre

Type of Use No. of Outlets (Index: UK Average = 100)

Floorspace (Sq M Gross) (Index: UK Average = 100)

Convenience 78 68 Comparison 92 91 Service 95 111 Miscellaneous 42 145 Vacant 178 187

Source: Experian Goad, 2002

4.79 In addition to retail, Bangor town centre contains a good range of catering and leisure

facilities, and the evening economy is fairly vibrant, albeit it is aimed mainly at the younger

element of the market.

4.80 The data in Table 4.9 is presented in Figure 4.8 overleaf. The map provides further

information on the diversity of uses within Bangor town centre. The key points are as

follows:-

• the primary frontage for comparison goods retailing is along Main Street and within the

Flagship Shopping Centre;

HAMILTON ROAD

MARKET

LANE

BIN

GH

AM

ST

RE

ET

KING STREET

CASTLESTREET

CASTLE SQUARE

RU

BY

ST

RE

ET

ALB

ER

TS

TR

EE

T

ALF

RE

DS

TRE

ET

BE

AT

RIC

EA

VE

NU

E

MARKET STREET

HIGH STREET

MILL ROW

THE

VE

NN

EL

BANK LANE

PR

OS

PE

CT

RO

AD

ALF

RE

DS

TR

EE

T

BEATRICE ROAD

BRID

GE

STRE

ET

QUEENS PARADE

HIGH STREET

BIN

GH

AM

ST

RE

ET

BINGHAM LANE

CLI

FT

ON

RO

AD

BINGHAM LANE

CE

NTR

AL

STR

EE

T

HO

LBO

RN

AV

EN

UE

QU

AY

ST

RE

ET

CENTRAL AVENUE

MAI

NST

REET

THE FLAGSHIP CENTRE

MA

INS

TR

EE

T

STANLEY ROAD

ST

AN

LEY

AV

EN

UE

DUFFERIN AVENUERAILWAY COURT

ABBE

YST

REET

Fig 4.8 Diversity of Retail Use: Bangor

0 25 50 75 100 m

2002

UseConvenience

Comparison

Retail Service

Vacant



66

• convenience goods shopping is spread out around the town centre with no real focus;

• services uses are mainly concentrated along the secondary shopping frontages of Duffern

Avenue in the south and High Street to the north, with very few units breaking up the

principal retail frontage along Main Street;

• similarly, with a single large exception on (lower) Main Street, voids are mainly confined

to the High Street and roads leading into Main Street, such as Central Avenue and

Duffern Venue.


4.81 Main Street is the principal focus of activity in Bangor with the top (southern) end featuring

attractive shop fronts, flower beds and trees. (Volume 2, Appendix 8 Photo 8). However, as

Main Street runs northwards (and downhill) towards the marina the public realm becomes

rather tired and uninspiring (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 9). This area should benefit

from the paving improvements undertaken during 2002/2003. Throughout the town centre

litter and graffiti do not appear to be a problem and the environment is generally clear of

clutter. The marina is a beautiful resource immediately adjoining the town centre. This is an

important feature which sets Bangor apart from other BMAP centres (with the exception of

Carrickfergus), yet it is not being utilised to its full potential (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo

10). The area close to the marina is used mainly as a car park and a promenade, and the

adjacent units along Queens Parade fail to inspire – offering amusement arcades and service

uses. The marina and its environs could however be the defining feature of the town,

offering shopping and cafes, bars, restaurants and hosting events/exhibitions. The other

notable area of open space is provided by the environs of the town hall, which brings

welcome greenery to the town centre.

Pedestrian Flow

4.82 Pedestrian flow counts have been carried out at eight locations within Bangor town centre.

The locations and a summary of the results are shown in Figure 4.9 overleaf. Full details of

the pedestrian flows are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 6B.



67

4.83 The highest three day footfall is at 69-73 Main Street (Count Point 5) with a two-way flow

of 34,740. This is the third highest peak flow (after Belfast and Lisburn) within the seven

BMAP town centres as indicated in Figure 4.4 (following page 50). Flows remain relatively

high along all of Main Street, particularly in the south in the vicinity of the post office.

However, numbers of pedestrians tail off rapidly in the side streets (20% or less of peak) and

are also fairly low along the High Street (only 39% of peak). Saturday is (just) the busiest

day (peak flow 12,840), closely followed by Friday (12,360).

Retailer Profile

4.84 The higher quality retail environment offered by the out of centre Bloomfield Shopping

Centre places Bangor town centre at a disadvantage. The current quality of the Flagship

Shopping Centre and the floorspace available therein has not attracted retailers of a calibre

regarded as sufficient to change the inherent retail character of the town centre.

4.85 The opportunity afforded by the closure of SuperValu has demonstrated nonetheless that

appropriately configured and well presented retail accommodation within the town centre

will attract a good quality retail offer which in this case is represented by TK Maxx and JD

Sports. In addition, we understand that Safeway is to shortly commence the development of

a new superstore within the town centre, while the Flagship Centre is to be extended.

4.86 It is considered that Bangor town centre will need to witness similar further developments to

ensure it can compete successfully within the BMAP area. Bangor town centre’s problems

do not in the main relate to competing out of centre schemes, but to inherent physical

disadvantages and the lack of town centre development.

4.87 In our view, the further extension of the retail core in Bangor and the town centre’s ability to

attract further national names is constrained by physical encumbrances. This includes poorly

proportioned retail property on Main Street which is itself extensively gradiented making

comparison shopping difficult for all classes of pedestrians. If suitable accommodation is

made available it is likely that Bangor town centre would benefit from a further in-flow of

retailers; River Island, Internaciona le, Bhs, Next, La Senza and Gadget Shop are some of the

national multiples interested in taking units in prime pitches.



68

4.88 Equally strong retailer demand exists for the Bloomfield Shopping Centre located on the

periphery of Bangor on its ring road. Fortunately for the town centre; this demand cannot be

satisfied due to planning restrictions imposed on the scheme.

Retailer Views1

4.89 Some 40% of shops are less than 46 sq m (500 sq ft) in size. This is the highest proportion of

small units within any BMAP town centre and confirms that deficiencies in the scale and

configuration of retail stock is a major obstacle to improving the town centre’s retail offer.

The proportion of retailers which have refurbished their premises, and extended their store

and product range over the past 12 months is lower than the BMAP town centre average on

all three counts. This is indicative of a centre that will lose ground relative to its competitors

unless material improvements are made.

4.90 Reflecting the lack of change in the town’s retail offer, relatively few retailers had

experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover during the previous 12 months or had to

improve conditions of employment or increase wages more than expected.

4.91 Just 1% of retailers responding to our survey said they expected to cease trading over the

coming 12 months – the lowest proportion of any BMAP town centre. However, plans to

refurbish, extend salespace, increase the product range and employ more staff were all well

below the BMAP average.

4.92 The turnover performance of retailers in Bangor town centre is relatively healthy. Overall,

sales rose by 6% during the previous 12 months, the biggest percentage rise of any BMAP

centre. Convenience and comparison retailers did equally well. Profitability was not as good,

however, with profits falling by 2%. This was nevertheless the second best performance of

any BMAP centre (only Carrickfergus did better). Significantly, it is stores occupying the

larger units (93 sq m plus) that perform best in Bangor town centre.

4.93 Looking ahead, retailers were fairly optimistic with 48% expecting their turnover to increase

with just 4% anticipating a fall in sales.

1 Full results of the retailer survey for Bangor town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



69

4.94 Existing retailers in Bangor town centre are broadly happy with the pitch of their shop and

standard of accommodation. However, there is a significant amount of dissatisfaction with

the town’s retail offer and layout; 50% feel the offer is too downmarket (just 3% consider it

is too upmarket), whilst 43% think there are not enough large stores (only 14% believe the

opposite). Furthermore, 77% of retailers consider the present number of vacant units is too

high, although the number of services is deemed by a majority to be acceptable.

4.95 The overall ‘mixed’ impression of Bangor as a retail location is borne out by the fact that

35% of retailers feel the town centre’s trading performance has improved over the past five

years, whilst 44% believe it has worsened (the balance of 21% think it is about the same).

This is further reflected by the fact that retailers give Bangor a negative score against nine of

13 performance indicators (parking charges, rents and rates and liveliness / street life /

character of the centre perform worse) and a positive score against four. The quality and

number of places to eat and drink and entertainment / leisure facilities are considered to be

improving, although many other indicators are deemed to have got worse.

4.96 Dunnes Store is singled out as the principal existing anchor retailer in the town centre, whilst

Next, River Island, Marks & Spencer and fashion shops in general have been identified as

those stores which most retailers would like to see represented.

4.97 Looking to the future, the need to improve the appearance of the town’s streets and open

spaces is the most important issue facing the town (the only BMAP centre to identify this as

the major problem), while, in addition, there is a strong desire for a significant improvement

in the number and range of national multiple retailers. Some 76% of retailers are supportive

of adding to the amount of retail floorspace in the town centre to enable new retailers to

locate in the centre.

Shop Rents

4.98 Prime retail rents within Bangor town centre over the past seven years are summarised in

Table 4.10 overleaf. During this period rents have risen by 45% from a low base of £431

psm in 1996, the fourth highest gain amongst the BMAP centres, but remain (in 2003) well

behind the £2,691 psm and £915 psm levels of Belfast and Lisburn City Centres



70

respectively. Figures 4.5a and 4.5b (page 55) compare the performance of prime rents in

Bangor with those in the other BMAP centres since 1996.

Table 4.10 Prime Rents in Bangor Town Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 431 1997 484 1998 484 1999 538 2000 538 2001 538 2002 592 2003 624


Vacancy Rates

4.99 Data from The Planning Service confirms that in 2001 there was 6,017 sq m net of vacant

retail floorspace in Bangor town centre (Table 4.5, page 54). This is the highest total of any

BMAP centre other than Belfast City Centre.

4.100 The relatively high total of voids is confirmed by the Experian data in Table 4.6 (page 58),

which indicates that the number of vacant units and amount of vacant floorspace is 78% and

87% respectively above the UK average. Given that there are a number of retailers seeking

representation in the town centre it is clear that many of the available units do not meet

current retailer operating requirements. This is due to their small size and poor configuration,

combined with the fact that many are sited in secondary locations well away from the prime

pitch (see Figure 4.8 and Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 11).

Carrickfergus Town Centre

Accessibility

4.101 Carrickfergus town centre is accessible by a choice of modes of transport, although the car is

the principal mode used by 59% of shoppers, including 19% as a passenger. To

accommodate these trips Carrickfergus has an estimated 530 public car parking spaces,



71

which are considered reasonably adequate, although 28% of shoppers would like to see

improved car parking and retailers are also rather critical of customer parking facilities.

Some 7% of shoppers access the town by taxi, the highest proportion of any BMAP centre.

Significantly, 27% of shoppers walk into the town centre to shop (only at Carryduff and

Holywood are the proportions higher), due in part to the proximity of residential areas and

the shortage of other shopping options for those who live nearby. Bus usage is very low (4%

of shoppers), a characteristic it shares with the other smaller BMAP centres – only in Belfast

City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and Bangor does it exceed 10%. It appears that shoppers

choose either to walk into the town centre if they live nearby or if they live further afield to

travel by car/taxi. Access for cyclists and disabled appears to be adequate.

Customer Views1

4.102 Nine out of 10 people visiting Carrickfergus town centre do so to shop, whilst 94% travel

from home. 14% of visitors shop for two hours or more, and only at Caryduff and Holywood

are the proportions lower. This reflects the limited retail offer available.

4.103 Buying conversion rates for Carrickfergus are surprisingly reasonable. Since leakage of

comparison goods expenditure from the town is very high (see Section 3), this suggests

many shoppers must have low expectations, which are largely met. This view is reinforced

by evidence from the survey which confirms that only 5% of shoppers using Carrickfergus

actually nominate the town as their main centre for non-food shopping. In contrast, 63%

choose Belfast City Centre and 13% the Abbey Centre. Clearly, Carrickfergus is used

primarily for food and incidental non-food shopping.

4.104 Shopper expenditure in Carrickfergus is mainly on food to take home with the average trip

spend of £28 being second only to Ballyclare amongst the BMAP centres. In contrast,

average trip expenditure on non-food items is low at just £8, and only at Holywood and

Caryduff is the figure lower. The dominance of food spend is reflected in the shoppers

choice of Tesco and Iceland as the two anchor stores within the town centre.

4.105 A large majority of shoppers feel there are not enough large stores in Carrickfergus town

centre and that the retail offer is too downmarket. However, most feel the layout of the

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Carrickfergus town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



72

centre is ‘fine as it is’. Historic, nice and scruffy are the three phrases that most commonly

describe the town centre, whilst leisure facilities are rated as being adequate, except for ten-

pin bowling and theatre / concert venues which score badly. Looking ahead, a better variety

and quality of shopping is what shoppers most want to see in Carrickfergus, and Marks &

Spencer, Dunnes Stores and budget shops such as Primark, Peacocks and New Look have

been identified by shoppers as the retailers they would most like to see represented.

Diversity of Uses

4.106 Figure 4.1 (following page 48) compares the retail floorspace of Carrickfergus with that

available in the other BMAP town centres. The graph confirms that there is 19,861 sq m net

of stock in the town centre, which makes it the fourth largest BMAP centre. However, in

terms of non-bulky comparison floorspace Carrickfergus is on a par with Ballyclare,

Holywood and Carryduff.

4.107 The deficiency in non-bulky comparison goods shopping provision is evident from Figure

4.1 (following page 48) and Table 4.11, which confirms that it accounts for only 15% of the

total stock (only Carryduff has a lower proportion). Indeed, there is more floorspace taken up

by services and voids. The table also highlights the important contribution of convenience

goods shopping.

Table 4.11 Retail Floorspace in Carrickfergus Town Centre





4.108 The bias towards food shopping provision is further highlighted by Table 4.12, which

compares representation of the main types of uses against the national average. This table

also confirms the relative under-supply of comparison goods floorspace. Of course, as



73

demonstrated by the analysis in Section 3, this mix of retail provision accounts for the much

higher levels of retained expenditure for convenience rather than comparison shopping.

Table 4.12 Diversity of Uses: Carrickfergus Town Centre





4.109 The data in Table 4.12 is presented in Figure 4.10 overleaf. This map illustrates a number of

key points about the retail offer and layout of Carrickfergus town centre. These are as

follows:-

• convenience goods shopping is located throughout the town centre, including along North

Street; the two principal food stores – Tesco (top) and the Co-op (bottom) are readily

identified;

• comparison goods retailing is also scattered throughout the town centre with no

concentration of provision discernable in the principal shopping streets;

• service uses are located throughout the town centre, but are particularly evident in the

secondary shopping areas;

• the large number of vacant units appear to be concentrated in three clusters – in West and

Cheston Streets, and within The De Courcy Centre.


4.110 The historic nature, the tone of which is set by Carrickfergus castle (Volume 2, Appendix 8,

Photo 12), is well promoted and clearly evident through the public realm. This is illustrated

by the excellent mural opposite the town hall (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 13), which is

ES

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ES

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IRISH QUARTER WEST

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ALBERT ROAD

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IRISH QUARTER SOUTH

MARKET PLACE

IRISH QUARTER SOUTH

GOVERNORS PLACE

MARINE HIG

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MARINE HIGHWAY

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ANTRIMSTREET

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LANCASTERIAN STREET

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ALB

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RODGERS QUAY

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Fig 4.10 Diversity of Retail Use: Carrickfergus

0 25 50 75 100 m

2001

UseConvenience

Comparison

Retail Service

Vacant



74

itself a landmark building. The heritage is further reflected in the lamp posts and street

furniture along West Street, High Street and in Market Place. In addition, the town wall

remains a feature to the north and east of the town centre. Reflecting these many features a

large number of shoppers and retailers view the town as “historic”.

4.111 Carrickfergus town centre has limited open space except around the seafront, where the

residential development at the Waterfront and marine promenade has created a pleasant

place to relax away from traffic (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 14). Many shoppers and

retailers feel that the town centre is scruffy, and large numbers would like to see it made

tidier and cleaner.

Pedestrian Flow

4.112 Pedestrian flow counts have been undertaken at seven locations in Carrickfergus town centre

over a period of three days. Figure 4.11 overleaf shows the locations of the count points and

summarises the key results. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Volume 2,

Appendix 6B.

4.113 The highest three day footfall is at the entrance to the Co-op supermarket (Count Point 8)

with a two-way flow of 13,770. This total is the third lowest of the BMAP centres (see

Figure 4.4, following page 50). Significantly, this flow is not even within the heart of the

town centre, but is at Rodgers Quay. The busiest locations within the central area are North

Street (94% of peak flow) and Market Street (85%). Flows at the entrances to the De

Courcey Centre fall within the range 60% - 80% of peak. Closer inspection of the pedestrian

flow data reveals that the entrance to the Co-op is the busiest location on a Saturday, whilst

count points within the central area are marginally busier on weekdays.

Retailer Profile

4.114 Carrickfergus suffers from its close proximity to Newtownabbey losing a significant amount

of consumer spending to the Abbey Centre, in addition to the considerable total of

expenditure which flows into Belfast City Centre. Such is the retail mix and the quantity of

retail provision at the Abbey Centre that any national retail demand for Carrickfergus comes

from those retailers who are unable to meet the rental demands being imposed by the higher



75

quality provision at Newtownabbey. What demand there is for representation in

Carrickfergus comes from value orientated retailers, such as Savers and Mark One, which

are looking for prime locations.

4.115 The physical fabric of Carrickfergus has not, to date, created the opportunity of reversing the

trend of comparison goods expenditure leakage, and significant new town centre

development must be encouraged if the town is to provide a meaningful retail offer which

will retain a larger share of available spend. Opportunities do exist to expand the retail core

in Carrickfergus through an extension of the existing De Courcy centre. The possible

relocation of Tesco from this scheme to an edge of town centre site could provide an

opportunity to locate a major comparison goods retail offer within the town centre yet also

retain a food offer for the town. Potential improvements to North Street, particularly through

the creation of appropriately sized retail units, would be beneficial for the regeneration of the

town centre.

Retailer Views1

4.116 According to our survey, two-thirds of retailers in Carrrickfergus town centre are

independents, whilst almost half have been established for six years or more. Very few

retailers had refurbished or extended their shops during the previous 12 months, although a

significant minority (40%) had improved their product range. For the coming year, 43%

expect to increase their product range (double the BMAP average), whilst 20% and 11%

intend to refurbish their shop and employ more staff respectively, both in line with the

BMAP average.

4.117 Reflecting the lack of change in the town centre retail offer, high staff turnover, and higher

than anticipated pay and other conditions of employment are not deemed by retailers to be

problems. Nevertheless, 5% of stores responding to our survey said they intended to close

down within the next year.

4.118 On average, retailers achieved sales growth of 3% over the previous 12 months, with the

multiples and those occupying the larger units doing the best. In comparison, retailer

1 Full results of the retailer survey for Carrickfergus town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



76

profitability over the same period remained static, which ranks as a good performance

relative to many other BMAP centres.

4.119 Looking forward, retailers in Carrickfergus remain upbeat, with 56% expecting their

turnover to rise (the highest proportion of any BMAP centre), with just 11% anticipating a

fall.

