belgrade city report -...

Belgrade City Report

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Q3

COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2014. All Rights Reserved 2

Belgrade City Report – Q3 2014

Economy/Investment

Economy

Following the severe flooding during May, and a fall in GDP by

1.1% y-o-y in Q2 2014, economic growth of over 2% is expected in

2015. An unavoidable drop in state wages, pensions and industry

leaves GDP growth heavily reliant on exports, creating a modest

3% average forecast for 2016-17, despite an anticipated recovery

in the main EU and Russian markets. Due to its strategic location,

potential for low cost manufacturing and an emerging service sector

focused on I,T which attracts significant FDI, Serbia’s medium term

growth will be driven by rising inward investment. The FDI

attractiveness of Serbia was highlighted by a new $2.1bn Chinese

industrial park commitment which shows potential for private capital

to finance and turn around deficits.

Visible exports are expected to outgrow imports in the upcoming

years, but their rise will be restrained by a real appreciation of the

Serbian dinar as subsidy cuts move inflation above 4%. Oxford

Economics forecasts average inflation of around 4.5% in 2015-

2017.

GDP Growth (%) Rast BDP(%)

Source/Izvor: Oxford Economics, October 2014

According to the National Statistical Office, consumer price growth

in September 2014 recorded an increase of 2.1% compared to the

same period of the previous year. The highest growth was seen in

food and non-alcoholic drinks (2.3%), education (1.6%) and in the

restaurants and hotels sector (0.7%) The largest price decreases

were recorded in the sectors of recreation and culture (-5.8%) and

alcohol drinks and tobacco (-0.1%).

During August 2014, industrial production decreased 13.1%

compared to the corresponding period of 2013. The decrease was

mainly influenced by the mining sector (-23.8%), the processing

industry (-3.8%) and the electrical energy, gas, steam supply and

conditioning sector (-39.8%).

According to the Labour Force Survey conducted by the National

Statistical Office, the unemployment rate in Serbia decreased by

0.5 percentage points in comparison to the previous quarter, and

stood at 20.3% in Q2 2014.

Unemployment Rate (%) Stopa nazaposlenosti (%)

Source/Izvor: Oxford Economics, October 2014

The average net salary in Belgrade during September 2014

amounted to RSD 54,452 or €459, which is approximately 24%

higher than the average salary in Serbia (€370).

Political Situation

Recent regional consultations suggest that the EU recognises that

the Western Balkan countries need more aid and slower deficit

reduction in order to avoid loss of cohesion due to prolonged

austerity. Faster growth reinforced by EU and IMF pressures will

allow more courageous steps towards reorganising state owned

enterprises, whose wage bills have contributed to fiscal deficits.

Any new IMF programme will require deeper fiscal consolidation

and structural reform, which in turn will slow private spending

recovery and make growth more export dependent. Socialist Party

partners are likely to block some of the Progressives’ deficit cutting

and enterprise reform plans which are hard to enforce without

hitting incomes and jobs. A new IMF facility, sought by the

Government in late October talks, will help to ensure funding and

strengthen investor confidence.

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Privreda/Investicije

Privreda

Snažne poplave u maju 2014. godine propratio je pad BDP-a od

1,1% na godišnjem nivou tokom drugog kvartala, i usled toga rast

ekonomije veći od 2% se može očekivati tokom 2015. godine.

Neizbežni pad plata u državnom sektoru, penzija i industrije, dovodi

do oslanjanja BDP-a na izvoz u velikoj meri, izazivajući skromniji

trend rasta od 3% tokom perioda 2016-17. godine, uprkos oporavku

tržišta EU i Rusije. Srednjoročni rast će biti uslovljen porastom

priliva investicija u zemlji usled strateškog položaja, potencijala za

jeftinije troškove proizvodnje kao i zbog sektora usluga u razvoju koji

je usresredjen na informacione tehnologije (IT) koji privlači značajne

investicije. Strane Direktne investicije, istaknute kroz novo

angažovanje od $2,1 milijardi od strane Kine su pokazale potencijal

finansiranja deficita kroz privatni kapital.

