64 ESPN The Magazine 04/29/2013 i l lustrat ion by JOSUE EVILLA FROM LEFT: K IM KLEMENT/USA TODAY SPORTS; STEVE MITCHELL/USA TODAY SPORTS; KEVIN REECE/AP IMAGES; ALLEN KEE/GETTY IMAGES

THE BEST-DRAFTING TEAM IS …To uncover which teams have been the wisest pickers since the NFL draft went to seven rounds in 1994, we turned to Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric (see right). Turns out, the six franchises atop our rankings have won 11 of the past 13 titles. In other words, the Super Bowl really is won in April. —NEIL PAINE

0

-30

+50

WHAT’S AV? AV is an approximate measure of a player’s value within a given season or career. To calculate AV, Pro Football Reference first accounts for how good or bad a given team was on offense/defense (relative to the league average), then assigns an approximate value to each player based on his contributions to that team, using metrics like games started, Pro Bowls and All-Pros, along with stats particular to each position.

WHAT’S SURPLUS AV? For a player, it’s calculated by subtracting the expected value of his draft slot (Expected AV) from his actual value (Career AV). For example, Tom Brady’s Career AV (178.0) exceeds the Expected AV of the No. 199 pick (7.9), giving him a +170.1 Surplus AV. For a team, Surplus AV per year—the metric by which every team is ranked—is the Surplus AV of all its picks divided by the number of drafts in which it participated since 1994. The equation:

SUR

PLU

S AV

/YEA

R

WHAT'S AV?

CAREER AV( YEARS— EXPECTED AV ) SURPLUS AV/YEAR

HOW WE RANKED THEM

PACK

ERS

STEE

LERS

COLT

S

RAVE

NS

PATR

IOTS

GIAN

TS

SEAH

AWKS

JETS

BRON

COS

EAGL

ES

OILE

RS/T

ITAN

S

49ER

S

FALC

ONS

PANT

HERS

COW

BOYS

VIKI

NGS

BEAR

S

BILL

S

BUCC

ANEE

RS

JAGU

ARS

DOLP

HINS

RAM

S

CHAR

GERS

CHIE

FS

BENG

ALS

CARD

INAL

S

TEXA

NS

REDS

KINS

SAIN

TS

RAID

ERS

LION

S

BROW

NS

1

2

3

Since 1994 the Packers have drafted 22 Pro Bowlers, despite averaging the

second-lowest first-round slot in the NFL. Their knack for finding contributors in the later rounds, most notably sixth-rounder Matt Hasselbeck (+95.2 Surplus AV) and seventh-rounder Donald Driver (+88.3), is a big reason they’ve won the second-most games of any team over this span.

The Rams picks have accumulated the seventh-highest Career AV since 1994.

So why is the team's ranking so mediocre? The Rams have also had the league’s most valuable collection of picks, with an average first-round selection between No. 13 and 14 overall.

Thanks to their penchant for trading picks in exchange for overvalued—and often

unproductive—veterans, the Redskins have made the second-fewest picks per draft (6.8), and their Expected AV per year is the lowest in the NFL over this span (102.5).

+45.

7

+45.

3

+42.

2

+39.

9

+28.

6

+21.

2

+20.

8

+18.

6

+17.

6

+16.

6

+15.

2

+14.

7

+14.

1

+13.

6

+12.

1

+11.

3

+10.

6

+10.

4

+10.

2

+9.2

+8.1

+2.6

+2.2

+1.3

+0.8

+0.4

-0.3

-4.4

-7.0

-9.7

-23.

9

-28.

3

1

2

3

From left: Ronde Barber, Jason Taylor and Matt Hasselbeck.

BEST

WORST

NO. 3BROOKS+152.4

NO. 5OWENS+143.9

NO. 1LEWIS+183.3

NO. 2BRADY+170.1

To determine each franchise’s best picks since 1994, we once again turn to Surplus AV: the difference between what a player has actually produced in his NFL career and what he was expected to produce based on his draft slot. Naturally, some of the most valuable picks are those who come later in the draft, since much less was expected of them.

