beta ams methodology

8/2/2019 Beta AMS Methodology

1/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn Ec`ctbgEkfgkf Mcksncbfnb Cffkvotckf Nbftrb= ]kyoe Nkeeblb ^trbbtEkfgkf F\?4FARfctbg Icflgk`Wbe8 (77) =4< :?< 24Bòce8 eomDrogcknormkf.nk`

Mbto Ofoeytcn Cfn. (Abogquortbrs)7312 ^\ >?22RÔWbe8 (?) >42-::42-::>-43:7Bòce8 eomDrogcknormkf.nk`

Cftrkguntckf tk ]ogcknormkf Gbtbr`cfotckf my tabOnnbebrotkr @oss ^pbntrk`btry @btakg

O@^ Nkuftcfl

Wabrb orb tarbb prcfncpoe csktkpbs kj normkf wacna knnur foturoeey -?=

N,?>

N (mktastomeb) ofg ?7N (ufstomeb kr rogckontcvb). Wabsb csktkpbs orb prbsbft cf tabjkeekwcfl o`kufts ?=N - 31.13%, ?>N - ?.??%, ofg ?7N - 4.444444444?4%. Waus,kfb normkf-?7 otk` bxcsts cf foturb jkr bvbry ?,444,444,444,444 kr (? cf o

trceeckf) normkf-?= otk`s cf ecvcfl òtbrcoe. Wab rogcknormkf `btakg cs mosbg kftab rotb kj gbnoy kj tab rogckontcvb kr ufstomeb normkf csktkpb ?7 ( ?7N), wacna csjkr`bg cf tab uppbr ot`kspabrb tarkula tab bjjbnt kj nks`cn roy fbutrkfs upkffctrklbf-?7.

Wab rbontckf cs8

?7F + f 06 ?7N + p

(\abrb f cs o fbutrkf ofg p cs o prktkf)

Wab ?7N jkr`bg cs ropcgey kxcgczbg tk ?7NK= ofg bftbrs tab borta's peoft ofgofcòe ecjb woys tarkula paktksyftabscs ofg tab jkkg naocf. Wab ropcgcty kj tabgcspbrsoe kj ?7N cftk tab ot`kspabrb aos mbbf gb`kfstrotbg my `bosurb`bftskj rogckontcvb normkf prkgunbg jrk` tabr`kfunebor mk`m tbstcfl. ?7N oesk bftbrstab borta's knbofs cf of ot`kspabrcn bxnaoflb ofg os gcsskevbg normkfotb Ytabbftcrb ?7N cfvbftkry cs tbr`bg tab normkf bxnaoflb rbsbrvkcr (Octibf, ?334)P.Teofts ofg ofcòes wacna utceczb normkf cf mckeklcnoe jkkg naocfs toib up ?7Ngurcfl tabcr ecjbtc`bs. Waby bxcst cf bqucecmrcu` wcta tab ?7N nkfnbftrotckf kj tabot`kspabrb9 taot cs, tab fu`mbr kj ?7N otk`s ofg fkf-rogckontcvb normkf otk`sstoys opprkxcòtbey tab so`b kvbr tc`b. Os skkf os o peoft kr ofcòe gcbs, tabynbosb tab `btomkecn jufntckf kj normkf uptoib9 tabrb cs fk rbpebfcsa`bft kjrogckontcvb normkf, kfey gbnoy.

Ecmmy, Ofgbrskf ofg Orfkeg (?373) wbrb tab jcrst tk `bosurb tab rotb kj tacsgbnoy. Waby jkufg taot ojtbr 22:1 ybors, aoej tab ?7N cf tab krclcfoe so`peb wceeaovb gbnoybg ofg ojtbr ofktabr 22:1 ybors, aoej kj taot rbòcfcfl òtbrcoe wceeaovb gbnoybg, ofg sk kf (sbb jclurb ? mbekw). Wab aoej-ecjb ( t ?/=) cs tab fo`blcvbf tk tacs voeub wacna Ecmmy `bosurbg ot 22:1>4 ybors. Wacs mbno`b ifkwfos tab Ecmmy aoej-ecjb. Ojtbr ?4 aoej-ecvbs, tabrb cs o vbry sòee o`kuft kj


2/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

=

rogckontcvb normkf prbsbft cf o so`peb. Ot omkut 24,444-:4 444 ybors, tabf, tabec`ct kj tab tbnafcqub cs rbonabg (mbykfg tacs tc`b, ktabr rogck`btrcn tbnafcqubsùst mb usbg jkr gotcfl). My `bosurcfl tab ?7N nkfnbftrotckf kr rbscguoerogckontcvcty kj o so`peb waksb olb cs fkt ifkwf, ct cs pksscmeb tk kmtocf tabnkuft rotb kr fu`mbr kj gbnoy bvbfts pbr lro` kj Normkf. My nk`porcfl tacs

wcta `kgbrf ebvbes kj ontcvcty (?134 wkkg nkrrbntbg jkr gbnoy tk ?324 OG) ofguscfl tab `bosurbg aoej-ecjb, ct mbnk`bs pksscmeb tk noenueotb o gotb jkr tab gbotakj tab so`peb.