4.120 Although existing retailers in Carrickfergus are generally happy with their standard of shop

accommodation and pitch, around nine in 10 feel the market position of the town centre is

‘too downmarket’, whilst 71% think there are not enough larger stores (the highest

proportion for any BMAP centre in both cases). Furthermore, a significant minority of

retailers (37%) consider the town centre is too spread out; only at Carryduff (50%) is the

proportion higher. In addition, 82% of retaile rs feel there are too many vacant units in the

town centre, although the number of service uses is more acceptable . This general negative

perception towards Carrickfergus as a retail location is borne out by the fact that 59% of

retailers feel the trading performance of the town centre has declined over the past five years,

whereas 31% consider is has got stronger. Moreover, retailers give Carrickfergus negative

scores against 11 of 13 performance indicators; only the number of places to eat and drink

and public transport services achieve positive ratings. All indicators, except catering

facilities and entertainment / leisure facilities, are also felt to be getting worse.

4.121 Reflecting the importance of food retailing to the retail economy of the town centre, it is not

surprising that Tesco and the Co-op are singled out as the two key anchor stores by retailers.

Next, Marks & Spencer, Dunnes Stores and Boots are identified as the stores retailers would

most like to see represented in the town centre.

4.122 Looking ahead, retailers consider the need for more multiples and improvements to the

quality of the retail offer are the most important issues facing the town. In support of this,

more than three-quarters of retailers are in favour of additional floorspace being provided in

Carrickfergus town centre.



77

Shop Rents

4.123 Prime rents in Carrickfergus town centre are estimated to have risen by 48% since 1996 to

some £289 psm in 2003. Although this is the second strongest performance of any BMAP

centre (see Figure 4.5a, page 55), the rise has been from a very low base, and values remain

amongst the lowest in the BMA (see Figure 4.5b, page 55). Table 4.13 summarises the

prime rents for the past seven years.

Table 4.13 Prime Rents in Carrickfergus Town Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 195 1997 195 1998 204 1999 208 2000 233 2001 250 2002 289 2003 289


Vacancy Rates

4.124 The Planning Service floorspace data for 2001 confirms that there was 3,166 sq m net of

vacant floorspace in Carrickfergus town centre (see Table 4.11, page 72). This total exceeds

the amount of non-bulky comparison goods and, according to Table 4.12 (page 73), is well

over double the national average level. The incidence of voids is clearly too high, yet vacant

units in secondary areas of the town centre may not be attractive to retailers interested in

representation in the town (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 15).

Caryduff Town Centre

Accessibility

4.125 A key feature of Carryduff is its accessibility. In our survey, 46% of shoppers use the phrase

“easy to get to” to describe the town centre, the highest proportion of any BMAP centre. The

car is the main mode of transport for shoppers using Carryduff; 55% drive and 9% travel as a



78

passenger. There is little apparent need to improve parking facilities or reduce traffic

congestion in the centre. Around one-third of shoppers walk to Carryduff (the biggest

proportion of any BMAP centre), indicating that the centre is readily accessible by foot from

its localised catchment area. There appears to be little need to increase the extent of

pedestrianisation. Only 2% of people travel to the centre by bus, yet there is no significant

demand to improve the service. Conditions for those with mobility handicaps and cyclists

appear reasonable . Cyclists benefit from the relatively low traffic volumes and those with

mobility handicaps benefit from the at-grade parking at the Carryduff Shopping Centre.

Customer Views1

4.126 Just over 80% of people visit Carryduff town centre primarily to shop and 89% of these

travel from home. Less than 3% shop for two hours or more, by far the lowest proportion of

any BMAP centre. The short average duration of stay is indicative of the small size of the

centre and the limited retail offer available.

4.127 Buying conversion rates are low for most kinds of comparison goods, especially non-bulky

items such as clothing, footwear and jewellery; indeed, only for food to take home and

chemists goods does the centre adequately meet the needs of its catchment population.

4.128 The average expenditure per party per trip in Caryduff town centre is £24; this is the second

lowest amongst the BMAP centres, only Holywood (£13) is lower. Food to take home

accounts for most of this spend. SuperValu, is rated by shoppers as the most important store

in the town centre, reflecting the dominance of food retailing to the centre’s viability. “Easy

to get to”, “safe” and “nice” are the three phrases that most commonly describe the existing

town centre.

4.129 Carryduff scores well with shoppers in relation to the size of the shops, its market position

and layout, although many kinds of leisure facilities are considered to be inadequate,

including cinemas, swimming, bingo, ten-pin bowling and theatre / concert venues.

However, all of these would not necessarily be expected to be provided in a small centre.

Looking ahead, most shoppers indicate a need for a wider choice of shops, particularly

clothing stores, and better public toilets.

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Carryduff town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



79

Diversity of Uses

4.130 The retail floorspace in Carryduff town centre is compared to that available in the other

BMAP centres in Figure 4.1 (following page 48). In total there is just 7,571 sq m net, which

makes it the smallest centre, although of a broadly similar scale to Ballyclare and Holywood.

4.131 Table 4.14 disaggregates the available retail floorspace by type of use. This confirms that

there is only 258 sq m net of non-bulky comparison goods shopping, which is an almost

negligible total for a town centre. Not surprisingly, it accounts for only 4% of the floorspace

total.

Table 4.14 Retail Floorspace in Carryduff Town Centre .



Convenience 13 3,819 50 Non-Bulky Comparison 4 258 4 Bulky Comparison 2 2,074 27 Retail Services 23 994 13 Vacant 9 426 6 Total 51 7,571 100


4.132 Aside from the retail offer there are few other uses at Carryduff, although a library and

health centre are present.

4.133 The map in Figure 4.12 overleaf confirms the limited scale and range of uses within

Carryduff town centre.1 The key points are as follows:-

• the dominant use is convenience; the shopping mall is anchored by a SuperValu

supermarket and there are other units both inside and outside the shopping centre;

• all of the limited number of comparison goods shops are located within the mall;

• the service uses are scattered throughout the town centre;

1 The map only shows uses trading at ground floor level.



80

• there are very few voids.


4.134 In general the retail environment is considered satisfactory by shoppers and retailers, whilst

15% of shoppers describe the centre as ‘safe’, which is the highest of any BMAP centre. In

addition, the town centre is functional in terms of lighting, but has only modest landscaping.

(Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 17). The centre is free of litter (Volume 2, Appendix 8,

Photo 16) and graffiti does not appear to be a problem.

Pedestrian Flow

4.135 Pedestrian flow counts have been carried out at seven locations within Carryduff town centre

over a three day period. Figure 4.13 overleaf shows the locations of the count points and

summarises the main results. Full details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Volume 2,

Appendix 6B.

4.136 The highest three day footfall is at the road entrance to the Shopping Centre (Count Point 3)

with a two-way flow of 13,770. As shown in Figure 4.4 (following page 50), this is the

second lowest peak flow amongst the BMAP centres (only Ballyclare is lower). Flows are

almost as high at the entrance to the shopping centre itself (93% of peak), but are very low

(40% of peak or less) throughout the rest of the town centre. Saturday is only marginally the

busiest day with a peak flow of 5,190 compared to 5,130 on a Friday and 3,570 on a

Monday. It therefore appears that at the weekend the additional number of people who

normally shop do so at centres other than Carryduff.

Retailer Profile

4.137 The range of retailers present is very limited and Carryduff barely justifies its town centre

definition. SuperValu is the largest store by far and anchors the mall. There are few other

comparison retailers and the town centre as a whole has a strong representation of service

uses, both retail and financial. The town centre is too small to attract the mainstream national

multiples and there is little demand for representation, other than from local businesses.



81

Retailer Views1

4.138 According to our survey, the vast majority of retailers at Carryduff are independents, have

been established in the centre for a long time and occupy relatively small units. During the

12 months prior to the survey, the proportion of traders refurbishing and/or extending their

premises was the lowest of all the BMAP centres. The proportion expanding their product

range was also below the BMAP average. Relatively few have experienced problems of high

staff turnover and wage inflation.

4.139 For the coming year, one in eight retailers said they would close down; the largest proportion

amongst the BMAP centres. For those continuing to trade, many, however, had plans to

refurbish and improve their product range.

4.140 On average, retail turnover within Carryduff town centre fell by 19% during the 12 months

prior to the survey, the biggest fall amongst the seven BMAP centres. Comparison goods

traders and independents did particularly badly (down 21%). Store profitability was even

worse; down 31% across the board and 36% amongst independents. Although 29% of

retailers thought their sales would increase over the coming year (itself the lowest proportion

of any BMAP centre) (14% thought they would decline), this is, of course, coming off a low

base. Clearly, sales performance is sluggish at Carryduff and this is confirmed by the fact

that two-thirds of traders consider the sales performance of the town centre has got worse

over the past five years, while the remaining third think it has stayed “about the same”. Not a

single retailer believes that the town’s trading performance has grown stronger – the only

BMAP centre to record a zero response.

4.141 Around 50% of retailers in Carryduff rate the pitch of their shops and standard of

accommodation as average or poor. This is the worst performance amongst the BMAP town

centres and suggests the retail stock is not really meeting their requirements. Many traders

also feel that the town centre’s market position is “too downmarket”, it contains too few

large stores and is too spread out. Retailers also think there are too many vacant units,

although service business representation – which is much higher – is considered acceptable.

This suggests a strong preference for services uses over voids, a finding often associated

with smaller and less successful centres. Although SuperValu is the largest store in

1 Full results of the retailer survey for Carryduff town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



82

Carryduff it is not nominated by retailers as playing a major role in attracting shoppers into

the town.

4.142 Looking ahead, retailers would like to see Tesco locate within the town centre, whilst there

is also a lot of support for Next. In general, there is a requirement for a stronger retail offer

to be provided, although support for the provision for additional retail floorspace is only

lukewarm. The inadequacy of public toilets is also singled out as a major drawback.

Shop Rents

4.143 Prime retail rents in Carryduff town centre have risen by just 7% in seven years, from £193

psm in 1996 to £206 psm in 2003. As confirmed by Figures 4.5a and 4.5b (page 55) this

rental performance is the worst of any BMAP centre and the current rental value is the

lowest amongst the same centres. This record is indicative of a centre where the demand for

retailer representation is low and there is an absence of multiples (who can afford to pay

higher rents) in the market. Table 4.15 sets out the estimated rental values since 1996.

Table 4.15 Prime Rents in Carryduff Town Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 193 1997 193 1998 207 1999 206 2000 206 2001 206 2002 206 2003 206


Vacancy Rates

4.144 Floorspace data from The Planning Service confirms that in 2001 there was just 426 sq m net

of vacant floorspace in the town centre. This represents just 6% of the overall retail

floorspace stock (Table 4.14, page 79) – the lowest proportion of any BMAP centre.

However, this data gives an impression of vitality and viability which does not really exist.

More telling is the statistic that the floorspace taken-up by voids is two-thirds higher than



83

that for non-bulky comparison goods, which is normally the mainstay of town centres. In

reality, although there are few vacant units at Carryduff, this is primarily because of the large

number of service uses present. These businesses provide a useful function, but do little to

add to the attraction of the town centre as a retail destination.


Accessibility

4.145 The car is the main mode of transport for Holywood shoppers. Our survey indicates that 53%

drive and 7% a travel as passengers. To accommodate these trips there is the main Church

Road car park and three other at-grade car parks in the town centre. It appears, however, that

following the redevelopment of former car parks for other uses, present parking facilities are

potentially inadequate; 51% of shoppers, for example, would like to see parking facilities

improved, whilst 45% of retailers are critical of parking availability. The High Street forms

the spine of the town and despite the bypass, there are heavy traffic volumes through the

heart of the centre, which shoppers and retailers would like to see reduced.

4.146 Walking is the other main means of accessing Holywood town centre, with just under one

third of shoppers using this mode. However, 27% of shoppers would welcome improvements

to the pedestrian environment, due in part to the heavy traffic levels and standard width

pavements. Few shoppers travel by bus and train; these modes being used for only 5% and

2% of shopping trips respectively. Facilities for cyclists appear to be adequate. Shoppers

with mobility handicaps would benefit from wider pavements and more pedestrian crossing

points along the High Street.

Customer Views 1

4.147 The main reason people come to Holywood is to shop (62%), although the proportion is the

lowest amongst the BMAP town centres. Significantly, 13% visit just to browse and window

shop, double that of any other BMAP centre. This reflects the retail offer available (gifts,

antiques, art galleries etc) and the large number of cafés and coffee shops. Around three-

quarters of trips are made from the home, although a significant 15% of trips are linked with

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Holywood town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



84

work (e.g. possibly Belfast commuters stopping off on the way home). Shopping trips are

made frequently through the week and are short in duration with 77% lasting less than one

hour.

4.148 Food to take home and incidental items (e.g. chemists goods) are the main goods bought and

have high conversion rates, in contrast with comparison goods such as clothing and

footwear. The average spend per trip is £13, two thirds of which is spent on food to take

home. Accordingly, shoppers consider the most important shop to be Tesco.

4.149 Only 5% of Holywood shoppers actually use the town as their main non-food centre, whilst

36% and 29% choose Belfast City Centre and Bangor respectively. This accounts for the

high leakage of non-bulky comparison goods expenditure identif ied in Section 3.

Nethertheless, the town scores well in relation to its retail mix, market position and layout.

4.150 Evening entertainment leisure facilities such as restaurants and wine bars/pubs are rated

highly. In contrast, cinemas, theatres and swimming pools are rated poorly, though we would

not expect a small town close to Belfast and Bangor to offer such facilities locally.

4.151 Overall the general impression of Holywood is favourable, with shoppers describing the

centre as “attractive”, “nice” and “historic”. Looking to the future, shoppers would most like

to see improvements in the range and quality of shops (particularly clothing and shoe shops)

and a reduction in traffic congestion levels.

Diversity of Uses

4.152 The retail floorspace in Holywood town centre relative to that available in the other BMAP

centres is shown in Figure 4.1 (following page 48). In total there is 8,460 sq m net, which

makes it the second smallest BMAP centre (only Carryduff is smaller).

4.153 Table 4.16 overleaf shows that there is roughly an even split of non-bulky comparison

goods, convenience goods and retail service floorspace with little of the available stock

vacant or occupied by bulky comparison goods retailers. Such a diversity of uses is

consistent with that of a small, balanced town centre.



85

4.154 The town centre has a relatively large number of restaurants, pubs and cafes. However, the

remainder of the leisure offer is not strong, although this is not surprising given the small

size of the town and it’s proximity to Belfast and Bangor.

Table 4.16 Retail Floorspace in Holywood Town Centre .



Convenience 16 2,524 30 Non-Bulky Comparison 36 2,633 31 Bulky Comparison 5 332 4 Retail Services 61 2,269 27 Vacant 21 702 8 Total 139 8,460 100


4.155 Information on diversity of uses within Holywood town centre is shown on the map in

Figure 4.14 overleaf. The key points are as follows:-

• the linear High Street forms the spine of the town, along which the majority of retail

uses are located;

• the comparison goods retail offer is fragmented with no real concentration of activity;

the main cluster is in fact in Church Road, away from the primary shopping area;

• the convenience retail offer is dominated by the Tesco store at the junction of High

Street and Church Road; other convenience uses are spread out along High Street;

• the high proportion of service uses is evident thought the town centre;

• although vacancy is not a particular problem, there is unfortunately a concentration of

voids along the central section of High Street.



86


4.156 Holywood is a linear town situated along the length of High Street. Consequently, the

heavily trafficked road is a rather dominant environmental feature, which retailers and

shoppers would like to see mitigated. The impact of heavy volumes of traffic is not lessened

by the presence of standard (narrow) paving and limited opportunities for pedestrians to

cross the road.

4.157 The urban form of the centre means that there is little open space, although public seating is

provided where the limited opportunities allow. The potential amenity afforded by the

waterfront and esplanade is constrained by the low level of the land and necessarily high sea

defences. The area also appears “cut off” from the town centre by the by-pass, although there

is access along Shore Road. The clustering of much of the retail activity along the High

Street promotes legibility. Ground floor retail has created opportunities for residential use

above (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 18), which aids the town’s vitality and fosters a sense

of civic ownership. Many of the retail units have attractive shop frontages (Volume 2,

Appendix 8, Photo 19) and the town is relatively free of litter and graffiti.

Pedestrian Flow

4.158 As part of the study, we undertook pedestrian flow counts at eight locations within

Holywood town centre over a period of three days. Figure 4.15 overleaf shows the locations

of the count points and summarises the main results. Full details of the pedestrian flows are

set out in Volume 2, Appendix 6B.

4.159 The highest level of footfall over the three survey days (peak flow) was count point 3, 101-

105 High Street, with a total two way flow of 20,040. Figure 4.4 (following page 50) shows

that this is the fourth highest level of peak pedestrian footfall amongst the BMAP centres.

This indicates that Holywood is punching above its weight, with heavier footfall figures than

larger centres such as Carrickfergus and Ballyclare. Within Holywood flows remain strong

northwards along the High Street and Church Road, but diminish markedly southwards

along the High Street.



87

4.160 Saturday is the busiest day, but marginally so, with a two way peak flow of 7,200 compared

to 6,150 on Friday and 6,690 on Monday. This supports the assertion that the town’s primary

role is as a convenience goods and service centre and that the main non-food shopping on

Saturday is carried out at other centres such as Belfast and Bangor.

Retailer Profile

4.161 Although there is an approximately even floorspace split between convenience, comparison

and service uses, the only multiples present are in the convenience goods sector (Tesco and

Baird's). In terms of comparison goods, the offer is focused on the independent sector with a

number of up-market speciality outlets such as The Bridal Suite and Charles Gilmore Fine

Art Dealers. This has synergies with the retail service offer which includes independent up-

market outlets such as Patrick Mulholland Hairdressers and Honeysuckle Florists, together

with a strong café/restaurant offer. Looking to the future, Holywood may need to consolidate

its convenience goods offer to compete effectively with out of centre locations such as the

Tesco store at Knocknagoney Road. There is also an opportunity for the town to build on its

rather unique niche fashion, arts/craft and food and drink offer.

Retailers Views 1

4.162 According to our survey 75% of Holywood businesses are independent (non-multiple)

retailers, the second highest proportion amongst the BMAP centres. Therefore, the

representation of regional and national multiples is low. Holywood retailers are long

established, nearly half having been in the town for over 10 years.

4.163 The number of retailers which had undergone major refurbishment or altered their product

ranges over the last 12 months has been below the BMAP average, although twice the

average number of retailers had increased their shop floorspace.

4.164 Reflecting the lack of change in the town’s retail offer during the previous 12 months prior

to our survey, relatively few retailers had experienced higher than antic ipated staff turnover

or had to improve conditions of employment or increase wages more than expected.

1 Detailed results of the retailer survey for Holywood town centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



88

4.165 At the time of the survey, just 6% of retailers expected to cease trading within the next 12

months, whilst 12% plan to refurbish their shop and 8% increase their product ranges (both

well below the BMAP average). However, 19% intend to employ more staff (twice the

BMAP average).

4.166 Holywood retailers experienced a decline in sales of 5% during the 12 months prior to the

survey, with the service sector faring worst, down 9%. Store profitability also declined over

the same period, falling by 15% across all sectors, with the convenience sector experiencing

a 19% fall. It appears that this sector is particular struggling in the face of sustained

competition from the large, modern Tesco store at Knocknagoney Road.