Očekuje se da izvoz preraste uvoz u narednim godinama, medjutim

rast će biti ograničen realnom apresijacijom dinara kako smanjenje

subvencija bude pomeralo inflaciju preko 4%. Prema podacima

Oxford Economics-a, predvidjena inflacija u periodu 2015-17.

godine će biti oko 4,5%

CPI (%) Inflacija (%)

Source/Izvor: Oxford Economics, Oktobar 2014.

Prema podacima Republičkog zavoda za statistiku Srbije, rast

potrošačkih cena u septembru 2014. godine je iznosio 2,1% u

odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Najveći rast je zabeležen u

sektorima: hrana i bezalkoholna pića (2,3%), obrazovanje (1,6%), i

restorani i hoteli (0,7%). Najveći pad je zabeležen u sektoru

rekreacije i kulture (-5,8%) i alkoholnih pića i cigareta (-0,1%).

Tokom avgusta 2014. godine industrijska proizvodnja beleži pad

fizičkog obima od 13,1 % u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine.

Sektori koji su doveli do pada su rudarstvo (-23,8%), preradjivačka

industrija (-3,8%) i snabdevanje električnom energijom, gasom,

parom i klimatizacija (-39,8%).

Na osnovu Ankete o radnoj snazi koju sprovodi Republički zavod za

statistiku, stopa nezaposlenosti u Srbiji tokom drugog kvartala 2014.

je smanjena za 0,5 procentnih poena u odnosu prethodni kvartal, i

iznosi 20.3%.Yields % Sta %

Yields % Stope prinosa %

Source/Izvor: JLL, October 2014

Prosečna neto zarada isplaćena tokom septembra 2014. godine u

Beogradu iznosila je 54,452 dinara odnosno €459, sto je oko 24%

više od prosečne plate u Srbiji (€370).

Politička situacija

Nedavni regionalni razgovori su ukazali da Evropska Unija

prepoznaje potrebu medju zemljama zapadnog Balkana za većom

pomoći i sporijim smanjenjem deficita kako bi se izbegao gubitak

kohezije usled duže štednje. Brži rast pojačan pritiscima od strane

EU i IMF-a će omogućiti smelije korake kao što je reorganizacija

državnih preduzeća u kojima su zarade uticale na povećanje

fiskalnog deficita. Svaki naredni program od strane IMF-a će

zahtevati detaljniju fiskalnu konsolidaciju i strukturnu reformu, koja

će usporiti privatnu potrošnju i učiniti ekonomski rast zavisnim od

izvoza. Socijalistička partija teži da blokira neke od reformi za

smanjenje deficita, koje će se otežano sprovesti ukoliko ne dodje do

smanjenja prihoda i radnih mesta. Nova pomoć IMF-a tražena od

strane Vlade tokom kasnih oktobarskih pregovora će osigurati

finansiranje i povećati poverenje investitora.

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Sector / SektorYield / Stopa

Prinosa %

Changes Q-o-Q / Promene

u odnosu na prethodno

tromesečje

Office/ Kancelarijski prostor 9.00 ↔

Shopping Centres/ Tržni centri 8.75 ↓

Logistics/ Logistički objekti 10.25 ↔



Office Market

Supply

The Belgrade office market witnessed no new supply during the first

three quarters of the year. However, there are several ongoing

projects, with one project namely Old Mill office tower (3,870 m2), in

its final stage of construction, with expected completion in the Q4

2014.

Two additional office projects expected to increase the speculative

office stock within the next 12 months include the Deneza office

building (2,670m2) and the 1st phase of GTC’s Fortyone (10,000 m2).

Approximately 60% of GTC’s Fortyone has already been pre-leased.

The entire complex will include three Class A office buildings in

Block 41, with a total gross area of 27,000 m2. Additionally, two

future owner occupied projects include Societe General Bank

(11,000 m2), and Elektrodistribucija Beograd facility (7,700m2), both

located in New Belgrade.