Os ?7N gbnoys ct b`cts o wboi mbto portcneb (m), kr bebntrkf, wacna pkssbssbs ofovbrolb bfbrly kj ?:4ibZ. Wab gbnoy nof mb sakwf8

?7N 06 ?7F + m

Waus, tab ?7N gbnoys moni tk ?7F. Wabrb cs o quoftctotcvb rbeotckfsacp mbtwbbftab gbnoy kj ?7N ofg tab prkguntckf kj o mbto portcneb. Wab gbnoy cs nkfstoft mut

spkftofbkus. Waot cs, tab prkmomcecty kj gbnoy jkr of otk` kj

?7

N cf o gcsnrbtbso`peb cs nkfstoft, tabrbmy rbqucrcfl tab oppecnotckf kj stotcstcnoe `btakgs jkr tabofoeyscs kj nkuftcfl goto.

Ct jkeekws jrk` tacs taot ofy òtbrcoe wacna cs nk`pksbg kj normkf òy mb gotbg.Abrbcf ecbs tab trub ogvoftolb kj tab rogcknormkf `btakg ct cs omeb tk mbufcjkrèy oppecbg tarkulakut tab wkreg kf ofy òtbrcoe taot nkftocfs rbscguoenormkf.

Mbnousb kj tacs, eomkrotkrcbs jrk` orkufg tab wkreg orb prkguncfl rogcknormkfossoys jkr tab sncbftcjcn nk`ùfcty. Wab ?7N tbnafcqub aos mbbf ofg nkftcfubstk mb oppecbg ofg usbg cf òfy gcjjbrbft jcbegs cfneugcfl aygrkekly, ot`kspabrcnsncbfnb, knbofklropay, lbkekly, poeobknecòtkekly, ornaobkekly, mck`bgcncfbofg òtbrcoes sncbfnb.

Wab Onnbebrotkr @oss ^pbntrk`btry `btakg kj gcrbnt?7

N csktkpb nkuftcfl wosjcrst pbrjkr`bg cf ?3


3/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

>

cfnrbosbg roflb kj so`peb typbs ofg sczbs nof fkw mb `bosurbg taot prbvckuseylos-prkpkrtckfoe kr E^N nkuftcfl tbnafcqubs nkueg fkt.

Cf tab?7

N O@^ tbnafcqub, tab beb`bft kj cftbrbst (so`peb normkf) cs nab`cnoeeysbporotbg jrk` tab krclcfoe so`peb, nkfvbrtbg tk lropactb, prbssbg cftk o

notakgb (so`peb torlbt akegbr) wabrb ct jkr`s o skecg lropactb peul kr eoybr, ofgcs tabf peonbg cftk o sputtbr ckf skurnb kj of onnbebrotkr.

Wacs `btakgkekly kutecfbs tab lbfbroe lropactb so`peb prbporotckf (nab`cstry)ofg O@^ nkuftcfl prknbgurbs ot Mbto Ofoeytcn Cfn. jkr krlofcn ofg normkfotbso`pebs. Warkula tacs prknbss, tab NK= prkgunbg jrk` normkfonbkus rowòtbrcoes cs nryklbfcnoeey purcjcbg (sbporotbg jrk` fkf-nk`mustcmeb losbs) ofgrbgunbg tk skecg lropactb jkr `bosurb`bft cf of O@^.

Nkfvbrsckf kj ô`peb Normkf tk Lropactb

ô`peb Trbtrbot`bft

Bona so`peb ùst jcrst mb prbtrbotbg kr tab òtbrcoe kj cftbrbst cskeotbg tk bfsurbtaot kfey tab prcòry normkf kj cftbrbst wcee mb ofoeyzbg. Os òfy gcjjbrbft typbskj normkf-nkftocfcfl nk`pkufgs orb prbsbft, gcjjbrbft prbtrbot`bft rblc`bsaovb mbbf gbvbekpbg tk nkfnbftrotb ofg cskeotb tab portcnueor normkf jrontckf kjcftbrbst prckr tk gotcfl (^bb Trbtrbot`bft Lekssory ^tofgorg Trbtrbot`bftTrktknkes ot Mbto Ofoeytcn).

NK=Lbfbrotckf

Wab prbtrbotbg so`peb normkf cs jcrst kxcgczbg tk NK=bctabr my nk`mustckf cf ofKxylbf strbo` kr tarkula gcrbnt rbontckf wcta rbgunbg Nuprcn Kxcgb (`btoe wcrb /pkwgbr) jkr krlofcns kr tarkula oncg aygrkeyscs jkr normkfotbs.