4.167 Looking ahead, retailers are more optimistic with 42% anticipating an increase in turnover

against 13% expecting a decrease in sales (32% expect their sales to remain static, whilst

13% didn’t know).

4.168 Retailers are generally satisfied with their own pitch and content with their standard of

accommodation. However, there is less satisfaction with the town centre as a whole , which is

considered to be “too downmarket” (39%) and “too congested” (49%). Although vacancy is

relatively low, almost two-thirds of retailers consider it is unacceptable. They appear less

concerned with the number of service uses in the town centre. Overall, 59% of retailers

consider that Holywood’s trading performance has weakened over the last five years, whilst

only 28% feel that it has improved. The quality of places to eat and drink is judged to be the

only performance indicator to have improved over the 12 months prior to our survey, and is

rated along with shopper safety levels as a key positive aspect of Holywood. There is

particular criticism of entertainment and leisure facilities, traffic congestion, levels of rents

and rates and the availability of parking.

4.169 Tesco is considered to be the most important retailer in town centre. Retailers would like to

see Marks & Spencer and Next locate in the town, and 76% would support the development

of additional floorspace to accommodate new arrivals.

4.170 The most important issues facing the town centre are considered to be enhancing the retail

offer by improving the range and quality of shops (from multiples though to local /speciality

retailers), reducing traffic congestion and improving car parking.



89

Shop Rents

4.171 The prime retail rent in Holywood is £253 per sq m and has remained at this level since

1997. Only at Ballyclare and Carryduff is the rent lower amongst the BMAP centres (see

Figures 4.5a and 4.5b, page 55). The low rental value and its sluggish performance over the

past six years are indicative of a centre that has failed to attract material levels of new retailer

representation. Table 4.17 below sets out the estimated rental values in Holywood since

1996.

Table 4.17 Prime Rents in Holywood Town Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 233 1997 253 1998 253 1999 253 2000 253 2001 253 2002 253 2003 253


Vacancy Rates

4.172 Floorspace data from The Planning Service confirms that in 2001 there was 702 sq m of

vacant floorspace, which represents 8% of Holywood’s total retail floorspace (Table 4.16,

page 85). This is the lowest proportion of vacancy within any BMAP centre. There is a slight

clustering of vacant units in the central section of the High Street (Figure 4.14, following

page 85) but overall, the vacancy rate considered to be is not excessive, since a certain

degree of vacancy is required in order that the lettings market is not supply constrained.

Lisburn City Centre

Accessibility

4.173 Accessibility appears to be a positive feature of Lisburn with 36% of shoppers using the

phrase “easy to get to” to describe the city centre (the second highest proportion amongst the



90

BMAP centres). The car is the main mode of transport for shoppers with 41% driving and a

further 20% travelling as passengers. To accommodate these trips there are approximately

1,400 spaces in 11 public car parks throughout the city centre. Shoppers do not consider

improving car park facilities or reducing traffic congestion levels to be key areas in need of

improvement. However, this contrasts with the view of retailers, who consider that reducing

traffic congestion levels to be the most important issue facing the city. After the car, walking

is the next most common mode of transport to access the city centre (24%), followed by the

bus (13%) and taxi (3%).

4.174 Lisburn City Centre is very pedestrian friendly and accessible for those with mobility

handicaps as a large area of the retail core – Bow Street, Bow Street Mall, Lisburn Square

and part of Market Square – is pedestrianised.

Customer Views1

4.175 Some 80% of people visit Lisburn City Centre primarily to shop and almost nine in 10 travel

from home to do so. A significant 45% shop for two hours or more, the second highest

proportion in BMAP after Belfast City Centre (52%). This reflects the relatively extensive

retail offer available.

4.176 Buying conversion rates are relatively high for most kinds of comparison goods, particularly

non-bulky items such as clothing and jewellery. The city centre also manages to retain a high

level of purchases for goods such as shoes, gifts and CDs / tapes. The strong performance of

Lisburn is borne out by the fact that no less than 77% of shoppers nominate the city centre as

their main centre for non-food shopping; the highest proportion for any BMAP centre,

including Belfast City Centre (just 62%). Significantly, no shoppers mention the nearby

Sprucefield Shopping Centre.

4.177 The average expenditure per party per trip in Lisburn City Centre is £39, of which around

two-thirds is spent on comparison goods and most of the rest on food to take home. This is

the most healthy mix of expenditure of all the BMAP centres; normally one of the sectors is

weak. It is reflected by the fact that Next, Greens (a food store) and Iceland are highlighted

by shoppers as the most important stores in the city centre.

1 Detailed results of the shopper survey for Lisburn City Centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 4C.



91

4.178 Lisburn City Centre’s mix of stores, market position and layout are all highly regarded by

shoppers, whilst ‘easy to get to’, ‘lively’ and ‘nice’ are the three phrases most commonly

used to describe the centre. In contrast to its retail provision, opinion of Lisburn’s leisure

facilities is less positive, with its night clubs/discos and pubs/bars scoring worst suggesting

that improvements to the city centre’s evening economy may be necessary. Looking to the

future, the need for more and better public toilets is the facility which is singled out by

shoppers as being most important.

Diversity of Uses

4.179 Figure 4.1 (following page 48), which compares the retail floorspace stock of Lisburn City

Centre against that of the other BMAP centres, confirms that the centre is (just) the second

largest in the BMA after Belfast City Centre, although the gulf between them is huge.

4.180 Table 4.18 disaggregates the entire 45,647 sq m net of retail floorspace by type of use. This

indicates that half of the total stock is devoted to comparison goods retailing, which is the

second highest proportion of any BMAP centre after Belfast.

Table 4.18 Retail Floorspace in Lisburn City Centre .





4.181 The allocation of retail floorspace is analysed further in Table 4.19 overleaf. This again

reinforces the importance of Lisburn City Centre’s comparison goods retail offer, a feature

which is a characteristic of a higher order centre.



92

Table 4.19 Diversity of Uses: Lisburn City Centre





4.182 In addition to retail, Lisburn contains a range of leisure, civic and cultural amenities,

although, as highlighted above, there still appears scope to enhance the city centre’s evening

economy (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 20).

4.183 Figure 4.16 overleaf illustrates the information in Table 4.19 in map form. The key points

are as follows:-

• convenience goods retailing is spread throughout the city centre, with a small number of

large units fronting Bow Street;

• comparison goods shopping dominates most parts of the city centre, but is especially

concentrated within the Bow Street Mall, along the pedestrianised Bow Street itself and

on the north side of Market Square;

• service uses are generally found on the periphery of the city centre, particularly in Bridge

Street and on Antrim Street which runs north from Bow Street;

• voids are similarly located mainly in secondary areas, with Bridge and Castle streets the

principal locations; a cluster of small units in the Bow Street Mall is shown as vacant

because their redevelopment as part of an extension is awaited.


4.184 Lisburn has an attractive city centre, which shoppers and retailers agree does not require

signif icant environmental improvement. It is linear in form which promotes legibility, the

MCKEOWN STREET

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LETTING AGENTS : COLLIERS, CONRAD RITBLAT & ERDMAN

OPENING DATE: SEPTEMBER 2002

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Fig 4.16 Diversity of Retail Use: Lisburn

0 25 50 75 100 m

2002

UseConvenience

Comparison

Retail Service

Vacant



93

main axis of which is Chapel Hill/Bow Street/Market Square and Castle Street/Bridge Street.

The heart of this area is the pedestrianised Bow Street and Market Square. The historic

nature of Market Square, which features the landmark building of the Irish Linen Centre, is

reflected in the street furniture, fittings and fascias along vibrant Bow Street. (Volume 2,

Appendix 8, Photo 21). The recent development of Lisburn Square has brought a new lease

of life to a stunning historic area with a high quality public realm and complimentary fascia

designs (Volume 2, Appendix 8, Photo 22). Lisburn City Centre has two excellent public

open spaces, the courtyard of Lisburn Square and Castle Gardens to the east of the centre.

Litter and graffiti are not apparent throughout the city centre.

Pedestrian Flow

4.185 Pedestrian flow counts have been undertaken at eight locations throughout Lisburn City

Centre. The location and a summary of the results are shown in Figure 4.17 overleaf. Full

details of the pedestrian flows are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 6B.

4.186 The highest three day footfall is at 35 Bow Street (Count Point 5) with a two-way flow of

37,230. This is the highest count within the BMA outside of Belfast City Centre, as shown

by Figure 4.4 (following page 50). Flows are very healthy all along the pedestrianised Bow

Street, confirming its role as the principal shopping pitch within the city centre.1

Significantly, the flow through the entrance to Haslens Lane from Bow Street is also very

high at 89% of peak, which appears to indicate good pedestrian linkage between Bow Street

and the new Lisburn Square retail scheme. Footfall (at 30% of peak or less) is much lower

throughout the eastern area of the city centre which suggests there is a need to make it more

attractive to consumers.

Retailer Profile

4.187 Lisburn City Centre, despite the significant extension of prime floorspace which has been

created through the development of Lisburn Square and an extension to Bow Street Mall,

continues to witness good retail demand. This demand is emanating from all sectors of the

1 Although we did not carry out any pedestrian flow counts in the Bow Street Mall, from observation this also appears to be a very busy shopping environment.



94

market and we understand the following retailers are looking for representation: Bhs,

Debenhams, La Senza, Gadget Shop, Savers and Mark One.

4.188 The new developments that have taken place in Lisburn have demonstrated clearly that

demand exists for well proportioned and located city centre accommodation. These new

schemes have attracted either new retail brands to the city centre or have enabled existing

retailers to improve their representation through relocation. These changes will considerably

add to Lisburn’s ability to provide a sustainable retail offer and compete for the retention of

consumer spending.

Retailer Views1

4.189 In spite of a recent influx of national multiple into the city centre, a majority of the retailers

responding to our survey were independents, occupiers of small units (61% less than 93 sq

m) and had been established in Lisburn for a relatively long time (46% for six or more

years). Moreover, the proportion of retailers which have refurbished their premises, and

extended their store and product range over the past 12 months was a little below the BMAP

average, which is rather surprising given the general buoyancy of the retail market. In

addition, few traders have experienced higher than anticipated staff turnover during the

previous year or had to improve conditions of employment or increase wages more than

expected.

4.190 Just 2% of retailers responding to our survey indicated that they were likely to cease trading

within the coming 12 months – the second lowest proportion of any BMAP town centre

(after Bangor, 1%). However, plans to refurbish, extend salespace, increase the product

range and employ more staff are all below the BMAP average. It would appear that many

retailers are meeting their performance targets without the need to make significant changes.

4.191 During the 12 months prior to the survey, convenience sales rose by 9% (the biggest increase

of any BMAP centre), whilst comparison goods fell by 3%. This must have been a

temporary shift, and from a high base, since our household survey indicates that many

comparison retailers in the city centre are trading very well. This appears to be borne out by

the fact that not a single retailer anticipated a fall in sales over the next 12 months (the only

1 Full results of the retailer survey for Lisburn City Centre are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 5C.



95

BMAP centre to achieve this), whilst around one-third expected their turnover to rise (the

balance of 46% believed their sales would remain about the same or did not give a view).

4.192 The city centre also scores well in relation to market position, trading mix and layout, with a

big majority of retailers supporting the status quo on all three counts. The numbers of

service businesses and vacant units are also considered to be acceptable; only in Belfast City

Centre is this view repeated within the BMA. In addition, virtually all retailers are satisfied

with the pitch of their shop and standard of accommodation, with many rating their units as

good or very good.

4.193 Retailers consider Dunnes Stores to be the principal anchor in the city centre, one of only a

few centres where a non-food retailer (rather than a supermarket) is mentioned. In terms of

future representation, more ladies fashion (eg. Principles), and record stores (eg.

HMV/Virgin) are what the retailers would most like to see.

4.194 In general, the retailer survey confirms that the retail economy of Lisburn City Centre is

strong and getting better. No less than three-quarters of respondents, for example, thought

the centre’s performance had strengthened during the past five years (the highest proportion

of any BMAP centre), whilst just 10% believed it had worsened (the lowest proportion of

any BMAP centre). The balance (15%) believed Lisburn’s trading performance had stayed

‘about the same’.

4.195 Looking ahead, and again reflecting positively on the city’s retailing provision, very few

traders mention changes to the retail offer as an important issue; rather the need to reduce

traffic congestion and improve public toilets and the frequency of bus services to the city

centre rank highest. Around 70% of retailers are also supportive of adding to the amount of

retail floorspace in the city centre to enable new retailers to locate in the centre.

Shop Rents

4.196 Table 4.20 overleaf sets out the changes in Lisburn City Centre’s prime rents from 1996

through to 2003. Over this seven year period rents rose by 22%, the third smallest increase

amongst the BMAP centres (only Holywood and Carryduff are lower). This performance

suggests that the major additions to retail floorspace may have had a limiting effect on rental



96

growth. Lisburn’s rental performance relative to the other BMAP centres is illustrated in

Figures 4.5a and 4.5b (page 55). Nevertheless, the present rent of £916 psm is the second

highest after Belfast City Centre (£2,691).

Table 4.20 Prime Rents in Lisburn City Centre, 1996-2003

Year £psm

1996 753 1997 753 1998 861 1999 807 2000 915 2001 915 2002 915 2003 915


Vacancy Rates

4.197 Data from The Planning Service confirms that in 2001 there was 5,217 sq m net of vacant

retail floorspace in Lisburn City Centre. This is the third highest total out of the seven

BMAP centres (Belfast City Centre and Bangor have more), but is by no means excessive

given the overall size of the centre. This is borne out by Table 4.18 (page 91), which shows

that just 12% of the city centre’s floorspace stock is vacant; only Carryduff and Holywood

have smaller proportions vacant (6% and 8% respectively). Moreover, as noted earlier,

virtually all of the voids are located in secondary locations, well away from the retail core.

Clearly, many of the vacant units are unsuitable for today’s modern multiple retailer seeking

representation in the city centre.

Health Check Summary and Qualitative Need

4.198 In this Section we have presented a comprehensive health check for each of the seven

BMAP centres. The assessment for each individual centre has involved a consideration of

the nine indicators listed in PPS 5. We have sought to summarise the results of our health

checks in Table 4.21, although acknowledge this is difficult to do and relies to a large extent

on judgement. Moreover, PPS 5 does not provide any guidance as to the ‘weight’ that should

be attached to each of the indicators for measuring performance. Accordingly, our approach



97

has been to assume equal weights and to give each city / town centre a score of 1 to 5 for

each of the indicators. We have then calculated an average score.

Table 4.21 Health Check Summary: Centres Ranked by Performance Scores

Health Check Indicator and Score

City/Town Centre

Accessibility Customer Views

Diversity of Use

Environ-mental Quality

Pedestrian Flow

Retailer Profile

Retailer's Views

Shop Rents

Vacancy Rates

Average Score

Lisburn 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3.9

Belfast 4 4 4 2 5 3 3 5 2 3.6

Holywood 2 5 4 2 4 4 1 2 4 3.1

Bangor 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 3 1 3.0

Carrickfergus 4 3 2 4 2 2 2 4 1 2.7

Carryduff 4 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 2.3

Ballyclare 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 1 2.3

Key

Score

5 Very Positive

4 Fairly Positive

3 Neither Positive or Negative

2 Fairly Negative

1 Very Negative



98

4.199 In broad terms there appears to be three categories of city / town centre; Lisburn and Belfast

are generally healthy (scoring 3.9 and 3.6 respectively), Holywood and Bangor are rated

around average (scoring 3.1 and 3.0 respectively), whilst Carrickfergus1, Carryduff and

Ballyclare are judged to be fairly unhealthy (scoring 2.7, 2.3 and 2.3 respectively). Overall,

therefore, the largest centres are healthier than the smallest. This appears to confirm the

suggestion in PPS 5 that smaller town centres are most vulnerable to the impact of out of

centre retail development (see paragraph 4.3).

4.200 Our conclusions in respect of each centre and the qualitative need for new retail development

are as follows:-

• Belfast City Centre – generally fairly healthy, there is clearly a qualitative need for a

greater range of major stores which will distinguish it further from lower order town

centres and thereby facilitate it evolving into a true regional retail destination for

Northern Ireland.

• Ballyclare – generally fairly unhealthy, the development of a new Safeway superstore

may trigger the qualitative improvements which are also necessary in the centre’s

comparison goods shopping provision.

• Bangor – of average health, there is a particular qualitative need to provide the size and

quality of units to meet the requirements of multiple retailers which are seeking

representation in the centre.

• Carrickfergus – fairly unhealthy, the town centre suffers from a huge leakage of

comparison goods expenditure to both Belfast City Centre and the nearby Abbey Centre.

There is a qualitative need to provide appropriately located and configured units to attract

multiple retailers, whilst at the same time ensuring that a major food store presence in the

centre is maintained.

1 Although Carrickfergus is a weak centre in retailing terms, it does relatively well in relation to the environment and access, and this improves its average score.



99

• Carryduff – fairly unhealthy, the centre lacks the scale, critical mass and diversity of

uses to truly perform as a town centre; in addition, it is unlikely to attract the range of

multiple retailers which it will need to enhance its overall retail attraction to consumers.

• Holywood – of average health, the town centre is relatively attractive and offers an

interesting mix of independent retail and leisure uses. There is the potential for it to

capitalise on its niche fashion/arts/crafts offer, although the benefits arising from a

continuing major food store anchor should not be underestimated.

• Lisburn – generally fairly healthy, Lisburn is a vital and viable centre which has

continued to grow in strength despite the presence of the nearby out of town Sprucefield

Regional Shopping Centre. There appears to be no real qualitative need for additional

retailing provision.



100

5. QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: METHODOLOGY, DATA

SOURCES AND ASSUMPTIONS

Objectives

5.1 A major objective of this study is to estimate the quantitative need for additional retail

floorspace within the BMA through to 2015, the end date of the BMAP. The quantitative

assessment has been undertaken for each of the three main categories of retailing –

convenience goods, and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods – and is carried out for three

tiers of geography; the BMAP area as a whole, the six constituent Council Districts and,

within each District, the main city, town and district centres.

5.2 Although the assessment is necessarily detailed and relatively complex, we have at all stages

sought to achieve transparency in our calculations. We have followed a traditional approach

to estimating retail capacity, but for the first time in Northern Ireland have incorporated new

data on expenditure, floorspace, population and retail commitments that have hitherto been

unavailable. This should ensure that our assessment is up to date, comprehensive and robust.

5.3 Our assessment has also been undertaken within the context of the RDS1 and the recently

completed Northern Ireland Retail Research Study (NIRRS)2. In particular, we have sought

to achieve consistency with the latter study by adopting a number of its key assumptions.

5.4 Section 6 of this report describes the quantitative need analysis that we have carried out and

presents the results. In this Section we introduce the need methodology, summarise the role

of the household telephone survey and (for convenience) set out in one place the main

assumptions and definitions which we have used, and our principal sources of data.

Quantitative Need Methodology

5.5 The scope, or capacity, for additional retail floorspace within an area (or town) is dependent

on the future relationship between the demand for and supply of space, ideally after taking

into account the extent (if any) of any over/under trading that is occurring at the present

1 ‘The Regional Development Strategy: Shaping Our Future’ 2 Prepared by Roger Tym & Partners for The Department for Regional Development, February 2003.