Total A & B Class Stock (m2) / Ukupna ponuda prostora klase

A i B (m2)


Demand

High occupier activity was recorded in Q3 2014 with gross take-up

reaching 18,171 m2. Net take-up accounted for almost the entire

market activity, including owner occupied deals. The overall net

take-up, excluding owner occupier deals, was twice as higher than

the corresponding period of 2013. Market activity was dominated by

new lease requirements (52%), followed by 28% of pre-lease deals,

while the remainder comprised a high share of owner occupied

deals and a significantly lower level of renewals. Approximately 70%

of the transactions took place in CBD area - New Belgrade. Most of

the occupiers were seeking smaller floor plates from 100 m2 up to

600 m2, however there were six deals that exceeded 1,000 m2. The

highest level of activity was recorded in the manufacturing sector

(33%) followed by professional services sector (20%) and IT sector

(19%).

Vacancy

The overall vacancy rate in A and B Class office buildings continued

its decreasing trend and in Q3 stood at 7.9%. The vacancy rate in

Class A buildings stood at 8.5%. This trend is expected to continue

until there are new office deliveries on the market. However, we

believe that new supply will be quickly absorbed as many tenants

are eager for new office space.

A Class Office Completions (m2) and A & B Class Vacancy

Rate (%) / Završena izgradnja zgrada klase A (m2) i stopa

nepopunjenosti u zgradama klase A & B(%)


Rents and Yields

Headline rents for A Class office space in Belgrade have recorded

an increase and now range from €15-17 m2 / month. The increase

was caused by the limited availability of modern office schemes on

the market and decreasing vacancy levels which have created

landlord favourable conditions. B Class rents in New Belgrade range

from €9-11 m2 / month and €10-12 m2 / month in downtown areas.

Rents in the wider New Belgrade area are up to €11 m2 / month,

while modern office rents in in the downtown do not exceed €16m2 /

month. Landlords continue to offer incentives such as rent free

periods (usually three months), fit-out contributions and additional

free parking spaces. Yields for prime offices in Belgrade remained

stable at 9.00%.

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Kancelarijski prostor

Ponuda

Postojećem tržištu kancelarijskog prostora u Beogradu nije dodata

nova ponudom tokom prva tri kvartala 2014. godine. Medjutim,

nekoliko projekata je u toku, od kojih je Stari Mlin poslovna kula

(3,870m2) u završnoj fazi izgradnje sa očekivanim završetkom

tokom narednog kvartala. Dve poslovne zgrade koje će povećati

ponudu kancelarijskog prostora na tržištu u narednih 12 meseci su

Deneza poslovna zgrada (2,670m2) i prva faza GTC Fortyone

(10,000m2). Oko 60% poslovne zgrade GTC Fortyone je unapred

dato u zakup. Čitav kompleks će obuhvatiti tri poslovne zgrade klase

A u bloku 41 sa ukupnom površinom za izdavanje od 27,000m2.

Osim toga, dve poslovne zgrade koje će biti zauzete od strane

vlasnika su zgrada Societe General Banke (11,000m2) i

Elektrodistribucije Beograd (7,700m2), obe na Novom Beogradu.

Prime Office Yields %

Stopa prinosa prvoklasnog prostora %

Source/Izvor: JLL, Oktobar 2014

Potražnja

Tokom trećeg kvartala je zabeležena povećana aktivnost na tržištu

kancelarijskog prostora sa ukupnom bruto aktivnošću od 18,171 m2

površine , dok je neto aktivnost bila gotovo jednaka bruto aktivnosti,

uključujući kancelarijski prostor koji zauzimaju vlasnici istog. Kada

se izuzme prostor zauzet od strane vlasnika, ukupna neto aktivnost

je dva puta bila veća u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine.