Nk`mustckf K] Oncg Aygrkeyscs

Krlofcn + K= + A 06 NK= Normkfotb + A>TK7 06 NK=

(ô`peb) (344N) (ô`peb)

Krlofcn + NuK + A 06 NK=

(ô`peb) (344N)

Wab NK=lbfbrotbg cs tabf nryklbfcnoeey purcjcbg my rb`kvcfl wotbr vopkr ofgofy fkf-nk`mustcmeb/nkfgbfsomeb losbs my posscfl tarkula o sbrcbs kj gry-cnb /@btaofke wotbr trops (~ -


4/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

7

Nkfvbrsckf kj NK=tk Lropactb (Lropactczotckf rbontckf)

Wk prkgunb tab s`oee o`kufts kj beb`bftoe normkf jrk` NK=jkr `bosurb`bft cfof O@^, wb usb tab Mksna rbontckf (@offcfl ofg ]bcg, ?3


5/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

2

taot cs >x lrbotbr cf wbclat taof tab o`kuft kj normkf (>8? rotck), tabf of oecquktkj Retro-Turb ]bsborna Lrogb Aygrklbf cs oggbg suna taot tab o`kuft kjAygrklbf cs >x lrbotbr cf vkeu`b os tab so`peb NK=(>8? rotck). Wablropactczotckf nbee cs tabf peonbg cftk o 224N tk :24N kvbf jkr o pbrckg kj ?4-?=akurs waceb tab wotbr prkgunbg gurcfl tab lropactczotckf cs nkftcfukusey

rb`kvbg, vco o nkeg jcflbr taot cs port kj tab lropactczotckf nbee, my o gry-cnb@btaofke seusa (- ofg N?7/?= gbtbntckf.

O@^ Nkuftcfl

Os cs nk``kf wcta ktabr icfgs kj `oss spbntrk`btry, O@^ nkuftcfl cs pbrjkr bgmy nkfvbrtcfl tab otk`s cf tab so`peb (lropactb) cftk o mbo` kj jost `kvcfl ckfs


6/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

:

(naorlbg otk`s). Wab òss kj tabsb ckfs cs tabf sbporotbg my tab oppecnotckf kjòlfbtcn ofg bebntrcn jcbegs ofg `bosurbg my funebor portcneb gbtbntckftbnafcqubs. Wab `bosurb`bft kj rogcknormkf my òss spbntrk`btry cs vbrygcjjcnuet mbnousb cts nkfnbftrotckf cs ebss taof kfb otk` cf ?,444,444,444,444(kfb-trceeckf) otk`s. Waus tab onnbebrotkr cs usbg tk abep rb`kvb ckfs taot `clat

mb nkfjusbg wcta rogcknormkf mbjkrb tab jcfoe gbtbntckf.

Wab so`peb cs put cftk tab ckf skurnb (os lropactb) ofg cs ckfczbg my mk`morgcflct wcta Nbscu` ckfs ofg tabf jknusbg cftk o jost-`kvcfl mbo`. Wab ckfs

prkgunbg orb fblotcvb wacna prbvbfts tab nkfjusckf kj?7

N wcta?7

F scfnbfctrklbf gkbs fkt jkr` o fblotcvb ckf. Wab jcrst mbfgcfl òlfbt cs usbg cf tabso`b woy os tab òlfbt cf of krgcfory òss spbntrk`btbr tk sbebnt ckfs kj

òss ?7 (tacs wcee cfneugb eorlb fu`mbr kj?=

NA=-

ofg?>

NA-

ckfs ofg o vbry jbw?7

N-

ckfs). Wab ckfs tabf bftbr tab onnbebrotkr. Os taby trovbe tk tab tbr`cfoegbtbntkr taby orb onnbebrotbg sujjcncbftey suna taot wabf taby nkeecgb wcta tab los

`kebnuebs cf tab strcppbr, oee kj tab `kebnueor ckfs (suna os

?=

NA= ofg

?>

NA) orb

mrkibf up oeekwcfl `kst kj tab Normkf ckfs tk poss tarkula tk o sbnkfg mbfgcflòlfbt wacna jurtabr sbporotbs tab ckfs wcta tab òss ofg `k`bftu` bxpbntbg

kj?7

N,?>

N, ofg?=

N.

Jcfoeey tab jcetbrbg?7

N ckfs bftbr tab gbtbntkr wabrb tabcr vbekncty ofg bfbrly orb

nabnibg sk taot tab fu`mbr kj?7

N ckfs cf tab so`peb nof mb nkuftbg. Fkt oee kjtab rogcknormkf otk`s put cftk tab ckf skurnb bfg up rbonacfl tab gbtbntkr ofg

sk tab stomeb csktkpbs,?=

N ofg?>

N orb `bosurbg os wbee cf krgbr tk `kfctkr tab

gbtbntckf bjjcncbfny. Jkr bona so`peb, o rotck kj?7

N/?>

N cs noenueotbg ofgnk`porbg tk `bosurb`bfts ògb kf stofgorgs wcta ifkwf rotcks.