THE BEST PICKS ARE …

0

+100

+200

+300

SUR

PLU

S AV

NO. 4MANNING

+146.4

FR

OM

LE

FT: P

AU

L S

PIN

EL

LI/A

P IM

AG

ES

; TOM

DIP

AC

E (4

)

49ER

S

BEAR

S

BENG

ALS

BILL

S

BRON

COS

BROW

NS

BUCC

ANEE

RS

CARD

INAL

S

CHAR

GERS

CHIE

FS

COLT

S

COW

BOYS

DOLP

HINS

EAGL

ES

FALC

ONS

GIAN

TS

JAGU

ARS

JETS

LION

S

PACK

ERS

PANT

HERS

PATR

IOTS

RAID

ERS

RAM

S

RAVE

NS

REDS

KINS

SAIN

TS

SEAH

AWKS

STEE

LERS

TEXA

NS

OILE

RS/T

ITAN

S

VIKI

NGS

From 1995 to 1997, the Bucs and Dolphins made four of

the 10 best picks of the past 19 years. Among the

group—Tampa Bay’s Derrick Brooks (third-best pick, +152.4 Surplus AV) and

Ronde Barber (No. 8, +132.3), and Miami’s Thomas

(No. 6, +137.2) and Jason Taylor (No. 7, +133.9)—only Brooks was selected before

the third round.

The backbone of the Ravens’ No. 4 overall ranking is the

recently retired Lewis, whose +183.3 Surplus AV is the

highest of any player since 1994. For now. Patriots

sixth-round gem Tom Brady (+170.1) needs only one

more good season to beat his perpetual rival a final time.

TERR

ELL

OWEN

S

+14

3.9

BRIA

N U

RLAC

HER

+98.

8

CHAD

JOH

NSO

N

+71

.8

ERIC

MOU

LDS

+

51.1

TOM

NAL

EN

+

105.

4

AND

RA D

AVIS

+40.

3

DER

RICK

BRO

OKS

+

152.

4

ANQU

AN B

OLD

IN

+62

.3

DRE

W B

REES

+

125.

0

TON

Y GO

NZA

LEZ

+1

22.8

PEYT

ON M

ANN

ING

+1

46.4

LARR

Y AL

LEN

+

81.9

ZACH

TH

OMAS

+13

7.2

BRIA

N D

AWKI

NS

+1

13.2

TOD

D M

CCLU

RE

+7

2.9

TIKI

BAR

BER

+8

5.2

MAU

RICE

JON

ES-D

REW

+59

.4

JAM

ES F

ARRI

OR

+73

.4

JOH

NN

IE M

ORTO

N +

45.0

MAT

T H

ASSE

LBEC

K

+

95.2

STEV

E SM

ITH

+

89.5

TOM

BRA

DY

+

170.

1

LA'R

OI G

LOVE

R

+1

00.3

ISAA

C BR

UCE

+101

.9

RAY

LEW

IS

+

183.

3

CHAM

P BA

ILEY

+94

.3

JAH

RI E

VAN

S

+7

5.8

KEVI

N M

AWAE

+91.

2

HIN

ES W

ARD

+

97.4

OWEN

DAN

IELS

+38

.7

DER

RICK

MAS

ON

+

95.3

RAN

DY M

OSS

+11

8.8

12

2

3

Three of our six best picks ever—Ray Lewis, Zach

Thomas and Terrell Owens—came in the 1996 draft. So

did Marvin Harrison (+117.5 Surplus AV), Brian Dawkins (+113.2) and La’Roi Glover (+100.3), making the class

of 1996 the best overall draft we charted.