Tržišnu aktivnost su činili 52% novi zakupi, zatim 28% pred zakupi,

dok su ostatak činili velikim delom vlasnički zakupi i znatno manji

procenat od obnove ugovora. Oko 70% transakcija su se dogodile u

centralnoj poslovnoj zoni – Novi Beograd. Većina zakupaca je tražila

prostor veličine od 100m2 - 600 m2, medjutim zabeleženo je i šest

transakcija veličine preko 1,000m2 . Najaktivniji zakupci su bili iz

sektora proizvodnje – 33%, zatim iz sektora pružanja profesionalnih

usluga sa 20% i iz informacionih tehnologija sa 19%.

Raspoloživi prostor

Stopa raspoloživog prostora u zgradama klase A i B nastavila je da

opada i tokom trećeg kvartala je iznosila 7,9%, dok je raspoloživ

prostor u zgradama klase A činio 8.5% ponude. Očekivan je

nastavak ovakvog trenda, sve dok ne bude dostupna nova ponuda

kancelarijskog prostora na tržištu. Medjutim, nova ponuda će ubrzo

biti iskorišćena jer mnogi zakupaci željno iščekuju novi prostor.

Prime Rents €/m2/month

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno


Visine zakupa i stope prinosa

Zakup kancelarijskog prostora klase A u Beogradu beleži rast i

trenutno je u rasponu od €15-17 m2/mesečno. Povećanje je

uzrokovano malom ponudom modernog kancelarijskog prostora kao

i opadajućom stopom rapoloživog prostora, koje je stvorilo povoljnije

uslove za zakupodavce na tržištu. Zakup kancelarijskog prostora

klase B na Novom Beogradu je u rasponu €9-11 m2/mesečno, dok

je u starom delu grada €10-12 m2/mesečno. U širem području

Novog Beograda, zakup modernog prostora je u visini do

€11m2/mesečno, dok u centru grada ne prelazi €16m2/mesečno.

Zakupodavci nastavljaju da nude podsticaje poput rent-free perioda

(uglavnom tri meseca), dodatnih parking mesta bez naknade i

učešća u troškovima završnih radova. Stopa prinosa za prvoklasne

kancelarijske prostore u Beogradu je 9,00%.

8.00%

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Retail Market

Supply

During the third quarter, the retail market witnessed increased

activity. Although there have been no new shopping centre

completions since Stadion Vozdovac in 2013, the ongoing activity

relies on the development of retail parks, mainly located within

secondary cities. The limited offer of modern shopping centres on

the market has led to a refocusing of international brands

towards expanding retail parks. In 2014, two retail parks were

delivered to the market, namely Capitol Park in Šabac (9,800 m2

GLA) and the recently opened Vivo Shopping Park in Jagodina

(10,000 m2 GLA).

Belgrade’s prime shopping centre stock remained at 128,000 m2,

with future supply remaining uncertain. However, Israeli company

Ashtrom Group has announced the continuation of construction

of its mixed use complex which will include a shopping centre in

Rajićeva Street (15,300 m2 GLA). Furthermore, IBC company is

scheduled to open the first retail park, One Belgrade, in Belgrade

during spring 2015 (15,000 m2 GLA). Another retail park to be

located in Belgrade will be Aviv Arlon in Zvezdara (11,500 m2

GLA) scheduled to commence construction during autumn 2015.

Prime Shopping Centre Stock in Belgrade (m2)

Ponuda prvoklasnih tržnih centara u Beogradu (m2)


Veropouls has opened another hypermarket (3,000m2 GLA) in

Žarkovo. Swedish retail chain Ikea is in its final stage of

negotiations regarding the construction of its first store in

Belgrade. In addition, Univerexport will increase its retail network

after acquiring local companies Angropromet and Lurdy, which

will secure its position as the third largest retail chain on the

market after Delhaize and the Agrokor Group.