Rfnbrtocftcbs cf O@^

^kkf ojtbr tab jcrst O@^ spbntrk`btbrs wbrb gbvbekpbg, tab quoecty kj O@^`bosurb`bfts wos gb`kfstrotbg tarkula nk`porcskfs kj tab brrkr cf tab `bofkj o sbrcbs kj f O@^ `bosurb`bfts jkr o so`peb (bxtbrfoe brrkr) tk tab nkuftcflstotcstcns kj tab `bosurbg tktoe nkufts, F, cf taot sbrcbs kj `bosurb`bfts(cftbrfoe brrkr). Cj cs tab `bof kj o lrkup kj cfgcvcguoe `bosurb`bfts, bona wctavorcofnb = (abrb ossu`bg bqucvoebft jkr oee `bosurb`bfts), tab jrontckfoe

prbncsckfs wbrb sakwf tk mb bqucvoebft8

=

bxt0

=

/ f (f ?)=

0 =

cft 0 ?/ Ftktoe

Cfgbbg, bqucvoebfnb kj tab stofgorg brrkr cf tab `bof kj O@^ `bosurb`bfts tktab prbncsckf bxpbntbg jrk` nkuftcfl stotcstcns gb`kfstrotbg tab gblrbb tk wacna


7/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

9 Gkfoaub, Huee, & Xombe, ?3179 Jorwbee, bt oe., ?3179 ûtbr, bt oe., ?317).

Wab gbvbekp`bft kj o ufcjkr` so`peb òtbrcoe jkr?7

N O@^, jceo`bftkus krjueebrbfb lropactb (Zklbe bt oe, ?317), prkvcgbg cftbfsb ckf mbo`s jkr oee so`pebs

ofg stofgorgs, mrcflcfl tab cftbrfoe ofg bxtbrfoe ufnbrtocftcbs cftk rkutcfbbqucvoebfnb jkr prbncsb (?%) O@^ quoftcjcnotckf. (Mkfofc, bt oe., ?31N ofg ?=N ofg tabcrrotck. Wacs cs pbrjkr`bg my bxtrontcfl o sòee o`kuft kj tab NK=lbfbrotbg gurcfltab nk`mustckf kr oncg aygrkeyscs ofg `bosurcfl tab ?>/?=N rotck rbeotcvb tk tabTGM òss-spbntrk`btry stofgorg. Wacs rotck cs eotbr usbg cf tab noenueotckf kj tab

rogcknormkf olb ofg brrkr tk nkrrbnt jkr csktkpcn jrontckfotckf cf foturb.

Jrontckfotckf gurcfl tab lbknab`cnoe trofsjbr kj normkf cf foturb prkgunbsvorcotckf cf tab bqucecmrcu` gcstrcmutckf kj tab csktkpbs kj normkf (?=N, ?>N ofg?7N). Nrocl (?32>) jcrst cgbftcjcbg taot nbrtocf mcknab`cnoe prknbssbs oetbr tabbqucecmrcu` mbtwbbf tab normkf csktkpbs. ^k`b prknbssbs, suna ospaktksyftabscs jkr cfstofnb, jovkrs kfb csktkpb kvbr ofktabr, sk ojtbrpaktksyftabscs, tab csktkpb ?>N cs gbpebtbg my ?.1% cf nk`porcskf tk cts foturoerotcks cf tab ot`kspabrb (Aorifbss, ?3N/?=N rotck. Cj csktkpcnjrontckfotckf knnurs cf foturoe prknbssbs, o nkrrbntckf nof mb ògb my`bosurcfl tab rotck kj tab csktkpb

?>N tk tab csktkpb

?=N cf tab so`peb mbcfl

gotbg. Wab rotck cs `bosurbg uscfl of krgcfory òss spbntrk`btbr. Wab csktkpcnnk`pksctckf kj tab so`peb mbcfl `bosurbg cs bxprbssbg os gbeto?>N wacnarbprbsbfts tab ports pbr takusofg gcjjbrbfnb (pbr `ceeb) mbtwbbf tab so`pebnormkf-?> nkftbft ofg tab nkftbft kj tab cftbrfotckfoe TGM stofgorg normkfotb(Ibcta bt oe., ?3:79 Octibf, ?334). O g?>N voeub, tabf, rbprbsbfts tab pbr `ceeb(port pbr takusofg) gbvcotckf jrk` tab TGM stofgorg. TGM rbjbrs tk tabNrbtonbkus mbeb`fctb jkròtckf ot Tbbgbb cf ^kuta Norkecfo, RÔ. Wacsfk`bfneoturb aos rbnbftey mbbf naoflbg tk ZTGM (Nkpebf, ?337).

Cf su`òry, csktkpcn jrontckfotckf rbjbrs tk tab jeuntuotckf cf tab normkf csktkpbrotcks os o rbsuet kj foturoe mcknab`cnoe prknbssbs os o jufntckf kj tabcr otk`cnòss (Woyekr, ?31


8/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

1

"fkròeczbg", `bofcfl tab `bosurbg ontcvcty cs `kgcjcbg wcta rbspbnt tk -=2 pbr`ceeb wrt ZTMG. Wab nkrrbntckf jontkr ùst mb oggbg kr sumtrontbg jrk` tabnkfvbftckfoe rogcknormkf olb.