101

time. The demand for floorspace is then determined by assessing the likely growth in the

volume of consumer retail expenditure, while an assessment of floorspace supply involves

quantifying the extent to which proposed changes in the location, quality and quantity of

retail floorspace will meet the forecast increases in expenditure. Any monetary shortfall of

supply relative to demand in the future indicates there is capacity for more floorspace in

quantitative terms. The scale of additional retail provision is then determined by converting

the excess consumer expenditure (or headroom expenditure) into a retail floorspace capacity.

In practice, because shopping patterns are complex and vary for different types of goods, the

methodology utilises survey data to predict existing shopping patterns and examines the

extent to which this should change in the future. This is a judgmental decision based upon

planning considerations.

5.6 In practice, commercial considerations are also important in estimating the need for more

floorspace; if a quantitative assessment identifies that there is scope for more space, but the

market is too weak to let it, then clearly any proposed expansion may need to be

reconsidered. Alternatively, there may be instances when market demand for providing

additional retail floorspace exceeds the retail capacity indicated by the quantitative need

assessment.

5.7 Our methodology for estimating quantitative need is presented diagrammatically in Figure

5.1 overleaf. An important ‘working’ assumption is that we assume that the existing (base

year) market shares of available consumer retail expenditure for the BMA as a whole, each

constituent Council District and individual centres included in our assessment are held

constant throughout the Plan period to 2015. This assumption relates to each of the three

broad categories of goods: convenience goods and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods.

We adopt this assumption in order to facilitate the operation of what is already a very

complex ‘model’ (sequence of interconnecting spreadsheets). Our quantitative floorspace

need estimates for areas and centres therefore reflect this constant market shares approach. In

practice, these top-line results may in certain instances require careful interpretation in the

light of planning guidance set out in the Regional Development Strategy, the conclusions of

our health check assessments (carried out in Section 4) and the extent to which existing hard

commitments (planning consents) may not in actuality be brought forward for development.

In some cases this will involve introducing elements of flexibility into interpreting the



102

quantum and location of quantitative floorspace need. The quantitative need methodology is

set out in full in Volume 3, Appendix 1A. The key steps are set out below.

Step 1 Catchment Area Definition

5.8 The catchment area should be defined with regard to the study objective. For the present

study it includes all of the BMA and its immediate shopping hinterland.

Step 2 Analyse Consumer Demand

5.9 This will comprise population estimates of retail expenditure per head for the present and

projected forecast year(s). This should include resident population, but also any in flow retail

expenditure from people living outside the catchment area. The main types of inflow

expenditure come from long distance shoppers, commuters and tourists. The best way to

estimate inflow expenditure is through a survey.

Step 3 Analyse Retail Supply

5.10 This step comprises an assessment of the retail turnover of the existing retail floorspace

stock. This will involve a household survey to estimate the actual retail turnover of centres

and stores and a comparison with benchmark turnover.

Step 4 Retail Demand Vs Retail Supply in the Base Year

5.11 At this stage, the adequacy of the existing retail provision in the BMA in quantitative terms

is assessed. For example, if actual turnovers assessed in Step 3 exceed the benchmark

turnovers, it could be argued that the floorspace is over-trading and, therefore, there may be

an existing need for additional retail floorspace. Alternatively, if actual turnovers are less

than benchmark levels then the floorspace may be assumed to be under-trading, signalling a

potential over-supply of existing retail floorspace.



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Step 5 Changes in Retail Demand and Retail Supply to through to Forecast Year(s)

5.12 This step projects forward total available expenditure in the catchment area and the turnover

of existing and committed retail floorspace. In simple terms, the difference between the total

potential retail floorspace and the forecast retail turnover gives a measure of the quantitative

need for additional retail floorspace. If there is an expenditure surplus, this is converted into

potential floorspace by dividing by an appropriate sales density. Similarly, if there is an

expenditure deficit, a floorspace over supply may exist.

The Household Telephone Survey

Objectives of the Survey

5.13 The household telephone survey forms an important component of the present study, since it

provides robust, up-to-date information on the current pattern of shopping activity

throughout the BMA and surrounding areas. As such, it forms the base upon which the retail

need (capacity) estimates are built.

5.14 A major aim of the survey is to generate quantitative data on consumer retail expenditure

flows between areas or zones (where people live) and retail centres (where they spend their

money). This has been carried out for the following three types of shopping:-

• convenience goods

• non-bulky comparison goods

• bulky comparison goods

Definition of the Survey Area

5.15 We reached agreement with The Planning Service on the outer boundary of the household

survey area at the beginning of the study. The survey area is shown in Figure 3.1a

(following page 19). It is relatively extensive, since it has been drawn to include the main

shopping catchments of all the city and town centres in the BMA.



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5.16 The survey area is divided into two principal parts for analytical purposes: the BMA (which

forms the centre of the doughnut and comprises of six Council Districts) and the hinterland

(which surrounds the BMA and forms the outer ring of the doughnut). The major area of

concern to this study is the BMA, but to get a realistic picture of retail activity within the

BMA the ‘inflow’ and ‘out-flow’ of retail expenditure from and to the hinterland cannot be

ignored.

Definition of the Expenditure Zones

5.17 For the purpose of sampling and analysis the wider survey area has been divided into 18

zones.1 These zones are defined on the basis of ward boundaries and each zone comprises

one or more wards. All of the zones were agreed with The Planning Service. In broad terms

they relate to natural shopping activity areas on the ground and to the size and distribution of

retail centres.

5.18 Figure 3.1a (following page 19) shows the locations and general configuration of the zones

throughout the survey area, while Volume 2, Appendix 3B defines the zones in terms of

their constituent wards.

5.19 The allocation of zones by Council District is as follows:

Belfast City - 5 zones

Carrickfergus - 1 zones

Castlereagh - 2 zones

Lisburn - 2 zones

Newtownabbey - 2 zones

North Down - 2 zones

Belfast Metropolitan Area - 14 zones

Hinterland - 4 zones

Entire Survey Area - 18 zones

and in broad terms reflects the distribution of population.

1 In relation to convenience goods shopping (only), Zone 4 was subsequently divided into two sub-areas (or zones).



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Sampling

5.20 In consultation with The Planning Service an overall target sample of 3,800 completed

interviews was agreed, suffic ient to provide a coverage of 200 interviews per zone.1

In practice, the actual number of completed interviews carried out was 3,658 made up as

follows.

Belfast Metropolitan Area 2,681

Hinterland 977

Total 3,658

5.21 Within each of the 18 zones, the interview sample was drawn randomly and in proportion to

the distribution of population by ward. This ensures the results of the survey reflect for each

zone the density of population on the ground. Volume 2, Appendix 3A provides a much

more detailed statistical synopsis of the sampling methodology and the degree of confidence

which can be attributed to the results for different geographical levels of analysis.

The Survey Questionnaire

5.22 The survey questionnaire was drafted in consultation with The Planning Service and their

collective agreement was obtained prior to the commencement of the interviewing. A copy

of the questionnaire used for the household telephone survey is reproduced in Volume 2,

Appendix 3E.

Implementation, Analysis and Results

5.23 Fieldwork for the household survey was carried out between 18th March and 21st April 2002.

In so far as we use the survey results to inform our assessment of retail need (capacity) in the

BMA, the key data which it generates is the percentage market share (in terms of

expenditure) of the city, town and other centres within each of the 18 zones. This is

analysed separately for convenience goods and non-bulky and bulky comparison goods

shopping. Using this quantitative information, it is possible to build-up a picture of existing

shopper behaviour within each of the six Council Districts and the BMA as a whole. In

particular, the data allows the existing catchment areas and retail turnovers of each of the

1 Including 400 interviews in Zone 1.



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BMA’s main retail centres to be determined. This information has already been analysed

and mapped in Section 3, while it also forms the foundation for the retail floorspace need

(capacity) estimates, which are presented in full in Section 6.

Principal Data Sources

5.24 The quantitative retail need (capacity) assessment which we present in Section 6 utilises five

major sources of data. Each is new to this study and therefore unavailable for earlier retail

studies undertaken within Northern Ireland. The data sources are as follows:-

• Data on shopping trips patterns and consumer retail expenditure flows

Source: A bespoke household telephone survey was undertaken, which has been

described at paragraphs 5.13 to 5.23 above, with full details presented in

Volume 2, Appendix 3.

• Data on population and population projections

Source: Accurate populations have been derived for each zone using ward figures

published as part of the 2001 Census.

Population projections by zone have been estimated using information set out in

the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) and housing allocations within the

BMA. Full details are given in Volume 2, Appendix 9A.

• Data on consumer retail expenditure per head

Source: Bespoke data on convenience goods and comparison goods expenditure per head

has been obtained from CACI for each zone. This spend data has then been

adjusted to ensure consistency with the consumer retail expenditure per head

figures used in the Northern Ireland Retail Research Study. Full information is

set out in Volume 2, Appendix 9B.



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• Data on existing retail floorspace

Source: The Planning Service undertook a comprehensive survey of all retail floorspace

within the BMA in mid 2001. This survey identified net (sales) floorspace

within each centre for each of the following categories of use:-

- Convenience goods

- Non-Bulky comparison goods

- Bulky comparison goods

- Retail Services

- Vacant

In order to ensure that the retail floorspace stock figures are consistent with the

date of the household survey (March 2002), as part of the quantitative need

assessment we up-date The Planning Service data by including new retail

developments which were completed between The Planning Service and

household surveys (ie. between mid 2001 and March 2002). This is discussed in

Section 6.

Details of existing retail floorspace by centre, Council District and for the BMA

as a whole as at mid 2001 are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 9E.

• Data on retail commitments / proposals

Source: The Planning Service has prepared a detailed schedule of retail schemes in the

planning pipeline throughout the BMA. These have been grouped into one of

three categories as follows:-

- those schemes completed between mid 2001 and March 2002 – these

developments are included in the baseline floorspace figures (see above);

- those schemes completed since March 2002 and with planning consent as at

May 2003 – these are defined as ‘hard’ commitments;



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- those schemes awaiting a planning decision as at May 2003 – these are

defined as ‘soft proposals’.

A schedule providing full details of each individual retail ‘commitment’

categorised by centre, Council District and planning status is reproduced in

Volume 2, Appendix 10A. We have excluded a very small number of retail

commitments and proposals from our quantitative need assessment. These are

listed in Volume 2, Appendix 10B, which also gives our reasons for excluding

them.

Interpretation and Definitions

5.25 In addition to the principal sources of data, there are a number of definitions which we have

adopted throughout the quantitative need (capacity) assessment. These ensure consistency

and although many are referred to again in Section 6, we hope that by grouping them

together below this will assist the reader in understanding the technical analysis which

follows.

Study Centres

The Planning Service has requested that we include the following centres within the BMA:-

Belfast District Lisburn District

Belfast City Centre Lisburn City Centre

Connswater Sprucefield Regional Centre

Hillview (u/c) Dairy Farm Centre

Kennedy Way Hillsborough

Park Centre Moira

Westwood Centre

Yorkgate

Castlereagh District Newtownabbey District

Carryduff Town Centre Ballyclare Town Centre

Dundonald Village Abbey Centre

Forestside / Upper Gallaway Glengormley Village

Northcott Centre



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Carrickfergus District North Down District

Carrickfergus Town Centre Bangor Town Centre


Bloomfield District Centre

Springhill District Centre

Composition of Main Retail Goods Categories

5.26 We adopt the definitions used by The Planning Service, which relate to the retail floorspace

data. These are set out in full in Volume 2, Appendix 9D.

Base Year

5.27 We adopt a base year of 2002. This is when the household telephone survey was undertaken,

and therefore the year in which we have retail centre turnover estimates.

Forecast Year(s)

5.28 The Planning Service has agreed to 2005, 2010 and 2015. 2015, of course, is the end date of

the BMAP.

Price Base

5.29 All monetary figures in this report are given in constant 1998 prices. This is the price base

used in the NIRRS and ensures that retail expenditure and turnover data presented in this

study for BMAP is consistent with data for Northern Ireland as a whole.

In-Flow Expenditure

5.30 We have estimated the volume of consumer retail expenditure flowing into our survey area

from the rest of Northern Ireland by analysing unpublished household survey results

produced as part of the NIRRS. In-flow expenditure has been estimated separately for

convenience goods, non-bulky comparison goods and bulky comparison goods. Full details

of our calculations are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 9C.



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Special Forms of Trading and E-Commerce

5.31 It is normal practice in the preparation of quantitative retail need (capacity) studies to make

deductions from the consumer retail expenditure per person figures adopted to allow for

expenditure by ‘special forms of trading’ (SFT). This is retail expenditure that does not take

place in shops, such as that via mail order houses, door to door salesmen and stalls and

markets. It also includes spending using digital TV and over the internet. Experian estimate

that in 2000 expenditure by SFT nationally accounted for 2% of total consumer retail

expenditure on convenience goods and 7% on comparison goods.1

5.32 Recent evidence suggests that E-commerce sales are increasing as a proportion of total retail

expenditure, although perhaps not at the rate many commentators forecast at the height of

the dot.com boom a few years ago. Much of the initial growth in e-tailing has been achieved

through the cannibalisation of existing retail expenditure on traditional catalogue-based mail

order. However, this cannot continue, so any further gains in e-tailing will directly feed

through into an increase in retail sales through SFT. Accordingly, we feel it is prudent to

take this into account in our quantitative need assessment. We estimate that expenditure by

SFT (including E-commerce) for comparison goods will rise from 7% in 2000 to 8% in

2005, 9% in 2010 and 10% by 2015. 2 For convenience goods, however, we have assumed

that the proportion of retail expenditure by SFT will remain constant through to 2015. Both

these assumptions are consistent with those adopted within the NIRRS. It must be stressed

that these are only broad estimates, since it is very difficult to forecast precisely what will

happen, particularly over a long time-frame. Obviously, if the actual growth in SFT as a

proportion of total retail expenditure is less than that which we forecast then our estimate of

additional retail floorspace need within BMAP will be too low; alternatively if our SFT

forecasts are too conservative then the retail floorspace need estimates will be too high.

1 Traditionally many consultants have used the SFT figures estimated by MapInfo. These are 0.9% for convenience goods expenditure and 7.6% for comparison good expenditure. However, these figures relate to 1997 and earlier, and have not been up-dated. For this reason, we have chosen to use the more recent Experian estimates. 2 To set our forecasts in context, the recently published Shopping Centre Futures report assumed spending on internet, digital TV and catalogue shopping would rise from an estimated 6.5% of total retail sales in 2000 to 12.5% of retail sales by 2020. (Report by The Future Foundation jointly commissioned by Grosvenor and BCSC, 2002).



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Disaggregation of Consumer Retail Expenditure Between Non-Bulky and Bulky

Comparison Goods Spending

5.33 We undertake separate quantitative retail need assessments for non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods, and therefore consumer retail expenditure on comparison goods must be

disaggregated between the two categories. In this study, we assume that 65% of consumer

comparison goods expenditure at the base year (2002) is spent on non-bulky comparison

goods and 35% is spent on bulky comparison goods. We also assume that these proportions

will continue through to 2015.

5.34 Our assumptions are based on expenditure trend data published by Experian and MapInfo. A

consideration of both organisations’ data suggests that not only is the 65:35 split between

non-bulky and bulky comparison goods appropriate and realistic , but it remains relatively

constant over time, although individual expenditure components (eg. DIY and electrical

goods) may rise and fall in cycles. This is confirmed by an analysis of past trends using

MapInfo data (Volume 2, Appendix 9F) which shows that historically the proportions

between the non-bulky and bulky comparison goods categories (defined slightly differently

to The Planning Service) have remained broadly the same.

Turnover Allocation for Existing Retail Floorspace

5.35 It would, in our view, be wrong to assume that all of the increase in retail expenditure within

the BMA is available to support additional retail floorspace. This is because it is appropriate

that some of the forecast growth in expenditure should be allocated to existing retailers in

order for them to increase their average trading densities in real terms.

5.36 Indeed historically there has been a steady increase in the trading efficiency of existing retail

floorspace (in terms of sales per sq m) and it is expected that such a trend will continue into

the future. This is especially likely to be the case within the BMA where much of the retail

floorspace stock should be able to accommodate gains in trading efficiency. By making a

suitable allowance for increasing retailer sales densities (to cover retailer costs), we are

building into our assessment the increasing monetary means for all existing retailers to

maintain their current standards of accommodation and customer service through enabling

them to refurbish their stores and invest in the quality and training of their staff.



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5.37 There is plenty of evidence to indicate that retailers do achieve real gains in sales density

over time and that many retailers within the BMA actually need to achieve increases in their

future sales density to maintain the existing viability of their stores. As long ago as 1986,

URPI1 concluded as follows:-

• “from 1984…(we)…suggest small but positive annual rates of change for convenience

goods of around +0.15% per annum, an overall annual rate of change for all goods of

just under +1.0% and a slowly declining annual average rate of growth for comparison

goods starting at about +2.0% per annum falling to about +1.5% per annum if trends

continued unchanged for the next 15 years.”

5.38 Much more recently the Shopping Centre Futures report estimated that the efficiency of

shopping centre floorspace had increased, on average, by 2% per annum in real terms over

the past 20 years. Over this same period, the report indicated that the efficiency of all retail

floorspace had grown at an average rate of 1.6% per annum, implying that traditional

shopping areas had seen an increase in efficiency of 1.2% per annum. The report also

assumed, in relation to shopping centre floorspace, that the 2% per annum growth rate would

continue through to 2020.

5.39 Within the BMA, our survey indicated that only 5% of retailers believed that their current

sales density was too high, whereas 30% considered it was too low (65% thought it was

about right). This suggests there is both a potential and a need for average sales per sq m to

increase across the BMA.

5.40 Taking into account all of this evidence, we adopt the following estimates of real increases in

floorspace efficiency from 2002 (our base year) through to 2015 (the end date of the

BMAP).2

• Convenience goods 0.0% p.a.

• Non-bulky comparison goods 1.25% p.a.

• Bulky comparison goods 1.25% p.a.

1 Unit for Retail Planning, Information Brief 86/6, Changes in Goods Based Turnover to Floorspace Ratios, December 1996. 2 These floorspace efficiency assumptions are consistent with those adopted in the NIRRS.



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Net to Gross Ratios

5.41 In converting net (or sales) retail floorspace to gross retail floorspace (or vice versa), we

have used a series of net to gross ratios. These are as follows:-

• Convenience goods 60:100

• Non-Bulky comparison goods 65:100

• Bulky comparison goods 65:100 Town Centres

90:100 Retail Warehouses

Forecast Sales Densities

5.42 Sales density measures the relative efficiency with which floorspace is used by retailers to

convert sales floorspace into retail turnover. Retailers selling high value goods from a

relatively small unit area generally achieve much higher sales densities than retailers such as

DIY or bulky furniture operators selling lower value products from a large store.

5.43 We use forecast sales densities at two stages in our quantitative floorspace need assessment:-

• to estimate the turnover of retail commitments;

• to convert the available residual headroom expenditure at each of the forecast years into a

need (or requirement) for additional retail floorspace.

5.44 In considering what are the most important sales densities to use it is necessary to bear in

mind the following:-

• that sales densities relate to new retail stores or schemes which will open in the future; the

densities will therefore be generally higher than those which apply to all of the existing

retail floorspace stock in a centre in the base year (2002);

• that sales densities vary widely between goods categories, retailers, and for different

stores operated by the same retailers; in addition, average sales density performance also



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tends to vary between centres at different levels in the retail hierarchy – higher order

centres generally achieve higher sales densities than lower order centres;

• that sales densities for comparison goods floorspace will vary over time due to the real

increase in floorspace efficiency of 1.25% per annum which we apply to existing retail

floorspace stock (see paragraph 5.40).