Demand

The vacancy rate within prime assets remained close to zero due

to very strong retailer demand and no new supply. During Q3,

Fashion Company become the official distributer for Calvin Klein

for Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro. Furthermore, as of 2015,

Serbian retail company, Sport Time, will take over operation from

Delta Sport and become the official distributor of the Nike sports

brand for the Balkan Region. In addition, Spanish brand Shana

has opened its first store, occupying 400 m2 in Knez Mihajlova

Street. Within the same street, H&M has opened its largest store

in the country, totalling 2,700 m2 over three levels. Another

market entry was L’Occitane beauty retailer, opening its first

store in Ušće shopping centre occupying 90 m2.

Retail Spending in € per Capita in Belgrade

Maloprodajna potrošnja u € po stanovniku u Beogradu

Source/Izvor: JLL, 2014

Rents and Yields

Average rents in prime shopping centres in Belgrade remained

stable ranging from €25- €27 m2 / month. Prime shopping centre

rents for 100 - 200 m2 retail units are €60 m2 / month, while rent

for such a unit on Knez Mihajlova Street remained at €80

m2/month. Increased investor interest was recorded in Q3 when

Brussels based real estate investment management company

Mitiska Reim acquired an 85% interest in Capitol Park Šabac

from the Poseidon group. Furthermore, Plaza centres have

completed the disposal of its shopping centre, Kragujevac Plaza,

for €38.6 million. Strong demand for prime shopping centres in

Belgrade has been recorded but, a transaction has yet to be

witnessed. Our view on prime shopping centre yields currently

stands at 8.75%.

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Maloprodajni prostori

Ponuda

Tokom trećeg kvartala, maloprodajno tržište je zabeležilo

povećanu aktivnost. Iako nije bilo novih izgradjenih tržnih centara

nakon izgradnje Stadiona Voždovac u 2013. godini, trenutni trend

se oslanja na izgradnju maloprodajnih parkova koji su trenutno

prisutni u drugim gradovima. U 2014. godini, izgradjena su dva

maloprodajna parka Capitol Park Šabac (9,800m2) i nedavno

otvoreni Vivo Shopping park u Jagodini (10,000m2). Ponuda

prvoklasnih tržnih centara u Beogradu je ostala ista i iznosi

128,000m2, dok je buduća izgradnja neizvesna. Medjutim,

izraelska kompanija Ashtrom Group je najavila nastavak izgradnje

mešovitog kompleksa u Rajićevoj ulici koji obuhvata tržni centar

od 15,300m2. Zatim, na proleće 2015. godine očekuje se

završetak radova IBC kompanije na izgradnji maloprodajnog

parka One Belgrade od 15,000m2 u Beogradu. Još jedan

maloprodajni park, Aviv Arlon u Beogradu (11,500m2) će započeti

izgradnju na jesen 2015. godine.

Prime Shopping Center Yields

Stopa prinosa prvoklasnih tržnih centara


Maloprodajni lanac Veropouls je otvorio još jedan hipermarket u

Žarkovu na 3,000 m2 prodajne površine. Švedski maloprodajni

lanac IKEA je u finalnoj fazi pregovora vezano za izgradnju prvog

objekta u Beogradu. Osim toga, Univerexport će povećati

maloprodajanu mrežu nakon preuzimanja lokalnih kompanija

Angropromet i Lurdy, obezbedjujući sebi poziciju trećeg najvećeg

maloprodajnog lanca na tržištu nakon Delhaize-a i Agrokor Group-

e.

Potražnja

Stopa slobodnog prostora u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima u

Beogradu je i dalje oko nule, usled veoma snažne potražnje i

nedostatka nove ponude na tržištu. Tokom trećeg kvartala

Fashion company je postala zvanični distributer za Calvin Klein

brend u Srbiji, Hrvatskoj i Crnoj Gori. Zatim, od 2015. godine

Sport Time , domaća maloprodajna kompanija postaće zvanični

distributer za Nike brend na Balkanu umesto Delta Sport-a.