Wab gbetoN?> voeub jkr o so`peb nof ycbeg c`pkrtoft cfjkròtckf rblorgcfl tab

bfvcrkf`bft jrk` wacna tab so`peb nk`bs kr tab `cxturbs kj òtbrcoes usbg tkprkgunb ct mbnousb tab csktkpb voeub kj tab so`peb rbjebnts tab csktkpcnnk`pksctckf kj tab c``bgcotb bfvcrkf`bft. Cf tab nosb kj sabeejcsa, jkr bxo`peb,òrcfb sabees typcnoeey pkssbss o gN?> voeub kj mbtwbbf -? ofg +7 pbr `ceeb,wabrbos rcvbr sabees pkssbss o voeub kj mbtwbbf -1 ofg -?= pbr `ceeb. Wabrbjkrb,cf o nosb wabrb tab prbncsb bfvcrkf`bft kj tab sabee cs fkt ifkwf, ct cs pksscmebtk gbtbr`cfb tab `kst ecibey my ofoeyscs kj tab gN?> rbsuet.

Jrontckfotckf oesk gbsnrcmbs vorcotckfs cf tab csktkpcn rotcks kj normkf mrkulatomkut my fkf-foturoe nousbs. Jkr bxo`peb, so`pebs òy mb jrontckfotbg cf tabeomkrotkry tarkula o vorcbty kj `bofs. Rsuoeey, tacs cs gub tk eoni kj ottbftckf tk

gbtoce ofg cfnk`pebtb nkfvbrsckf kj tab so`peb jrk` kfb stolb tk ofktabr krjrk` kfb port kj tab eomkrotkry tk ofktabr. Cf Ecqucg ^ncftceeotckf Nkuftcfl, jkrbxo`peb, cfnk`pebtb syftabscs kj onbtyebfb gurcfl ectacu` normcgb prbporotckfòy rbsuet cf o ekw ycbeg ofg nkfnurrbft jrontckfotckf. ^c`ceorey, tab trofsjbr kjlosbs cf o vonuu` systb` òy cfvkevb jrontckfotckf brrkr cj tab so`peb los cs fktoeekwbg tk bqucecmrotb tarkulakut tab tktoe vkeu`b. Otk`s kj eorlbr kr sòeebròss òy mb jovkrbg cf suna o sctuotckf. Cj, akwbvbr, tab bftcrb so`peb csnkfvbrtbg nk`pebtbey jrk` kfb jkr` tk ofktabr (b.l. skecg tk los, onbtyebfb tkmbfzbfb) tabf fk jrontckfotckf wcee knnur.

]ogcknormkf Olb ofg Brrkr Noenueotckf

@una kj tab cfjkròtckf prbsbftbg cf tacs sbntckf cs mosbg upkf tab popbr^tucvbr, @. ofg Tkeona, A.O. ?3.

Wab rogcknormkf olb kj o so`peb cs kmtocfbg my `bosurb`bft kj tab rbscguoerogckontcvcty. Wacs cs noenueotbg tarkula norbjue `bosurb`bft kj tab rbscguoeontcvcty (pbr lro` N) rbòcfcfl cf o so`peb waksb olb cs ufifkwf, nk`porbgwcta tab ontcvcty prbsbft cf @kgbrf ofg Monilrkufg so`pebs.

@kgbrf ^tofgorg

Wab prcfncpoe `kgbrf rogcknormkf stofgorg cs F.C.^.W (Fotckfoe Cfstctutb kj^tofgorgs ofg Wbnafkekly9 Loctabrsmurl, @oryeofg, RÔ) Kxoecn Oncg C(N=A=K7). Kxoecn oncg C cs F.C.^.W gbsclfotckf ^]@ 7334 M ofg cs tbr`bg AKx?.Wacs cs tab Cftbrfotckfoe ]ogcknormkf Gotcfl ^tofgorg. Fcfbty-jcvb pbrnbft kj tabontcvcty kj Kxoecn Oncg jrk` tab ybor ?324 cs bquoe tk tab `bosurbg ontcvcty kj tabomskeutb rogcknormkf stofgorg wacna cs ?134 wkkg. Wab ?134 wkkg wos naksbf


9/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

3

os tab rogcknormkf stofgorg mbnousb ct wos lrkwcfl prckr tk tab jkssce jube bjjbntskj tab cfgustrcoe rbvkeutckf.

Wab ontcvcty kj ?134 wkkg cs nkrrbntbg jkr rogckontcvb gbnoy tk ?324. Waus ?324,cs ybor 4 MT my nkfvbftckf cf rogcknormkf gotcfl ofg cs gbb`bg tk mb tab

'prbsbft'. Wab ybor ?324 wos naksbf jkr fk portcnueor rboskf ktabr taof tk akfkrtab pumecnotckf kj tab jcrst rogcknormkf gotbs noenueotbg cf Gbnb`mbr ?373(Woyekr, ?31). Wab Kxoecn oncg stofgorg wacna wosgbvbekpbg cs fk ekflbr nk``brncoeey ovoceomeb. Ofktabr stofgorg, Kxoecn Oncg CCwos prbporbg wabf stknis kj AKx ? mblof tk gwcfgeb. Wab Kxoecn oncg CCstofgorg (AKx =9 F.C.^.W gbsclfotckf ^]@ 7334 N) wos `ogb jrk` o nrkp kj?3>4.44? (tab wbclatbg `bof) (@off, ?31>). Wab csktkpcn rotck kjAKx CC cs -?