5.45 It is therefore necessary to adopt a range of forecast sales densities in order to account for the

variability in retail performance between different centres, goods categories and retail

formats. In selecting what we consider to be the most realistic forecast sales densities, we

have sought to be as consistent as possible with those used in the NIRRS. Our forecast sales

densities are set out in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 Assumed Forecast Sales Densities (£ psm)

Forecast Year Goods Category Format

2005 2010 2015


Belfast City Centre

Lisburn City Centre/Bangor Town Centre/Out of Town Shopping Centres

All other centres/stores

4,9941

4,3952

3,7963

5,313

4,677

4,039

5,654

4,976

4,298 Bulky Comparison Goods - 2,9934 3,185 3,389

Convenience Goods

Superstores / Large food stores

All other stores

9,1505

5,4006

9,150

5,400

9,150

5,400 Notes: ¹ NIRRS top of range estimate for 2011 adjusted to forecast years by applying appropriate changes in floorspace efficiency. ² NIRRS mid range estimate for 2011 adjusted to forecast years by applying appropriate changes in floorspace efficiency. ³ NIRRS bottom of range estimate for 2011 adjusted to forecast years by applying appropriate changes in floorspace efficiency. 4NIRRS mid range estimate for 2011 adjusted to forecast years by applying appropriate changes in floorspace efficiency. 5 NIRRS mid range estimate for superstores and large convenience stores. 6 NIRRS mid range estimate for smaller food stores and specialist discount retailers.

5.46 To convert potential headroom expenditure within the convenience goods sector into a retail

floorspace requirement we assume an average sales density of £7,275 per sq m. This is the



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midpoint of the range set out in Table 5.1. For the comparison goods sector we use the

average sales densities set out in Table 5.1 appropriate for the centre and year.

Metric Conversion

5.47 Where necessary, we have converted square feet into square metres (and vice versa) using

the following formulae:-

1 sq m = 10.764 sq ft

1 sq ft = 0.093 sq m

VAT

5.48 Expenditure data used throughout the quantitative assessment includes VAT.

General Points

5.49 An important aspect of the quantitative need assessment is that we have taken the household

survey results at face value and, accordingly, made no adjustments to the data whatsoever.

Often surveys are carried out by consultants who then manipulate the results in order to

substantiate their own arguments. Frequently there is no explanation or basis for tampering

with such empirical evidence. We have resisted the attraction of going down this road

(which often results in a methodological “black box”), and instead adopt an honest, truly

independent approach.

5.50 It must be stressed that any quantitative need (capacity) assessment undertaken over a long

time-period (2015, the end date of the BMAP is 12 years away) is subject to a margin of

error, since it is necessarily based on a number of assumptions which are difficult to forecast

accurately. We therefore recommend that the retail floorspace need estimates, particularly

those relating to years towards the back end of the Plan period, should be treated with some

caution.



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6. QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEED: ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Objectives

6.1 This section describes our approach to estimating the quantitative need (or capacity) for

additional retail floorspace within the BMAP area and presents the results of the assessment.

6.2 The assessment provides the following information:

• estimates of total available retail expenditure within the shopping catchments of all the

centres at the forecast years of 2005, 2010 and 2015;

• estimates of the retail turnover likely to be ‘retained’ by these centres at each of the

forecast years;

• estimates of “headroom” expenditure and therefore retail floorspace capacity within the

centres at the forecast years; and

• retail capacity disaggregated into convenience goods and comparison goods retail

floorspace, with the latter category further divided into non-bulky goods and bulky goods

shopping.

6.3 Our understanding is that the results of the capacity assessment will be used by The Planning

Service to inform future retail policies and strategies for the BMAP.

6.4 This section has deliberately been kept concise. All the principal data and technical

assumptions have already been presented in Section 5, whilst Volume 2 contains full details

in the form of Appendices and these are referred to as and when appropriate. In addition,

Volume 3 contains the detailed spreadsheets which comprise our quantitative need

assessment. These have been designed to be both comprehensive and transparent and cover

convenience and comparison goods separately, with the latter goods category further

disaggregated into non-bulky and bulky comparison goods.

6.5 We begin with an assessment of the future retail floorspace capacity for comparison goods.



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Need Assessment: Comparison Goods

Step 1: Calculate Total Available Expenditure in the Survey Area

6.6 The need assessment is underpinned by the results of a household telephone survey, which

provides current information on shopper behaviour and retail consumer expenditure flows

(Volume 2, Appendix 3). The household survey area is shown in Figure 3.1a (following

page 19). Within this area the quantum of comparison goods retail expenditure generated is

derived by multiplying population by average annual expenditure per head. This calculation

is carried out for each of the 18 zones which comprise the survey area.

6.7 Population estimates by zone and for the survey area as a whole are set out in Volume 3,

Appendix 1B, Table 1. In addition to estimates for 2002 (the base year), population

forecasts for 2005, 2010 and 2015 are also included. These population estimates take into

account major housing allocations, which have been agreed with The Planning Service

(Volume 2, Appendix 9A).

6.8 Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 2 gives the average annual expenditure per person on

comparison goods for residents living in each of the 18 zones comprising our survey area.

These figures are based on expenditure data from CACI, which have been controlled by the

spend per head figures in the NIRRS (Volume 2, Appendix 9B). We have projected the per

person expenditure estimates forward to the forecast years of 2005, 2010 and 2015 by

adopting a growth rate of +3.6% per annum, which is consistent with the figure used in the

NIRRS.

6.9 At Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 3, we make deductions to the per person expenditure

estimates to account for retail expenditure which does not take place in shops, such as that

on mail order shopping (including e-commerce companies), door to door salesmen and

market and road-side stalls. This form of expenditure is known as “special forms of trading”

(SFT), and is estimated to account for 7.0% of annual spending on comparison goods.1

6.10 In presenting expenditure forecasts through to 2015, we are aware that there are currently a

number of electronic shopping formats which, should they become widely established, could

1 Estimate produced by Experian Business Strategies, February 2002.



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increase significantly the proportion of retail expenditure that is not spent in conventional

shops. We have reviewed the likely impact of these new forms of shopping and concluded

that it is prudent to allow for a modest increase in the proportion of retail expenditure by

SFT. Accordingly, we have assumed the proportion will rise to 8% by 2005, 9% by 2010 and

10% by the end date of the BMAP in 2015. We would stress that this assumption should be

reviewed from time to time, since, were it to change significantly, it could have a material

impact on future levels of retail floorspace by reducing (or increasing) the need for

additional shopping provision.

6.11 Our estimates of total available consumer retail expenditure on comparison goods at the base

year (2002) are set out in Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 4. Forecasts are also given for

the forecast years of 2005, 2010 and 2015. The increases in available expenditure are due to:

• the forecast growth in catchment population;

• real increases in consumer comparison goods expenditure per head.

Step 2: Application of “Market Shares” to Determine Amount of Retained Expenditure

6.12 As a consequence of increases in the volume of consumer expenditure per head running in

tandem with population growth, we estimate the pool of available expenditure on

comparison goods within the survey area1 will increase from around £1,779 million in the

base year (2002) to some £1,978 million in 2005. At 2010 the total will have risen still

further to £2,376 million, while by 2015 the quantum of available comparison goods spend is

likely to have reached some £2,853 million. This represents a gain of about £1,074 million

over the full period – a 60% increase in the ‘pool’ of available expenditure within 13 years.

As with all retail capacity studies, a forecast in the growth of available consumer expenditure

is dependent on a number of assumptions being made. These assumptions are clearly more

difficult to predict the further one forecasts into the future. Although our brief from The

Planning Service is to forecast through to 2015, we would advise that figures beyond 2010

should be treated with caution.

1 The BMAP area is smaller than our household survey area and excludes zones 1 to 4 (see Figures 3.1a and 3.1b following page 19).



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6.13 Our retail assessment quantifies the retail capacity for non-bulky and bulky comparison

goods. Adopting The Planning Service definition we define bulky comparison goods as

comprising carpets, furniture, household textiles and soft furnishings, DIY, hardware and

electrical goods. Non bulky comparison goods constitute all the remaining comparison

product categories, including clothing, footwear and jewellery etc. The detailed Planning

Service definitions of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods are set out in full in Volume

2, Appendix 9D.

6.14 For each of the forecast years (2005, 2010 and 2015), we disaggregate the total ‘pools’ of

available comparison goods expenditure by zone between the non-bulky and bulky retail

categories. This we carry out at Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 5A and 5B respectively.

We apportion the spend by assuming that 65% of consumer comparison goods expenditure,

on average, is spent on non-bulky goods, with the balance (35%) on bulky goods. Moreover,

we adopt these same proportions for each of the forecast years.

6.15 Not all of the growth in consumer retail expenditure which we calculate at paragraph 6.12

will be spent within the BMAP area and is available to support new retail floorspace in the

BMA. This is because our survey area is more extensive than the BMA and because

competitor centres to those in the BMA also lay claim to the same growing “pool” of

expenditure. This requires us to quantify the “market shares” of individual centres within

the BMA and the BMA as a whole .

6.16 Existing “market shares” for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping have been

determined on the basis of the results of the household telephone survey carried out by

ourselves for The Planning Service as part of this study. The survey provides useful

information on the geographical extent of catchment areas and trade penetration around

existing towns by quantifying the pattern and volume of retail expenditure flows from each

of our defined zones (where people live and money is generated) to a range of centres and

out of centre stores (where people spend their money) (see Volume 2, Appendix 3).

6.17 In addition, and of critical importance, our assessment also takes into account the

distribution and volume of locally available consumer expenditure (or spending power) so as

to ensure that our retail turnover estimates are balanced against available retail

consumer expenditure.



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6.18 The base year (2002) pattern of “market shares” are set out at Volume 3, Appendix 1B,

Tables 6A and 6B for non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping respectively. These

market shares have been taken directly from our household telephone survey.

6.19 These “market shares” are then applied to the 2002 “pools” of available non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods expenditure (Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 7A and 7B respectively).

These tables give the monetary amounts of non-bulky and bulky comparison goods

expenditure flowing to each retail centre by zone. The addition of these expenditure totals

for each of the 18 zones give the total amount of non-bulky and bulky goods spending

flowing to a centre from the survey area.

Step 3: Determine Whether Existing Retail Economy is Trading at Equilibrium

6.20 At this stage of the assessment we consider whether the existing non-bulky and bulky goods

retail economies of the centres in the BMA are broadly trading at equilibrium or not. This is

important because if the amount of consumer expenditure flowing to a centre is high in

relation to the stock of available retail floorspace, then the centre’s retail offer may be

described as over-trading. Conversely, if the expenditure flows are low relative to available

retail floorspace, then this can result in under-trading of the present retail offer.

6.21 If over-trading is occurring then it is commonly assumed that the turnover in excess of the

equilibrium position is potentially available to support new shopping provision. If this

occurs, then this element of expenditure should be added to the headroom expenditure which

we later estimate from the future growth in the retail economy. Conversely, if a centre is

under-trading at present, then it is also logical to deduct the amount of turnover shortfall

relative to the equilibrium position from the defined headroom expenditures associated with

the future growth in the retail economy.

6.22 The problem with this kind of analysis is determining whether a centre is trading in

equilibrium or not. There are two principal difficulties. First, every retailer needs to achieve

a certain trading level to be viable. However, this trading level varies substantially for

individual retailers and across the UK, reflecting differences in type of business, profit

margins, site, size, financial structure and other factors. Even with the survey of retailers



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which we have carried out as part of this study1, it is difficult to determine with any degree

of accuracy what the average equilibrium trading level of a centre is. The second major

difficulty is that even if it can be proven that a centre is trading above its retail equilibrium,

this does not automatically mean that problems associated with over-trading occur; these

may include retailer operating difficulties, in-store congestion, over-busy streets leading to

pedestrian safety and security problems, and congested car parks.

6.23 In estimating whether the centres in the BMA are in retail equilibrium at present in relation

to non-bulky and bulky comparison goods shopping, we have attempted to be as robust as

possible, since extreme conditions of over or under-trading in the base year do suggest there

is an under-or over-supply of retail floorspace already. Our benchmark (or retail equilibrium)

turnover estimates for the existing retailing provision within the BMAP retail economy are

set out at Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 7A for non-bulky comparison goods and Table

7B for bulky comparison goods.

6.24 For non-bulky comparison goods shopping (Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 7A), we

estimate that the retail floorspace within the BMA (251,321 sq m net) had an annual turnover

in the base year (2002) of £838.6 million. This produces an average sales density of £3,337

per sq m net, which we consider is at, or close to, retail equilibrium. Therefore, for the

BMAP area as a whole, we do not consider there is any material over-trading or under-

trading in the base year. Thus there is no material existing over or under supply of non-bulky

comparison goods floorspace within the BMA as a whole. However, we do identify over and

under trading within individual centres (and areas) within BMAP and these are highlighted

in Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 7A. The most significant over-trading is in Belfast and

Lisburn City Centres, whilst the lower order retail floorspace within the Belfast City Council

area appears to be significantly under-trading.

6.25 For bulky comparison goods (Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 7B), the 180,380 sq m net of

retail floorspace within the BMAP area in the base year (2002) is estimated to turnover some

£427.4 million. This equates to an average sales density of £2,369 per sq m net. Once again,

we consider that this level of floorspace efficiency, whilst much lower than for non-bulky

1 Our survey of retailers (Appendix Volume 2, 5C, Table 14) sought information on how existing average sales densities were perceived by the stores themselves. Within the BMAP area as a whole (and at each centre except Carryduff) a majority of retailers described their existing sales density as “about right”; significantly, there is no evidence from the retail sector itself that the BMAP area is materially over-trading at present.



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comparison goods, is at, or close to, retail equilibrium for the bulky comparison goods

sector. Accordingly, for the BMAP area as a whole, we do not believe there is a material

level of over or under-trading and, as a result, no real existing over or under-supply of bulky

comparison goods floorspace. As for non-bulky comparison goods, however, we do identify

some over and under-trading within individual centres (and areas) and these are identified in

Volume 3, Appendix 1b, Table 7B. In general, however, the scale of over and under trading

is much less than for non-bulky comparison goods.

6.26 Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 8 combines the monetary flows identified in Volume 3,

Appendix 1B, Tables 7A (non-bulky comparison goods) and Table 7B (bulky comparison

goods) and gives the estimated base year (2002) annual (total) comparison goods turnovers

of the centres within the BMA. Using survey data produced as pat of the NIRRS1, we have

estimated the amount of consumer non-bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure

flowing to centres within the BMA from residents living outside our household survey area.

Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 9 translates for each zone the total comparison goods

expenditure flows to each of the centres into a series of market shares for the base year

(2002).

Step 4: Calculate Growth in Retained Expenditure through to the Forecast Years

6.27 Having determined the base year (2002) “market shares” and levels of retained comparison

goods expenditure within the BMAP centres, we use the market shares to calculate how

much more spending or trade these centres could expect to attract in the future as a result of

the forecast growth in available catchment area expenditure.

6.28 Our retail capacity forecasts for comparison goods are based on the important principle that

the BMAP centre retail economies will maintain into the future their existing status relative

to each other and to competitor centres. This approach is frequently adopted by consultants

when the main objective is to provide a strategic assessment of the scope for additional retail

floorspace over a long time-frame.

6.29 For each of the forecast years we therefore apply the same market shares to the increased

“pools” of available expenditure in each zone. The calculations for the years 2005, 2010 and

1 Full details of our calculations are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 9C.



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2015 are set out in Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 10, 14, and 18 respectively. Due to the

increase in demand (as a result of population growth and rising consumer retail expenditure)

the assessment produces at 2005 higher retail turnover potentials for each of the centres than

in the base year (2002). Similarly, the turnover potentials get even higher for the forecast

years of 2010 and 2015.

Step 5: Determine Level of Potential Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years

6.30 It would be wrong to assume that all of the increases in turnover potential for the BMAP

centres will be available by the forecast year(s) to support additional comparison goods

shopping. This is because some of the forecast growth in expenditure will be absorbed by

the existing retail floorspace. We therefore make a suitable allowance (1.25% p.a.) for

existing retailers to increase their sales densities in real terms over the Plan period. In our

view, making such an allowance should at least maintain the existing economic health of the

BMAP centres through to 2015.

6.31 Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 11A and 11B disaggregate the forecast 2005 comparison

goods turnover estimates for each centre into non-bulky and bulky goods categories

respectively. This calculation is repeated for the forecast years 2010 and 2015 at Volume 3,

Appendix 5B, Tables 15A and 15B, and Tables 19A and 19B respectively.

6.32 In Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 12A and 12B the turnover allocations for existing

retailers are deducted from the 2005 turnover potentials of the BMAP centres for non-bulky

and bulky comparison goods respectively. This calculation produces estimates of residual

turnover potential. The base year (2002) turnovers are then subtracted from these 2005

residual turnovers to determine the quantum of potential headroom expenditure which will

be available in 2005 for each centre. Similar analyses are carried out for the forecast year

2010 in Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 16A and 16B and for 2015 in Volume 3,

Appendix 1B, Tables 20A and 20B.

Step 6: Determine Level of Residual Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years

6.33 To convert potential headroom expenditure into residual headroom expenditure at each of

the forecast years we must make further deductions to account for that quantum of retail



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expenditure which is likely to be soaked up by retail floorspace commitments (and

proposals) within the BMAP area.

6.34 Details of retail commitments (and proposals) throughout the BMAP area have been

provided by The Planning Service and are summarised in Volume 2, Appendix 10.1 The

schedule of commitments is extensive and to assist in the quantitative assessment individual

developments have been grouped by centre. The net floorspace figures have been converted

to turnovers for each goods category at each of the forecast years using the range of average

sales densities set out in paragraph 5.45 in Section 5.

6.35 Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 13A and 13B set out our calculations to estimate the

residual headroom expenditure for the forecast year of 2005 for non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods floorspace respectively after taking into account retail commitments2

only. These have been estimated for each centre. The same assessment is carried out for the

forecast years of 2010 and 2015 in Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 17A and 17B, and 21A

and 21B respectively. In Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 22A, 23A and 24A for non-bulky

comparison goods and Tables 22B, 23B and 24B for bulky comparison goods, we set out the

derived residual headroom expenditures for the forecast years of 2005, 2010 and 2015

respectively after also including retail proposals.3

6.36 At this stage (also shown in Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 13A and 13B for non-bulky

and bulky comparison goods respectively), we then add / deduct as appropriate the totals of

expenditure which relate to the over / under trading estimated for the base year (2002). This

gives the total adjusted residual headroom expenditures available for the BMAP centres

(Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 17A and 17B and Tables 21A and 21B set out the data

for the forecast years 2010 and 2015 respectively).

6.37 In our view these adjusted residual headroom expenditure totals are most important because

they provide an estimate of the amount of potential turnover which will be available to each

BMAP centre (at each of the forecast years) given our assumption of constant market shares.

1 Where there were gaps in the data supplied, floorspace figures have been estimated by Colliers CRE and agreed by The Planning Service. 2 Retail developments either completed since March 2002 (the date of our household survey), currently under-construction or with planning consent as at May 2003. 3 Applications for retail development that have yet (May 2003) to be determined by The Planning Service.



