benecki panel discussion mag 2016permanent magnets significantly influence the global re industry...
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Panel DiscussionMagnetics 2016
Jacksonville, Florida
January 22, 2016
“What’s in Store for theGlobal Magnet Industry?”
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Panelists
• Walt Benecki, Moderator, President,Walter T. Benecki LLC
• Dr. John Ormerod, Sr. TechnologyAdvisor, Magnet Applications Inc.
• Steve Constantinides, Director ofTechnology, Arnold Magnetic TechnologiesInc.
• Yutaka Yoshida, Sr. Mgr., Tech. Support atDaido Steel America
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Discussion Outline
• Brief introduction of participants
• 5-6 key questions about the future ofthe permanent magnet industry
• Questions from the audience
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Walter T. Benecki LLCThe Consultancy Confidentially
Serving the Global Magnet Industry
Strategic Planning - Benchmarking - Acquisitions -Joint Ventures - Dispositions - Pricing Strategy -
Technology Assessments – Business Planning
3720 S. Ocean Blvd., Suite 702Highland Beach, FL 33487
Phone: (847) 624-1170Email: [email protected]
Web Site: www.waltbenecki.com
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Walter T. Benecki LLCNew Consultancy Model – Effective April 2016
• Comprehensive Bi-Monthly Newsletter
• Timely Email News Alerts
• Unlimited Confidential Telephone orEmail Consultation
• Two Complimentary Copies of “The GlobalPermanent Magnet Industry”
• Advance Copies of all presentations andpublished articles
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Magnet Applications, Inc.
• Visit the website at: http://magnetapplications.com• A Bunting Magnetics Company:
https://buntingmagnetics.com/• Largest North American manufacturer of compression
bonded NdFeB and injection molded ferrite andNdFeB magnets.
• Supply full range of engineered magnets andmagnetic assemblies.
• Located in DuBois, PA – Originally established in UKover 50 years ago – sister company located inBerkhamsted, UK..
• Primary applications are BLDC motors and sensors inthe automotive, medical and industrial markets.
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Magnet Applications, Inc.
• Pre-production magnetic design services including 3Dmagnetic modeling
• Industry leading technical services to optimize thematerial for the application
• Investing in R & D for next generation of magneticmaterials
• The backing of strong family ownership – in business forover 55 years
• ITAR / DFARS registered for Defense Industry• ISO-9001 Certified Quality System with continuous
improvement• Very strong international supply chain for the complete
range of permanent magnet materials
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What Arnold does…
Precision ThinMetals
• Magnetic and non-magnetic metals &Alloys from 1.75microns
• Sheets, Strips, &Coils
• Milling, Annealing,Coating, Slitting
• ARNON® MotorLaminationMaterial
MagneticAssemblies
• PrecisionComponentAssembly
• Tooling,Machining,Cutting, Grinding
• Rotor Balancing• Sleeving
MagnetProduction &
Fabrication
• Rare EarthSamarium Cobalt(RECOMA®)
• Alnico, cast &sintered
• Injection molded• Flexible magnets
UltrahighPerformance
Motors
• Smaller, fastermotors
• Power densepackage
• High RPM magnetcontainment
• >200°C Operation
Performance materials enabling energy efficiency
Engineering | Consulting | TestingStabilization & Calibration | Distribution
www.arnoldmagnetics .com 8
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Broad market base & global presence
www.arnoldmagnetics .com
Automotive 10%
Advertising& Promotional
Energy
Consumer& Appliance
Medical
ReprographicSystems
Industrial
10%
5%
Aerospace& Defense
15%
10%
20%
15%
15% Facilities, Engineering,Sourcing & Support
– North America ~50% of Revenue
– Europe ~30% of Revenue
– Asia Pacific ~20% of Revenue
Low cost regionmanufacturing since 1995
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Est. 1990, Nakatsugawa, JapanNEOQUENCH-P, NITROQUENCH-P,NEOQUENCH-DR magnets & appliedproducts
Est. 1994, Ayuthaya, ThailandNEOQUENCH-P magnets for hard disk drivespindle motors, also NEOQUENCH-DR
Est. 2003, Suzhou, ChinaNEOQUENCH-DR magnets for EPS andservo motors
Est. 2002, Shenzhen, ChinaNEOQUENCH-P magnets for sensors andsmall motors
Daido Electronics(Suzhou) Co., Ltd.
Daido Steel Co., Ltd.
Daido ElectronicsCo., Ltd.
Daido Electronics(Thailand) Co., Ltd.
Daido Electronics(Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.