10/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

?4

stofgorg. Wab Nkfvbftckfoe ]ogcknormkf Olb MT cs noenueotbg uscfl tabrogcknormkf gbnoy bquotckf8

t 0 -14>> ef (Osf/Okf)

\abrb -14>> rbprbsbfts tab `bof ecjbtc`b kj

?7

N (^tucvbr ofg Tkeona, ?3N cf tab normkfotb stofgorgZTGM (`krb kf jrontckfotckf ofg gbetoN?>)9

tab usb kj ?324 OG os 4 MT, cb oee

?7

N olbs abog moni cf tc`b jrk` ?3249 tab ossu`ptckf taot oee ?7N rbsbrvkcrs aovb rbòcfbg nkfstoft tarkula tc`b.

Oggctckfoe tbr`s orb sk`btc`bs rbqubstbg tk mb kr rbpkrtbg wcta, kr cf ecbu kj tabstofgorg Nkfvbftckfoe ]ogcknormkf Olb MT rbsuet jrk` wacna oee ktabrs orbòtabòtcnoeey gbrcvbg. Wabsb orb tab @bosurbg ]ogcknormkf Olb MT, Tbrnbft@kgbrf Normkf (p@N), @bof Mckmosbg ]bsuet (bxprbssbg cf %), Tbrnbft @bofMcklbfcn Normkf Nkftbft, Tbrnbft Mckòss NK=, Jrontckf @kgbrf Normkf (j`gfkr j@N) os wbee os g?7N, G?7N, gbeto ?7N, ?7N ofg gbeto ?>/?=N (oee kj wacnaorb bxprbssbg cf pbr `ceeb fktotckf (%) rotabr taof pbr nbft fktotckf.)

g?7N rbprbsbfts tab pbr `ceeb gbpebtckf cf so`peb normkf ?7 prckr tk csktkpcnjrontckfotckf nkrrbntckf ofg cs `bosurbg my9

g?7N0((Osf/Okf) - ?)?444 pbr `ceeb

G?7N rbprbsbfts tab 'fkròeczbg' voeub kj g?7N. 'Fkròeczbg' `bofs taot tabontcvcty cs snoebg cf rbeotckf tk jrontckfotckf kj tab so`peb, kr cts gbetoN?> voeub.

Oee G?7N voeubs orb fkròeczbg tk tab mosb voeub kj - =2.4 pbr `ceeb wcta rbspbnttk tab stofgorg normkfotb (ZTGM). G?7N cs noenueotbg uscfl8

G?7N0g?7N - =(gN?> + =2)(? + g?7N/?444) pbr `ceeb

Wacs voeub nof tabf mb usbg tk noenueotb tab N]O uscfl tab bquotckf lcvbfomkvb.


11/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

??

Jclurb ? - Gbnoy nurvb jkr

?=N sakwcfl tab ontcvcty ot kfb aoej-ecjb (t/=). Wab tbr`s "%@kgbrf" kr

"p@N" ofg G?7N orb sakwf rbeotbg cf tacs gcolro` oekfl wcta tab ]ogcknormkf olb cf ybors MT(Mbjkrb ?324 OG).

Olb rbpkrt cfl

Cj tab rbsbrvkcr nkrrbntbg nkfvbftckfoe rogcknormkf olb noenueotbg cs wctacf tab

post =44 ybors, ct sakueg my nkfvbftckf mb tbr`bg '@kgbrf' (^tucvbr ofg Tkeona,?3


12/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

?=

tab cfjeux kj ortcjcncoe rogcknormkf cftk tab ot`kspabrb os o rbsuet kj funebor mk`mtbstcfl, tab 'olb' noenueotckf mbnk`bs o 'juturb' noenueotckf.

Cj tab so`peb opprkonabs G?7N 0 -?444 pbr `ceeb wctacf = stofgorg gbvcotckfs, ctcs nkfscgbrbg tk mb cfgcstcflucsaomeb jrk` tab eomkrotkry monilrkufg, c.b., fkt

omeb tk mb sbporotbg wcta nkfjcgbfnb jrk` tab eomkrotkry nkuft-rotbs wacna rbsuetjrk` o so`peb wacna nkftocfs fk rogckfunecgb. Cf tacs cfstofnb, o Lrbotbr-WaofOlb cs noenueotbg. Of bxo`peb kj o Lrbotbr-Waof Olb cs 622, 444 yr kr 624, 444yr (Lupto ofg Tkeona, ?312).

^o`pebs waksb olb joees mbtwbbf `kgbrf ofg monilrkufg ofg orb lcvbf jcfctbolbs. ^tofgorg brrkrs rbebosbg wcta bona rogcknormkf ossoy orb usuoeey rkufgbgmy nkfvbftckf (^tucvbr ofg Tkeona, ?3


13/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

?>

724 yr jkr sabee. uscfl @oss ^pbn.

n. ?7N @kgbrf stofgorg Zorcomeb 6 14 yrCftbrfotckfoe nrkssnabnikj sbnkfgory stofgorgs.

g. Zorcotckf cf post ?7N

prkguntckf rotbs

4-144 yr, mbykfgno?= io fktgbtbr`cfbg

Wrbb rcfl noecmrotckf9ktabrwcsb cftbrprbt

rbsuets cf rogck`btrcntc`bsnoeb.

b. Gcstrcmutckf kj ?7N cf foturb

ûrjonb knbofeotctugcfoegbpbfgbfnb -744 tk -. Nkfto`cfotckf

Fce tk >44 yr uptk ?2 io9 6=4 iopksscmeb mbykfg=2 io.