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At Step 7, below, to meet the requirements of the study, we convert these residual headroom

expenditures into retail floorspace requirements. However, the output of this last stage is

dependent on the application of average sale s densities and these, in practice, are likely to

vary enormously depending on the specific type of development that is proposed. For

example, city or town centre stores comprising non-bulky comparison goods shopping will

typically trade at much higher average sales densities than retail warehouse style

developments selling mainly bulky comparison goods.

Step 7: Estimate Capacity for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace in the Forecast

Year(s)

6.38 The final step of the analysis is to convert the adjusted residual headroom expenditures for

non-bulky and bulky comparison goods into retail floorspace requirements at each of the

forecast years. This is carried out by dividing the residual headroom expenditures by typical

average sales densities for different types of comparison goods floorspace.1

6.39 The assessment is presented in full at Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 13A and 13B for

non-bulky and bulky comparison goods respectively for the forecast year of 2005. Similar

analyses for the forecast years 2010 and 2015 are reproduced at Volume 3, Appendix 1B,

Tables 17A and 17B, and Tables 21A and 21B respectively.

6.40 The retail floorspace capacities calculated above for comparison goods shopping within the

BMAP centres are subject to many assumptions. Therefore, we must re-emphasise that the

further into the future the forecasts are undertaken the more cautious one must be in

interpreting the results.

6.41 It should also be borne in mind that the floorspace capacity estimates have been prepared on

the basis that the BMAP centres will maintain their base year (2002) market shares of non-

bulky and bulky comparison goods expenditure within their respective catchment areas

through to 2015. However, in practice, there are alternative scenarios that may be considered

by The Planning Service. These fall into two categories as follows:

1 In practice, the average sales densities which we adopt are (in the main) the same as those we use to estimate the turnover of the retail commitments and proposals (See paragraph 5.45 and 5.46).



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• The development of retail proposals that, in practice, will trade significantly above and/or

below the sales densities we have assumed for translating adjusted residual headroom

expenditure into non-bulky and bulky comparison goods floorspace requirements. This

will result in floorspace capacity levels either less than or in excess of the figures

calculated above.

• A redistribution of floorspace capacity between the BMAP centres and other competitor

centres, such that one centre “captures” market share from the others.

Need Assessment: Convenience Goods

6.42 Our retail capacity assessment for convenience goods floorspace follows the same approach

as that for comparison goods (i.e. that summarised in Figure 5.1 following page 101). The

detailed calculations underpinning the analysis are reproduced in full at Volume 3,

Appendix 1C.

Step 1: Calculate Total Available Expenditure in the Catchment Area

6.43 At Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Tables 1 to 4 inclusive, the total available convenience goods

expenditure by zone is determined for the base year (2002) and the forecast years of 2005,

2010 and 2015. The analysis incorporates estimates of average annual spending per head on

convenience goods within each zone (Volume 2, Appendix 9B). We again exclude

expenditure by “special forms of trading”, although the allowance (2.0%) is much lower than

for comparison goods shopping and is assumed to remain at this level throughout the Plan

period.

Step 2: Application of “Market Shares” to Determine Amount of Retained Expenditure

6.44 Using the results of the household telephone survey we derive the base year (2002) market

shares of the BMAP centres1 within each of the 18 zones. This assessment is set out at

Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Table 5. Applying the market shares to the total “pools” of

available expenditure within each zone in the base year (2002) (Volume 3, Appendix 1C,

1 This involves grouping together the expenditure flows to individual named stores in order to establish the overall market share of a centre.



127

Table 6), gives the monetary flows of consumer spending from zones to the BMAP centres.

We include small allowances for in-flow expenditure into the BMAP area from people living

outside our household survey area (Volume 2, Appendix 9C). The addition of the flows

from each zone together with the in-flow expenditure gives the total estimated convenience

goods turnover of each centre.

Step 3: Determine Whether Existing Retail Economy is Trading at Equilibrium

6.45 For convenience goods shopping, we now replicate the analysis carried out earlier in relation

to comparison goods, and calculate the extent of any over or under trading within the BMAP

area at the base year (2002). There was 214,179 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace

within the BMAP area in our base year (2002). According to our household survey this

floorspace had a convenience turnover of some £1,187.6 million, giving an average sales

density across the BMAP area of £5,544 per sq m net which we consider is at, or close to,

retail equilibrium. Therefore, for the convenience goods retail stock across the BMAP area

as a whole, we do not believe there is any material over-trading or under-trading in the base

year. Accordingly, we do not consider there is an existing material over or under supply of

convenience goods floorspace within the BMA as a whole. However, we do identify over

and under trading at individual BMAP centres (and areas) and these are highlighted in

Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Table 6.

Step 4: Calculate Growth in Retained Expenditure through to the Forecast Years

6.46 Adopting the constant market shares approach, as we did for comparison goods, at the

forecast years 2005 and 2010, we apply the same base year (2002) market shares to the

higher pools of available expenditure within the zones to determine the levels of retained

retail expenditure within the BMAP centres at these years. These calculations are set out in

Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Tables 7 (2005), 10 (2010) and 13 (2015).

Section 5: Determine Level of Potential Headroom Expenditure in the Forecast Years

6.47 At Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Tables 8, 11 and 14 we determine the levels of potential

headroom expenditure within the BMAP centres at the forecast years of 2005, 2010 and

2015 respectively. Unlike for comparison goods, we do not set aside any of the turnover

growth for existing retailers.



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Step 6: Determine Level of Residual Headroom Expend iture in the Forecast Years

6.48 To convert the potential headroom expenditure figures into residual headroom expenditure

estimates, we take into account the existing convenience goods retail commitments within

the BMAP area. These commitments are listed in Volume 2, Appendix 10A.

6.49 Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Tables 9, 12 and 15 set out our calculations (taking into account

retail commitments only) to determine residual headroom expenditures for the forecast years

of 2005, 2010 and 2015 respectively. As with comparison goods, we then adjust the

convenience goods residual headroom expenditures to take into account any over or under-

trading that exists in each centre at the base year (2002). In Volume 3, Appendix 1C,

Tables 16, 17 and 18 we produce adjusted residual headroom expenditures for 2005, 2010

and 2015 respectively, after also including retail proposals (these are also listed in Volume

2, Appendix 10A).

Step 7: Estimate Floorspace Capacity for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace in

the Forecast Years

6.50 Lastly, at Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Tables 9, 12 and 15 (including retail commitments

only) and Tables 16, 17 and 18 (including both retail commitments and proposals), we

convert these adjusted residual headroom expenditures into floorspace requirements but, as

with comparison goods, these floorspace estimates are entirely dependent on the average

sales densities applied to the floorspace. In our calculations we adopt the sales density set out

at paragraph 5.46. As with comparison goods, our assessment has been prepared on the basis

that the BMAP centres will maintain their base year (2002) market shares of convenience

goods expenditure into the future. However, in practice, The Planning Service may wish to

see a re-distribution of floorspace capacity between the BMAP centres, such that one centre

‘captures’ market share from the others.



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7. STUDY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Introduction and Consistency with the NIRRS

7.1 In this final section, we set out the results of our quantitative floorspace need assessment for

the BMAP area. In undertaking the assessment we have tried to ensure consistency with the

NIRRS by adopting many of the same data inputs and assumptions; these have been reported

on in Section 5. We have also assumed that the BMAP area as a whole will continue to

attract its existing share of available consumer retail expenditure within Northern Ireland for

each of the three main product categories: convenience goods and non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods. The reason for adopting this important assumption is that the RDS does

not support the further concentration of retail facilities in the BMA at the expense of the rest

of Northern Ireland. We further assume that each constituent Council District will also

continue to attract its base year market share of available expenditure from within the BMA

throughout the Plan period.

7.2 The NIRRS concluded that at the regional level, after allowing for commitments, there is

little or no need for additional foodstores or retail warehouses through to 2011. The study

did, however, identify a clear need for additional non-bulky comparison goods floorspace in

city and town centres. The results of the assessment for the BMAP area set out in this report

should be read in this context, although it is unwise to make direct comparisons because of

the geographical differences and, most importantly, the differences in the quantum and mix

of retail commitments which each study has taken into account.

The Retail Development Planning Pipeline

7.3 It is worth highlighting up-front that the retail floorspace capacity estimated by this study

may appear to be limited. However, it should be borne in mind that no previous retail study

was able to incorporate the same comprehensive range of data as included here. In particular,

the floorspace data provided by The Planning Service indicates that there is already a

relatively large amount of occupied retail floorspace within the BMA (a total of 646,000 sq

m net1 – virtually one sq m per person2 – which earlier studies have tended to

1 As at March 2002, the time of our household telephone survey (the ‘base’ year). 2 646,000 sq m net of retail floorspace for a population of 648,520 (2002).



130

underestimate), whilst the existing volume of ‘hard’ commitments and ‘soft’ proposals

together is immense at 238,000 sq m net – equivalent to more than one-third of the entire

existing retail floorspace stock within the BMAP area. Table 7.1 overleaf summarises the

amount of retail floorspace within the BMA development pipeline by category of goods and

Council area. This confirms that the Belfast Council Area is the principal location for this

retail development pipeline, accounting for 41% of the BMA’s hard commitments and no

less than 57% of all hard commitments and soft proposals. Table 7.2 overleaf disaggregates

the same retail development pipeline by whether it is located in-centre or out of centre. The

breakdown confirms that the trend of recent years is set to continue; with some 62% of the

retail floorspace of hard commitments located out of centre, although the proportion does fall

a little to 52% in relation to soft proposals.



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Table 7.1 Retail Floorspace of Hard Commitments and Soft Proposals by Council Area (Sq M Net)

Convenience

Goods Non-Bulky

Comparison Goods Bulky

Comparison Goods All Retail Floorspace Council Area

Hard Commitments Soft Proposals Total Hard

Commitments Soft Proposals Total Hard Commitments Soft Proposals Total Hard

Commitments Soft Proposals Total

Belfast 3,306 8,950 12,256 32,916 45,691 78,607 22,977 21,647 44,624 59,198 76,288 135,486

Carrickfergus 0 0 0 338 0 338 5,900 0 5,900 6,238 0 6,238

Castlereagh 243 11,157 11,400 244 394 637 0 0 0 487 11,550 12,037

Lisburn 5,624 0 5,624 18,886 3,019 21,905 14,308 -4,181¹ 10,127 38,818 -1,161 37,656

Newtownabbey 5,289 703 5,993 7,955 388 8,343 14,925 1,674 16,599 28,170 2,765 30,935

North Down 3,963 309 4,272 2,339 168 2,507 6,350 2,093 8,443 12,653 2,569 15,222

BMAP Total 18,426 21,119 39,544 62,678 49,660 112,338 64,460 21,233 85,693 145,563 92,012 237,575

Source: The Planning Service / Colliers CRE. Figures correct as at May 2003. Note:- ¹ The negative value is the result of the following assumption:- if planning conditions are relaxed to enable the sale of non-bulky comparison goods from an existing bulky comparison goods unit (as per the application) this would result in the loss of bulky comparison goods floorspace and a gain in non- bulky comparison goods floorspace. (See Volume 2, Appendix 10A for full details.) Table 7.2 Retail Floorspace of Hard Commitments and Soft Proposals: In Centre vs Out of Centre (Sq M Net)

In Centre Out of Centre All Retail Floorspace Goods

Category Hard Commitments

Soft Proposals Total Hard

Commitments Soft

Proposals Total Hard Commitments

Soft Proposals Total

Convenience 5,281 1,336 6,617 13,144 19,783 32,927 18,426 21,119 39,544

Non Bulky 47,557 42,966 90,523 15,121 6,694 21,814 62,678 49,660 112,338

Bulky 2,732 0 2,732 61,728 21,233 82,961 64,460 21,233 85,693

Total 55,570 44,303 99,873 89,993 47,709 137,702 145,563 92,012 237,575 Source: The Planning Service / Colliers CRE. Figures correct as at May 2003.



132

7.4 Perhaps of more significance is that the retail turnover of all the hard commitments / soft

proposals together by the end date of the BMAP (2015) is estimated at more than £1.2

billion (Table 7.3), of which almost £700 million (57%) is attributable to retail schemes

either under construction or with planning consent. Clearly these are huge sums and there is

only so much money available even within a growing consumer economy like the BMA.

This obviously has important implications for future shopping development proposals and in

turn retail policy.

Table 7.3 Retail Turnover of Hard Commitments and Soft Proposals by Goods

Category in 2015

Estimated Turnover in 2015 (£m) Goods

Category

Estimated Existing (2002)

Turnover (£m)

Hard Commitments

Soft Proposals Total

Non-bulky comparison goods 839 340 275 615 Bulky comparison goods 427 219 72 291 Convenience goods 1188 135 179 314 Total 2454 694 526 1220 Source: The Planning Service / Colliers CRE. Figures correct as at May 2003.

Context to Quantitative Retail Need Assessment

7.5 The RDS was adopted by the Northern Ireland Assembly in September 2001. It provides a

regional policy context for the preparation of Area Plans for sub-regions and local areas,

including the BMAP. Legislation will require that the BMAP be in general conformity with

the RDS. In relation to retailing and the BMA the key planning guidelines set out in the RDS

are to:-

• support and strengthen the distinctive role of Belfast City Centre as the leading regional

shopping centre;

• maintain the role of Belfast City Centre as the primary retail location in the region;

• promote a renewed focus on regeneration for Belfast and Lisburn City Centres, the town

centres of Bangor and Carrickfergus, and areas of disadvantage and deprivation located

within the BMA; and



133

• support the viability and vitality of city and town centres by ensuring that they should

normally be the first choice for major new retail developments.

7.6 The conclusions of our health check assessments carried out in Section 4 support the

guidelines set out in the RDS; for example, there is a qualitative need to significantly

improve the retail offer of Belfast City Centre, whilst many of the existing town centres are

in need of regeneration and new retail investment.

7.7 It is within this planning context that we now summarise the results of our BMAP retail

floorspace quantitative need assessment, which is based on a number of working

assumptions that have been discussed previously. Each goods category is addressed in turn.

Within each category we first consider quantitative need within the BMA as a whole, then go

on to address need within each Council District and individual centres. The full results of our

quantitative need assessment are set out in Volume 3, Appendices 1B and 1C.


The BMA as a Whole

7.8 Between the base year (2002) and the end of the BMAP in 2015, we estimate that £355

million of new expenditure will become available to support additional non-bulky

comparison goods floorspace within the BMA as a whole. However, it is estimated that

‘hard’ commitments will soak up £340 million of this growth in spend, with £154 million of

this total being taken-up by the MDC redevelopment in Belfast City Centre. Allowing for a

very small element of under-trading in the base year, the quantum of expenditure which we

estimate will be available by 2015 to support additional non-bulky comparison goods

floorspace will be around £9 million. This equates to a need for around 2,000 sq m net

(3,000 sq m gross) within the BMAP area as a whole. (See Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table

21a).

7.9 In broad terms this equates to an ‘equilibrium’ situation by 2015, whereby the estimated

growth in available non-bulky comparison goods expenditure will be absorbed by the

additional retail floorspace likely to come on stream through the implementation of all

existing ‘hard’ commitments.



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7.10 In practice, however, there are many additional ‘soft’ proposals in the retail development

pipeline as well. We estimate that all of these, if granted planning consent and built, will

absorb another £275 million of expenditure by 2015. Therefore, on our figures, and taking

into account the small amount of under-trading which we estimate in the base year, there

could be a deficit of non-bulky comparison goods expenditure within the BMAP area of

around £267 million by 2015. (See Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 24a). This, in our view,

could lead to either a material decline in average sales densities across the entire BMA retail

floorspace stock and/or an increase in vacancies, particularly in smaller retail centres,

amongst local shops and in secondary locations in larger centres. In broad terms the over-

supply of non-bulky comparison goods floorspace by 2015 would be around 54,000 sq m net

(83,000 sq m gross). If this over-supply was reflected in an increase in voids the vacant

floorspace would be likely to increase by significantly more than this amount, since the stock

going out of use would be less productive.

The Six Council Districts

7.11 Adopting the assumption that each Council District should retain into the future its existing

(base year) market share of available non-bulky comparison goods expenditure, Table 7.4

sets out the residual headroom expenditure figures for each district in 2015 (at the end of the

Plan period) after taking into account hard commitments (only) and hard commitments and

soft proposals together.

Table 7.4 Residual Headroom Expenditure at 2015 by Council District: Non-Bulky

Comparison Goods

Council Area Hard Commitments

Only £m

Hard Commitments and Soft Proposals

£m Belfast -28 -284 Carrickfergus -3 -3 Castlereagh 38 36 Lisburn 11 -4 Newtownabbey -33 -35 North Down 24 23 BMA 9 -267

Source: Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Tables 21a and 24a.

7.12 The data confirms that by 2015 only three of the six Council Areas show a quantitative need

for additional non-bulky comparison goods floorspace after taking into account hard



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commitments. These are Castlereagh, Lisburn and North Down. When soft retail proposals

are also included only Castlereagh and North Down emerge as districts with the capacity to

accommodate more retailing provision. Moreover, in all areas of positive need the additional

floorspace requirement is relatively modest – around 7,000 sq m net or less. The Belfast

Council District shows a very large negative residual headroom expenditure at the end of the

Plan period of some £284 million. This is due mainly to the inclusion of major retail

proposals within Belfast City Centre.

Individual Centres

7.13 The main focus of additional retail capacity for non-bulky comparison goods (after taking

into account hard commitments) is Belfast City Centre, whilst Lisburn City Centre and

Bangor town centre also show positive quantitative need. The catchment areas of some of

the district centres also show a need for additional floorspace, but having regard to the clear

directions of the planning guidance set out in the RDS and the conclusions of our health

checks (Section 4), we are of the view that this need should, where possible, be

accommodated within nearby city and town centres. The further inclusion of soft proposals

reduces the quantitative need within those centres where there are retail development

applications awaiting a planning decision.


The BMA as a Whole

7.14 Between 2002 (our base year) and 2015 (the end date of the BMAP), we estimate that £181

million of expenditure will become available to support additional bulky comparison goods

floorspace within the BMA as a whole. However, it is estimated that all of the hard

commitments will soak up some £219 million of this spend by 2015, producing an

expenditure deficit of around £45 million, once a small amount of under-trading is also taken

into account. (See Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 21b). Moreover, when soft proposals are

also included the deficit in expenditure by 2015 reaches £117 million – equivalent to almost

two-thirds of the growth in available headroom expenditure. (See Volume 3, Appendix 1B,

Table 24b).



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7.15 Table 7.5 sets out the residual expenditure figures for each District in 2015 (the end date of

the BMAP) after taking into account hard commitments (only) and hard commitments and

soft proposals together. We again adopt the assumption of constant market shares.

Table 7.5 Residual Headroom Expenditure at 2015 by Council District: Bulky

Comparison Goods


Only £m


£m Belfast 31 -43 Carrickfergus -20 -20 Castlereagh 7 7 Lisburn -31 -17 Newtownabbey -27 -33 North Down -4 -11 BMA -45 -117

Source: Volume 3, Appendix 1B, Table 21b.

7.16 As confirmed by Table 7.5 by 2015 only two Council Districts – Belfast and Castlereagh –

will show a need for additional bulky comparison goods floorspace in excess of existing hard

commitments. Moreover, once soft proposals are also taken into account, there remains a

positive need only within Castlereagh District and this is for just an estimated 2,000 sq m net

of retail floorspace.