Magnet R & D
Est. 1916, Nagoya/Tokyo, JapanSpecialty steels, forgings, powders,automotive components, andelectronic/industrial materials
Est. 2011, Nakatsugawa, JapanPLP (Press-less Process) NdFeB sinteredmagnets
Intermetallics Japan
Daido Steel (America) Inc.Est. 1983, Schaumburg, IL, USA, Sales/technical support
Daido Electronics Europe OfficeEst. 2015, Frankfurt, GermanySales/technical support
Yutaka Yoshida, Sr. Manager, Technical Support
MMAGNETICS 2016 Jan. 21-22, Jacksonville, FL
M Keynote Panel – Daido Electronics
Daido Steel Group Magnet Business
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Daido Steel Group Magnet Business
• NEOQUENCH-PIsotropic Polymer-bonded NdFeB (MQ1)
- Injection-molded: 4 - 9 MGOe- Compression-molded: 7 - 12 MGOe
• NEOQUENCH-DRHot-extruded, radially-oriented NdFeB (MQ3):
31 - 43 MGOe• NITROQUENCH-P
Isotropic Polymer-bonded SmFeN:14 MGOe
• PLP seriesPress-less Process Sintered NdFeB:
38 - 50 MGOe
MMAGNETICS 2016 Jan. 21-22, Jacksonville, FL
M Keynote Panel – Daido Electronics
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Not to put too much pressure onour esteemed panel….
• But here are a few predictions made 90 years ago:
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Question #1
• We know that the magnet industry is facingconsiderable unknowns regarding the currentlegal battle between Hitachi and theconsortium of Chinese manufacturers.
• We’re scheduled to hear the US PatentOffice’s “Decision” very shortly.
• Is there anything positive here we can lookforward to?
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Recent Rare Earth RawMaterial Price Trends
(Not much of a trend)
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Permanent Magnets SignificantlyInfluence The Global RE Industry
(Quotes from Argus Consulting Services – Jan 2016 Webinar)
• Rare earth prices have steadily trended downwardsince 2011.
• Permanent Magnets account for about 20% ofglobal REO tonnage, but 60% of the total dollars.
• Magnet demand is forecasted to increase 3-4% inthe next few years.
• Chinese policies will continue to materially impactREO prices.
• The outlook (for REO prices) is “uncertain”.
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Permanent Magnets SignificantlyInfluence The Global RE Industry
(Quotes from Global Rare Earth Metals Market 2015-2019 Report – Jan 2016)
• Analysts predict the rare earth metals market to grow at arate of 14% during the forecast period.
• Primary growth drivers will be use of rare earth metals inthe wind energy sector (magnets!) and NiMH batteries.
• Despite a broad scope of application and a growingdemand, the supply of these elements (REO’s) isgeographically concentrated with the dominance of a fewcountries.
• (The) expansion in the (REO) supplier base will drasticallychange the supplier landscape and is expected to lead to asoftening of prices going forward.
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The REO Outlook is Muddled
• Molycorp is reportedly “Going up for auction” in March.
• Lynas continues on with gradual progress.
• Projections for future REO demand vary quite a bit.
• The Magnet Industry is certainly a significant consumerof Rare Earths.
• It appears that China will continue to dominate theglobal production (and prices) of rare earth materials.
• Chinese government policies are like “shifting sands”.
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Question #2
• Molycorp is reportedly “Going up for auction” in March.
• Lynas continues with challenges, but is hanging in there.
• Projections for future REO growth vary quite a bit.
• The Magnet Industry is a significant consumer of RareEarths.
• It appears that China will continue to dominate theglobal production (and prices) of rare earth materials.
• Chinese government policies are like “shifting sands”.
• How can anyone plan for future price trends?
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New Technology Investments
• Arpa-E, DARPA and EUREFREE have recentlyspent many millions of dollars searching for a“breakthrough magnet material” containingno rare earths. But…..not much to report atthis point!
• Most “new” magnet product development byindustry over the past 5-7 years could best bedescribed as “incremental”.
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Question #3
• Siemens was recently (in 2015) awarded a USPatent covering MnBi permanent magnettechnology
• Niron Magnetics continues to pursue Fe16N2magnets with the University of Minnesota
• Is there any reason to expect a trulysignificant technology breakthrough in thenext few years?
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Question #4
• The Chinese magnet industry is reportedlysuffering from severe over-capacity. Thisappears to be good for buyers and bad forsellers.
• Is there a chance for any significantconsolidation within the Chinese magnetindustry? What about Europe or NorthAmerica?
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Question #5
• A number of companies are currentlyattempting to recycle rare earth magnets(e.g., from disk drives and PM motors)
• Is there any reasonable chance suchinitiatives will prove to be economicallyviable?
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Question #6• Finally, what are the applications that could
potentially accelerate future demand forpermanent magnets? A few candidates:
– Wind turbines– Electric vehicles– Magnetic refrigeration– Advanced consumer electronics– Energy efficient PM motors– Energy storage systems– Additive manufacturing– Something not on today’s radar screen
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Questions fromthe Audience
Thank you for yourparticipation!
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