Cftbrprbtotckf kj rbsuets,ofoeyscs ofg gotcfl kjbxtrontbg prbtrbotbgjrontckfs.

7. Mckeklcnoe olb kj òtbrcoe5?4 yr tk6?444yr

Cgbftcjcnotckf kj spbncbskj òtbrcoe cf tab nosb kjwkkg ofg naornkoe tksakrt ecvbg so`pebs kfey.

2. Osskncotckf kj so`peb ofg

bvbft Cftbr`bgcotb Cftbrprbtotckf kj rbsuets

:. Auòf Cftbr`bgcotbNorb cf jcbeg ofgeomkrotkry


14/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

?7

Cf tbr`s kj prbncsckf, akwbvbr, tab jkr`br cs c`prbncsb cf nk`porcskf tk tab eottbrmbnousb kj tab eorlbr stotbg brrkr voeub. Os suna ct nof mb sbbf taot tab gotb kj?444?2 OG waceb mbcfl aclaey prbncsb cs, cf tacs cfstofnb, cfonnurotb.

]bsbrvkcr Bjjbnts

O Nkfvbftckfoe ]ogcknormkf Olb kr N]O gkbs fkt toib cftk onnkuft spbncjcngcjjbrbfnbs mbtwbbf tab ontcvcty kj gcjjbrbft normkf rbsbrvkcrs. O N]O cs gbrcvbguscfl of olb noenueotckf mosbg upkf tab gbnoy nkrrbntbg ontcvcty kj tab omskeutbrogcknormkf stofgorg (?134 OG wkkg) wacna cs cf bqucecmrcu` wcta ot`kspabrcnrogcknormkf ebvbes (os `bftckfbg prbvckusey, ?134 wkkg cs fk ekflbr usbg os tabprcòry rogcknormkf stofgorg, cfstbog Kxoecn Oncg stofgorgs C ofg CC wbrbnkrrbeotbg wcta tab ontcvcty kj tab krclcfoe stofgorg). Cf krgbr tk osnbrtocf tab olbskj so`pebs wacna wbrb jkr`bg cf bqucecmrcu` wcta gcjjbrbft rbsbrvkcrs tk tabsbòtbrcoes, ct cs fbnbssory tk prkvcgb of olb nkrrbntckf. C`pecnct cf tabNkfvbftckfoe ]ogcknormkf Olb MT cs tab jont taot ct cs fkt oghustbg jkr tacs

nkrrbntckf.

]ogcknormkf so`pebs wacna kmtocf tabcr normkf jrk` o gcjjbrbft skurnb (krrbsbrvkcr) taof ot`kspabrcn normkf òy ycbeg waot cs tbr`bg opporbft olbs. Osabeejcsa oecvb tkgoy cf o eoib wctacf o ec`bstkfb notna`bft, jkr cfstofnb, wcee ycbego rogcknormkf gotb wacna cs bxnbsscvbey keg. Wab rboskf jkr tacs ofkòey cs taottab ec`bstkfb, wacna cs wbotabrbg ofg gcsskevbg cftk mcnormkfotb, aos fkrogckontcvb normkf. Waus, ct gceutbs tab ontcvcty kj tab eoib `bofcfl taot tabrogckontcvcty cs gbpebtbg cf nk`porcskf tk ?7N ontcvcty besbwabrb. Wab eoib, cf tacsnosb, aos o gcjjbrbft rogcknormkf rbsbrvkcr taof taot kj tab òhkrcty kj tabrogcknormkf cf tab mckspabrb ofg tabrbjkrb of onnurotb rogcknormkf olb rbqucrbstaot o nkrrbntckf mb ògb tk onnkuft jkr ct.

Kfb kj tab `kst nk``kfey rbjbrbfnbg rbsbrvkcr bjjbnts nkfnbrfs tab knbof. Wabovbrolb gcjjbrbfnb mbtwbbf o rogcknormkf gotb kj o tbrrbstrcoe so`peb suna os otrbb, ofg o sabee jrk` tab òrcfb bfvcrkf`bft cs omkut 744 rogcknormkf ybors(sbb ^tucvbr ofg Mrozcufos, ?33>). Wacs opporbft olb kj knbofcn wotbr cs nousbgmkta my tab gbeoy cf bxnaoflb rotbs mbtwbbf ot`kspabrcn NK=ofg knbofmcnormkfotb, ofg tab gceutckf bjjbnt nousbg my tab `cxcfl kj surjonb wotbrs wctaupwbeebg gbbp wotbrs wacna orb vbry keg (@oflbrug ?3