7.17 Our quantitative need assessment includes a retail commitment relating to the Marine

Business Park in the Carrickfergus Council Area. We believe that this approved scheme may

not proceed due to a shortage of market demand. (Full details in Volume 2, Appendix 10C.)

If it did not proceed, then the over-supply of bulky comparison goods which we forecast

within the Carrickfergus Council Area by 2015 would not come about and the Council Area

would in fact be close to equilibrium. However, there would remain a material over-supply

of such retail facilities throughout the BMA as a whole by 2015 (including commitments).

Individual Centres

7.18 Since almost all of the hard commitments and soft proposals for bulky comparison goods are

located out of centre, it is perhaps not surprising that is it Belfast City Centre which shows



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the largest positive need for more retail provision of this type, although Lisburn City Centre

and Bangor town centre also have positive floorspace requirements. Again the catchment

areas of some of the district centres show a need, but in line with planning guidance from the

RDS and the conclusions of our health checks, we believe that this should be met, wherever

possible, through new retail development within nearby city and town centres and at

Sprucefield.1

Convenience Goods

The BMA as a Whole

7.19 Between the base year (2002) and the end date of the BMAP (2015), we estimate that £157

million of new expenditure will become available to support additional convenience goods

floorspace within the BMA. Set against this growth in spend, however, it is estimated that all

of the hard commitments within the BMA will absorb around £135 million, producing a

relatively small expenditure surplus in 2015 of £12 million, once the very modest level of

under-trading in the base year is taken into account.(See Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Table

15). In other words, across the BMA as a whole, food stores either under construction or

with planning consent will just fall short of meeting the quantitative need for additional

convenience goods floorspace over the Plan period. Moreover, there is in addition an

estimated 21,119 sq m net of soft proposals throughout the BMA, which will soak up a

further £179 million of spend. Therefore, including hard commitments and soft proposals

together produces an expenditure deficit by 2015 of £166 million. (See Volume 3,

Appendix 1C, Table 18).

7.20 On the basis of our quantitative assessment, we therefore conclude that only a limited

amount of additional convenience goods floorspace should be granted consent within the

BMA through to 2015, and that this should come towards the end of the Plan period. This

finding is therefore broadly consistent with the conclusion of the NIRRS that there is no

need for additional foodstores at a regional level.


7.21 Adopting the assumption that each Council District retains its existing market share of

1 See paragraphs 7.34 to 7.38 inclusive below.



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available convenience goods expenditure going forward, Table 7.6 summarises the residual

headroom expenditures for each Council District in 2015 after taking into account hard

commitments (only) and hard commitments and soft proposals together.

Table 7.6 Residual Headroom Expenditure at 2015 by Council District: Convenience

Goods


Only £m


£m Belfast 41 -30 Carrickfergus 7 7 Castlereagh 3 -99 Lisburn -3 -3 Newtownabbey -18 -21 North Down -19 -21 BMA 12 -166

Source: Volume 3, Appendix 1C, Tables 15 and 18.

7.22 This disaggregation confirms that whilst there may be a very small quantitative floorspace

need within the BMA as a whole after commitments, there are divergences at the Council

District level. For example, we forecast a large positive floorspace need in the Belfast

Council Area by 2015, but an over-supply in both Newtownabbey and North Down.

Carrickfergus, Castlereagh and Lisburn will, we estimate, be close to equilibrium. When soft

proposals are included, however, all Council Districts except Carrickfergus show an over-

supply of floorspace by the end of the Plan period.

7.23 There are a very small number of convenience goods proposals which appear in The

Planning Service’s schedule and are included in our quantitative need assessment, which we

feel may not be built in practice should they be granted planning consent. These are detailed

in Volume 2, Appendix 10C. For example, if the Morrison’s proposal does not get built due

to the site being developed for residential use then this will reduce the level of negative

residual headroom expenditure by 2015 in the Belfast Council District from around £30

million to £3 million. Similarly, the possible exclusion of another food superstore proposal

in Castlereagh District will be likely to reduce the level of negative residual headroom

expenditure in 2015 from £99 million to around £60-£70 million. Lastly, if a new Safeway

superstore approved at Ballyclare was to result in the closure of the existing town centre

Safeway supermarket and the unit did not revert to a convenience goods use, then this would

release another £14 million of convenience goods expenditure, reducing Newtownabbey’s



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residual headroom expenditure deficit in 2015 from £19 million to £5 million. These

alternative scenarios do not have a material impact on the overall conclusions of our

quantitative need assessment.

Individual Centres

7.24 Reflecting the clear direction of planning guidance set out in the RDS and the conclusions of

our health checks, we believe that any modest additional floorspace need in this goods sector

should again be met, where possible, through new city and town retail development. This

approach would also lead to a reduction in the over-trading that is currently occurring in

convenience goods at a number of the district centres.

Quantitative Retail Need: Policy Issues

7.25 The BMA has experienced around 400,000 sq m gross of new retail development over the

past 15 years. Much of this has been developed outside of traditional city and town centres,

resulting in many of them suffering from symptoms of retail and economic decline.

Moreover, despite this huge amount of new retail development, and with most forms of

retailing now provided for, the BMA (and indeed Northern Ireland as a whole) is in the

unfortunate position of having its two designated regional shopping centres – Belfast City

Centre and Sprucefield – performing significantly below their required level in the retail

hierarchy. In line with the guidelines set out in the RDS, the BMAP must therefore address

this issue and support further appropriate retail investment at these two locations, whilst also

supporting the vitality and viability of existing town centres by ensuring that they are

normally the preferred location for major new retail development.

Belfast City Centre

7.26 We are aware of, and in agreement with, the qualitative need to transform Belfast City

Centre into a retail destination commensurable with its role as a regional centre for Northern

Ireland. To this end, planning consent has already been granted to the Multi Development

Corporation (MDC) scheme (estimated 2015 non-bulky comparison goods turnover of £133



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million) and this has been included in our quantitative assessment as a ‘hard’ commitment.1

However, there are further major retail developments planned for the city centre, which we

have treated as ‘soft’ proposals.

7.27 If planning consent was granted to these existing soft proposals within Belfast City Centre,

then we estimate that the city centre’s share of available non-bulky comparison goods

expenditure within the BMAP area would rise from an estimated 42% in 2002 (the base

year) to probably in excess of 60% by 2015. Under this scenario it is possible that the higher

projected market share of Belfast City Centre would exceed those in a number of comparable

cities in Great Britain, although we recognise that it is difficult to make direct comparisons

due to big variations in the quality and quantity of retail competition available within these

urban areas.

7.28 The RDS seeks to support and strengthen Belfast City Centre as the leading regional

shopping centre in Northern Ireland. The BMAP must be consistent with this strategy. In this

context the proposals for further retail investment in Belfast City Centre should not be

resisted on retail policy grounds, although ultimately their development will only come

about if they have the support of the market. In practice, however, the scale of the potential

expansion of the city centre retail economy will, given the limit to quantitative retail need

within the BMA as a whole during the Plan period, be likely to divert some retail

expenditure away from existing city, town and district centres. Such trade diversions would

be minimised if The Planning Service did not grant planning consent to other soft retail

proposals within the BMA and some of the schemes already in the development pipeline

with planning consent did not get built. We believe that, in practice, it is likely to be Lisburn

City Centre, the larger town centres such as Bangor, and the district centres which will

experience the largest diversions of trade, since they will compete most directly with the

kind of retailing proposed for Belfast City Centre. This is important because our health

check assessments (Section 4) confirm that it is the smallest town centres which are the

weakest in retailing terms and therefore least able to withstand any future losses of retail

expenditure. In broad terms, therefore, there appears scope to significantly enhance the retail

economy of Belfast City Centre, whilst continuing to protect the smaller (and weaker) town

centres through a policy of encouraging, where possible, new retail investment to locate

1 Our quantitative need assessment includes two small non-bulky comparison goods retail commitments in Belfast City Centre which we believe may not be developed. Details are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 10C. This could result in our calculations under-estimating retail floorspace need in the city centre by a very small amount (c. 1,100-1,200 sq m net), but this has no material impact on our conclusions.



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within them.

Town Centres

7.29 We believe that planning policy should encourage new retail investment to locate in existing

city and town centres. However, the successful implementation of such a strategy will be

dependent on appropriately located and sized sites being brought forward for development

within the BMA. Any lack of such sites is likely to act as a barrier to the realisation of new

retail investment in town centres. Such a development constraint will only be removed (or at

least minimised) within town centres through the assistance of public sector involvement in

site assembly (eg. through vesting powers) in order to facilitate the necessary retail

expansion and enhancement of town centres. We therefore recommend that appropriate

actions are taken at the earliest opportunity to assist in the retail regeneration of town

centres. To this end, we would suggest that appropriate parties identify large scale sites in

town centres suitable for accommodating new retail investment.

7.30 We also believe that for particularly under-performing town centres, such as Carrickfergus,

significant sites must be made available that can incorporate the range and variety of retailers

required to make a quantum difference to their retail performance and attractiveness to

consumers.

District Centres

7.31 Our recommendations in relation to city and town centres within the BMA do not preclude

the further expansion of existing district centres. However, the strong presumption should be

that any new retail development is directed towards nearby city and town centre sites or, in

relation to bulky comparison goods only, to Sprucefield. Accordingly, although our constant

market share ‘model’ forecasts a quantitative need for additional retail floorspace (mainly for

non-bulky comparison goods and convenience goods) at a number of the district centres

within the BMA, there are planning reasons for re-directing any identified need to nearby

city or town centres where the case for retail investment is stronger. Such an approach is

consistent with the planning guidance set out in the RDS and the conclusions of our town

centre health checks.

7.32 We believe that the district centres have fulfilled an important retail role in providing



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consumers within the BMA with convenience and choice in relation to their shopping

patterns, and will continue to do so. We also believe that existing district centres can co-exist

with city and town centres and indeed fulfil a complementary role. Going forward, although

there is a strong presumption in favour of locating any new retail investment within city and

town centres, the further expansion of district centres may be considered in those instances

where a need for further retail development has been demonstrated and where suitable and

viable city and town centre sites are unlikely to be available within a reasonable period of

time.1 In this context, we would recommend that the statutory bodies play a pro-active role in

retail site assembly within city / town centres.

7.33 Special reference must be made to Dairy Farm District Centre which our household survey

indicates at present has a very low level of trading performance. However, in order to help

regenerate the area in which it is located, we believe it should be allowed to expand. The

centre is located in the middle of a large area of population which is currently poorly served

in terms of retail provision.

Sprucefield Regional Shopping Centre

7.34 Our quantitative assessment at the BMA level indicates that the present retail development

pipeline for bulky comparison goods more than meets the identified quantitative need for

further provision. Our findings are therefore consistent with those of the NIRRS, which

concluded that ‘many of the urban areas of Northern Ireland are plentifully supplied with

retail warehousing…’ and ‘…that immediate moratoriums should be imposed on the

granting of any further planning permissions.’ However, as noted above, at the Council

District and centre level, there are a small number of locations in which modest levels of

localised need have been identified. Moreover, although our constant market shares

approach identifies the out of centre Sprucefield as having an over-supply of bulky

comparison goods shopping by the end of the Plan period in 2015, there is in fact a strong

planning case for supporting its further expansion.

7.35 The RDS identifies Sprucefield as a regional shopping centre (just like Belfast City Centre)

yet it is not performing to this designation in the retail hierarchy. This is confirmed by the

1 The length of time which is deemed to be ‘reasonable’ will depend on local factors. In most cases, we would envisage this to be around two to three years rather than a matter of months. Factors which are likely to impact on what time-period is considered reasonable include the size of the proposed retail development and the extent to which the town centre is in need of the retail investment to underpin its vitality and viability.



143

results of our household survey. In order to achieve its status as a regional shopping centre,

there is a need for further retailing to be developed on-site to make it more attractive to

consumers over a wide area.

7.36 The present planning consents, once implemented, should almost double the size of

Sprucefield and increase its annual retail turnover from £79 million to around £150-£170

million. However, even this will only get Sprucefield to within touching distance of the

largest BMAP district centres, which have annual retail turnovers of c. £180-£185 million.

Clearly in order to attain true regional shopping centre status and to attract trade from across

a wide area, further retail expansion beyond the existing retail commitments is likely to be

necessary. Although we consider that the need for additional convenience goods shopping

provision at Sprucefield will have been met with the planned Sainsbury’s superstore, there

will remain, in our view, a requirement for further comparison goods floorspace.

7.37 Our recommendation is that Sprucefield should be permitted to expand to a size of at least

75,000 sq m net of retail floorspace. This is around 50,000 sq m net larger than the existing

retail footprint1 and about 30,000 sq m net larger than the centre once the existing planning

consents have been built out. This should go a long way to ensuring that Sprucefield gains

the necessary critical mass and level of retail attractiveness for it to function as a true

regional shopping centre. This scale of retail provision is also likely to be necessary for

Sprucefield to distinguish itself from other city / town centres and the larger district centres

within the BMA. The target minimum size of 75,000 sq m net for Sprucefield compares to

118,000 sq m net in Belfast City Centre and 41,000 sq m net in Lisburn City Centre,

although this figure is likely to increase to some 62,000 sq m net if development under-

construction and hard commitments are included. In Great Britain the out of town regional

shopping centres occupy between 80,000 to 100,000 sq m net of retail floorspace.

7.38 We would, however, recommend that any additional retail provision at Sprucefield is

restricted to bulky comparison goods to avoid undue competition with city and town centres.

Furthermore, such provision should ideally be set aside for large trading format stores only,

for example, those which would be unique to Northern Ireland, such as Ikea. This would

distinguish Sprucefield from a host of existing and proposed (standard) retail warehouse

parks within the BMA, and thus reinforce its role as a regional centre.

1 As at March 2002.



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7.39 As stated above, we recommend that the BMAP should provide for the future expansion of

the Sprucefield site to accommodate at least another 30,000 sq m net of bulky comparison

goods retail floorspace.

7.40 It is difficult to provide firm advice on the quantum of additional land that will be required to

accommodate another 30,000 sq m net of floorspace, since much will depend on the new

access road layout and servicing arrangements, and how these will integrate with the

infrastructure on the existing site. In addition, there is the trend towards mezzanine floors

being introduced into retail warehouses, which can result in significantly more retail

floorspace being accommodated on the same building footprint.

7.41 However, with these reservations in mind, assuming a net to gross ratio of 90:100, and

assuming further that the existing commitments will fully utilise the present site, we

recommend that 12 to 15 hectares (30 to 37 acres) of additional land should be allocated to

accommodate 30,000 sq m net of bulky comparison goods floorspace at single floor level1.

This also assumes institutional standard car parking requirements and allowing for service

yards, landscaping and roadways.

7.42 However, if the new retail facilities were to include mezzanine levels then the area of land

required to accommodate 30,000 sq m net of retail could be reduced to around 8 to 10

hectares (20 to 25 acres).

7.43 These figures can only be estimates since specific retailers have specific floorspace and

layout requirements. For example, an IKEA, although requiring a 27,000 to 30,000 sq m

unit would require only around 6 to 8 hectares (15 to 20 acres) as their buildings are

normally on two levels.

7.44 In practice, it is possible that any retail development on part, or all, of any potential land

extension may not occur in the short to medium term. Nevertheless, any potential extension

of Sprucefield should remain solely for bulky comparison goods and no other format of

retailing.

1 The lower figure represents the likely minimum requirement, whilst the higher figure provides a small “cushion”; this may be necessary if, for example, the allocated land is of unusual configuration and/or does not relate well to the existing site.



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Retailing Along Arterial Routes and at Designated Local Centres

7.45 Similar to other major urban areas in the UK, there is a significant amount of retail

floorspace within the BMA which is located outside of Belfast City Centre, the defined

Town and District Centres and Sprucefield. Although some of this floorspace is taken up by

stand-alone superstores and retail warehouse parks, a lot is found along the Arterial routes

leading into Belfast City Centre and at a number of Local Centres. The vast majority of this

floorspace is, in fact, located within Belfast Council District as confirmed by the data

provided by The Planning Service and summarised at Volume 2, Appendix 9E.

7.46 Within the Belfast context, the importance of this “residual” retail floorspace was first

identified in the Belfast Urban Area Plan, published in 1990. This Plan recognised that

Arterial routes (or radial roads) provide an essential and varied service to local residential

neighbourhoods. It also noted that retailing along such routes was used extensively by local

shoppers arriving on foot and those using public transport (buses). As such the retail

provision is especially important for people without access to a car. The Plan therefore

recommended that linear and local shopping centres should be enhanced wherever possible.

7.47 However, this focus on Arterial routes and Local Centres was not carried through into the

June 1996 Planning Policy Statement 5, Retailing and Town Centres, which now takes

precedence over the Belfast Urban Area Plan in relation to planning policy.

7.48 The more recently published RDS1 does refer to Belfast’s Arterial routes and promotes their

upgrade with an integrated approach which sustains and enhances the existing “Urban

Villages” along the routes. Since BMAP must be in general conformity with the RDS, it

should therefore plan positively for their maintenance and enhancement, but in a way which

is consistent with broader retail planning objectives.

7.49 In our view there is a requirement to strike a balance in policy terms between encouraging

and supporting proposals for retail development within designated areas along Arterial

routes and at designated Local Centres, and preventing large-scale retail schemes/stores

more suited to City Centres, Town Centres and District Centres. This is especially important

in view of this report’s conclusions on the limited capacity available to support new retail

1 The Regional Development Strategy: Shaping Our Future was adopted by The Northern Ireland Assembly in September 2001.



146

development in the BMA during the Plan period.

7.50 As highlighted in the Belfast Urban Area Plan there are sound planning reasons to

encourage new retail provision within designated Local Centres and at designated areas

along Arterial routes. Many of these existing shopping locations, for example, are located

within Belfast Council District and serve relatively economically deprived areas of the city.

It is therefore particularly important that people living in these areas have convenient access

to shops either on foot or by public transport, since many local residents may not have access

to a car.

7.51 With the increasing concentration of retail into the City Centres, Town Centres and District

Centres within the BMA over the past 10-20 years, many of the shopping areas along the

Arterial routes are likely to have contracted in terms of their retail offers1, a feature typical of

similar locations in large cities throughout the UK, although in combination, as stated above,

they continue to account for a significant quantum of retail floorspace, albeit a sizeable

proportion of this total may be taken up by shops occupying poor quality accommodation

and bordering on the edge of viability. Encouraging new retail facilities in designated

Arterial route locations and at Local Centres should therefore play a major role in their

regeneration both physically and economically, and help sustain the local communities

which they serve.

7.52 Although the requirement to maintain and enhance designated Local Centres and areas along

Arterial routes is important, it is equally important that these areas should not become

locations for large-scale retail development. This is for three reasons. First, such

development is much more suited in terms of size, role and function to City Centres, Town

Centres and District Centres, where this form of shopping provision is already well

established. Second, if large-scale development was to be permitted in Local Centres and

along Arterial routes then this could impact adversely on the existing local shops already

present in these locations and may also prejudice the role of other centres. Third, the

quantitative need assessment carried out as part of this study, indicates that, in addition to

schemes already in the development pipeline with planning consent, there is likely to be only

limited scope for additional retailing provision to be provided within the BMA during the

Plan period. Clearly, such provision should be located in the most appropriate locations.