Španski brend Shana je otvorio svoju prvu prodavnicu na tržištu u

Knez Mihajlovoj ulici i prostire se na 400m2. U istoj ulici je H&M

otvorio svoju najveću prodavnicu u zemlji obuhvatajući 2,700m2

na 3 nivoa. Još jedan ulazak na tržište ostvario je brend

L’Occitane otvaranjem prve prodavnice u Ušće tržnom centru na

90m2.

Prime rents €/m2/month

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno

Source/Izvor: JLL, Oktobar 2014.

Visine zakupa i stope prinosa

Tokom trećeg kvartala zabeležen je veći interes investitora.

Kompanija Mitiska Reim iz Brisela je preuzela 85% interesa od

kompanije Poseidon Group u maloprodajnom parku Capitol u

Šapcu. Kompanija Plaza Centers je završila prodaju svog tržnog

centra u Kragujevcu za €38.6 miliona. Tražnja za prvoklasnim

tržnim centrima u Beogradu je velika, ali još uvek bez realizovanih

transakcija. Shodno tome, prinos prvoklasnih tržnih centara beleži

pad i trenutno je 8.75%. Prosečne cene zakupa u prvoklasnim

tržnim centrima su ostale stabilne u rasponu od €25- €27

m2/mesečno. Cene zakupa maloprodajnih jedinica u prvoklasnim

tržnim centrima površine 100-200 m2 su €60 m2/mesečno, dok su

za isti prostor u Knez Mihajlovoj ulici ostale €80 m2/mesečno.

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Market Practice

Leasing Market Practice

Lease length

Average lease length is 5 years, 3 – 5 years are common in

the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts

In a few cases longer leases can be agreed

3 year break options are becoming more common

Payment Terms

Rents are quoted in € and paid monthly in advance in either

€ or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the

payment

Rental Deposit

It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee

equal to 3 months’ rent for all types of premises (office, retail

and industrial)

Indexation is annually in line with European CPI

Other Charges

Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct

consumption are paid separately)(offices and industrial)

Service charges and marketing costs (retail)

Insurance

The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered

by service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own

premises, contents and civil liabilities

Incentives

Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period,

fit-out contributions and free of charge additional parking

space

Tržišna praksa zakupa prostora

Dužina zakupa

Prosečna dužina zakupa je 5 godina - uglavnom se prostori u

centru grada zakupljuju na 3 – 5 godina, a na periferiji na 5

(retko 7 godina)

U malom broju slučajeva se vrši zakup prostora na duži period

Sve su češće mogućnosti raskida ugovora nakon 3 godine

Uslovi plaćanja

Cene zakupa se navode u € a plaćaju se mesečno unapred ili

u € ili u RSD prema kursu valute na dan plaćanja

Depozit

Praksa je da se depozit plaća u kešu ili bankarskom

garancijom u iznosu od tri mesečne rente za sve vrste

prostora (kancelarijski, maloprodajni i industrijski)

Indeksacija se vrši godišnje i usklađena je sa evropskim

rastom potrošačkih cena

Ostali troškovi

Troškovi usluga i potrošnje električne energije (troškovi

održavanja i direktne potrošnje plaćaju se posebno)

(kancelarijski i industrijski prostori)

Troškovi usluga i marketinga (maloprodajni prostori)

Osiguranje

Vlasnik prostora pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade

(naplaćuje se od naknade za troškove usluga). Zakupac plaća

osiguranje za sopstvene prostorije, pokretnu imovinu i civilna

lica

Podsticaji

Vlasnici prostora prilikom izdavanja mogu davati i podsticaje u

vidu izdavanja prostora na period od 3 meseca bez naknade,

uređenja prostora o sopstvenom trošku ili dodatna parking

mesta gratis


www.jll.rs

COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2014. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.

JLL Office

Mihajla Pupina Boulevard 10L

Belgrade

Serbia

Phone number +381 11 785 0600

Fax number +381 11 785 0597

Contacts

Andrew Peirson

Managing Director

Serbia

+381 11 785 0579

[email protected]

Jana Golubović

Research Analyst

Serbia

+381 11 785 0589

[email protected]

http://www.jll.rs/

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