15/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

?2

rogcknormkf olb wacna cs tkk keg. Mrufs bt oe. (?314) `bosurbg tab rogckontcvctykj `kgbrf peofts lrkwcfl fbor akt sprcfls abotbg my vkenofcn rknis cf wbstbrfLbròfy ofg gb`kfstrotbg o gbjcncbfny cf rogcknormkf kj up tk ?244 yborstarkula nk`porcskf wcta `kgbrf ot`kspabrcn rogcknormkf ebvbes. ^c`ceorey, tacsbjjbnt aos mbbf fktbg jkr peofts cf tab moy kj Toeobo Io`bfc fbor tab prbacstkrcn

sctb kj Oirktcrc, wacna wos murcbg my tab bruptckf kj tab Wabro vkenofk kvbr >244ybors olk (sbb \bfcflbr, ?313). Wab bjjbnt aos mbbf sullbstbg os prkvcgcflgotbs cf brrkr jkr tab bruptckf kj Wabro wacna aos mbbf ecfibg tk tab gb`csb kjtab @cfkof ncvceczotckf cf tab Oblbof. Kfb `kgbrf peoft lrkwcfl fbor tabbòfotckfs aog of opporbft olb kj ?>34 yr. Wab vkenofcn bjjbnt aos o ec`ctbggcstofnb akwbvbr. Mrufs bt oe. (?314) jkufg taot ot =44 ` owoy jrk` tab skurnb,peofts ycbegbg of olb cf olrbb`bft wcta taot bxpbntbg. Waby sullbstbg taot tabcfjeubfnb kj gbpebtbg NK=gbnecfbg ropcgey wcta cfnrboscfl gcstofnb jrk` tabskurnb. ]ogcknormkf gcsnrbpofncbs gub tk vkenofcn NK=b`cssckfs orb o pkpueorskurnb kj o`ùfctckf jkr jufgo`bftoecst vcbwpkcfts ibbf tk prbsbft bvcgbfnb tksakw taot tab rogcknormkf `btakg cs sk`bakw jufgo`bftoeey jeowbg.

ûbss kr Cfgustr coe Bjjbnt

^cfnb omkut ?134, tab usb kj cfgustrcoe ofg jkssce jubes aos rbsuetbg cf eorlbo`kufts kj NK=mbcfl b`cttbg cftk tab ot`kspabrb. Mbnousb tab skurnb kj tabcfgustrcoe jubes aos mbbf prbgk`cfoftey òtbrcoe kj cfjcfctb lbkeklcnoe olb ( b.l.nkoe, pbtrkebu`), waksb rogcknormkf nkftbft cs fce, tab rogcknormkf ontcvcty kj tabot`kspabrb aos mbbf ekwbrbg cf tab borey port kj tab =4ta nbftury up uftce tab?324s. Wab ot`kspabrcn rogcknormkf sclfoe aos, cf bjjbnt, mbbf gceutbg my omkut=%. Aofs ûbss (?322) gcsnkvbrbg tab cfgustrcoe bjjbnt (oesk noeebg ojtbr ac`) cftab ?324s. O fu`mbr kj rbsbornabrs jkufg taot tab ontcvcty taby bxpbntbg jrk`òtbrcoe lrkwcfl scfnb ?134 OG wos ekwbr. Wab eklcnoe nkfneusckf jrk` tacs wostaot cf krgbr tk kmtocf o `kgbrf rogcknormkf rbjbrbfnb stofgorg, rbprbsbftcfl tabrogcknormkf ontcvcty kj tab 'prbsbft goy', kfb nkueg fkt vbry wbee usb wkkg wacnalrbw cf tab ?344s scfnb ct wos ojjbntbg my tacs cfgustrcoe bjjbnt. Waus ct wos taot?134 wkkg wos usbg os tab `kgbrf rogcknormkf stofgorg, bxtropkeotbg jkrgbnoy tk ?324 OG.

Otk` Mk`m Bjjbnt

^cfnb omkut ?322, tabr`kfunebor tbsts aovb oggbg nkfscgbromey tk tab ?7Not`kspabrcn rbsbrvkcr. Wacs ?7N cs 'ortcjcncoe' kr 'mk`m' ?7N, prkgunbg mbnousbfunebor mk`ms prkgunb o aulb tabròe fbutrkf jeux. Wab bjjbnt kj tacs aos mbbftk oe`kst gkumeb tab o`kuft kj ?7N ontcvcty cf tbrrbstrcoe normkf mborcfl òtbrcoes(Woyekr, ?31 (cf tab skutabrf ab`cspabrb orkufg ?3:2) ot omkut ?44% omkvbfkròe ebvbes. ^cfnb taot tc`b tab o`kuft aos gbnecfbg kwcfl tk bxnaoflb ofg


16/16

Mbto Ofoeytcn

?:

gcspbrsoe kj ?7N cftk tab borta's normkf nyneb systb`. Wab prbsbfnb kj mk`mnormkf cf tab borta's mckspabrb aos bfomebg ct tk mb usbg os o tronbr tkcfvbstclotb tab `bnaofcns kj normkf `cxcfl ofg bxnaoflb prknbssbs.

beta ams methodology

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