1 One important exception is the Lisburn Road, which has grown in importance as a retail destination and is now attracting drive-by trade as well as expenditure from local people.



147

7.53 We understand that urban design work being carried out on behalf of The Planning Service

will result in the Arterial routes within the BMA being defined. Moreover, along each of

these routes shopping/commercial frontages and commercial nodes will be also designated.

Similarly, we understand the BMAP will define a schedule of Local Centres, which will sit

beneath Regional, Town and District Centres in the shopping hierarchy.

7.54 In terms of devising a policy approach to these Local Centres and designated areas along

Arterial routes, we recommend that new retail development is encouraged as long as it is of

small scale and serves local needs. This is important because we believe that Local Centres

are best strengthened by providing a range of new facilities that are consistent with their

existing role and function, and which meet the day to day needs of local people. In terms of

permissible new development, we envisage that this would relate to convenience and small

non-bulky comparison goods shopping only and be of a form that would attract those retail

trades traditionally associated with local shopping centres such as corner shops (small

grocers), speciality food shops (e.g. baker, butcher, greengrocer, etc), chemists, off-licences,

and CTNs (confectioners, tobacconists and news agents). In addition, small scale retail

service units and catering outlets should be encouraged, since there is a strong consumer

need for such facilities to be provided locally and in accessible locations throughout the

BMA.

7.55 We recommend that the most suitable policy for promoting an appropriate form of retail

development within designated frontages and nodes along Arterial routes and in designated

Local Centres is by setting an upper limit to the size of development that is permissible.

This upper limit should relate to the size of the proposed development as a whole, but

consideration should perhaps also be given to applying an upper size limit to individual retail

units within a development, such that only relatively small retail stores which serve local

areas are provided for. In practice, this is likely to favour the development of convenience

rather than comparison goods shopping. Clearly any proposal for retail development above

these limits should be directed to nearby City, Town or District Centres, where it will be

consistent with the scale of existing retail provision and the role and function of such centres,

which tend to be focused primarily on comparison goods retailing.

7.56 Lastly, coalescence of shops should be discouraged to prevent a “critical mass” of shopping

provision that could evolve to attract consumers living over a wide area. This form of



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piecemeal development is therefore inconsistent with the planning objective that Local

Centres should serve local catchments.

Quantitative Retail Need: Summary

7.57 The ‘problem’ facing The Planning Service in fostering important retail and economic

planning benefits is the sheer scale of the existing retail development pipeline – 238,000 sq

m net of floorspace within the BMA and an estimated turnover (by 2015) of more than

£1,200 million. Within each of the three goods sectors (convenience, non-bulky and bulky

comparison goods) the number of hard commitments (many of them again out of centre) on

their own is enough to soak up virtually all of the forecast growth in available retail

expenditure within the BMA throughout the Plan period, whilst the inclusion of soft

proposals points to a huge over-supply of retail floorspace in all goods sectors by 2015. This

also assumes that none of the growth in retail expenditure will be absorbed by the existing

quantum of vacant retail floorspace stock throughout the BMA – estimated by The Planning

Service at around 116,000 sq m in mid 2001. Clearly, if this occurred to some extent then the

forecast over-supply of retail floorspace at the end of the Plan period would be even higher.

7.58 Equally, however, it is important to bear in mind that not all of the retail schemes with

planning consent (hard commitments) may be brought forward and built. If this were to

happen on a significant scale and The Planning Service did not grant any new planning

consents, then the possibility of a short-fall in retail floorspace provision by the end of the

Plan period could not be ruled out. Furthermore, the possibility that some of the existing

retail floorspace in secondary areas could fall out of productive retail use during the Plan

period through obsolescence is also a factor here. This scenario does, however, highlight the

need to show some flexibility in retail policy going forward and also a requirement that The

Planning Service closely monitors retail vacancy rates and changes to the retail development

pipeline throughout the Plan period.

Quantitative Retail Need vs Physical Capacity

7.59 As noted above, within the BMA as a whole there are already enough retail commitments

(schemes under construction or with planning consent) to absorb virtually all of the new

consumer retail expenditure that will come available through to the end of the BMAP in

2015. In addition, the range of proposals also in the development pipeline will, if they are



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approved and built, increase the supply of retail floorspace to a level that will comfortably

exceed demand in terms of consumer spending volumes.

7.60 What this means, of course, is that there is already plenty of physical capacity within the

BMA as a whole to accommodate the required additions to retail floorspace provision, since

all of the approved applications for development (ie, the retail commitments) will have

identified appropriate sites for retailing. In other words, there are no physical capacity

constraints for the BMA retail property sector for the time-period covered by BMAP.

Accordingly, we do not believe there is a need to extend the boundaries of city and town

centres solely for the reason of accommodating future retail development. Similarly, there is

no need to identify (new) out of centre sites beyond those which already accommodate

existing retailing facilities and those linked to retail commitments.

7.61 As described earlier, although there is no material need for any additional retailing beyond

commitments within the BMA as a whole, we do identify certain centres (or localised areas)

which show a quantitative need when we adopt the assumption of maintaining existing

market shares of available expenditure through the Plan period.1 In most cases the

requirement for additional retail floorspace is relatively modest and should be

accommodated within the recommended city / town centre boundaries. A potential exception

is if the further expansion of the district centres (out of centre shopping malls) was deemed

necessary. This may require the footprint of one or more of these locations to be extended.

However, as the health checks in Section 4 have confirmed, there are a number of town

centres which require the enhancement of their retail offers and it would be prudent to direct,

as far as possible, new retail investment to these locations instead.

Retail Boundaries, Cores and Frontages

7.62 The Operational Specification requires us to make recommendations for the BMAP

concerning the geographical definitions of:-

• city / town centre boundaries;

• primary retail cores within city / town centres;

• protected retail frontages within city / town centres; and

1 In these circumstances, there are many other centres (and local areas) which we forecast will have an over-supply of retail floorspace.



150

• boundaries of the district centres.

7.63 In discussion with The Planning Service, it was agreed that the range of definitions required

for each city / town centre should be as summarised in Table 7.7. The maps of each centre

showing the required boundaries, cores and frontages are reproduced in Volume 2,

Appendix 11A.

Table 7.7 Summary of Geographical Definitions Required for each BMAP City / Town

Centre

Centre City / Town Centre Boundary

Primary Retail Core

Protected Retail Frontage

Ballyclare a Bangor a a a Belfast a a a Carrickfergus a a Carryduff a Holywood a a Lisburn a a a a Definition required

7.64 In addition, it was also agreed with The Planning Service that we would define boundaries

for each of the following 12 district centres:-

• Abbey Centre • Kennedy Way • Bloomfield Centre • Northcott Centre • Connswater • Park Centre • Dairy Farm • Springhill Centre • Forestside / Upper Galwally • Westwood Centre • Hillview (under construction) • Yorkgate Centre

City / Town Centre Boundaries

7.65 This boundary is designed to define what geographically constitutes the city or town centre.

It should include all existing and planned uses which have a city / town centre function; thus

leisure, entertainment, cultural, civic and office uses, for example, should be included as well

as retailing. In relation to retail, the boundary encompasses the area from which we consider

the quantitative need (if any) for additional retail floorspace can be met during the Plan

period. In general, we forecast little (if any) quantitative need for further retail provision in



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the BMAP city / town centres over and above the existing retail commitments and proposals.

Accordingly, little land has to be set aside to accommodate this need, and this in turn means

that the city / town centre boundaries do not have to be materially extended. We also believe

that a more intensive use for retail of existing city / town centre areas (e.g. in fill sites,

selective redevelopment and the reduction in voids) should be encouraged within the BMAP.

7.66 We recommend a small number of changes to the boundary definitions set out in the Belfast

Metropolitan Area Plan 2015 (BMAP) Issues Paper. The main material changes are as

follows:-

Ballyclare – we include the leisure centre within the town centre boundary as previously

defined in the Newtownabbey Area Plan, 2005.1

Bangor – in order to focus development on the core town centre and its associated functional

areas, we have excluded the residential Maxwell area from the town centre boundary as it

does not conform to town centre use, but have included the commercial area and the marina.

Belfast – we are aware that for other purposes and as a result of other studies, the BMAP

team may be minded to extend the city centre boundary to encompass an area on the east

bank of the River Lagan; while our proposed boundary has made provision for this, we do

not believe there is a need for land on the east bank to be allocated for retail use and

therefore do not envisage this being an appropriate location for major new retail

development.

Carrickfergus – we include the existing and proposed marina but exclude an area of

promenade to the north east of the town, which is mainly in residential use.

Carryduff – we have defined a town centre boundary for the first time which includes the

existing shopping centre and Lowe’s Yard on the opposite side of the road; there is scope

for potential retail expansion during the Plan period.

Holywood – we recommend only very minor changes to the boundary as previously defined

in the North Down and Ards Area Plan, 1984-1995.2

Lisburn – we include the civic centre, leisure centre and omniplex within the boundary; in

1 The existing town centre boundary for Ballyclare was not shown in the BMAP Issues Paper. 2 The existing town centre boundary of Holywood was not shown in the BMAP Issues Paper.



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so doing we link the traditional city centre area to the river, thus promoting the river bank

frontages as locations for quality new development.

Primary Retail Cores

7.67 A primary retail core1 defines the main focus of retail activity within a city or town centre,

and should be the area which encompasses new retail investment during the Plan period. It

therefore covers a smaller area than the city or town centre as a whole. We have defined

primary retail cores for Belfast and Lisburn City Centres and the town centres of Bangor,

Holywood and Carrickfergus. The basis of our definitions are as follows:-

Bangor – the retail core is based around Main Street and includes the Flagship Centre and

the Queens Parade development site; the upper end of the High Street has been excluded

because of its decline as a primary shopping street.

Belfast – we have extended the retail core to include the site of the Victoria Square

Shopping Centre; in addition given the retail activity now prevalent on either side of

Donegall Square and its expansion towards College Square East, we have also delineated

these areas.

Carrickfergus – we have defined the retail core to include the High Street, West Street and

the Decourcy Shopping Centre.

Holywood – the retail core is based around the High Street.

Lisburn – within the retail core we have included Bow Street, Market Square, the Bow

Street Mall Shopping Centre and the new Lisburn Square development.

Protected Retail Frontages

7.68 A protected retail frontage defines that part of the city / town centre which should be retained

in retail use. Accordingly, planning policy should resist the change of use of units in these

frontages away from retail, whilst existing non-retail uses in these frontages should be

encouraged through the planning process to revert to retail use when there is a change of

1 Primary retail core areas are mentioned in PPS 5, Paragraph 23.



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ownership and/or they become vacant.1 Protected retail frontages have been defined for

Belfast and Lisburn City Centres and Bangor town centre and are described below. In each

case, all of the protected retail frontage falls within the defined primary retail core for that

city / town centre.

Bangor – we have defined the protected retail frontage to cover Main Street, Bridge Street

and the lower end of the High Street.

Belfast – the protected retail frontages comprise Donegall Place, Royal Avenue, Donegall

Square North, Castle Place, Castle Lane, Corn Market and William Street South.

Lisburn – the protected retail frontage consists of Bow Street and the north side of Market

Square.

District Centre Boundaries

7.69 We have also for the first time defined the boundaries for the district centres. Maps showing

each district centre boundary are set out in Volume 2, Appendix 11B. In general, our

geographical definitions of a district centre are based on guidance in PPS 5. A common

feature at these locations is retail warehousing being located in close proximity to the malls.

Although not falling within the boundaries, the retail warehousing contributes to the

shopping catchment areas of these district centres and can play an important role in terms of

the overall retail function of these locations. On each map (with the exception of the Abbey

Centre), the green line delineates the extent of the functional boundary of the district centre,

whereas the red line delineates the extent of the trading format of the district centre. In

relation to the Abbey Centre (Newtownabbey District Centre), the red line delineates the

main contiguous massing of comparison retailing within the district centre and its immediate

environment.

The Leisure Sector

7.70 The Government’s existing policy in Northern Ireland is to focus retail development in city /

1 Planning policy in respect of change of use in protected retail frontages is discussed further in relation to leisure uses and retail services at paragraphs 7.70 to 7.83 inclusive below.



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town centres. PPS 51 makes it clear that this policy also relates to leisure uses, since such

facilities add to diversity and therefore contribute to a centre’s vitality and viability.

7.71 A part of the Terms of Reference of this study was to “assess the role played by the retail

service and leisure sectors in sustaining the vitality and viability of the city and town

centres” within the BMA. In Section 3 (paragraphs 3.81 to 3.95 inclusive) we reported on

leisure trip patterns throughout the BMA using data from our household survey.2 The main

findings were:-

• leisure trips are undertaken less frequently than shopping trips;

• leisure and shopping trips are mainly undertaken separately; and

• Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and Bangor Town Centre are the most important

leisure destinations, although a number of purpose-built out of centre leisure facilities are

also important.

7.72 We are able to conclude that although the leisure sector is not as crucial as retail in

contributing to the vitality and viability of the BMAP city/town centres, it nevertheless plays

an important role and is just as important in terms of future policy. All the BMAP city/town

centres contain a broad range of leisure uses; restaurants, bars, cafes, nightclubs and health

clubs, for example, in the smaller towns and these uses, together with theatres, cinemas and

concert halls, in the largest centres.

7.73 Many leisure uses tend to be used more often in the evenings. This makes leisure

complementary to retail; which is mainly a day time activity. Uses which are used during the

day and evening reinforce each other, thus making city/town centres in which they are

located more attractive to local residents, shoppers and visitors. Leisure uses are especially

important in underpinning the evening economy of a city/town centre.

7.74 For these reasons, the BMAP should encourage a broad range of city/town centre functions

and uses, including leisure, where they contribute to the diversity and vitality of a centre. We

1 Paragraph 14. 2 In agreement with The Planning Service, the range of surveys undertaken for this study were designed to mainly generate data on the retail sector. Although, wherever possible, we incorporated questions relating to leisure usage and attitudes, such information should ideally be generated from separate, bespoke leisure surveys. These surveys were beyond the scope of the present study.



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recommend that large scale1 leisure uses should ideally be located in city / town centres.

7.75 Within larger BMAP city/town centres, where there is healthy demand from retailers for

representation, an excessive concentration and/or accumulation of leisure uses should be

avoided at ground floor level in the principal shopping areas. We therefore recommend that

BMAP policy resists change of use from shop to leisure at ground level along the protected

retail frontages2 in Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and Bangor town centre.

Moreover, within the remainder of the primary retail cores3 in these three centres and within

the whole of the primary retail cores of Carrickfergus and Holywood town centres, we would

recommend that change of use from shop to leisure at ground level is only permitted if the

applicant can demonstrate that:-




7.76 Lastly, within the remainder of the defined city / town centre boundaries4 in Belfast City

Centre, Lisburn City Centre, Bangor town centre, Carrickfergus town centre and Holywood

town centre, and within the whole of the defined city / town centre areas in Ballyclare and

Carryduff, we recommend that flexibility should be shown towards the location of leisure

uses. Change of use from shop to leisure in these smaller town centres, and in non prime

retail areas in the larger city / town centres, should be based on individual merits taking into

account factors such as the health of the city/town centre and the likely impact of the leisure

use on the centre’s vitality and viability.

Retail Services

7.77 PPS 55 confirms that town centres consist of a range of appropriate uses, which include retail

1 Large scale leisure uses include theatres, cinemas, concert halls, bingo halls, ten pin bowling, swimming pools / health clubs / gyms. 2 Protected retail frontages have been defined for Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre and Bangor Town Centre. The frontages have been described in paragraph 7.68 and are identified on maps in Appendix 11A, Volume 3. 3 Primary retail cores have been defined for Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre, Bangor Town Centre, Carrickfergus Town Centre and Holywood Town Centre. The retail cores have been described at paragraph 7.67 above and are identified on maps in Appendix 11A, Volume 3. 4 City / town centre boundaries have been defined for all seven BMAP city / town centres. These are identified on maps in Appendix 11A, Volume 3. 5 Paragraph 14.



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services. The location of a diversity of uses in town centres promotes accessibility for a large

section of the population and contributes to their vitality and viability. The policy states that:

“the appropriate mix of uses will depend in the nature and size of the town, however there

will be a presumption in favour of development that would make a positive contribution to

ensuring that existing town centres continue to provide a focus for shopping.” (Paragraph

22).

7.78 In Section 4 of this report we addressed in considerable detail the existing vitality and

viability of each of the BMAP city and town centres. As part of this assessment, the

floorspace taken-up by retail services in each centre was quantified. The data is summarised

in Table 7.8 overleaf.

Table 7.8: Retail Services Floorspace in BMAP City / Town Centres

City / Town Centre Retail Services Sq M Net

Proportion of Total Retail Floorspace

(%)

Belfast 33,197 19 Ballyclare 1,743 18 Bangor 7,170 18 Carrickfergus 3,494 18 Carryduff 994 13 Holywood 2,269 27 Lisburn 7,017 15


7.79 This data confirms that typically retail services occupy between 15% and 20% of retail

floorspace in the BMAP city / town centres, which is a significant total. The two exceptions

are Holywood, where the proportion has risen to 27% on the back of a preponderance of

cafes / coffee shops, and Carryduff, where the proportion is just 13%, since the centre is not

large enough to sustain the full range of services present at other locations. We are therefore

able to conclude that retail services play an important role in all of the BMAP city / town

centres; consumers visit them frequently sometimes as their main reason for visiting a city /

town centre but more usually as part of a main shopping trip. The city / town centre locations

of retail services facilitate linked trips to be undertaken, which contributes to sustainability.

7.80 Despite their preponderance in the BMAP city / town centres most retailers consider that the



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present number of retail services is about right1 and therefore acceptable. Indeed, there is a

general perception that many retailers and consumers would prefer to have units occupied by

services than remain vacant for long periods of time. This is especially true in smaller town

centres, where units tend to remain vacant longer because the demand from retailers for

representation is less. The smaller size and poorer configuration of units in smaller town

centre is also a factor here. Such units may be more attractive to service operators than

retailers.

7.81 However, despite the important contribution which retail services make to town centre

vitality and viability, it is also important not to allow too many of them to cluster together,

particularly in frontages which are most attractive to retailers.

7.82 Our policy recommendations for retail services therefore closely mirror those for leisure,

except that applicants should not be required to demonstrate a quantitative need or follow the

sequential approach to site selection. Along protected retail frontages in Belfast City Centre,

Lisburn City Centre and Bangor town centre, we believe that the BMAP should resist change

of use from shop to retail service at ground level. Within the defined primary retail cores of

Belfast City Centre, Lisburn City Centre, Bangor town centre, Carrickfergus town centre and

Holywood town centre (excluding protected retail frontages), change of use from shop to

retail service at ground level should only be permitted if the applicant can demonstrate that:-




7.83 Finally, within the defined boundaries of city / town centres, except those areas already

defined as protected retail frontages and primary retail cores, flexibility should be shown

towards the location of retail services. Change of use from shop to retail service in these

areas should be based on individual merits taking into account factors such as the existing

health of the city / town centre and the likely impact of the retail service on the centre’s

vitality and viability.

1 See Table 26A, Appendix 5C, Volume 2.

belfast metropolitan retail sector study … · 2018-11-02 · bangor, ballyclare coresiprimary...

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