1 2 3

NO. 4ROGERS

-67.1

NO. 6WADSWORTH

-59.9

NO. 1LEAF-76.0

NO. 2CARTER

-75.0

NO. 5 SHULER

-65.4

THE WORST PICKS ARE …49

ERS

BEAR

S

BENG

ALS

BILL

S

BRON

COS

BROW

NS

BUCC

ANEE

RS

CARD

INAL

S

CHAR

GERS

CHIE

FS

COLT

S

COW

BOYS

DOLP

HINS

EAGL

ES

FALC

ONS

GIAN

TS

JAGU

ARS

JETS

LION

S

PACK

ERS

PANT

HERS

PATR

IOTS

RAID

ERS

RAM

S

RAVE

NS

REDS

KINS

SAIN

TS

SEAH

AWKS

STEE

LERS

TEXA

NS

OILE

RS/T

ITAN

S

VIKI

NGS0

-100

-200

-300

SUR

PLU

S AV

R

EGGI

E M

CGRE

W -

39.0

CU

RTIS

EN

IS -

54.1

K

I-JA

NA

CART

ER -

75.0

MIK

E D.

WIL

LIAM

S -4

0.1

MAR

CUS

NAS

H -

35.7

T

IM C

OUCH

-56

.3

GAIN

ES A

DAM

S -2

5.4

AN

DRE

WAD

SWOR

TH -

59.9

R

YAN

LEA

F -7

6.0

SYL

VEST

ER M

ORRI

S -3

5.6

TREV

ALB

ERTS

-59

.7

D

WAY

NE

GOOD

RICH

-27

.9

YA

TIL

GREE

N -

45.1

BER

NAR

D W

ILLI

AMS

-41.

1

MIC

HAE

L BO

OKER

-42

.8

CED

RIC

JON

ES -

42.7

R. J

AY S

OWAR

D -

34.7

ALE

X VA

N D

YKE

-35.

1

C

HAR

LES

ROGE

RS -

67.1

JAM

AL R

EYN

OLD

S -5

0.3

J

ASON

PET

ER -

38.3

KEVI

N L

EE -

33.2

JAM

ARCU

S RU

SSEL

L -4

9.7

LAW

REN

CE P

HIL

LIPS

-49

.9

DAN

COD

Y -2

3.0

HEA

TH S

HU

LER

-65.

4

J

OHN

ATH

AN S

ULL

IVAN

-46

.0

CHRI

S McI

NTO

SH -

33.9

J

AMAI

N S

TEPH

ENS

-30.

1

DAV

ID C

ARR

-36.

0

BR

YAN

T M

IX -

32.0

T

ROY

WIL

LIAM

SON

-39

.4

2

1

1

3

Yes, it’s possible to have a negative Surplus AV. That’s what happens when the cost outweighs the return—when a player’s on-field play comes up short compared with what was expected of him based on his draft slot. Think first-rounder-turned-benchwarmer- turned-insurance-salesman. Here are each team’s worst draft-day mistakes since 1994. F

RO

M L

EF

T: TOM

DIP

AC

E; G

. NE

WM

AN

LOW

RA

NC

E/A

P IM

AG

ES

; GR

EG

TRO

TT/AP

IMA

GE

S; JA

ME

S D

. SM

ITH/U

SA

TOD

AY S

PO

RTS

; MA

RK

WILS

ON

/AP

IMA

GE

S

Wondering why the Bengals and Browns have postseason

win droughts that stretch back to 1990 and 1994,

respectively? Well, together those franchises compiled four of the 10 worst picks since 1994—Cincinnati’s Ki-Jana Carter (second-

worst pick, -75.0 Surplus AV) and Akili Smith (No. 3, -70.6),

and Cleveland’s Tim Couch (No. 8, -56.3) and Courtney

Brown (No. 9, -56.1).

1

Leaf, the Chargers’ much-ballyhooed No. 2

overall pick out of Washington State in 1998,

had an Expected AV of 78.0. After three seasons, 21

starts and an ungraceful exit from the league, his Career AV was just 2. For

perspective: Mark Sanchez, butt fumble and all, had an

AV of 5 in 2012 alone.

2

Not even Rams Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (+87.5

Surplus AV) could take the stench off the 1994 draft, our worst. The Redskins’

Heath Shuler (-65.4 Surplus AV) and the Colts’ Trev

Alberts (-59.7), the Nos. 3 and 5 overall picks in ’94, are

two of the seven worst selections we charted.

3